In my opinion, this is the best system in the minors – the Padres might have an argument if Brendan McKay had thrown one more inning in the majors, but he sits at 49 heading in 2020, keeping him technically a rookie. This system is just so deep everywhere you look, and I think that starts with the infield. Wander Franco is just 18 years old and already tackled High A with flying colors, making him arguably the best prospect in baseball at any position, while guys like Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards, and Greg Jones all have star potential as well. The outfield doesn't have any of those true stud prospects, but Josh Lowe and Randy Arozarena lead a deep group that's bound to have more than a few guys pan out. On the mound, McKay and the long-injured Brent Honeywell are major league ready arms with ace upside, while guys like Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson, and Resly Linares ooze with upside as well. Behind them, there's a whole group of less well-known arms that broke out in 2019, most notably Joe Ryan, Tommy Romero, and Michael Plassmeyer. The amount of talent here is just unreal.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, short season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
Catcher
- Ronaldo Hernandez (2020 Age: 22): Hernandez has hit his way up through the minors, including knocking 21 home runs in 2018, though the pitcher-friendly Florida State League might have sapped his offense a bit as he slashed .265/.299/.397 with nine home runs and a 65/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Charlotte. He has high upside at the plate, given his great ability to make contact and his explosive right handed swing. He gets the ball in the air, but he does need to add actual loft to his swing rather than just hitting the bottom of the ball to tap his power more often against advanced pitching. He's young enough to make those adjustments, and certainly talented enough given that he's so adept at making contact and maintains such an explosive swing. Defensively, he has a strong arm and is otherwise capable behind the plate, taking some pressure off his bat (not that it needs to be off), and overall he has the ceiling of a starting catcher who can hit 20-25 home runs per season. He'll just need to shake off an up and down 2019.
- Brett Sullivan (2020 Age: 26): Sullivan was a 17th round pick out of Pacific in 2015, but he's hit at every stop along the way in the minors and now looks like a nice backup option in the near future. In 2019, he slashed .280/.333/.459 with ten home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 48/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Montgomery, showing a power/patience/speed combination you don't typically see in a catcher. He's got some nice power from the left side, and he manages the strike zone extremely well and is tough to strike out, which has helped his power play up. Defensively, he's decent behind the plate but is also athletic enough to handle almost any position on the field except shortstop and of obviously pitcher. The Rays won't let him hold back Hernandez, who is easily the superior prospect, but Sullivan has the chance to hit his way onto the major league club as a versatile C/IF/OF super-utility type with some power.
- Keep an eye on: Rene Pinto, Chris Betts
Corner Infield
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): I'm going to list McKay twice. Drafted as the fourth overall pick out of Louisville in 2017, McKay's arm is ahead of his bat at this point, as he slashed just .200/.298/.331 with five home runs and a 51/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. Additionally, he homered and singled in ten at bats in the majors, striking out twice and walking once. He generates plus power from a leveraged left handed swing, and he's controlled the strike zone exceptionally well throughout his career until he reached the upper minors in 2019. However, he hasn't quite gotten to that power as much as he would have liked to in pro ball, as he's hit too many ground balls to truly tap it. I'm sure that could easily be remedied if he gave up pitching and focused on hitting. Of course, given that he's a better pitcher than hitter, that won't happen, nor should it. I wouldn't expect him to hit like Shohei Ohtani in the majors, but he could be a nice bench or platoon bat that only has to worry about staying fresh against right handed pitchers. Or, it might just be time that he needs instead of specialized focus, and he could end up as a legitimate high on-base power hitter. I'd expect the former projection though for the DH.
- Kevin Padlo (2020 Age: 23-24): Padlo was a Rockies' fifth round pick out of a Southern California high school back in 2014, and he came over to the Rays in the Jake McGee/Corey Dickerson trade in 2016. He broke out offensively in 2019, slashing .265/.389/.538 with 21 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 116/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, which is huge given that he's a corner infielder who needs to hit to provide value. Padlo has the power to hit the ball out of any park and the patience to draw plenty of walks and get his pitch to hit, though he also has some swing and miss in his game that makes it difficult for him to profile as a long term starter at first or third base. The Rays don't have any true roadblocks at either of those positions, but they also have a lot of depth that might make it difficult to break through. He does crush left handed pitching, which on a team like the Rays that loves to mix and match, might actually be better for his overall outlook than if he hit both lefties and righties equally.
- Keep an eye on: Jim Haley, Dalton Kelly, Jake Guenther
Middle Infield
- Wander Franco (2020 Age: 19): I typically go in order from top of the minors to bottom, but being that Franco is the second coming of Fernando Tatis Jr. and likely the top prospect in baseball, he'll earn the first spot in the middle infield section even from A ball. Franco was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $3.8 million in 2017, and that's already looking like an absolute bargain. He tore up the rookie level Appalachian League to the tune of a .351/.418/.587 line in 2018 at an age when most Dominican signees are still on the island, then in 2019, he slashed .327/.398/.487 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 35/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. Franco has top of the scale plate discipline that has enabled him to walk significantly more than he's struck out at every level despite being significantly younger than his competition the whole time, and his elite feel for the barrel enables him to make hard contact in virtually every at bat. For now, he's more of a line drive hitter, but he played the entire 2019 season at just 18 years old and his explosive hands and bat make it easy to project him for at least above average power if not better. Defensively, he has a strong arm but it's unclear where he'll end up in the infield, but given that he's just a teenager, he does have plenty of time to refine his actions at shortstop. Overall, that's about as complete of a skill set as you can have for a teenager, and it's easy to project him as hitting anywhere from 15 to 30 home runs per season with on-base percentages north of .400 and some stolen bases to boot. He probably starts 2020 in AA, but if he hits as expected, there's a non-zero chance he could force his way onto the big league roster by the end of the season.
- Vidal Brujan (2020 Age: 22): While Franco deservedly gets most of the hype as the potential shortstop of the future, but Vidal Brujan gives the Rays another elite middle infield prospect coming through the ranks. Listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, he's a little guy who originally signed for a paltry $15,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, but his combination of speed and feel for the barrel has slowly pushed him to the national prospect discussion. In 2019, Brujan slashed .277/.346/.389 with four home runs, 48 stolen bases, and a 61/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, giving him 103 stolen bases over the past two seasons and putting him within arm's reach of the majors. He employs an extremely quick bat and great feel for the barrel from the left side, enabling him to hit for high averages, avoid strikeouts, and most importantly, get the ball in play so he can get the most out of his elite speed. He's not much of a power hitter and never will be, but he has enough strength to be an extra base threat who can drop the ball into the gap and run wild on the bases. Defensively, he's a little small for shortstop but he plays a very good second base, and he could hit his way into a starting role by the end of 2020. Overall, that's the upside of 5-10 home runs per season, high on-base percentages, and a ton of stolen bases with good defense.
