Showing posts with label Bryce Harper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bryce Harper. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

2021 Dugout Edge MVP's and Cy Young's

AL MVP

Winner: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Angels.
46 HR, .257/.372/.592, 26 SB, 152 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR in 158 games.
9-2, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 156/44 K/BB, 3.0 fWAR, in 130.1 innings.

Runner-up: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays.
48 HR, .311/.401/.601, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR in 161 games.

Honorable mention: SS Marcus Semien, Blue Jays.
45 HR, .265/.334/.538, 15 SB, 131 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games.

To me, this wasn't particularly close. Yeah, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a great season at the plate, but it wasn't an outlier even just looking at the past few seasons. His AL-leading 166 wRC+ was four points behind Bryce Harper for the MLB lead, and it would have placed fourth in 2019 behind Mike Trout (177), Christian Yelich (174), and Alex Bregman (167). Combine Guerrero's 166 wRC+ with little defensive value and you still have a very good, MVP-caliber season, but I don't think we can pretend it was some historical run that Shohei Ohtani is unjustly overshadowing because of some novelty. "If he's always going to pitch and hit, should we just give it to him every year?" If he does it at this level, and nobody steps up with a better season, then yes. It's not just "some novelty" and here's why.

Ohtani owns this award through and through. Critics will point to his .257 batting average and 189 strikeouts, but that's about it and it's a terrible argument. The guy walked in nearly 15% of his plate appearances to turn that unremarkable .257 average into a very strong .372 on-base percentage, while his 46 bombs (just one less than Vladdy) meant that he slugged nearly .600 on the year. His 152 wRC+ was actually the second highest in the American League behind only Guerrero and directly ahead of Aaron Judge (149), Matt Olson (147), and Kyle Tucker (146). And he stole 26 bases. Are you going to tell me that's not a great season? On its own, it's definitely not enough to unseat Guerrero as the best hitter in the American League, but it's reasonably close, isn't it? Throw in the fact that he pitched to a 3.18 ERA and struck out nearly 30% of his opponents while making 23 starts, and it more than makes up for the not-that-big gap in offensive production.

Other critics might point to the Blue Jays finishing fourteen games ahead of the Angels in the standings, but Guerrero was teaming with a star-studded cast including Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Robbie Ray, etc., etc., while Ohtani had, like, a month and a half of Mike Trout? I mean I'm sorry he couldn't will an Angels team that didn't have *a single other pitcher* complete one hundred innings to the playoffs, but he did more than anybody else could have. I don't use WPA (win probability added) when choosing my MVP's, but for those that value tangible contributions to winning real baseball games, it's about as accurate a stat as you can get. And Ohtani led all MLB hitters with 5.36, not including his pitching. That's right, just his bat did more to put the Angels in a position to win real baseball games than any other MLB hitter, including Guerrero.

If I sound negative towards Guerrero, I don't mean to. I absolutely believe Ohtani is the AL MVP, but Guerrero had a damn fine season in his own right. He and Bryce Harper were the only two hitters to reach the .300/.400/.600 threshold, and going back to the last full season in 2019, it was only Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. Not only was he the best hitter in the American League by a comfortable margin, he did it while playing in all but one game and striking out in just over 15% of his plate appearances, something that you just don't often see from power hitters. In fact, he was one of just two American League hitters (along with Jose Ramirez) to hit at least 32 home runs while striking out less than 16% of the time, and he hit 48. I also want to give some love to Marcus Semien, who blasted 45 home runs while playing standout defense at shortstop and appearing in every single game. Jose Ramirez was also considered here.

NL MVP

Winner: OF Bryce Harper, Phillies.
35 HR, .309/.429/.615, 13 SB, 170 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games.

Runner-up: SS Trea Turner, Nationals/Dodgers.
28 HR, .328/.375/.536, 32 SB, 142 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR in 148 games.

Honorable mention: OF Juan Soto, Nationals.
29 HR, .313/.465/.534, 9 SB, 163 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 151 games.

I actually think Trea Turner provided the most value of any player in the NL, and not just because he led in fWAR, but I can't bring myself to give my MVP to a player who split his season between two teams. So it comes down to Bryce Harper and Juan Soto, who had extremely similar seasons, with Harper showing a little more pop and Soto getting on base a touch more and playing ten more games. They also both started (relatively) slowly before heating up in the second half. Harper hit .282/.378/.520 in the first half before turning it around to a .338/.476/.713 line, while Soto was even more extreme at .283/.407/.445 and .348/.525/.639. Additionally, both played moderately decent defense, with Soto winning in OAA (5 to -5) and DRS (3 to -6) and Harper getting the edge by UZR (1.8 to 1.3).

Beyond WAR, I value longevity and consistency highly, and Soto played more while Harper was more consistent. Ultimately, I had to give it to Harper because in the first half of the season, Soto just didn't hit for power. He had just eight extra base hits in his first forty games, so even his second half power surge meant he finished with just 51 to Harper's 78. Soto got on base a lot more, but to be fair, pitchers just weren't throwing to him in the second half with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Yan Gomes gone from the lineup, and he saw the seventh fewest strikes of any qualified NL hitter in the second half (and all the names above him were extremely aggressive, chase-happy hitters). Absolutely huge credit to him for taking his walks and still doing massive amounts of damage on the balls he did get in the zone, but I still see more value in Harper's second half power surge than Soto's willingness to take his walks.

As a Nationals fan, I don't mean to downplay Juan Soto or his second half discipline – I think he's the single most impressive hitter I've seen since prime Albert Pujols, when I was too young to meaningfully analyze what I was watching beyond emulating his batting stance in backyard wiffleball games. Soto is incredible, and he had an incredible season that's borderline MVP-worthy. And I wouldn't fight you too hard if you picked him over Harper. The consistency and power surge just won me over a tiny bit more than the discipline, while the slow start in terms of Soto's power sits with me a little too much.

Now back to Trea Turner. He led all MLB position players with 6.8 fWAR, but his value goes beyond that. 28 home runs is good, as is a .375 on-base percentage, especially when it's driven by extra base hits and not walks. He went 32/37 in stolen base attempts and played great defense at two positions. It's the most well-rounded profile out there. But I think there's a certain unquantifiable value add that comes with true game-breaking speed like Turner's. When he's on base, it becomes a different baseball game altogether, with pitchers focusing as much on him as they are on the batter. And they have to, because if they forget about him, he'll be on the next base. He wasn't quite the hitter that Juan Soto or Bryce Harper was, but he was on a similar level and added much more defensive value plus that speed. Not just useable speed, but game changing speed. I guess that's where the subjectivity comes in, because he's the MVP if it weren't for the split season.

AL Cy Young

Winner: LHP Robbie Ray, Blue Jays.
13-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 248/52 K/BB in 193.1 innings.

