Showing posts with label Jacob Wilson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jacob Wilson. Show all posts

Friday, September 15, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

Full list of draftees

To be honest, given the A's draft capital versus what they brought in, this is one of my least favorite draft classes of the season. I personally think the A's didn't bring in nearly as much upside as they could have while picking near the beginning of each round and holding an extra CBA pick to boot, but of course, time will tell. The team was also put in a tough position when despite having the second worst record in baseball, they fell victim to the draft lottery and slid back to the sixth pick in a draft class that wound up having a clear top five prospects. Overall, it turned into a pitching heavy class after the A's spent their first three picks on position players, with the bulk of their overslot money going to two high school pitchers in rounds three and four.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-6: SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $6.63 million. Signing bonus: $5.5 million ($1.13 million below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #10. Baseball America: #9. Prospects Live: #13.
The A's started off their draft by getting Jacob Wilson at a massive discount, paying him closer to the slot value for the #10 pick here at #6 and saving over a million dollars in the process. Wilson has an extreme profile, to say the least. The son of former Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson, Jacob has gotten better and better each year at Grand Canyon and slashed .411/.461/.635 with six home runs and a 5/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games in 2023. His profile is carried by the best pure bat to ball skills in the entire class, perhaps the best since Nick Madrigal back in 2018. The man has struck out just twelve times over the past two seasons combined, a span of 108 games, with seven in 2022 and five in 2023. Wilson is actually a pretty aggressive hitter that chases more than most other hitters, but it doesn't matter because his 80 grade pure bat to ball skills help him make absurdly consistent contact both inside and outside the zone. He simply does not swing and miss, period. Because he never whiffs and also likes to chase outside the zone, he also doesn't walk much, and 88% of his plate appearances ended with a ball in play (including home runs). For comparison, just 49% of current Athletic Ryan Noda's plate appearances have ended as such this year. Wilson has a jittery setup at the plate, wagging back and forth and constantly in motion, then slashes at the ball with a quick, precisely accurate right handed swing. He's built like a string bean at 6'3", 190 pounds, and because of his hit over power approach, there's not a ton of impact in the bat yet. His exit velocities are well below average and at this point he projects for no more than a dozen or so home runs per season at best, so he'll need to fill out his frame considerably if he wants to change that. Right now, he projects as a high average type that provides most of his value through just that, with Luis Arraez obviously the first name that pops into mind. Defensively, he has received mixed reviews at shortstop and could stick there with some refinement despite just average speed. He's light on his feet but does take quick, short steps that could profile better for him at second or third base. He has the arm strength to make third base work. The bat profiles better at shortstop due to the potential lack of impact, but he should be able to play every day regardless of where he ends up defensively. So far, his numbers are right in line with expectations as he's slashing .333/.391/.475 with one home run and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Lansing.

CBA-39: 3B Myles Naylor, St. Joan of Arc HS [ON] {video}
Slot value: $2.2 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million.
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #66. Prospects Live: #97.
In being drafted 39th overall, Myles Naylor became the third highest drafted member of his family. His oldest brother, Josh, was drafted twelfth overall out of St. Joan of Arc Secondary School in 2015, while his middle brother, Bo, went 29th overall in 2018. Myles will join them out of the same high school here in 2023, and next he'll look to join them in the majors. He's primarily a power bat, with a whippy right handed swing that produces above average power especially to the pull side. His approach is pull oriented at this point as well, which can cause him problems with soft stuff, so finding more balance at the plate will certainly be on the docket for Oakland's player development. He's a pretty patient hitter and he's young, so it should be doable, and that power and athleticism in the box give a lot to dream on. The Toronto-area product is also a solid defender that should be able to stick at third base with a strong arm and the athleticism that I mentioned. There's nice upside here as a potential 20-30 home run bat with solid on-base percentages and good defense, something like a Josh Donaldson type of player with perhaps a tick less glove. He has held his own after being pushed aggressively to start his pro career, especially in the power department, slashing .214/.288/.381 with six home runs and a 55/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Stockton.

