2019 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

First five rounds: George Kirby (1-20), Brandon Williamson (2-59), Isaiah Campbell (CBB-76), Levi Stoudt (3-97), Tim Elliott (4-126), Austin Shenton (5-156)
Also notable: Michael Limoncelli (6-186), Adam Macko (7-216), Carter Bins (11-336)

The Mariners went pitching heavy in this draft, selecting arms with each of their first five picks and eight of their first nine. Some of them, like George Kirby and Isaiah Campbell, I really liked, though others, like Brandon Williamson, I found more questionable. Regardless, the Mariners rebuilt what was an extremely shallow group of pitchers prior to the drafting of Logan Gilbert and trade for Jordan Sheffield last year (with Gilbert and Sheffield moving in opposite directions on prospect charts since then). Interestingly, the Mariners, who are Major League Baseball's northernmost team, went heavy on northern players this year despite highly-drafted players traditionally coming from more southerly areas. In order, their picks originally grew up in: New York, Minnesota, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Washington, New York, and Alberta. Lastly, I want to make a quick mention of them drafting two players from North Greenville University in South Carolina with fantastic baseball names: Kipp Rollings in the 24th round and Utah Jones in the 29th round.

1-20: RHP George Kirby (Elon, my rank: 17)
I really like this pick. George Kirby put up a great sophomore season against mediocre competition at Elon last year with a 2.89 ERA and a 96/27 strikeout to walk ratio, then got better this season by posting a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and an absurd 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings, again against Elon's mediocre competition. He was also exceptional as a reliever in the elite Cape Cod League posting a 1.38 ERA and a 24/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 innings. Scouts look for "starter traits" when scouting pitchers, those being such things as durability, projectability, command, stuff, depth of arsenal, ability to repeat delivery, etc. Well, in a draft class that was really short on pitching at the very top, Kirby exhibits more starter traits than just about anyone else. He controls the strike zone exceptionally well (that's how you end up with almost 18 strikeouts for every walk), but unlike most command/control types, the Westchester County (NYC suburbs) native has good stuff to boot. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds both a good curveball and a good slider as well as a changeup, and at a sturdy 6'3", he's both durable and projectable. While his stuff doesn't jump off the page, it's legitimate and plays up because of his command. In a game becoming ever more dependent on the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, and home runs), Kirby will fit right in because in 88 innings he struck out 107, walked six, and allowed three home runs. That whole profile gives him the ceiling of a #2 starter in an Aaron Nola sense, and he comes without much risk just because he has very few holes in his game. He signed for $3.24 million, right at slot.

2-59: LHP Brandon Williamson (Texas Christian, my rank: 104)
While I really liked the Kirby pick, I think this one is a bit riskier. The 6'6" lefty transferred from Northern Iowa Area Community College to TCU this year, then posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an 89/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings. Williamson, from the small town of Sherburn, Minnesota, has a lot of the building blocks for future success but has not put it together yet. The phrase "6'6" lefty" make scouts drool, and when he's going right, Williamson sits in the low to mid 90's with a good slider as well as a curve and a changeup from an easy, repeatable delivery, but both his command and the quality of his stuff can be inconsistent. If the Mariners can help iron out whatever is keeping him from being his best every inning, they might have a mid rotation starter on their hands, but he has a lot of work to do for a college pitcher selected in this range. He signed for $925,000, which was $265,000 below slot.

CBB-76: RHP Isaiah Campbell (Arkansas, my rank: 36)
Make that two out of three picks here that I really, really like. Just as Williamson was considered a potential top five rounds pick in 2018, when Williamson was a sophomore at NIACC and Campbell was a junior at Arkansas. However, after posting a 4.26 ERA and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, Campbell elected to return to Fayetteville for his senior season, a decision made easier because with an August birthday, he was young for his class. The decision paid off because he went 12-1 and dropped his ERA to 2.13 while posting a 0.92 WHIP and a 125/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings against tough competition, a result of his vastly improved command. Born in Portugal, the Kansas City native is a 6'4" right hander that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which he gets good downhill plane on due to his high arm slot. He also adds a good slider that gets swings and misses, though his curveball and changeup still have some catching up to do. His command was an issue last year, but because of his huge improvement there, he now has a better shot at sticking in the rotation and could be a mid-rotation guy. I like the upside here even though he turns 22 in August. He hasn't signed yet, with slot value at $818,200.

