1-18: RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke
CBA-33: RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami
3-90: LHP Liam Norris, Green Hope HS (NC)
4-119: 3B AJ Vukovich, East Troy HS (WI)
5-149: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Bellarmine
The Diamondbacks went for ceiling in this year's draft class, because after first rounder Bryce Jarvis, none of these guys are safe bets. Well, competitive balance pick Slade Cecconi is safe bet to be at least moderately valuable, but he has a fairly wide variance in his potential outcomes and both third rounder Liam Norris and fourth rounder AJ Vukovich are extreme boom/bust types. A year after they added a ton of depth to the system with a boatload of early picks, they could afford to go boom/bust in this draft, and each guy shows a pretty enticing ceiling. Jarvis, of course, is the most famous name after an immaculate redshirt junior season, and he's easily the best right-now product in this class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-18: RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke (my rank: 35)
The Diamondbacks decided to save money on their first pick, but they'll still get easy first round value. Bryce Jarvis might have had the best 2020 season in the country, and that's no exaggeration. The Nashville-area native was very effective over his first two seasons at Duke (10-3, 3.28 ERA, 161/59 K/BB in 123.1 IP), but he knew he could do better, so he turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019 to return for his junior year. It turned out he was right, because after four starts, Jarvis had a 0.67 ERA, a 0.48 WHIP, and a 40/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. That included a 15 strikeout perfect game against Cornell, a near no-hitter against Florida State, and a total of just two earned runs on 15 baserunners combined over his four starts. The difference was in the stuff – after sitting around 90 with his fastball in 2019, Jarvis was comfortably in the mid 90's in 2020 and held that velocity throughout his starts. What were previously decent offspeeds looked like plus pitches in the shortened season, as he can miss bats with his slider, curve, and changeup. The slider is a hard bender with serious bite down in the zone, the newer curve is a bit softer and shows good depth, and the changeup might be the best out of all of them with serious fade to the arm side. There is some concern as to whether he can remain a starter, as he's pretty skinny at 6'2" and pitches with effort, but he repeats his delivery very consistently, throws strikes with all four pitches, and held his velocity deep into games in 2020. He's a year older than the typical college junior and will turn 23 in December, but he should move quickly through the minors and could be a mid rotation starter in the relatively near future. He signed for $2.65 million, which was about $830,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-33: RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (my rank: 34)
15 picks later, the D-Backs grabbed another ACC righty, though Slade Cecconi is a full year and a half younger than Jarvis. A well-known prospect coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, he got hurt during his senior year and decided to head to Miami instead, where he would be draft-eligible as a sophomore due to his early birthday. The results have been more solid than great, with a 4.09 ERA and a 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings between his two seasons, but he's shown enough flashes of greatness that scouts are confident in his upside. Cecconi has a great pitcher's frame at 6'4" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a plus slider and a developing cutter and changeup that he has good feel for. He's usually a good strike thrower, but the problem has been consistency, as some days his velocity dips a little, others its his secondary stuff that doesn't look quite as sharp, and still others where his command can be shaky. The Diamondbacks scouts have obviously looked at him and think he's very, very close to taking a big step forward, because with all three working at their best, he looks like a legitimate impact big league starter. While he's very old for a college sophomore, having turned 21 in June, he'd be on the younger side if he were a junior and is therefore younger than most of the college pitchers in this draft. All together, it's a very nice profile that could take a big step forward very soon. Slot value is $2.20 million, but I'd imagine it might take a little bit more to keep him from heading back to Coral Gables.
Pre-draft profile here.
3-90: LHP Liam Norris, Green Hope HS, NC (my rank: 153)
For the second straight season, the Diamondbacks spent an early pick on a North Carolina prep lefty with projection to dream on. A year after grabbing Blake Walston out of high school in Wilmington with the 26th overall pick, the Snakes went up to the Raleigh suburbs to divert Liam Norris away from a UNC commitment. Norris, like Walston, will be a project. He's been very up and down throughout his closely-watched high school career, but this spring was very much an "up" for him and Arizona is bought in. At his best, Norris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch as high as 96, putting steep downhill plane on the ball that makes it tough to square up. He also shows a big 12-6 curve with tremendous depth, and his more horizontal slider routinely misses bats as well. The changeup is in its rudimentary stages at this point, but that is very forgivable given his age and two breaking balls. What's not as forgivable, though, is his command. Even when he's on, he struggles immensely to find the zone, to the point where he even has trouble getting plain old high school hitters to chase his explosive stuff. Norris struggles to repeat his arm slot and release point, and part of that might owe to his 6'4" size and the fact that he just hasn't quite grown into it yet. The Diamondbacks certainly hope that's the case and that he'll get more coordinated as he gets older, though his August birthday makes him relatively old for a high school senior (and nearly as old as Walston, whose June birthday made him young for last year's draft). Still, as long as his stuff doesn't regress back towards what it looked like over the summer (upper 80's FB, softer secondary stuff), there is a ton of ceiling here. Slot value is $657,600 and I'm not sure what it will take to keep him away from UNC, but the Diamondbacks saved enough with Jarvis that there should be some left over here to go over slot.