Runner-up: RHP Gerrit Cole, Yankees.
16-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 243/41 K/BB in 181.1 innings.

Honorable mention: LHP Carlos Rodon, White Sox.
13-5, 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 185/36 K/BB in 132.2 innings.

This one was fairly easy for me. Robbie Ray led the AL in innings, ERA, RA9, WHIP, strikeouts, and starts (tied), and he did so in a division with four ninety win teams while traveling around without a home park. Those are traditional stats to value, but I value them. I understand and agree with managers' decisions to shorten the leashes on their starting pitchers because that's what wins ballgames, but that doesn't mean I devalue a pitcher who can pitch deep into games and continue to be effective like Ray. Really, the only blemish was his 33 home runs allowed, fourth most in the AL and enough to inflate his FIP to 3.69, but good pitchers give up dingers. He limited baserunners, he limited runs both earned and unearned, he did it over a large body of work, and he didn't have a home stadium for much of the season. That's a job well done to me.

Gerrit Cole was a pretty easy runner-up for me, too. He was second in strikeouts, WHIP, and FIP, third in ERA and RA9, and fifth in innings. He also did so in a hitter-friendly park and like Ray pitched in that gauntlet AL East. Thirteen of his thirty starts came against the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, making for very consistent tough matchups week in and week out. Cole was gutsy and always a competitor, going at least five innings in 28/30 starts, matching Ray's mark of 28/32 in two fewer starts.

For the last spot, I went between Carlos Rodon and Nathan Eovaldi, who each had very unique pitches for this spot. Rodon's 132.2 innings weren't the traditional big body of work I like to see, but batter for batter, he was the most dominant starting pitcher in the majors. If we dropped the innings qualification to 130, he would have led in ERA, RA9, FIP, and strikeout rate. It's too bad he couldn't tack on perhaps ten to twenty more innings or I might have considered him for the #1 spot. Eovaldi, meanwhile, did not have the traditional stats with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, but he was playing in a hitters' park in a strong division with a poor defense behind him, so a 3.75 ERA in that context becomes a lot more impressive. His .327 opponents' BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was the worst in the league, again pointing to a defense that was of no help to him, while his 195/35 strikeout to walk ratio was a strong note. Lance Lynn also earned consideration.

NL Cy Young

Winner: RHP Corbin Burnes, Brewers.
11-5, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 234/34 K/BB in 167 innings.

Runner-up: RHP Max Scherzer, Nationals/Dodgers.
15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 236/36 K/BB in 179.1 innings.

Honorable mention: RHP Zack Wheeler, Phillies.
14-10, 2.78 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 247/46 K/BB in 213.1 innings.

This was the toughest one to decide, and I actually wouldn't argue putting these three in any order. I typically value large numbers of innings, which would put Zack Wheeler ahead, but Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer were significantly better on a batter-for-batter basis, so much so that I think they eclipse Wheeler – barely. Burnes was the best starting pitcher in MLB on that batter-for-batter basis, absolutely dominating the three true outcomes to turn up a ridiculous 1.63 FIP, the second best mark of the entire live ball era behind only Pedro Martinez's 1.39 in 1999. You can forgive the low innings total when your success has to be categorized on an all-time scale. The Brewers had a very strong defense this year, but he still managed a relatively high .309 BABIP that indicated bad luck. In addition to FIP, he led the NL in ERA, RA9, fWAR, and strikeout rate. If he had thrown perhaps ten more innings, then I don't think this race would have been close at all.

I originally leaned towards Wheeler over Scherzer given his larger body of work, which I value, but then I checked what exactly Wheeler had on Scherzer. In order to get from Scherzer's line to Wheeler's, you'd have to post a 3.97 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 innings. I wouldn't necessarily have been looking for Cy Young-caliber numbers in those 34 innings to put Wheeler ahead, but I would have at least wanted #3 starter-caliber performance and that's more like a #5. Throw in that Wheeler pitched his entire season in the weak NL East while Scherzer's final seven starts were a gauntlet (Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Reds, Rockies at Coors, Padres), and that seals Scherzer's edge for second place (though he only had to face one Giants batter all season, LaMonte Wade, when he was still a National). In Scherzer's "smaller sample" 179.1 innings, he was virtually untouchable, leading the NL in WHIP while finishing second in strikeouts and ERA, third in RA9, and fourth in FIP.

Zack Wheeler had a very strong season, one that was more than deserving of consideration. I really value that he led the NL in innings pitched and strikeouts while also finishing fifth in ERA and WHIP. He went at least five innings in 30/32 starts and at least six in 27/32, and he allowed four or fewer earned runs in 30/32. He also never struck out fewer than four batters and never walked more than he struck out. Wheeler was as consistent a workhorse as they come, and he did so without the traditional pitch to contact method. Behind this trio was Walker Buehler, who earned some consideration but was safely behind.

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Top Free Agents for 2018-2019: Catchers and Outfielders

Catchers

1. Yasmani Grandal (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 24 HR, .241/.349/.466, 2 SB, 125 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR in 140 games
Grandal will be a very hot commodity on the free agent market this year, just since good catchers are so hard to come by. In 2018, only three catchers accumulated more than 3.0 fWAR: J.T. Realmuto (4.8), Grandal (3.6), and Francisco Cervelli (3.3). Most teams have to choose between a catcher with some pop who is iffy with the glove, or a good fielder that they have to bury at the bottom of their lineup. However, Grandal can both hit and field well, and in a scarce market, that is valuable. At the plate, he is on a run of three straight 20 homer seasons, and he has always been considered one of the better pitch framers in the game. He's not quite a middle of the order anchor, but among catchers who can field, not many are better than him at the plate. Set to play all of 2019 at 30 years old, he's not too old as far as catchers go either. For his career, the former Miami Hurricane has 113 home runs, a .240/.341/.441 slash line, and 15.2 fWAR over 726 games since 2012.

2. Wilson Ramos (2019 Age: 31-32)
2018 Stats: 15 HR, .306/.358/.487, 0 SB, 131 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR in 111 games
Ramos is a better catcher than he gets credit for. From 2010-2015, he was essentially a league average hitter, slashing .258/.301/.411 for a respectable 92 wRC+. However, since having Lasik eye surgery in 2016, he's at .298/.343/.483 with a 120 wRC+, the latter of which is second among all catchers behind only Gary Sanchez's 124. At this point, it is safe to say that the Lasik has had a profound effect on his hitting and that pre-2016 Wilson is not relevant as a factor for predicting his future performance, leaving us with three seasons as one of the best hitting catchers in baseball. On top of it, he has always been well regarded as a defender. The only downside to Ramos, and it's a big one, is health. He has never played more than 131 games in a season he has only managed more than 88 games four times since debuting in 2010. His signing team will have to grapple with that, especially knowing he turns 32 next August and presumably isn't getting any less breakable. However, if he stays healthy, I can see his signing team getting a great bargain. For his career, the Venezuelan catcher has 109 home runs, a .273/.317/.439 line, and 13.2 fWAR over 760 games since 2010.