2-41: OF Ryan Lasko, Rutgers {video}
Slot value: $2.09 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($394,900 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #89. Baseball America: #75. Prospects Live: #78.
Ryan Lasko is a really interesting one for Oakland. He has been one of the best all-around players in the Big Ten over the past two seasons, where he has combined to slash .340/.430/.614 with 27 home runs, 31 stolen bases, and a 77/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games. Lasko does a lot of things well. He takes pretty professional at bats and in 2023 walked more than he struck out for the first time in his college career, while he's not huge at 6', 190 pounds, his longer arms and legs give him average game power which plays well to the pull side. His pitch recognition is strong enough that he can turn on the ball with authority despite fringy raw exit velocities, though I'm not sure how well the power will play to the opposite field in pro ball with wood bats. Overall, it's not the flashiest offensive profile, but there aren't really any holes, either. He's an above average runner with excellent instincts that help him stretch for extra bases and steal bags, aiding to that all around offensive profile. The New Jersey native plays a mean center field, where his speed and instincts translate to plus defense that will keep him up the middle long term. That's important because it takes some pressure off his bat and will enable him to profile well as a bottom third of the order hitter while still playing every day. If the impact doesn't come around in pro ball, his defense will also buy him a place as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions. Lasko is a slow starter at times and may take some time to adjust to each level, but he'll come around. He's also young, having only turned 21 shortly before the draft. He didn't hit much in his pro debut, slashing .154/.233/.231 with a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games in the Arizona Complex League but like I said, he's usually a slow starter.

3-72: RHP Steven Echavarria, Millburn HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($1.99 million above slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #73. Prospects Live: #67.
The A's saved about a million and a half dollars against their bonus pool with those first and third picks, so they deployed all of it and more into third rounder Steven Echavarria, who signed for just over the slot value of the #27 pick here at #72. Echavarria will be an interesting one for the A's to develop with one of the most well-rounded profiles of any high school pitcher in this class. A velocity bump means that he was sitting in the low to mid 90's in 2023, touching 98 at best with running and sinking life. His above average slider is his best secondary, while his solid average curveball and changeup give him a full arsenal to mix and match against pro hitters. Everything plays up because he has excellent command not just with the fastball but with the secondary stuff too, which is a huge separator for a high school pitcher. The 6'1" righty has a loose, elastic delivery with strong, repeatable mechanics that help him maintain that stuff and command deep into his starts. He's skinny and doesn't have a ton of projection remaining, but he's already up to 98 and looks like he'll settle in as a mid-rotation starter. The North Jersey native didn't turn 18 until after the draft, making him extremely young for the class, and he's about as polished as they come for a high school arm. 

4-103: RHP Cole Miller, Newbury Park HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $653,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($346,700 above slot value).
My rank: #83. MLB Pipeline: #121. Baseball America: #107. Prospects Live: #83.
This is the first pick the A's made in this draft that I can say I actively like. Cole Miller went well above slot value in the fourth round to sign for early third round money, almost exactly slot value for Steven Echavarria's position one round ahead of him and will bypass a UCLA commitment in the process. Miller was a bit of a late riser in this class who seems to be coming into his own, and I believe he'll continue to trend in the right direction for a long time. The fastball has ticked up and now sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at best, playing up because he gets great extension down the mound to give it flatter plane. His slider is now flashing above average and his changeup is coming along nicely as well, giving him a very solid three pitch mix. I really like the way he moves on the mound with a smooth, athletic delivery that promises to help him continue to add velocity as he gets stronger. For now, it's more athletic and efficient than it is explosive, so the A's will hope to find a little more quick twitch in him and bring it out. His command is generally pretty solid, though he can cast the ball and will have to tighten that up. At 6'6", 225 pounds, he's a big kid with room to mature his frame. So long as his command holds together, there's a nice floor here as a back-end starter with a ton of upside if he can find a way to get more explosive on the mound and add a couple more ticks of velocity.

