This is a very pitching-heavy system, led by the four consecutive right handed pitchers they took in the first round from 2015-2018 in Beau Burrows, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Casey Mize, respectively. However, that 2018 draft has interestingly produced a lot of pitching talent in the later rounds, including ninth rounder Tarik Skubal, 18th rounder Ethan DeCaster, and 26th rounder Garrett Hill. Noting the utter lack of impact hitters in this system aside from maybe Isaac Paredes, the Tigers turned their focus there in the 2019 draft and stocked up with six consecutive hitters, most notably first rounder Riley Greene, and they also added Roberto Campos through the international market. It's a system that's really deep in pitching, but they'll really want to get some of those recent offensive draftees going as well as incumbents like Daz Cameron, Kody Clemens, Parker Meadows, and Wenceel Perez.
Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie SeaWolves, High A Lakeland, Class A West Michigan, short season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers
Catcher
- Jake Rogers (2020 Age: 25): Rogers was the Astros' third round pick out of Tulane in 2016, then he came to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade in 2017. He bounced back from a tough 2018 to slash .250/.361/.484 with 14 home runs and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games at AA Erie and AAA Toledo, then hit .125/.222/.259 with four home runs and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio in a 35 game big league call-up. He only has to hit a little bit, because he might be the best defensive catching prospect in the game. He'll likely contend for Gold Gloves immediately after taking on a full time role, which in turn will help the Tigers' big group of young arms coming up. He does have some power, which has enabled him to hit 18, 17, and 18 home runs over the past three seasons, though his hit tool is pretty fringy and the swing and miss in his game was exposed during his stint in the majors in 2019. Even if his bat just stopped developing today, he'd be a very useful backup catcher with his defense, but if he can figure out how to tap that power in the majors, he could easily overtake Austin Romine as the team's starter back there.
- Yoandy Rea (2020 Age: 19-20): I researched and researched to try to find some information on Yoandy Rea, but unfortunately, there is nothing online, but I really want to include him here so I'll have to "scout the stat line." Signed out of Venezuela in 2017, he didn't get enough money to show up on any trackers, but he hit well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.320/.405/.455) then absolutely raked in 2019. He spent most of the year in the complex level Gulf Coast League, slashing .400/.453/.653 with five home runs and a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games, then earned a late promotion to short season Connecticut and hit .238/.273/.238 with a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio in six games. He's a very advanced hitter at the plate for his age who is quickly developing some wiry power, and catchers who can hit for impact are hard to find. I know nothing about his defense, but even if it's raw, he's young enough to hone his craft and hopefully stick back there.
- Keep an eye on: Kade Scivicque, Cooper Johnson, Sam McMillan, Eliezer Alfonzo
Corner Infield
- Isaac Paredes (2020 Age: 21): The Cubs originally signed Paredes out of Mexico in 2015, then they shipped him across town in the Alex Avila/Justin Wilson trade. He's an extremely competent hitter who slashed .282/.368/.416 with 13 home runs and a 61/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Erie in 2019, standing out for his exceptional ability to control the zone while still hitting for impact. He has a very simple swing that enables him to find the barrel very consistently, and he has some over the fence power in his compact 5'11" frame, though he'll never be a true power hitter. I'm very confident that he'll be able to hit at the major league level, perhaps with 10-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages if things break right, and that should be enough to land him a starting job. It's not clear where yet, as he's played mostly shortstop to this point in his career but he's fringy there, and he could also fit at second or third base. He's played more third base than second to this point, and his good arm fits well there, so I'll include him as a corner infielder for now.
- Andre Lipcius (2020 Age: 21-22): Lipcius was a third round pick out of Tennessee in 2019, and he held his own in a relatively aggressive assignment to Class A West Michigan to begin his career by slashing .273/.344/.360 with two home runs and a 57/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. The Tigers did pick him for his bat, as he's an advanced hitter who has hit well both in the Cape Cod League and in the SEC, making easy contact with a swing that produces good power. How much power he'll actually be able to generate is still a question, but it could be above average if he takes to pro ball like has to all his other assignments throughout his amateur career. Defensively, he's a bit fringy and may need to move to first base, which would put added pressure on the bat.
- Nick Quintana (2020 Age: 22): Quintana, the Tigers' second pick out of Arizona in 2019, a round before Lipcius, slashed just .194/.273/.280 with a pair of home runs and an 82/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games at short season Connecticut and Class A West Michigan in his pro debut. A very accomplished hitter back in Tucson, he came into pro ball needing to prove his hit tool and unfortunately his 31.5% strikeout rate didn't ease any of those questions. Though he's only 5'10", he has a lot of power from the right side and could be an impact hitter if everything breaks right. He'll probably need to shorten up his swing a bit in order to get to it in pro ball though, given the aforementioned contact problems. Unlike Lipcius, his glove will work in his favor, as he's very strong at third base and might even be able to handle shortstop if the Tigers wanted to get ambitious.
- Keep an eye on: Frank Schwindel, Nick Ames, Ryan Kreidler
Middle Infield
- Willi Castro (2020 Age: 23): Castro came over from the Indians for Leonys Martin in 2018, and he's impressed the Tigers so far by slashing .301/.366/.467 with eleven home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 110/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AAA Toledo in 2019. He then hit .230/.284/.340 with a home run and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 major league games, like Jake Rogers staying just under rookie limits. He's a consistent hitter who finds the barrel pretty easily, enabling him to post high batting averages and relatively low strikeout numbers wherever he goes, and he has enough gap power and a little bit of over the fence power to be much more than just a slap hitter. The switch hitter also shows some speed and a good arm in the infield, and while he's a bit fringy at shortstop, he might still be able to stick there. With Niko Goodrum really the only person standing in his way, he could conceivably start regularly in 2020 and beyond, though he probably fits more as a very strong utility infielder who can play any position and get hits when needed off the bench in a more long term role.
- Kody Clemens (2020 Age: 23-24): Clemens (yes, that is his father) had a huge breakout year as a redshirt junior at Texas in 2018, though I thought the third round was a bit of a reach for him and so far, he hasn't quite figured out pro pitching as the Tigers have pushed him aggressively. In 2019, he slashed .231/.310/.397 with twelve home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, flashing big time ability at times but not consistently yet. He has good power in his left handed swing, and he got to it extremely consistently during that junior year in Austin, though it's played closer to average in pro ball as pitchers have found ways to avoid his barrel. He's controlling the zone fairly well and he does have a good shot at translating that back into tapping his power, though as a fringy defender at second base, he'll have to hit. He'll get another crack at AA in 2020 with the chance to hit his way up to the big league club.
- Sergio Alcantara (2020 Age: 23-24): Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, Alcantara came over in the ill-fated J.D. Martinez trade and despite not really panning out yet, he might still end up as the best prospect in the trade over Dawel Lugo and Jose King. In 2019, Alcantara hit .247/.346/.296 with two home runs and a 71/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Erie, which was an accurate reflection of his offensive ability. Purely a singles hitter, he has virtually no power to speak of and doesn't even drive the ball into the gaps enough to hit a lot of doubles and triples. However, he does control the zone well and he puts the ball in play consistently, so he's not useless as a hitter. His true value lies in his glove, which is elite and could play in the majors right now. That alone could get him onto the big league club, where he could be a late game defensive replacement/utility infielder, and he could stick in the majors if he figured out how to channel just enough power to start hitting those doubles and triples into the gap.
- Wenceel Perez (2020 Age: 20): Wenceel Perez, who managed to fit five e's into a twelve letter name, impressed in his first two pro seasons before hitting a bit of a speed bump in 2019. After hitting .314/.387/.358 in 2017 and .312/.368/.429 in 2018, he slumped to .233/.299/.314 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an 87/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A West Michigan in 2019. That's not a huge deal because he was only 19 years old, and the switch hitter still did a good job of controlling the strike zone while appearing in 124 of 139 games. It's that natural hitting ability that the Tigers are working to build off of, as he likely won't ever be a power hitter but he makes enough contact that he should be able to tap some gap power and maximize whatever power he does have. He's also a great runner and a very good defender at shortstop, so he's really a four tool player. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, Perez just needs to use his natural understanding of hitting to start to drive the ball more rather than simply put it in play, and he could be a starting shortstop down the road.
- Adinso Reyes (2020 Age: 18): Reyes signed for $1.45 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then lit up the Dominican Summer League in 2019 by slashing .331/.379/.508 with seven home runs and a 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at just 17 years old. He finished the season on a 17 game hitting streak and had multiple hits in 14 of his final 25 games, showing great feel for the barrel and the ability to consistently hit the ball hard right out of the gate in his young career. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that limits his walks, and while it didn't hurt him one bit against DSL pitching, it will be something to monitor as he moves stateside and starts to face higher level pitching. Reyes, like most young players, will also need to make tweaks to his hitting mechanics, but in general I don't think 2019 could have gone much better for him. A shortstop for now, he could end up anywhere in the infield when all is said and done. At this point, he's so young that it's hard to project exactly what kind of player he'll be, so we're better off just watching and waiting.
- Keep an eye on: John Valente, Jose King, Carlos Irigoyen
Outfield
- Daz Cameron (2020 Age: 23): Cameron was a highly regarded prospect coming out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, where he could have gone in the top half of the first round, but signability pushed him down to the competitive balance round and the Astros gave him and over slot $4 million deal. He went to the Tigers in the Justin Verlander trade and in 2019, he slashed .214/.330/.377 with 13 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 152/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA Toledo. He's been slow to develop, but that development has brought slow but steady progress, and he retains the loud tools that made him such an exciting prospect as an amateur. He's got wiry strength that will enable him to put a lot of balls into the gaps and his share into the seats, while his plus speed has helped him steal 109 bases in his minor league career and makes him a good center fielder. He also has a patient approach at the plate that helps him draw his share of walks, but at this point, he's struggled just enough with contact that it's limited his ability to make everything play up. Set to play all of 2020 at just 23 years old, he certainly has the chance to continue learning the nuances of advanced pitching, and I don't really see a reason to doubt that he will. If he can, he could crack the Tigers outfield in 2020 and end up as a starting center fielder that can hit 15-20 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and good defense.