3-97: RHP Levi Stoudt (Lehigh, my rank: 134)
Levi Stoudt is an interesting prospect, one who comes with a few holes in his game but who also can look like a legitimate starting pitcher at others. His ERA has gone up significantly over his three seasons at Lehigh, starting at 2.34 as a freshman before jumping to 3.03 as a sophomore, and this year he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 69/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.2 innings against mediocre competition. He also survived the Cape Cod League, where he put up a 4.26 ERA and a 26/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 25.1 innings. Stoudt comes in with some arm strength, showing a low 90's fastball that can move into the mid 90's at times, though his secondaries are more inconsistent. His changeup is his best, as it shows some drop and can miss bats, and his slider flashes good shape but can flatten out. He also has a curveball that can look average at times but that can also get loopy. Some question his size at 6'1" and the fact that he never threw more than 65 innings in a season at Lehigh, but he has an athletic delivery and has average command. The Eastern Pennsylvania native has the upside of a #3 or a #4 starter, though he needs to get more consistent with all of his secondaries and prove his durability. Slot value is $599,100 and he has not signed yet.

4-126: RHP Tim Elliott (Georgia, unranked)
Elliott didn't pitch a whole heck of a lot over his first two seasons at Georgia, but the Bulldogs turned him loose in the rotation this year – one of the best rotations in college baseball that also included Cardinals' third rounder Tony Locey and potential 2020 first rounders Emerson Hancock and Cole Wilcox – and he posted a 2.38 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 72/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. Elliott has fairly similar stuff to Stoudt, starting with a low 90's fastball and adding a good changeup as well as a slider and a curveball, neither of which are swing and miss pitches at this point. He also has average command, so he's not a control artist but he's also not wild. Hailing from the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, Elliott is 6'1" like Stoudt and while his big junior season at Georgia make him the more proven commodity, his delivery has a lot of moving parts in contrast to Stoudt's easy, athletic delivery. Elliott probably has less upside but he has a chance at being a #4 or a #5 starter. He signed for $400,000, which was $51,800 below slot, and he has thrown four shutout innings over his first two appearances at short season Everett, striking out six while allowing only three baserunners.

5-156: 3B Austin Shenton (Florida International, unranked)
After taking five straight pitchers, the Mariners pivoted to a bat in the fifth round, grabbing FIU third baseman Austin Shenton. Shenton opened eyes with an excellent .349/.450/.490 run through the Cape Cod League that also included four home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio, though he started slowly this season for FIU before heating up as the season wore on. In the end, his .330/.425/.513 line with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games looked pretty good but was not quite up to expectations against Conference-USA pitching. Despite a swing that includes a deep hand load and a bit of an upward angle on his swing, he's actually hit over power and held a reasonably low 16.3% strikeout rate this season. The strong run through the Cape Cod League helps project him for high averages and some walks to give him strong on-base percentages, though he'll likely never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season at his best. His defense is also questionable, as he is just adequate at third base and may be forced to another position. Overall, he profiles as a bat-first bench player. Interestingly, despite playing at FIU, Shenton is from the Seattle area, making this a homecoming for him. He signed at slot for $336,600 and is slashing .231/.333/.269 with eight strikeouts to one walk over his first seven games at Everett.

6-186: RHP Michael Limoncelli (Horseheads HS [NY], my rank: 103)
Limoncelli's profile is pretty straightforward; he's a cold weather arm from Upstate New York with two potential plus pitches who is old for his class and is recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 6'2" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good two-plane curveball, both of which he can command. Cold weather arms like Limoncelli, who grew up an hour west of Binghamton, typically have less development under their belts due to less outside practice and are therefore given the benefit of the doubt when being compared against players from places like Florida and Texas, though the fact that Limoncelli already turned 19 in May probably takes some of that slack away from him. He has a ton of upside and could be a mid-rotation starter, but he also comes with a lot of risk given that he won't get into professional games until he's 20 years old next spring or summer. Slot value is $259,400, but it may take more than that to buy him out of his Coastal Carolina commitment.