5-139: RHP Nathan Dettmer, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $459,800. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($34,800 below slot value).
My rank: #169. MLB Pipeline: #198. Baseball America: #81. Prospects Live: #171.
Nathan Dettmer's stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster, so the A's are buying into his highs. He showed a ton of promise as an underclassman, then after a strong fall last year, was many scouts' pick to click in 2023. Dettmer had worked his way into top two round discussions at that point, but unfortunately he struggled in 2023 with a 6.32 ERA and a 65/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings. His strikeout rate dipped from 20.1% as a sophomore to 19.2% as a junior while his walk rate more than doubled from 6.1% to 12.4%. as his command backed up. He sits in low to mid 90's and touched 99 in the fall with hard running and sinking action to keep it off barrels, though it flattened out in 2023 and his velocity was inconsistent. The San Antonio native flashes a plus slider which functions as his best pitch, and it did still look good in 2023. The changeup had been coming along nicely but stalled a little in 2023, so it's fringy but has shown above average potential. He's working in a curveball as well to give a softer look. Dettmer pounded the strike zone as an underclassman, albeit with better control than command, but struggled to find the zone consistently in 2023 as he often spiked his slider and had trouble locating his fastball. The 6'4" righty has a very strong, sturdy frame which should lend itself well to starting, and he did do a good job of maintaining his stuff through starts in 2023. Even so, if he can't rediscover his previously loud stuff and find a way to get ahead in counts, he may have to fall back to the bullpen and let his fastball/slider combination overpower hitters. To this point, he has struggled to miss bats even when he has his best stuff, adding to the reliever risk. It will be interesting to see if the A's can finally help Dettmer put it all together and become the turbo sinker/slider power arm that he has shown flashes of. He threw three innings in his first taste of pro ball, allowing no runs while striking out three and walking one in the Arizona Complex League.

6-166: OF Jonah Cox, Oral Roberts {video}
Slot value: $354,500. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($54,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #161. Baseball America: #403. Prospects Live: #117.
Jonah Cox gives the A's a fun do-it-all type. He's been all over the middle of the country, having grown up in the Denver area before playing at three different schools in three years – Butler JC (Kansas) as a freshman, Eastern Oklahoma State as a sophomore, and Oral Roberts as a junior. 2023 may have been his first season at the Division I level, but you would never tell by watching him play. Cox slashed .412/.470/.646 with eleven home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 53/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, highlighted by a 47 game hitting streak that marked the third longest in Division I history. If he had one more hit as a freshman, he would have hit over .400 in all three college seasons. Cox uses a simple, easy right handed swing to spray the ball around the field with extreme consistency, perfectly willing to go the other way or poke one through the hole. At 6'3", 200 pounds, he's strong enough to turn on the ball for some power to the pull side, keeping pitchers honest and helping him project for potential double digit home run totals at the big league level. Cox can get aggressive at the plate, especially against advanced pitching, so that will be something to watch as he has made the jump from JUCO to a small Division I conference to pro ball in consecutive seasons. A plus runner, he stole 120 bases in 175 career games over three seasons, with his instincts and baseball IQ providing an additional boon. He's just now learning the outfield after spending most of his career at shortstop and needs more refinement there, but there's no reason to think he won't put it together and become a solid center fielder. Overall, it's a fourth outfielder projection with many different ways to impact the game. So far, he's slashing .287/.366/.403 with a pair of home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 41/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Stockton.

