1. Gerrit Cole (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 20-5, 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 326/48 K/BB in 212.1 IP
The best free agent pitcher since Max Scherzer, whom he started against twice in the 2019 World Series, Gerrit Cole should break his record for the largest contract ever given to a starting pitcher. And it'll be with good reason; in 2019, he smashed Pedro Martinez's single season record for a starting pitcher by striking out 39.9% of his opponents, easily topping Pedro's 37.5% in 1999. Cole turned everything around after being traded from Pittsburgh to Houston, as he was 19-22 with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP from 2016-2017 then 35-10 with a 2.68 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP from 2018-2019. You could make the argument that he's the best in baseball now with his four plus pitches, solid command, and durability, and he only just turned 29 in September. This is a true ace who can change a team's entire pitching landscape. For his career, the UCLA product is 94-52 with a 3.22 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 1336/315 strikeout to walk ratio over 1195 innings since 2013.
2. Stephen Strasburg (2020 Age: 31-32)
2019: 18-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 251/56 K/BB in 209 IP
Strasburg will be opting out of the four years and $100 million left on his contract, as a huge 2019 season and an even bigger postseason (combined 23-6, 3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 298/60 K/BB in 245.1 IP and a World Series MVP) set him up to make significantly more money. Strasburg has been somewhat up and down over his career in Washington, looking really good before his 2011 Tommy John surgery, coming back strong in 2012-2014, then failing to reach 180 innings in a season between 2015 and 2018. Still, it seems that when he's on, he can be on for months at a time, as was the case in 2019 as his fastball, curveball, and changeup were all at the top of their game. While he's no more or less consistent than Cole, he's a step behind just due to how untouchable Cole can be at his best, and a slight injury history also hampers him slightly. Still, he's a true #2 who can pitch like an ace at times and the game has fewer and fewer of those. For his career, the San Diego State product is 112-58 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 1695/377 strikeout to walk ratio over 1438.2 innings since 2010.
3. Zack Wheeler (2020 Age: 29-30)
2019: 11-8, 3.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 195/50 K/BB in 195.1 IP
Wheeler doesn't have nearly the brand value as many of the other pitchers on this list, but he might have untapped potential that could make him one of the top performers. A top prospect when he came up with the Mets in 2013 and 2014, Tommy John surgery and subsequent complications caused him to sit out both the 2015 and 2016 seasons before he was largely ineffective in 2017 (5.21 ERA, 81/40 K/BB). However, he's experienced somewhat of a renaissance over the last two seasons, going 23-15 with a 3.65 ERA over 60 starts. Wheeler has electric stuff and so-so command that has held him back to this point, but it's easy to see a new environment helping him get over the hump from #3ish starter to something more. Even if he remains as is, he's a solid mid-rotation guy who doesn't turn 30 until May. For his career, the Atlanta-area native is 44-38 with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 726/270 strikeout to walk ratio over 749.1 innings since 2013.
4. Hyun-Jin Ryu (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 14-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 163/24 K/BB in 182.2 IP
Ryu will certainly be an interesting free agent case, because he has a lot of very serious plusses but a few attributes that will give evaluators pause. The most important thing he has going against him is his injury history, as he has never thrown 200 innings in a season and has only twice qualified for the ERA title (162 innings). From 2015-2016, shoulder issues limited him to just 4.2 innings, hip problems limited him to 126.2 in 2017, and groin issues knocked him out for half of 2018. Still, when he's on the mound, Ryu is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and over the last two seasons he's 21-8 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP over 265 innings. That's his excellent command and ability to mix pitches keeping hitters off balance, as his 22.5% strikeout rate isn't necessarily elite. On the one hand, he has the potential to be extremely valuable, a true ace, but on the other, he's far from a guarantee to remain on the mound on a consistent basis and he could end up being a sunk cost if he spends most of his time on the IL. For his career, the South Korean is 54-33 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 665/164 strikeout to walk ratio over 740.1 innings since 2013.
5. Madison Bumgarner (2020 Age: 30-31)
2019: 9-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 203/43 K/BB in 207.2 IP
Madison Bumgarner, one of the top pitchers in baseball from 2013-2016 who has regressed a bit over the last couple of seasons, but still only 30 and with over a decade of experience under his belt, he figures to be one of the most sought-after free agent starters. While 2019 saw him post a career-high 3.90 ERA, he also got back to 200 innings and 200 strikeouts for the first time since 2016. His fastball has lost a little bit of velocity, down 1-2 MPH since 2015, while his hard hit rate and swing and miss percentage have crept slowly in the wrong direction. That is why I rank him behind Wheeler and Ryu here, but the name value, experience, track record, and ability to step up in the playoffs still make him a very solid mid-rotation guy. For his career, the North Carolina native is 119-92 with a 3.13 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 1794/428 strikeout to walk ratio over 1846 innings since 2009.
