Hall of Fame 2021: My Ballot

I find the process of determining Hall-worthiness just as difficult as I find it interesting. There are so many complicating factors such as peak performance vs longevity, park effects and performance relative to league average, and of course, performance-enhancing drugs. Not only whether the drugs should disqualify a player, but whether the player took them and for how long. Below are my thoughts on this year's ballot, player by player, starting with those I would vote for. See my thoughts on steroids here.

Yes Votes

RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007, 70.0% in 2020)
Career: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 IP
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 IP
Best season (1997): 17-11, 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 319/58 K/BB in 254.1 IP
To me, Curt Schilling is one of two the clear-cut Hall of Famers on this ballot, along with Billy Wagner. If I could only vote for one, I would give Schilling a hard look. He may have never won a Cy Young award, but from 1996-2004, he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball at a time when Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson were at their peaks. He had eight qualified seasons with a sub-3.30 ERA (most of which were during the Steroid Era), reached 300 strikeouts three times and narrowly missed a fourth, and appeared in twenty different seasons from 1988-2007. In the postseason, he was on another level, earning NLCS MVP honors in 1993 and a World Series MVP in 2001, holding a 2.23 ERA over 133.1 innings against the best lineups in baseball. He was a stud in the regular season, a stud in the postseason, and stuck around for a long time. He's a Hall of Famer, and I really don't care that he's a bit of a whacko off the field. It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the Public Image Hall of Fame.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010, 31.7% in 2020)
Career: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 422 SV, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 IP
Postseason: 1-1, 10.03 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 3 SV, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 IP
Best season (2003): 1-4, 1.78 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 44 SV, 105/23 K/BB in 86 IP
Many people are hesitant to put relievers in the Hall of Fame, and I completely understand that stance. Right now, the only pure relievers in the Hall from the modern era of relief pitching are Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and maybe Goose Gossage as you count that as the modern era. Rivera is obviously in a class of his own, but if the other four are Hall of Famers, I see absolutely no argument to keep out Billy Wagner, who is far and away the greatest left handed reliever of all time. I mean, the numbers are ridiculous. He threw 903 innings, but even setting the minimum at 700, no pitcher in history can match his 33.2% strikeout rate, nor his .184 opponents' batting average, nor his 82% strand rate. Not even Mariano Rivera. Relievers are also notoriously inconsistent, but only once in Wagner's sixteen year career did he post an ERA above 2.85. When he retired in 2010 at the age of 39, he was still at the top of his game, posting a 1.47 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 104/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, indicating that he still had more left in the tank. So Wagner struggled in the postseason over a tiny 11.2 inning postseason sample, but that's not nearly enough to keep him out in my book. And the 31.7% he got in 2020 is absurdly low.

CF Andruw Jones (1996-2012, 19.4% in 2020)
Career: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 108 wRC+ in 76 games
Best season (2000): 36 HR, .303/.366/.541, 21 SB, 127 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 161 games
Andruw Jones, like Billy Wagner, hasn't gotten nearly the love he deserves in the vote, falling shy of 20% last year. Maybe he's not a Hall of Famer (I think he is), but to me it's a pretty plain fact that he deserves at least 40% or so. Some might cringe at the idea of putting a player who hit .254 with a .337 on-base percentage in the Hall of Fame, and if elected, his .254 average would have him second only to Ray Schalk (.253) for the lowest in HoF history. Still, I see him as fully deserving. Jones was arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever to play the game, and if some believe that Willie Mays or Devon White was better, than we can safely say he's a slam-dunk top five defensive outfielder ever, no debate. As I'll argue below with Omar Vizquel, though, defensive prowess isn't enough alone to get you in. No matter, because from 1998-2007, Jones was also one of the better hitters in the game, with ten straight seasons of more than 25 home runs, ten straight with 154 games played, eight seasons with a wRC+ of 112, and a career high of 51 home runs in 2005. On their own, those numbers don't put him in the Hall, but when we're talking about an all-time great defender, I think absolutely. fWAR gives another compelling argument, as he reached 4.9 in ten straight seasons and topped 7.0 three times, but I understand some don't buy into that statistic and I think the case is pretty compelling even without it. All time great defender, over 400 home runs, nearly 400 doubles, and over 150 stolen bases puts him in for me.

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012, 35.3% in 2020)
Career: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games
Best season (2004): 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 4 SB, 159 wRC+, 9.0 fWAR in 142 games
On the surface, Rolen doesn't look like a Hall of Famer. He was a very good hitter with "just" 316 home runs, an unremarkable .281 batting average, and a sub-.500 slugging percentage, a very good defender who picked up eight Gold Glove awards but wasn't quite Andruw Jones or Omar Vizquel out there, and only topped 150 games in a season five times. That sounds like a slam-dunk "Hall of Very Good" case to me. But the more you think about it, the better the package looks. The era in which he played was chock full of superstars, but across baseball, how many players in the late 90's/00's could match both his bat and his glove? Maybe Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr., but Griffey was already slowing down by the time Rolen came around and you'd have to really love A-Rod's glove to call it better than Rolen's. Rolen really was a superb defender that could impact the game from third base throughout his career, making entire infields around him better from the late 90's Phillies to even the early 10's Reds. On top of that, I think his bat was more than just "good." From 1997-2004, he had more than 20 home runs and at least a .357 on-base percentage in all eight seasons, then topped those numbers again in 2006. Rolen had six seasons in his career in which he hit 25 home runs with at least a .370 on-base percentage, and narrowly missed a seventh. In 2004, he had a truly Hall of Fame-worthy season with 34 home runs and a .314/.409/.598 slash line to go with elite defense, which caps it off for me. I won't die on the hill that Rolen is a Hall of Famer, but to me, his combination of a very good glove, a very good bat, and an elite 2004 season are just enough to push him over the edge.

RF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014, 5.5% in 2020)
Career: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games
Best season (1999): 20 HR, .335/.446/.549, 27 SB, 6.3 fWAR in 152 games
I've had a fairly similar thought process on Bobby Abreu as I had on Scott Rolen. On the surface, he looks like he belongs in the Hall of Very Good. He hit fewer than 300 home runs, slugged well below .500, and didn't have Rolen's elite defense. However, the longer I look at his case, the more I buy in. There's just something to be said for consistency, and if anything, Abreu was consistent. In 13 straight seasons from 1998-2010, Abreu topped 150 games, hit at least 15 home runs, stole at least 19 bases, clubbed at least 29 doubles, and never posted an on-base percentage below .352. Zoom in a little bit closer to his peak, and the numbers get even more impressive. In a seven year stretch from 1999-2005, he hit at least 20 home runs, stole at least 22 bases, clubbed at least 35 doubles, and never had an OBP below .393. There were no true superstar seasons in there, but for a very long period of time without exception, Abreu was a true power, speed, and on-base threat, and as far as we know, he did it cleanly in an era where many players did not. As with Rolen, I won't die on this hill, but I see a very compelling case here, especially with that .395 on-base percentage that topped .420 three times.

RF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009, 30.5% in 2020)
Career: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games
Best season (1996): 42 HR, .314/.465/.624, 16 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 161 games
Gary Sheffield might have the most complicated Hall of Fame case on the ballot, and he was the last player that I was able to come to a decision on. I'm extremely on the fence but decided to put him in. Firstly, I'll address Sheffield's reputation as a locker room cancer – while it obviously doesn't help his case, I'm not going to hold it against him. I'm here to judge how he impacted the game, not whether I'd want to have a beer with him. Next off, there's the question of steroids. He admitted to using "the cream" on his bum knee in the early 2000's, though claims (somewhat unconvincingly) that he didn't know it was a steroid. He was also named in the Mitchell Report, but to my knowledge, there's no concrete proof that he ever did anything beyond using "the cream." I'll come back to the steroids when I'm done with his accomplishments
Steroids aside, I see Sheffield as a Hall of Famer. As with Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu, I wouldn't die on that hill, but I feel fully comfortable, in fact more comfortable than with those two. Even if he was a poor defender, we have a man who crushed over 500 home runs with an on-base percentage near .400. He had eight seasons with over 30 home runs, had six qualified seasons with at least a 154 wRC+, had an on-base percentage over .400 in eight straight seasons, and was one of the very best hitters in baseball from 1995-2003. To me, that's a very convincing Hall of Fame resume. Now, let's talk steroids. If he was more borderline in his case, the steroids would disqualify him. And if he used steroids more than just "the cream" for a few years, I wouldn't vote for him either. But we don't (or at least I don't) know the answer to that question, and I believe in "innocent until proven guilty." After a lot of careful thought, he gained my vote, but just barely.

LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007, 60.7% in 2020)
Career: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games
Best season (2001): 73 HR, .328/.515/.863, 13 SB, 235 wRC+, 12.5 fWAR in 153 games
I don't need to sell anybody on Barry Bonds' numbers. Steroids aside, you can count on one hand the players that can even compare to what Bonds did. I also don't need to sell anybody that he would have been a Hall of Famer without steroids. If you think he might not have been, you're grossly underselling his elite batting eye, approach at the plate, hand-eye coordination, and early career speed. So the only question here is whether you think steroids should disqualify one of the greatest players of all time, which I discussed here. In summary, as much as I hate it, cheating has always been a part of baseball and on top of that, it was encouraged during the Steroid Era.
Okay, now that that's done with, let's just marvel at some of Bonds' career stats. He is the all time leader in home runs (762) and walks (2558) and ranks behind only Babe Ruth in fWAR (164.4). He's third all time in runs scored (2227), fifth in wRC+ (173), and sixth in RBI (1996). From 1928-2000, not a single player could tally more than 11.8 fWAR in a season. Over the course of four seasons from 2001-2004, Bonds did it three times. By wRC+, three of the top four seasons in all of history belong to Bonds, including number one (244 in 2002). In that four season stretch from 2001-2004, Bonds clobbered 209 home runs and slashed .349/.559/.809 with a 232 wRC+ and 47.3 fWAR in 573 games. That 47.3 fWAR over four seasons was more than Mark Grace (45.5), Nellie Fox (45.2), Kirby Puckett (44.9), or Dale Murphy (44.3) had in their entire careers. It cannot possibly be overstated how good Barry Bonds was at hitting baseballs.

RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007, 61.0% in 2020)
Career: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 IP
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 IP
Best season (1997): 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 292/68 K/BB in 264 IP
With Roger Clemens, we have a similar story to Barry Bonds above. He's not a top-five player of all time like his counterpart, but steroids aside, he is far and away qualified. There's no doubt in anybody's mind that he would be a Hall of Famer without steroids. And given that he was up against lineups full of cheating players, it's hard to blame him for cheating, as much as I hate it. Read my full thoughts on steroids here.
Steroids aside, we can appreciate Clemens' numbers. He topped 210 innings fourteen times in his career, had eleven qualified seasons with an ERA below 3.00, and topped 230 strikeouts eight times. In terms of career strikeouts, only Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson have more, but Clemens had a lower ERA than both of them. He's seventh on the all time list with 707 career starts, too. Maybe not quite in the all time top tier, but he's certainly one of the all time greats.

No Votes

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013, 29.2% in 2020)
Career: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games
Best season (2000): 42 HR, .372/.463/.698, 5 SB, 162 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 160 games
Todd Helton only narrowly misses my ballot. From 1999-2005, he was one of the very best hitters in baseball, slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs and a 152 wRC+ in 1092 games. That wRC+, which corrects for the "Coors effect," was the sixth best in baseball in that span over no small sample size. Narrow it by one year to 2000-2005, and his 156 wRC+ was fifth best in baseball to start the millennium. That's absolutely a Hall of Fame piece of the resume, but for a first baseman, I'm looking for just a bit more. From 2006 onwards, he hit .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs and a 112 wRC+ over 968 games, which as a first baseman in Coors Field, meant he only provided 10.6 fWAR from his age-32 season onwards. So we're left with a tale of two careers with Helton, beginning with an exceptional run from 1999-2005 followed by an unremarkable one from 2006-2013. Had he played shortstop or even a strong right field, I think that first half of his career would be enough to push him into the Hall, but the bar is higher for first basemen and Helton falls just short on the longevity aspect.

RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015, first year on ballot)
Career: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 IP
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP
Best season (2003): 16-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 162/61 K/BB in 240 IP
Tim Hudson is another one who is very close. Starting straight from his rookie year, he was a true standout in the Oakland rotation from 1999-2003 and popped back for big seasons with the Braves in 2007, 2010, and 2011. Outside of those seasons, he was still a very solid #2/#3-type starter, and in the end you have a really nice profile as a pitcher with ten qualified seasons with an ERA below 3.60. However, save for maybe his best season in 2003, Hudson was never a star. That's not straight up disqualifying, as we saw with Bobby Abreu, but I'm going to need either more consistency or more longevity if I'm going to overlook that. Abreu had the consistency, Scott Rolen had that huge 2004 season, and a guy like Derek Jeter had the longevity that just bumped them into the Hall. Hudson, as a whole, as a resume that's just a little bit light. We knew we were watching a perennial All Star when Hudson was on the mound, don't think anybody thought they were watching a Hall of Famer. In my opinion, we weren't.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015, first year on ballot)
Career: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 IP
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 IP
Best season (2005): 16-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 149/40 K/BB in 236.2 IP
I still don't think Mark Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, but his case actually gets a lot more intriguing the more you look at it. On the surface, he was a pitch-to-contact guy who never had an ERA below 3.12 and finished at 3.81 for his career while spending most of it in the weaker AL Central. He was never a true ace for more than a few months at a time, but the key here is consistency. Buehrle put in fourteen consecutive seasons of at least 200 innings, and narrowly missed a fifteenth with 198.2 in 2015. In those fifteen seasons from 2001-2015, only once did he post an ERA above 4.28, and never did he walk more than 6.2% of his opponents. He was an elite defender, was the best pitcher on the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox team, and threw a perfect game in 2009. There is really something to be said for a decade and a half of exceptional reliability and exceptional consistency, and I really hope he doesn't fall off the ballot in the first year. However, he was never elite for even one season, so he won't get my vote.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013, 11.3% in 2020)
Career: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 IP
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 IP
Best season (2005): 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 171/41 K/BB in 222.1 IP
Andy Pettitte is yet another pitcher who just misses for me. He put up excellent seasons in 1997 and 2005 and was very good in a few other seasons, and there's something to be said for the longevity it takes to put up ten seasons of 200+ innings and three more of 185+. He was also on the mound for 276.2 innings in the postseason, holding his own with a 3.81 ERA against plenty of very strong lineups. That's all great, but for the majority of his career, Pettitte was much more a steady than imposing force in the Yankees and Astros rotations. In more than half of his qualified seasons, his ERA was above 4.00, and he regularly got hit around with career opponents' batting average of .269 and a 1.35 WHIP. The longevity is great, the important role on some great teams is a plus, and he popped for a couple of great seasons, but Andy Pettitte is a #3 starter at heart. The Hall of Fame is for aces and long-term, consistent #2's.

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008, 27.5% in 2020)
Career: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games
Best season (2000): 33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 12 SB, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 159 games
Jeff Kent is another one that's really close, one that I gave significant thought to before ultimately deciding "no." He put up nine consecutive seasons of more than 20 home runs and at least 34 doubles from 1997-2005 and topped 30 home runs three times. In 2000 and 2002, he popped for exceptional seasons and won the NL MVP Award in the former while reaching the World Series in the latter. But while he was an extra base hit machine for the better part of a decade, popping for an OBP as high as .424 in 2000, is that enough? I see a nice, sustained peak, but it's the kind that would need a little more longevity sandwiched on either side of it. Outside of that 1997-2005 stretch, he was solid but unspectacular leading up to it and didn't play after 2008. Seventeen years is a nice career, especially since he played over 100 games in each, but I would have liked to have seen just a little bit more given his peak was more "great" than "elite."

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012, 52.6% in 2020)
Career: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games
Best season (1999): 5 HR, .333/.397/.436, 42 SB, 115 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 144 games
Omar Vizquel follows similar logic to Andruw Jones as an all-time great defender whose offensive numbers don't quite stack up. However, the difference between Vizquel and Jones is that Jones hit 434 home runs, while Vizquel was a non-factor in the lineup. His combination of exceptional glovework and longevity buys the bat as much slack as possible, but in my opinion, it's not enough. From 1989-2007, he had sixteen full seasons out of nineteen, itself an accomplishment, but his bat was a virtual black hole in the Seattle, Cleveland, and San Francisco lineups around him at a time when offense was at a premium. In those sixteen full seasons, his bat was only league average or better twice, reaching double digits in home runs just once. His best offensive attribute was his speed, and he deployed it well at times with four straight seasons of at least 35 stolen bases from 1996-1999, but he never registered a .400 on-base percentage and only twice even got above .362. I'm sorry, but even if he came within 123 hits of 3000, his bat was mediocre at best.

LF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011, 28.2% in 2020)
Career: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games
Best season (1999): 44 HR, .333/.442/.663, 2 SB, 172 wRC+, 7.5 fWAR in 147 games
I briefly touched on my thoughts on Manny Ramirez in my steroid primer, but I'll go back over them here. Taken objectively, his numbers make him a pretty clear-cut Hall of Famer, even if his defense was poor. 555 career home runs, twelve 30 homer seasons, ten with an on-base percentage over .400, and plenty of postseason performance add up to a Hall of Fame resume. From 1994-2010, he put up seventeen straight seasons with at least a 120 wRC+, and fifteen of those were 140 or higher. But in 2009, he failed a PED test, and in 2011, he failed another. Both were late in his career, after he had already eclipsed 500 home runs and proven himself a Hall of Famer. If it had been just the 2009 test, perhaps I could give him the benefit of the doubt and buy that he had just made a mistake. But after the 2011 test, his whole career gets called into question. Plenty of his best production came during the Steroid Era – was he cheating then? He doesn't have the Bonds or Clemens-like resume that proves him to be a clear-cut Hall of Famer with or without steroids. He tested positive twice after the rules were clearly laid out, so I'm out.

RF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007, 13.9% in 2020)
Career: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games
Best season (2001): 64 HR, .328/.437/.737, 0 SB, 186 wRC+, 9.9 fWAR in 160 games
Sosa is another name that falls victim to the steroid problem. The allegations against him aren't as strong as they are against Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Manny Ramirez, but nonetheless they're stronger than those against Gary Sheffield, whom I voted for. Sosa reportedly tested positive in 2003, and of course there was the corked bat incident. If he had built a convincing, Ramirez-like case, I might have put more consideration into it, but unfortunately he's fairly borderline anyways. From 1998-2001, when he was likely juicing, he put together one of the most impressive offensive stretches in baseball history, slashing .310/.396/.662 with 243 home runs, including totals of 66, 63, 50, and 64. However, for the most part, Sosa was a one dimensional player. He hit a lot of home runs, but he only twice topped a .400 on-base percentage, never put up 40 doubles in a season, and provided very little defensive value. That one tool would likely be enough to carry him into the Hall if it had been clean, but his only tool was tainted and he doesn't have enough to make up for it.

Steroids and the Hall of Fame: My 2021 Take

My views on steroids have evolved over time. At my core, I hate cheaters. Integrity is an extremely important value of mine, and I try to embody it in everything I do. In high school, I made the varsity team but rarely played simply because most other players were bigger, faster, and stronger than me, clocking in at about 5'8" and 160 pounds. That's not an excuse, and plenty of players smaller than me have succeeded; it's just reality. So when I see guys cheating to get an edge, it really sits wrong with me. And it really does damage the game, so for a while, I was a straight up "no" on steroid users, including Bonds and Clemens.

However, I also have to look at reality. As much as I wish it wasn't, cheating is as much a part of the game as sunflower seeds and eye black. Pitchers have been hiding files and pine tar and who knows what else in their gloves since they started wearing them, and we know many stars of the 1950's and 1960's were hopped up on amphetamines. The recent Astros scandal may be the most publicized, but we know that electronic sign stealing goes far beyond Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora in the game's history.

So if Willie Mays, Ted Williams, and countless other "cheaters" are Hall of Famers, what's to say Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are any different? They're two of the best ever to play the game, roids or no roids. And we know that MLB was, at least tacitly, encouraging the use of steroids during the late 1990's and early 2000's, and the man in charge of baseball at the time is now in the Hall of Fame. For players whose Hall of Fame-worthy production was likely a product of steroids, such as Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, and Mark McGwire, I do not believe they should gain admission. Steroids in that era should not keep Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens out of the Hall, because they clearly would have made it even without taking them, but they shouldn't put someone like McGwire over the hump.

