2021 Dugout Edge MVP's and Cy Young's

AL MVP

Winner: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels.
46 HR, .257/.372/.592, 26 SB, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR in 158 games.
9-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 156/44 K/BB, 3.0 fWAR, in 130.1 innings.

Runner-up: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays.
48 HR, .311/.401/.601, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR in 161 games.

Honorable mention: SS Marcus Semien, Blue Jays.
45 HR, .265/.334/.538, 15 SB, 131 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games.

To me, this wasn't particularly close. Yeah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a great season at the plate, but it wasn't an outlier even just looking at the past few seasons. His AL-leading 166 wRC+ was four points behind Bryce Harper for the MLB lead, and it would have placed fourth in 2019 behind Mike Trout (177), Christian Yelich (174), and Alex Bregman (167). Combine Guerrero's 166 wRC+ with little defensive value and you still have a very good, MVP-caliber season, but I don't think we can pretend it was some historical run that Shohei Ohtani is unjustly overshadowing because of some novelty. "If he's always going to pitch and hit, should we just give it to him every year?" If he does it at this level, and nobody steps up with a better season, then yes. It's not just "some novelty" and here's why.

Ohtani owns this award through and through. Critics will point to his .257 batting average and 189 strikeouts, but that's about it and it's a terrible argument. The guy walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances to turn that unremarkable .257 average into a very strong .372 on-base percentage, while his 46 bombs (just one less than Vladdy) meant that he slugged nearly .600 on the year. His 152 wRC+ was actually the second highest in the American League behind only Guerrero and directly ahead of Aaron Judge (149), Matt Olson (147), and Kyle Tucker (146). And he stole 26 bases. Are you going to tell me that's not a great season? On its own, it's definitely not enough to unseat Guerrero as the best hitter in the American League, but it's reasonably close, isn't it? Throw in the fact that he pitched to a 3.18 ERA and struck out nearly 30% of his opponents while making 23 starts, and it more than makes up for the not-that-big gap in offensive production.

Other critics might point to the Blue Jays finishing fourteen games ahead of the Angels in the standings, but Guerrero was teaming with a star-studded cast including Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Robbie Ray, etc., etc., while Ohtani had, like, a month and a half of Mike Trout? I mean I'm sorry he couldn't will an Angels team that didn't have *a single other pitcher* complete one hundred innings to the playoffs, but he did more than anybody else could have. I don't use WPA (win probability added) when choosing my MVP's, but for those that value tangible contributions to winning real baseball games, it's about as accurate a stat as you can get. And Ohtani led all MLB hitters with 5.36, not including his pitching. That's right, just his bat did more to put the Angels in a position to win real baseball games than any other MLB hitter, including Guerrero.

If I sound negative towards Guerrero, I don't mean to. I absolutely believe Ohtani is the AL MVP, but Guerrero had a damn fine season in his own right. He and Bryce Harper were the only two hitters to reach the .300/.400/.600 threshold, and going back to the last full season in 2019, it was only Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. Not only was he the best hitter in the American League by a comfortable margin, he did it while playing in all but one game and striking out in just over 15% of his plate appearances, something that you just don't often see from power hitters. In fact, he was one of just two American League hitters (along with Jose Ramirez) to hit at least 32 home runs while striking out less than 16% of the time, and he hit 48. I also want to give some love to Marcus Semien, who blasted 45 home runs while playing standout defense at shortstop and appearing in every single game. Jose Ramirez was also considered here.

NL MVP

Winner: OF Bryce Harper, Phillies.
35 HR, .309/.429/.615, 13 SB, 170 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games.

Runner-up: SS Trea Turner, Nationals/Dodgers.
28 HR, .328/.375/.536, 32 SB, 142 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR in 148 games.

Honorable mention: OF Juan Soto, Nationals.
29 HR, .313/.465/.534, 9 SB, 163 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 151 games.