- Taylor Walls (2020 Age: 23-24): Walls grew up in southern Georgia, but as a 2017 third round pick out of Florida State, he earns the title of a semi-hometown player. He hit well against younger competition in 2018 (.304/.393/.428 in Class A) before a more challenging assignment in 2019, where he slashed .270/.343/.452 with ten home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 79/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery. Originally much more of a pure contact hitter in college and in Class A, he originally struggled with swing and miss when trying to hit for power but the Rays have helped him change that and become more of a complete hitter. Walls retains the strong plate discipline he's always had, though he's begun to lift the ball more and successfully tap some extra base and home run power without sacrificing his on-base percentage. Overall, it's a little bit too light of an offensive package to profile as a starter, especially with Franco and Brujan in this organization, but his defensive versatility gives him a good shot at becoming a very useful utility infielder in the near future.
- Lucius Fox (2020 Age: 22-23): Fox originally signed with the Giants for $6 million out of the Bahamas in 2015, then came over in the Matt Moore trade in 2016. However, his bat has failed to materialize at this point, and in 2019 he slashed .221/.331/.327 with three home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 104/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham. He's a very patient hitter than can draw walks, after which he can use his elite speed to steal a bunch of bases, including at least 25 in each of the past four seasons and 123 in total. He has good bat to ball skills, though to this point he's failed to hit for any kind of impact and likely won't ever hit enough to start full time. Given his speed and his great infield defense, he does profile well as a quality utility infielder who can control the strike zone and steal a bunch of bases. Fox also comes with some upside if he can make more hard contact.
- Xavier Edwards (2020 Age: 20-21): Originally a Padres' 2018 competitive balance pick out of high school in Broward County, Edwards was sent back home to Florida in the Tommy Pham deal this offseason and gives the Rays another big time middle infield prospect. He proved to be remarkably advanced in his first full season, slashing .322/.375/.396 with a home run, 34 stolen bases, and a 54/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Class A and High A, showing exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone along the way. At a skinny 5'10", it's hard to project him for much power, but Edwards makes such easy, consistent, hard contact that he should hit plenty of doubles and triples that can be stretched with his elite speed. Originally a 50/50 shortstop who may have to move to second base, he's improved and now looks like he'll be able to remain at short, as his range helps him make up for an average arm. Together, I'd project him as a starting shortstop in most organizations, though he'll probably have to either push Wander Franco over to third base or out-hit Vidal Brujan to start in this one. I think it's doable, with the former outcome more likely.
- Greg Jones (2020 Age: 22): Jones is an interesting one. A well regarded prospect coming out of a Raleigh-area high school in 2017, he instead opted to attend UNC Wilmington, where he was eligible as a sophomore because he was a year old for his class. Originally viewed as more of a second or third rounder, he got hot late in the spring and shot up draft boards at the last second, landing with the Rays at pick #22 in the first round of 2019. He continued his hot hitting in pro ball, slashing .335/.413/.461 with one home run, 19 stolen bases, and a 56/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games at short season Hudson Valley. He still has a fair amount of swing and miss in his game, but it's been decreasing and he's been finding the barrel more and more consistently. There's not a ton of home run power unless he beefs up a little bit and changes his approach, but he has the exceptional speed to profile well as a high on-base guy who hits 5-15 home runs per season. Defensively, there are questions as to whether he'll stick at shortstop, especially given all the talent there in this organization, but he could end up an above average center fielder with that elite speed.
- Keep an eye on: Miles Mastrobuoni, Tristan Gray, Tyler Frank, Zach Rutherford, Ford Proctor, Nick Sogard, Alejandro Pie
Outfield
- Randy Arozarena (2020 Age: 25): *Copied from the Cardinals' system review, as Arozarena came over in the Tommy Pham deal:* "Arozarena was a highly touted Cuban import who signed for $1.25 million in in 2016, then broke out in upper minors in 2019. This year, he slashed .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 71/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, then hit .300/.391/.500 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a 19 game debut with the Cardinals. At 5'11", he doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he knows how to get to it and has hit double digit home runs all three years in the minors. That's more due to his feel for the barrel, which has enabled him to limit his strikeouts and consistently make hard contact, leading to high batting averages, albeit without a ton of walks." The Rays like to mix and match a lot of their players, which will give Arozarena the chance to compete for a major league role right away, and in all he projects for about 15 home runs per season, a few stolen bases, and solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Josh Lowe (2020 Age: 22): The younger brother of current Rays first baseman Nate Lowe, Josh was a first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school back in 2016 but took some time to get things figured out in pro ball. After slashing just .238/.322/.361 in High A in 2018, he broke out with a strong .252/.341/.442 line as well as 18 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 132/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Montgomery in 2019. Always a great athlete, he's struggled to find the barrel consistently and hit for impact in pro ball, and it took until 2019 for him to start to change that. He still comes in with great speed and defense, which in addition to his draft stock, buys his bat time, and if he can continue to tap that power in 2020 and beyond, he could be a fringe starter. The next step will probably be cutting down on some of his swing and miss, but he's in a better spot this year than he was last year. The Rays are still hoping they have their center fielder of the future, but a career as a fourth outfielder remains a distinct possibility.