Lastly, we have a new category of steroid use showing up in Manny Ramirez that will continue in the future with names like Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano. That's usage in the post-steroid era where the line between right and wrong was not nearly as blurred. With that, we obviously have to go case by case. For a borderline player, that's an automatic "no" for me. For one with a clear or fairly clear HoF resume such as Ramirez, I think if it's plausible that it was one mistake and that their career was not a product of steroids, they should still get in. Of course, that doesn't apply to Ramirez himself, since he tested positive twice. But I do value "innocent until proven guilty," and that's why you'll see Gary Sheffield on my ballot.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 27th.

The third conference in our draft preview series, the ACC class is shaping up very differently than the Big 12 and the SEC.

The Big 12 is led by big arms in Texas’ Ty Madden and Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks, but is virtually devoid of true impact bats. Meanwhile, the SEC has some big name bats in Florida’s Jud Fabian, Arkansas’ Christian Franklin, and Tennessee’s duo of Jake Rucker and Max Ferguson, but aside from Fabian, most of the bats in the conference have a lot to prove in 2021. Meanwhile, here in the ACC, we’re absolutely loaded with offensive firepower, to the point that only two pitchers crack the ACC’s top ten prospects. They say that SEC hitters have to face a “gauntlet” of high powered arms, and that’s certainly true this year with too many to name. Over in the ACC, it will be the pitchers who will have to run down a gauntlet of high powered lineups.

Louisville, after putting five players into pro ball last year despite the shortened draft, dominates this list with two of the top three and four of the top ten names and a couple more who just missed the cut. Miami, who lost its entire weekend rotation but brings in arguably the top recruiting class in the entire country, will be a hotspot for 2021 draft talent as well, and Boston College might have the best collection of talent in recent program memory. Below are the top ten 2021 prospects in the ACC, followed by a team by team rundown of other names to watch (with apologies to Pittsburgh and my alma mater, Virginia Tech, who just don’t have much going for them).

1. C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 210 lbs. Born 9/27/1999. Hometown: Miami, FL
2019-2020: 14 HR, .336/.430/.571, 4 SB, 32/43 K/BB in 77 games.

Ironically, the top offensive prospects in the SEC (Jud Fabian) and ACC share a birthday on September 27th, only Adrian Del Castillo will be turning 21 and Fabian will be turning 20 because he reclassified. Del Castillo is simply a hitter – he hit .331/.418/.576 as a true freshman, then .358/.478/.547 as a sophomore, and sandwiched between that was a respectable .273/.323/.427 line in the elite Cape Cod League as a teenager. Not only is he the ACC’s top offensive prospect this year, he’s right up there with Fabian and UCLA’s Matt McLain as arguably college baseball’s top offensive prospect as a whole.

The bat is legit. A left handed hitter, Del Castillo combines a clean, compact swing with great extension through the ball and plenty of strength packed into his 5’11” frame. This enables the Miami native to show above average power in games, and with five home runs on the Cape as a teenager, he can get to it with wood bats and against high level pitching. More impressive than his power, however, is his professional approach at the plate. He’s extremely disciplined with just a 12.9% strikeout rate for his career at Miami compared to a 17.3% walk rate, and that’s been against a tough schedule. He should have no trouble not only handling professional pitching, but hitting for impact.

Del Castillo's defense is another story. The exceptional feel he shows for hitting carries over behind the plate, where he's a fundamentally sound catcher who gets the job done all around. However, he lacks the explosive arm strength of many of his contemporaries and the raw athleticism to create the "brick wall" effect. Given his work ethic and feel for the game, it's easy to see him working his way towards average defense, and if he can indeed stick behind the plate, the bat will be special. Even if he's forced off of catcher to first base or left field, where he'd likely be below average, the bat is potent enough to still warrant a first round selection. At his ceiling, Del Castillo could produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.

2. C Henry Davis, Louisville – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/21/1999. Hometown: Bedford, NY
2019-2020: 6 HR, .303/.381/.463, 1 SB, 22/21 K/BB in 59 games.

The ACC starts off with not one, but two elite catchers, though Henry Davis is a very different prospect from Adrian Del Castillo. A well-known defense-first prospect coming out of the New York high school ranks, he made it to Louisville and held his own with a .280/.345/.386 slash line as a freshman, elevating his stock a little bit. Then, he returned as a sophomore in 2020 and smoked the baseball nonstop, slashing .372/.481/.698 with three home runs and twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games. And while the schedule wasn’t particularly strong, he did pick up four hits, including three doubles, in eight at bats (plus two walks) against Ole Miss and homered against Wake Forest. The result is a defense-first catcher who suddenly knows how to hit, which is, you know, ideal.

Let’s talk about that bat. It was pretty light in high school, not uncommon for catchers even heading to premium programs like Louisville. The first thing he showed as a freshman was the hit tool, as he struck out in just 12.2% of his plate appearances – very impressive for a 19 year old in the ACC. Then in 2020, albeit in a small sample size, came the power, when he homered in his final two games against Wake Forest and Chicago State. Davis derives that power from a crouched load, using his legs to explode outwards at the baseball and plus bat to ball skills to find the barrel more and more consistently.There’s some minor bat wrap in that setup, but that above average to potentially plus hit tool allows me to be comfortable with it overall. The overall setup might need to be quieted just a bit in pro ball, but again, with his great feel for the barrel, I’m not worried.

On defense, he has always stood out for an exceptional right arm that can virtually shut down the running game, having thrown out 12/33 runners so far at Louisville. His glovework is more ordinary, but as with Del Castillo, it’s trending in the right direction and he should be a net-positive overall with that arm. He’ll more than likely stick behind the plate, making his offensive profile much more appealing. If he can continue hitting in 2021 like he did in 2020, when he showed a plus hit tool and solid average power in a small sample, he could vault himself into top ten pick consideration, much like Dillon Dingler may have with more opportunity last year.

3. 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3, 210 lbs. Born 5/26/2000. Hometown: Oak Creek, WI
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.

Henry Davis just edges out Alex Binelas on my draft board, but Binelas might have the most exciting bat in the Louisville lineup, itself one of the strongest in the entire country. Hailing from the Milwaukee-area prep ranks, he burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019 and slashed .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and 33 extra base hits overall in 59 games, immediately establishing himself as one of the top names in a draft that was still two years away at the time. His encore in 2020 ended abruptly when he injured his hand against Ole Miss in just the second game of the season, so for now, all we have to go off is that exceptional freshman season.

The very first thing I notice with Binelas, beyond the numbers, is his swing. It’s lightning quick and incredibly explosive, allowing him to punish velocity by sending the baseball impressive distances. It can get a little choppy at times, which leads to some swing and miss questions, but it’s hard to teach bat speed like that. His plate discipline was decent but nothing special in that big freshman season, though it’s a bit unfair to judge his approach based on a freshman run through the ACC. 2021 will be a big opportunity for him to elevate his stock in that regard, especially considering the tangential questions about his hit tool. Still, you don’t knock 33 extra base hits as a freshman in the ACC without at least some feel for hitting, and his offensive upside is perhaps the best in the ACC.

On defense, we see somewhat of a similar story. Binelas shows a strong arm from third base, though he’s a bit choppy with the glove and makes for a decent overall third baseman. A few years ago, scouts might have been comfortable calling it “good enough” and letting him deploy that arm over there, but with shifting becoming a huge part of a third baseman’s job, his range becomes a little more stretched. That could lead to a move to first base or right field depending on his progress, where the pressure would increase on his hit tool. He has some to prove in 2021, but his combination of upside and college track record will be hard to match anywhere in the draft.

4. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’9″, 175 lbs. Born 4/2000. Hometown: Lexington, MA
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.

Boston College has the best group of draft talent it’s seen in years, and right at the top of that list is Sal Frelick. Though smaller in stature, he’s exploding with tools and jumped out to a .367/.447/.513 slash line with 18 stolen bases and more walks (22) than strikeouts as a freshman in 2019. Though his 2020 started slower before the shutdown (.241/.380/.414), he picked it right back up in summer ball with a .398/.473/.592 run through the FCBL. No question, this kid can flat out play.

Frelick’s big numbers have mostly come from a true plus hit tool, which has enabled him to strike out in just 8.8% of his plate appearances so far at Boston College. Though undersized, his exceptional feel for the barrel combined with innate athleticism enables him to hit for more power than you’d expect, with plenty of doubles, triples, and even home runs. The Boston-area native shows plus-plus speed that has enabled him to steal 25 bases in 28 tries at BC, and that becomes 35 bases in 39 tries when combined with his summer stats. He shows great range in the outfield and should be an asset in center field, giving him nearly the total package.

Let’s talk swing mechanics. Frelick has a simple swing in which he keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, which is a good thing, and when he gets his pitch, it can be a really smooth, pretty swing at that. His mechanics can vary more than most tend to, and when he doesn’t get his pitch, he tends to flail at the ball. The good news is that his elite barrel control still enables him to make very consistent contact on those pitches, and strikeouts have never been even remotely a concern. Watching him hit, it’s actually pretty impressive to see him way out on his front foot and still drop singles the other way or put difficult pitches in play, but going forward he’ll probably want to accept a little more swing and miss so that he can get his “A” swing off more often than not. With his strong pitch recognition skills, a more consistently upright Frelick could be a true impact hitter at the next level, despite being one of the smallest guys on the field.

5. RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/12/1999. Hometown: Sudbury, MA
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 innings.

In contrast to the hitters, there aren’t any truly complete pitching prospects in the ACC. Ryan Cusick can’t even be considered the closest in that regard, but the stuff is nonetheless exciting. Though he hails from the Boston suburbs, Cusick attended the Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer and 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin, and looks to be the latest in a strong line of baseball players from the Hartford-area powerhouse. His freshman season was pretty ordinary in 2019, putting up a 6.44 ERA and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio across 65.2 innings, but he raised a lot of eyebrows in 2020 when his stuff took a big step forward. That led to a 3.22 ERA and a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, and in this case, scouting the stat line does indeed tell the story.

Cusick is a 6’6″ right hander with wicked stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, can bump as high as 97-98, and you’ll notice in this video that he hit 95 on his 103rd and final pitch of the game against Louisville. He can also rip off a wicked slider with serious bite, a true plus pitch at its best, but at times it can flatten out considerably. His third pitch is his changeup, which he doesn’t use often, but he can flash a solid average one with nice fade to the arm side. All of this was on full display in the Coastal Plain League over the summer, where he dominated with a 1.14 ERA and a 40/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings.

