Showing posts with label Wyatt Langford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wyatt Langford. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers knew what they wanted and they went and got it. First off, they started with arguably the top player in the entire class in Wyatt Langford, who according to some evaluators is on par with or even a tick ahead of Dylan Crews as a prospect. After that, Texas leaned heavily into the pitching ranks, especially on hard throwers. Numerous draftees are touching triple digits or getting close to them, though many also come with significant reliever risk. Beyond Langford, it's really a boom or bust class, but it makes for a lot of interesting profiles in the meantime. The Rangers did manage all this despite not having a second or third round pick due to signing Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: OF Wyatt Langford, Florida {video}
Slot value: $7.7 million. Signing bonus: $8 million ($302,000 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #3. Prospects Live: #3.
It's not often that the #4 overall pick signs above slot value, but Wyatt Langford is worth every penny and more. More or less the consensus #3 prospect in the class, I had him #2 on my board just a hair behind #1 Dylan Crews. Langford is a major success story. Hailing from the small town of Trenton, Florida (population 2015, but enough to also produce country music singer Easton Corbin), he stayed home to attend the nearby University of Florida and rode the bench as a freshman, picking up just four at bats. However, he broke into the lineup in a big way with a massive sophomore campaign (.355/.447/.719, 26 HR), enough to push himself into top five discussions heading into the season. Langford only got better in 2023, slashing .373/.498/.784 with 21 home runs and a 44/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games to put himself on near equal footing with the more famous Dylan Crews. There are no holes in this profile no matter how hard you look unless you want to ding him for being a right handed hitting outfielder (like Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Ronald Acuña, and of course Crews). He's packed full of lean muscle at 6'1", with long arms that help channel that strength into at least plus raw power, if not plus-plus, that he taps consistently in games, leading to 47 home runs in 130 games over the past two seasons. It's a clean, leveraged, explosive right handed swing that's about as pretty as they come. He gets the barrel long through the zone, extends with ease, and puts natural loft on the ball all while maintaining big time bat speed to make the ball disappear. At the same time, Langford is an extremely disciplined hitter that rarely chases and makes a ton of contact, profiling as a plus pure hitter even if you take the power away. It's the kind of profile that can produce 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a .400 clip in the majors. Previously thought to be a stretch in center field, his athleticism shined through in 2023 as he showed off plus run times that could help him stick in center field long term. He might slide back over to an outfield corner if he slows down at all with age, but the bat is truly special and he'll still be above average in either corner with a strong arm. Overall, it's an MVP-caliber ceiling with the floor of a very solid regular who sticks in the big leagues for a long time. It's hard not to love this pick at fourth overall because Langford very well could come out of this draft as the best player in the class. So far, he's off to the most impressive start of anybody in this class not named Nolan Schanuel (though I'm still buying Langford way ahead of Schanuel), slashing .359/.471/.697 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games, becoming the only player in the draft class not named Schanuel to reach AAA.

4-108: RHP Skylar Hales, Santa Clara {video}
Slot value: $621,700. Signing bonus: $565,000 ($56,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #179. Prospects Live: #223.
Over one hundred picks later, the Rangers finally got to pick again and brought in a flame throwing reliever from the West Coast. Skylar Hales jumped back into the Santa Clara bullpen this year after spending 2022 as a starter, and in 2023 he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 66/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings. Hales consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch triple digits, with running life that makes it really tough to square up. He mostly lives and dies with that fastball, but he does flash a nice slider with sweeping action that could become a weapon with a little more refinement. Adding a cutter to split the difference between his running fastball and sweeping slider could help create more deception, but his delivery already provides some. Hale hides the ball well and releases from a lower slot, providing that combination of power and funk that teams like to find in their relievers. He pounds the strike zone with average command, which you don't always see from pure relief prospects. The Rangers love the fastball and will get to work on developing his secondaries, which could make him a solid reliever at the major league level. He showed well in his pro debut, posting a 4.22 ERA and an 11/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

5-144: RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami {video}
Slot value: $437,900. Signing bonus: $437,900.
My rank: #102. MLB Pipeline: #212. Baseball America: #228. Prospects Live: #153.
Alejandro Rosario was a potential top one hundred pick out of high school in 2020, but he was raw and his asking price plus the shortened draft pushed him to college at Miami. The results haven't really been there in Coral Gables, so if you care about college pitchers' ERA, look away. After posting a 5.21 ERA as a freshman and a 7.05 ERA as a sophomore, he put up a career worst 7.11 ERA in 2023 to go along with a 91/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings. Obviously, you're not buying the performance here, but rather the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out at 99, and Rosario maintains his velocity through his starts. His slider flashes plus with downer action, while his changeup has steadily developed and looks like a solid weapon in its own right. It's a pretty nasty three pitch mix, and he shouldn't get hit as hard as he does. Part of the issue may be a lack of deception, as Rosario opens early and gives hitters a long look at the ball out of his hand. He also shows fringy command and leaves a lot of balls over the plate. The Rangers are going to get creative with his development, certainly looking to mix up his pitch usage and make him a little less predictable from a hitter's perspective. There's a ton of upside here and more and more, teams are realizing that past performance, especially from pitchers, is not a strong predictor of future performance.