- Moises Gomez (2020 Age: 21): Gomez is a very high ceiling, low floor type who could really turn out to be something special. Signed for just $40,000 out of Venezuela in 2015, he put himself on the map with a huge 2018 (19 HR, .280/.328/.503 in Class A) before struggling in 2019 with a .220/.297/.402 slash line, 16 home runs, and a 164/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Charlotte. Though he's just 5'10", he packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame which in turn generates a lot of raw power from the right side, which he has gotten to consistently. However, he struggles with contact, often chasing breaking balls out of the zone and racking up high strikeout totals. The good news is he's still young, only having turned 21 at the end of the 2019 season, with plenty of time to refine his approach. He has the chance to become a 20-30 home run bat, but there's also a good chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder or a platoon guy if pitchers can keep exploiting his approach.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): *Copied from the Astros system review after Stevenson was traded for Austin Pruitt:* Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Niko Hulsizer (2020 Age: 23): Niko Hulsizer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers at Morehead State, which is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in college baseball, including knocking 27 home runs in just 59 games as a sophomore in 2017. He made some adjustments as a sophomore to become a more complete hitter and landed in the 18th round with the Dodgers, then came over to the Rays for Adam Kolarek in 2019. Between the two organizations, he slashed .258/.366/.525 with 21 home runs and a 123/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Class A, High A, and some complex level rehab work, showing off his big raw power as well as significant swing and miss. There's no question about who Hulsizer is as a hitter, as his explosive, all out right handed swing can make the ball jump off his bat in ways typically reserved for those blue chip prospects. He's also a patient hitter who is more than willing to draw a walk, a trait which has helped his power play up against pro pitching. He'll need to cut down on his swing and miss going forward, but Hulsizer is already looking like a late round gem and he could work his way up as a power hitting bench bat.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): Dodson was a two way player at California, and one year after selecting Brendan McKay out of Louisville, the Rays grabbed Dodson in the second competitive balance round in 2018 and sent him out playing both ways. Strictly talking about his hitting here, he was successful in his pro debut, slashing .273/.344/.369 in 49 games, but he was hurt for most of 2019 and hit just .250/.286/.350 with a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games at High A Charlotte. Unless he were to give up pitching, which I see as less likely than the hitting, it's hard for me to see him developing into an impact hitter, but he does control the strike zone very well with strong bat to ball skills and good speed, so a fourth outfield profile fits really well. The switch hitter also carries his strong pitching arm to the outfield, which makes him above average out there, and I think he can remain a hitter up to the majors while he pitches.
- Nick Schnell (2020 Age: 20): Schnell was a compensation pick out of an Indianapolis-area high school in 2018, though he didn't quite break out in his first full pro season as optimistically hoped, slashing .265/.325/.448 with five home runs and an 84/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Princeton, and at Class A Bowling Green. It's not the worst thing in the world that Schnell came away from the season with just five home runs, as he was considered a bit raw anyways, as are most Midwestern high school kids. The Rays are no stranger to developing projects, and the hope is that they can revamp his approach at the plate to help him tap his considerable raw power more often, as swing and miss was a significant issue this past year. The good news is that he hit the ball hard when he did make contact, adding 14 doubles and six triples in those 55 games, and he's a good runner and a solid defender that isn't just a one dimensional player. He retains his significant upside, but it might take a bit of time and some luck to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Boldt, Carl Chester, Izzy Wilson, Garrett Whitley, Ruben Cardenas, Grant Witherspoon, Shane Sasaki
Starting Pitching
- Brendan McKay (2020 Age: 24): Look who's back, it's Brendan McKay from the corner infield section (though technically he's a DH). The 2017 fourth overall pick out of Louisville projects much better on the mound at this point, and in 2019 he posted a 1.10 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 102/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, as well as a 5.14 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 56/16 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 major league innings. Because the major league rookie qualifier is 50 innings, McKay technically remains a prospect. He's an extreme pitchability left hander that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can morph into a cutter, and he adds a power curve and a changeup to go with them. Nothing really stands out as plus on its own, except potentially his curve when he stays on top of it really well, but he commands everything masterfully and, just as importantly, knows how to use his pitches to play off each other. Sometimes it's hard to project a pitchability guy like McKay as an ace, but you really never know given just how masterful he is at deploying his stuff, and it's quality stuff at that. I'd probably peg him as a number two long term.
- Brent Honeywell (2020 Age: 25): Honeywell was an elite prospect that was supposed to make an impact on the Rays' 2018 rotation right out of the gate, so while it's disappointing that we're still writing about him as a prospect here after the 2019 season, he retains his high upside. A competitive balance pick out of the Tennessee community college ranks in 2014, he dominated his way through the minors and by 2017 he had a career 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 458/93 strikeout to walk ratio over 416 innings. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, then a major setback in his rehab knocked out his 2019 season as well. He has as deep an arsenal as any player in the minors, coming in with five pitches led by a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent screwball that just keeps dropping and dropping. His slider has some nice, late bite, his changeup adds excellent fade, and he can toss in a curveball as well. Honeywell's command was really good before the injuries, but unfortunately it's hard to say with confidence what it will look like when he returns. Overall, he has ace upside if he returns like the pitcher he was in 2017, with the ability to make the baseball move in virtually any direction while commanding it.
- Shane McClanahan (2020 Age: 23): Not only is McClanahan one of the top pitching prospects in a deep system, he's also a hometown guy. After graduating from Cape Coral High School down near Fort Myers, he attended USF and ended up getting picked in the compensation round in 2018. He looked excellent in his brief pro debut that year (seven shutout innings, 13 K's), then continued the great pitching into 2019 with a 3.36 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery. It's been really interesting to watch his progression since Tommy John surgery wiped out his freshman season in 2016, as he was more of a thrower than a pitcher in college that relied on his mid to upper 90's fastball. His rawness was apparent at the start of the 2019 season, as he had a 3.40 ERA and a 74/31 strikeout to walk ratio against younger competition in Class A, but he took off with the promotion to High A with a 1.46 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio. The difference was in the command, as for the first time in his career, McClanahan was able to locate his pitches and make them play up and off each other rather than just saying "here's 100, hit it." He now sits in the low to mid 90's but can hit the upper 90's if he wants, adding an improving slider as well as a very good changeup that can play well off his fastball. If the gains he made with his command are sustained, he could be average or better in that regard, as well. He has less relief risk than he did a year ago, now with the chance to become a #2 starter if he can sharpen his breaking ball a bit more or improve his command a bit further. At present, though, he's still got some work to do and looks more like a #4 or a power reliever.
- Joe Ryan (2020 Age: 23-24): A seventh round senior sign out of Cal State Stanislaus in 2018, Ryan turned in one of the best pitching performances of any minor leaguer in 2019 and emerged as a true rotation prospect. After a nice 3.72 ERA and 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, he came out in 2019 with a 1.96 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 183/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AA Montgomery, the 183 strikeouts finishing second to only Kris Bubic's (Royals) 185. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with a lot of downward movement as well as a changeup, whileh is command has taken a big step forward in pro ball. That command is key, because it's enabled him to locate his pitches and make them play really well off each other, and it (in addition to a velocity bump) is what turned him from an unremarkable senior sign to the minors' #2 strikeout guy. Going forward, he'll need to refine his changeup a bit more, but he has the chance to be a #4 starter in Tampa.