Of course, the big question here is command and consistency, with the aforementioned breaking ball problems and the fact that he walked 18 batters in 22.1 innings last year. Prior to that, though, he had only walked 36 batters in 101.1 innings between his freshman season and the Cape Cod League, and then he walked just nine in 23.2 innings this summer. That suggests that he may simply need time to learn to harness that newfound stuff, and if the summer numbers are telling the truth, he already has. Cusick is a prime contender for a breakout in 2021, one who could rocket up boards similarly to how Bobby Miller did so a year ago. He clearly has the arm strength to start, so if he can just take even incremental steps forward with his consistency and command, good things will happen to his projections. If not, he has a high floor as a fastball/slider reliever who could see high leverage innings in the big leagues.

6. 2B Cody Morissette, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 1/16/2000. Hometown: Exeter, NH
2019-2020: 6 HR, .346/.402/.512, 11 SB, 43/29 K/BB in 73 games.

Sal Frelick and his teammate Cody Morissette form arguably the best 1-2 lineup punch in college baseball, and while they have put up similar numbers at Boston College, they’re very different players. Morissette gave a strong first impression as a freshman in 2019, hitting .320/.371/.476 across 58 games, then exploded for a .448/.522/.655 line in 15 games a s a sophomore in 2020. That wasn’t a product of a weak schedule, as he picked up six hits in three games against Arizona State and eight hits in three games against Clemson.

We could go on and on about how Frelick’s tools impact the game, but with Morissette, he just hits – and I mean that as a compliment. He has no trouble squaring up advanced pitching with a very steady hit tool and emerging power, and he’s been extremely consistent at BC. It may seem like a high-floor, low-ceiling projection, but that consistent bat has shown more and more impact over time and he could be ready for a very loud 2021 campaign. At six feet tall, the New Hampshire native doesn’t have a big frame but isn’t the smallest guy on the field either, so the hope is that he could end up with a 15-20 home run bat down the line.

Defensively, Morissette won’t wow anybody, looking more than capable at second base but probably a bit stretched at shortstop. If he doesn’t generate enough impact to start, he could handle the prime position on a part time basis, and his experience all over the diamond aids him in the shifting era. Personally, I see some Keston Hiura here (albeit in the other batters box), though Hiura had that huge junior season going for him and Morissette looks to be the slightly better defender. Hiura went ninth overall out of UC Irvine in 2017, so don’t sleep on Morissette’s draft ceiling if he can put together a big junior year like he’s capable of.

7. OF Robby Martin, Florida State – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 8/17/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .317/.408/.440, 3 SB, 76/45 K/BB in 80 games.

The bats just keep on coming. Leading the way in one of the most talented outfields in the country is Florida State’s Robby Martin, a steady .317/.408/.440 hitter during his time in Tallahassee. A highly touted prep outfielder coming from the Tampa area, Martin has steadily improved at FSU and now has evaluators excitedly pegging him for a breakout.

More about projection as a high schooler, Martin now has legitimate tools across the board and can impact the game in many ways. He’s maintained the above average speed and strong hit tool from high school, but with lots of added strength and a track record of hitting in college, he’s a much more complete prospect. Martin uses and opposite field approach that results in a lot of line drives and otherwise hard contact, which has enabled him to produce at FSU and in the Florida Collegiate Summer League (.313/.397/.417).

To this point, he hasn’t shown much in-game power, but he has really tacked on strength in Tallahassee and filled out his 6’3″ frame. Though his power isn’t quite as robust, he finds himself in a similar position to where Vanderbilt’s JJ Bleday was heading into the 2019 season, and a more power conscious and launch angle-conscious swing could have him headed for a breakout. If so, we could be talking straight 55 grades across almost every tool and a first round selection.

8. 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 10/19/1999. Hometown: Lewes, DE.
2019-2020: 7 HR, .321/.399/.472, 20 SB, 70/37 K/BB in 74 games.

As someone who played a lot of baseball on the Delmarva Peninsula growing up, it’s cool to see the region’s first big name draft prospect since Tyler Webb (via South Carolina in 2013). While they’re not the best at cranking out reliable pitching, UVA has a nice track record of producing competent, disciplined hitters like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, and Matt Thaiss in recent years, and Delaware native Zack Gelof is one of two big bats they’re sending out this year. He adapted to college pitching well as a freshman (.313/.377/.396), hit well in the Northwoods League over the summer (.349/.426/.490), and was off to an exceptional start in 2020 with a .349/.469/.746 line and five home runs in eighteen games.

Gelof does not have one standout tool, but shows well across the board. He’s smoothed out his right handed swing since high school and has produced plenty of hard contact in college, using Davenport Field’s spacious gaps to his advantage for plenty of extra base hits. He started turning those gappers into home runs in 2020, and evaluators are excited to see if he can maintain that power surge in 2021. If so, it would help alleviate some questions about his hit tool, as he is very adept at finding the barrel but has not shown the great K/BB ratio’s seen with many of his predecessors in Charlottesville. In 2020, he upped his walk rate to a nice 15.9%, but still struck out 22% of the time after showing similar strikeout rates throughout his career.

Gelof finds himself in a good spot heading into 2020. By either maintaining his power surge or lowering his strikeout rate, he could easily find himself in the first round. However, if he can’t do either, I think most evaluators would feel more comfortable pegging a 50 hit, 50 power third baseman in the second. His glove should help him, as he’s proven very capable at third base and will easily handle shifting. There are a lot of 50’s and 55’s in his profile, not too dissimilar to Robby Martin above him on this list, though Martin is just a little bit toolsier. Gelof is praised for his feel for the game and ability to play above his tools.

9. OF Levi Usher, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 210 lbs. Born 6/25/2000. Hometown: Fairfax, IA
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 games.

The last three players on this list (Cody Morissette, Robby Martin, and Zack Gelof) did a lot of things well, but didn’t flash individual “wow” tools. Levi Usher, the third member of the Louisville lineup on this list, has wow tools. He put up some eye popping numbers at Iowa’s Kirkwood CC, slashing .409/.493/.538 with 36 stolen bases in 53 games, then kept on hitting with a similar .411/.484/.571 line and eleven stolen bases for Louisville in 2020. Together, that makes for one exciting player heading into 2021.

Usher is the prototypical “raw, toolsy athlete.” He has a very loose, athletic left handed swing and a line drive approach that has served him exceptionally well so far, absolutely beating up on weaker opponents throughout his career. Given his strength and operation, you can project some power as well, likely enough for 15-20 home runs a year in the big leagues. He does come with some strikeout concerns, but he’s done so much damage on balls in play that it’s easy to overlook those for now. Then we have the plus to plus-plus speed that has given him 47 stolen bases in 69 games between Kirkwood and Louisville, which will serve him very well on both sides of the ball. Combine “raw and toolsy” with on-base percentages near .500, and you’re in business.

The one main knock on Usher is not really his fault. He didn’t face strong competition in the Iowa JUCO ranks, and while he combined to go 10-22 against Ole Miss and Wake Forest in 2020, there hasn’t been much sample size against legitimate pitching staffs. Over two summers in the Northwoods League, he’s slashed just .261/.337/.373 with a 46/17 strikeout to walk ratio, leading to some questions as to how his approach will play against advanced pitching and how his power will play with wood bats. Still, you can’t deny the production he’s had with metal bats and the tools are outstanding, so another strong season in the Cardinals’ lineup could make him an easy first round pick. Scouts will be watching his run through ACC play very closely in 2021.

10. RHP Jack Perkins, Louisville

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 200 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN
2019: 3-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37/18 K/BB in 32.1 IP.

Our fourth member of the Louisville program to crack this top ten list, Jack Perkins is somewhat similar to Levi Usher in that he lacks much of a track record. He put up a 4.18 ERA and struck out 37 batters as a freshman reliever in 2019, but he also walked 18 in 32.1 innings and went down with Tommy John surgery in June of that year. After missing the 2020 college season, he got on the mound for 18.1 more innings in summer ball with more of the same – 2.45 ERA, 23/14 K/BB. Now a redshirt sophomore, he heads into 2021 with as much to prove as anybody.

The 6’1″ righty shows electric stuff from the right side. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out at 97 in relief, while his slider flashes plus and can miss bats in bunches. We also have a curveball and changeup, but those two pitches are well behind the fastball and slider. Perkins gets some deception from a bit of a crossfire deliver, but there is some effort there as well, which is more concerning combined with his surgery. If Perkins wants to start in pro ball, he’ll also have to improve his command considerably, as the jerk in his delivery can cause him to lose his release point.

We’re talking about a high ceiling and a low floor for Perkins, clearly. Tommy John surgery is commonplace these days and he’s fully healthy now, so if he can just get some innings under his belt, it might be all he needs to improve that command and his curve or changeup. Smoothing out his delivery would help as well, as it could be the root of his command problems. There’s a good chance he’s forced to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination could really play up, but teams would like to send him out as a starter if possible.

Other ACC Interesting Options

Boston College:

Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette provide the most exciting prospect duo the Eagles have seen in recent memory, but we’re also excited for Friday nights in Chestnut Hill. Mason Pelio is BC’s best pitching prospect since Justin Dunn, having put up a 3.73 ERA and an 81/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for his career. He lacks the explosive stuff seen in top ten ACC prospects Ryan Cusick and Jack Perkins, but he’s much more pro-ready than either of them. He has a big, durable frame at 6’3″ and has averaged five and a half innings per start, deploying a cutting low 90’s fastball and an above average changeup. His cutter means he has been adept at missing barrels, but the lack of a good breaking ball has limited his bat-missing ability and at this point he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. Improving his breaking ball to at least average would be the biggest thing he could do. With slightly above average command, fine tuning that just a little into a true 55 could take pressure off his breaking ball.

Clemson:

The Tigers didn’t put a single player in the top ten, but that doesn’t mean they’re devoid of draft talent. Davis Sharpe is the ACC’s best two-way prospect, having hit .276/.392/.431 with seven home runs at Clemson while putting up a 3.33 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings on the mound. Though he shows power and patience at the plate, his bat is probably a little light for first base, so his future is likely on the mound. His fastball sits around 90 but can touch 95, and his slider flashes above average to even plus at times. The 6’4″ righty has some effort in his delivery but does a good job of throwing strikes, and could be a breakout candidate for 2021. Neither Carter Raffield nor Mack Anglin have much in the way of track record, but both can hit the mid 90’s with their fastballs and could take big steps forward in 2021. Lastly, Adam Hackenberg was a highly touted name coming out of the Virginia high school ranks, but he’s still looking for a breakout. His cannon arm will help him stick behind the plate, taking pressure off his bat. He’s shown plus raw power in batting practice but it comes at the expense of his hit tool, with an aggressive approach and a lot of swing and miss. Any improvement in his offensive game will make him a priority for area scouts.