11-316: RHP Drew Conover, Rutgers {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #220. Baseball America: #329. Prospects Live: #247.
The A's picked up their second Rutgers Scarlet Knight here and get an interesting arm in the process. He spent the first two years of his college career as a hard throwing reliever at Seton Hall, then parlayed a strong summer in the Cape Cod League (1.35 ERA, 20/6 K/BB in 20 IP) into a transfer opportunity to Rutgers. Transitioning to the rotation, he pitched to mixed results with a 4.50 ERA and an 83/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. Conover provides a tough look for hitters. His fastball sits in the low 90's as a starter but touches 97 out of the bullpen, coming in with hard running and sinking action from a lower slot. He drops in an above average slider that looks plus when he locates it, with hard sweep that makes it a true bat misser. The West Jersey native can work in a cutter that splits the difference between his running fastball and sweeping slider, which together creates a nice spectrum to work against hitters. Conover is long and lean at 6'5", 185 pounds and utilizes a very loose delivery and a low arm slot that can be difficult to repeat at times. His 14.8% walk rate in 2023 was far too high if he wants to cut it as a starter, and without a reliable changeup, he has multiple factors working against his future in the rotation. He's probably a reliever, where he can let the fastball/slider combination eat and work the cutter in to keep hitters off balance. I do think that he could be very effective in that role. He faced four batters in the Arizona Complex League, striking out two and walking two.

15-436: OF Will Simpson, Washington {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #349. Prospects Live: unranked.
In Will Simpson, the A's get one of the more accomplished hitters in the Pac-12. After a pair of big seasons as a sophomore in 2021 and as a junior in 2022, he rode out on a huge 2023 in which he slashed .335/.418/.643 with 18 home runs and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's a big guy at 6'4", 225 pounds, using his size, strength, and loose right handed swing to tap above average power in games. Meanwhile, he's an aggressive hitter with below average bat to ball ability, which could put a strain on his ability to tap power in games in pro ball. Simpson will need to shore up his approach to ensure his bat plays, and he'll have to do it quickly as a below average defender limited to first base. If the Seattle-area native can learn to better control the strike zone against high quality pitching, his power could make him a platoon or bench bat in at the major league level. Though he's a senior sign, he's young for his class and didn't turn 22 until a month and a half after the draft. He's on the right track so far, slashing .319/.367/.543 with six home runs and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Stockton.

17-496: 2B Colby Halter, Florida {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #452. Prospects Live: #403.
Colby Halter has been known to area scouts around Florida for a long time. He was a nationally known prospect out of Bishop Kenny High School in Jacksonville, alma mater of star relievers Jonathan Papelbon and Darren O'Day, but made it to campus at Florida. Jumping straight into the starting lineup as a true freshman, he hit .302/.379/.453 as a teenager but unfortunately that would be far and away his best season. He was eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but slashed just .240/.338/.380, then came back in 2023 to slash .247/.354/.397 with three home runs and a 34/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. While the shine is gone from his prospect profile, he still stands out as an extremely professional hitter that has risen to the occasion everywhere he's gone. After showing well on the high school showcase circuit and hitting over .300 as a true freshman at Florida, he also snuck in a very strong Cape Cod League performance (.288/.387/.471, 7 HR) last summer and has never looked overmatched at the plate. He makes a lot of contact from the left side, albeit with below average power that has stalled in college. He's got some range on the infield as well, though he's not an explosive defender and will likely be a second baseman going forward. Overall, it's hard to see enough upside for him to carve out a long term role in the big leagues, but it's hard to bet against Halter's advanced bat and feel for the game. He hit very well in the Arizona Complex League but slumped upon an aggressive promotion to High A Lansing, overall slashing .272/.366/.351 with a 36/16 strikeout to walk ratio through 34 games.

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (west)

2022 draftees: 83. Top school: UC Santa Barbara (6)
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/23/2021)

Top draftees:
1-8, Twins: SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly)
1-10, Rockies: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga)
2-59, Cardinals: LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego)
2-61, Yankees: RHP Drew Thorpe (Cal Poly)
3-96, Braves: C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State)
3-98, Blue Jays: OF Alan Roden (Creighton)
3-100, Yankees: RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga)

Moving west of the Mississippi River, our western mid majors couldn't quite match the eastern mid majors' total of 95 draftees last year, but UC Santa Barbara did lead all mid major schools with six draftees and Cal Poly's Brooks Lee and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes marked the two highest drafted mid major players last year. Just like back east, even though we're focusing outside the traditional Power Five conferences, there are still some college baseball juggernauts in the smaller conferences like Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, and UC Santa Barbara, and looking back a little more historically, schools like Rice, Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, and San Diego State have had plenty of success.