7-216: LHP Adam Macko (Vauxhall Academy [AB], unranked)
A round after popping Limoncelli from Upstate New York, the Mariners went for an even colder-weather arm in Adam Macko, who grew up west of Edmonton, Alberta but attended the Vauxhall Academy of Baseball in rural Vauxhall, Alberta. That's cold. Anyways, Macko does not throw hard – his fastball rarely scrapes 90 – but the 6' lefty has excellent feel to spot all of his pitches, including his offspeeds, around the zone. Those offspeeds are just average for now, as he shows feel to spin a curveball with good shape but without much power as well as a decent changeup. He has a lot of work to do if he wants to crack a major league rotation, but if he can maintain this command, he should be able to succeed by simply bumping his fastball from the 86-89 range to the 88-92 range and sharpening his secondaries a little, obviously easier said than done. The Mariners are hoping that getting him off the windswept Northern Plains will help. Slot value is $203,400, and he has a commitment to Purdue that he has not yet been signed away from.

11-336: C Carter Bins (Fresno State, my rank: 113)
Bins was talented enough to go in the top five rounds, but signability pushed him here to the eleventh, where he signed for a fifth round bonus of $350,000. He's a defense-first catcher who slashed .301/.372/.526 as a sophomore at Fresno State before dropping to .280/.385/.427 with six home runs and a 48/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games this year. He shows some loft in his swing but the bat speed is just average, so his power will likely be mostly to the pull side, but he does have a track record for hitting the ball hard. His real calling card is his defense, as he is an all-around asset behind the plate that will not only stick back there but provide positive value without much of a doubt. If he can hit at all, he'll land a back-up job at the major league level, and if he can start to generate a little more power while maintaining his on-base percentage, he could conceivably wind up a starter. However, the bat has a bit of a ways to go if he does indeed plan to end up starting. The Fairfield, California native's $350,000 bonus counts for $225,000 against the Mariners' bonus pool, but their savings on Williamson and Elliott as well as tenth rounder Kyle Hill help them absorb that. Through five games with Elliott and Shenton at Everett, he's slashing .211/.318/.211 with ten strikeouts to three walks.

2019 Draft Preview: Left Handed Pitchers

There aren't as many left handers as right handers, so I combined the list here. As with the right handers, none of these guys figure to go in the top five picks, and it's very possible, even likely, that only two get drafted in the first round. There is especially a dearth of high schoolers here, with only two or three expected to go on day one and all coming with signability questions, though the college left handers have much more depth. 

Tier I: Nick Lodolo, Zack Thompson

The first tier consists of two major conference starters, with no high schoolers cracking it. Nick Lodolo took a huge step forward with TCU this year, posting a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings before the draft. After posting ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32 over his first two seasons in Fort Worth, respectively, Lodolo has gotten more consistent with his mechanics and his command this year. He's 6'6" and throws in the low 90's, adding a solid curve and changeup, but he's got the best of both worlds in that he's a proven major conference starter as well as a tall lefty with projection remaining. He could be a #2 starter at best but looks more like a #3 and will likely go in the top ten picks, with the Reds at #7 looking like the best bet. Over at Kentucky, Zack Thompson put an inconsistent 2018 behind him by posting a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 130/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings this year. He's 6'3" and has been creeping up lists all spring long, using his low 90's fastball and full set of secondaries to carve up SEC hitters. His command has been more consistent this spring as well, though it still plays closer to average, and he overall looks like a #3 or solid #4 starter. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, likely in the top half.