- Derek Hill (2020 Age: 24): It's been a really long road up for Hill, who was a first round pick out of a Sacramento-area high school in 2014, and in 2019 he slashed .243/.311/.394 with 14 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 147/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Erie. The power was new, as he had never hit more than four in a season before, and more importantly, 2019 marked his second consecutive full season after never playing in more than 93 games from 2015-2017 due to injuries. I don't think that power will play all the way up and make him a 15 homer threat in the majors, but it's nice to see him hitting for more impact after being more of a slap hitter early in his career. Hill still needs to lock down the strike zone a bit more, but he does get some slack for all the missed time with injuries. Defensively, he's a whiz in center field that can absolutely stick there and be an asset, buying his bat even more time, and that easy plus speed also helps him on the bases, where he's stolen 156 in his career. It's more of a fourth outfielder profile than anything else, but he could finally crack the big league roster in 2020.
- Riley Greene (2020 Age: 19): Greene went fifth overall out of an Orlando-area high school in 2019, and at just 18 years old he became the top hitting prospect in the system. In his pro debut, Greene slashed .271/.347/.403 with five home runs and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, short season Connecticut, and in an aggressive assignment to Class A West Michigan. A big guy at 6'3", he's hit over power at this point because he has such an exceptional feel for hitting, both in terms of navigating counts and finding the barrel consistently, and he should move much more quickly than most high school hitters. Once he adjusts to pro pitching, I expect him to start tapping some power too, as his swing is geared towards producing power but doesn't come with much swing and miss. Greene has the chance to hit 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, though of course he still does have a long way to go and a $6.18 million signing bonus doesn't mean a guarantee.
- Bryant Packard (2020 Age: 22): Packard was a streaky hitter at East Carolina who slashed an impressive .406/.462/.671 as a sophomore, but a streakier junior season dropped him to the fifth round in 2019. In his pro debut, Packard slashed .296/.392/.422 with three home runs and a 38/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Connecticut, Class A West Michigan, and even briefly at High A Lakeland. His strong numbers definitely leave the Tigers excited about his future, as he's shown both the ability to hit for contact and power and at 6'3", the Tigers think he can tap more. He has a track record of hitting advanced pitching and that advanced approach translated into pro ball, and if he can shorten his swing and cut down on his strikeouts just a little bit, he could be a true impact hitter down the line. As a mediocre defender, it will be the bat alone that will have to carry him.
- Parker Meadows (2020 Age: 20): The younger brother of Rays standout Austin Meadows, Parker went in the second round out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2018 but stumbled a bit in his first full season, slashing .221/.296/.312 with seven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 113/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Class A West Michigan in 2019. Your classic projectable power hitter at a lanky 6'5", Meadows showed a lot of power as a high schooler, albeit from a long swing that was destined to cause swing and miss problems in pro ball. To his and the Tigers' credit, he shorted that swing up and was much more direct to the ball in 2019, and while it kept his swing and miss reasonably low, it also sapped his power considerably and he finished with just 24 extra base hits in 126 games. Because he was able to keep his strikeout rate somewhat down at 22.4%, I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be able to make further adjustments and figure himself out as a hitter, finding a middle ground between getting his arms extended to drive the ball and staying direct to said ball. The 2019 season was a minor disappointment, but it's far too early to consider his stock to be considerably down. Hopefully he'll get things figured out in 2020.
- Roberto Campos (2020 Age: 16-17): Born in June of 2003, Campos signed for $2.85 million out of Cuba in 2019 and will be one of the youngest players in all of professional baseball when he begins his career in 2020. There's only video of one swing online, from when he was 13 years old back in 2017, and there isn't a ton of publicly available information on him. What we do know is that he has a ton of power from the right side and the Tigers have to be very confident in his ability to get to it given the size of his bonus, and his most likely fit is in right or left field going forward. He'll start playing in the Dominican Summer League right around his 17th birthday this spring, and he comes with as a high of a ceiling as you can get at that age.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Robson, Troy Stokes Jr., Danny Woodrow, Jose Azocar, Brock Deatherage, Ulrich Bojarski
Starting Pitching
- Casey Mize (2020 Age: 22-23): Man, there is a lot to consider here. Mize rode an absolutely brilliant three years at Auburn to being the first overall pick in 2018, and he was in High A by the end of July. 2019 got off to as good of a start as humanly possible, and as of June 13th he was 8-0 with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, including a complete game no-hitter in his AA debut. He was untouchable. However, he came out of that June 13th start with shoulder soreness and missed nearly a month, then came back and was noticeably more human; from there he was 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. I don't know, maybe he was being cautious with his shoulder, maybe it was just a natural funk he ran into as a barely-22 year old in AA, but if anything it wasn't a good sign. Shoulder injuries can be so unpredictable, and there were minor questions about Mize's durability in college, so I'm just nervous. That said, Mize is otherwise as complete a pitcher as there can be at 22. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adds a really good slider, and can finish hitters off with a devastating splitter that is one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues. Additionally, he can command everything very well, and he knows just how to deploy his arsenal to get hitters out very consistently. That gives him true top of the rotation potential and, if this shoulder thing turns out to just be a minor speed bump, a really good chance to get there and the floor of a mid-rotation starter as soon as 2020.
- Matt Manning (2020 Age: 22): Two years after selecting Derek Hill in the first round out of high school in the Sacramento-area, the Tigers went back to the capital area and picked Matt Manning in the first round of the 2016 draft out of high school just ten minutes from where Hill grew up. Manning, though, has been much more successful, and 2019 was his best season yet as he posted a 2.56 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 148/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at AA Erie. He's a 6'6" right hander that has just continuously gotten better, to put it simply, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great curveball, a progressing changeup, and quickly improving command. He's much more refined than he was coming out of high school, filling up the strike zone and sequencing his plus stuff, and it all plays up from a smooth delivery that can make the ball jump on hitters quicker than it looks. If he can make those last couple of little refinements in 2020, he should be up in the majors relatively quickly, and he has #2 starter potential down the line.
- Alex Faedo (2020 Age: 24): Faedo went in the first round out of Florida in 2017, then after a strong first full season in 2018, he turned in another strong season in 2019 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 134/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at AA Erie. The 6'5" righty doesn't stand out in any particular area, but his well-rounded game helps makes him a strong rotation candidate. His velocity is a bit down since college, now sitting in the low 90's, and his former plus slider has been a little more inconsistent, though it still does flash plus. At the same time, he's improved his command and become a more complete pitcher, and he controlled the zone well against AA hitting in 2019. Faedo's likely role is as a #4 or a #5 starter, but he does have the chance to become a #3 if he can get a little more consistent with his stuff.
- Tarik Skubal (2020 Age: 23): Skubal was a ninth round pick out of Seattle University in 2018, but he's been absolutely dominant in his pro career so far. He had a 0.40 ERA and a 33/4 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, then in 2019 he put up a 2.42 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 179/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at High A Lakeland and AA Erie. His stuff has taken a step forward in pro ball, and he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two distinct breaking balls in a diving curveball and a harder slider. He's also thrown more strikes than expected, which has enabled his big stuff to play up in pro ball, and if he stays healthy he has real #2 or #3 starter potential. Next up for him will be continuing the development of his changeup, but otherwise he just needs to maintain the massive strides he made in 2019.
- Beau Burrows (2020 Age: 23): Burrow, a late first round pick in 2015 out of high school outside Fort Worth, looked really good early in his pro career but has been a bit less consistent in the upper minors. In 2019, he posted a 4.84 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo, missing time at various points due to nagging injuries. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, which enables him to attack hitters in a variety of ways. His command has been inconsistent throughout his career, which is finally catching up to him in the upper minors, but when he's throwing strikes he's still very difficult to hit. The full arsenal gives him a good chance to be a #4 starter, though his stuff would fit really well in the bullpen if he were to move there, and that would most likely put him in the majors in 2020.
- Joey Wentz (2020 Age: 22): Wentz was a Braves' competitive balance pick out of high school in the Kansas City area in 2016, then came over to Detroit in the Shane Greene trade this year. Between the two organizations this year, he had a 4.20 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 137/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.2 innings in AA, though he did have a strong, five start run in his brief stint on the Tigers side (2.10 ERA, 37/4 K/BB). His stuff has been inconsistent throughout his career, though at his best he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add both a good curveball and a good changeup. His command isn't pinpoint, but he's rarely wild and can hit his spots reasonably well, enough to make his stuff play up. The 6'5" lefty probably could have used a change of scenery, as he was getting buried in the Braves' deep, deep crop of arms, and this new opportunity with the Tigers could help him jump towards his ceiling of a mid rotation starter.
- Franklin Perez (2020 Age: 22): Perez was perhaps the centerpiece return in the 2017 trade that sent Justin Verlander to Houston, but lat and shoulder problems have limited him to just 27 innings over two years in his new organization. When healthy, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, any of which he can use to miss bats, and he throws plenty of strikes so that they can play up. He was really an advanced pitcher for his age before the injuries, so he'll still be just 22 years old for all of 2020. He's really a great case study for why shoulder injuries just suck so badly, because he's exceptionally talented and has top of the rotation potential, even still. Hopefully the Tigers can get him healthy and going in 2020.
- Elvin Rodriguez (2020 Age: 22): Originally an Angels prospect, Rodriguez came over to Detroit as the player to be named later in the Justin Upton trade in 2017, and he's steadily developed throughout his time in the minors. In 2019, he posted a 3.77 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 112/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at High A Lakeland, and he looks to be leading the next wave of Tigers pitching prospects behind the guys in the upper minors. He's young but he has a clear understanding of how to pitch, and he can beat you with any pitch in his arsenal by locating and sequencing them, helping them play up. He won't be an ace, but he could be a strong #4 starter or even a #3 if he can take a step forward with his low 90's velocity.
- Paul Richan (2020 Age: 23): The Cubs picked up Richan in the second competitive balance round in 2018, then traded him to the Tigers in the Nick Castellanos deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings in High A. He's a fairly generic starter, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding an average set of secondaries, but he commands everything really well and rarely hurts himself with walks. That makes all of his stuff play up, and he struck out 29 batters to just two walks after the trade. It's a basic #4/#5 starter package, but if he can sharpen his stuff just a little bit, he could be more given that command.
