Despite the Braves' 2017 bonus trimming scandal as well as trades for guys like Kevin Gausman, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon, they retain one of the strongest systems in the majors on the backs of their excellent pitching and outfield depth. On the mound, there's a whole slew of big league ready arms in Kyle Wright, Ian Anderson, Bryce Wilson, Tucker Davidson, and co., and their group of young outfielders might be the best in the game – defensive wizard Cristian Pache and the all-around Drew Waters are ready to join Ronald Acuna in arguably the most exciting young outfield in the game, while guys like Greyson Jenista, Trey Harris, Justin Dean, and Michael Harris provide a nice second wave a bit lower down. They also have a pair of nice catchers in Shea Langeliers and William Contreras, but the one place this system seems a bit shallower is in the infield, where Braden Shewmake looks like the only legitimate impact prospect. Now, the repercussions from that 2017 scandal can be seen a bit in the lower minors, where the Braves are a bit shallower than in the upper minors, but there's so much talent closer to the big leagues that that isn't really a problem yet.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Stripers, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, complex level GCL and DSL Braves
Catcher
- Alex Jackson (2020 Age: 24): The sixth overall pick of the 2014 draft out of high school in the San Diego area, Jackson came over from the Mariners in the Max Povse/Rob Whalen deal of 2016 and in 2019 he hit .229/.313/.533 with 28 home runs and a 118/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AAA Gwinnett and was hitless in 13 major league at bats. Jackson has a ton of power, but not much else. He struggles with contact and strikes out a lot, and he's just barely passable behind the plate. Based on the power alone, he should be the first man up if either Travis d'Arnaud or Tyler Flowers gets hurt, though he'll never be a full time starter behind the plate – if he somehow taps his power enough to warrant a starting role, he'll probably be moved to the outfield.
- William Contreras (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, William has a shot to be the Braves' catcher of the future and he slashed .255/.315/.354 with six home runs and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi in 2019. That was a small step back from his 2018 numbers (.285/.347/.436, 11 HR), but he was also a 21 year old catcher reaching the upper minors, so there's a lot of slack to give. He puts the bat on the ball really easily, which gives him a high floor, and he's developed some power as he's matured. A sound defender behind the plate, it's currently more of a backup profile than that of a true starter, but he's young enough and a competent enough hitter that he could conceivably tap a little more power and change that.
- Shea Langeliers (2020 Age: 22): Contreras will have to earn that starting spot, because coming up right behind him is Shea Langeliers, who was the ninth overall pick out of Baylor in 2019. Aggressively pushed to Class A Rome in his debut, he slashed .255/.310/.343 with a pair of home runs and a 55/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, though he was hitting better towards the end of the season as he gained his footing. Langeliers has some power in his right handed swing, and with solid average plate discipline, he projects as an average hitter overall. That's okay, because the Braves drafted him for his glove. It's just about impossible to run on Langeliers and his cannon arm, and he adds exceptional receiving skills behind the plate too, giving him Gold Glove potential back there. So if he hits at all, that will be enough. Langeliers is also a big time asset because this organization loves to draft and develop young pitching, and having a guy like Langeliers to work with those kids could be huge.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Brown
Corner Infield
- Bryce Ball (2020 Age: 21-22): If there's one place where this system isn't deep, it's in the corner infield, but that's the place where you're the most okay with not having a ton of prospects. Last year, the Braves picked up third baseman CJ Alexander in the 20th round and he hit .352/.429/.495 in his pro debut before dropping to .117/.245/.180 this year (yikes), but Bryce Ball finds himself in a very similar spot to where Alexander was a year ago. The Braves took Ball in the 24th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2019, and he went on to absolutely obliterate opposing pitchers in his pro debut by slashing .329/.395/.628 with 17 home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At a hulking 6'6" and 235 pounds, Ball is limited to first base, but with the way he hit in his pro debut, that might not be a problem. He has tremendous raw power to all fields, and he got to it consistently both in the Appalachian League and in the more advanced South Atlantic League, though higher level pitching began to expose his approach just a little bit. I'm really interested to see what he does in his first full season in 2020, where he won't turn 22 until July since he was young for his class, and he could make himself a legitimate power prospect in a hurry.
- Keep an eye on: CJ Alexander
Middle Infield
- Wendell Rijo (2020 Age: 24): For someone who is set to play all of 2020 at just 24 years old, Rijo has been around the block and then some. He originally signed with the Red Sox out of the Dominican Republic for $625,000 in 2012, then was traded to Milwaukee for Aaron Hill in 2016. In 2018, it was on to the Yankees, and in 2019, the Braves picked him up in the AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, which only forces him to stick on the AAA roster, not the major league one. This past season, he slashed .258/.325/.438 with 13 home runs and an 89/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games between High A, AA, and AAA, showing an all-around, ready-now, utility infield profile. He doesn't have much power but is adept enough at making regular, hard contact to hit for decent averages in the majors. He makes up for a weaker arm with good defense in the infield, and while second base is his most natural position, he can handle shortstop or third base if needed. The Braves aren't too deep in the infield at the major league level, so he has a good shot to hit his way into a utility role at some point in 2020.
- Braden Shewmake (2020 Age: 22): The Braves took Shewmake in the first round out of Texas A&M in 2019, and he rewarded them by slashing .300/.371/.425 with three home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at Class A Rome and AA Mississippi. The Braves drafted Shewmake for his advanced bat, and he didn't disappoint by handling the strike zone extremely well and finding the barrel consistently in that pro debut. He's a lanky 6'4", but it remains to be seen whether he taps any power. He's a solid enough defender, performing adequately at shortstop, though he'll likely move over to second base in the future. That's a utility infield projection at worst, though it may be tough for him to break into that middle infield between Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies as a starter. He could end up sliding to third base, where the Braves don't have a clear long term answer, though his bat might be just a bit stretched there. The overall offensive projection is probably 5-15 home runs annually, depending on how much power he taps, with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases.
- Beau Philip (2020 Age: 21): Philip, a second round pick out of Oregon State in 2019, is more of an upside play than a safe bet, especially for a day one college draftee. A community college transfer who missed some time in the spring with hamstring problems, we only got to see him for 44 games at the Division I level and he struggled in his pro debut, slashing .193/.297/.280 with four home runs and a 51/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at rookie level Danville. Fortunately, he was very young for a college draftee and will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, giving him additional time to tap into his considerable talent. He packs a little bit of power into his 6' frame and was consistently finding the gaps in college, though it looks like he'll need to refine his approach a bit to continue to do so in pro ball. He's a competent defender that should be able to handle shortstop and he has a utility infield profile if it all clicks, but he does have the potential to surprise us and become more.
- Keep an eye on: Riley Unroe, Riley Delgado, AJ Graffanino, Greg Cullen, Vaughn Grissom
Outfield
- Cristian Pache (2020 Age: 21): Pache has always been a truly elite defender, but the book on him used to be "if he can hit at all, he'll be a valuable player." Formerly a light hitting teenager who went homerless in his first two pro seasons, he began to "hit at all" in 2018 when he slashed .279/.307/.410 in High A and AA, and he continued that over to 2019 when he slashed .277/.340/.462 with 12 home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 122/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. With Pache, everything begins with his defense. Between his speed, arm, and instincts, I don't think it gets much better, and I don't think Braves fans have seen anything like it since Andruw Jones. At the plate, he has plenty of wiry strength but he used to be a gap hitter – now, he's learning to drive the ball more and in addition to his 12 home runs in 2019, he hit 36 doubles and nine triples. Set to play all of 2020 at just 21 years old, a couple weeks younger than Juan Soto, he could conceivably turn some of those doubles and triples into home runs as he continues to grow, and while he projects for about 10-15 home runs a season for now, he could bump that number up to 15-20. Pache also controls the zone well enough to post decent on-base percentages, and he'll probably push Ender Inciarte out of the center field spot at some point in 2020.