Similar to the east, the new age of the transfer portal did put a dent in this class. Two-way player Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU while righty Juaron Watts-Brown transferred from Long Beach State to Oklahoma State, and they would have both been top-three prospects on this list. Luke Keaschall transferred from San Francisco to Arizona State, and he would have also been represented here. So as with the east, while it's not nearly a blanket statement, you are more likely to see late bloomers in these conferences.

This year's iteration includes Jacob Wilson, who for now is the top mid major prospect on either side of the river, headlining a class heavy on hit-over-power types. While you'll only find one player with a plus power grade on this list, and that's arguable, five of the six hitters in the top ten prospects registered a strikeout rate below 15% last year and five of six also batted above .340. The four pitchers on the list, meanwhile, all come with very different profiles. And finally, you'll notice that the top four (and six of the top eight) players drafted from these schools a year ago came from Cal Poly, Gonzaga, or San Diego, and all three of those schools are represented on this top ten list once again for 2023.

1. SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Thousand Oaks, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .358/.418/.585, 0 SB, 7/25 K/BB in 59 games.
Jack Wilson spent over a decade in the majors, mostly with the Pirates, then went on to coach at Thousand Oaks High School in Southern California. He coached some incredible infield talent there, including the younger Max Muncy now of the A's, Roc Riggio now of Oklahoma State, and his son, Jacob Wilson, the best prospect at any mid major school in the country right now. The elder Wilson actually followed his son to Grand Canyon, where he recently signed on to be an assistant coach. Jacob, meanwhile is well established in Phoenix. He is coming off an impressive sophomore season in which he struck out just seven times in 59 games, followed by a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.278/.381/.389) and with the Collegiate National Team (.362/.462/.455). Wilson, of course, stands out for his pure hitting ability, with elite plate discipline that ranks among the best in the country. Very jittery at the plate and on the field, he twitches his bat and taps his feet in the box while awaiting the pitch, but quiets everything down for consistent execution. He's so advanced in the box that it almost looks like he's seeing pitches in slow motion, laying off the ones he doesn't like and rarely missing the ones he does. This is true against fastballs, breaking balls, you name it, and his .381 on-base percentage and 11.9% strikeout rate in a small Cape sample show that it's not just a product of a smaller conference. At this point, he's very skinny and shows below average power, but he can turn on the ball and send it out to the pull side. Despite standing 6'3", that skinny frame does limit his projection a little bit and he'll likely never have better than average power, but his elite ability to recognize pitches, and therefore mistakes, will help him continue to show that ambush power all the way up the ladder. The ultimate projection here is a .300+ hitter with on-base percentages nearing .400, with perhaps 10-15 home runs per year at peak. Defensively, he's very light on his feet at shortstop with strong feel for the position and enough arm strength to make it work, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position with a little luck. Ultimately, there is a good chance a defender with more range pushes him off the position, in which case he could profile very well at second or third base. For now, this is an easy first round profile with a chance to go in the top ten picks if teams believe in his defense and/or his ability to grow into some power.