6-171: RHP Caden Scarborough, Harmony HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $339,400. Signing bonus: $515,000 ($175,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Caden Scarborough is way off the beaten path, having gone unranked on every major public draft board. That's never scared the Rangers before, and they popped him away from a Dallas Baptist commitment for late fourth round money. This is a total projection play. Scarborough currently sits around 90 with his fastball, usually topping around 91-92 in games with flat plane from a lower slot. His curveball looks promising with nice depth but needs to add significant power to miss bats in pro ball. Like I said though, the projection here is the draw. I've seen him variously listed anywhere from 6'5" to 6'7", and he's rail thin with room to add thirty or forty pounds to his towering frame. There's no sure things when it comes to pitching, but it's pretty much a lock that Scarborough will add significant velocity to both his fastball and his curveball. He's also a great athlete and a decorated basketball player, which should help him stay coordinated on the mound despite those long levers. The Rangers will need to be very patient, first stuffing him full of steaks and protein shakes to add weight while helping him round out his arsenal in order to remain a starter. This is a big time sleeper pick but the Rangers have hit on these before.

7-201: RHP Izack Tiger, Butler JC [KS] {video}
Slot value: $265,500. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($85,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #393.
I'm sorry, but is Izack Tiger not the coolest name in the draft? If not #1, it's certainly up there with Maui Ahuna and Carson Roccaforte. Regardless, he's got the stuff to match. A native of the eastern OKC suburb of Del City, Oklahoma, he has spent three seasons at Butler Community College in southern Kansas and finished off a solid 2023 where he posted a 3.93 ERA and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.2 innings. The fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's and has been up to triple digits at times, coming in from a high slot with riding action. His hard cutter/slider comes in with upper 80's velocity and tight break, and he adds a solid changeup to boot. Everything is firm and he may need to incorporate something softer to change speeds more effectively, but you can't teach his kind of arm strength. Tiger attacks the strike zone but shows fringy command, often getting hit hard over the plate including on the Cape shortly before the draft, where his sharp 15/5 strikeout to walk ratio contrasted a bit with his .389 opponents' batting average. Already 22 and a half, he probably profiles better as a reliever in pro ball where he can simply seek to overpower hitters with his high octane stuff, and the Rangers could move him quickly in that role. In a brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed three runs (one earned) over four innings while striking out four and walking two.

8-231: C Julian Brock, Louisiana-Lafayette {video}
Slot value: $210,600. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($44,400 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #122. Baseball America: #371. Prospects Live: #275.
We get our first Texan here in the eighth round. Julian Brock is a product Fulshear, Houston's equivalent to Celina or Melissa in that it was a small town until very recently when it began to explode with brand new master planned communities. He headed east for college and spent four years at Louisiana-Lafayette, where he barely played as an underclassman before establishing himself as the starting catcher as a junior in 2022. He had his best year yet in 2023, slashing .315/.435/.559 with eleven home runs and a 53/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Standing 6'3", he comes with the power you'd expect from his big, strong frame, with the ability to produce some real moonshots to the pull side. He has become much more patient as he's progressed, helping him find good pitches to launch and driving up his on-base percentage. There are some questions about his ability to handle higher quality stuff, with some swing and miss present in the zone due to his power-conscious approach, but the offensive bar is lower for catchers and he's got the power/patience combination to hold his own in the lineup even if he hits for a low average. Brock is also a strong defender with natural feel for catching, showing off an above average arm that plays up due to his short arm stroke and ability to quickly pop out of the crouch. All of that points to a solid backup catcher profile, with the chance for more if he can make enough contact to tap his power regularly in games.