- Drew Waters (2020 Age: 21): I've been a big fan of Waters as a prospect ever since he was at Etowah High School in Woodstock, and his hometown Braves picked him up in the second round in 2017. He's hit everywhere he's gone while the Braves have pushed him aggressively, and in 2019 he slashed .309/.360/.459 with seven home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 164/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 games at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett. To me, it's a really interesting profile with a lot to pick apart. The switch hitter is a free swinger with an explosive swing from both sides of the plate, and while that has led to ugly K/BB numbers, he's also been very young for the levels he's played and and he'll spend all of 2020 at 21 years old. It also hasn't inhibited his ability to make consistent hard contact, as he's hit 79 doubles and 18 triples over the past two seasons – that is a LOT. A line drive-oriented approach has kept him from tapping into his home run power in games, with just 20 home runs in 298 career minor league games, though I think he'll begin to tap it as his plate discipline catches up with his feel for the barrel, and he could hit 15-20 a year. Waters is also a gifted defender who has the ability to stick in center field and be an asset, but with Mr. Pache already polishing his Gold Gloves in his mind, Waters will probably end up at a corner, and most likely unseating Nick Markakis at some point in 2020. Get excited for that Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield, it's going to be fun.
- Greyson Jenista (2020 Age: 23): Jenista was a second round pick out of Wichita State in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .233/.318/.349 with nine home runs and a 145/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. It was a bit of a disappointing season after a strong pro debut in 2018, and with the aforementioned Acuna-Pache-Waters outfield of the future in Atlanta, it's hard to see him finding a starting spot. That said, Jenista is a very competent hitter with a patient approach and a track record of hitting, though he's had a difficult time tapping the considerable raw power in his 6'3" frame and explosive swing. Perhaps allowing him to repeat AA in his age-23 season in 2020 could help him get back on his feet as a hitter, and if it all clicks he could be one of the better fourth outfielders in the game as an all-around contributor.
- Trey Harris (2020 Age: 24): Drew Waters isn't the only Atlanta native trying to work his way into the Braves outfield. Harris graduated from McEachern High School in Powder Springs before attending Missouri, where he had an unremarkable career and ended up an unheralded 32nd round pick in 2018. However, he's opened a lot of eyes with an excellent first full season in 2019, where he slashed .323/.389/.498 with 14 home runs and a 91/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. Always one of the shortest guys on the field at 5'8", Harris packs a lot of strength into his stocky frame and uses an explosive swing to generate good power, and his great feel for the barrel enables it to play above average in games. While he doesn't walk a whole lot, he avoids strikeouts very well for a 5'8" kid swinging for the fences, giving him the opportunity to continue producing as he works through the upper minors and eventually into the majors. An average defender, he's like Jenista in that he'll have a tough time breaking into the starting three in that outfield, but he's also put himself in a great position to counter Jenista's left handed bat with his right handed bat as a bench option down the line.
- Justin Dean (2020 Age: 23): Dean is a semi-hometown player who grew up in Mauldin, which is in the Greenville, South Carolina area, and the Braves drafted him in the 17th round out of Lenoir-Rhyne University in North Carolina in 2018. He's rewarded them so far, and in 2019 he slashed .284/.386/.431 with nine home runs, 47 stolen bases, and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Rome. The one guy on the field smaller than Trey Harris, Dean stands just 5'6", but he plays a lot bigger. His elite speed is his best attribute, but his patient approach at the plate and natural feel for finding the barrel enable him to utilize it often. He's unlikely to ever be a full time starter in Atlanta, but his combination of speed and gap power make him a really intriguing option as a fourth outfielder down the line. In order to get there, he'll have to cut down on his swing and miss a bit.
- Michael Harris (2020 Age: 19): Make that three young outfielders from the ATL trying to work their way into the Braves outfield – Harris, of no relation to Trey, attended Stockbridge High School in the southern suburbs and was drafted in the third round in 2019. Considered a bit of a project at the time he was drafted, he tore through the complex level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut and slashed .349/.403/.514 with a pair of home runs, five stolen bases, and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. That was enough to skip over rookie level Danville entirely and head straight to Class A Rome, where he slumped a bit with a .183/.269/.232 line, three stolen bases, and a 22/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 22 games. Even with the tough run through Class A, it's a very successful debut for a kid who was supposed to take some time to adjust, and because he'll only turn 19 in spring training, he comes with really high upside. Harris is more of a slap hitter for now, but there's enough strength in his 6' frame and quickness in his left handed swing (it looks like the Braves have had him give up switch hitting) to project some power down the road. Combined with his speed and defense, he's a sleeper to become a real contributor in Atlanta, though there's a ton of outfield depth in this system and he has a lot of guys to overtake in the depth chart.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Nelsony, Jefrey Ramos, Stephen Paolini
Starting Pitching
- Kyle Wright (2020 Age: 24): It feels weird to say someone is "somehow still a prospect" when he was only drafted in 2017, but it feels that way for Wright, the fifth overall pick out of Vanderbilt that year. Somewhat of a hometown guy having grown up just north of Huntsville, Alabama, Wright raced through the minors and reached the majors in 2018, though he spent most of 2019 at AAA Gwinnett and posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings. Between two major league stints, he has a 7.71 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP, and a 23/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings, and the Braves are obviously still patiently waiting for him to break through. Wright is incredibly talented, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and adding two distinct, swing and miss breaking balls in a curve and a slider, as well as a changeup that has taken a step forward in pro ball and become a weapon. At this point his control (throwing strikes) is ahead of his command (locating his pitches within the zone), which has caused him to get hit much harder in the majors than his stuff dictates he should. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 24 years old, but Wright has not made that last jump to truly executing the nuances of the game that separates the good from the great pitchers. We'll try again in 2020 – I'd project the 6'4" righty more as a #3 starter than an ace at this point, but really any outcome is still possible.
- Bryse Wilson (2020 Age: 22): Another southerner, Wilson grew up in Hillsborough near Durham, North Carolina, and like Wright he remains rookie eligible despite reaching the majors in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 3.42 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 118/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AAA Gwinnett, and between his two short stints in the majors, he has a 7.00 ERA and a 22/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. Standing a stocky 6'1", Wilson is a power arm that tosses a low to mid 90's fastball while adding a tight slider and a changeup, all of which he can command decently well. He hasn't been quite consistent enough with that breaking ball or his command to stick in the majors just yet, but a few minor adjustments will help the 22 year old get to where he needs to be. Ultimately, he lacks the ceiling of some of the other arms in this system, but he profiles well as a #4 or #5 guy who can eat innings effectively.
- Ian Anderson (2020 Age: 21-22): Anderson was the third overall pick in 2016 out of high school in the Albany, New York area, and he's pitched extremely effectively while he's climbed the minors more slowly than most Braves arms, whom they tend to push aggressively. In 2019, Anderson posted a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, though he was much more effective at the lower level (2.68 ERA, 147/47 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.57, 25/18). The 6'3" righty has seen Wright and Wilson struggle to stick in the majors to this point, and both he and the Braves are hoping that isn't the case this time. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a plus curveball with hard, downward break, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a good changeup that gives him a third weapon, and while his command can waver, it didn't prove to be an issue at all until he reached AAA in 2019. I'm pretty confident in his stuff, so the key to avoiding the bumpy starts experienced by Wright and Wilson will be his command and whether he can hit his spots enough to keep the ball off major league barrels. Regardless, he's very young and won't turn 22 until May, so even if it takes him a year or two to figure it out, he finds himself in a great position to become a future #2 or #3 starter.
- Tucker Davidson (2020 Age: 24): The Braves picked up Davidson in the 19th round in 2016 out of the West Texas junior college ranks, and that's turned out to be an extremely savvy move. Davidson broke out in 2019 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 134/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, as his secondary stuff has gotten more consistent. The 6'2" lefty gets good angle on his low to mid 90's fastball, and his curveball has started to bite more while his changeup looks like an average pitch. The command is slowly ticking in the right direction as well, looking average at this point, and together it's painting a back-end starter picture in the near future. There are a few names ahead of him for the open 2020 rotation spots, but a strong spring and continued strong performance in AAA to start the season could get him some looks this year.
- Kyle Muller (2020 Age: 22): Muller was the Braves' second round pick out of a Dallas high school in 2016, one round after Anderson, and he looks like he's starting to figure it out. The 6'6" lefty put up a 3.14 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 120/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings at AA Mississippi in 2019, coming in with a lot of similarities to Anderson. A bit taller and broader, Muller also has a low to mid 90's fastball, though his curve and changeup are a bit lighter than Anderson's. He does get good downer action on that curveball, but it doesn't flash plus as often as Anderson's, and his command is a bit shakier. Given those command problems, he'll probably join Wilson as a #4 or #5 starter in the long run, though he does have the stuff to be more of a #3 if he can lock down the strike zone a bit better. Given the starting pitching depth in this system, there's also a non-zero chance he ends up as a power fastball/curveball lefty reliever in the long run.