- Garrett Hill (2020 Age: 24): Tarik Skubal isn't the only later-round 2018 draft arm to exceed expectations in the Tigers system this year. Garrett Hill went in the 26th round out of San Diego State in 2018, then in 2019 he posted a 2.25 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 129/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. I couldn't find any velocity readings for him, but it looks like he gets some arm side run on his fastball and adds a breaking ball with some late movement and a good running changeup, all of which plays up due to his solid command. Hill's a classic back of the rotation candidate, which saying a lot for a kid who was a 26th rounder a year ago and was an unremarkable California junior college arm two years ago.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Shore, Tom de Blok, Wilkel Hernandez, Austin Bergner
Relief Pitching
- Rony Garcia (2020 Age: 22): Garcia was the first overall pick in the rule five draft this year, meaning that he'll have to stick on Detroit's 26 man roster all season long or be sent back to the Yankees. That means he'll be skipping AAA and will spend the season in either the bullpen or the rotation, though the former is probably more likely. In 2019, he posted a 4.01 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings in High A and AA, as his game has continued to gradually develop in all areas. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries including a curveball with nice two plane break, an inconsistent changeup that flashes above average, and a new cutter. He also throws strikes for the most part, and it all comes together as a rough #5 starter profile at present. Hopefully he can refine his changeup and command a bit more so that he can stick in that rotation, though since he'll be jumping straight to the majors, the Tigers might hold him back in the bullpen for a little bit while he works on that.
- Bryan Garcia (2020 Age: 25): A sixth round pick out of Miami in 2016, Garcia lost his 2018 season to Tommy John surgery but bounced back nicely in 2019 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo. He then posted a 12.15 ERA and a 7/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.2 major league innings in September, but he'll be back in 2020. Garcia has a mid 90's fastball and a good slider, which he can command well enough to fit a middle relief profile right away in 2020. Taking a step forward with either the slider, his command, or his new changeup he's been working on will likely be enough to get him into a more high leverage role.
- Ethan DeCaster (2020 Age: 25): This is an interesting arm. DeCaster began his college career at Creighton, but transferred to Duke for grad school after earning his diploma. He still had a year of eligibility and went in the 18th round to the Tigers, and promptly put up a 0.84 ERA and a 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut. I've already mentioned fellow 2018 draftees Tarik Skubal and Garrett Hill outplaying their later draft positions, so what's one more? In 2019, DeCaster had a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 71/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo, and knocking on the door to the majors barely a year out of grad school. He's a 6'3" righty with a funky sidearm delivery, so he's purely a reliever, and even in relief his fastball barely scrapes 90. However, it has a lot of run on it that makes it difficult to square up, and his frisbee slider just dives across the plate. He adds a changeup with nice fade as well, giving him three unconventional pitches to deploy against hitters late in games. I'm excited to see how he fares in the majors in 2020, since I'm pretty confident he'll earn the call at some point.
- Anthony Castro (2020 Age: 25): Castro signed out of Venezuela way back in 2011, yet he's still only 24 years old and very much a prospect. In 2019, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 116/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings as a starter at AA Erie, but his future is most likely in the bullpen. Castro sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's easy to see a bump above that in relief, and he adds a good slider that could be sharper in short spurts. His lack of a good changeup and mediocre command have held him back as a starter, but would probably be less of an issue in the bullpen. Either way, he has a live arm that makes him really interesting to watch, and his stuff has always been very difficult to square up when he's around the zone.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Funkhouser, Wladimir Pinto, Drew Carlton, Alex Lange, Zack Hess
Showing posts with label Isaac Paredes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Isaac Paredes. Show all posts
Saturday, January 11, 2020
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Reviewing the Detroit Tigers Farm System
The Tigers' farm system is much improved over the past few years, going from a nice collection of arms and a couple bats to a balanced system with enough of both. While the system is still fairly pitching-heavy considering the Tigers well-known preference of drafting pitchers, they have added quite a few bats via trade recently such as Daz Cameron, Jake Rogers, Willi Castro, Dawel Lugo, and breakout star Isaac Paredes. Back on the pitching side, this draft strategy has worked well for them because their first round picks in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, all right handed pitchers, are arguably the four best prospects in the system. In 2014, they drafted outfielder Derek Hill, who is not quite a bust yet but who is looking like he may never hit enough to reach the majors.
Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie Seawolves, High A Lakeland Flying Tigers, Class A West Michigan Whitecaps, Short Season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers
High Drafted Arms: RHP Beau Burrows, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Alex Faedo, RHP Casey Mize, and RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Each of the Tigers' last four first round picks have been right handed pitchers, and those four are now the core of the farm system. In 2015, Detroit grabbed now-22 year old Beau Burrows out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd overall pick, and he just posted a 4.10 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 127/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings at AA Erie. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a full assortment with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, which he commands well enough to give him an overall projection as a workhorse #3 or #4 starter. Sharpening his command a little bit further will ensure that he ends up a useful mid-rotation arm, though at present it looks unlikely that he ends up as anything less than a #5 starter. 20 year old Matt Manning was the Tigers' first round pick (ninth overall) out of a Sacramento high school in 2016 and he has been just as good as advertised. In 2018, he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 154/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings at Class A West Michigan, High A Lakeland, and Erie, handling both promotions easily. He throws in the low to mid 90's with a very loose arm and adds a very good curveball, one which has enabled him to put up strikeouts in bunches. His command is really the only thing that needs to come along, but his mechanics are improving as he grows into his skinny 6'6" frame and with his athleticism, I think he ends up with above average command in the end. He has ace upside, but like any other 20 year old prospect, he'll have to stay healthy and continue to make progress with his delivery in order to reach it. In 2017, the Tigers' first round pick (18th overall) was now-23 year old Alex Faedo from the University of Florida, and Faedo put up a solid first pro season by posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 110/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at Lakeland and Erie. The big 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds an excellent slider and a good changeup, but his command is just inconsistent enough to keep him from being considered an elite prospect. With no improvement in his start to start command, he looks like a #4 starter, but he has chance to be a very good mid-rotation guy, possibly even a #2, if he can bring it all together. He'll require more minor league seasoning in 2019 but look for Faedo to be knocking on the door when it comes to September call-ups. Most recently, the Tigers took 21 year old Casey Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn, and Mize posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings between complex ball and Lakeland in his debut. The 6'3" righty is already close to major league ready, bringing a mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a devastating splitter to the table and commanding it all with ease. His combination of stuff and command could work in the major leagues today, the only reason he isn't going straight to the majors is that he just needs to see professional hitters and learn how to handle them first, which shouldn't be a problem. The only knock on Mize comes from a durability standpoint, as he was shut down at the end of his freshman and sophomore seasons at Auburn then stumbled a little bit down the stretch in his junior year, but the Tigers might look to smooth out his delivery just a little bit. His delivery isn't high-effort, per se, but he doesn't have the loosest arm action in the world and a few minor tweaks could make Mize an ace who will be in the majors very soon. Lastly, I'll add that 24 year old Kyle Funkhouser, the Tigers' fourth round pick out of Louisville in 2016, has been a big draft find as well. Funkhouser was considered a potential top ten pick at points during the 2015 season, but he slid with an up and down junior season, didn't sign when the Dodgers drafted him 35th overall, then slid to the fourth round in 2016. However, he has turned that slide around in the minors, and in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings between Erie and AAA Toledo before a foot injury ended his season in July. He throws in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal with a slider, curveball, and changeup, commanding it all well enough to make it work. Nothing really stands out about his game, but he has already proven himself against AA competition and he'll get another shot at AAA in 2019, after which he could compete as a back-end starter or a long reliever.
Outfielders: OF Christin Stewart, OF Daz Cameron, OF Jacob Robson, OF Dustin Peterson, OF Parker Meadows, and OF Brock Deatherage
Most of the Tigers' best outfield prospects are close to the majors at this point, and with Nicholas Castellanos looking like the only sure-starter out there, it's wide open for some of these guys to seize starting roles in the very near future. 25 year old Christin Stewart, who slashed .267/.375/.417 with a pair of home runs in his 17 game MLB debut in 2018, is arguably the top prospect in this group. He's a power hitter who has clubbed 83 home runs over the past three minor league seasons, and in 2018 he slashed .263/.363/.488 with 25 home runs and a 108/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games, almost all at AAA Toledo. He packs a lot of pop for a six footer, and in 2018, he addressed his biggest offensive weakness and dropped his strikeout rate from 2017's 24.9% to a better 20.7% (excluding ten punchless plate appearances in complex ball) despite moving up from AA to AAA. He kept it up in a small MLB sample, his 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances coming out to 18.1%. All of his value will be tied to his bat because he's a mediocre defender in left field, but with his power, high walk rate, and lower strikeout rate, he could open 2019 as the Tigers' starting left fielder and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't win it. Right behind him on the depth chart is 22 year old Daz Cameron, who came over from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade and slashed .264/.343/.406 with eight home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 137/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and Toledo. Cameron's speed makes him a valuable defender in center field as well as an asset on the bases, but his bat is beginning to come along too. Unlike Stewart, he will always be glove-first, but Cameron has enough feel for the barrel and a patient enough approach to get on base at a good clip, and his wiry strength gives him enough power to where he's not just a contact hitter. The overall offensive package is pretty average and he probably never ends up being an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup, but the good center field defense buys the bat enough slack that he has a good chance of becoming a starting outfielder, if not in 2019 then in 2020. 24 year olds Jacob Robson and Dustin Peterson are more likely to end up fourth outfielders, with Robson having slashed .295/.376/.440 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 140/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Erie and Toledo and Peterson having slashed .268/.324/.406 with 11 home runs and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at the Braves' AAA affiliate in Gwinnett. Robson is a more complete player and therefore the better prospect, showing a little bit of everything but no standout tool aside from his speed. Not known for his power, his 44 extra base hits and .440 slugging percentage were a surprise in 2018, but the 5'10", 175 pounder strikes out enough to where he probably won't get to his power as much in the majors. Peterson, meanwhile, has more natural power and is more likely to get to it in the majors, but he has been inconsistent and even at his best, his power plays closer to average, and unlike Robson he doesn't have that speed to fall back on. Peterson and Robson could compliment each other nicely on the Detroit bench if there is room for both. Down lower in the minors, 19 year old Parker Meadows, the younger brother of now-Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, was the Tigers' second round pick (44th overall) in 2018 and slashed a nice .290/.377/.473 with four home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in complex ball and with short season Connecticut. Standing at 6'5", the skinny outfielder's glove is presently ahead of his bat, as he moves well for such a tall kid and has a good arm. He's more about projection at the plate, as his long (too long if you ask some) swing has plenty of bat speed and loft, combining with his height to give him the chance for really big power down the road. That long swing, as well as some difficulty with pitch recognition, causes him to swing and miss a fair amount, but pro coaching and refinement could help him click at the plate and shoot him to the top of the Tigers' prospect rankings in the future. For now, consider him a long-term project who could turn into a speedier Christin Stewart if it works out. Lastly, 23 year old Brock Deatherage was a tenth round pick out of NC State in 2018, but he quickly made himself known by slashing .326/.385/.504 with seven home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games between complex ball, Class A West Michigan, and Lakeland. A streaky hitter in college, I saw him play during his senior season and his swing immediately stuck out to me. Like Meadows, he has a very long swing, but the strength and whip in his wrists helps him generate more power than you'd expect for a skinny, speedy, 6'1" kid. The length in his swing, as well as so-so plate discipline, also caused his streakiness in college, but he proved himself quickly in A ball and pro coaching could make him a steal in the tenth round. I'm a Deatherage fan and he might no longer be a sleeper prospect after the 2019 season.