3. Kurt Suzuki (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 12 HR, .271/.332/.444, 0 SB, 108 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR in 105 games
Overall, I think the #3 spot is somewhat ambiguous, with the third best catcher available changing depending on what you're looking for. For some teams, Matt Wieters or Martin Maldonado could be the #3 option. I'm going to go with Kurt Suzuki here though because for someone who turned 35 just after the end of the regular season, he's still a good player. His .271/.332/.444 slash line was very respectable all around, and with good defense, he's an above-average all around catcher. Whether that success continues into 2019, his age 35 season, or beyond is anybody's guess, but my guess is that any 2019 regression does not pull him too far below average, and he should still be a serviceable starting catcher if he's healthy. Even with more regression than expected, he could still be a good backup and with his twelve years of experience in the majors, he's a valuable veteran. For his career, the Cal State Fullerton alumnus has 114 home runs, a .258/.315/.387 slash line, and 18.9 fWAR over 1394 games since 2007.

Other Notable
Matt Wieters (8 HR, .238/.330/.374, 0 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR)
Martin Maldonado (9 HR, .225/.276/.351, 0 SB, 74 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR)
Jonathan Lucroy (4 HR, .241/.291/.325, 0 SB, 70 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR)
Brian McCann (7 HR, .212/.301/.339, 0 SB, 82 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Nick Hundley (10 HR, .241/.298/.408, 2 SB, 91 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR)

Outfielders

1. Bryce Harper (2019 Age: 26)
2018 Stats: 34 HR, .249/.393/.496, 13 SB, 135 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR in 159 games
Bryce Harper represents one of the best free agents we have ever seen, just turning 26 at the beginning of the offseason while bringing an NL MVP award and six All Star selections to the table. The age is especially nice because unlike with most free agents, Harper's signing team will have him for much of his prime, as he won't even turn 30 until after year four. While much has been said about his low batting averages (.243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018), batting average is the last thing you should be concerned about with Harper. His on-base percentages in those two seasons were .373 and .393, respectively, due to an exceptional 14.8% career walk rate, making him one of the game's better players when it comes to getting on base, and that's completely disregarding power. Harper has hit at least 24 home runs in each of the past four seasons, including 42 in his MVP 2015 season and 34 this past year. All of that will amount to a contract in the $400 million range, possibly higher, as a team will look to sign Harper for the remainder of his career. For his career, the Las Vegas native has 184 home runs, a .279/.388/.512 slash line, and 30.7 fWAR over 927 games since 2012.

2. Michael Brantley (2019 Age: 31-32)
2018 Stats: 17 HR, .309/.364/.468, 12 SB, 124 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR in 143 games
I think a lot of people forgot about Brantley because he played just 101 games between the 2016 and 2017 seasons, but he bounced back nicely with a .309/.364/.468 line and 3.5 fWAR in a full season this year. When he's healthy, Brantley is actually a pretty consistent two to four win player who gets on base, hits for some power, and unlike most players these days, rarely strikes out. He's not much help on defense, but his consistent, productive bat would fit in any lineup and could help any contender. For his career, the outfielder from Florida's Treasure Coast has 87 home runs, a .295/.351/.430 slash line, 118 stolen bases, and 19.5 fWAR over 1051 games since 2009.

3. Andrew McCutchen (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 20 HR, .255/.368/.424, 14 SB, 120 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 155 games
McCutchen isn't the consistent six to eight win player he used to be, with his last three years looking more pedestrian. While I think this is now the true McCutchen, a consistent two to four win player is still a good find on the market and he should get a considerable amount of money. He has hit at least 20 home runs and 25 doubles in each of the past eight seasons, and only in 2016 did he fail to steal more than ten bases. While his batting averages have dropped from the great to decent range, he has kept a great walk rate (12.0% career), which makes him overall a pretty good power/on-base threat even at this stage in his career. His defense has taken a hit since his prime, but he's not necessarily a liability at this point as long as you don't play him in center field. For his career, the small town Florida native has 223 home runs, a .287/.378/.481 line, 185 stolen bases, and 48.6 fWAR over 1501 games since 2009.

4. A.J. Pollock (2019 Age: 31)
2018 Stats: 21 HR, .257/.316/.484, 13 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 113 games
Pollock might have slashed .315/.367/.498 with 39 stolen bases and 6.8 fWAR in 2015, but he's more realistically a two to three win player who can contribute a little bit of everything. He's got some power, good for 15-20 home runs per season, some on-base ability, some speed, and pretty good defense. Turning 31 in December, he should be able to maintain that all-around ability at its current level for at least a few more years and should land a nice contract. For his career, the Notre Dame product has 74 home runs, a .281/.338/.467 slash line, 103 stolen bases, and 17.2 fWAR over 637 games.

5. Marwin Gonzalez (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 16 HR, .247/.324/.409, 2 SB, 104 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 145 games
Marwin Gonzalez is much more valuable than the numbers say. As a guy who has seen significant time at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and left field throughout his career, he can fit on literally any roster, but unlike other recent super-utility men (Andrew Romine, Alfredo Amezaga), he can swing the bat. In four of the past five seasons, he has produced a wRC+ above 100 (league average), including a 144 mark in 2017 that stemmed from a .303/.377/.530 line and 23 home runs. The numbers were down a bit this year at .247/.324/.409 with 16 home runs, but there is not a team out there that shouldn't be at least a little bit interested in a guy who can play almost anywhere you want and still hit enough to remain relevant in the lineup. For his career, the Venezuelan has 76 home runs, a .264/.318/.419 slash line, and 7.8 fWAR over 795 games since 2012.

6. Adam Jones (2019 Age: 33-34)
2018 Stats: 15 HR, .281/.313/.419, 7 SB, 98 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR in 145 games
For baseball's sake, I hope Jones stays in Baltimore, having become synonymous with the Orioles over the past eleven years. However, for now he's a free agent and will test the open market. Turning 34 in August, he's not the 4-5 win player he once was, with both his glove and bat regressing to about average. Still, he's good for some all around contribution, hitting for some power while getting on base enough to justify keeping him in the lineup as long as he stays out of center field. He has been extremely durable, having avoided the disabled list entirely since his 2009 season was cut short by a sprained ankle, so that should help him remain a productive player deep into his thirties. Off the field, he's a great role model both in the clubhouse and out in the community. For his career, the San Diego native (weird to think about, isn't it?) has 266 home runs, a .278/.318/.456 slash line, and 29.4 fWAR over 1686 games since 2006.