- Jasseel De La Cruz (2020 Age: 22-23): Originally signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015, De La Cruz has always had upside but he finally began to make real progress towards it in 2019, when he had a 3.25 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 121/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at Class A Rome, High A Florida, and AA Mississippi. The 6'1" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball that can seem to get on hitters quicker than that, and he's gotten more consistent with his slider, changeup, and command in 2019. That said, given the depth of starting pitching in this system, the overall package remains just a bit light for De La Cruz to have more than a 50/50 shot at starting at this point, so further refinement overall is still needed. The good news is that he certainly took a step in the right direction in 2019 as he found his arm slot and release point more consistently, and he's young enough that he could still make the necessary adjustments to become a useful starter.
- Freddy Tarnok (2020 Age: 21): Tarnok was a high risk, high upside third round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, and he's shown mixed results in pro ball while maintaining that high ceiling. In 2019, he put up a 4.75 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 innings between High A Florida and some complex level rehab work, which isn't too shabby for a kid who's only been pitching for a couple of years. The Braves love Tarnok's loose athleticism and projectable 6'3" frame, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a nice curve with some depth as well as a changeup. Tarnok needs to sharpen those offspeed pitches a bit further, and his command remains fringe-average, so further refinement is certainly needed. He's still young, set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, and he's on enough of an upward trajectory that the Braves are confident he'll be able to make those adjustments. He still comes with the same risk/reward profile he had as a high schooler, but he's further along down the line and has significant development under his belt at this point.
- Ricky DeVito (2020 Age: 21): DeVito was up and down during his time at Seton Hall, and the Braves pounced in the eighth round in 2019 to see if they can straighten him out. In his pro debut, DeVito posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at rookie level Danville and Class A Rome. At his best, he throws a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a solid changeup with average command, giving him the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. However, frequently in 2019, he threw closer to 90 and his secondary stuff flattened out a bit while his command wavered. Mechanical inconsistency was likely a major factor, and the Braves, who are no strangers to developing young pitching, will look to get that ironed out first. DeVito was young for a college junior and won't turn 22 until the end of the 2020 season, giving the Braves a little extra time to tinker with him, but ultimately there's reliever risk here if he doesn't get significantly more consistent with his stuff.
- Jose Olague (2020 Age: 21): Here is a deep sleeper for you. Olague was an under the radar signing out of Mexico in 2017, and he pitched well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 before skipping straight over the Gulf Coast League as well as the Appalachian League. Heading straight to Class A Rome in 2019, Olague responded well with a 4.02 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings. That scouting report says it all, as Olague is an extreme pitch to contact type of pitcher who gets his outs by generating weak contact on pitchers' pitches. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a couple breaking balls, but he places them right where he wants them and is adept at avoiding barrels. He'll have a really small margin for error going forward, but it will be interesting to see if he can add any velocity or sharpen any of his secondary stuff and emerge as a legitimate starting pitching candidate.
- Keep an eye on: Nolan Kingham, Hayden Deal, Odalvi Javier, Alan Rangel
Relief Pitching
- Huascar Ynoa (2020 Age: 21-22): Originally a Twins prospect, Ynoa came over in the Jaime Garcia deal in 2017 and finally reached the bigs in 2019. Overall, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 110/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings between High A Florida, AA Mississippi, and AAA Gwinnett, though his two big league outings included a strong performance against the Twins and a nightmare one in Milwaukee. Developed as a starter to this point, his future is most likely in the bullpen, where he can hope for a velocity bump and more consistent secondaries. Ynoa already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which seems to jump out of his hand, and he has some nice finish on his slider and changeup. The command has wavered significantly, so the hope is that will matter less if he moves to the bullpen and dials his fastball consistently into the mid 90's and sharpens his slider a bit. A successful transition could make him an important part of the Atlanta bullpen in 2020.
- Patrick Weigel (2020 Age: 25-26): It's been a long time coming for Weigel, who was a seventh round pick out of Houston in 2014, but he's finally knocking on the door to the majors. In 2019, returning from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.73 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 71/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He'll probably fit better in the latter going forward, where his low to mid 90's fastball sees a nice bump towards the mid to upper 90's and he can focus on one of his two decent breaking balls. At 6'6' and 240 pounds, his imposing presence will also work well in that role, and he could be a multi-inning weapon in the near future, though likely not a closer.
- Daysbel Hernandez (2020 Age: 23): Hernandez stands at a stocky 5'10", but that doesn't stop him from overpowering hitters. In 2019, the Cuban defector posted a 1.71 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings at High A Florida, mostly on the strength of a hard running, mid to upper 90's fastball. That alone was too much for Florida State League hitters to handle in 2019, but the key going forward will be further refining his hard slider that stands out more for its upper 80's velocity than its actual movement. He also shows a solid changeup, but he doesn't use it much in games. His command is also improving, and in the end he profiles as a middle reliever with set-up upside.
- Kasey Kalich (2020 Age: 22): The Braves picked Kalich up out of Texas A&M in the fourth round in 2019, three rounds after his teammate Braden Shewmake, and he had a strong pro debut with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, mostly at Class A Rome. The 6'3" righty should move quickly on the back of his mid 90's fastball and improving slider. He's got the velocity, so sharpening that slider just a bit more while continuing to remain around the zone will be the keys to fulfilling that quick-mover projection. If it all goes right, he could be up in the bigs by 2021 as a potential set-up man.
- Keep an eye on: Thomas Burrows, Kurt Hoekstra, Troy Bacon, Trey Riley, Ryan Shetter, Victor Vodnik, Tyler Owens
Showing posts with label Drew Waters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Drew Waters. Show all posts
Monday, January 20, 2020
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Reviewing the Atlanta Braves Farm System
Despite a bonus scandal that cost them Kevin Maitan and a slew of other prospects as well as severe restrictions on international signing, the Braves' farm system remains one of the best in baseball. Their collection of pitching is unmatched anywhere in the game, and it could be the best group of young pitchers in recent memory. The Braves also have a great group of hitters at various positions at their disposal, and the newly-contending major league club is very happy that the majority of their best prospects are closer, not further, from the majors.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Braves, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, and complex level GCL and DSL Braves
MLB-Ready Pitchers: RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Kyle Wright, RHP Touki Toussaint, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Bryse Wilson, and LHP Luiz Gohara
This is the core of the Braves' farm system, and honestly, it is probably the most loaded individual section of any of these thirty farm system reviews that I'm writing. The Braves have so much young pitching ready to make the MLB roster that they will be able to include some serious top prospects in trade negotiations in 2019 and not break a sweat. 21 year old Mike Soroka would be the best prospect in this group if he were healthy, though unfortunately that is not the case. Soroka posted a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings between Class A Rome and AAA Gwinnett, as well as a 3.51 ERA and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 major league innings, but he missed time with shoulder trouble and has again been feeling shoulder discomfort during spring training. He's a 6'5" Canadian righty, but rather than throw hard, he lives on his exceptional command and pitchability. Soroka sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, but he is so adept at mixing his pitches and hitting his spots that everything plays up and that he has earned a comparison or two to Greg Maddux. Even without high strikeout totals, Soroka has ace or #2 upside, and if healthy, he could be an impact starter and NL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2019. 23 year old Kyle Wright was the Braves' first round pick (fifth overall) in 2017 out of Vanderbilt, and he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 133/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 138 innings between AA Mississippi and Gwinnett, following that up with a 4.50 ERA and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio over six major league innings. Wright is a 6'4" righty with some of the best stuff in the system, throwing in the mid 90's and adding an exceptional array of secondaries, including two distinct breaking balls in a great curveball and a very good slider which can both miss bats and a changeup that has made a lot of progress. He's inconsistent with his command, though, and when it fails him, he can get hit hard. Throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count will be the key for him if he wants to reach his ace upside, but he still has a very high floor as a #3 or #4 starter who can compete in 2019. 22 year old Touki Toussaint came over from the Diamondbacks for Bronson Arroyo in 2015, and when the Braves traded for Dansby Swanson six months later, that put Arizona's first round picks from 2014 and 2015 both in the Atlanta system. Toussaint, the 16th overall pick of the 2014 draft out of a South Florida high school, rebounded from a rough 2017 (4.53 ERA, 167/64 K/BB) to post a huge season with a 2.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 163/53 strikeout to walk ratio in 136.1 innings between Mississippi and Gwinnett, then put up a 4.03 ERA and a 32/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 major league innings. He is a 6'3" righty with an electric arm, one that pumps fastballs consistently in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss curveball, and his command has steadily improved throughout his pro career. 