I actually think Trea Turner provided the most value of any player in the NL, and not just because he led in fWAR, but I can't bring myself to give my MVP to a player who split his season between two teams. So it comes down to Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, who had extremely similar seasons, with Harper showing a little more pop and Soto getting on base a touch more and playing ten more games. They also both started (relatively) slowly before heating up in the second half. Harper hit .282/.378/.520 in the first half before turning it around to a .338/.476/.713 line, while Soto was even more extreme at .283/.407/.445 and .348/.525/.639. Additionally, both played moderately decent defense, with Soto winning in OAA (5 to -5) and DRS (3 to -6) and Harper getting the edge by UZR (1.8 to 1.3).

Beyond WAR, I value longevity and consistency highly, and Soto played more while Harper was more consistent. Ultimately, I had to give it to Harper because in the first half of the season, Soto just didn't hit for power. He had just eight extra base hits in his first forty games, so even his second half power surge meant he finished with just 51 to Harper's 78. Soto got on base a lot more, but to be fair, pitchers just weren't throwing to him in the second half with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Yan Gomes gone from the lineup, and he saw the seventh fewest strikes of any qualified NL hitter in the second half (and all the names above him were extremely aggressive, chase-happy hitters). Absolutely huge credit to him for taking his walks and still doing massive amounts of damage on the balls he did get in the zone, but I still see more value in Harper's second half power surge than Soto's willingness to take his walks.

As a Nationals fan, I don't mean to downplay Juan Soto or his second half discipline – I think he's the single most impressive hitter I've seen since prime Albert Pujols, when I was too young to meaningfully analyze what I was watching beyond emulating his batting stance in backyard wiffleball games. Soto is incredible, and he had an incredible season that's borderline MVP-worthy. And I wouldn't fight you too hard if you picked him over Harper. The consistency and power surge just won me over a tiny bit more than the discipline, while the slow start in terms of Soto's power sits with me a little too much.

Now back to Trea Turner. He led all MLB position players with 6.8 fWAR, but his value goes beyond that. 28 home runs is good, as is a .375 on-base percentage, especially when it's driven by extra base hits and not walks. He went 32/37 in stolen base attempts and played great defense at two positions. It's the most well-rounded profile out there. But I think there's a certain unquantifiable value add that comes with true game-breaking speed like Turner's. When he's on base, it becomes a different baseball game altogether, with pitchers focusing as much on him as they are on the batter. And they have to, because if they forget about him, he'll be on the next base. He wasn't quite the hitter that Juan Soto or Bryce Harper was, but he was on a similar level and added much more defensive value plus that speed. Not just useable speed, but game changing speed. I guess that's where the subjectivity comes in, because he's the MVP if it weren't for the split season.

AL Cy Young

Winner: LHP Robbie Ray, Blue Jays.
13-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 248/52 K/BB in 193.1 innings.

Runner-up: RHP Gerrit Cole, Yankees.
16-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 243/41 K/BB in 181.1 innings.

Honorable mention: LHP Carlos Rodon, White Sox.
13-5, 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 185/36 K/BB in 132.2 innings.

This one was fairly easy for me. Robbie Ray led the AL in innings, ERA, RA9, WHIP, strikeouts, and starts (tied), and he did so in a division with four ninety win teams while traveling around without a home park. Those are traditional stats to value, but I value them. I understand and agree with managers' decisions to shorten the leashes on their starting pitchers because that's what wins ballgames, but that doesn't mean I devalue a pitcher who can pitch deep into games and continue to be effective like Ray. Really, the only blemish was his 33 home runs allowed, fourth most in the AL and enough to inflate his FIP to 3.69, but good pitchers give up dingers. He limited baserunners, he limited runs both earned and unearned, he did it over a large body of work, and he didn't have a home stadium for much of the season. That's a job well done to me.

Gerrit Cole was a pretty easy runner-up for me, too. He was second in strikeouts, WHIP, and FIP, third in ERA and RA9, and fifth in innings. He also did so in a hitter-friendly park and like Ray pitched in that gauntlet AL East. Thirteen of his thirty starts came against the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, making for very consistent tough matchups week in and week out. Cole was gutsy and always a competitor, going at least five innings in 28/30 starts, matching Ray's mark of 28/32 in two fewer starts.