- Tommy Romero (2020 Age: 22-23): Romero has flown a bit under the radar amid impressive pitching performances from bigger name prospects, but the Mariners' 15th round pick in 2017, who came over in the Alex Colome/Denard Span deal, has also been lights out. He's another Floridian who grew up in the Fort Lauderdale area before attending Eastern Florida State, and in 2019 he put up a 2.15 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at High A Charlotte as well as one start at AA Montgomery. He's a 6'2" righty with average stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a curve, slider, and changeup, but he gets good extension on his pitches that helps them play up in addition to good command. He's likely more of a #4 or #5 starter, especially in this system, but you can't argue with the dominance he's had and we'll see how he handles the upper minors in 2020.
- Michael Plassmeyer (2020 Age: 23): Plassmeyer was a fourth round pick by the Mariners out of Missouri in 2018, then came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal after the season. 2019 was a breakthrough year, as he posted a 1.91 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 109/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Class A Bowling Green, High A Charlotte, and AAA Durham, making him one of quite a few Rays arms with sub-2.50 ERA's. He's seen a slight velocity bump in pro ball, now sitting just above 90, and it plays up from his three quarters arm slot. That slot also gives him a good, two-plane diving curveball, as well as a nice fading changeup, and he hits his spots very well. He doesn't have the highest upside in the system, but he has a good shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the relatively near future.
- Shane Baz (2020 Age: 20-21): Baz was the Pirates' first round pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2017, then came over to the Rays as the player to be named later in the Chris Archer deal. Brought along slowly, he finally reached full season ball in 2019 and was successful, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 87/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings at Class A Bowling Green. He came into pro ball with a deep, five pitch arsenal, but the Pirates and Rays have refined him down to three, as he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding a great, sharp slider and a good changeup. The command has been a tick below what was originally expected, but given that he was already young for a high school draftee anyways, I don't think the Rays are overly worried about it at this point. He retains a high baseball IQ that will enable his stuff to consistently play up, and while he's been brought along cautiously so far, we have to expect the kid gloves will come off soon and he could start to race towards the majors as a potential future top of the rotation guy. He just has to improve that command back to average or a tick above.
- Drew Strotman (2020 Age: 23): Strotman was a fourth round pick out of St. Mary's in 2017, and his pro career got off to a hot start before he went down with Tommy John surgery in 2018. He returned late in 2019 to post a 4.50 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 24/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and High A Charlotte, which was successful just in the fact that he was able to get on the mound. He's more of a back-end starter than a high ceiling prospect, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider, curve, and changeup, and he does a good job of throwing strikes with all of his pitches. Durability is the key here, but with a sturdy 6'3" build and with all the guys who have gotten Tommy John, I wouldn't call it a huge issue just yet. Look for him to move quickly once he's healthy.
- Resly Linares (2020 Age: 22): The Rays have brought Linares along slowly, and a season ending forearm strain in his second start of 2019 slowed that down even further. He's a projectable 6'2" with easy low 90's velocity and a nice, sharp curve, as well as a changeup, and he commands everything decently well. He has all the building blocks to become an impact #3 starter, but coming back and proving he's healthy in 2020 will be the first step. I liked Linares coming into the season and I still do, and the injury just makes him more of a sleeper than a big name prospect.
- John Doxakis (2020 Age: 21): Doxakis was a second round pick out of Texas A&M in 2019, and after dominating the SEC, he posted a 1.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings at short season Hudson Valley. Despite standing 6'4", he only throws about 90, adding a good slider and a changeup. What makes him so good is the deception in his delivery in addition to his command, causing all of his pitches to play up. There's also the chance that the Rays can add a tick or two to his velocity and get him consistently into the low 90's, which would help raise his ceiling from the current #4 or #5 starter he's projected as. Either way, he'll likely move quickly as someone who understands pitching and how to get hitters out.
- Seth Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson was a light hitting infielder in the North Carolina junior college ranks, then a switch to the mound changed his career. Transferring to Campbell, he opened eyes immediately with his talented arm, and by the end of his first season as a pitcher in 2019 he was a competitive balance. In his pro debut, he put up a 2.12 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 16/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League and rookie level Princeton, setting himself up to hopefully take another big step forward in 2020. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of inconsistent secondary pitches, though with additional refinement, he could have multiple weapons at his disposal. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, which is a big boon for someone new to pitching, and the Rays are buying his fresh arm and advanced feel for spinning a breaking ball. He's an upside pick, not a safety pick, and he'll probably take some time to develop.
- JJ Goss (2020 Age: 19): Goss was a Rays' competitive balance pick out of a Houston-area high school in 2019, then posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's 6'3" righty that checks all the boxes you want to see in a young pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a very good slider and a fairly advanced changeup with a loose, projectable arm. He also does a good job of throwing strikes for his age, and together that gives him a very favorable projection as a #2 or a #3 starter with less risk than the typical high school arm. I really like this selection at #36 overall, especially considering the Rays didn't have to go above slot, and he could move fairly quickly for a teenager.
- Keep an eye on: Sam McWilliams, Paul Campbell, Faustino Carrera, Austin Franklin, Easton McGee, Zack Trageton, Ben Brecht, Evan McKendry, Taj Bradley, Sandy Gaston
Relief Pitching
- Peter Fairbanks (2020 Age: 26): A ninth round pick out of Missouri in 2015 who missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, Fairbanks is an older prospect who came over from the Rangers for Nick Solak in 2019. Between the two organizations, he had a 4.53 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 70/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings at High A, AA, and AAA, and he also put up a 6.86 ERA and a 28/10 strikeout to walk ratio across 21 major league innings. He has extremely short arm action but still throws in the mid to upper 90's, adding a hard downer slider that stands out more for its velocity than its movement. The 6'6" righty is unlikely to end up a closer considering his fringe-average command as well as the lack of a true plus breaking ball, but the velocity should help him be a valuable bullpen piece out of the gate in 2020.
- Phoenix Sanders (2020 Age: 24-25): Sanders is a hometown guy, as he grew up in Gainesville before attending USF and getting drafted in the tenth round as a senior in 2017, one round before his teammate Shane McClanahan joined the Rays organization. In 2019, he reached the upper minors and posted a 1.92 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 68/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham, putting him on the doorstep of pitching for his hometown team. He's a smaller guy at 5'10", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a really nice breaking ball with late movement as well as a changeup. He also does a good job of throwing strikes, though he profiles more as a middle reliever than as a set-up man or a closer.