2018 must have been the tipping point because he finally broke out, and he could be a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues if he can continue to improve that command. If not, his stuff is good enough to make him a solid back-end starter even without command, and he could also thrive as a fastball/curveball righty in the bullpen. 21 year old Kolby Allard, the Braves' first round pick (14th overall) in 2015 out of a Southern California high school, posted a 2.72 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings at Gwinnett in 2018, then put up a 12.38 ERA and a 3/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight major league innings. He sits right around 90 with his fastball but adds a great curveball and changeup, and his solid command helps everything play up. Still, he has some tweener risk and might end up more of a #4 or #5 starter rather than a mid-rotation guy. Further improving his command could help him reach that #3 upside, but we'll have to see how his extended major league trial goes in 2019. 21 year old Bryse Wilson took just two years to make the majors after being drafted in the fourth round out of a North Carolina high school in 2016, though he is admittedly not quite as refined as Soroka, Wright, Allard, or even Toussaint. The 6'1" righty posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings between High A Florida, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, showing a low 90's fastball, a decent slider, and good enough command to make his stuff play up. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other arms on this list but he should be a very productive #3 or #4 starter in the near future who can eat plenty of innings. Lastly, 22 year old Luiz Gohara was widely considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball after the 2017 season (2.62 ERA, 147/44 K/BB), but his 2018 season was about as trying a season as any player could have. His father died during the offseason and his mother had significant heart surgery which forced him to leave the team briefly in May to visit her in Brazil, and he also dealt with an ankle injury and weight gain, reportedly reaching nearly 315 pounds. He's in better shape now (reportedly down to 270 pounds) but has reportedly dealt with shoulder soreness in spring training, but he will look to erase a 2018 where he posted a 4.81 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 59/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Mississippi and Gwinnett (plus a 5.95 ERA and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings). Gohara is a 6'3" lefty that has elicited comparisons to C.C. Sabathia due to his body type and velocity, sitting in the upper 90's while adding a nasty slider when in his pre-2018 form. He has been a bit more inconsistent with his command, but hopefully a smoother ride in 2019 will help him improve there and fulfill his potential as a mid-rotation starter, though the shoulder issues are troubling.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Ian Anderson, LHP Joey Wentz, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Huascar Ynoa, LHP Thomas Burrows, and RHP Patrick Weigel
The Braves' aren't quite as deep in the middle of their system, but that is natural given the way they tend to develop pitching and they still have a great group of arms in the next wave. This group comes heavily from the 2016 draft and also features a lot of left handers (lefty Tucker Davidson just missed this section), which can back up the mostly right-handed current wave (see above). 20 year old Ian Anderson signed an under-slot deal as the third overall pick of the 2016 draft out of high school near Albany, New York, and he had a breakout 2018 by posting a 2.49 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. Anderson has a mid 90's fastball and a solid curveball/changeup set, and with his command improving steadily as he has developed, and further development along his current track could make him a #2 starter. As it stands, Anderson has a very good shot to end up a mid-rotation starter with the possibility for more. 21 year old Joey Wentz was a competitive balance pick (40th overall) in the same 2016 draft as Anderson, coming out of a high school in the Kansas City area. Wentz posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 53/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at Florida in 2018, missing time with injuries along the way. The 6'5" lefty has a low 90's fastball when healthy and solid secondary stuff, though his projectable frame hasn't yielded quite as much extra velocity as was hoped when he was drafted and his stuff flattened out at times in 2018. He'll have to get more consistent with, well, everything in 2018 if he doesn't want to get lost in the massive group of starting pitchers in the system, but he maintains high upside and he's certainly worth following in 2019, though he does run reliever risk at this point. 21 year old Kyle Muller, the Braves' second round pick (44th overall) out of a Dallas high school in that same 2016 draft, moved ahead of Wentz this year by posting a 3.03 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings at Class A Rome, Florida, and Mississippi. He's a big 6'6" lefty with a low 90's fastball and pretty good secondary stuff, though like Wentz, he has been inconsistent in pro ball. He seemed to right the ship a bit in 2018, and the Braves are hoping for even more of a breakout in 2019 if he can put everything together. Wentz and Muller both have a lot to prove in 2019, retaining high upside as tall lefties with powerful arms. 20 year old Huascar Ynoa, over from the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, posted a 4.56 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 131/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.1 innings between Rome and Florida in 2018, though he was much better at the lower level (3.63 ERA, 100/42 K/BB) than the upper level (8.03 ERA, 31/12 K/BB). Ynoa is a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball that enabled him to succeed in Class A, though his lack of secondary stuff and control were exposed when he reached High A. He's a raw talent with plenty of upside and arm strength, though he might take a bit longer to reach the majors than the other names on this list and carries a lot more risk. On the bright side, he doesn't turn 21 until May. 24 year old Thomas Burrows was actually the Mariners' fourth round pick in the same 2016 draft as all the above players (minus Ynoa), having been taken eight picks after Bryse Wilson and coming over to Atlanta with Luiz Gohara in the Mallex Smith trade. Burrows, out of the University of Alabama, is strictly a reliever and posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 86/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi in 2018, showing a major league ready fastball/slider combination. He throws from a low, almost sidearm release point, giving him added deception and making his stuff play up. The 6'1" lefty needs to work on his command, which will be the difference between him being a middle reliever or something more. Lastly, 24 year old Patrick Weigel became one of the Braves' top prospects after a huge 2016 season (2.47 ERA, 152/55 K/BB) but struggled when promoted to AAA in 2017 and hurt his elbow, missing the rest of that season and almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery (he did return to throw four shutout innings in complex ball). Weigel has a low to mid 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, though none stand out as true swing-and-miss pitches and he'll have to rely on mixing his pitches to be an effective starter. The surgery caused him to fall behind the hoard of pitching prospects who made strides in 2018, but he has a shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the near future.
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Alan Rangel, RHP Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP Tristan Beck, RHP Trey Riley
While the upper minors boast nothing but headliners and the mid minors carry guys like Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, and Joey Wentz, the low minors don't quite have a headliner, and that's partially due to the failure of the team to sign 2018 eighth overall pick Carter Stewart, a fireballing 6'6" righty with a power curve. This group consists of five pitchers with the potential to break out in 2019, led by 20 year old Freddy Tarnok. A third rounder (80th overall) in 2017 out of high school near Tampa, Tarnok posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an 83/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at Class A Rome as the Braves worked to transition him from the bullpen to the rotation in 2018. The results weren't great (1.26 ERA, 49/24 K/BB as a reliever vs 6.26 ERA, 34/17 K/BB as a starter), but the 6'3" righty is extremely projectable and already easily sits in the low 90's. His secondary stuff, command, and general durability all need work, but he's also relatively new to pitching and the Braves think they can transform him into a mid-rotation starter. Behind him, 21 year olds Alan Rangel and Jasseel De La Cruz couldn't be more different as pitchers despite being teammates throughout 2018. Rangel posted a 4.09 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at Rome, while De La Cruz had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 65/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings at the same level. Rangel is a pitchability righty who relies on his strong secondary stuff and his command to get by, while De La Cruz blows his low to mid 90's fastball by hitters with little in the way of secondaries or command. In that sense, De La Cruz is more of a similar pitcher to Tarnok, while Rangel has a little bit of Mike Soroka in him (although obviously not on the same level). Personally, I like Rangel just a bit more due to the success that Soroka had in this system, but De La Cruz definitely has the higher upside and could blow past Rangel with some mechanical adjustments. 22 year old Tristan Beck was a fourth round pick out of Stanford in 2018, tossing 4.2 shutout innings while striking out seven and walking two over 4.1 complex level innings afterwards. Beck figured to be a first round draft pick as a sophomore in 2017, but a back injury forced him out for the entire season and he came back with slightly diminished stuff in 2018, causing him to fall to the fourth round (though he still signed above-slot). Beck is a projectable 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, an inconsistent curveball that looked better in 2016 than it did in 2018, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. If he can stay healthy and the Braves can get him back to spinning that curveball effectively, he has high upside as a #2 or #3 starter due to his feel for pitching, but he also has a lot of questions to answer for someone who will be 23 in June. Lastly, 20 year old Trey Riley was a fifth round pick out of an Illinois junior college in 2018, then posted an 8.00 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and a 13/10 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings at rookie level Danville. The Braves envision Riley as a starter, though he has a ton of work to do if that is to happen. He currently sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nasty slider, but he struggles to throw strikes, throws with effort, and lacks a changeup at this point. I feel that he is destined for the bullpen in this deep system, where he could sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and use that slider as a true swing and miss pitch regularly. Still, he'll have to answer the command question and learn to throw strikes.