7. Nick Markakis (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 14 HR, .297/.366/.440, 114 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 162 games
Despite turning 35 in November, Nick Markakis is showing no signs of slowing down. Having landed on the disabled list just once in his entire major league career (for just over a month in 2012), the durable outfielder had his best season since 2008 in terms of fWAR this year, his 2.6 being the most he's had in a season since he put up 6.0 in 2008. He gets on base, smacks doubles (at least 38 in each of the past four seasons including 43 in 2018), doesn't strike out much, and isn't too much of a liability on defense. He could start even for some contenders, with his age being the only reason he ranks this low on the list. I see no reason he won't be a productive player at least in 2019 and 2020. For his career, the Atlanta area native has 179 home runs, a .288/.358/.424 slash line, and 28.5 fWAR over 2001 games since 2006.

8. Lonnie Chisenhall (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 1 HR, .321/.394/.452, 1 SB, 129 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 29 games
It's easy to forget about Lonnie Chisenhall, as he has played just 111 games over the past two seasons due to injury, including just 29 in 2018, but he's actually a very productive player when on the field. Over those past two seasons, he is slashing .297/.368/.503 with 13 home runs and 2.1 fWAR in what amounts to about two thirds of a season's worth of games. That's a three win pace if he's healthy, comparable to what we might see out of a guy like Josh Reddick, except Chisenhall's left/right splits aren't as drastic. He also joined the fly ball revolution last year, which helped produce those numbers. His lack of consistent health pushes him down to #8 on this list, but a healthy Chisenhall could be a steal for whoever signs him. For his career, the eastern North Carolina native has 64 home runs, a .268/.320/.427 slash line, and 7.9 fWAR over 688 games.

9. Carlos Gonzalez (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 16 HR, .276/.329/.467, 5 SB, 96 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 132 games
Gonzalez isn't the 3-5 win player he once was, but he's still a solid left handed bat with a proven track record and enough sock to justify a spot lower in the lineup. He has fairly significant left/right splits, hitting righties at a .284/.344/.485 clip in 2018 but putting up just a .259/.295/.424 line against lefties, so he could fit nicely into a platoon role. His numbers will drop with his new team, but expect some power with the ability to get on base at a decent rate, especially against right handed pitching. For his career, the Venezuelan has 231 home runs, a .287/.345/.506 slash line, and 26.3 fWAR over 1332 games since 2008.

10. Denard Span (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 11 HR, .261/.341/.419, 9 SB, 112 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR in 137 games
While Span's loss of speed with age has sapped his value on defense and on the base paths, he still walks enough to get on base at a pretty good rate, and he seems to have found his home run stroke late in his career. After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season from 2008-2015, he has reached double digits in each of the past three seasons. This shifts his value more to his bat and away from his speed and defense, and while he shouldn't be a starter for a contending team, he could be a productive regular on most non-contending teams and even bat at the top of a few lineups. He does turn 35 in spring training, so he won't get a long term deal. For his career, the Tampa native has 71 home runs, a .281/.347/.398 slash line, 185 stolen bases, and 27.7 fWAR over 1359 games since 2008.

Other notable
Curtis Granderson (13 HR, .242/.351/.431, 2 SB, 116 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR)
Jon Jay (3 HR, .268/.330/.347, 4 SB, 86 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR)
Cameron Maybin (4 HR, .249/.326/.336, 10 SB, 88 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Melky Cabrera (6 HR, .280/.335/.420, 1 SB, 102 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)
Carlos Gomez (9 HR, .208/.298/.336, 12 SB, 80 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR)
Jose Bautista (13 HR, .203/.348/.378, 4 SB, 107 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
Matt Joyce (7 HR, .208/.322/.353, 0 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR)
Gerardo Parra (6 HR, .284/.342/.372, 11 SB, 80 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
Austin Jackson (3 HR, .245/.299/.326, 3 SB, 74 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
Hunter Pence (4 HR, .226/.258/.332, 5 SB, 59 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR)

Designated Hitters

1. Nelson Cruz (2019 Age: 38-39)
2018 Stats: 37 HR, .256/.342/.509, 1 SB, 134 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 144 games
Even though Cruz turns 39 in July, he is proving that he still has plenty of sock left in his bat and can contribute to any lineup that can fit him in at DH. Even with no defensive value, he has put up five straight seasons with at least 37 home runs, and with his decent walk rate, he gets on base enough to where he's a real threat at the plate. At this point, nearing 40, he probably fits as a #5 hitter on a non-contending team or as a #6 hitter on a contender, and even at this age I see no reason why he can't hit 30+ home runs in each of the next two seasons, albeit with falling on-base percentages that sit in the .340-.360 range now but could fall below .330 in the near future. For his career, the Dominican has 360 home runs, a .274/.342/.518 slash line, and 33.1 fWAR over 1569 games since 2005.

2. Evan Gattis (2019 Age: 32)
2018 Stats: 25 HR, .226/.284/.452, 1 SB, 99 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR in 128 games
The bad news is that Gattis' offense took a hit in 2018 and dropped below league average for the first time in his career, but the good news is that he still hit more than 20 home runs for the fourth time in his five major league seasons. He's not exactly the impact hitter that Cruz is, and as a DH, that's problematic, but he can still fit in towards the bottom of a major league lineup and if a team has an opening at DH, it's a starting-quality bat. As recently as 2016, he slashed .251/.319/.508 with 32 home runs and 2.7 fWAR, and he can get behind the plate and catch in a pinch, so Gattis should find a place to fit in and contribute to a major league team. For his career, the Dallas native has 139 home runs, a .248/.300/.476 slash line, and 7.7 fWAR over 706 games since 2013. Not bad for a former janitor.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

First Half Awards

AL MVP: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.
After a fairly miserable debut in 2016 (.179/.263/.345), Judge has been unstoppable in his first full season, slashing .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs through 84 games, already setting the Yankees rookie home run record and winning a Home Run Derby. His 197 wRC+ shows that he's creating nearly twice as many runs as the league average hitter, and although he has struck out in 29.8% of his plate appearances, he has also walked in 16.7%, providing value in more than just home run power. His outside-the-zone swing percentage is down from 33.6% last year to 24.1% this year, showing sustainable success. Mark McGwire holds the rookie record with 49 home runs, but Judge is just 19 away and could easily become the first rookie ever to hit 50 in a season. His on-base percentage sits at .448 right now, and even if he follows Steamer's fairly pessimistic projection and posts a .352 OBP for the rest of the season, he'll still finish at .408, so he's the whole offensive package. He's been worth 5.5 fWAR this year, well ahead of second-place Jose Altuve's 4.4.