6. Jake Odorizzi (2020 Age: 30)
2019: 15-7, 3.51 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 178/53 K/BB in 159 IP
Having pitched for the small market Royals, Rays, and Twins in his career, Odorizzi has flown under the radar for a while, but he's topped 140 innings in six straight seasons and he's thrown at least 159 innings in five of the six. His ERA ballooned to 4.49 in 2018, but that was actually the only season in which his ERA rose above 4.14, and it was down at 3.51 in 2019. Odorizzi is a very solid mid-rotation guy who turns 30 just before the start of the season, and he has a consistent track record of success dating back to 2014. He's not a star, but consistently effective starting pitchers are hard to come by and he's one. For his career, the Southern Illinois native is 62-55 with a 3.88 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 983/355 strikeout to walk ratio over 1028.2 innings since 2012.
7. Dallas Keuchel (2020 Age: 32)
2019: 8-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 91/39 K/BB in 112.2 IP
Keuchel won the 2015 AL Cy Young Award and has also been extremely effective at other times in his career, but he's been up and down and he holds a 3.74 ERA over the last two seasons without high strikeout numbers. He relies on his heavy sinker, which makes him an increasingly rare breed, generating a ton of ground balls rather than just striking everyone out. It's worked for long stretches at a time, but during other stretches, he's been too hittable and he's been more of a #3 or a #4 guy. I give the edge to Odorizzi here partly due to age (Keuchel turns 32 over the offseason), but Keuchel likely has the higher ceiling. For his career, the former Arkansas Razorback is 84-71 with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 1036/382 strikeout to walk ratio over 1302 innings since 2012.
8. Cole Hamels (2020 Age: 36)
2019: 7-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 143/56 K/BB in 141.2 IP
One of the older free agent starters available, Cole Hamels can still perform at a high level and should still be a solid #3/#4 starter in 2020, his age-36 season. He's been losing velocity lately, but he's a smart enough pitcher with enough experience to overcome it and remain effective. A veteran guy, he eats innings and gives you a chance to win every day, and he should be a solid short-term option for teams looking to fill out their rotations. I just would be iffy on giving him two or three years on a contract. For his career, the San Diego native is 163-121 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 2558/766 strikeout to walk ratio over 2694.2 innings since 2006.
9. Wade Miley (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 14-6, 3.98 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 140/61 K/BB in 167.1 IP
Miley has really reinvented himself after posting ERA's above 5.00 in 2016 and 2017, going 18-6 with a 2.89 ERA in 44 starts between 2018 and August 2019. However, he fell apart in September, allowing 21 runs in 11.1 innings to balloon his season's ERA from 3.06 to 3.98. The big decision for teams looking to sign him for 2020 and potentially beyond is which is the real Miley: the one we saw for most of 2018 and 2019, or the one who imploded in September, perhaps signaling a regression to his 2016-2017 self. I ultimately see him ending up with an ERA somewhere in the 4's in 2020, which would make him something of a #4/#5 starter, but recapturing what he had before the meltdown will make him a #3. For his career, the Southeastern Louisiana product is 85-82 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 1115/490 strikeout to walk ratio over 1403.2 innings since 2011.
10. Michael Wacha (2020 Age: 28-29)
2019: 6-7, 4.76 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 104/55 K/BB in 126.2 IP
For Wacha, a former first round pick out of Texas A&M, it's been a story of two careers; consistent with the hype he had as an amateur, he began his career 26-14 with a 3.21 ERA from 2013-2015, but since then, he's been up and down with a 4.39 ERA over the last four seasons. He reached as low as 3.20 in 2018, but he was as high as 5.09 in 2016. This past year, he had a 4.76 ERA and a career-worst 1.56 WHIP, and it's hard to project the 28 year old going forward. His past success and youth still make him an attractive target, and he does have an interesting fallback plan; if starting doesn't work out in 2020, he could shift to the bullpen and use his 6'6" frame and very good fastball/changeup combination to neutralize hitters in the late innings. For his career, the Texarkana native is 59-39 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 759/301 strikeout to walk ratio over 867.2 innings since 2013.