The Hitters: 3B Austin Riley, OF Cristian Pache, UT Travis Demeritte, OF Drew Waters, OF Greyson Jenista, C William Contreras, and 3B CJ Alexander
While the Braves' position player depth isn't nearly as extensive as its pitching depth, they still have a solid group of guys that includes quite a few impact players. 21 year old Austin Riley, a former competitive balance pick (41st overall) out of a Memphis-area high school in 2015, is the best hitter, having slashed .294/.360/.522 with 19 home runs and a 129/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Mississippi, AAA Gwinnett, and complex level rehab. He has plenty of power and also added 30 doubles in 2018, and he could be a consistent 25-30 home run bat in the majors. His plate discipline seemingly could use some work, but he has continued to produce with every promotion and it may not end up hindering him in the majors. Josh Donaldson is the place holder at third base for now, but look for Riley to break in at some point during 2019 before taking over as the full-time starting third baseman in 2020, where he could be an All Star. While Riley has the superior bat, 20 year old Cristian Pache is inarguably the most exciting position-playing prospect in this system. In 2018, the Dominican outfielder slashed .279/.307/.410 with nine home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 97/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Florida and Mississippi, the nine home runs being a very pleasant surprise after he went homerless in 2016 and 2017. However, Pache is really known for his defense, as he might be the best defensive center fielder in the minors with his blazing speed, great range, and terrific arm. It's not often that you get players with that kind of defensive package, as great defenders typically pair a cannon arm with average range or a decent arm with terrific range. Offensively, Pache proved himself against High A pitching in 2018 (.285/.311/.431) and only turned 20 over the offseason, so while he's never expected to be a true impact hitter, he should be able to provide more than enough value at the plate to remain in the lineup and give his defense a chance to shine. Offensively, expect a guy who can get on base at a solid rate, steal plenty of bases, and clear the fences occasionally. 24 year old Travis Demeritte, acquired from the Rangers back in 2016, has flashed high upside for a long time but has never quite put it together. In 2018, he slashed .222/.316/.416 with 17 home runs and a 140/57 strikeout to walk ratio at Mississippi, showing more of the same with big time power and trouble getting to it. Long considered a high-risk, high-reward player, he seems to be plateauing at AA and likely takes on more of a super-utility projection at this point, his solid glove giving him the opportunity to handle both the infield and the outfield. Demeritte could put it together in 2019, but that is looking less likely. I was a big fan of now-20 year old Drew Waters during the 2017 draft, where I saw him as a first round talent and the Braves scooped him up in the second round (41st overall) out of an Atlanta-area high school, and I'm still a big fan today. In 2018, his first full season out of high school, Waters slashed .293/.343/.476 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between Class A Rome and Florida, the promotion to High A being something fairly uncommon for high school bats in their first full pro season. He's a wiry outfielder whose outfield defense is ahead of his offense at this point, as he is a great all-around defender with plenty of range and arm strength, kind of like Pache-lite. However, unlike Pache, I think Waters has tremendous upside at the plate as well, his powerful swing from both sides of the plate looking like one that could produce 20-30 home runs per season once he grows into his frame and learns to find the barrel more consistently. I'd like to see him get more patient at the plate and I think he will. 22 year old Greyson Jenista was a second round pick (49th overall) in 2018 out of Wichita State, and he slashed .265/.328/.395 with four home runs and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games between rookie level Danville, Rome, and Florida in his pro debut. He's 6'4" but has a swing that is more line-drive oriented than power oriented, and I think he will really benefit from time in the Braves system as his swing seems like one that easily add that power to me. Defensively, he's solid in right field with a strong arm and decent range, and scouts have spoken highly of his work ethic. I see him as a potential 20-30 homer bat, much like Riley and Waters, though the mechanical changes that would be required to reach that ceiling come with some risk. 21 year old William Contreras (the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras) had a breakout year in 2018 and slashed .285/.347/.436 with eleven home runs and an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games between Rome and Florida, putting together a full season for the first time in his career and showing improved power to boot. He's a very capable defender behind the plate, but unlike most catchers with playable defense, he can hit too, and that makes him very valuable. He still has a lot of work to do in proving that his bat can play in the higher levels of the minors and working to become even better behind the plate, but he's certainly one of the better catching prospects in the game. Lastly, 22 year old CJ Alexander was the Braves' 20th round pick in 2018 out of a Florida junior college, though on talent alone he should have been a top ten rounds pick. He's gotten off to a blazing start in pro ball (much like his younger brother, Blaze, in the Diamondbacks organization) by slashing .352/.429/.495 with two home runs and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games between complex ball, Danville, and Florida. At the State College of Florida, he was better known as a player with big time power who could get a bit too aggressive at the plate, but he flipped the script in pro ball by showing solid plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, finishing with just two home runs in 52 games (plus eight doubles and seven triples). Alexander's ability to consistently barrel the ball up in pro ball and even at High A (.325/.386/.450) bodes well for his chances to break through as one of the team's top hitting prospects. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a solid third baseman despite his decent glove.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Braves, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, and complex level GCL and DSL Braves
MLB-Ready Pitchers: RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Kyle Wright, RHP Touki Toussaint, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Bryse Wilson, and LHP Luiz Gohara
This is the core of the Braves' farm system, and honestly, it is probably the most loaded individual section of any of these thirty farm system reviews that I'm writing. The Braves have so much young pitching ready to make the MLB roster that they will be able to include some serious top prospects in trade negotiations in 2019 and not break a sweat. 21 year old Mike Soroka would be the best prospect in this group if he were healthy, though unfortunately that is not the case. Soroka posted a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings between Class A Rome and AAA Gwinnett, as well as a 3.51 ERA and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 major league innings, but he missed time with shoulder trouble and has again been feeling shoulder discomfort during spring training. He's a 6'5" Canadian righty, but rather than throw hard, he lives on his exceptional command and pitchability. Soroka sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, but he is so adept at mixing his pitches and hitting his spots that everything plays up and that he has earned a comparison or two to Greg Maddux. Even without high strikeout totals, Soroka has ace or #2 upside, and if healthy, he could be an impact starter and NL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2019. 23 year old Kyle Wright was the Braves' first round pick (fifth overall) in 2017 out of Vanderbilt, and he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 133/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 138 innings between AA Mississippi and Gwinnett, following that up with a 4.50 ERA and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio over six major league innings. Wright is a 6'4" righty with some of the best stuff in the system, throwing in the mid 90's and adding an exceptional array of secondaries, including two distinct breaking balls in a great curveball and a very good slider which can both miss bats and a changeup that has made a lot of progress. He's inconsistent with his command, though, and when it fails him, he can get hit hard. Throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count will be the key for him if he wants to reach his ace upside, but he still has a very high floor as a #3 or #4 starter who can compete in 2019. 22 year old Touki Toussaint came over from the Diamondbacks for Bronson Arroyo in 2015, and when the Braves traded for Dansby Swanson six months later, that put Arizona's first round picks from 2014 and 2015 both in the Atlanta system. Toussaint, the 16th overall pick of the 2014 draft out of a South Florida high school, rebounded from a rough 2017 (4.53 ERA, 167/64 K/BB) to post a huge season with a 2.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 163/53 strikeout to walk ratio in 136.1 innings between Mississippi and Gwinnett, then put up a 4.03 ERA and a 32/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 major league innings. He is a 6'3" righty with an electric arm, one that pumps fastballs consistently in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss curveball, and his command has steadily improved throughout his pro career. 2018 must have been the tipping point because he finally broke out, and he could be a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues if he can continue to improve that command. If not, his stuff is good enough to make him a solid back-end starter even without command, and he could also thrive as a fastball/curveball righty in the bullpen. 21 year old Kolby Allard, the Braves' first round pick (14th overall) in 2015 out of a Southern California high school, posted a 2.72 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings at Gwinnett in 2018, then put up a 12.38 ERA and a 3/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight major league innings. He sits right around 90 with his fastball but adds a great curveball and changeup, and his solid command helps everything play up. Still, he has some tweener risk and might end up more of a #4 or #5 starter rather than a mid-rotation guy. Further improving his command could help him reach that #3 upside, but we'll have to see how his extended major league trial goes in 2019. 