Runner-up: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians): 17 HR, 48 RBI, .332 AVG, 10 SB, 157 wRC+.
After Judge, there are a lot of players who have produced about the same amount this year, but I chose to put Ramirez in the runner-up spot because of the ridiculous amount of lineup protection in Houston, where George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa all could easily fill this spot. Ramirez has put up his own crazy-good numbers without the same amount of protection in the lineup, slashing .332/.388/.601 with 17 home runs and 27 doubles through 86 games. Adding ten stolen bases and good defense at third base, he has been worth 3.9 fWAR, holding up more than his fair share of the responsibility as part of the Indians young dynamic duo with Francisco Lindor. He's been especially hot as of late, slashing .401/.446/.774 since June 3rd, spearheading the Indians' run to the top of the AL Central.

Honorable mentions: Jose Altuve (13 HR, .347 AVG, 18 SB, 161 wRC+), George Springer (27 HR, .310 AVG, 2 SB, 164 wRC+), Carlos Correa (20 HR, .325 AVG, 0 SB, 161 wRC+), Mike Trout (16 HR, .337 AVG, 10 SB, 208 wRC+)

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (Washington Nationals): 20 HR, 65 RBI, .325 AVG, 2 SB, 161 wRC+.
Bryce has been producing back at his 2015 levels, slashing .325/.431/.590 in the middle of a lineup that has been one of the most prolific in baseball. He sits second to Joey Votto in just about every offensive category, but because he adds value with good defense in right field, he truly contributes to the Nationals in every way he can. He slumped a bit in late May and into early June, but he seems to have rebounded and is slashing .433/.528/.700 in the month of July, currently sitting on an eight game hitting streak. Overall, he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.

Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 26 HR, 68 RBI, .315 AVG, 3 SB, 167 wRC+.
Votto's edge over Paul Goldschmidt is razor thin, but I think he has just enough to take the runner-up spot, slashing .315/.427/.631 with 26 home runs through 88 games. Arguably the closest thing this generation of baseball players has to Ted Williams, Votto has walked in 16.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 10.9%. He hits for power, he gets on base, he makes the hitters around him better, and he's overall one of the very first bats I'd pick to be in my lineup this year. What's even crazier is that his .291 BABIP says that he may have been the recipient of bad luck so far, especially considering his career rate is .354, though his hard hit rate and soft hit rates aren't quite as stellar as they have been in the past, so who knows. What we do know is that Votto leads the NL in home runs (26), slugging percentage (.631), OPS (1.058), wOBA (.432), and wRC+ (167), and that he has been worth 3.8 fWAR.

Honorable mentions: Paul Goldschmidt (20 HR, .312 AVG, 13 SB, 153 wRC+), Daniel Murphy (14 HR, .342 AVG, 1 SB, 146 wRC+), Justin Turner (10 HR, .377 AVG, 2 SB, 183 wRC+), Ryan Zimmerman (19 HR, .330 AVG, 1 SB, 148 wRC+).

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox): 11-4, 2.75 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 178/22 K/BB.
During his time with the White Sox, Sale bounced back and forth between "very good" and "excellent," and when he was shipped over to a tougher division and a tougher home park in Boston, it was expected that his numbers would revert back to "very good," at least at first, as had happened with David Price. However, Sale had no intentions of letting that happen, instead putting himself on pace for what may be the best season of his career with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He has struck out 35.9% of the batters he has faced, which is a ridiculous number for a starter, meanwhile walking only 4.4%. He has been surprisingly consistent, as you might be surprised to hear he has just three scoreless starts this season, but he hasn't been blown up in any, either. His best start came on April 20th, when he struck out 13 Blue Jays over eight shutout innings, allowing four hits and walking just one. His worst start came in his return to Chicago, when the White Sox touched him up for six runs (five earned) over five innings, but he still struck out nine.

Runner-up: Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros): 9-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/18 K/BB.
Keuchel has only made eleven starts due to injuries, but no pitcher other than Chris Sale has been able to step in and firmly take over this runner-up spot, with even the best pitchers' ERA's creeping up close to 3.00. Over a month ago, when Keuchel made his most recent start, he was the clear front runner for the AL Cy Young Award, holding a 1.67 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and just 48 hits allowed in 75.2 innings. He has given up more than two runs in just one of his eleven starts, when manager A.J. Hinch left him in too long and he gave up three runs in the ninth inning while vying for a complete game. Other than that easily avoidable bad-on-paper start, he is 9-0 with a 1.20 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. When he's on the mound, he's easily been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year, and we're eagerly awaiting his imminent return.

Honorable mentions: Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Ervin Santana (10-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), Carlos Carrasco (10-3, 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals): 10-5, 2.10 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 173/27 K/BB.
Slowly and steadily, Max Scherzer has put up an amazing season. His 0.78 WHIP is lower than any full National League season since 1876, and if he can maintain the pace he is on, it will be the second lowest in MLB history, trailing only Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000. He's also leading the MLB in ERA this year at 2.10, enough to give him the rare edge over Clayton Kershaw for NL Cy Young. He has absolutely dominated almost every time out, reaching double digits in strikeouts in 11 of his 18 starts and striking out at least one batter per inning in all 18. In terms of consistency, his worst month in terms of both ERA and WHIP was April, when he went 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, striking out 40 batters in 33.2 innings. Not bad for your worst month.

Runner-up: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): 14-2, 2.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 159/22 K/BB.
We're seeing classic Clayton Kershaw, as he is in the middle of posting his fifth straight season with an ERA below 2.20 and a WHIP below 0.95. Like Scherzer, the highest ERA he has posted in any month was a 2.43 mark in May, and he has shown the uncanny ability to bounce back from tough starts and keep them from snowballing. He has only allowed more than two runs in a game four times this year, but in his subsequent start after each of those games, he is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and a 0.59 WHIP, striking out 39 in 28.2 innings. Nobody gets to Kershaw two starts in a row, and that's part of what makes him great.

Honorable mentions: Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP), Gio Gonzalez (7-4, 2.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 30 HR, 66 RBI, .329 AVG, 6 SB, 197 wRC+.
See MVP write-up. If Judge gets his projected 252 additional plate appearances this year (Steamer) and literally strikes out in every single one, he'd still slash .176/.290/.370 with 30 home runs, which would still theoretically have him in the running.