- Riley O'Brien (2020 Age: 25): A money saving senior sign, O'Brien was an eighth round pick out of the College of Idaho in 2017 but has just been getting guys out since he had a velocity bump in pro ball. In 2019, O'Brien put up a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings at High A Charlotte and AA Montgomery, mostly on the power of a wicked slider. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's that slider that really helps him pick up a ton of swings and misses in any count. He also throws in a changeup, but his command is below average and that can cause his stuff to play down, and given the tremendous pitching depth in this system, it will probably force him to the bullpen. Given that he'll be 25 in February, that might not be the worst move, and it should accelerate his path to the bigs and help him become a power fastball/slider late inning reliever.
- Tanner Dodson (2020 Age: 22-23): You already read about Dodson as an outfielder, but he's probably an even better prospect as a pitcher. The Cal product shut down the New York-Penn League in his pro debut in 2018 (1.44 ERA, 25/5 K/BB), though he missed most of 2019 with injuries and finished with a 5.29 ERA, a 2.18 WHIP, and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings at High A Charlotte. He has a funky delivery that produces mid to upper 90's fastballs as well as sharp sliders and good fading changeups, and he typically throws enough strikes to make it all play up. Unless he were to give up hitting, I think it's strictly a relief-only profile, though he has shown the ability to go multiple innings. Getting back to full health should get him back on the fast track to the majors, as he's an advanced hitter as well, and he could be a useful part of both the Rays' bullpen and outfield going forward. If he were to give up hitting and focus exclusively on pitching, he has closer upside.
- Graeme Stinson (2020 Age: 22-23): Stinson is a complete wild card. A potential top ten pick coming into his junior season at Duke, he instead lasted just five starts before going down with a hamstring injury and never throwing another pitch for the Blue Devils. He's had his best success as a reliever, but the transition to the rotation was a disaster, with the Rays taking a chance on him in the fourth round in 2019. He has a powerful left arm, one that can sit in the low to mid 90's when he's healthy, and his power slider is already one of the best in the Rays's system. While the Rays could conceivably use a pro conditioning regimen to help him work back into the rotation, his most likely path forward is as a reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could be deadly. He does a decent job of throwing strikes and he brings high upside for a fourth round college draftee.
- Keep an eye on: Anthony Banda, Jack Labosky, Tyler Zombro, Tobias Myers, Simon Rosenblum-Larson
Showing posts with label Brendan McKay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brendan McKay. Show all posts
Saturday, January 25, 2020
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Reviewing the Tampa Bay Rays Farm System
The Rays usually have a deep farm system, often led by a deep group of projectable arms with a few solid hitters thrown in here and there. However, while the Rays still maintain a solid core of pitchers, the story this year is the position player group, with tons of potential impact bats from all over the diamond. With the lost season from Brent Honeywell came breakouts from guys like Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan, and because many of the system's star prospects are lower in the minors, this could be an even better system come next year. The Rays have something really exciting brewing down on the farm.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, Class A Bowling Green Hot Rods, Short Season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
High Minors Bats: 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Jesus Sanchez, 2B Nick Solak, and SS Lucius Fox
We'll start by getting the more advanced hitters out of the way, even though most of the excitement lies lower in the system. 24 year old Brandon Lowe, the first of Tampa Bay's three star Lowes to make the majors, slashed .297/.391/.558 with 22 home runs and a 102/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham in 2018 before putting up a .233/.324/.450 line with six home runs in his 43 game major league debut. Because he finished with 129 at bats, he just barely retains prospect status for 2019, but he has a very good shot at grabbing playing time quickly in Tampa. He's naturally a second baseman but has also seen time in the outifeld, giving him some positional flexibility that makes his bat more valuable. He's not quite an impact hitter, but Lowe can post solid on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, meaning he should fit right into the Rays' long term plans and be a steady bat and glove in their lineup for at least the next few seasons. 23 year old Nathaniel Lowe, not related to Brandon despite also having been born in Virginia's Hampton Roads area (Brandon grew up in Suffolk, Nathaniel moved to the Atlanta area), had a huge breakout in 2018 by slashing .330/.416/.568 with 27 home runs and a 90/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Charlotte, Montgomery, and Durham in 2018. In just one season, Lowe went from average hitting first baseman who was more or less organizational depth to a legitimate impact bat who slashed .356/.432/.588 in High A, .340/.444/.606 in AA, and .260/.327/.460 in AAA. He still doesn't provide much value on defense, but he has shown above average power as well as the ability to get to it consistently in the high minors, and he could crack the Rays starting lineup at some point early in 2019. Long term, he's likely a platoon bat just because the offensive bar is so high for first basemen, but expect him to get some big hits in the near future as a guy who, at best, could hit 20-25 home runs per season with pretty decent on-base percentages. 21 year old Jesus Sanchez wasn't as highly regarded as some of the others stars in 2014 international free agent class, but he has done nothing but hit since signing and slashed .282/.324/.433 with eleven home runs and a 92/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Charlotte and Montgomery in 2018. Sanchez has no standout tool but does everything well, showing some power, the ability to find the barrel and get on base, and good outfield defense, all against mostly older competition. He still needs a little more time for his bat to acclimate to the upper minors, but Sanchez has the ability to be a net-positive on both sides of the ball, and if he can improve his plate discipline just a little bit, he could be an impact hitter with 15-20 home run power and solid on-base percentages in the long run. 24 year old Nick Solak, who came over from the Yankees in last offseason's big three-team trade that included Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, slashed .282/.384/.450 with 19 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 112/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Montgomery in his first season in the Rays' system. The Louisville product is definitely more well known for his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and draws plenty of walks, which together have helped him turn in a gaudy .296/.390/.445 line with 34 home runs in three minor league seasons. His ability to find the barrel helps his power play up, and what was once a utility projection now has some room for a future in the starting lineup. He's mediocre at second base but the Rays reportedly love his makeup and work ethic, which has likely kept him from being forced into the outfield. I'm not sure Solak cuts it as a long term second baseman, but he keeps improving with the bat and could have a similar offensive profile to Sanchez when all is said and done, if with a little less power and a few more walks. Lastly, 21 year old Lucius Fox has the best name in the Rays' system, and he slashed .268/.351/.341 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 99/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games between Charlotte and Montgomery. Arguably the top prospect in the 2015 international free agent class when he signed, the Bahamian's bat has been fairly slow to develop but he shows plenty of speed and draws enough walks to keep himself in top prospect discussions. Defensively, he plays a solid if unspectacular shortstop, which buys his bat time, and he could start there down the road if he can show a little more thump in his bat. If not, he profiles as a speedy utility infielder, and 2019 should be telling as to where his future lies.