4-119: 3B AJ Vukovich, East Troy HS, WI (my rank: 131)
Wisconsin isn't the biggest baseball state in the country, but the Diamondbacks are poised to add a second small town Wisconsinite to the system. Daulton Varsho of Chili (pop. 226) is off to a great start to his pro career, while East Troy (pop. 4,281) native AJ Vukovich is coming in hot from about half an hour southwest of Milwaukee. Vukovich shows tremendous power from the right side, using his 6'5" frame and long, loose arms to create lots of whip and leverage with which to drive the ball deep. However, his hit tool needs significant work, as he swing and missed often on the showcase circuit and it limited his overall production. Even though he's relatively old for the class with a July birthday, the fact that he comes from a cold weather state buys the bat some slack and gives the Diamondbacks hope they can iron him out. Defensively, he shows a very strong arm over at third base, but his overall range is so-so and in an age where shifting has become commonplace, it might be difficult for him to stick there. There is probably a better chance he ends up in right field, left field, or at first base, and if it's one of the latter two, there will be a lot of pressure on his bat. The upside here is 30+ home runs a year,though the risk is very high. Slot value is $483,000, but I imagine it will take significantly more to keep him from heading to Louisville.
5-149: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Bellarmine (unranked)
Brandon Pfaadt's high school and college were less than four miles apart in eastern Louisville, but he'll head across the country now as the Diamondbacks' fifth round selection. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Bellarmine, dropping his ERA from 6.04 as a freshman to 4.03 as a sophomore before posting a breakout 2020 season: 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 27/4 K/BB in 26 innings. Given that Bellarmine is a Division II school, it wasn't the toughest competition, but he also has a very strong Cape Cod League summer under his belt as well: 2.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 37/11 K/BB in 36.2 innings. At his best, Pfaadt runs his fastball into the mid 90's from a very loose, whippy arm, and it's tough to square up because it seems to jump out of his hand. He has feel to spin a good curveball as well, though he's relatively new to starting and there isn't much of a changeup. The key for Pfaadt is consistency, as he hasn't proven he can hold his velocity deep into starts and the breaking ball can regress to below average at times. Pfaadt throws plenty of strikes from a durable 6'3" frame, though his delivery has a lot of moving parts that create deception but might be tougher to repeat deep into games. The Diamondbacks might try to take it slow and develop him as a starter, because he has the talent to do so, but his arm action and fastball/curveball combination could fit really well in a bullpen, where he's pitched for most of his career. Slot value is $360,800, though I imagine he takes a bit of a discount.
Undrafted: OF Danny Oriente, Louisville (unranked)
Brandon Pfaadt isn't the only player the Diamondbacks plucked out of college in Louisville, but Danny Oriente is the only undrafted free agent they've signed so far. Oriente has been a consistent performer in the middle of some stacked Louisville lineups, slashing .324/.400/.420 with three home runs and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 career games. The Chicago-area native doesn't have the world's highest ceiling, instead showing a good feel for the game and broad set of average skills. He's hit over power at the plate, using a simple swing, an all-fields approach, and plus bat to ball skills to make consistent line drive contact. He's also not the fastest guy in the world, but he gets the job done in the outfield. It's a fourth or fifth outfielder profile overall.
Showing posts with label Slade Cecconi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Slade Cecconi. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?
As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
Friday, April 24, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Slade Cecconi
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/24/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30/7 K/BB in 21.1 innings
A potential day one draft pick coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, Cecconi fell due to injuries and signability and ended up at Miami, where he posted a 4.16 ERA and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings as a freshman. With a June birthday that makes him very old for his class, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore, and he put together four solid starts to come away with a 3.80 ERA and a 30/7 strikeout to walk ratio across 21.1 innings. Cecconi has always been about projection, and while he hasn't quite put it together, he could be just a few adjustments away from taking a huge leap forward.