2. UT Cole Carrigg, San Diego State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 5/8/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 3 HR, .388/.426/.509, 19 SB, 28/12 K/BB in 54 games.
Jacob Wilson played with A's 2021 first round pick Max Muncy at Thousand Oaks High School in the Los Angeles suburbs, while Cole Carrigg was teammates with A's 2020 first round pick Tyler Soderstrom at Turlock High School in the Central Valley. I mentioned that this list contains five hitters that batted over .340 last year, and of those, Carrigg's .388 mark was the best. Not only that, but he kept making consistent, quality contact in the Cape Cod League over the summer where he slashed .325/.388/.411 over a large, 46 game sample. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple, line drive-oriented approach, keeping his eyes behind the ball and shooting it back where it came from. With excellent feel for the barrel, that leads to consistent execution and plenty of hard hit balls around the field. Similar to Wilson, he's 6'3" but he's very skinny, with perhaps even less physical projection than Wilson. The power is safely below average for now and likely always will be, with the potential for fringe-average power if he tacks on additional muscle. Either way, it's not a power-conscious approach, and he'll likely settle in around ten home runs a year at his peak. Defensively, Carrigg is a true utility man. He played seven different positions in the Cape Cod League alone, appearing everywhere except the bottom two on the defensive spectrum – first base and left field. Yes, he even threw 5.2 innings on the mound, striking out seven while allowing just two baserunners against elite hitters. That's much better than his one appearance at San Diego State this year, where Iowa got him for six runs in the only inning he threw. A very good athlete, Carrigg shows the above average speed and plus arm to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that means shortstop, center field, or even catcher. For now, his actions around the dirt aren't quite fluid enough to warrant a long term future at shortstop, but specializing in infield defense and dropping the outfield/mound/catcher's mitt could help him get there if his development system commits to it. Behind the plate, the arm strength and athleticism will buy him time for his finer glovework to catch up, and it's a real possibility. Carrigg has four tools that are comfortably above average or better, and being on the younger side for the class helps his profile as well. It's a very interesting one that could develop in any number of directions.

3. 3B Mike Boeve, Omaha.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 5/5/2002. Hometown: Hastings, NE.
2022: 8 HR, .364/.491/.584, 12 SB, 29/39 K/BB in 57 games.
Three names, three hit-over-power profiles in a row. Similar to Jacob Wilson, Mike Boeve's profile is carried by elite plate discipline that saw him walk 14.6% of the time last year while striking out just 10.9% of the time – leading to nearly a .500 on-base percentage. That strong approach carried over to the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .278/.403/.339 over 41 games. He has a similar approach to hitting as Cole Carrigg, never trying to do too much at the plate and instead happily barreling the ball to all fields with a simple left handed swing. Like Wilson and Carrigg, we're talking below average power from another 6'3" frame for Boeve, but there is reason to believe he may grow into some. For now, his approach can get slappy at times and he tends to leak his power over his front foot while he's focused on simply meeting the baseball with the barrel, but when he turns on the ball while maintaining his leverage, he can get into some sneaky power. That power didn't show up on the Cape, where he had just seven extra base hits (all doubles) in 41 games for a paltry .061 ISO, but I do think he has a chance to tap more in pro ball. He's not quite the defender that Wilson or Carrigg are, with an arm that may be stretched at third base and range that might be stretched at second base, so the bat will have to carry the profile. He does have a shot to be a bat-first infielder that can hit 10-15, perhaps even 15-20, home runs per season with high on-base percentages.

4. 3B Kevin Sim, San Diego.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 2/7/2002. Hometown: San Diego, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .292/.387/.527, 8 SB, 39/35 K/BB in 57 games.
On a list full of contact-first bats, Kevin Sim has the best raw power of the group even if his twelve home runs a year ago won't blow you away. In addition to his strong season at San Diego, he hit five more home runs on the Cape over the summer while slashing .239/.349/.424 over 27 games. Sim packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame, unleashing a powerful, leveraged right handed swing that helps him produce some high exit velocities. Combine that with a very strong approach at the plate (an ongoing theme on this list), and he's consistently putting himself in position to do damage. Unlike his peers on this list, his pure bat to ball skills do lag behind a bit, and while his disciplined approach helped him run a strong 14.5% strikeout rate at San Diego last year, it ballooned to 27.5% on the Cape against more advanced pitching. With some moving parts in his swing, it remains to be seen whether he can catch up to higher level stuff consistently once in pro ball. Still, it's a well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 20-25 or more home runs per season along with potentially high on-base percentages if he can keep his strikeout rate down. Over at third base, he shows the arm strength and natural feel for the position necessary to profile there, but he's not a quick twitch athlete and his range may force him to first base in the long run. There, the emphasis will be even more on his ability to make consistent contact, though he will likely always run high walk rates.