Low and Mid Minors Bats: 2B Vidal Brujan, C Ronaldo Hernandez, SS Taylor Walls, SS Wander Franco, 2B Tyler Frank, and OF Nick Schnell
While many of the upper-minors bats are fringe-starters aside from Jesus Sanchez, there is some real excitement down a few rungs on the farm, with a few hitters having legitimate star potential. 21 year old Vidal Brujan is one of the top prospects in the entire system, his huge breakout season consisting of a .320/.403/.459 slash line, nine home runs, 55 stolen bases, and a 68/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte, and he actually hit better after the promotion (.347/.434/.582 in 27 games) than before (.313/.395/.427 in 95 games). Despite standing just 5'9", Brujan's huge season as a 20 year old in A ball showed a great feel for the barrel, excellent plate discipline, and top-flight speed that could make him an impact leadoff man at the major league level. He's pretty good at second base but isn't the most consistent, and he could make a great center fielder if the Rays choose to go that route. Either way, look for Brujan as the Rays' leadoff man of the future beginning sometime around 2020. 21 year old Ronaldo Hernandez emerged as the system's clear top catching prospect by slashing .284/.339/.494 with 21 home runs and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Bowling Green, his raw power taking a step forward. Unlike most young catchers, Hernandez can both field and hit well, showing power, on-base ability, the ability to keep strikeouts down, and all around good defense behind the plate. He has not played above Class A, which unfortunately gives the bat plenty of time to falter, but his ability to find the barrel and make consistent loud contact should help mitigate some risk. Hernandez has the ceiling of a solid starting catcher who can actually be a net-positive at the plate, unlike most MLB catchers in today's game. 22 year old Taylor Walls spent the entire season in Class A, which is not ideal for a 2017 college draftee (third round, 79th overall out of Florida State), but he was young for a college junior and slashed .304/.393/.428 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an 80/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Bowling Green. He brings an advanced approach at the plate, lots of line drive contact, and good speed as well as sound infield defense. He should be able to handle shortstop and profiles best as a utility infielder, one who won't hit for much power but who can get on base and play pretty much any position. 17 year old Wander Franco, not to be confused with his brother, Astros prospect Wander Franco, his other brother, Giants prospect Wander Franco, or his father, former minor leaguer Wander Franco, is the best and most exciting prospect in this system (and the best of all the Wander Franco's). At just 17 years old, Franco slashed .351/.418/.587 with eleven home runs and a 19/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Princeton, showing an exceptional feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, more power than you'd expect from a 5'10" teenager, and the possibility to stay at shortstop, all well shy of even being able to legally buy a lottery ticket. Players can develop offensive skill sets like Franco's, but they rarely if ever do it at that age and virtually never while being able to play the middle infield. A lot can happen between rookie ball and the majors, but Franco is set to turn 18 during spring training and he is already way, way, way ahead of the curve. His ceiling is that of a perennial All Star. 22 year old Tyler Frank, a Florida native and Florida Atlantic University alum, was the Rays' second round pick (56th overall) in 2018 and got off to a hot start by slashing .288/.425/.412 with two home runs and a 28/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at short season Hudson Valley. While he doesn't have much punch in his bat yet, his advanced approach at the plate will help him move quickly through the minors and could give him a job as a utility man in the near future. If he adds a little power like he is capable of, he has a shot at competing for a starting spot at shortstop or second base. Lastly, 18 year old Nick Schnell was a compensation round pick (32nd overall) out of an Indianapolis high school in 2018 and didn't get off to quite as fast of a start, slashing .239/.378/.373 with one home run and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in complex ball. He has plenty of raw power and the patience to help inflate his on-base percentages, and the Rays hope that once he gets some development time under his belt after playing high school ball in the Midwest, he can blossom into a middle of the order hitter whose great right field defense can help make him an impact player. Of course, the 18 year old has a lot to work on to get there.
Mid and Upper Minors Arms: RHP Brent Honeywell, LHP Colin Poche, RHP Rollie Lacy, RHP Phoenix Sanders, LHP Resly Linares, RHP Tobias Myers, and RHP Austin Franklin
The Rays get deeper and deeper in arms the lower you go in the farm system, with the recent graduations of Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek, and many others, as well as the trades of Brock Burke and Genesis Cabrera, thinning the group at the top. 23 year old Brent Honeywell should have been on that graduation list as well, but he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery and lasts another year on prospect lists. Honeywell is a 6'2" right handed pitcher who checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball complimented by a full array of secondaries, most notably a devastating screwball. He also adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which except the curve can get consistent swings and misses, and he commands everything extremely well. He would have been yet another one of the big names in the 2018 rookie class had he not gone down with surgery, but he'll get another shot in 2019 to prove that he's the real deal. Honeywell has the ceiling of a true ace, and if he comes back healthy and the same pitcher he was before the surgery, he'll be at least an effective #4 starter. 25 year old Colin Poche has been absolutely lights out since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the 14th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2016 (10-3, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 227/55 K/BB career), and he topped it off with arguably the minors' best season by a reliever in 2018: 6-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 110/19 K/BB in 66 innings between AA and AAA. That's right, the 6'3" lefty struck out 45.6% of those he faced, walked just 7.9%, and allowed just seven runs (six earned) to cross the plate in 66 innings of work in the minor leagues' highest levels. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but gets lots of deception and lands it right where he wants it, adding a hard, effective slider to keep hitters off balance and rack up the strikeouts. He has a classic set-up profile and should be an impact reliever for the Rays beginning in 2019. 23 year old Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton Bluejay who was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade in 2018, then from the Rangers to the Rays in a massive three team deal this offseason, posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A in 2018. He sits right around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent curve and changeup, but everything plays up due to his command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He looks like a #5 starter or a long reliever at this point. 23 year old Phoenix Sanders is a local product as a native of Gainesville, Florida and a former USF Bull, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings between Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. He's a 5'10" righty with a low 90's fastball and a decent slider and changeup, but he controls everything well and should be a useful middle reliever in the near future. 21 year old Resly Linares has quietly jumped onto national prospect radars over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 97/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings at Bowling Green in 2018. Linares doesn't throw that hard and sits in the low 90's, adding a good curveball and a fairly advanced changeup that he has decent command of. He's fairly projectable at 6'2" and as a lefty, he has a high floor and will be useful in a variety of roles. Overall, he projects as a #3 or #4 starter, but I get a good feeling that 2019 could be a breakout season and he could be much more. 20 year old Tobias Myers, another local product (Winter Haven, FL), got out of that dreadful Orioles' pitching development program in the Tim Beckham trade and has improved considerably with the Rays, posting a 3.71 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 101/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings at Class A Bowling Green in 2018. He's just six feet tall but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, commanding everything fairly well and looking like a solid #3 or #4 starter on the right days. He still needs to get more consistent with that command and improve his changeup, but he's a nice arm to track and the Rays do well with developing pitchers. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Franklin is yet another Florida arm (from Paxton, up in the panhandle on the Alabama line), and he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Bowling Green. He has better stuff than all the Bowling Green arms listed before him on this list (Sanders, Linares, Myers), coming in with a low 90's fastball, a power curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which generate outs in their own ways. However, the 6'3" righty has very mediocre command and gets hit far harder than he should, leading to a lower strikeout rate that is a bit of a red flag for now. However, the Rays will continuously work with him to hit his spots and get ahead in the count, which will help his stuff play up and push him towards being a solid #3 starter. However, without the command, he risks being bumped to the bullpen.