11. Tanner Roark (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 10-10, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 158/51 K/BB in 165.1 IP
Roark began his career struggling to find his identity as a pitcher with the Nationals using him as a starter and as a reliever, as his ERA's from 2013-2017 were 1.51, 2.85, 4.38, 2.83, and 4.67. However, since that 2017 season, he's settled into three consecutive seasons as a productive back-end starter, following it up with ERA's of 4.34 and 4.35. As a guy without swing and miss stuff, the upside is very limited here, but he's a fairly safe bet to end up as a guy who can give you a full season's worth or close to a full season's worth of productive innings, a #5 starter on a contending team or a #3 or #4 guy on a non-contending team. For his career, the Illinois product is 74-64 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 890/314 strikeout to walk ratio over 1100.1 innings since 2013.
12. Julio Teheran (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 10-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 162/83 K/BB in 174.2 IP
I think with Julio Teheran, unless you have a pitching coach with the magic touch, it's pretty clear what you're going to get. He's thrown over 170 innings and started at least 30 games in each of the past seven seasons, and given that he'll be 29 for all of 2020, durability is his strong suit. He'll go out and take the ball every fifth day and give you at least five innings. On the other hand, his walk rate has inched up from 5.8% in 2013-2014 to 8.9% in 2017 to 11%+ in 2018-2019, while his fastball velocity has dipped from 92.8 MPH in 2013 to 91.7 by 2016 and just 89.7 in 2019. That's an issue, and that's why he's no longer a solid #2 but more of a #4. Additionally, the trends are strong enough that he doesn't have a great chance of bouncing back in 2020, at least from a velocity standpoint, so he's probably a #4 starter at best. In summary, I wouldn't count on him in the long term, but he's a good bet to be an innings-eating back-end starter for at least 2020 and 2021, though not one you want starting Game Seven of the World Series. For his career, the Colombia native is 77-73 with a 3.67 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 1184/458 strikeout to walk ratio over 1360 innings since 2011.
13. Rick Porcello (2020 Age: 31)
2019: 14-12, 5.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 143/45 K/BB in 174.1 IP
Rick Porcello's results have been all over the place both with the Tigers from 2009-2014 when his ERA was as low as 3.43 (2014) and as high as 4.92 (2010), as well as with the Red Sox from 2015-2019, when his ERA was as low as 3.15 (2016) and as high as 5.52 (2019). The one thing that has been consistent here is Porcello's health and durability, as he's one of just three pitchers in baseball to qualify for the ERA title (min. 162 IP) every year since 2009, joining only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. At the very least, in Porcello, you're getting a pitcher who can give you a full season's worth of productive innings and who in the past has had some very good seasons (including the 2016 AL Cy Young Award) in the recent past. In reality, he's likely a #4 starter. For his career, the New Jersey native is 149-118 with a 4.36 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 1507/474 strikeout to walk ratio over 2037.1 innings since 2009.
14. Josh Lindblom (2020 Age: 32-33)
2019 (in South Korea): 20-3, 2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 189/29 K/BB in 194.2 IP
It's hard to know what to make of Josh Lindblom as he returns from South Korea armed with a higher-spin fastball, but Miles Mikolas certainly helps Lindblom's case as a pitcher who has found success through a similar path. Lindblom last pitched in the majors in 2017, when he had a 7.84 ERA over four appearances with the Pirates, but he absolutely dominated for the Doosan Bears over the past two seasons, going 35-7 with a 2.68 ERA over 56 starts. He probably comes back as a #4/#5 starter, as the increased spin rates on his fastball point to tangible progress. For his major league career, the Purdue product is 5-8 with a 4.10 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 131/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings since 2011.
15. Alex Wood (2020 Age: 29)
2019: 1-3, 5.80 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 30/9 K/BB in 35.2 IP
Wood has actually been a very effective starter for most of his career, never posting a 4+ ERA until this year, but back problems limited him to seven ineffective starts. Any team signing Wood will have to be comfortable with those back problems being behind him (pun unintended), because he could end up not contributing much at all if he can't stay healthy. Still, the upside here is that of a mid-rotation starter, and he'll come at a discount because of the uncertainty. For his career, the former Georgia Bulldog is 53-43 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 768/238 strikeout to walk ratio over 839 innings since 2013.
Others
Kyle Gibson (13-7, 4.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, age 32)
Gio Gonzalez (3-2, 3.50 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, age 34)
Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, age 40)
Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, age 38-39)
Brett Anderson (13-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, age 32)
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