For the last spot, I went between Carlos Rodon and Nathan Eovaldi, who each had very unique pitches for this spot. Rodon's 132.2 innings weren't the traditional big body of work I like to see, but batter for batter, he was the most dominant starting pitcher in the majors. If we dropped the innings qualification to 130, he would have led in ERA, RA9, FIP, and strikeout rate. It's too bad he couldn't tack on perhaps ten to twenty more innings or I might have considered him for the #1 spot. Eovaldi, meanwhile, did not have the traditional stats with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, but he was playing in a hitters' park in a strong division with a poor defense behind him, so a 3.75 ERA in that context becomes a lot more impressive. His .327 opponents' BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the worst in the league, again pointing to a defense that was of no help to him, while his 195/35 strikeout to walk ratio was a strong note. Lance Lynn also earned consideration.

NL Cy Young

Winner: RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers.
11-5, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 234/34 K/BB in 167 innings.

Runner-up: RHP Max Scherzer, Nationals/Dodgers.
15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236/36 K/BB in 179.1 innings.

Honorable mention: RHP Zack Wheeler, Phillies.
14-10, 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 247/46 K/BB in 213.1 innings.

This was the toughest one to decide, and I actually wouldn't argue putting these three in any order. I typically value large numbers of innings, which would put Zack Wheeler ahead, but Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer were significantly better on a batter-for-batter basis, so much so that I think they eclipse Wheeler – barely. Burnes was the best starting pitcher in MLB on that batter-for-batter basis, absolutely dominating the three true outcomes to turn up a ridiculous 1.63 FIP, the second best mark of the entire live ball era behind only Pedro Martinez's 1.39 in 1999. You can forgive the low innings total when your success has to be categorized on an all-time scale. The Brewers had a very strong defense this year, but he still managed a relatively high .309 BABIP that indicated bad luck. In addition to FIP, he led the NL in ERA, RA9, fWAR, and strikeout rate. If he had thrown perhaps ten more innings, then I don't think this race would have been close at all.

I originally leaned towards Wheeler over Scherzer given his larger body of work, which I value, but then I checked what exactly Wheeler had on Scherzer. In order to get from Scherzer's line to Wheeler's, you'd have to post a 3.97 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 innings. I wouldn't necessarily have been looking for Cy Young-caliber numbers in those 34 innings to put Wheeler ahead, but I would have at least wanted #3 starter-caliber performance and that's more like a #5. Throw in that Wheeler pitched his entire season in the weak NL East while Scherzer's final seven starts were a gauntlet (Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Reds, Rockies at Coors, Padres), and that seals Scherzer's edge for second place (though he only had to face one Giants batter all season, LaMonte Wade, when he was still a National). In Scherzer's "smaller sample" 179.1 innings, he was virtually untouchable, leading the NL in WHIP while finishing second in strikeouts and ERA, third in RA9, and fourth in FIP.

Zack Wheeler had a very strong season, one that was more than deserving of consideration. I really value that he led the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts while also finishing fifth in ERA and WHIP. He went at least five innings in 30/32 starts and at least six in 27/32, and he allowed four or fewer earned runs in 30/32. He also never struck out fewer than four batters and never walked more than he struck out. Wheeler was as consistent a workhorse as they come, and he did so without the traditional pitch to contact method. Behind this trio was Walker Buehler, who earned some consideration but was safely behind.

Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers of the 2019-2020 Offseason

1. Gerrit Cole (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 20-5, 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 326/48 K/BB in 212.1 IP
The best free agent pitcher since Max Scherzer, whom he started against twice in the 2019 World Series, Gerrit Cole should break his record for the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher. And it'll be with good reason; in 2019, he smashed Pedro Martinez's single season record for a starting pitcher by striking out 39.9% of his opponents, easily topping Pedro's 37.5% in 1999. Cole turned everything around after being traded from Pittsburgh to Houston, as he was 19-22 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP from 2016-2017 then 35-10 with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP from 2018-2019. You could make the argument that he's the best in baseball now with his four plus pitches, solid command, and durability, and he only just turned 29 in September. This is a true ace who can change a team's entire pitching landscape. For his career, the UCLA product is 94-52 with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 1336/315 strikeout to walk ratio over 1195 innings since 2013.