Runner-up: Andrew Benintendi (Boston Red Sox): 12 HR, 51 RBI, .279 AVG, 9 SB, 106 wRC+.
Benintendi won't catch Judge, but he's having a fine season in his own right. Through 82 games, Benintendi, who just over two years ago was still suiting up for the Arkansas Razorbacks, is slashing .279/.357/.446 with 12 home runs and nine stolen bases, showcasing an all around game that will be hugely valuable for the Red Sox in the coming years. If you look closer, though, he's actually having a better season than the numbers say. He had a horrible slump in which he went hitless in seven straight games from May 10th to the 17th, totaling 26 at bats, but outside of that, he's been putting up All Star numbers: all 12 of his home runs (obviously) with a .305/.375/.487 slash line. With his low .299 BABIP, he'll likely finish the season with better numbers than he has right now. He has been worth 1.4 fWAR this year.

Honorable mentions: Trey Mancini (14 HR, 44 RBI, .312 AVG, 1 SB, 133 wRC+), Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), Yulieski Gurriel (11 HR, 44 RBI, .297 AVG, 1 SB, 115 wRC+), Danny Barnes (2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers): 25 HR, 58 RBI, .261 AVG, 5 SB, 145 wRC+.
While Bellinger hasn't quite dominated the NL the way Aaron Judge has dominated the AL, he's been quite amazing in his 70 games, slashing .261/.342/.619 with 25 home runs. He may not hit .300 to back up his power, but he has supplemented his average .261 batting average with 33 walks, good for 11.3% of his plate appearances and a .342 on base percentage. Of course, when you're slugging over .600 with those 25 home runs, anything more than an acceptable OBP is just a bonus. He already has six multi-homer games. From May 5th to June 25th, a span of just 48 games, he blasted 21 home runs. His uppercut is, in my opinion, baseball's most aesthetically pleasing swing, and when you add in his great defense, he's a complete player. He's been worth 2.3 fWAR this season.

Runner-up: Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies): 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 65/41 K/BB.
Freeland has been an enigma this year. The 8th overall pick of the 2014 draft, Freeland has kept his ERA under 4.00 despite pitching half his games in Coors Field, an extremely difficult place to be a pitcher. Oddly enough, he has been way better at Coors (5-4, 3.23 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) than he has been on the road (4-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Additionally, he's somehow getting it done with a low strikeout rate (14%) and a high walk rate (8.8%) that should theoretically hurt him in an environment where any ball put in play is dangerous. He has induced 1.8 ground outs for every fly out, so he does have that going in his favor. In his final start before the All Star Break, he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the White Sox and finished with 8.1 shutout innings on one hit, three walks, and nine strikeouts at Coors Field.

Honorable mentions: Jesus Aguilar (9 HR, 34 RBI, .294 AVG, 0 SB, 131 wRC+), Josh Bell (16 HR, 44 RBI, .239 AVG, 2 SB, 107 wRC+), Antonio Senzatela (9-3, 4.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), Ian Happ (13 HR, 31 RBI, .257 AVG, 3 SB, 122 wRC+).

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Tracking Awards: 6/4


AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 16 HR, 36 RBI, .337 AVG, 10 SB, 212 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
You never like to hear about players getting injured, but having the game's best player, in the midst of a career year, go down for almost two months is especially disappointing. At this point, though, he hasn't missed enough time to justify giving the award to someone else, like Aaron Judge, so let's recap what he was doing before he got hurt. Through 47 games, Trout had 16 home runs, 14 doubles, a pair of triples, and ten stolen bases, slashing .337/.461/.742 and leading the MLB with a 212 wRC+ and 3.4 fWAR. We all wish Trout a speedy recovery, and if he keeps playing the way he has, he could conceivably still win the AL MVP at the end of the season as long as BBWAA writers don't continue their misguided trend of valuing team performance. 

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (WSH): 15 HR, 43 RBI, .328 AVG, 0 SB, 179 wRC+. Last week: Freddie Freeman.
Freddie Freeman still leads the MLB in wOBA (.488) and the NL in wRC+ (208), but unlike Trout, he has now missed enough time with his injury to justify moving the award elsewhere. Bryce Harper is very much back in his 2015 form, with his .328/.438/.655 slash line comparing well to 2015's .330/.460/.649. The heart of a lineup that also includes Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy, he is currently serving a three game suspension for *hot take alert* standing up for himself after being beaned by Giants reliever Hunter Strickland. We are extremely lucky to be able to watch Harper and Trout (once he comes back in July) compete against each other, even if they aren't in the same league. It's reminiscent of the Mantle-Mays-Snider era to me. While Bryce probably compares better to Duke Snider than to Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays at this point, comparing Trout to Mantle or Mays may not be too much of an overstatement at this point.

AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel (HOU): 9-0, 1.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 69/18 K/BB. Last week: Keuchel.
Unlike most of the other awards here (save for AL ROY), this one is pretty clear. Dallas Keuchel has not only bounced back from a rough 2016 (4.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) to regain his 2015 form in which he won the AL Cy Young Award, but he's actually putting up a career year that outperforms anything he's ever done. Through eleven starts, he's unbeaten (with the help of MLB's best offense) with an MLB-leading 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, allowing just 67 baserunners over 75.2 innings. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in ten of his eleven starts, with his only blip being an eight inning, five earned run performance against the Angels in which his manager left him in to long and he allowed three runs in the eighth. If you take out that one start, which really wasn't as bad as the stat line would suggest, he has a 1.20 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 64/16 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 7-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 92/11 K/BB. Last week: Kershaw.
Max Scherzer is doing his best to challenge him here, but realistically, it's tough to see baseball's best pitcher relinquishing this spot. Any time he has a tough start, he bounces back better than ever; this season, in his three starts that have immediately succeeded starts in which he allows at least three runs, Kershaw has a 1.19 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP, allowing three earned runs and striking out 31 over 22.2 innings. Obviously, it's a small sample size, but one of the many things that make Kershaw great is that he will not let one tough start build on him. Overall, he has a 2.28 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and 90 strikeouts over 83 innings, which is right in line with what is expected out of him.

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 18 HR, 41 RBI, .326 AVG, 4 SB, 197 wRC+. Last week: Judge.
Forget AL ROY, Judge is the frontrunner to take over the AL MVP spot once Trout misses enough games. He is leading the MLB with 18 home runs, and when you throw in his eight doubles, two triples, and 32 walks, he has an extremely impressive .326/.433/.691 slash line, regardless of the fact that he's a 25 year old rookie. He's currently riding a seven game hitting streak in which he has knocked three home runs, and he's actually drawn a walk as well in each of his past five. One possible red flag to watch is his strikeout rate, which has climbed from 26.7% in April to 29.7% in May to 42.9% in three June games (two strikeouts in each game), and it could be a sign of an impending slump. His walk rate also dropped from 14.4% in April to 13.5% in May, before jumping to 28.6% in June, though keep in mind for both the strikeout and walk rates that June's sample size is too small to really get much from the data. Analysts have been predicting Judge to slow down for some time now, and he's proven them wrong so far, so we can continue to sit back and enjoy the monster home runs and surprisingly high on-base percentages for now.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 7-2, 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 44/20 K/BB. Last week: Kyle Freeland.
Senzatela and rotation-mate Kyle Freeland are neck and neck for this award, but Senzatela has taken the lead for now. Through eleven starts, six of them in Coors Field, Senzatela has a 3.49 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, striking out 44 batters in 67 innings. He wasn't as sharp in May as he was in April, having allowed four earned runs in three of his past four starts, but sandwiched inside was one of the greatest games any pitcher has thrown this season. Facing the Cardinals in Coors Field on May 26th, Senzatela tossed eight shutout innings and allowed just five hits and walked nobody, striking out three. First off, to allow no runs and no walks over eight innings is impressive regardless of the situation, but to do it in Coors Field, as a rookie, and against the St. Louis Cardinals, who aren't elite hitting-wise but certainly are no easy foe, is pretty amazing.