Tier II: Hunter Barco, Blake Walston, Ethan Small

These three pitchers couldn't be more different. Hunter Barco was an early top prospect in this class with an exceptional showing on the summer showcase circuit back in 2017, but he was more inconsistent in 2018 before righting the ship a bit in Spring 2019. He's a 6'4" high schooler from Jacksonville who throws a from a lower arm slot, showing a low 90's fastball, a slider that flashes plus when he doesn't come around it, and a good splitter. His mechanics have been all over the place and dictate his success, so getting him to use a consistent arm slot will be the first thing on his drafting team's list. He figures to go at the end of the first round or in the comp round based on talent, but he'll be a tough sign away from Florida. Blake Walston is an uber-projectable arm out of Wilmington, North Carolina, standing 6'4" with plenty of room to add weight to his athletic frame. He can run his fastball into the low 90's but fades during his starts and can end up in the high 80's at times, also showing an inconsistent curve with good shape but without power at this point. He also has a slider and a changeup, and his command has been pretty good for a raw, projectable high school arm. He'll be a tough sign away from NC State and he needs a lot of work, but he has high upside and could be an ace when all is said and done. He looks like a comp or second rounder, but signability might affect that. Ethan Small is a 22 year old redshirt junior at Mississippi State, but he has been the best pitcher in college baseball this season. In 16 starts before the draft, Small posted a 1.88 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 160/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings against some of the top competition in the nation. His fastball only sits around 90 and his secondary stuff is closer to average, but his command and feel for pitching are so good that even the SEC's best hitters can't figure him out. There is deception in his delivery and he varies his timing, and if anybody can make a 90 MPH fastball work in pro ball, it will be Small, who figures to go in the second round and has #4 or #5 starter projection.

Tier III: Spencer Jones, Tommy Henry, Erik Miller, T.J. Sikkema, Brandon Williamson, Graeme Stinson, Matt Cronin

This is where the deep group of college lefties gets going. We'll start with Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones, a two-way player who looked to be a first rounder before an elbow injury cost him most of his senior season. He shows power at the plate but on the mound, the 6'7" lefty shows a low 90's fastball and a good curveball that should be solid building blocks. He's much more about projectability than present stuff, but he has some of the highest upside in the class, so it's hard to peg his draft position. On the college side, Michigan's Tommy Henry has been inconsistent this spring but shows fringe first round stuff at his best. This year, he had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 111/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.2 innings, showing really well early in the season but seeing his stuff flatten out at times later on. He's 6'3" and sits in the low 90's with a slider and changeup that can look plus at their best, though as I said before, they flattened out at times later in the season, and his command has played up well this year. He looks like a mid rotation starter at times but at others, his stuff looks fringy in terms of being a major league starter. He looks like a second rounder. Stanford's Erik Miller has also been inconsistent, posting a 3.15 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 97/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings this season. He's 6'5" and shows great stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and adding a good slider that generates swings and misses, but he loses his mechanics at times and that leads to bouts of wildness. He struggled in the Cape Cod League, but a team that thinks it can clean him up could help him reach his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. He's a second or third rounder. Missouri's T.J. Sikkema has not been inconsistent, putting up a 1.32 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 101/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, rivaling Small at times as the best pitcher in the SEC. He's just six feet tall but sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a good slider that also helped him put up a 1.72 ERA in the Cape Cod League. He's extremely competitive on the mound, which helps his stuff play up, his command is solid, and he won't be 21 until July, so he has a chance to outplay his #5 starter projection. He looks like a second rounder. Behind Lodolo in the TCU rotation, Brandon Williamson has been inconsistent but shows big stuff at times. He's 6'5" and posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an 89/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings. He shows a low to mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a smooth delivery, but he's been oddly inconsistent with both the level of his stuff and his command. A 6'5" lefty with velocity and an easy delivery is a scout's dream, but he's been inconsistent enough that he may be forced to the bullpen and may last until the third round. He has a high ceiling if he can put it all together. Duke's Graeme Stinson had a chance to go in the top ten picks with a good run through the ACC, but instead, it was a disaster. Stinson's transition to the rotation lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury, in which he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. He's 6'5" and shows premium stuff at his best, running his fastball into the mid 90's with a wipeout slider that may be the best in the class, and that helped him put together one fantastic start in the Cape Cod League (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, there were durability concerns even before his hamstring injury, and now it looks like he'll be a reliever only in pro ball. Once healthy, he could move quickly in that role and he looks like a second rounder. Lastly, Arkansas's Matt Cronin is a pure reliever, having put up a 2.00 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He's 6'2" but with a running low to mid 90's fastball and a very good slider, he'll move quickly through the minors and could be a set-up man or even a closer. However, his command is fringy, so he's more of a solid relief prospect than an elite one. He should go in the second or third round.

Others: Ben Brecht, Antoine Kelly, Mason Feole, Avery Short, Hayden Mullins