21 year old Bryse Wilson took just two years to make the majors after being drafted in the fourth round out of a North Carolina high school in 2016, though he is admittedly not quite as refined as Soroka, Wright, Allard, or even Toussaint. The 6'1" righty posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings between High A Florida, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, showing a low 90's fastball, a decent slider, and good enough command to make his stuff play up. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other arms on this list but he should be a very productive #3 or #4 starter in the near future who can eat plenty of innings. Lastly, 22 year old Luiz Gohara was widely considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball after the 2017 season (2.62 ERA, 147/44 K/BB), but his 2018 season was about as trying a season as any player could have. His father died during the offseason and his mother had significant heart surgery which forced him to leave the team briefly in May to visit her in Brazil, and he also dealt with an ankle injury and weight gain, reportedly reaching nearly 315 pounds. He's in better shape now (reportedly down to 270 pounds) but has reportedly dealt with shoulder soreness in spring training, but he will look to erase a 2018 where he posted a 4.81 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 59/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Mississippi and Gwinnett (plus a 5.95 ERA and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings). Gohara is a 6'3" lefty that has elicited comparisons to C.C. Sabathia due to his body type and velocity, sitting in the upper 90's while adding a nasty slider when in his pre-2018 form. He has been a bit more inconsistent with his command, but hopefully a smoother ride in 2019 will help him improve there and fulfill his potential as a mid-rotation starter, though the shoulder issues are troubling.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Ian Anderson, LHP Joey Wentz, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Huascar Ynoa, LHP Thomas Burrows, and RHP Patrick Weigel
The Braves' aren't quite as deep in the middle of their system, but that is natural given the way they tend to develop pitching and they still have a great group of arms in the next wave. This group comes heavily from the 2016 draft and also features a lot of left handers (lefty Tucker Davidson just missed this section), which can back up the mostly right-handed current wave (see above). 20 year old Ian Anderson signed an under-slot deal as the third overall pick of the 2016 draft out of high school near Albany, New York, and he had a breakout 2018 by posting a 2.49 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. Anderson has a mid 90's fastball and a solid curveball/changeup set, and with his command improving steadily as he has developed, and further development along his current track could make him a #2 starter. As it stands, Anderson has a very good shot to end up a mid-rotation starter with the possibility for more. 21 year old Joey Wentz was a competitive balance pick (40th overall) in the same 2016 draft as Anderson, coming out of a high school in the Kansas City area. Wentz posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 53/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at Florida in 2018, missing time with injuries along the way. The 6'5" lefty has a low 90's fastball when healthy and solid secondary stuff, though his projectable frame hasn't yielded quite as much extra velocity as was hoped when he was drafted and his stuff flattened out at times in 2018. He'll have to get more consistent with, well, everything in 2018 if he doesn't want to get lost in the massive group of starting pitchers in the system, but he maintains high upside and he's certainly worth following in 2019, though he does run reliever risk at this point. 21 year old Kyle Muller, the Braves' second round pick (44th overall) out of a Dallas high school in that same 2016 draft, moved ahead of Wentz this year by posting a 3.03 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings at Class A Rome, Florida, and Mississippi. He's a big 6'6" lefty with a low 90's fastball and pretty good secondary stuff, though like Wentz, he has been inconsistent in pro ball. He seemed to right the ship a bit in 2018, and the Braves are hoping for even more of a breakout in 2019 if he can put everything together. Wentz and Muller both have a lot to prove in 2019, retaining high upside as tall lefties with powerful arms. 20 year old Huascar Ynoa, over from the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, posted a 4.56 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 131/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.1 innings between Rome and Florida in 2018, though he was much better at the lower level (3.63 ERA, 100/42 K/BB) than the upper level (8.03 ERA, 31/12 K/BB). Ynoa is a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball that enabled him to succeed in Class A, though his lack of secondary stuff and control were exposed when he reached High A. He's a raw talent with plenty of upside and arm strength, though he might take a bit longer to reach the majors than the other names on this list and carries a lot more risk. On the bright side, he doesn't turn 21 until May. 24 year old Thomas Burrows was actually the Mariners' fourth round pick in the same 2016 draft as all the above players (minus Ynoa), having been taken eight picks after Bryse Wilson and coming over to Atlanta with Luiz Gohara in the Mallex Smith trade. Burrows, out of the University of Alabama, is strictly a reliever and posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 86/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi in 2018, showing a major league ready fastball/slider combination. He throws from a low, almost sidearm release point, giving him added deception and making his stuff play up. The 6'1" lefty needs to work on his command, which will be the difference between him being a middle reliever or something more. Lastly, 24 year old Patrick Weigel became one of the Braves' top prospects after a huge 2016 season (2.47 ERA, 152/55 K/BB) but struggled when promoted to AAA in 2017 and hurt his elbow, missing the rest of that season and almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery (he did return to throw four shutout innings in complex ball). Weigel has a low to mid 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, though none stand out as true swing-and-miss pitches and he'll have to rely on mixing his pitches to be an effective starter. The surgery caused him to fall behind the hoard of pitching prospects who made strides in 2018, but he has a shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the near future.
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Alan Rangel, RHP Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP Tristan Beck, RHP Trey Riley
While the upper minors boast nothing but headliners and the mid minors carry guys like Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, and Joey Wentz, the low minors don't quite have a headliner, and that's partially due to the failure of the team to sign 2018 eighth overall pick Carter Stewart, a fireballing 6'6" righty with a power curve. This group consists of five pitchers with the potential to break out in 2019, led by 20 year old Freddy Tarnok. A third rounder (80th overall) in 2017 out of high school near Tampa, Tarnok posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an 83/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at Class A Rome as the Braves worked to transition him from the bullpen to the rotation in 2018. The results weren't great (1.26 ERA, 49/24 K/BB as a reliever vs 6.26 ERA, 34/17 K/BB as a starter), but the 6'3" righty is extremely projectable and already easily sits in the low 90's. His secondary stuff, command, and general durability all need work, but he's also relatively new to pitching and the Braves think they can transform him into a mid-rotation starter. Behind him, 21 year olds Alan Rangel and Jasseel De La Cruz couldn't be more different as pitchers despite being teammates throughout 2018. Rangel posted a 4.09 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at Rome, while De La Cruz had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 65/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings at the same level. Rangel is a pitchability righty who relies on his strong secondary stuff and his command to get by, while De La Cruz blows his low to mid 90's fastball by hitters with little in the way of secondaries or command. In that sense, De La Cruz is more of a similar pitcher to Tarnok, while Rangel has a little bit of Mike Soroka in him (although obviously not on the same level). Personally, I like Rangel just a bit more due to the success that Soroka had in this system, but De La Cruz definitely has the higher upside and could blow past Rangel with some mechanical adjustments. 22 year old Tristan Beck was a fourth round pick out of Stanford in 2018, tossing 4.2 shutout innings while striking out seven and walking two over 4.1 complex level innings afterwards. Beck figured to be a first round draft pick as a sophomore in 2017, but a back injury forced him out for the entire season and he came back with slightly diminished stuff in 2018, causing him to fall to the fourth round (though he still signed above-slot). Beck is a projectable 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, an inconsistent curveball that looked better in 2016 than it did in 2018, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. If he can stay healthy and the Braves can get him back to spinning that curveball effectively, he has high upside as a #2 or #3 starter due to his feel for pitching, but he also has a lot of questions to answer for someone who will be 23 in June. Lastly, 20 year old Trey Riley was a fifth round pick out of an Illinois junior college in 2018, then posted an 8.00 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and a 13/10 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings at rookie level Danville. The Braves envision Riley as a starter, though he has a ton of work to do if that is to happen. He currently sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nasty slider, but he struggles to throw strikes, throws with effort, and lacks a changeup at this point. I feel that he is destined for the bullpen in this deep system, where he could sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and use that slider as a true swing and miss pitch regularly. Still, he'll have to answer the command question and learn to throw strikes.