2. Stephen Strasburg (2020 Age: 31-32)
2019: 18-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 251/56 K/BB in 209 IP
Strasburg will be opting out of the four years and $100 million left on his contract, as a huge 2019 season and an even bigger postseason (combined 23-6, 3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 298/60 K/BB in 245.1 IP and a World Series MVP) set him up to make significantly more money. Strasburg has been somewhat up and down over his career in Washington, looking really good before his 2011 Tommy John surgery, coming back strong in 2012-2014, then failing to reach 180 innings in a season between 2015 and 2018. Still, it seems that when he's on, he can be on for months at a time, as was the case in 2019 as his fastball, curveball, and changeup were all at the top of their game. While he's no more or less consistent than Cole, he's a step behind just due to how untouchable Cole can be at his best, and a slight injury history also hampers him slightly. Still, he's a true #2 who can pitch like an ace at times and the game has fewer and fewer of those. For his career, the San Diego State product is 112-58 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 1695/377 strikeout to walk ratio over 1438.2 innings since 2010.

3. Zack Wheeler (2020 Age: 29-30)
2019: 11-8, 3.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 195/50 K/BB in 195.1 IP
Wheeler doesn't have nearly the brand value as many of the other pitchers on this list, but he might have untapped potential that could make him one of the top performers. A top prospect when he came up with the Mets in 2013 and 2014, Tommy John surgery and subsequent complications caused him to sit out both the 2015 and 2016 seasons before he was largely ineffective in 2017 (5.21 ERA, 81/40 K/BB). However, he's experienced somewhat of a renaissance over the last two seasons, going 23-15 with a 3.65 ERA over 60 starts. Wheeler has electric stuff and so-so command that has held him back to this point, but it's easy to see a new environment helping him get over the hump from #3ish starter to something more. Even if he remains as is, he's a solid mid-rotation guy who doesn't turn 30 until May. For his career, the Atlanta-area native is 44-38 with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 726/270 strikeout to walk ratio over 749.1 innings since 2013.

4. Hyun-Jin Ryu (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 14-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 163/24 K/BB in 182.2 IP
Ryu will certainly be an interesting free agent case, because he has a lot of very serious plusses but a few attributes that will give evaluators pause. The most important thing he has going against him is his injury history, as he has never thrown 200 innings in a season and has only twice qualified for the ERA title (162 innings). From 2015-2016, shoulder issues limited him to just 4.2 innings, hip problems limited him to 126.2 in 2017, and groin issues knocked him out for half of 2018. Still, when he's on the mound, Ryu is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and over the last two seasons he's 21-8 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 265 innings. That's his excellent command and ability to mix pitches keeping hitters off balance, as his 22.5% strikeout rate isn't necessarily elite. On the one hand, he has the potential to be extremely valuable, a true ace, but on the other, he's far from a guarantee to remain on the mound on a consistent basis and he could end up being a sunk cost if he spends most of his time on the IL. For his career, the South Korean is 54-33 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 665/164 strikeout to walk ratio over 740.1 innings since 2013.

5. Madison Bumgarner (2020 Age: 30-31)
2019: 9-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 203/43 K/BB in 207.2 IP
Madison Bumgarner, one of the top pitchers in baseball from 2013-2016 who has regressed a bit over the last couple of seasons, but still only 30 and with over a decade of experience under his belt, he figures to be one of the most sought-after free agent starters. While 2019 saw him post a career-high 3.90 ERA, he also got back to 200 innings and 200 strikeouts for the first time since 2016. His fastball has lost a little bit of velocity, down 1-2 MPH since 2015, while his hard hit rate and swing and miss percentage have crept slowly in the wrong direction. That is why I rank him behind Wheeler and Ryu here, but the name value, experience, track record, and ability to step up in the playoffs still make him a very solid mid-rotation guy. For his career, the North Carolina native is 119-92 with a 3.13 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 1794/428 strikeout to walk ratio over 1846 innings since 2009.