5. RHP Levi Wells, Texas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 9/21/2001. Hometown: La Porte, TX.
2022: 8-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 86/32 K/BB in 91 innings.
Levi Wells was a highly regarded recruit out of the Houston area, starting his college career at Texas Tech but struggling mightily with his command. He transferred to Texas State as a sophomore, where he found his footing in a big way and held down the Saturday starter role all season long as he cut his walk rate all the way from 25% down to 8.2%. That was followed up by a solid run through the Cape Cod League, here he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings as a reliever. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a potentially plus curveball with power and depth as well as a less used cutter and changeup. Despite the loud stuff, though, he didn't miss as many bats as you'd like and ran just a 22.2% strikeout rate at Texas State, though that number spiked to 38.2% in short stints on the Cape. His fastball is fairly straight, playing a bit below its above average velocity, and he does need to get a little more consistent with his curveball. Beyond that, it would behoove him to take a step forward with either the cutter or the changeup to give him a third weapon, as well as continuing to refine his command. The control was ahead of the command in 2022 and that was evident against more experienced bats on the Cape, where his walk rate jumped up to 15.8%. There are numerous small holes in the profile, but nothing is back breaking and they also provide numerous opportunities for him to step forward in his development. He doesn't need to patch all of them, but even incremental progress on things like his fastball movement and his changeup could turn him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Watch for improvement in any number of small areas in 2023.

6. RHP Kade Morris, Nevada.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 170 lbs. Born 6/21/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 7-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 45/18 K/BB in 57 innings.
A cross-town rival of Cole Carrigg's during high school in Turlock, California, Kade Morris wound up at Nevada and transferred to TCU when Nevada head coach T.J. Bruce took an assistant coaching position there. However, before he could make it to Fort Worth, Morris took a metaphorical U turn and he'll remain in Reno for his draft year. He posted nice numbers a year ago as a swingman pitching in some very offense-friendly environments, then took a step forward with three strong starts in the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.08 ERA, 9/6 K/BB in 16.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter, running it up to 97 in short stints while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His sweeping, two plane slider is his best secondary right now, while he also shows a more vertical curveball to steal strikes and keeps a changeup in his back pocket. For now, though, he mostly works off that fastball/slider combination. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound, working from a low three quarters slot with an easy delivery, and he's likely to add more velocity as he fills out his projectable frame. Morris also pounds the strike zone and rarely hurts himself with walks, running a very solid 7.6% walk rate at Nevada a year ago and 9.4% on the Cape. But to this point, the flaw in his profile is that he doesn't miss as many bats in the zone as he needs to. The fastball has some modest life but it's nothing special, while the slider alone is not quite potent enough to rack up high numbers of whiffs on its own. If he wants to convince teams he's a starter at the next level, he'll want to significantly bump up the 18.9% strikeout rate he ran at Nevada last year that dropped to 14.1% on the Cape. Still, with his projection, youth, athleticism, arm strength, and deep arsenal, there is plenty to like going forward and he would probably sneak into the top one hundred picks if the draft were today.

7. 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 3/6/2002. Hometown: Antioch, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .345/.406/.629, 6 SB, 33/19 K/BB in 56 games.
Charles McAdoo didn't play much as a freshman, but he got into the everyday lineup as a sophomore and posted some of the best numbers in the Mountain West. Moving on to the Northwoods League over the summer, he continued to mash to the tune of a .305/.363/.575 line and ten home runs in 43 games. Very aggressive in the box, he doesn't like to waste time in his at bats and will jump on the first pitch he likes, leading to just a 7.3% walk rate at San Jose State and 8.9% in the Northwoods League. Meanwhile, his very strong feel for the barrel means that he was still very effective at keeping his strikeout rates down, rarely missing that pitch he decided to jump on with lots of hard contact around the field. Packing a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, he works with a compact operation in the box and a leveraged swing that helps him produce above average raw power. His approach is geared towards smoking line drives to all fields, but he's certainly not afraid to turn on the ball and send it deep into the left field seats. Going forward into pro ball, it will be important to keep an eye on that aggressive approach, as his strikeout rate rose from 12.6% at San Jose State to 21.1% in the Northwoods League. Pro pitchers will take advantage of that propensity to chase, so his ability to make adjustments could make or break his profile. It's a profile reliant on the bat, as he's a fringy defender that should be adequate at second base.