The Hitters: 3B Austin Riley, OF Cristian Pache, UT Travis Demeritte, OF Drew Waters, OF Greyson Jenista, C William Contreras, and 3B CJ Alexander
While the Braves' position player depth isn't nearly as extensive as its pitching depth, they still have a solid group of guys that includes quite a few impact players. 21 year old Austin Riley, a former competitive balance pick (41st overall) out of a Memphis-area high school in 2015, is the best hitter, having slashed .294/.360/.522 with 19 home runs and a 129/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Mississippi, AAA Gwinnett, and complex level rehab. He has plenty of power and also added 30 doubles in 2018, and he could be a consistent 25-30 home run bat in the majors. His plate discipline seemingly could use some work, but he has continued to produce with every promotion and it may not end up hindering him in the majors. Josh Donaldson is the place holder at third base for now, but look for Riley to break in at some point during 2019 before taking over as the full-time starting third baseman in 2020, where he could be an All Star. While Riley has the superior bat, 20 year old Cristian Pache is inarguably the most exciting position-playing prospect in this system. In 2018, the Dominican outfielder slashed .279/.307/.410 with nine home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 97/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Florida and Mississippi, the nine home runs being a very pleasant surprise after he went homerless in 2016 and 2017. However, Pache is really known for his defense, as he might be the best defensive center fielder in the minors with his blazing speed, great range, and terrific arm. It's not often that you get players with that kind of defensive package, as great defenders typically pair a cannon arm with average range or a decent arm with terrific range. Offensively, Pache proved himself against High A pitching in 2018 (.285/.311/.431) and only turned 20 over the offseason, so while he's never expected to be a true impact hitter, he should be able to provide more than enough value at the plate to remain in the lineup and give his defense a chance to shine. Offensively, expect a guy who can get on base at a solid rate, steal plenty of bases, and clear the fences occasionally. 24 year old Travis Demeritte, acquired from the Rangers back in 2016, has flashed high upside for a long time but has never quite put it together. In 2018, he slashed .222/.316/.416 with 17 home runs and a 140/57 strikeout to walk ratio at Mississippi, showing more of the same with big time power and trouble getting to it. Long considered a high-risk, high-reward player, he seems to be plateauing at AA and likely takes on more of a super-utility projection at this point, his solid glove giving him the opportunity to handle both the infield and the outfield. Demeritte could put it together in 2019, but that is looking less likely. I was a big fan of now-20 year old Drew Waters during the 2017 draft, where I saw him as a first round talent and the Braves scooped him up in the second round (41st overall) out of an Atlanta-area high school, and I'm still a big fan today. In 2018, his first full season out of high school, Waters slashed .293/.343/.476 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between Class A Rome and Florida, the promotion to High A being something fairly uncommon for high school bats in their first full pro season. He's a wiry outfielder whose outfield defense is ahead of his offense at this point, as he is a great all-around defender with plenty of range and arm strength, kind of like Pache-lite. However, unlike Pache, I think Waters has tremendous upside at the plate as well, his powerful swing from both sides of the plate looking like one that could produce 20-30 home runs per season once he grows into his frame and learns to find the barrel more consistently. I'd like to see him get more patient at the plate and I think he will. 22 year old Greyson Jenista was a second round pick (49th overall) in 2018 out of Wichita State, and he slashed .265/.328/.395 with four home runs and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games between rookie level Danville, Rome, and Florida in his pro debut. He's 6'4" but has a swing that is more line-drive oriented than power oriented, and I think he will really benefit from time in the Braves system as his swing seems like one that easily add that power to me. Defensively, he's solid in right field with a strong arm and decent range, and scouts have spoken highly of his work ethic. I see him as a potential 20-30 homer bat, much like Riley and Waters, though the mechanical changes that would be required to reach that ceiling come with some risk. 21 year old William Contreras (the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras) had a breakout year in 2018 and slashed .285/.347/.436 with eleven home runs and an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games between Rome and Florida, putting together a full season for the first time in his career and showing improved power to boot. He's a very capable defender behind the plate, but unlike most catchers with playable defense, he can hit too, and that makes him very valuable. He still has a lot of work to do in proving that his bat can play in the higher levels of the minors and working to become even better behind the plate, but he's certainly one of the better catching prospects in the game. Lastly, 22 year old CJ Alexander was the Braves' 20th round pick in 2018 out of a Florida junior college, though on talent alone he should have been a top ten rounds pick. He's gotten off to a blazing start in pro ball (much like his younger brother, Blaze, in the Diamondbacks organization) by slashing .352/.429/.495 with two home runs and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games between complex ball, Danville, and Florida. At the State College of Florida, he was better known as a player with big time power who could get a bit too aggressive at the plate, but he flipped the script in pro ball by showing solid plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, finishing with just two home runs in 52 games (plus eight doubles and seven triples). Alexander's ability to consistently barrel the ball up in pro ball and even at High A (.325/.386/.450) bodes well for his chances to break through as one of the team's top hitting prospects. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a solid third baseman despite his decent glove.
Friday, June 30, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves
First 5 rounds: Kyle Wright (1-5), Drew Waters (2-41), Freddy Tarnok (3-80), Troy Bacon (4-110), Bruce Zimmerman (5-140)
Also notable: Landon Hughes (7-200), Hagen Owenby (12-350), Cade Cavalli (29-860), Chris McMahon (33-980)
The Braves already have arguably baseball's top farm system, and that's no surprise because they usually draft well. This year was no different, at least with their first few picks, after which they started to take a bunch of players I'd never heard of. They employed an interesting bonus strategy, drafting low-cost seniors from rounds 5-10 and saving almost $1.2 million total on those six picks. The Braves develop pitching better than almost anybody else, so it's no surprise they leaned pitching in this draft, though they did take a high school outfielder in the second round, a college third baseman in the sixth, and a college shortstop in the ninth. Another interesting thing was that each of their first nine picks come from the southeast, all within the states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
1-5: RHP Kyle Wright (my rank: 2)
The Braves must have been ecstatic when Wright fell past the Twins, Reds, Padres, and Rays in the first four picks. The Vanderbilt ace has one of the best combinations of upside and floor in this draft, and with the way the Braves develop pitching, he has a real chance to be an ace. Wright throws his fastball in the mid 90's, and he comes in with one of the deadliest slider/curveball combinations in the draft. The curve in particular has filthy, two-plane break, and all three pitches could be plus at the major league level. His changeup is coming along and shows promise, so not only does he have ace upside, but he has a relatively high floor as a power reliever. On the downside, Wright didn't quite dominate the SEC the way teams wanted him to this year (5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB), though he did rack up the K's. He grew up a Braves fan, and he signed for $7 million, which is nearly $1.3 million over slot.
2-41: OF Drew Waters (my rank: 21)
This is a great pick. Waters was arguably my favorite player (when normalized to general consensus) in this draft, coming in with easy first round upside. He's a risky pick as a high schooler, but so were the similarly tooled up Austin Beck and Jo Adell in the top ten picks, so I would have gladly taken Waters 20 picks higher. He's a great athlete and should be able to stick in center field, which takes the pressure off his bat, even though I think the bat is special. A switch hitter, he shows great bat speed from both sides of the plate, though his two swings aren't exactly the same. From the right side, he's more of a contact hitter, spraying line drives to all fields with a clean, quick swing. From the left side, he is more raw and has more moving parts, but he also has more loft and can launch the ball a mile. I think he has 20-20 upside with a chance to hit for average as well once the minor swing and miss issues are ironed out. Another local guy, Waters comes from the Atlanta area, giving them back to back (presumably) Braves fans with their first two picks. Waters signed for $1.5 million, which is actually $174,600 below slot, and I think that could be the steal of the draft here in the second round.
3-80: RHP Freddy Tarnok (unranked)
I'll admit to not knowing much about Tarnok before the draft, as he missed MLB.com's top 200 and ranked #170 on the Baseball America 500. I watched some video, and he's an athletic, projectable 6'4" right hander out of the Tampa area, with a terrible delivery that he still manages to reach the mid 90's from. Tarnok has a sharp curve with hard break, though it's inconsistent and the break is fairly early. Tarnok is a project, but he has high upside once the Braves fix that awful delivery. He signed for over $1.4 million, coming in at $736,000 over slot.
4-110: RHP Troy Bacon (unranked)
Bacon is a JuCo right hander with a projectable frame and easy low 90's heat and a good breaking ball, but he's already a reliever so his stuff has already taken that "jump forward" that comes with the transition from starting to relief. He could be a solid seventh inning guy, but I have heard negative remarks about his attitude. Bacon signed for $400,000, which is $87,400 below slot.