Duke:

A year after producing first rounder Bryce Jarvis, the Blue Devils have two names that just missed the top ten. Cooper Stinson is the younger brother of former Blue Devil and current Rays prospect Graeme Stinson, and he has momentum heading into 2021. Stinson finished 2020 with a 0.42 ERA and a 24/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 21.2 innings against a schedule that included Minnesota and Florida State. He sits around 90 with his fastball but tends to pitch above that number more than below, and his quick right arm puts nice angle on the ball. The 6’6″ righty also shows a good slider and a changeup, with his control improving in 2020 as well. Command can still be a bit shaky, but he’s one of the most complete pitchers in the ACC. We also have Ethan Murray, a career .293/.394/.434 hitter in Durham. He’s one of those guys with no standout tool but no weaknesses either, showing great plate discipline and a consistent, line drive approach at the plate. There isn’t much power at this point, but he should produce enough doubles and triples to keep pitchers honest. As with his bat, his feel for the game stands out more than his physical tools on defense, with the polish to handle shortstop but perhaps not the arm strength and athleticism. Sticking there would give him a better chance to play full time, but his most likely role is as a utility infielder who can impact the game in a lot of ways. Joey Loperfido is behind Stinson and Murray on draft boards, showing lots of average tools but having yet to put it together. A likely outfielder who has played almost everywhere, he has some power, some speed, and solid plate discipline, but he’ll need to find a way to impact the game consistently in pro ball.

Florida State:

Robby Martin is easily the best prospect in Tallahassee, but he’s part of one of the most talented outfields in college baseball with Reese Albert and Elijah Cabell. Albert was eligible in 2020 but withdrew from the draft, and now carries a career .270/.381/.491 slash line into 2021. Albert is a pretty basic “college performer” type who has shown some power, the ability to get to it in games, a patient approach, and steady overall performance. With a July birthday, he’s not much older than most first time eligible players, and brings a track record that many cannot match. He’s a bit of a sleeper to become a useful platoon or full time bat down the road. Cabell, meanwhile, was also draft eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot .263/.488/.649 start to the season. Despite being a class below Albert, he’s actually slightly older, and shows louder tools. Cabell has huge raw power and some surprising speed, but has also struck out in nearly 40% (!) of his plate appearances. Because of this, evaluators have serious questions as to whether he’ll reach that power in pro ball, coming into the 2021 draft with a similar profile to Bobby Dalbec. On the mound, Jack Anderson is a breakout candidate with a low 90’s fastball and a solid breaking ball. To this point, he’s struggled to find innings on that crowded FSU pitching staff.

Georgia Tech:

GT is another school loaded with prospects who just missed the top ten list. Luke Waddell returns a career .308/.410/.409 hitter, an extremely polished bat with great consistency. At a stocky 5’9″, he doesn’t profile for much power, and has just four career home runs for the Yellow Jackets, so the upside is limited. Given that he’ll turn 23 during the 2021 draft, he has a pretty clear high floor, utility profile. He profiles best at second base but can handle shortstop if needed. Brant Hurter is listed at 6’6″, 250 pounds, and was also eligible in 2020. He was dominant as a sophomore in 2019 (2.42 ERA, 58/14 K/BB) but missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery, and is now healthy. Hurter effectively commands a low 90’s fastball and a sharp slider, giving him a chance to start despite turning 23 shortly after the draft. He’s a bit of a sleeper. Luke Bartnicki and Cort Roedig bring more exciting stuff, but both can be enigmatic. Bartnicki was a well-known draft prospect as a high schooler and has shown flashes of dominance in Midtown Atlanta, but hasn’t put it together quite yet. His low 90’s fastball can touch 94-95 without much effort, and his low three quarters arm slot makes him tough on lefties. The 6’3″ lefty also shows a good slider that can elicit chases and miss bats when he’s ahead in the count, but his command has made everything play down so far. Roedig, meanwhile, has an unconventional windup in which he crouches, quickly replaces his feet as fast as he can, then slows up again to deliver the ball. His fastball can touch 97 with high spin rates, and his high spin slider flashes above average as well. To this point, he’s been around the strike zone but everything has been inconsistent, and he might need to settle down just a little bit to take full advantage of his stuff. He profiles as a reliever at this point but if he just calms down a little, he might be able to surprise some people.

Louisville:

The Cardinals put four names in the top ten and we’ve got even more to talk about. Michael Kirian was eligible in 2020 but went undrafted, and now with Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller out of his way, he has a chance to prove himself as a starter. The 6’6″ lefty has been untouchable with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings the last two seasons, all in relief. He has a low 90’s fastball that touches 95 as well as a good curveball, and as a starter in 2021 he’ll get to show off his less used cutter and changeup. If he can maintain his velocity in a starting role, he’ll fly up boards, because I always thought the stuff was a little light for relief. Jared Poland can challenge Davis Sharpe as the best two-way prospect in the ACC, though I still prefer Sharpe. Poland hasn’t performed much at the plate or on the mound yet for Louisville, showing a low 90’s fastball and a nice changeup on the mound combined with a good hit tool at the plate. He looked good on the Cape as a pitcher, and refining his breaking ball a little could make him a legitimate #3/#4 starter prospect. At the plate, he has started to tap some power and needs to continue that to profile as more than a utility infielder. We also have Glenn Albanese, a pure relief prospect with a mid 90’s fastball and a curveball that flashes plus. He struck out 18 of the 37 batters he faced in 2020 and more of the same could make him one of the top relief names in the draft.

Miami:

The Hurricanes pulled in a fantastic incoming recruiting class, giving Adrian Del Castillo lots of high octane arms to work with. One of those is JUCO transfer Jake Smith, who had a 1.59 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio at State College of Florida last year. The 6’5″ righty is a breakout candidate on the back of a plus fastball that can hit 97 with solid command. He’ll need to refine his offspeed pitches a bit more but could fly up boards if he does. 6’1″ lefty JP Gates is another breakout candidate who should see more innings in 2021, currently showing an above average fastball/slider combination in relief. Any uptick in velocity should make him a legitimate late inning weapon. It’s a relief projection on the surface, but with the whole weekend rotation gone from last year, he could have a chance to start, though he’ll need to refine his changeup considerably. Lastly, Alex Toral‘s name has been thrown around for a while now, and he blasted 24 home runs in 61 games in 2019. Obviously, he’s a power hitter, and he also shows nice patience at the plate that should help him tap it in pro ball. The swing is a bit grooved and gives me some Matt Adams vibes.

North Carolina:

By far, UNC’s best draft prospect is infielder Danny Serretti. The New Jersey native will get plenty of comps to crosstown rival Ethan Murray over at Duke, showing a steady profile rather than a toolsy one. He doesn’t have much power in his 6’1″ frame but did hit 18 doubles as a freshman, showing a line drive bat and a knack for getting on base. He has a chance to stick at shortstop, which will make his bat more attractive, but he didn’t show much impact on the Cape in 2019. Scouts will be looking for more gap power to project more impact in pro ball. We also have the unproven Joe Charles, who has touched 97 with his fastball but is otherwise a one tool player. He’ll need significant refinement in his command and added power to his slurvy breaking balls, which do have potential.

North Carolina State:

The Wolfpack get back Tyler McDonough, who was undrafted in 2020 despite a career .327/.407/.473 line. He’s a college performer with strong plate discipline and some ambush power, a bit of a sleeper given his 5’10” frame. He’ll be 22 before draft day but could quietly hit his way up the ranks. Jose Torres is the Pack’s top draft prospect, a glove-first shortstop who can get to any ball he wants. His bat was considered very light coming out of high school near Baltimore, but he burst onto the scene with a .333/.369/.533 line and three home runs as a freshman in 2020. Draft eligible with a 1999 birthday, he’s very skinny at six feet tall but could grow into some power if he starts generating more leverage with his swing. His plate discipline is very raw at this point, so cleaning it up will be a big priority for 2021, but that glove buys his bat plenty of slack and if he continues the hot hitting he showed in 2020, look out.

Virginia:

Joining Zack Gelof in that strong UVA lineup will be Nic Kent, who just missed the top ten list. Kent has hit everywhere he’s gone, including .335/.426/.450 in Charlottesville and .373/.420/.464 in the Northwoods League. He has a simple, line drive swing that produces hard contact to all fields, and he rarely swings and misses. That hit tool is clearly his best attribute, but if he can a) tap some more power from his 6’2″ frame or b) prove he can stick at shortstop, he has first round aspirations. Andrew Abbott is one of the top returning undrafted arms, and looks to be one of the top relievers in the class. He’s a smaller lefty at 6′, but makes up for it with a bulldog mentality on the mound and a strong fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low 90’s, nothing crazy, but the curveball is a true weapon and he goes right after hitters. We also have Mike Vasil, who was a top draft prospect coming out of the Boston area high school ranks in 2018, but he has not developed as expected. After hitting 96 in high school, he’s been closer to 90 in college and dips below that number fairly often. His breaking balls haven’t really come along and lack finish to this point, but his changeup his lone above average pitch. Vasil has a great body at 6’4″ and plenty of arm strength, so scouts will be watching closely to see if he can regain that old form. The talent is absolutely there and if he can add a tick or two back to his fastball, he might have some similarities to last year’s Tommy Mace.

Wake Forest:

The Demon Deacons bring a couple of big bats back who were draft eligible last year. Bobby Seymour hit .377/.439/.576 as a sophomore in 2019, but otherwise has been more solid than great, which isn’t quite enough for a first baseman. He’ll look to tap more power from his big 6’4″, 250 pound frame. Meanwhile, Chris Lanzilli has a fairly similar profile, having hit .347/.409/.620 in a big sophomore season in 2019 with a career .314/.394/.594 line and 31 home runs. He’s a big power bat, more so than Seymour, but scouts see him more as a college performer than a pro masher. He’s plenty strong enough to project for above average pop, but he’s not quite as explosive as some of the other power hitters in this class and will be 23 on draft day.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 6th

Last time, we started off with the Top Draft Prospects in the Big 12, which is my home conference now that I’m based in Dallas-Fort Worth. Shifting eastward, we’ll take a look at the SEC Top MLB Draft Prospects, the best conference in college baseball year in and year out, and 2021 is no exception. Like the Big 12, we’re definitely pitcher-heavy here due to the simple fact that it’s easier to show a velocity bump or uptick in stuff over a small sample than it is to show improvement in plate discipline or power, but there are definitely more bats here than in the Big 12.