8. RHP Owen Wild, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 230 lbs. Born 7/30/2002. Hometown: Gig Harbor, WA.
2022: 9-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 83/24 K/BB in 74.1 innings.
Last year, Gonzaga had a trio of pitchers go in the top three rounds in first rounder Gabriel Hughes (Rockies) and third rounders Trystan Vrieling (Yankees) and William Kempner (Giants). They're not done yet, as Owen Wild looks ready to take that next step and become the next Bulldog ace. Wild made just two appearances as a freshman, but was very effective in a swingman role as a sophomore and continued to impress in the Alaska Summer League, where he posted a 1.82 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings. Wild's fastball has ticked up into the low 90's now, reaching the mid 90's at best with flat plane and some ride. He has a slurvy breaking ball that shows well when he keeps it down, and added power could make it an above average or better pitch. Wild also shows an above average changeup with great fade, though he does need to be more consistent with his arm speed when he throws it. The 6'2" righty is physically developed and works from a drop and drive delivery, helping him work from a low center of gravity that makes his pitches play up. He's also very young for the class, not turning 21 until after the draft, which gives him plenty of time to hone his arsenal. All three pitches have the potential to become above average or better, and he shows above average command to boot. I like this one and I think he has a very good shot to become a mid-rotation starter.

9. RHP Bryce Warrecker, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'8", 240 lbs. Born 9/13/2001. Hometown: Santa Barbara, CA.
2022: 2-0, 5.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30/5 K/BB in 26.1 innings.
Bryce Warrecker hasn't done much in two years at Cal Poly, holding a 5.61 career ERA and a .298 opponents' batting average over fewer than sixty innings, but few players did as much to elevate their profile in the Cape Cod League as Warrecker did. Over eleven games (seven starts), he put up a 2.03 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 40 innings, enough to be named the Cape Cod League Outstanding Pitcher. A towering presence at 6'8", he comes from a low three quarters slot that gives hitters a unique look and lays the foundation for a profile that works off of deception. He doesn't work with much velocity, sitting in the low 90's and rarely popping above that range, and brings a couple of quality secondaries. His slider varies between a sweeper and more of a downer pitch depending on what he needs, while his changeup looks above average with late drop. He allowed a lot of loud contact at Cal Poly and ran a modest 22.6% strikeout rate on the Cape even as he kept runs and baserunners off the board, so he'll likely have a low margin for error in pro ball. The good news is that he also pounds the strike zone with above average command, making for a very solid back-end starter profile. There is a lot to like here even if the upside is a bit limited.

10. SS John Peck, Pepperdine.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 165 lbs. Born 7/18/2002. Hometown: Moorpark, CA.
2022: 7 HR, .361/.417/.578, 7 SB, 38/14 K/BB in 40 games.
John Peck is sure to be a polarizing prospect in this class, with a lot of underlying strengths and weaknesses. He raked at Pepperdine this past spring, slashing .361/.417/.578 sandwiched around an April injury that kept him out for close to a month. He moved on to the Cape over the summer, where he struggled immensely to the tune of a .182/.248/.245 slash line and a 31.8% strikeout rate over 45 games including just two hits in his final ten games. Peck has worked to get stronger and, when he's going right, unleashes a barrage of line drives to all fields that helped him hit .361 at Pepperdine last year. He can really smoke the ball, with strong batted ball data that could point to plus power in the tank if he learns how to tap it. For now, he doesn't turn on the ball often enough to do so and with a strikeout rate above 20% at Pepperdine and above 30% on the Cape, he'll also have to improve his pitch selection in tandem with a more power-conscious approach should he choose to pursue it. Defensively, he's very smooth with the glove around the infield and has a better chance to stick at shortstop than anyone else on this list. It's a very interesting profile that could really thrive in the right development system, but there's some boom/bust there as well. Like Owen Wild, he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until after the draft.