Minor League Watch: Chance Adams (NYY AAA): 7-1, 1.24 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 59/22 K/BB. Last week: Kolby Allard.
Few players, if any, can match Chance Adams' minor league success over the past three years. Since being drafted in the fifth round, 153rd overall, out of Dallas Baptist University in 2015, Adams has been nearly untouchable. Over 49 games (34 starts), he is 23-3 with a 1.96 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and 248 strikeouts over 220.2 innings across five different levels. This season, he's been better than ever. Starting at AA Trenton, the 22 year old put up a 1.03 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over six starts, striking out 32 in 35 innings. He was promoted to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, and he's been just as good, putting up a 1.57 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP over four starts while striking out 27 in 23 innings. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season, and he had his best start on May 31st. Squaring up against Columbus, the Indians' AAA affiliate, he allowed just one hit and two walks while striking out 12 Clippers over six shutout innings. New York's rotation is full right now with Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Luis Severino, and Jordan Montgomery, but once there's an opening, Adams could be the one to seize it.

Sunday, May 14, 2017

Tracking Awards: 5/14

AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 10 HR, 24 RBI, .347 AVG, 5 SB, 216 wRC+. Last week: Trout.
Trout and Judge remain neck and neck offensively (216 to 212 in wRC+, .471 to .473 in wOBA, 1.151 to 1.150 in OPS), but Trout gets the edge due to defensive value and the lack of lineup protection around him. He is slashing .347/.441/.711, all of which would be career highs, and his .376 BABIP (the "luck" factor) is not too high above his career .361. Coming into today, he has homered in back to back games, easing any worries about his hamstring at least from a hitting standpoint. This season has been vintage Mike Trout, a guy who is a future first ballot Hall of Famer easily.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (WSH): 11 HR, 31 RBI, .368 AVG, 0 SB, 209 wRC+. Last week: Ryan Zimmerman.
Bryce Harper will take over this spot from his teammate, Ryan Zimmerman, as he outplayed him this week. He is getting on base at a ridiculous pace, leading the MLB with a .493 on-base percentage that crushed #2 Freddie Freeman's .463. He has walked more times (29) than he has struck out (27), while adding 11 home runs and nine doubles to go along with valuable defense. His 2.5 fWAR leads the MLB, and his .499 wOBA is second only to Zimmerman's .518. He's already had three four-hit games. The same day that he agreed to the largest arbitration contract in history, he knocked a walk-off home run for the Nationals, helping them maintain the best record in the National League. With Harper, Zimmerman, and Daniel Murphy (.331/.392/.554) in the middle of the lineup, the Nats offense has been pretty unstoppable to this point.

AL Cy Young: Jason Vargas (KC): 5-1, 1.01 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 39/8 K/BB. Last week: Ervin Santana.
Ervin Santana finally had a tough start, so the equally surprising Jason Vargas will step into this spot. He has only allowed runs in three of his seven starts, and he has only allowed more than one run in one of his starts. Take out one mediocre start against the White Sox on April 24th (5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H), then Vargas is 5-0 with a 0.45 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over his other six starts. In each of those starts, he has gone at least six innings, allowed no more than one run or six hits, and walked no more than three batters. The 34 year old made just twelve starts from 2015-2016 due to Tommy John surgery, but he has come back stronger than ever here in his twelfth major league season.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (LAD): 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 57/8 K/BB. Last week: Mike Leake.
Think about this: despite those great numbers, Kershaw is on pace to have his worst ERA and his worst WHIP since 2012 (2.53 and 1.02, respectively), when he led the National League in both. (Yes, that was typed correctly). Basically, his worst season was still the best in the NL, and this season, his "second worst," is still the best in the NL. Kershaw's "bloated" stats are still excellent, with a 2.43 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 57/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings. He gets the benefit of the doubt, because through eight starts, he's already pitched at Coors Field twice, allowing allowing a combined six runs over thirteen innings. At Coors Field, he's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 13 innings, which is pretty respectable for the conditions, but away from the pitchers' hell, he is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts over 42.2 innings. That is closer to the Clayton Kershaw we know, and it's the reason he gets the NL Cy Young Award for me at this point.

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge (NYY): 13 HR, 28 RBI, .315 AVG, 2 SB, 212 wRC+. Last week: Judge.
This one is the easiest choice, because Judge is even competing with Mike Trout for the AL MVP Award at this point. Through 31 games, he is tied for the MLB lead with 13 home runs while slashing .315/.411/.739, basically on par with Trout's offensive production. The 6'7", 282 pound outfielder has also been pretty good on defense, and despite solid efforts from Boston's Andrew Benintendi and Seattle's Mitch Haniger, it is looking like Judge could end up winning this award unanimously. He hasn't homered since May 3rd, though, so he should get back on that.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 5-1, 2.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB. Last week: Senzatela.
New week, more of the same from the Rockies' star young pitcher. This week's start came in Coors Field against the defending World Champion Cubs, but he was unfazed, allowing just two runs on five hits and three walks in six innings, striking out four. That brings his Coors Field-only ERA down to 3.12 and his WHIP to 1.08, versus a 2.50 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in stadiums that aren't pitchers' hells. For any pitcher to perform this well as a Rockie is impressive, but for a rookie, it's downright amazing.