Infielders and Catchers: 3B Isaac Paredes, SS Willi Castro, IF Dawel Lugo, 2B Kody Clemens, and C Jake Rogers
The Tigers aren't very deep when it comes to infield prospects, but the short list includes their best position-playing prospect in Isaac Paredes and unlike many teams, they actually have a viable catching prospect in Jake Rogers. 19 year old Isaac Paredes has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserves when it comes to top prospect discussions around the league, and he alone will likely make the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade with the Cubs look like a robbery. The teenager slashed .278/.359/.456 with 15 home runs and a 76/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, looking even better after his promotion and showing a wide range of skills against much older competition. He is growing into some moderate power, makes ready contact, and has a very advanced approach at the plate, giving him a very high floor and the potential to become a top of the lineup bat. Defensively, he has more question marks with a fringe-average glove and a good arm, so he likely moves off of shortstop and ends up at second or third base in the long run. He has the bat to profile at either, and because he turns just 20 years old during spring training, he has plenty of time to make further adjustments and become an impact hitter. 21 year old Willi Castro is over from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin trade and slashed .264/.315/.392 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA Akron/Erie and AAA Toledo. He has been improving on both sides of the ball as he has moved through the minors, and he now projects as an average all-around player with contact ability, a little bit of power, some speed, and decent defense at shortstop. Overall that gives him more of a utility projection, though a few tweaks to his approach (he reached AAA at just 21) and a little bit of luck could help him become a starting shortstop in the near future, albeit not one who will hit in the middle of the lineup. 24 year old Dawel Lugo, who was a part of the Cliff Pennington trade in 2015 and the J.D. Martinez deal of 2017, has a very light bat but is in the right place at the right time to try to compete for a starting spot in Detroit. This year he slashed .269/.283/.350 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 66/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Toledo, then hit .213/.267/.309 in 27 major league games. On most teams, Lugo would be more of a fringe-prospect, but the Tigers are shallow enough in the infield that he has a shot there and could use his solid feel for the barrel to get major league playing time. Defensively, he has a good arm but will probably split time between second and third base, but he'll have to get more patient at the plate if he wants to remain in the major leagues. Down low in the minors, 22 year old Kody Clemens (son of Roger) was a third round pick (79th overall) out of Texas this year, following up a huge redshirt junior season for the Longhorns (24 HR, .351/.444/.726) with a strong pro debut by slashing .288/.365/.450 with five home runs and a 39/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. He has power but many, myself included, questioned his ability to get to it consistently in pro ball. He answered that question at least as far as Class A goes (.302/.387/.477), but the real test will be in the higher levels as his long swing may lead to high strikeout totals. Defensively, he's just okay at second base, so the bat will have to carry him. If he continues to produce like he did in college and in Class A, then that should be no problem. Lastly, 23 year old Jake Rogers came over to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade then slashed .219/.305/.412 with 17 home runs and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Erie. This was a step back from his 2017 numbers (.261/.350/.467 in A ball), but his bat isn't what makes him a big prospect. Rogers fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block anything and whose cannon arm makes potential base stealers very cautious. Because his glove is so good at a premium position and could likely win Gold Gloves at the major league level, all he has to do is hit a little bit in order to get to the majors. While the bat is a little bit more of a question mark now than it was last year, he still showed some power, and if he can get to it enough to hit 15 home runs per season in the majors, he should be able to be a major league starting catcher.
Other Pitchers: RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Logan Shore, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Grayson Long, and RHP Bryan Garcia
While the four straight first round picks are truly the core of the farm system, the Tigers have plenty of other good pitchers, too. 20 year old Franklin Perez is easily the best prospect in the group, though injuries limited him to seven starts in 2018 and he posted a 6.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings at High A Lakeland and complex ball rehab. While he didn't get a chance to prove anything on the field in 2018 after being traded to the Tigers in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade, the raw talent is very exciting. The 6'3" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are weapons and all of which he commands very well for someone his age. Having not gotten the chance to make any progress in 2018, he's not a guaranteed starter down the road, but he has top of the rotation potential and he'll spend all of 2019 at 20 years old. 24 year old Logan Shore came over to the Tigers in the Mike Fiers trade, though he never pitched for a Tigers affiliate in 2018 after putting up a 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings at High A and AA for the A's. Shore was actually the Florida Gators' ace ahead of A's sixth overall pick A.J. Puk in 2016, though unlike Puk, he's more about pitchability over stuff. The 6'2" righty throws in the low 90's and adds a great changeup and a mediocre slider, though he is able to succeed because he mixes his pitches well and locates them even more effectively. He likely never ends up more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a good shot at cracking a major league rotation or at the very least becoming an effective long reliever. 25 year old Matt Hall is an older prospect, but he had an outstanding season in the upper minors this year by going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. That was an extension of the success he's had throughout his minor league career, as the six foot lefty is now 28-11 with a 2.48 ERA over nearly 100 minor league appearances. He only throws about 90 and isn't a control artist like Shore, but his great curveball enables everything else to play up and has carried him all the way to the majors, though he was shelled for 16 runs (13 earned) over just eight innings in his short stint with the Tigers. Presently, he's likely more of a long relief candidate than a rotation guy, but if can improve his command a little bit, he could stick as a back-end starter. 23 year old Gregory Soto is another promising arm, having posted a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 115/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings at Lakeland. However, we'll have to wait a little bit to see him in 2019 as he'll miss the first 20 games of the season after being suspended for "conduct detrimental or prejudicial to baseball." He only throws in the low 90's but gets enough movement on his fastball that hitters have a tough time squaring it up, though the rest of his game needs work. His curveball and changeup are nothing special and he struggles with command, but the Tigers like his live arm and hope they can help his stuff tick up. I'm less enamored with him and I think he ends up a reliever, but he's a breakout candidate if he can learn some command. 24 year old Grayson Long and 23 year old Bryan Garcia both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, so both will definitely come into 2019 with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Long is a 6'5" righty out of Texas A&M who came over from the Angels in the Justin Upton trade, coming off a 2017 where he had a 3.01 ERA and a 128/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A and AA. Meanwhile, Garcia is a 6'1" right handed reliever out of the University of Miami who posted a 2.13 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings across four levels in 2017. Long will be 25 in May, but he was close to the major league ready when he went down with the surgery and should be able to compete for a back-end rotation spot in the near future. Garcia, meanwhile, is a hard throwing fastball/slider guy who was also close to major league ready, and he should be in the bullpen mix pretty soon after he's healthy. While Long looks like a back-end starter, Garcia has the upside of a late-inning reliever.
Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie Seawolves, High A Lakeland Flying Tigers, Class A West Michigan Whitecaps, Short Season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers
High Drafted Arms: RHP Beau Burrows, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Alex Faedo, RHP Casey Mize, and RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Each of the Tigers' last four first round picks have been right handed pitchers, and those four are now the core of the farm system. In 2015, Detroit grabbed now-22 year old Beau Burrows out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd overall pick, and he just posted a 4.10 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 127/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings at AA Erie. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a full assortment with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, which he commands well enough to give him an overall projection as a workhorse #3 or #4 starter. Sharpening his command a little bit further will ensure that he ends up a useful mid-rotation arm, though at present it looks unlikely that he ends up as anything less than a #5 starter. 20 year old Matt Manning was the Tigers' first round pick (ninth overall) out of a Sacramento high school in 2016 and he has been just as good as advertised. In 2018, he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 154/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings at Class A West Michigan, High A Lakeland, and Erie, handling both promotions easily. He throws in the low to mid 90's with a very loose arm and adds a very good curveball, one which has enabled him to put up strikeouts in bunches. His command is really the only thing that needs to come along, but his mechanics are improving as he grows into his skinny 6'6" frame and with his athleticism, I think he ends up with above average command in the end. He has ace upside, but like any other 20 year old prospect, he'll have to stay healthy and continue to make progress with his delivery in order to reach it. In 2017, the Tigers' first round pick (18th overall) was now-23 year old Alex Faedo from the University of Florida, and Faedo put up a solid first pro season by posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 110/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at Lakeland and Erie. The big 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds an excellent slider and a good changeup, but his command is just inconsistent enough to keep him from being considered an elite prospect. With no improvement in his start to start command, he looks like a #4 starter, but he has chance to be a very good mid-rotation guy, possibly even a #2, if he can bring it all together. He'll require more minor league seasoning in 2019 but look for Faedo to be knocking on the door when it comes to September call-ups. Most recently, the Tigers took 21 year old Casey Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn, and Mize posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings between complex ball and Lakeland in his debut. The 6'3" righty is already close to major league ready, bringing a mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a devastating splitter to the table and commanding it all with ease. His combination of stuff and command could work in the major leagues today, the only reason he isn't going straight to the majors is that he just needs to see professional hitters and learn how to handle them first, which shouldn't be a problem. The only knock on Mize comes from a durability standpoint, as he was shut down at the end of his freshman and sophomore seasons at Auburn then stumbled a little bit down the stretch in his junior year, but the Tigers might look to smooth out his delivery just a little bit. His delivery isn't high-effort, per se, but he doesn't have the loosest arm action in the world and a few minor tweaks could make Mize an ace who will be in the majors very soon. Lastly, I'll add that 24 year old Kyle Funkhouser, the Tigers' fourth round pick out of Louisville in 2016, has been a big draft find as well. Funkhouser was considered a potential top ten pick at points during the 2015 season, but he slid with an up and down junior season, didn't sign when the Dodgers drafted him 35th overall, then slid to the fourth round in 2016. However, he has turned that slide around in the minors, and in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings between Erie and AAA Toledo before a foot injury ended his season in July. He throws in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal with a slider, curveball, and changeup, commanding it all well enough to make it work. Nothing really stands out about his game, but he has already proven himself against AA competition and he'll get another shot at AAA in 2019, after which he could compete as a back-end starter or a long reliever.