The SEC boasts arguably the top two prospects in the draft in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and for some, Jud Fabian makes it the top three. The usual suspects in Vanderbilt and Florida are absolutely overflowing with talent, but the SEC is a strong conference from top to bottom and every team has players to watch. Mississippi State in particular has a really interesting group of arms that all offer something a little different. Without further ado, here are the top 2021 draft prospects in the SEC.

1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 255 lbs. Born 11/22/1999. Hometown: Athens, GA
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.

No surprises here, Kumar Rocker is the top prospect in the SEC. And in the entire draft, for that matter. We all know Rocker’s story; a clear first round talent coming out of the Georgia high school ranks in 2018, he knew he hadn’t yet hit his ceiling and headed north to Vanderbilt for school. His freshman year went about as well as humanly possible, of course highlighted by his 19 strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the super regionals, and that success continued into his sophomore season when he struck out 28 batters in 15 innings of work. No pitcher in the country can come close to matching his combination of stuff, upside, polish, and track record.

So what makes Kumar Rocker so great? We’ll start with the stuff. The big right hander is listed at 6’4″ and 255 pounds, and he looks it for sure. The fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can hit 97-98 pretty easily, and it’s tough to pick out out of his hand. His bread and butter is a wicked, easy plus slider that dives under bats late and has made many a seasoned college hitter look silly. When he winds up a regular on Pitching Ninja in the majors, that pitch will be the reason. Lastly, it’s easy to overlook his changeup behind that power fastball/slider combination, but even his third pitch is regularly above average with great sinking action down in the zone.

Usually, these big, hard throwing underclassmen with explosive stuff need a little refining, but Rocker is actually pretty polished. His delivery features a lot of movement, but it’s smooth, coordinated, and athletic and he repeats it very well. That enables him to be an above average strike thrower, and with an extremely competitive, bulldog mentality on the mound, he pounds the zone and goes right after hitters. Of course, when you’re talking about the potential first overall pick, you’re obligated to nitpick, and the nitpicks on Rocker are that his control is ahead of his command, the command can be a little inconsistent, and his delivery might need just a little smoothing out. Still, nothing is glaring, and just a little more consistency with his command could easily make him a true ace.

2. RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/21/2000. Hometown: Summit, NJ
2020: 2-0, 1.72 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 15.2 IP.

Like his rotation-mate, Jack Leiter was a highly touted high school prospect and could have gone in the first round in 2019 out of the New Jersey high school ranks. Because he was extremely old for a high schooler and older than many college freshmen at the time, he’s draft eligible already as a sophomore, and it took just one start to establish himself in the very top tier of the class. In his first collegiate start, he took the mound against South Alabama and struck out twelve over five no-hit innings, then he cruised to a strong start against Evansville before a so-so outing against TCU. With just 15.2 innings under his belt, he’s already one of the most polished pitchers in the class.

Leiter can’t quite match Rocker’s stuff, but there is still plenty to like. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and tops out around 95 early in games, but even though he’s on the smaller side at six feet tall, it plays well above its velocity due to elite extension for his size. Teams increasingly look for that long extension that puts flat plane on the ball, and Leiter gets it. His best secondary pitch is a potentially plus curveball with tremendous depth, albeit with low to mid 70’s velocity. He’s begun working in a slider more that’s an average pitch for now, but he can rattle off some good ones and given his feel for pitching, it’s easy to envision him getting consistently above average with that pitch. With low to mid 80’s velocity, it also gets nice velocity separation from his curveball. Lastly, he flashes above average with his changeup as well but doesn’t use it as much.

That’s quite the repertoire, but what makes it really play up is his advanced feel to change speeds and spot his pitches. As we did with Kumar Rocker, we have to nitpick a little bit just because we’re talking about the very top of the draft here, and that’s just how it goes. You have to love Leiter’s feel for his craft, and he certainly has all the intangibles to succeed at the major league level. But we are talking about a fastball that often dips into the 90-91 range and a curve that can get down to 71-72, which isn’t exactly power stuff from a six foot pitcher, and he might have a little less margin for error than guys like Rocker. Additionally, the “burden of proof” is higher for command pitchers than for guys with loud stuff, and Leiter has thrown just 15.2 innings so far (with eight walks) at the collegiate level – he’ll have to prove over a full season that his command is all that it’s cracked up to be. If he does, he has a great chance to challenge for that 1-1 spot.

3. OF Jud Fabian, Florida

Bat: R. Throw: L. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/27/2000. Hometown: Ocala, FL
2019-2020: 12 HR, .250/.368/.466, 9 SB, 63/41 K/BB in 73 games.

While Jack Leiter is extremely old for his class, Jud Fabian enrolled early at Florida in 2019 and finds himself as one of the youngest juniors in his class, more than five months younger than the sophomore Leiter. He won’t turn 21 until well after the draft, and he’ll have multiple years of SEC play under his belt by then. Despite his age, he held his own as an 18 year old freshman in 2019, slashing .232/.353/.411 with seven home runs over 56 games against a tough SEC schedule. Fabian was off to an even hotter start against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, slashing .294/.407/.603 with five home runs in 17 games, including one off of the Diamondbacks’ 32nd overall pick, Slade Cecconi. Combine that with a pair of strong summers on the Cape in 2019 and in the Florida League in 2020, and Fabian has more amateur track record than any teenager in the country.

With Fabian, we’re not talking about any one loud tool. As you would expect given all the hitting he’s done as a teenager, his natural feel for the game is what stands out the most and it helps his tools, which are all at least average across the board, play up. The Ocala native has a very disciplined approach at the plate, recognizing balls from strikes and improving in his ability to recognize offspeed pitches as well. However, he does need to improve his raw bat to ball skills, because even if his pitch selection is advanced, he tends to swing and miss within the strike zone a bit more than you’d expect. At a listed 6’2″ and 195 pounds, he has a nice balance of power and athleticism in his frame, and at this point he regularly flashes above average raw and game power from a loose, balanced swing. As he continues to refine his hit tool (which I am separating from his “eye tool”), there is a chance he ends up with plus power down the road if everything breaks right.

An above average runner, Fabian’s feel for the game translates to his defense as well and he profiles to stick in center field long term, which in turn makes his offensive profile look even better. Given his youth, it’s not hard to dream on him continuing to improve at the plate and tapping into his true five tool potential, in which case he could project for 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his ceiling. Profiling easily within the top ten picks and getting plenty of looks within the top five picks at this point, teams will want to see big production against SEC pitching in 2021, which could solidify him as the top position player prospect in college baseball. Fabian’s current competitors in that regard are Miami’s Adrian Del Castillo, UCLA’s Matt McLain, and Louisville’s Alex Binelas.

4. RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 235 lbs. Born 12/12/1999. Hometown: Ashdown, AR
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.

“Who cares about track record – I’m buying for the future. If the stuff is there, the stuff is there!” If you find yourself nodding in agreement with that statement, then Jaden Hill is the pitcher for you. Hill’s big fastball and projectable offspeed stuff made him a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school near Texarkana, but he opted to head down to LSU and prove himself instead of going pro. As a freshman, he missed time due to elbow soreness and later collarbone surgery, the latter stemming from his days as a high school quarterback, and was limited to just ten (albeit impressive) innings. Fully healthy as a sophomore, Hill was untouchable in 11.2 shutout innings in which he struck out 17 and allowed just one (1!) hit, and that included non-conference outings against Indiana and Texas.

Let’s talk about stuff. Jaden Hill has pitched mostly in relief to this point, where he can easily touch 98 with his fastball, but in longer outings he can still sit comfortably in the mid 90’s. His go-to pitch is a rapidly improving slider that has added a ton of power since high school, showing devastating late bite as it dives across the plate. His changeup was actually ahead of the slider when he arrived in Baton Rouge, and it’s an above average pitch as well. Lastly, as he has gotten more confident in his slider, he’s been tinkering with a cutter that could split the difference in his power fastball/slider combination.

Hill’s delivery is clean, his frame is big and durable, and his arm speed is certainly there. He has also shown solid-average command in his short stints on the mound, bringing together the full package. Of course, the big question is proving it all, because 21.2 dominant innings as an underclassman is not enough to inspire confidence that his game will hold together under the rigor of a 200 inning MLB season. There is nothing in his profile to suggest he can’t, but until he does, it has to be a question. Scouts will for sure be bearing down on his starts this spring, and if the stuff is as loud in June as it was in February and the command holds together, then we likely have a top ten pick and potentially the most exciting arm to come out of LSU since Aaron Nola.

5. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’4, 220 lbs. Born 12/17/1999. Hometown: Hudson, FL
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.

Continuing the theme that has become apparent here, Gunnar Hoglund was yet another highly touted arm coming out of high school in the Tampa area, and the Pirates actually drafted him 36th overall. He didn’t sign, and now has the opportunity to beat that high selection in 2021. Hoglund was solid as a freshman in 2019, putting up a 5.29 ERA and an effective 53/14 strikeout to walk ratio against a tough schedule, then devoured his opponents in 2020 with a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 23.1 innings. At this point, he’s safely behind the big four prospects listed ahead of him here, but his floor is as high as any.

Hoglund’s selling point is his command, which is perhaps the best in the SEC given that he’s had more time to prove it than Jack Leiter. The fastball only sits around 90, but not for a lack of arm strength. He can touch 92 with very minimal effort, looking like he’s just playing catch, but when he does let loose, he has been clocked as high as 96. That easy, natural delivery enables Hoglund to hit his spots very consistently, with well above average command dating back to his high school days in Florida. Additionally, the 6’4″ right hander ditched a loopy 12-6 curveball for a tighter slider that has shown above average potential, giving him a second weapon with continued refinement. Lastly, there is a solid changeup as well, but Hoglund mainly pitches off his fastball.

On the surface, Hoglund looks like a one trick pony with plus command and average stuff. But having that 95-96 in his back pocket inspires a lot of confidence that his average velocity will tick up, and even a small improvement into perhaps the 90-93 range in 2021 will really help his draft stock. If he can refine either his slider or changeup into a true 55 grade pitch, that would help significantly as well. But even with his present stuff, I think the 6’4′, 220 pound righty really appeals to teams looking for a safe bet they know can be a #4 starter at the big league level.

6. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 205 lbs. Born 7/19/2000. Hometown: Alpharetta, GA
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.

Unlike many of the other names on this list, Jonathan Cannon wasn’t necessarily famous on the high school circuit, but it took just 11.1 innings as a freshman at Georgia to push himself into the first round conversation. The lanky, 6’6″ right hander allowed just six baserunners and did not allow a run, striking out twelve and capping it off with 4.2 strong innings against Georgia Tech. A year after sending Emerson Hancock (Mariners) and Cole Wilcox (Padres) off to multi-million dollar bonuses, Georgia will give the draft-eligible sophomore the chance to step into the rotation and earn his own hefty payday.

For now, Cannon is mostly about projection, but not completely. Long and lanky at 6’6″, he has plenty of room to further fill out his huge frame, but his velocity has already begun creeping up. After topping out around 91-92 in high school, he’s now comfortably sitting in the low to mid 90’s and topping out around 96, with his long arms and natural extension putting nice run on the ball as well. His slider has sharpened into an above average pitch with nice horizontal bite, and his changeup is very advanced for an underclassman and gives him a potential plus pitch. The Atlanta-area native is very coordinated despite his lanky stature and fills up the strike zone consistently with solid-average command, giving even more projectability.

Like Jaden Hill a few slots ahead of him, he now has to go out and prove he can hold his stuff over a full season in the rotation, but also like Hill, he hasn’t given us any reason to believe he can’t. If Cannon is still brushing 94-95 and throwing strikes in June after 70+ innings, we’ve got a first rounder on our hands.

7. OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 185 lbs. Born 11/30/1999. Hometown: Overland Park, KS
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.

Despite losing sluggers Heston Kjerstad (Orioles) and Casey Martin (Phillies) to the 2020 draft, Arkansas returns a ton of firepower to its lineup in 2021, and perhaps no player is more exciting than Christian Franklin. He hit the ground running with a .274/.362/.419 line and six home runs as a freshman in the SEC, then cranked it up to .381/.467/.619 with three home runs against a weaker non-conference slate in 2020. Heading into 2021, it’s hard to project exactly what Franklin will turn into, but there’s no questioning his talent and ability to perform and the Kansas City-area native could develop in any number of directions.

Listed at 5’11” and 185 pounds, Franklin is not the biggest guy in the world, but he packs a lot of punch into that frame. His quick, powerful right handed swing produces more power than you’d expect, and he has tapped that power consistently everywhere he has gone. It’s not necessarily the plus, light tower power of his former teammate Kjerstad, but evaluators really like the way the ball jumps off his bat. He’s an above average runner as well that has a chance to stick in center field with a little more refinement, giving him another avenue in which to impact the game and making his offensive profile look more impressive.

For now, the major question is plate discipline, as he has struck out at a 25.3% rate during his Razorbacks career. It’s not really fair to judge a player’s plate discipline on his freshman year in the SEC, but for now, that’s all we really have (he did strike out six times in three games in Arkansas’ only tough weekend series in 2020). If Franklin comes out in 2021 with a cleaner K/BB ratio and less swing and miss, he could rocket up boards as a potential 20-20 threat.

8. LHP Jonathan Childress, Texas A&M

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 205 lbs. Born 1/22/2000. Hometown: Forney, TX
2019-2020: 2-1, 1.98 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 25/5 K/BB in 27.1 IP.

Jonathan Childress is yet another player following the three major themes on this list: a pitcher (6/8 so far) who could have been drafted high out of high school (5/8) but who lacks much of a track record so far in college (4/8). Childress was off to a hot start as a freshman in 2019 but went down with Tommy John surgery pretty quickly, then looked great in his brief return in 2020. Together, it only amounts to 27.1 innings, but he’s struck out 25 to just five walks and allowed just 25 baserunners in total. In his seven career appearances, the toughest lineups he’s had to face were Houston (2019) and Rice (2020), but there is a lot to like regardless.

The big lefty who grew up on the eastern edge of Dallas-Fort Worth makes for a very uncomfortable at bat. Coming from a crossfire delivery, he hides the ball very well and puts nice angle on the ball. His fastball velocity has fluctuated over the years, climbing as high as 94 in high school, but he didn’t maintain that velocity as the 2018 draft neared and since returning from Tommy John, he’s sat around 90 for the most part. Childress’ two plane curveball is his best and most consistent pitch, a plus breaker that he can backdoor for strikes and change the shape of for a different look. He also tosses a solid changeup, and in his small sample in college, he has shown the ability to command all three pitches very well.

Fully healthy now, he has a chance to really elevate his stock this spring simply by pitching how he’s capable of, and any uptick in velocity should send him moving up boards in a hurry. Aside from a lack of track record, there is no reason to believe Childress can’t be a mid-rotation starter.

9. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/11/1998. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2018-2020: 16-5, 4.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 145/55 K/BB in 179.1 IP.

Man, have I written about Tommy Mace a lot lately. Like so many names before him on this list, he was a very well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in 2017, but he opted to bet on his extreme projectability and head to Florida instead. Mace’s time in Gainesville has been a mixed bag so far, as he’s proven his durability and command but has not yet taken the “leap forward” that scouts have been hoping for.

After putting up a 4.84 ERA and a decent 17.4% strikeout rate over his first two years, he jumped out to a 1.67 ERA and a 24.1% strikeout rate over four starts in 2020, so he priced himself out of a possible second round selection to bet on himself once more. The Top member of the 2020 College Class to return to school, he immediately becomes the top senior-aged member of the 2021 class.

Mace’s fastball sits in the low 90’s and can hit 96, though it can be very straight and easy to pick up at times despite its solid velocity, so scouts would still like to see it tick up a little farther and get into the 94-95 range more often. He never really developed a true breaking ball, instead relying on a cutterish short slider that can be above average and miss barrels effectively. Mace’s changeup is solid average, giving him three pitches to work with, and his solid average to at times above average command makes it play up. His track record of filling up the strike zone really helps his stock as scouts wait for his stuff to tick up, though he’s set to turn 22 in November and without that tick up in 2021, he will project more as a #4 starter than a higher ceiling mid-rotation guy.

10. LHP Christian MacLeod, Mississippi State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’4″, 225 lbs. Born 4/12/2000. Hometown: Huntsville, AL
2020: 4-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 35/6 K/BB in 21 IP.

Even after losing JT Ginn (Mets), Mississippi State has a whole slew of interesting arms to watch in 2021, none more advanced than lefty Christian MacLeod. He actually missed his entire true freshman season with pneumonia in 2019, but you wouldn’t know that by the way he came out of the gate in 2020. Over four starts that included some tough matchups including Oregon State, he was absolutely dominant with a 0.86 ERA, 35 strikeouts, and just 15 baserunners allowed in 21 innings. Heading into 2021, he’s looking to build off that and fully prove himself with a strong run through SEC competition.

Listed at 6’4″ and 225 pounds, MacLeod is a big guy that projects as a mid to back of the rotation starter. His fastball sits in the low 90’s but dipped into the upper 80’s later in his starts, which should be less of an issue as he gets further from pneumonia. The curveball projects as an above-average pitch, coming in with nice depth and very little hump out of his hand, making it hard to pick up. His changeup is a solid average pitch as well with some fade. Everything played up in the shortened 2020 season with his above-average command, and now he just has to go hold it over a full season and against SEC competition.

He also needs to answer the durability questions that stem from his inability to hold his fastball velocity, but that shouldn’t be an issue. At this point, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is the consensus top lefty in the college class, but MacLeod has a very strong argument for #2 when put up against the likes of Steven Hajjar (Michigan), Jonathan Childress (Texas A&M, see #8), Pete Hansen (Texas), and Evan Shawver (Cincinnati).

Other Interesting Options

Alabama:

The Tide doesn’t quite dominate the SEC in baseball like it does in football, but there are a couple of interesting names to look out for from the program that brought us David Robertson, Alex Avila, and Jimmy Nelson. The biggest name here is New Jersey native Tyler Ras, who tossed 11.1 shutout innings in 2020 before the shutdown. The 6’4″ righty has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90’s and touching 97 in short stints at times, and he gets nice fade on his changeup as well. His slider can soften up and currently grades out around a 45, but when you add in his solid-average strike-throwing, that breaking ball is all his profile is really missing. Sharpening it into even an average pitch could pay big dividends for his stock this spring. Connor Shamblin is another arm with projection, though the 6’1″ righty isn’t as clean of a product yet. He sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and can touch the mid 90’s, adding a better slider than Ras as well as a decent changeup, but the Memphis native has a jerky deliver and very inconsistent control, which bottomed out with 26 walks in 29 innings on the Cape in 2019. It’s a relief profile for now, but he was filling up the strike zone better as a sophomore in 2020 and the stuff is there for an impact profile. Lastly, the Tide would really like to see T.J. Reeves break out, as the patient right-handed hitter possesses above-average raw power and impressive strength packed into a 5’10” frame. He had a standout summer in the Northwoods League in 2019 (.324/.412/.566, 10 HR) and is an above-average runner as well, and if he can just cut down on his swing and miss a little bit, he could be one of the better bats in this conference. The Birmingham native draws plenty of walks and could stick in center field.

Auburn:

They didn’t place any names in the top ten, but there are a few who could break in with strong seasons. Infielder Ryan Bliss is easily the top prospect here, coming off a hot 2020 in which he hit .377/.412/.597 with just five strikeouts in 18 games. Despite being listed at just 5’9″ and 165 pounds, Bliss has been able to make consistent hard contact around the field while showing some gap power from a loose swing. He’s an above-average runner who shows great feel for the game on both sides of the ball, likely fitting in as a long term second baseman/utility infielder. Steven Williams is Bliss’ opposite, returning after being draft-eligible in 2020. Williams has blasted 23 home runs while slashing .270/.384/.457 in his Auburn career, though he’s never quite put it together for long stretches at a time. His swing can get long at times and while he’s very patient, he also strikes out a lot as well. With a corner outfield profile, he’ll have to show he can hit consistently, probably profiling as a platoon bat. Richard Fitts is an interesting name for sure who could be a sleeper for 2021. The 6’3″ righty has projection on his average fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, showing some of the better command in the SEC. That command buys his stuff time to come along, and with a durable frame and delivery built for starting, he could break out this spring. Auburn would also like to see high-spin lefty Garrett Wade break out after coming in as a highly regarded recruit. I liked him a lot in high school due to his hard running fastball and pair of above-average breaking balls, but his command has been shaky at Auburn and we’re still waiting on that velocity bump. Learning to get a little more extension at release could help.