6. Jake Odorizzi (2020 Age: 30)
2019: 15-7, 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 178/53 K/BB in 159 IP
Having pitched for the small market Royals, Rays, and Twins in his career, Odorizzi has flown under the radar for a while, but he's topped 140 innings in six straight seasons and he's thrown at least 159 innings in five of the six. His ERA ballooned to 4.49 in 2018, but that was actually the only season in which his ERA rose above 4.14, and it was down at 3.51 in 2019. Odorizzi is a very solid mid-rotation guy who turns 30 just before the start of the season, and he has a consistent track record of success dating back to 2014. He's not a star, but consistently effective starting pitchers are hard to come by and he's one. For his career, the Southern Illinois native is 62-55 with a 3.88 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 983/355 strikeout to walk ratio over 1028.2 innings since 2012.

7. Dallas Keuchel (2020 Age: 32)
2019: 8-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 91/39 K/BB in 112.2 IP
Keuchel won the 2015 AL Cy Young Award and has also been extremely effective at other times in his career, but he's been up and down and he holds a 3.74 ERA over the last two seasons without high strikeout numbers. He relies on his heavy sinker, which makes him an increasingly rare breed, generating a ton of ground balls rather than just striking everyone out. It's worked for long stretches at a time, but during other stretches, he's been too hittable and he's been more of a #3 or a #4 guy. I give the edge to Odorizzi here partly due to age (Keuchel turns 32 over the offseason), but Keuchel likely has the higher ceiling. For his career, the former Arkansas Razorback is 84-71 with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 1036/382 strikeout to walk ratio over 1302 innings since 2012.

8. Cole Hamels (2020 Age: 36)
2019: 7-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 143/56 K/BB in 141.2 IP
One of the older free agent starters available, Cole Hamels can still perform at a high level and should still be a solid #3/#4 starter in 2020, his age-36 season. He's been losing velocity lately, but he's a smart enough pitcher with enough experience to overcome it and remain effective. A veteran guy, he eats innings and gives you a chance to win every day, and he should be a solid short-term option for teams looking to fill out their rotations. I just would be iffy on giving him two or three years on a contract. For his career, the San Diego native is 163-121 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 2558/766 strikeout to walk ratio over 2694.2 innings since 2006.

9. Wade Miley (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 14-6, 3.98 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 140/61 K/BB in 167.1 IP
Miley has really reinvented himself after posting ERA's above 5.00 in 2016 and 2017, going 18-6 with a 2.89 ERA in 44 starts between 2018 and August 2019. However, he fell apart in September, allowing 21 runs in 11.1 innings to balloon his season's ERA from 3.06 to 3.98. The big decision for teams looking to sign him for 2020 and potentially beyond is which is the real Miley: the one we saw for most of 2018 and 2019, or the one who imploded in September, perhaps signaling a regression to his 2016-2017 self. I ultimately see him ending up with an ERA somewhere in the 4's in 2020, which would make him something of a #4/#5 starter, but recapturing what he had before the meltdown will make him a #3. For his career, the Southeastern Louisiana product is 85-82 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 1115/490 strikeout to walk ratio over 1403.2 innings since 2011.

10. Michael Wacha (2020 Age: 28-29)
2019: 6-7, 4.76 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 104/55 K/BB in 126.2 IP
For Wacha, a former first round pick out of Texas A&M, it's been a story of two careers; consistent with the hype he had as an amateur, he began his career 26-14 with a 3.21 ERA from 2013-2015, but since then, he's been up and down with a 4.39 ERA over the last four seasons. He reached as low as 3.20 in 2018, but he was as high as 5.09 in 2016. This past year, he had a 4.76 ERA and a career-worst 1.56 WHIP, and it's hard to project the 28 year old going forward. His past success and youth still make him an attractive target, and he does have an interesting fallback plan; if starting doesn't work out in 2020, he could shift to the bullpen and use his 6'6" frame and very good fastball/changeup combination to neutralize hitters in the late innings. For his career, the Texarkana native is 59-39 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 759/301 strikeout to walk ratio over 867.2 innings since 2013.