Outfielders: OF Christin Stewart, OF Daz Cameron, OF Jacob Robson, OF Dustin Peterson, OF Parker Meadows, and OF Brock Deatherage
Most of the Tigers' best outfield prospects are close to the majors at this point, and with Nicholas Castellanos looking like the only sure-starter out there, it's wide open for some of these guys to seize starting roles in the very near future. 25 year old Christin Stewart, who slashed .267/.375/.417 with a pair of home runs in his 17 game MLB debut in 2018, is arguably the top prospect in this group. He's a power hitter who has clubbed 83 home runs over the past three minor league seasons, and in 2018 he slashed .263/.363/.488 with 25 home runs and a 108/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games, almost all at AAA Toledo. He packs a lot of pop for a six footer, and in 2018, he addressed his biggest offensive weakness and dropped his strikeout rate from 2017's 24.9% to a better 20.7% (excluding ten punchless plate appearances in complex ball) despite moving up from AA to AAA. He kept it up in a small MLB sample, his 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances coming out to 18.1%. All of his value will be tied to his bat because he's a mediocre defender in left field, but with his power, high walk rate, and lower strikeout rate, he could open 2019 as the Tigers' starting left fielder and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't win it. Right behind him on the depth chart is 22 year old Daz Cameron, who came over from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade and slashed .264/.343/.406 with eight home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 137/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and Toledo. Cameron's speed makes him a valuable defender in center field as well as an asset on the bases, but his bat is beginning to come along too. Unlike Stewart, he will always be glove-first, but Cameron has enough feel for the barrel and a patient enough approach to get on base at a good clip, and his wiry strength gives him enough power to where he's not just a contact hitter. The overall offensive package is pretty average and he probably never ends up being an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup, but the good center field defense buys the bat enough slack that he has a good chance of becoming a starting outfielder, if not in 2019 then in 2020. 24 year olds Jacob Robson and Dustin Peterson are more likely to end up fourth outfielders, with Robson having slashed .295/.376/.440 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 140/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Erie and Toledo and Peterson having slashed .268/.324/.406 with 11 home runs and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at the Braves' AAA affiliate in Gwinnett. Robson is a more complete player and therefore the better prospect, showing a little bit of everything but no standout tool aside from his speed. Not known for his power, his 44 extra base hits and .440 slugging percentage were a surprise in 2018, but the 5'10", 175 pounder strikes out enough to where he probably won't get to his power as much in the majors. Peterson, meanwhile, has more natural power and is more likely to get to it in the majors, but he has been inconsistent and even at his best, his power plays closer to average, and unlike Robson he doesn't have that speed to fall back on. Peterson and Robson could compliment each other nicely on the Detroit bench if there is room for both. Down lower in the minors, 19 year old Parker Meadows, the younger brother of now-Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, was the Tigers' second round pick (44th overall) in 2018 and slashed a nice .290/.377/.473 with four home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in complex ball and with short season Connecticut. Standing at 6'5", the skinny outfielder's glove is presently ahead of his bat, as he moves well for such a tall kid and has a good arm. He's more about projection at the plate, as his long (too long if you ask some) swing has plenty of bat speed and loft, combining with his height to give him the chance for really big power down the road. That long swing, as well as some difficulty with pitch recognition, causes him to swing and miss a fair amount, but pro coaching and refinement could help him click at the plate and shoot him to the top of the Tigers' prospect rankings in the future. For now, consider him a long-term project who could turn into a speedier Christin Stewart if it works out. Lastly, 23 year old Brock Deatherage was a tenth round pick out of NC State in 2018, but he quickly made himself known by slashing .326/.385/.504 with seven home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games between complex ball, Class A West Michigan, and Lakeland. A streaky hitter in college, I saw him play during his senior season and his swing immediately stuck out to me. Like Meadows, he has a very long swing, but the strength and whip in his wrists helps him generate more power than you'd expect for a skinny, speedy, 6'1" kid. The length in his swing, as well as so-so plate discipline, also caused his streakiness in college, but he proved himself quickly in A ball and pro coaching could make him a steal in the tenth round. I'm a Deatherage fan and he might no longer be a sleeper prospect after the 2019 season.
Infielders and Catchers: 3B Isaac Paredes, SS Willi Castro, IF Dawel Lugo, 2B Kody Clemens, and C Jake Rogers
The Tigers aren't very deep when it comes to infield prospects, but the short list includes their best position-playing prospect in Isaac Paredes and unlike many teams, they actually have a viable catching prospect in Jake Rogers. 19 year old Isaac Paredes has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserves when it comes to top prospect discussions around the league, and he alone will likely make the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade with the Cubs look like a robbery. The teenager slashed .278/.359/.456 with 15 home runs and a 76/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, looking even better after his promotion and showing a wide range of skills against much older competition. He is growing into some moderate power, makes ready contact, and has a very advanced approach at the plate, giving him a very high floor and the potential to become a top of the lineup bat. Defensively, he has more question marks with a fringe-average glove and a good arm, so he likely moves off of shortstop and ends up at second or third base in the long run. He has the bat to profile at either, and because he turns just 20 years old during spring training, he has plenty of time to make further adjustments and become an impact hitter. 21 year old Willi Castro is over from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin trade and slashed .264/.315/.392 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA Akron/Erie and AAA Toledo. He has been improving on both sides of the ball as he has moved through the minors, and he now projects as an average all-around player with contact ability, a little bit of power, some speed, and decent defense at shortstop. Overall that gives him more of a utility projection, though a few tweaks to his approach (he reached AAA at just 21) and a little bit of luck could help him become a starting shortstop in the near future, albeit not one who will hit in the middle of the lineup. 24 year old Dawel Lugo, who was a part of the Cliff Pennington trade in 2015 and the J.D. Martinez deal of 2017, has a very light bat but is in the right place at the right time to try to compete for a starting spot in Detroit. This year he slashed .269/.283/.350 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 66/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Toledo, then hit .213/.267/.309 in 27 major league games. On most teams, Lugo would be more of a fringe-prospect, but the Tigers are shallow enough in the infield that he has a shot there and could use his solid feel for the barrel to get major league playing time. Defensively, he has a good arm but will probably split time between second and third base, but he'll have to get more patient at the plate if he wants to remain in the major leagues. Down low in the minors, 22 year old Kody Clemens (son of Roger) was a third round pick (79th overall) out of Texas this year, following up a huge redshirt junior season for the Longhorns (24 HR, .351/.444/.726) with a strong pro debut by slashing .288/.365/.450 with five home runs and a 39/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. He has power but many, myself included, questioned his ability to get to it consistently in pro ball. He answered that question at least as far as Class A goes (.302/.387/.477), but the real test will be in the higher levels as his long swing may lead to high strikeout totals. Defensively, he's just okay at second base, so the bat will have to carry him. If he continues to produce like he did in college and in Class A, then that should be no problem. Lastly, 23 year old Jake Rogers came over to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade then slashed .219/.305/.412 with 17 home runs and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Erie. This was a step back from his 2017 numbers (.261/.350/.467 in A ball), but his bat isn't what makes him a big prospect. Rogers fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block anything and whose cannon arm makes potential base stealers very cautious. Because his glove is so good at a premium position and could likely win Gold Gloves at the major league level, all he has to do is hit a little bit in order to get to the majors. While the bat is a little bit more of a question mark now than it was last year, he still showed some power, and if he can get to it enough to hit 15 home runs per season in the majors, he should be able to be a major league starting catcher.
Other Pitchers: RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Logan Shore, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Grayson Long, and RHP Bryan Garcia
While the four straight first round picks are truly the core of the farm system, the Tigers have plenty of other good pitchers, too. 20 year old Franklin Perez is easily the best prospect in the group, though injuries limited him to seven starts in 2018 and he posted a 6.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings at High A Lakeland and complex ball rehab. While he didn't get a chance to prove anything on the field in 2018 after being traded to the Tigers in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade, the raw talent is very exciting. The 6'3" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are weapons and all of which he commands very well for someone his age. Having not gotten the chance to make any progress in 2018, he's not a guaranteed starter down the road, but he has top of the rotation potential and he'll spend all of 2019 at 20 years old. 24 year old Logan Shore came over to the Tigers in the Mike Fiers trade, though he never pitched for a Tigers affiliate in 2018 after putting up a 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings at High A and AA for the A's. Shore was actually the Florida Gators' ace ahead of A's sixth overall pick A.J. Puk in 2016, though unlike Puk, he's more about pitchability over stuff. The 6'2" righty throws in the low 90's and adds a great changeup and a mediocre slider, though he is able to succeed because he mixes his pitches well and locates them even more effectively. He likely never ends up more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a good shot at cracking a major league rotation or at the very least becoming an effective long reliever. 25 year old Matt Hall is an older prospect, but he had an outstanding season in the upper minors this year by going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. That was an extension of the success he's had throughout his minor league career, as the six foot lefty is now 28-11 with a 2.48 ERA over nearly 100 minor league appearances. He only throws about 90 and isn't a control artist like Shore, but his great curveball enables everything else to play up and has carried him all the way to the majors, though he was shelled for 16 runs (13 earned) over just eight innings in his short stint with the Tigers. Presently, he's likely more of a long relief candidate than a rotation guy, but if can improve his command a little bit, he could stick as a back-end starter. 23 year old Gregory Soto is another promising arm, having posted a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 115/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings at Lakeland. However, we'll have to wait a little bit to see him in 2019 as he'll miss the first 20 games of the season after being suspended for "conduct detrimental or prejudicial to baseball." He only throws in the low 90's but gets enough movement on his fastball that hitters have a tough time squaring it up, though the rest of his game needs work. His curveball and changeup are nothing special and he struggles with command, but the Tigers like his live arm and hope they can help his stuff tick up. I'm less enamored with him and I think he ends up a reliever, but he's a breakout candidate if he can learn some command. 24 year old Grayson Long and 23 year old Bryan Garcia both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, so both will definitely come into 2019 with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Long is a 6'5" righty out of Texas A&M who came over from the Angels in the Justin Upton trade, coming off a 2017 where he had a 3.01 ERA and a 128/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A and AA. Meanwhile, Garcia is a 6'1" right handed reliever out of the University of Miami who posted a 2.13 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings across four levels in 2017. Long will be 25 in May, but he was close to the major league ready when he went down with the surgery and should be able to compete for a back-end rotation spot in the near future. Garcia, meanwhile, is a hard throwing fastball/slider guy who was also close to major league ready, and he should be in the bullpen mix pretty soon after he's healthy. While Long looks like a back-end starter, Garcia has the upside of a late-inning reliever.