Cecconi has an ideal pitcher's body at 6'4", and he uses it to generate explosive stuff. His fastball velocity varies, but it can be anywhere from the low 90's to the upper 90's, with the belief that pro coaching can help him stay closer to the upper end of that velocity band. His slider is his best secondary pitch, buckling knees at its best with its hard downward movement. He also throws a cutter and a changeup, though not as much as his fastball and slider, but both of those pitches have their moments and could be weapons in pro ball. He does a good job of throwing strikes, but his overall command needs significant work and he has been more hittable than perhaps his stuff dictates he should have been so far.
There's really interesting upside here. Cecconi comes with that college pedigree and while his numbers don't jump off the page, a career 4.09 ERA and 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio across 101.1 innings against Miami's ACC schedule ain't half bad for a kid who won't turn 21 until June. His stuff can be great, and it seems like he's just a tweak or two away from taking a big step forward. At the same time, he's never quite put it together, rarely having his velocity, his secondaries, and his command all working in one start. As someone who has seemed like he was ~this close~ for years now, going back to his junior year of high school, it's not the best look to seem to have been stalled for that long.
That said, the good tends to outweigh the bad here, and Cecconi has #2 starter upside. If he never quite puts it together, his fastball/slider combination could also be lethal in the bullpen, where it's easier to see him maintaining the upper end of his velocity band. That gives him a higher floor than many of the other high upside arms in this class. Right now, he's pushed himself into the first round conversation and with a little bit of helium behind his name, it seems more likely than not that he'll come off the board somewhere in the 20's. Additionally, he grades out very well on the all important "name tool," with Slade Cecconi perhaps being the best name among all day one college arms this year (with Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy, and Cade Cavalli receiving honorable mentions).
2020 start vs Florida (home plate view)
2020 start vs Rutgers (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/24/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 30/7 K/BB in 21.1 innings
A potential day one draft pick coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, Cecconi fell due to injuries and signability and ended up at Miami, where he posted a 4.16 ERA and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings as a freshman. With a June birthday that makes him very old for his class, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore, and he put together four solid starts to come away with a 3.80 ERA and a 30/7 strikeout to walk ratio across 21.1 innings. Cecconi has always been about projection, and while he hasn't quite put it together, he could be just a few adjustments away from taking a huge leap forward.
Cecconi has an ideal pitcher's body at 6'4", and he uses it to generate explosive stuff. His fastball velocity varies, but it can be anywhere from the low 90's to the upper 90's, with the belief that pro coaching can help him stay closer to the upper end of that velocity band. His slider is his best secondary pitch, buckling knees at its best with its hard downward movement. He also throws a cutter and a changeup, though not as much as his fastball and slider, but both of those pitches have their moments and could be weapons in pro ball. He does a good job of throwing strikes, but his overall command needs significant work and he has been more hittable than perhaps his stuff dictates he should have been so far.
There's really interesting upside here. Cecconi comes with that college pedigree and while his numbers don't jump off the page, a career 4.09 ERA and 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio across 101.1 innings against Miami's ACC schedule ain't half bad for a kid who won't turn 21 until June. His stuff can be great, and it seems like he's just a tweak or two away from taking a big step forward. At the same time, he's never quite put it together, rarely having his velocity, his secondaries, and his command all working in one start. As someone who has seemed like he was ~this close~ for years now, going back to his junior year of high school, it's not the best look to seem to have been stalled for that long.
That said, the good tends to outweigh the bad here, and Cecconi has #2 starter upside. If he never quite puts it together, his fastball/slider combination could also be lethal in the bullpen, where it's easier to see him maintaining the upper end of his velocity band. That gives him a higher floor than many of the other high upside arms in this class. Right now, he's pushed himself into the first round conversation and with a little bit of helium behind his name, it seems more likely than not that he'll come off the board somewhere in the 20's. Additionally, he grades out very well on the all important "name tool," with Slade Cecconi perhaps being the best name among all day one college arms this year (with Emerson Hancock, Asa Lacy, and Cade Cavalli receiving honorable mentions).
2020 start vs Florida (home plate view)
2020 start vs Rutgers (CF view)
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