33-980: RHP Chris McMahon (my rank: 92)
McMahon won't sign here, and will instead attend Miami, where he could turn himself into a high pick. McMahon, a Pennsylvania high schooler, has a fairly unexciting tools package, as he throws in the low 90's with some movement and a decent arsenal which could help him start in the major leagues. Essentially, he knows how to pitch and has the tools to succeed, so he just needs to put them to work. He is likely a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if all goes right.
Others: 7th rounder Landon Hughes pitched two years at JuCo powerhouse Wallace State, which also produced Craig Kimbrel, before transferring to Georgia Southern and spending two years as a vital member of their bullpen. Combining his two years in Statesboro, the projectable, 6'5" righty went 11-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, striking out 113 batters and walking 30 in 105 innings. 12th rounder Hagen Owenby had a successful three year career at East Tennessee State, serving as the catcher and slashing .347/.426/.584 with 37 home runs in 163 games. 29th rounder Cade Cavalli is a high-upside high school pitcher from Oklahoma, one who only came to pitching recently. In the 29th round, it's highly unlikely that he signs, and instead he'll likely head to Oklahoma. He can hit the mid 90's despite his lack of experience pitching, and he could emerge from three years in Norman as a high pick.
Also notable: Landon Hughes (7-200), Hagen Owenby (12-350), Cade Cavalli (29-860), Chris McMahon (33-980)
The Braves already have arguably baseball's top farm system, and that's no surprise because they usually draft well. This year was no different, at least with their first few picks, after which they started to take a bunch of players I'd never heard of. They employed an interesting bonus strategy, drafting low-cost seniors from rounds 5-10 and saving almost $1.2 million total on those six picks. The Braves develop pitching better than almost anybody else, so it's no surprise they leaned pitching in this draft, though they did take a high school outfielder in the second round, a college third baseman in the sixth, and a college shortstop in the ninth. Another interesting thing was that each of their first nine picks come from the southeast, all within the states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
1-5: RHP Kyle Wright (my rank: 2)
The Braves must have been ecstatic when Wright fell past the Twins, Reds, Padres, and Rays in the first four picks. The Vanderbilt ace has one of the best combinations of upside and floor in this draft, and with the way the Braves develop pitching, he has a real chance to be an ace. Wright throws his fastball in the mid 90's, and he comes in with one of the deadliest slider/curveball combinations in the draft. The curve in particular has filthy, two-plane break, and all three pitches could be plus at the major league level. His changeup is coming along and shows promise, so not only does he have ace upside, but he has a relatively high floor as a power reliever. On the downside, Wright didn't quite dominate the SEC the way teams wanted him to this year (5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB), though he did rack up the K's. He grew up a Braves fan, and he signed for $7 million, which is nearly $1.3 million over slot.
2-41: OF Drew Waters (my rank: 21)
This is a great pick. Waters was arguably my favorite player (when normalized to general consensus) in this draft, coming in with easy first round upside. He's a risky pick as a high schooler, but so were the similarly tooled up Austin Beck and Jo Adell in the top ten picks, so I would have gladly taken Waters 20 picks higher. He's a great athlete and should be able to stick in center field, which takes the pressure off his bat, even though I think the bat is special. A switch hitter, he shows great bat speed from both sides of the plate, though his two swings aren't exactly the same. From the right side, he's more of a contact hitter, spraying line drives to all fields with a clean, quick swing. From the left side, he is more raw and has more moving parts, but he also has more loft and can launch the ball a mile. I think he has 20-20 upside with a chance to hit for average as well once the minor swing and miss issues are ironed out. Another local guy, Waters comes from the Atlanta area, giving them back to back (presumably) Braves fans with their first two picks. Waters signed for $1.5 million, which is actually $174,600 below slot, and I think that could be the steal of the draft here in the second round.
3-80: RHP Freddy Tarnok (unranked)
I'll admit to not knowing much about Tarnok before the draft, as he missed MLB.com's top 200 and ranked #170 on the Baseball America 500. I watched some video, and he's an athletic, projectable 6'4" right hander out of the Tampa area, with a terrible delivery that he still manages to reach the mid 90's from. Tarnok has a sharp curve with hard break, though it's inconsistent and the break is fairly early. Tarnok is a project, but he has high upside once the Braves fix that awful delivery. He signed for over $1.4 million, coming in at $736,000 over slot.
4-110: RHP Troy Bacon (unranked)
Bacon is a JuCo right hander with a projectable frame and easy low 90's heat and a good breaking ball, but he's already a reliever so his stuff has already taken that "jump forward" that comes with the transition from starting to relief. He could be a solid seventh inning guy, but I have heard negative remarks about his attitude. Bacon signed for $400,000, which is $87,400 below slot.
33-980: RHP Chris McMahon (my rank: 92)
McMahon won't sign here, and will instead attend Miami, where he could turn himself into a high pick. McMahon, a Pennsylvania high schooler, has a fairly unexciting tools package, as he throws in the low 90's with some movement and a decent arsenal which could help him start in the major leagues. Essentially, he knows how to pitch and has the tools to succeed, so he just needs to put them to work. He is likely a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if all goes right.
Others: 7th rounder Landon Hughes pitched two years at JuCo powerhouse Wallace State, which also produced Craig Kimbrel, before transferring to Georgia Southern and spending two years as a vital member of their bullpen. Combining his two years in Statesboro, the projectable, 6'5" righty went 11-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, striking out 113 batters and walking 30 in 105 innings. 12th rounder Hagen Owenby had a successful three year career at East Tennessee State, serving as the catcher and slashing .347/.426/.584 with 37 home runs in 163 games. 29th rounder Cade Cavalli is a high-upside high school pitcher from Oklahoma, one who only came to pitching recently. In the 29th round, it's highly unlikely that he signs, and instead he'll likely head to Oklahoma. He can hit the mid 90's despite his lack of experience pitching, and he could emerge from three years in Norman as a high pick.
Thursday, June 8, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: Toolsy Prep Hitters
First Tier: Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
Wednesday, May 10, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Drew Waters
OF Drew Waters (Etowah HS, GA): 6'2", 185 lbs, born 12/30/1998
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 55. Run: 60. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
Drew Waters is an athletic high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. As of now, he's not quite a first rounder, but I am a big fan of his and I believe his talent warrants a first round selection. Waters, a switch hitter, has a broad set of tools that could all grade out as above average, making him a potential five-tool threat. His left handed and right handed swings are not identical, with his left handed swing producing more power and his right handed swing being more geared towards contact. Unless he signs an under-slot deal earlier, his likely draft range is somewhere in the supplemental, competitive balance, or early second rounds.
Strengths
Waters is an athlete, and this translates well on both sides of the ball. He grades out as a plus defender in the outfield, with the ability to man all three spots with above average arm strength. His athletic build is also very projectable, with plenty of room to add strength. At the plate, he is one of the most intriguing players in this draft. His big left handed swing produces a ton of bat speed, and the ball jumps off his bat for deep line drives and fly balls. From the right side, his swing is a little cleaner and a lot more compact, but the bat speed is still there and he sprays line drives all over the field.
Weaknesses
Like many high school switch hitters, he is a bit raw, and the differing approaches from either side of the plate are not ideal. He has a lot of cleaning up to do with his left handed swing, which makes him a high risk pick for the first round. However, past the first 25 or so picks, the upside might just be too much to pass up.
Overview
Hit: 50. Power: 55. Run: 60. Throw: 55. Field: 60.
Drew Waters is an athletic high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. As of now, he's not quite a first rounder, but I am a big fan of his and I believe his talent warrants a first round selection. Waters, a switch hitter, has a broad set of tools that could all grade out as above average, making him a potential five-tool threat. His left handed and right handed swings are not identical, with his left handed swing producing more power and his right handed swing being more geared towards contact. Unless he signs an under-slot deal earlier, his likely draft range is somewhere in the supplemental, competitive balance, or early second rounds.
Strengths
Waters is an athlete, and this translates well on both sides of the ball. He grades out as a plus defender in the outfield, with the ability to man all three spots with above average arm strength. His athletic build is also very projectable, with plenty of room to add strength. At the plate, he is one of the most intriguing players in this draft. His big left handed swing produces a ton of bat speed, and the ball jumps off his bat for deep line drives and fly balls. From the right side, his swing is a little cleaner and a lot more compact, but the bat speed is still there and he sprays line drives all over the field.
Weaknesses
Like many high school switch hitters, he is a bit raw, and the differing approaches from either side of the plate are not ideal. He has a lot of cleaning up to do with his left handed swing, which makes him a high risk pick for the first round. However, past the first 25 or so picks, the upside might just be too much to pass up.
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