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Ten Prospects Who Improved Their Stock in 2018
These 10 prospects, in no particular order, have improved their stock tremendously in 2018. Some of them might have already been well-regarded and others may have popped out of nowhere, but if you enjoy getting an early look at the future of the game, these are ten names you should absolutely familiarize yourself with.
**Juan Soto, despite beginning the season as a prospect, will not be included on this list because he has exceeded rookie limits at the major league level. Even though he came into the season as arguably the Nationals' second best prospect behind Victor Robles, with 14 home runs and a .303/.421/.542 slash line as a 19 year old, he has exceeded even the wildest of expectations.
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, Age 19)
18 HR, .400/.454/.681, 3 SB, 32/30 K/BB, 208 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 3 at GCL, 1 at High A, 61 at AA, 12 at AAA
Vladimir Guerrero's son entered the season already considered one of the top prospects in baseball, coming off a 2017 where he slashed .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs and an excellent 62/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, playing the entire season at 18 years old. However, in 2018, he has gone from potential superstar to likely superstar, which is a huge jump. In 77 games between AA New Hampshire, AAA Buffalo, and rehab work, his slash line is an incredible .400/.454/.681, as he has clobbered 18 home runs and struck out 32 times to 30 walks. The kid is nearly half a year younger than Juan Soto and is absolutely obliterating the high minors, including an unfathomable .395/.489/.763 line, four home runs (all in consecutive games), and a tremendous 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games since his promotion to AAA. His defense is coming along, and while he's not Nolan Arenado at third base, he has worked hard to be serviceable there and that work ethic spreads to the rest of his game. Even if you're just a casual fan, you should learn his name; he has the potential to be every bit as good as his Hall of Fame dad. Junior has tremendous power, tremendous plate discipline, and the work ethic to get the most out of it. I can see him hitting 30+ home runs per season with an on-base percentage above .400.
SS Wander Franco (Rays, Age 17)
8 HR, .367/.423/.606, 4 SB, 14/18 K/BB, 164 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 45 in rookie level Appalachian League
If you have heard the name before, you might be thinking of his brother, Wander Franco, a prospect in the Giants organization. Or his other brother, Wander Franco, also a prospect in the Giants organization. His dad is also named Wander Franco. It's a little weird. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, this Wander Franco was already well regarded before the season, signing for a $3.85 million bonus (about what a mid-first round pick would sign for) out of the Dominican Republic and rating as the top prospect in the international class. However, his minor league debut has been one of the best in history for a 17 year old, as he started off in the rookie level Appalachian League (two levels higher than where most kids his age begin their careers), and he is absolutely crushing it. Through 45 games in a league where you typically see 21 year old college players beginning their careers, Franco is slashing .367/.423/.606 with eight home runs and more walks (18) than strikeouts (14) despite being born in the year 2001 (feel old yet?). The combination of power and average is great, but what really stands out to me is the plate discipline. A 9% walk rate isn't particularly high, but his 7% strikeout rate is minuscule for any player, especially for a literal kid playing with people quite a few years older than him while also hitting for power. He plays shortstop right now and while he may move off the position, he also may stay there, which would give him the potential to be both an impact bat and an impact glove at the same time. Obviously, he's a long way off, but you can't start your career any better than this.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (A's, Age 20)
10-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122/25 K/BB, 101.2 IP
Game Breakdown: 3 starts in High A, 16 in AA, 2 in AAA
Luzardo was a well regarded high school arm coming out of Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016, and upon returning from Tommy John surgery in mid 2017, he looked great over 43.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are all great, but they were all in the low minors and he had plenty to prove in 2018. Well, he started at High A Stockton and posted a 1.23 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, quickly earning a promotion to AA Midland. There, he was excellent in 16 starts, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 86/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings, earning another promotion, this one to AAA Nashville at just 20 years old. He has made two starts there, striking out eleven and walking only two over 8.1 innings but also allowing four runs. Over the course of the season, he has not only proven he is healthy by throwing 101.2 innings, but also that his stuff can play up against upper level minor leaguers right now, and the major leagues are just around the corner.
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, Age 22)
7-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 114/7 K/BB, 85 IP
Game Breakdown: 10 starts in High A, 6 in AA
The emergence of Paddack, in my opinion, is enough to tip the scale from the Braves to the Padres for the best farm system in baseball. Paddack was off to a fantastic start at Class A in 2016, posting a 0.85 ERA over nine starts, but he went down with Tommy John and not only missed the rest of the season, but all of 2017 as well. Fully healthy for 2018, the Padres started off the 22 year old at High A Lake Elsinore in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but he was unfazed by the environment; In ten starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a straight up ridiculous 83/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.1 innings. Promoted to AA San Antonio, in July, he has been just as good, if not better, through six starts; 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB in 32.2 innings. The strikeout rate dropped a little from the ridiculous 40.9% rate he had in High A to a more reasonable 27% in AA, while the walk rate stayed virtually the same (2% up to 2.6%). Despite the high strikeout rate, the stuff is more good than great, and he really makes his living by locating it around the zone. It won't cause him to rack up the strikeouts in the majors, but it's enough to keep minor league hitters swinging through pitches and it will help him be a fine mid rotation or back-end starter in the majors. Really, the biggest thing about this season was supposed to be about proving he was healthy, but he has done much more than that. Through his minor league career, he is now 13-5 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 224/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 172.2 innings.
RHP Justin Dunn (Mets, Age 22)
7-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128/39 K/BB, 114 IP
Game Breakdown: 9 starts in High A, 11 in AA
Dunn was taken 19th overall out of Boston College in 2016 on the heels of a breakout junior year, and although he continued that success into a strong pro debut in the New York-Penn League that year (1.50 ERA, 35/10 K/BB), he struggled big time in his promotion to High A Port St. Lucie in 2017. Over 20 games (16 starts) in his first full pro season, Dunn went 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 75/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, even seeing his season end early due to shoulder fatigue in August. The most troubling thing about the season was his strikeout rate; inconsistency in his secondary pitches led to an uncharacteristically low 17.3% strikeout rate, which isn't good for a fireballing first rounder. He began 2018 back in High A, but the results were different; in nine starts, he went 2-3 with a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings, bumping that strikeout rate up to 25.9% and watching his walk rate fall from 11.1% to 7.6%. Upon his promotion to AA Binghamton, it was more of the same, as he went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while racking up 77 strikeouts against 24 walks in 68.1 innings (27.4% to 8.5%). The increased consistency in his stuff his huge; while it obviously helped him be more successful across two important minor league levels, it shows a clear step forward from his more raw college days and his rough 2017. The stuff has always been there when he has been at his best; now that he has proven that he can maintain his best stuff, the risk he ends up in the bullpen is much lower and his shot at being a mid-rotation starter or better in New York has improved.
1B Nathaniel Lowe (Rays, Age 23)
25 HR, .349/.436/.602, 1 SB, 70/61 K/BB, 191 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 51 at High A, 50 at AA, 6 at AAA
Coming into the season, Lowe was a fringe prospect who was a fine hitter in the mid minors, but who didn't quite show enough power for a first baseman and who would probably get lost in the shuffle if he didn't do something soon. Well, he did something. He began at High A Charlotte, the same place he finished last year (and where he slashed .249/.355/.353), but was much better; after 51 games, he was slashing .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to AA Montgomery, he kept on hitting. Through 50 games, he slashed .342/.446/.610 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Recently, he was bumped up again, this time to AAA Durham, where he is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a pair of home runs and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games. He has not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also average and plate discipline. Bumping up his walk rate from 11.4% to 15.6% and dropping his strikeout rate from 15% to 13.4% between High A and AA is an especially good sign, showing that he can control the strike zone against advanced pitching, which bodes well for major league success. He entered the season as a fringe prospect, but now he may be the first baseman of the future in Tampa.
C Ronaldo Hernandez (Rays, Age 20)
18 HR, .286/.339/.499, 9 SB, 61/26 K/BB, 133 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 95 at Class A
Catching prospects are hard to come by, so whenever one shows the ability to hit, they immediately become extremely valuable. Hernandez didn't pop out of nowhere; as a 19 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League last year, he slashed .332/.382/.507 with five home runs over 54 games. However, plenty of guys hit over somewhat small samples in rookie ball and struggle to translate it up. That's why his success this year, including a .286/.339/.499 line and 18 home runs in 95 games, is so important. Class A is a big jump up from the Appalachian League, and by maintaining his success over a larger sample, he has proven that the bat is for real. The 61/26 strikeout to walk ratio isn't excellent but it isn't bad either, and just proving that he is a catcher who can hit is enough to bump his stock up considerably. He has a long way still to go, but he's just 20 and he's right on track.