Minor League Watch: Taylor Gushue (Nationals High Class A): 11 HR, 33 RBI, .326 AVG, 0 SB, 195 wRC+. Last week: Thomas Pannone.
Quick update on Pannone: upon his promotion to AA Akron, Pannone extended his scoreless streak to 51.1 innings, 33.1 of which have come this season. Obviously, AA wasn't too much of a challenge in that start.
Okay, on to Gushue. Playing 2016 at High Class A Bradenton, Gushue put up a very mediocre season by slashing .226/.282/.357 with eight home runs over 90 games at age 22. The Pirates then sent him, with cash, to the Nationals for prospect Chris Bostick, and this team has been a completely flipped script. Repeating High Class A, he has slashed .326/.373/.753 over 25 games, crushing eleven home runs and five doubles for Potomac. Aside from a seven game homerless drought from April 15th to April 23rd, he has not gone more than two games without a home run at any point this season. He homered in four straight games April 10th to April 14th, and also had two-homer games on May 1st and May 10th. Meanwhile, he is batting .326 with a .373 on-base percentage, so he's not just a power bat. Look for this pop-up Nationals prospect down the road, as he will play all of 2017 at 23 years old.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

Tracking Awards: 4/23

If The Season Ended Today

AL MVP: Mike Trout (LAA): 5 HR, 14 RBI, .343 AVG, 3 SB, 212 wRC+. Last week: Francisco Lindor
Wow, what do you know, Mike Trout is on pace to win another MVP award. Through 19 games, he has five home runs with a pretty .343/.420/.686 slash line, leading the AL with that .686 slugging percentage. This has come from spreading his offense out, has he has not posted back to back hitless games yet this season, with his longest hitless streak being just five at bats in Kansas City. What else is there to say? At this point, nothing should surprise us about Mike Trout.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (WSH): 7 HR, 20 RBI, .393 AVG, 0 SB, 250 wRC+. Last week: Zack Cozart.
Harper and Freddie Freeman are having essentially the exact same season at the plate, as both have 24 hits and seven home runs, with Harper doing so in one more at bat. All-encompassing stats like them just about the same, with wRC+ giving Freeman the edge 251 to 250, wOBA going to Freeman .550 to .548, OPS falling on Harper 1.362 to 1.357, and fWAR favoring Harper 1.6 to 1.5. I'll ultimately give it to Harper because of positional value, with Fangraphs rating him out just better than Freeman there. Harper is having a monster season, slashing .393/.526/.836 (Freeman's nearly identical line is .400/.507/.850), clubbing six doubles and seven home runs in 17 games. He is leading the MLB with 17 walks as well, making his .526 on-base percentage easily the highest in baseball. On Wednesday, he had possibly the best game we've seen from any hitter this season, as he knocked a single, a double, and two home runs in four at bats while also drawing an intentional walk in Atlanta. Not only that, but it was his second four-hit game of the season. 2015 Bryce is back.

AL Cy Young: Ervin Santana (MIN): 3-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 20/8 K/BB. Last week: James Paxton.
After seeing Trout and Harper be the early MVP's, seeing Ervin Santana's name under AL Cy Young is a bit different. Through four starts, Santana has allowed just two runs on nine hits, walking eight to put up an MLB-best 0.61 WHIP. His best game was on April 15th, when he held the White Sox to just two baserunners in a one-hit shutout, striking out eight. He had his worst game of the season on Thursday, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over six innings against the division-leading Indians, and if that's the worst you can do, you'll take it every time. The 34 year old may be in his 13th major league season, but two runs on seventeen baserunners over 28 innings to start the season isn't half bad.

NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard (NYM): 1-1, 1.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 30/0 K/BB. Last week: Syndergaard.
Nobody really stands out in the NL Cy Young field, but I'll go with Noah Syndergaard for a couple of reasons. Through four starts, he has allowed five earned runs on 23 hits over 26 innings, which is great in and of itself but not quite Cy Young level. On the flip side, he is still yet to walk a batter, and his 30 strikeouts give him a very solid 10.38 per nine innings. He has also had very little help from his defense, as they've allowed a .324 batting average on balls in play, which is a little bit higher than you would want, while also making enough errors to allow four unearned runs. Pitching with a sloppy defense behind you can be tough, which makes Syndergaard's numbers even more amazing. He allowed just two earned runs in his first three starts before a tougher fourth start, in which he allowed five runs (only three earned) on seven hits and one hit batsmen over seven innings, striking out 10. We'll keep you updated on when Syndergaard finally walks a batter.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mitch Haniger (SEA): 4 HR, 16 RBI, .297 AVG, 2 SB, 185 wRC+. Last week: Haniger.
Haniger and Aaron Judge are neck and neck, with OPS slightly preferring Judge 1.016 to .977 and wOBA going the same way .421 to .417. However, Haniger has the narrow edge in wRC+ 185 to 183 and in fWAR 1.1 to 0.8, and I'll give it to Haniger because he has put up the same numbers over more plate appearances. Through 19 games, Haniger is slashing .297/.409/.568, cracking six doubles, a triple, and four home runs while even swiping a pair of bases. He is leading all rookies in virtually all categories except home runs and slugging percentage, but he also plays in Seattle, a pitchers' park. An older rookie at 26 (he's older than Mike Trout), Haniger's minor league breakout in 2015 is looking more and more sustainable every day.

NL Rookie of the Year: Antonio Senzatela (COL): 3-0, 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 17/4 K/BB. Last week: Amir Garrett.
Amir Garrett hasn't done anything to lose spot here, but Senzatela has simply been amazing. Apparently, someone forgot to tell the 22 year old out of Venezuela that pitching in Coors Field is difficult, as he has actually posted a better ERA and WHIP in his two home starts (1.93 and 0.71) than in his two road starts (2.25 and 1.00). His most impressive outing came on Saturday in Colorado, as he held Buster Posey and the Giants to just one run on four hits over seven innings in the thin Denver air. He struck out just three, but when you pitch like that, who cares. He has also walked just four batters in 26 innings for a 1.38 walks per nine innings rate that is 14th best in the major leagues. Oh year, and before this season, he had made just seven total starts above High Class A in the minors.

Minor League Watch: Tyler Mahle (CIN AA): 4-0, 0.68 ERA, 0.45 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB for AA Pensacola.
The Reds' seventh round pick out of a California high school in 2013, Mahle has worked his way up prospect charts through the years, with MLB.com rating him the Reds' 10th best prospect and Minor League Ball's John Sickels ranking him 16th before the season. However, both sites may want to reevaluate, as the 6'3" righty has been nothing short of amazing this season at AA Pensacola. Sandwiched between two starts in which he allowed one run over 5.2 and five innings, respectively, was a spectacular performance in Biloxi (Brewers AA) where he allowed just one hit and two walks over seven shutout innings, giving him a 1.02 ERA and a 0.61 WHIP over his first three starts. Then, on Saturday, something amazing happened. Taking the mound in Mobile (Angels AA), Mahle retired all 27 BayBears that he faced to throw the Southern League's first perfect game since 1970, striking out eight. What's even more amazing is that he did it on just 88 pitches. For the season, he now has a 0.68 ERA, a 0.45 WHIP, and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.2 innings as he has allowed just two runs on seven hits and five walks. The 22 year old looks like a potential number four starter for the Reds in the near future.