11. Tanner Roark (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 10-10, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 158/51 K/BB in 165.1 IP
Roark began his career struggling to find his identity as a pitcher with the Nationals using him as a starter and as a reliever, as his ERA's from 2013-2017 were 1.51, 2.85, 4.38, 2.83, and 4.67. However, since that 2017 season, he's settled into three consecutive seasons as a productive back-end starter, following it up with ERA's of 4.34 and 4.35. As a guy without swing and miss stuff, the upside is very limited here, but he's a fairly safe bet to end up as a guy who can give you a full season's worth or close to a full season's worth of productive innings, a #5 starter on a contending team or a #3 or #4 guy on a non-contending team. For his career, the Illinois product is 74-64 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 890/314 strikeout to walk ratio over 1100.1 innings since 2013.

12. Julio Teheran (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 10-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 162/83 K/BB in 174.2 IP
I think with Julio Teheran, unless you have a pitching coach with the magic touch, it's pretty clear what you're going to get. He's thrown over 170 innings and started at least 30 games in each of the past seven seasons, and given that he'll be 29 for all of 2020, durability is his strong suit. He'll go out and take the ball every fifth day and give you at least five innings. On the other hand, his walk rate has inched up from 5.8% in 2013-2014 to 8.9% in 2017 to 11%+ in 2018-2019, while his fastball velocity has dipped from 92.8 MPH in 2013 to 91.7 by 2016 and just 89.7 in 2019. That's an issue, and that's why he's no longer a solid #2 but more of a #4. Additionally, the trends are strong enough that he doesn't have a great chance of bouncing back in 2020, at least from a velocity standpoint, so he's probably a #4 starter at best. In summary, I wouldn't count on him in the long term, but he's a good bet to be an innings-eating back-end starter for at least 2020 and 2021, though not one you want starting Game Seven of the World Series. For his career, the Colombia native is 77-73 with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 1184/458 strikeout to walk ratio over 1360 innings since 2011.

13. Rick Porcello (2020 Age: 31)
2019: 14-12, 5.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 143/45 K/BB in 174.1 IP
Rick Porcello's results have been all over the place both with the Tigers from 2009-2014 when his ERA was as low as 3.43 (2014) and as high as 4.92 (2010), as well as with the Red Sox from 2015-2019, when his ERA was as low as 3.15 (2016) and as high as 5.52 (2019). The one thing that has been consistent here is Porcello's health and durability, as he's one of just three pitchers in baseball to qualify for the ERA title (min. 162 IP) every year since 2009, joining only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. At the very least, in Porcello, you're getting a pitcher who can give you a full season's worth of productive innings and who in the past has had some very good seasons (including the 2016 AL Cy Young Award) in the recent past. In reality, he's likely a #4 starter. For his career, the New Jersey native is 149-118 with a 4.36 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 1507/474 strikeout to walk ratio over 2037.1 innings since 2009.

14. Josh Lindblom (2020 Age: 32-33)
2019 (in South Korea): 20-3, 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 189/29 K/BB in 194.2 IP
It's hard to know what to make of Josh Lindblom as he returns from South Korea armed with a higher-spin fastball, but Miles Mikolas certainly helps Lindblom's case as a pitcher who has found success through a similar path. Lindblom last pitched in the majors in 2017, when he had a 7.84 ERA over four appearances with the Pirates, but he absolutely dominated for the Doosan Bears over the past two seasons, going 35-7 with a 2.68 ERA over 56 starts. He probably comes back as a #4/#5 starter, as the increased spin rates on his fastball point to tangible progress. For his major league career, the Purdue product is 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 131/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings since 2011.

15. Alex Wood (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 1-3, 5.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 30/9 K/BB in 35.2 IP
Wood has actually been a very effective starter for most of his career, never posting a 4+ ERA until this year, but back problems limited him to seven ineffective starts. Any team signing Wood will have to be comfortable with those back problems being behind him (pun unintended), because he could end up not contributing much at all if he can't stay healthy. Still, the upside here is that of a mid-rotation starter, and he'll come at a discount because of the uncertainty. For his career, the former Georgia Bulldog is 53-43 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 768/238 strikeout to walk ratio over 839 innings since 2013.

Others
Kyle Gibson (13-7, 4.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, age 32)
Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 3.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, age 34)
Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, age 40)
Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, age 38-39)
Brett Anderson (13-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, age 32)