RHP Luis Patino (Padres, Age 18)
5-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 86/20 K/BB, 71.2 IP
Game Breakdown: All 15 starts in Class A
Patino was an electric arm coming out of Colombia, and success in his complex level (lowest minor league level) debut in 2017 (2.25 ERA, 58/18 K/BB) was a nice indicator. Like Hernandez, Class A was set to be the first real test, and he has passed with flying colors at two years younger than Hernandez. Through 15 starts for Fort Wayne, he is 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 86 and walking 20 in 71.2 innings despite not turning 19 until October. For an 18 year old, a 30% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate will do. While the strikeout rate is impressive, I'm more impressed by the low walk rate, just because of his young age as well as because of the advanced competition he is facing in the Midwest League. At this rate, he could be in AA before his 20th birthday and could be in the majors before he can drink, which is saying a lot for the kid who began in the Dominican Summer League just last season.
SS Isaac Paredes (Tigers, Age 19)
13 HR, .267/.344/.444, 2 SB, 66/40 K/BB, 123 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 84 in High A, 21 in AA
Paredes is another young guy who is proving himself based on holding his own against much older competition. Beginning the season at High A Lakeland, he slashed .259/.338/.455 with 12 home runs and a 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing a little bit of plate discipline, power, and defense. Promoted to AA at just 19 years old, he has continued producing, slashing .303/.372/.394 with a home run and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games. It's a small sample so I won't fault him for the slight decrease in power, but it's really nice to see both the strikeout rate (15.6% in High A to 15.4% in AA) and the walk rate (9.2% to 10.3%) hold up with the promotion. Young players who can control the strike zone against advanced pitching have a great chance of maintaining that production as they move up, and Paredes could be in the major leagues next season at just 20 years old.
SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers, Age 20)
13 HR, .327/.396/.521, 12 SB, 76/45 K/BB, 148 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 88 at High A, 9 at AA
High school bats, especially from the north (Lux is from Wisconsin), often take some time to develop, and Lux really broke out in 2018. After a so-so season at Class A Great Lakes in 2017, where he slashed an uninspiring .244/.331/.362 with a respectable 88/56 strikeout to walk ratio as a teenager, 2018 has been a different story. The bat developed at High A Rancho Cucamonga, where he slashed .324/.396/.520 with 11 home runs and a 68/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, earning a recent promotion to AA Tulsa. The jump from Rancho Cucamonga to Tulsa is a big one, as Rancho Cucamonga is in the extremely hitter-friendly California League and Tulsa skews a bit more pitcher friendly, on top of the large jump from one level to the next. However, through nine games, he is showing no signs of slowing down, slashing .359/.390/.538 with a pair of home runs and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio. In all, Lux is a 20 year old bat that took his prospect status from "project with a high ceiling" to "AA hitter who is fulfilling his promise and is not too far from a major league opportunity." Throw in his 12 stolen bases this year and his ability to play shortstop, and the Dodgers have something special.
Others: Taylor Ward (Angels), Touki Toussaint (Braves), William Contreras (Braves), Bruce Zimmerman (Orioles), Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
**Juan Soto, despite beginning the season as a prospect, will not be included on this list because he has exceeded rookie limits at the major league level. Even though he came into the season as arguably the Nationals' second best prospect behind Victor Robles, with 14 home runs and a .303/.421/.542 slash line as a 19 year old, he has exceeded even the wildest of expectations.
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, Age 19)
18 HR, .400/.454/.681, 3 SB, 32/30 K/BB, 208 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 3 at GCL, 1 at High A, 61 at AA, 12 at AAA
Vladimir Guerrero's son entered the season already considered one of the top prospects in baseball, coming off a 2017 where he slashed .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs and an excellent 62/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, playing the entire season at 18 years old. However, in 2018, he has gone from potential superstar to likely superstar, which is a huge jump. In 77 games between AA New Hampshire, AAA Buffalo, and rehab work, his slash line is an incredible .400/.454/.681, as he has clobbered 18 home runs and struck out 32 times to 30 walks. The kid is nearly half a year younger than Juan Soto and is absolutely obliterating the high minors, including an unfathomable .395/.489/.763 line, four home runs (all in consecutive games), and a tremendous 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games since his promotion to AAA. His defense is coming along, and while he's not Nolan Arenado at third base, he has worked hard to be serviceable there and that work ethic spreads to the rest of his game. Even if you're just a casual fan, you should learn his name; he has the potential to be every bit as good as his Hall of Fame dad. Junior has tremendous power, tremendous plate discipline, and the work ethic to get the most out of it. I can see him hitting 30+ home runs per season with an on-base percentage above .400.
SS Wander Franco (Rays, Age 17)
8 HR, .367/.423/.606, 4 SB, 14/18 K/BB, 164 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 45 in rookie level Appalachian League
If you have heard the name before, you might be thinking of his brother, Wander Franco, a prospect in the Giants organization. Or his other brother, Wander Franco, also a prospect in the Giants organization. His dad is also named Wander Franco. It's a little weird. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, this Wander Franco was already well regarded before the season, signing for a $3.85 million bonus (about what a mid-first round pick would sign for) out of the Dominican Republic and rating as the top prospect in the international class. However, his minor league debut has been one of the best in history for a 17 year old, as he started off in the rookie level Appalachian League (two levels higher than where most kids his age begin their careers), and he is absolutely crushing it. Through 45 games in a league where you typically see 21 year old college players beginning their careers, Franco is slashing .367/.423/.606 with eight home runs and more walks (18) than strikeouts (14) despite being born in the year 2001 (feel old yet?). The combination of power and average is great, but what really stands out to me is the plate discipline. A 9% walk rate isn't particularly high, but his 7% strikeout rate is minuscule for any player, especially for a literal kid playing with people quite a few years older than him while also hitting for power. He plays shortstop right now and while he may move off the position, he also may stay there, which would give him the potential to be both an impact bat and an impact glove at the same time. Obviously, he's a long way off, but you can't start your career any better than this.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (A's, Age 20)
10-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122/25 K/BB, 101.2 IP
Game Breakdown: 3 starts in High A, 16 in AA, 2 in AAA
Luzardo was a well regarded high school arm coming out of Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016, and upon returning from Tommy John surgery in mid 2017, he looked great over 43.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are all great, but they were all in the low minors and he had plenty to prove in 2018. Well, he started at High A Stockton and posted a 1.23 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, quickly earning a promotion to AA Midland. There, he was excellent in 16 starts, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 86/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings, earning another promotion, this one to AAA Nashville at just 20 years old. He has made two starts there, striking out eleven and walking only two over 8.1 innings but also allowing four runs. Over the course of the season, he has not only proven he is healthy by throwing 101.2 innings, but also that his stuff can play up against upper level minor leaguers right now, and the major leagues are just around the corner.
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, Age 22)
7-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 114/7 K/BB, 85 IP
Game Breakdown: 10 starts in High A, 6 in AA
The emergence of Paddack, in my opinion, is enough to tip the scale from the Braves to the Padres for the best farm system in baseball. Paddack was off to a fantastic start at Class A in 2016, posting a 0.85 ERA over nine starts, but he went down with Tommy John and not only missed the rest of the season, but all of 2017 as well. Fully healthy for 2018, the Padres started off the 22 year old at High A Lake Elsinore in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but he was unfazed by the environment; In ten starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a straight up ridiculous 83/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.1 innings. Promoted to AA San Antonio, in July, he has been just as good, if not better, through six starts; 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB in 32.2 innings. The strikeout rate dropped a little from the ridiculous 40.9% rate he had in High A to a more reasonable 27% in AA, while the walk rate stayed virtually the same (2% up to 2.6%). Despite the high strikeout rate, the stuff is more good than great, and he really makes his living by locating it around the zone. It won't cause him to rack up the strikeouts in the majors, but it's enough to keep minor league hitters swinging through pitches and it will help him be a fine mid rotation or back-end starter in the majors. Really, the biggest thing about this season was supposed to be about proving he was healthy, but he has done much more than that. Through his minor league career, he is now 13-5 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 224/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 172.2 innings.
RHP Justin Dunn (Mets, Age 22)
7-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128/39 K/BB, 114 IP
Game Breakdown: 9 starts in High A, 11 in AA
Dunn was taken 19th overall out of Boston College in 2016 on the heels of a breakout junior year, and although he continued that success into a strong pro debut in the New York-Penn League that year (1.50 ERA, 35/10 K/BB), he struggled big time in his promotion to High A Port St. Lucie in 2017. Over 20 games (16 starts) in his first full pro season, Dunn went 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 75/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, even seeing his season end early due to shoulder fatigue in August. The most troubling thing about the season was his strikeout rate; inconsistency in his secondary pitches led to an uncharacteristically low 17.3% strikeout rate, which isn't good for a fireballing first rounder. He began 2018 back in High A, but the results were different; in nine starts, he went 2-3 with a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings, bumping that strikeout rate up to 25.9% and watching his walk rate fall from 11.1% to 7.6%. Upon his promotion to AA Binghamton, it was more of the same, as he went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while racking up 77 strikeouts against 24 walks in 68.1 innings (27.4% to 8.5%). The increased consistency in his stuff his huge; while it obviously helped him be more successful across two important minor league levels, it shows a clear step forward from his more raw college days and his rough 2017. The stuff has always been there when he has been at his best; now that he has proven that he can maintain his best stuff, the risk he ends up in the bullpen is much lower and his shot at being a mid-rotation starter or better in New York has improved.
1B Nathaniel Lowe (Rays, Age 23)
25 HR, .349/.436/.602, 1 SB, 70/61 K/BB, 191 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 51 at High A, 50 at AA, 6 at AAA
Coming into the season, Lowe was a fringe prospect who was a fine hitter in the mid minors, but who didn't quite show enough power for a first baseman and who would probably get lost in the shuffle if he didn't do something soon. Well, he did something. He began at High A Charlotte, the same place he finished last year (and where he slashed .249/.355/.353), but was much better; after 51 games, he was slashing .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to AA Montgomery, he kept on hitting. Through 50 games, he slashed .342/.446/.610 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Recently, he was bumped up again, this time to AAA Durham, where he is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a pair of home runs and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games. He has not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also average and plate discipline. Bumping up his walk rate from 11.4% to 15.6% and dropping his strikeout rate from 15% to 13.4% between High A and AA is an especially good sign, showing that he can control the strike zone against advanced pitching, which bodes well for major league success. He entered the season as a fringe prospect, but now he may be the first baseman of the future in Tampa.