Low Minors Arms: RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP Shane Baz, RHP Michael Mercado, LHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Matthew Liberatore, and RHP Sandy Gaston
The Rays probably have the best collection of low minors pitchers in the game, especially if you throw in Resly Linares, Tobias Myers, and Austin Franklin up at Class A. I really like a lot of these guys, and I think they could pull quite a few impact pitchers out of the group. 22 year old Simon Rosenblum-Larson is actually the lowest regarded prospect in this group, but I had to include him after a fantastic debut where he posted a 1.16 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 62/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings between short season Hudson Valley and Class A Bowling Green this year. He was a 19th round pick out of Harvard in 2018, and he actually faltered over his last few appearances of the season; through August 24th, he had a 0.25 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 58/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 36.2 innings, having allowed just one earned run through those 36.2 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but has a great feel for pitching and mixes his pitches effectively, and he'll look to rise as a middle reliever type. 19 year old Shane Baz came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade, and he is immensely talented despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. In 2018, he posted a 4.47 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball, flashing great stuff but showing that his command might be a little further behind than anticipated. Baz is a 6'3" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very deep arsenal of secondary pitches, all of which are very effective. He brings a hard cutter that gives hitters a different look from his fastball, throws both a slider and a curveball with significant bat-missing ability, and adds a solid changeup. With all of these pitches, his command sometimes falters and he hasn't always been the most consistent with his delivery, leading to him getting hit harder than he should. Still, he won't turn 20 until June and scouts love his makeup and competitiveness, giving him top of the rotation potential if he can pull it all together. 19 year old Michael Mercado is another high school draftee from that 2017 class (second round, 40th overall from San Diego) that has gotten off to a slow start. In 2018, Mercado posted a 5.22 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 38/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings at Hudson Valley, struggling to miss bats as he learned to command his pitches. He sits in the low 90's and adds a pretty good curveball, but his control is ahead of his command at this point and that is where he gets hurt with his decent stuff. He's extremely projectable at 6'4" and I really liked him on draft day in 2017, and he's really only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a prospect and potential mid-rotation arm. At this point, though, his mean projection is looking more like a #4 or #5 starter without those steps forward. 21 year old Shane McClanahan was the Rays' compensation pick (31st overall) in the 2018 draft out of USF, a year after his college teammate Phoenix Sanders was a tenth rounder to Tampa. McClanahan, a Florida Gulf Coast native from Cape Coral, was sharp in his debut and tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, one walk, and 13 strikeouts between complex ball and rookie level Princeton, though he faltered in the Appalachian League playoffs and allowed four runs in three innings. He's a 6'1" lefty with a blazing fastball that sits in the upper 90's, adding a decent slider and a great changeup to keep hitters off balance. However, he struggles with his command and with the lack of a good breaking ball, he has some adjustments to make in his transition to full season ball in 2019. In order to remain a starter, he'll either have to improve his command or slider, though improving both could make him a #2 guy. Without big steps forward in either of those areas, though, McClanahan runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball/changeup combination could make him a high-leverage reliever. 19 year old Matthew Liberatore, the Rays' first round pick (16th overall) out of high school in Phoenix, was one of my favorite draft prospects ever and he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 37/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings between complex ball and Princeton. Liberatore is a 6'5" lefty who has a ton of similarities to Clayton Kershaw including size, handedness, velocity, breaking balls, command, and even delivery. He sits in the low 90's projects for more, and he has already hit 97 a few times. When it comes to offspeeds, he adds a big breaking curveball, a new, sharp slider, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands and mixes well. I am a huge fan of Liberatore's ceiling as a guy who could have plus stuff and plus command, and while most project him as a mid-rotation starter, I think he has #2 or even ace upside. Keep a close eye on Liberatore in 2019. Lastly, 17 year old Sandy Gaston has not appeared in the minor leagues but he throws comfortably in the mid 90's from a projectable 6'3" frame. These young teenagers can develop in any number of directions, especially given that Gaston won't turn 18 until after the 2019 season, but he has high upside if he can improve his command and secondary pitches.