10-291: RHP Case Matter, Washington {video}
Slot value: $170,100. Signing bonus: $155,000 ($15,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #362. Prospects Live: #206.
Case Matter gives the Rangers yet another hard thrower. After serving as a swingman in 2022, Washington pushed him back to the bullpen in 2023 where he posted a 3.91 ERA and a 34/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, which is nothing special but as with most of their picks this year, the Rangers are buying the stuff. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with riding life from a lower release point, making it extremely difficult to square up. Matter can really rip through a breaking ball, too, but mostly pitches off his fastball and he hasn't always been consistent with his curveball and slider. To this point, everything has played down because he has below average command stemming from a high effort delivery with significant head whack in which he falls hard off to the glove side in his follow through. That will keep him in the bullpen long term, but with that high octane right arm, the Rangers think they can put him together just enough to be effective. If he can more effectively incorporate his offspeed stuff into his arsenal and show even fringy command, he'll be a big league reliever. In his brief Arizona Complex League stint, he allowed one run over three innings while striking out four and walking none.

11-321: OF Maxton Martin, Southridge HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Rangers used the rest of their available funds to go a bit over slot and sign Maxton Martin away from an Oregon commitment. The younger brother of Pirates prospect Mason Martin, who has hit well over one hundred minor league home runs and is currently in AAA, Maxton put his own name on the map with a strong spring. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, showing off explosive bat speed that translates to plus raw power already. However, he has struggled to tap it against higher quality pitching, where his noisy load with a hitch makes it tough for him to get on plane with the baseball. He looked better this spring, but the transition to pro ball may not be smooth immediately. He's a decent runner that should lock down a corner outfield spot, and the Rangers hope more exposure and cleaned up mechanics will help him tap his prodigious power in games. There's some nice upside here even if he's a ways away. In ten games in the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .243/.378/.378 with one home run and an 11/8 strikeout to walk ratio.

12-351: RHP Paul Bonzagni, Southern Illinois {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Paul Bonzagni gives the Rangers another pitching prospect from North Texas. He grew up in the Grapevine, which sits between Dallas and Fort Worth and attended high school at local powerhouse Southlake Carroll. Originally committed to St. Edward's University in Austin, he switched gears and instead headed to Weatherford JC west of Fort Worth, then transferred out to Southern Illinois University this year. The numbers were decent at SIU, where he posted a 4.94 ERA and a 50/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, but he pushed his name up draft boards with a strong turn in the Cape Cod League right before the draft in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings. Bonzagni sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 97 in short stints with running action, giving him very similar velocity to many other pitchers in this Rangers class. His short, sweeping slider looks like an above average pitch at this point and he can effectively turn over a changeup as well, giving him a really nice three pitch mix. Bonzagni pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen for SIU and never went more than two innings on the Cape, so it will be interesting to see what the Rangers do here. The 6'3" righty has a pretty easy delivery and shows close to average command, so they could run him out as a starter to see what happens. If not, he'll be a tough matchup as a reliever with that well-rounded arsenal and a semblance of command, potentially fitting into a long relief role. He looked sharp in his pro debut, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Down East.

13-381: RHP William Privette, College of Charleston {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #252. Prospects Live: #164.
It may be the thirteenth round, but I find William Privette to be a very interesting arm. He was untouchable as a sophomore at College of Charleston in 2022 (0.91 ERA, 80/15 K/BB) and continued to throw well in 2023, when he posted a 2.36 ERA and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings. The velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 96 while throwing in short stints, but it's extremely deceptive. Privette leans back as he breaks towards the plate, hiding the ball well despite longer arm action and coming from an extreme over the top release point. The fastball itself has huge riding action, making it a true invisiball. For now, he pitches almost exclusively off that fastball, also working in a solid changeup and a decent curveball. The 6'6" righty pounds the strike zone with average command, though it did take a slight step back in 2023. Going forward, he'll need to take a step forward with at least one of his offspeed offerings, but between his deceptive fastball, command, and size, the Rangers have a lot to get creative with and I think he'll work his way into the Texas bullpen sooner rather than later. He did get blown up a bit in a brief Arizona Complex League debut, allowing seven runs (five earned) over two innings, striking out two but walking eight.

Monday, April 10, 2023

2023 MLB Draft: an updated look at the Nationals' #2 Pick

Before the season started, I explored ten options for the Nationals with the second overall pick while also taking a look at their recent draft history. A few months later, the picture remains fairly similar, but with the draft fast approaching in three months, we can start to feel a little more comfortable predicting those names. 

At this point, I would put about six names firmly in the mix - a quartet of SEC stars and a pair of high school outfielders. Of course, things can and will change between now and July, but if the draft were today, I would give it a ~90% shot that the pick is one of these six names. There's always the chance they could go under slot and save money to spend later, but given the fact that they won't be able to pick higher than tenth next season, plus their history of usually paying at least full slot in the first round, I doubt it. Let's take a look at those six names.