Arkansas:

As discussed in Christian Franklin’s writeup, the Razorbacks lost two big hitters to the draft in Heston Kjerstad and Casey Martin, but they got a nice surprise when catcher Casey Opitz went undrafted. He’s one of the best defensive backstops in college baseball that can absolutely shut down the running game, and his hot .302/.361/.509 start to the 2020 season really elevated his profile. However, aside from that 16 game stretch, he hasn’t done much hitting at any point, his good plate discipline being his only proven trait at the plate. Opitz will be nearly 23 when the draft rolls around, which is less than ideal, and how much he hits in 2021 will determine whether he’s a legitimate backup catcher or organizational depth. On the mound, Patrick Wicklander has a lot of interesting starter traits but is yet to completely put it together. His fastball has climbed as high as 95, but at times, it can also dip into the upper 80’s. The California native has a full array of secondary pitches, with a pair of breaking balls standing out for great depth. His stuff can lack power at times and with the fringe-average command, the 6’1″ lefty doesn’t quite have what it takes to make it as a starter just yet, but incremental steps forward in any part of his game could really boost his draft stock. Lastly, we’ve got a sleeper in Elijah Trest, a 6’3″ Texan with a fastball that reaches 95 and a curve that is really tough to square up. Trest really struggled with his command as a freshman in 2019 but was better in that regard in 2020, though he still gives off reliever vibes at this point.

Florida:

We’ll never make it through all the names on this incredibly talented Florida team, so let’s just talk about the ones who just missed the list. I’m personally fond of eligible sophomore Nathan Hickey, who like Jack Leiter is the age of a college junior. He put up an exceptional .311/.439/.622 line with four home runs and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games against Florida’s non-conference slate in 2020, showcasing big raw power from an explosive left-handed swing. He’s very patient and had no trouble making the transition from high school pitching, but his swing can get a little long and there is some swing and miss to be wary of. A fringy catcher defensively, he becomes a legitimate Day One prospect if he shows he can stick back there. On the mound, Ben Specht has a mid 90’s fastball, a downer slider, and a changeup that would play in just about any rotation in college baseball, but the returns of Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich mean he’ll have to really earn that spot. The command is so-so, but the 6’1″ righty has arm strength that doesn’t come around every day and he attacks the strike zone with a 59/19 strikeout to walk ratio in his Gators career. Sharpening his offspeed pitches would help him miss barrels in pro ball even when he misses spots. Speaking of Jack Leftwich, the 6’4″ righty flashes mid-rotation stuff with a low 90’s fastball, an above-average slider, and a solid changeup from an athletic frame, but his secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent and it led to him just missing out on the 2020 draft. Returning for 2021, he’ll be nearly 23 by the time the draft rolls around. 6’5″ righty David Luethje is a deep sleeper here, reaching the low 90’s with his fastball from a very easy delivery, flashing above average with his slider as well. He’s a decent strike-thrower who could break out at any time, though on this immensely deep Gator pitching staff, he’s struggled just to find innings, let alone land a rotation spot. Other names to watch for the Gators include Kendrick Calilao and Christian Scott.

LSU:

If you find yourself at Alex Box Stadium but miss Jaden Hill’s start, don’t worry. Landon Marceaux is a very different pitcher than Hill, but he has a chance to be a big-league starter with a fantastic baseball name. His fastball sits in the low 90’s, while he adds a solid slider and changeup as well as a usable curveball. Nothing is plus or even firmly above average, but he fills up the strike zone and mixes his pitches effectively, which makes everything play up. A bit undersized as a skinny six-footer, he lacks much projection and he’ll have to prove himself at every level, but there’s no question Marceaux knows how to pitch. In the lineup, keep your eye on Cade Beloso, a slugging first baseman who homered ten times as a true freshman in 2019. He derives his power from the brute strength in his left-handed swing, with the ability to put up great exit velocities. In order to prove to scouts his power will play in pro ball, he’ll need to get a little more patient at the plate and also shake off a mediocre Cape summer from 2019 (.222/.327/.300). As a first baseman only, that’s very important.

Mississippi:

Just missing the top ten was lefty Doug Nikhazy, who holds a career 3.12 ERA despite an undersized 5’10” frame. The Orlando native confidently pounds the strike zone with advanced pitchability that makes his fringy fastball (around 90), deep two-plane curveball, and average slider and changeup play up. There are bound to be evaluators that really like Nikhazy’s track record and feel for pitching, and an uptick in velocity would be huge. We also have a pair of interesting bats in Kevin Graham and Jerrion Ealy. Graham has 13 home runs over 68 games for the Rebels, but he needs to tighten up his strike zone judgment given his lack of defensive projection. Ealy is a sophomore who may become eligible due to the later draft date, but he’s currently busy making big plays as the football team’s running back. Packing a ton of strength into his 5’9″ frame, his game is raw and he has a lot to prove if he wants to be drafted in 2021. At his ceiling, Ealy could show an exciting package of power and speed.

Mississippi State:

Christian MacLeod may lead the post-JT Ginn pitching staff, but there is a lot of talent here beyond him. Will Bednar is a personal favorite of mine, a draft-eligible sophomore coming off an exceptional start to his freshman season (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP). His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s but reaches 95-96 at his best, and he shows great feel for a slider, curve, and changeup, though none stand out as plus. With above-average command and a sturdy 6’2″ frame, any small uptick in secondary stuff could make Bednar a very coveted arm. A very different but very talented arm is Eric Cerantola, a 6’5″ Canadian righty who has struck out 43 but walked 22 over 31.2 innings so far. He has a low to mid 90’s fastball that has climbed as high as 98 in relief, adding a good curveball and a decent changeup. Cerantola utilizes a very easy, deliberate delivery to the plate, but he still struggles with command and repeating his arm slot. That leads to questions about his overall feel for pitching, which he can answer with a strong year in the rotation in 2021. We have sophomore-eligible two-way talent KC Hunt, though he didn’t bat in 2020 and only threw 1.2 innings. Another eligible sophomore is infielder Kamren James, who hit .308/.339/.423 in 2020 with a smooth swing that could add some power as he fills out his 6’2″ frame. He will want to get more direct with that swing but he’s a sleeper who could break out in 2021.

Tennessee:

The Vols didn’t place anybody in the top ten, but they have a ton of interesting players to watch. My favorite is shortstop Jake Rucker, who was off to a hot .339/.425/.581 start with three home runs in 2020. He’s growing into his 6’1″ frame and starting to tap some power with a very quick right-handed swing, helped by the fact that he possesses above-average bat to ball skills and doesn’t swing and miss much. If he can stick at shortstop, that’s full time starting a profile, though there is a chance he’s forced to third base. I like the direction his bat is trending. Opposite Rucker in the middle infield is Max Ferguson, who like Rucker was off to a hot start in 2020 with a .333/.462/.524 line with a pair of home runs and nine stolen bases. While Rucker is trending towards average power, Ferguson’s is more fringy and he gets his hits with a very disciplined approach and an above-average hit tool. He’s also a plus runner but figures to man second base long term. Moving to the mound, Jackson Leath was also off to a red hot start in 2020 with a 1.45 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio but went undrafted in the shortened event. He showcases a four-pitch mix headlined by a low to mid 90’s fastball that can touch 95-96. The 6’1″ righty’s slider and curveball flash above average and his changeup is an average pitch, though, with average command and some effort in his delivery, he might wind up in the bullpen unless he can get more consistent. We have Elijah Pleasants, a 6’5″ string bean who sits in the low 90’s with his fastball and adds a good changeup, but his slider lacks power and he hasn’t missed many bats at Tennessee. Camden Sewell is a projectable 6’4″ lefty with a strong track record in Knoxville (2.23 ERA, 48/23 K/BB), hovering around 90 with his fastball and adding a high spin curveball that misses plenty of bats. Any uptick in velocity for him would be huge.

Texas A&M:

After producing Asa Lacy in 2020 and putting Jonathan Childress onto the top ten here, the Aggies still have two more very interesting left-handed pitchers for the 2021 draft. Chris Weber is an aerospace engineering student who has a 3.02 ERA and a 98/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings in College Station, coming on the back of a fastball around 90, a big 12-6 curveball, and a solid changeup. He lacks a true strikeout pitch at this point and probably profiles as a back-end starter or long reliever, but the 6’4″ lefty has above-average command and pitchability that gives him a nice floor. Joseph Menefee has missed a lot of bats so far at Texas A&M, using a low 90’s fastball and an above-average slider to do the trick, but he’s been unable to break into that Aggie rotation so far and still needs to prove he can make his stuff play up in the rotation.

Vanderbilt:

As with Florida, there are too many names here to get through all of them, even after Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter ranked #1 and #2 on this list, respectively. Isaiah Thomas (not to be confused with the NBA all-star) just missed the list and would have probably ranked ~12th had I gone that far, holding a career .300/.349/.590 line with seven home runs so far in his Vanderbilt career. He has an explosive right-handed swing that makes the ball scream off his bat, a product of the wiry strength in his 6’2″ frame. The South Florida native is extremely aggressive at the plate and has walked just four times so far in 37 games, which will have to change if he wants to be drafted on Day One, but even with the hyper-aggressive approach, he makes contact at a decent clip. With above-average speed and the potential to stick in center field, that plate discipline is really all that’s standing in his way. Catcher CJ Rodriguez is a very different player, a draft-eligible sophomore from Southern California who hit .289/.370/.356 as a freshman but struck out just three times in twelve games. He has a very simple swing that can handle high-end pitching, though it lacks explosiveness and he doesn’t project to be more than a decent all-around hitter. Rodriguez’s value comes from his glove, showing not only the physical tools but the mental aptitude as well. His youth makes him a more attractive draft candidate than a guy like Arkansas’ Casey Opitz, and an uptick in offensive output will be big. Hugh Fisher was sixth to eighth round talent in 2020, but went undrafted after sitting out the season with Tommy John surgery. He struck out 46 batters in 34.2 innings in 2019 but also walked 21, showcasing big stuff but a questionable command. The 6’5″ lefty has hit 97-98 in relief with late-life and can drop in a plus slider, and once he comes back healthy in 2021, he could move quickly as a late-inning weapon. We also have talented bats like Tate Kolwyck, Dominic Keegan, and Matt Hogan who have struggled to find playing time in that deep, deep lineup.