C Ronaldo Hernandez (Rays, Age 20)
18 HR, .286/.339/.499, 9 SB, 61/26 K/BB, 133 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 95 at Class A
Catching prospects are hard to come by, so whenever one shows the ability to hit, they immediately become extremely valuable. Hernandez didn't pop out of nowhere; as a 19 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League last year, he slashed .332/.382/.507 with five home runs over 54 games. However, plenty of guys hit over somewhat small samples in rookie ball and struggle to translate it up. That's why his success this year, including a .286/.339/.499 line and 18 home runs in 95 games, is so important. Class A is a big jump up from the Appalachian League, and by maintaining his success over a larger sample, he has proven that the bat is for real. The 61/26 strikeout to walk ratio isn't excellent but it isn't bad either, and just proving that he is a catcher who can hit is enough to bump his stock up considerably. He has a long way still to go, but he's just 20 and he's right on track.
RHP Luis Patino (Padres, Age 18)
5-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 86/20 K/BB, 71.2 IP
Game Breakdown: All 15 starts in Class A
Patino was an electric arm coming out of Colombia, and success in his complex level (lowest minor league level) debut in 2017 (2.25 ERA, 58/18 K/BB) was a nice indicator. Like Hernandez, Class A was set to be the first real test, and he has passed with flying colors at two years younger than Hernandez. Through 15 starts for Fort Wayne, he is 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 86 and walking 20 in 71.2 innings despite not turning 19 until October. For an 18 year old, a 30% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate will do. While the strikeout rate is impressive, I'm more impressed by the low walk rate, just because of his young age as well as because of the advanced competition he is facing in the Midwest League. At this rate, he could be in AA before his 20th birthday and could be in the majors before he can drink, which is saying a lot for the kid who began in the Dominican Summer League just last season.
SS Isaac Paredes (Tigers, Age 19)
13 HR, .267/.344/.444, 2 SB, 66/40 K/BB, 123 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 84 in High A, 21 in AA
Paredes is another young guy who is proving himself based on holding his own against much older competition. Beginning the season at High A Lakeland, he slashed .259/.338/.455 with 12 home runs and a 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing a little bit of plate discipline, power, and defense. Promoted to AA at just 19 years old, he has continued producing, slashing .303/.372/.394 with a home run and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games. It's a small sample so I won't fault him for the slight decrease in power, but it's really nice to see both the strikeout rate (15.6% in High A to 15.4% in AA) and the walk rate (9.2% to 10.3%) hold up with the promotion. Young players who can control the strike zone against advanced pitching have a great chance of maintaining that production as they move up, and Paredes could be in the major leagues next season at just 20 years old.
SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers, Age 20)
13 HR, .327/.396/.521, 12 SB, 76/45 K/BB, 148 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 88 at High A, 9 at AA
High school bats, especially from the north (Lux is from Wisconsin), often take some time to develop, and Lux really broke out in 2018. After a so-so season at Class A Great Lakes in 2017, where he slashed an uninspiring .244/.331/.362 with a respectable 88/56 strikeout to walk ratio as a teenager, 2018 has been a different story. The bat developed at High A Rancho Cucamonga, where he slashed .324/.396/.520 with 11 home runs and a 68/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, earning a recent promotion to AA Tulsa. The jump from Rancho Cucamonga to Tulsa is a big one, as Rancho Cucamonga is in the extremely hitter-friendly California League and Tulsa skews a bit more pitcher friendly, on top of the large jump from one level to the next. However, through nine games, he is showing no signs of slowing down, slashing .359/.390/.538 with a pair of home runs and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio. In all, Lux is a 20 year old bat that took his prospect status from "project with a high ceiling" to "AA hitter who is fulfilling his promise and is not too far from a major league opportunity." Throw in his 12 stolen bases this year and his ability to play shortstop, and the Dodgers have something special.
Others: Taylor Ward (Angels), Touki Toussaint (Braves), William Contreras (Braves), Bruce Zimmerman (Orioles), Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
Monday, July 31, 2017
Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to Cubs to Kick Off Deadline Day
Cubs Get: Justin Wilson (3-4, 2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 13 SV, 55/16 K/BB, Age 29)
Alex Avila (11 HR, 32 RBI, .274 AVG, 0 SB, 133 wRC+, Age 30)
Tigers Get: Jeimer Candelario (1 HR, 3 RBI, .152 AVG, 0 SB, 36 wRC+, Age 23)
Isaac Paredes (7 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 2 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 18)
A player to be named later or cash
The Cubs have underperformed this season, but they've been hot lately, and at 56-48, they're back in first place in the NL Central. On paper, they're still extremely strong (think Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Heyward on offense, Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks in rotation), but the bullpen has been more good than excellent for them this year. Wade Davis has been good as closer (2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Pedro Strop (2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and Koji Uehara (3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) have been good behind him, but Brian Duensing (2.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been their only consistent lefty in the bullpen. So, they acquired lefty Justin Wilson, who is in the middle of a career year in Detroit (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). He's struck out 35% of the batters he's faced this year, including 43.2% of lefties, and he'll be a perfect fit for the Cubbies as they look to repeat as World Series Champions. Wilson isn't a rental, either, as he has one more year of arbitration and is therefore controllable through 2018. For his career, he has quietly been very good, going 21-14 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 313 and walking 114 in 298.1 innings. Also going to Chicago is catcher Alex Avila, who, aside from 57 games with the White Sox in 2016, has played his entire career for the Tigers. Mainly a backup catcher after his huge 2011 season (.295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 140 wRC+), he has had a big bounce back season in 2017, slashing .274/.394/.475 with 17 home runs and a 133 wRC+, accumulating 1.9 fWAR when you add in his solid defense. The Cubs' current catcher, Willson Contreras, has been good this year (.269/.340/.485, 16 HR), but Victor Caratini will need to go back to the minors to make room for Avila. Avila is a free agent after the season, and he has 84 career home runs to go along with a .243/.350/.402 slash line.
The main return to Detroit for its ninth inning battery is Jeimer Candelario, the top Cubs prospect left after the graduations of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez, as well as the trades of Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. Candelario, a third baseman, has hit well at AAA Iowa this year (.266/.361/.507, 12 HR), but he's blocked by you know who in Chicago and never really had a clear future in Chicago. He'll be a better fit in Detroit, though he'll still be blocked by Nick Castellanos. He's a very polished hitter who could put up above average numbers at the major league level in the near future, and at worst he should be a solid bench bat in Detroit starting this season. If it weren't for Kris Bryant, he'd be a major leaguer right now, and hopefully a change of scenery will do the 23 year old good. He has played in 16 major league games over the past two seasons, but without regular playing time, he hasn't been able to find his groove, slashing just .136/.240/.250 with one home run in 50 plate appearances. Isaac Paredes, who just turned 18 in February, is in only his second pro season, but he has played well at Class A South Bend against older competition this year. Through 92 games, he is slashing .264/.343/.401 with seven home runs and 25 doubles, and while those might not be eye-popping numbers, they're very credible for a player of his age and experience. A shortstop right now, he may have to move to second base or third base in the future, but being able to stick in the infield takes pressure off his bat. He's a long way off, but he could be a productive infielder in Detroit next to Candelario in a few years.
Alex Avila (11 HR, 32 RBI, .274 AVG, 0 SB, 133 wRC+, Age 30)
Tigers Get: Jeimer Candelario (1 HR, 3 RBI, .152 AVG, 0 SB, 36 wRC+, Age 23)
Isaac Paredes (7 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 2 SB, 112 wRC+ at Class A, Age 18)
A player to be named later or cash
The Cubs have underperformed this season, but they've been hot lately, and at 56-48, they're back in first place in the NL Central. On paper, they're still extremely strong (think Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Heyward on offense, Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks in rotation), but the bullpen has been more good than excellent for them this year. Wade Davis has been good as closer (2.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), and Pedro Strop (2.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.51 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), and Koji Uehara (3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) have been good behind him, but Brian Duensing (2.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) has been their only consistent lefty in the bullpen. So, they acquired lefty Justin Wilson, who is in the middle of a career year in Detroit (2.68 ERA, 0.94 WHIP). He's struck out 35% of the batters he's faced this year, including 43.2% of lefties, and he'll be a perfect fit for the Cubbies as they look to repeat as World Series Champions. Wilson isn't a rental, either, as he has one more year of arbitration and is therefore controllable through 2018. For his career, he has quietly been very good, going 21-14 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 313 and walking 114 in 298.1 innings. Also going to Chicago is catcher Alex Avila, who, aside from 57 games with the White Sox in 2016, has played his entire career for the Tigers. Mainly a backup catcher after his huge 2011 season (.295/.389/.506, 19 HR, 140 wRC+), he has had a big bounce back season in 2017, slashing .274/.394/.475 with 17 home runs and a 133 wRC+, accumulating 1.9 fWAR when you add in his solid defense. The Cubs' current catcher, Willson Contreras, has been good this year (.269/.340/.485, 16 HR), but Victor Caratini will need to go back to the minors to make room for Avila. Avila is a free agent after the season, and he has 84 career home runs to go along with a .243/.350/.402 slash line.
The main return to Detroit for its ninth inning battery is Jeimer Candelario, the top Cubs prospect left after the graduations of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez, as well as the trades of Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Eloy Jimenez, and Dylan Cease. Candelario, a third baseman, has hit well at AAA Iowa this year (.266/.361/.507, 12 HR), but he's blocked by you know who in Chicago and never really had a clear future in Chicago. He'll be a better fit in Detroit, though he'll still be blocked by Nick Castellanos. He's a very polished hitter who could put up above average numbers at the major league level in the near future, and at worst he should be a solid bench bat in Detroit starting this season. If it weren't for Kris Bryant, he'd be a major leaguer right now, and hopefully a change of scenery will do the 23 year old good. He has played in 16 major league games over the past two seasons, but without regular playing time, he hasn't been able to find his groove, slashing just .136/.240/.250 with one home run in 50 plate appearances. Isaac Paredes, who just turned 18 in February, is in only his second pro season, but he has played well at Class A South Bend against older competition this year. Through 92 games, he is slashing .264/.343/.401 with seven home runs and 25 doubles, and while those might not be eye-popping numbers, they're very credible for a player of his age and experience. A shortstop right now, he may have to move to second base or third base in the future, but being able to stick in the infield takes pressure off his bat. He's a long way off, but he could be a productive infielder in Detroit next to Candelario in a few years.
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