Number next to every player indicates their rank on my most recent draft board update.

OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)
Dylan Crews entered the season as more or less the top prospect in the class, and he's only cemented it so far this spring by slashing .510/.645/.882 through 31 games (yes, you read that right). It will be very, very difficult for the Pirates to pass up his generational bat with the first overall pick, but if they do, the Nationals should be all over him. Crews hits the ball harder than anybody in college baseball, spraying scorching line drives around the the field with incredible consistency, giving him potential 70 grade power in pro ball. Additionally, he's taken a step forward this spring as a pure hitter, controlling the strike zone with a professional approach and rarely missing on pitches in the zone. On the rare occasions in which he does, he makes great adjustments throughout his at bats and won't get fooled twice, which keeps the strikeouts way down. He hammers velocity, recognizes and waits back on offspeed, and is more or less impossible to get out. While his bat stands out more than his glove, he's a solid defender that has shown well in center field this spring and would fit well in a corner with that deep crop of young outfielders the Nationals possess. He should fly through the minors and could be in Washington by the end of the 2024 season with the potential for 30+ home runs annually and .400+ on-base percentages.

OF Wyatt Langford, Florida (#2)
While they're built differently as athletes and get to their production in different ways, the end result for Wyatt Langford is starkly similar to Crews and would make for a great consolation prize if the Pirates do indeed nab the LSU outfielder. After barely playing as a freshman, he has torn up the SEC over the past two seasons with huge numbers and shows no sign of slowing down now that he's back from a lower body injury that cost him a couple weeks in March. Like Crews, Langford shows plus-plus raw power from the right side and taps it consistently in games, though Crews gets to his peak exit velocities a little more frequently. Which of course is no knock on Langford, and more just another example of how elite Crews is. While Crews is whippier and more rotational in the box, Langford's power comes more from pure strength and leverage. Like Crews, he has great feel for the barrel and controls his at bats extremely well, rarely chasing and forcing pitchers to come to him. It's a plus hit tool that could help him tap 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a high clip, hitting in the middle of the order. He also has a similar defensive profile to Crews, sliding over to center field this year now that the elite Jud Fabian is gone to the Orioles' system. He's a surprisingly strong runner for his size and might have a better shot to stick in center than Crews, though Crews has a better arm and would provide more value in a corner.

RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#4)
At this point, Paul Skenes feels like the most likely pick here as an elite, safe bet, high ceiling college arm with a traditional profile. He has consistently gotten better and better and better and now looks like a potential generational talent on the mound. In fact, if pitchers weren't so inherently risky nowadays, I would have him as the #2 prospect on this list. A transfer from Air Force, he has turned himself into a monster on the mound for LSU and through eight starts he has a 1.14 ERA and a 91/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings, good for a 52.9% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, the highest strikeout rate of any college pitcher taken in the first round last year was Cooper Hjerpe's 39.6% - and his 161 strikeouts led all of Division I. He does it with a fastball that now sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 102, and he can run it or let it ride depending on the situation but usually opts for the former. Skenes' slider has taken a massive step forward this season as well, adding significant sweep while maintaining its hard upper 80's velocity. It's a pitch that could strike out major league hitters today. This spring, he's also shown feel to work it into more of a power curve with short, vertical bite. His changeup has long been a star pitch as well and profiles as plus with great fading action, but he's gone more to the slider this spring because, well, nobody can hit it no matter how much he throws it. With a big, durable frame, above average command, and that service academy work ethic, he seems like as safe a bet as you can get from a pitcher. I would have a really, really hard time seeing Mike Rizzo pass on Paul Skenes if he's available at the second overall pick.

RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#5)
Paul Skenes has taken a massive step forward this spring. Crews and Langford also look like better hitters than they were a year ago, and that's saying something considering the kind of 2022 seasons they had. Meanwhile, Chase Dollander is the only player in this quartet to take a step backwards this season, but he remains an elite prospect. After posting a 2.39 ERA and a 4.2% walk rate last year, he's up to a a 4.19 ERA and a 7.7% walk rate this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady around 35%. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and runs it up to 98, and while last year it showed explosive riding action that made it a plus-plus pitch, it has played more as straight plus this spring with moderate riding life. He still snaps off a nasty, plus slider with hard sweeping action, while also flipping in a more traditional curveball and changeup. He's a very good athlete on the mound that gets great extension to help his pitches play up further, with above average command to both sides of the plate even as he's taken a slight step backwards in that regard. It's still a profile with four average or better pitches, two of which are plus, and above average command from an athletic, durable frame, with plenty of upside especially if he recaptures his 2022 magic. He has every bit as much of a chance to be an ace as Paul Skenes, with potentially a little more variance in the profile. At this point, he's trending in the wrong direction and Mike Rizzo probably prefers Skenes at this point at second overall, but if he gets hot down the stretch, he'll certainly be in play.

OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [TX] (#3)
Playing in colder weather in central Indiana, Max Clark just got going recently, so there's not much to update on since the preseason writeup. He's still a potential five tool player with an extremely projectable frame and the ability to impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Previously more of a line drive, gap to gap hitter that let his power come naturally, he is showing a little bit more loft in his swing this spring that could help him tap additional power as he grows into it. And he'll certainly grow into it, with a very projectable 6'1" frame and natural leverage in his left handed swing. Given his prodigious hit tool, which has him taking great at bats against high level pitching, recognizing spin, and using the whole field with ease, I don't think this added loft will cause any level of concerning swing and miss. Looking at current Nationals outfielders, he's not quite as big as James Wood or Elijah Green and will never have quite as much power, but he's a better pure hitter than both and has the speed to stick in center field. He's a prime candidate to progress naturally and get steadily better as he rises through the system, and he may not require as much patience as the average prep because of how advanced he is right now. I haven't heard his name thrown around as much for the Nationals but I would be thrilled if he was the pick. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will not come cheap.

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#6)
As with Max Clark, we don't have a huge sample size for Walker Jenkins quite yet but he has been going a little longer in coastal North Carolina. And in the early going, the returns have been very impressive. Impressive enough that the Nationals draft a high school bat in the first round for the third year in a row, and a high school outfielder for the second year in a row? It's tough to say, but it's a good problem to have. Jenkins has more power than Clark and is probably more similar to Wyatt Langford as a prospect, though he has the advantage of batting left handed. It's comfortably plus raw power that he taps in games from a very strong 6'3" frame, a "big league body" as they say, and natural loft and leverage in his left handed swing. He never needs to sell out for home runs, which has helped him grow as a pure hitter as well with a disciplined approach and improving pitch recognition. The pure hit tool is still probably a bit behind that of Langford, Clark, and Dylan Crews, but he's also the youngest player in this set of six and he has had no problem with advanced pitching wherever he has gone. Jenkins has been dinged up by injuries at times in the past, but he's fully healthy now and that shouldn't be an issue. He profiles similar to Crews as a defender, with some speed and a strong arm that will make him an asset in right field. At this point, the Nationals will probably lean on the SEC track record of Crews or Langford if they're going to draft a bat, but Jenkins' combination of youth, physicality, and performance would be tough to pass up if perhaps they wanted to cut a deal. He is committed to North Carolina.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC East

2022 draftees: 41. Top school: Tennessee (10)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/17/2021, full SEC)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-25, Yankees: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt)
1-28, Astros: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee)
1C-31, Rockies: OF Sterlin Thompson (Florida)
CBA-38, Rockies: OF Jordan Beck (Tennessee)
2-44, Pirates: LHP Hunter Barco (Florida)
2-52, Mets: RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)
CBB-67, Orioles: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)

Last year, I left the SEC as one conference, but now that an already incredibly deep conference is getting even deeper with the help of the transfer portal era, I had to split it into two. The SEC East, which contains seven teams, saw 41 players drafted and only Missouri and powerhouse Florida, ironically enough, failed to have five players hear their name called. Even though they fell to the bottom of the conference with four, all four Gators went in the first ninety picks. Last year, each of the first four players drafted from the SEC East were outfielders, but this is a conference known for its gauntlet of arms and six of the top eight prospects and each of the first three players that missed the list are pitchers. Let's take a look at the top ten prospects from South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 10/26/2001. Hometown: Evans, GA.
2022: 10-0, 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB in 79 innings.
Last year, Tennessee was the most dominant team in college baseball for most of the season and led the SEC East with ten players drafted, and they return in 2023 with not just the best prospect in the division, but likely the best pitcher in the entire draft class heading into the season. Chase Dollander began his career at Georgia Southern near his hometown in the Augusta area, but transferred to Tennessee as a sophomore and just dominated the SEC on all fronts. At this point, he's pretty much the ideal pitching prospect. Dollander sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 when he wants to, so triple digits will certainly be on the figurative radar for 2023. Beyond its velocity, it's an explosive fastball that carries from a fairly low release point with strong extension, getting on hitters in a hurry. He throws two breaking balls highlighted by a plus slider with late bite, as well as a deeper curveball, and his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. It's truly explosive stuff that would be hard to handle even if hitters were able to get ahead in the count and look for hangers, but that's not all. The 6'3" lefty also has a very athletic, efficient delivery that enables him to pound the strike zone and get ahead in the count in a hurry, and he never walked more than two batters in any of his 14 starts last year while striking out 35.3% of his opponents. With his combination of explosive stuff, athleticism, durability, and command, it's really hard to poke any holes in this profile and he has a chance to go first overall if he continues to throw like he did in 2022.

2. OF Wyatt Langford, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 225 lbs. Born 11/15/2001. Hometown: Trenton, FL.
2022: 26 HR, .355/.447/.719, 7 SB, 44/36 K/BB in 66 games.
Up in the North Florida town of Gainesville, they pull most of their talent from larger hotbeds to the south such as Miami, Tampa, and Orlando, but the outfield was full of local kids like Jud Fabian (Ocala), Sterlin Thompson (Ocala), and Wyatt Langford (Trenton). Fabian and Thompson both went in the top forty picks at various points, but Langford has a chance to beat both the Ocala boys by a good margin. He earned just four at bats as a freshman in 2021, but took the conference by storm in 2022 with an incredible sophomore season in which he led the SEC with 26 home runs and 184 total bases and tied Dylan Crews (LSU) for the conference lead with 73 runs scored. Langford packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, channeling it efficiently into a smooth right handed swing that keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time while still creating loft. An advanced hitter, he uses the whole field effectively with few holes in his swing, and can easily spread out that power by getting his arms extended and taking you deep to right field. He held strong strikeout (14.5%) and walk (11.9%) rates in 2022, though as an outfielder looking to go near the very top of the draft, he'd do well for himself to up the latter a bit to potentially eclipse the former. That's nitpicky given he really doesn't have problems with swing and miss, especially considering his plus power, but that's how it goes in the top ten picks. Defensively, Langford's above average speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, and a team that believes in his glove might give him a long look in those top couple of picks. If he slows down at all though, or if he ends up on a team with a bona fide center fielder already on the roster, he may move to left field. That would put pressure on his bat and may move him back closer to a team picking in the 8-15 range if that's how teams evaluate him, but there is plenty, plenty enough bat to profile in that role. At his peak, Langford has a chance for 30+ home runs per season with solid or better on-base percentages.

3. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Thomasville, GA.
2022 (@ Southern Miss): 6-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 140/33 K/BB in 90 innings.
One of the top transfers in the entire country this year, Hurston Waldrep dominated Conference USA last year and finished eighth in the nation with 140 strikeouts for Southern Miss. After teaming with fellow top draft prospect Tanner Hall in the Golden Eagles rotation, he heads across the Gulf to Florida, where he'll be gunning for one of the most coveted Friday night roles in the country. The stuff is absolutely there – Waldrep sits in the mid 90's with his fastball that can touch 99, coming in with explosive ride that makes it a similar pitch velocity and movement-wise to Chase Dollander's fastball. While Dollander has better command and is the better overall prospect, Waldrep's secondaries do make it close. He throws a power slider in the upper 80's with hard sweeping action, and his deep hammer curveball has knee-buckling bite to give hitters another thing to worry about. Additionally, he's been working on a splitter that looks above average at its best, making for arguably the best four pitch mix in the country. The 6'2" righty comes in with an uptempo delivery, taking advantage of his quick twitch athleticism and exploding towards the plate. He repeats it well, though his command is just average for now and will be something to watch against those disciplined SEC lineups. If he can continue to pound the strike zone and miss bats with his devastating stuff, he has a chance to be the first pitcher off the board.

4. OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 160 lbs. Born 12/2/2001. Hometown: Hialeah, FL.
2022: 8 HR, .317/.415/.498, 46 SB, 40/41 K/BB in 62 games.
There might not be a more enjoyable player to watch in all of college baseball than Enrique Bradfield. A potential top three round pick out of high school in 2020, he instead made it to campus at Vanderbilt and has tormented the rest of the SEC since day one. He hit .336/.451/.414 as a freshman and led the nation with 47 stolen bases, then tied for second in the nation in 2022 with 46 stolen bases while getting on base over 40% of the time and bumping his home run total from one to eight. Speed is the name of the game here, as he is an 80 grade runner that further causes problems with elite instincts on the base paths. He's not just the best baserunner in this draft, but the best in quite some time. Not only did he steal 46 bases last year, he didn't even get caught once – no other player in the nation stole more than 18 bases without being caught. But Bradfield is not just a runner. An ultra-skinny kid at 6'1", 160 pounds, he guides the barrel around the zone with precision and makes hard all fields contact with regularity, giving himself more than ample opportunity to utilize that blazing speed in games. A patient hitter as well that will make you work to get him out, he walked more than he struck out both in 2021 and 2022 and nearly did so again on the Cape last summer, where he ran a .389 on-base percentage against the best pitching in the country. He'll never be a power threat with that rail-thin build, but given his feel for the barrel and strong pitch selection, he could turn on a few mistake pitches at the big league level and ambush you for 5-10 home runs per season. The calling card, of course, will always be the speed, and outfielders will have to be careful they don't let routine base hits become doubles or let balls in the gap turn into triples. As you might expect, the elite speed translates into plus defense in center field, giving him a third plus or better tool. As long as he continues to impact the ball in 2023 like he has the past two seasons, he has a very good chance to go in the middle of the first round or better.

5. RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 10/7/2001. Hometown: Sea Girt, NJ.
2022: 2-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 69/35 K/BB in 52.1 innings.
Had the 2020 high school season not been cut short by COVID, there's a good chance Patrick Reilly would have never made it to Nashville as he had been carrying plenty of helium into the season. He has tantalized with his arm talent for two years now, but to this point is yet to put it all together and for the second straight season is one of the conference's more prominent breakout candidates. He holds a 4.99 ERA and a 122/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings through two seasons at Vanderbilt, and after a pair of strong scoreless starts in the Cape Cod League in 2021, he was up and down on the Cape in 2022 with a 4.26 ERA and a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Those are not particularly inspiring numbers, but this is a premium arm nonetheless. Reilly sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has reached as high as 98, with moderate riding action that isn't quite enough to elicit a ton of chases, but does keep it off barrels. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent, deep slider that regularly flashes plus, while he also works in a harder cutter and a changeup. This 6'3" righty has a premium pitcher's frame, and throughout his time in Nashville he has gotten much more athletic with his delivery. To this point, his command has not followed suit as he can get too uptempo and struggle to stay under control, but the athleticism does give plenty of hope that he can eventually get more consistent in that regard. With the power arm, durability, athleticism, and deep arsenal, he has a chance to put everything together and pitch his way into the first round this spring.

6. RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'6", 215 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Atlanta, GA.
2022: 7-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 91/31 K/BB in 89.1 innings.
South Carolina has another horse ready to lead them to a competitive year in the SEC East. Will Sanders has been an impact arm since the day he reached Columbia, holding a career 3.47 ERA and a 145/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.2 innings almost entirely as a starter. Built like a stick of bamboo at 6'6", he offers plenty of projection even as he's steadily tacked on velocity with South Carolina. He presently sits in the low 90's but can bump it up to the mid 90's at will, though the pitch has pretty generic plane and movement. Sanders stands out more for his secondaries, including an above average slider that is still searching for its identity and can flash plus at its best, as well as an above average changeup that represents one of the better cambios in the class. The Atlanta native has a very simple, low effort delivery with a strong lower half that helps him pound the strike zone with above average control and average command while holding his velocity deep into starts. The flip side is that he doesn't create much deception, and when you combine that with his generic fastball, his ceiling may be a bit limited unless he finds a way get more movement. Still, with three above average pitches, durability, projection, and solid command, he is a high probability mid rotation starter.

7. OF Jared Dickey, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Mount Juliet, TN.
2022: 7 HR, .380/.484/.690, 3 SB, 12/20 K/BB in 40 games.
Jordan Beck, Drew Gilbert, Trey Lipscomb, Jorel Ortega, Luc Lipcius, Evan Russell. If you watch college baseball, you're very familiar with those names that helped make up Tennessee's murderer's row of a lineup last year, but Jared Dickey flew somewhat under the radar in a reserve role. Appearing in 40 of the team's 66 games and only starting 25, he slashed .380/.484/.690 with seven home runs and struck out less than ten percent of the time. He stands out most for his tremendous combination of discipline and barrel accuracy, making him an extremely tough out and helping him get on base nearly half the time. Dickey utilizes a very simple left handed swing, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring it up with consistency, leading to a high volume of singles, extra base hits, and even home runs in Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2023 as he gets more consistent at bats and opposing teams are able to focus more on their game plans against him with Beck, Gilbert, and co. out of the way. Continuing to perform now that the secret is out will certainly benefit his stock, but given a 9.5% strikeout rate and a 15.9% walk rate last year, it's hard to imagine there's anything opposing teams can throw him that will fool him. He has the upside of a high on-base hitter that can knock 15-20 home runs per season, certainly a hit over power profile for now unless he changes his approach to chase that power. He has seen some time behind the plate but likely profiles as a corner outfielder, where the pressure will really be on his bat, but he has time to work on his catching and guys like Dalton Rushing and Nathan Hickey have been able to make it work with similar profiles. Proving he can catch while continuing to hit would likely push him into the first round.

8. SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 170 lbs. Born 3/11/2002. Hometown: Hilo, HI.
2022 (@ Kansas): 8 HR, .396/.479/.634, 13 SB, 49/28 K/BB in 53 games.
Hurston Waldrep isn't the only big name player transferring into the SEC East. While Kansas baseball has struggled for a long time now, Maui Ahuna was one of the best players to come through the program in a long time and hit .357/.447/.532 with nine home runs in 103 games over two seasons. He had a chance to be the first Jayhawk drafted since third rounder Ryan Zeferjahn in 2019 and the first to go in the top two rounds since Curt Shaw way back in 1990, but upon head coach Ritch Price's retirement, he announced his intention to transfer to Tennessee. He had an up and down run with the Collegiate National Team but struggled in a short stint on the Cape, striking out 15 times in 28 plate appearances, so his transition to SEC pitching will be closely watched even if he dominated against strong Big 12 pitching. Ahuna lacks a carrying tool, but he does almost everything well and brings plenty of ceiling. A skinny kid, he comes with a very athletic 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add good weight, and he did already improve from one home run as a freshman to eight as a sophomore. He gets good leverage from the left side with those long arms and a big, powerful swing, so he should get to above average power as he gets stronger. The Hawaii native did strike out in over 20% of his plate appearances last year and had that rough Cape run, so the hit tool is a bit more in question with a bit of a swoopy swing, but he has a very accurate barrel and had no problem performing in the Big 12 last year, where he led the conference in batting average. Ahuna also brings value with his glove, as a potential above average defender at shortstop with a good arm, though he may have to move to third base if he slows down at all. Optimists will give him above average tools across the board while pessimists may see more average tools, leaving a lot of room for split opinions. A team that believes in the tools might consider him as high as the first round, while those that are more off-put by the 53.5% strikeout rate on the Cape and see him as a third baseman rather than a shortstop might want to wait until the second or third round to roll the dice.

9. LHP Magdiel Cotto, Kentucky.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 250 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Fort Mill, SC.
2022: 3-1, 6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 36/19 K/BB in 32.2 innings.
Magdiel Cotto teamed with Will Sanders at South Carolina as a freshman in 2021, but struggled to find innings in that loaded pitching staff and transferred to Kentucky as a sophomore. Serving as a swingman, he struggled with consistency and ended up with forgettable numbers, but he turned heads in the Cape Cod League with a 3.73 ERA and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. At his best, Cotto has some of the loudest left handed stuff in the country, and he's learning to harness it now. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets up to 97, coming in with that tough lefty angle to boot. His slider shows good sweep and looks above average, and he drops in a solid changeup as well to give him a very strong three pitch mix from the left side. The 6'4", 250 pound left hander creates deception hiding the ball behind that big frame, which also projects durability. Cotto has struggled with command in the past but looked better in that regard on the Cape, trending towards average which would really help him stick in the rotation long term. In 2023, scouts will obviously be looking for much more consistency than he showed over the past two years, hoping his loud stuff plays up against SEC lineups like it is capable of. Additionally, he doesn't turn 21 until shortly before the draft, making him one of the younger college players available.

10. LHP Liam Sullivan, Georgia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'6", 245 pounds. Born 5/16/2002. Hometown: Sandy Springs, GA.
2022: 4-3, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 51/20 K/BB in 48.2 innings.
Over the past few years, Georgia has produced quite a few polished arms such as Emerson Hancock, Ryan Webb, and Jonathan Cannon, but in 2023 they have a pair of power armed lefties that have a chance to break out. I like Jaden Woods a lot, and he just missed this list, but Liam Sullivan has helium and pushed into the back. He sits in the low 90's and has hit 96 with his running fastball, adding a downer curveball and a solid changeup to form a very good three pitch mix. He is yet to put it together in Athens, but he really elevated his stock with a dominant run through the Cape Cod League in which he posted a 2.17 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings and looks to ride that success into 2023. Standing 6'6", 245 pounds, he is a big, physical presence on the mound that works downhill and can overpower hitters at his best. The command hasn't quite been there at Georgia, but he pounded the zone on the Cape and continuing to do so could push him into the top two rounds as a mid rotation starter type.