Two Way Players: Brendan McKay and Tanner Dodson
No, I didn't forget these guys. As far as I know, there are four legitimate two-way players in American pro baseball, and the Rays have the second and third best behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of my former high school teammate Andy McGuire (now in the Blue Jays' system). 23 year old Brendan McKay's arm is ahead of his bat, and in 2018 he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 103/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings between complex ball rehab, Class A Bowling Green, and High A Charlotte. He's a 6'2" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball to go along with a cutter and a changeup, and he commands everything very well. He's a classic innings eating, mid-rotation starter with a high floor as a back-end guy. At the plate, he slashed .214/.368/.359 with six home runs and a 52/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at the same levels, showing great plate discipline but struggling to tap into the home run power that got him drafted as a two way player. The Rays are shifting him from first base to DH for the 2019 season, which they hope will help him develop both as a pitcher and a hitter with one less thing on his plate. He still has a shot at being a 25 homer bat, but he'll need to start tapping into that power in 2019 if he wants to get that chance. 21 year old Tanner Dodson isn't a starter like McKay, instead splitting time between the bullpen and the outfield at California before being drafted in the competitive balance round (71st overall) in 2018. On the mound, he posted a 1.44 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at short season Hudson Valley, showing a mid 90's fastball and a great slider that misses bats. He also commands both pitches well, giving him the set-up man upside. At the plate, Dodson slashed .273/.344/.369 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 34/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games for Hudson Valley, showing more speed and contact than power. He actually could stick in center field and he has a sound enough approach and bat-to-ball skill set that he could be a useful fourth outfielder, but I see his future as being on the mound. We'll see how the Rays deal with that in 2019.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, Class A Bowling Green Hot Rods, Short Season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
High Minors Bats: 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Jesus Sanchez, 2B Nick Solak, and SS Lucius Fox
We'll start by getting the more advanced hitters out of the way, even though most of the excitement lies lower in the system. 24 year old Brandon Lowe, the first of Tampa Bay's three star Lowes to make the majors, slashed .297/.391/.558 with 22 home runs and a 102/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham in 2018 before putting up a .233/.324/.450 line with six home runs in his 43 game major league debut. Because he finished with 129 at bats, he just barely retains prospect status for 2019, but he has a very good shot at grabbing playing time quickly in Tampa. He's naturally a second baseman but has also seen time in the outifeld, giving him some positional flexibility that makes his bat more valuable. He's not quite an impact hitter, but Lowe can post solid on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, meaning he should fit right into the Rays' long term plans and be a steady bat and glove in their lineup for at least the next few seasons. 23 year old Nathaniel Lowe, not related to Brandon despite also having been born in Virginia's Hampton Roads area (Brandon grew up in Suffolk, Nathaniel moved to the Atlanta area), had a huge breakout in 2018 by slashing .330/.416/.568 with 27 home runs and a 90/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Charlotte, Montgomery, and Durham in 2018. In just one season, Lowe went from average hitting first baseman who was more or less organizational depth to a legitimate impact bat who slashed .356/.432/.588 in High A, .340/.444/.606 in AA, and .260/.327/.460 in AAA. He still doesn't provide much value on defense, but he has shown above average power as well as the ability to get to it consistently in the high minors, and he could crack the Rays starting lineup at some point early in 2019. Long term, he's likely a platoon bat just because the offensive bar is so high for first basemen, but expect him to get some big hits in the near future as a guy who, at best, could hit 20-25 home runs per season with pretty decent on-base percentages. 21 year old Jesus Sanchez wasn't as highly regarded as some of the others stars in 2014 international free agent class, but he has done nothing but hit since signing and slashed .282/.324/.433 with eleven home runs and a 92/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Charlotte and Montgomery in 2018. Sanchez has no standout tool but does everything well, showing some power, the ability to find the barrel and get on base, and good outfield defense, all against mostly older competition. He still needs a little more time for his bat to acclimate to the upper minors, but Sanchez has the ability to be a net-positive on both sides of the ball, and if he can improve his plate discipline just a little bit, he could be an impact hitter with 15-20 home run power and solid on-base percentages in the long run. 24 year old Nick Solak, who came over from the Yankees in last offseason's big three-team trade that included Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, slashed .282/.384/.450 with 19 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 112/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Montgomery in his first season in the Rays' system. The Louisville product is definitely more well known for his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and draws plenty of walks, which together have helped him turn in a gaudy .296/.390/.445 line with 34 home runs in three minor league seasons. His ability to find the barrel helps his power play up, and what was once a utility projection now has some room for a future in the starting lineup. He's mediocre at second base but the Rays reportedly love his makeup and work ethic, which has likely kept him from being forced into the outfield. I'm not sure Solak cuts it as a long term second baseman, but he keeps improving with the bat and could have a similar offensive profile to Sanchez when all is said and done, if with a little less power and a few more walks. Lastly, 21 year old Lucius Fox has the best name in the Rays' system, and he slashed .268/.351/.341 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 99/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games between Charlotte and Montgomery. Arguably the top prospect in the 2015 international free agent class when he signed, the Bahamian's bat has been fairly slow to develop but he shows plenty of speed and draws enough walks to keep himself in top prospect discussions. Defensively, he plays a solid if unspectacular shortstop, which buys his bat time, and he could start there down the road if he can show a little more thump in his bat. If not, he profiles as a speedy utility infielder, and 2019 should be telling as to where his future lies.
Low and Mid Minors Bats: 2B Vidal Brujan, C Ronaldo Hernandez, SS Taylor Walls, SS Wander Franco, 2B Tyler Frank, and OF Nick Schnell
While many of the upper-minors bats are fringe-starters aside from Jesus Sanchez, there is some real excitement down a few rungs on the farm, with a few hitters having legitimate star potential. 21 year old Vidal Brujan is one of the top prospects in the entire system, his huge breakout season consisting of a .320/.403/.459 slash line, nine home runs, 55 stolen bases, and a 68/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte, and he actually hit better after the promotion (.347/.434/.582 in 27 games) than before (.313/.395/.427 in 95 games). Despite standing just 5'9", Brujan's huge season as a 20 year old in A ball showed a great feel for the barrel, excellent plate discipline, and top-flight speed that could make him an impact leadoff man at the major league level. He's pretty good at second base but isn't the most consistent, and he could make a great center fielder if the Rays choose to go that route. Either way, look for Brujan as the Rays' leadoff man of the future beginning sometime around 2020. 21 year old Ronaldo Hernandez emerged as the system's clear top catching prospect by slashing .284/.339/.494 with 21 home runs and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Bowling Green, his raw power taking a step forward. Unlike most young catchers, Hernandez can both field and hit well, showing power, on-base ability, the ability to keep strikeouts down, and all around good defense behind the plate. He has not played above Class A, which unfortunately gives the bat plenty of time to falter, but his ability to find the barrel and make consistent loud contact should help mitigate some risk. Hernandez has the ceiling of a solid starting catcher who can actually be a net-positive at the plate, unlike most MLB catchers in today's game. 22 year old Taylor Walls spent the entire season in Class A, which is not ideal for a 2017 college draftee (third round, 79th overall out of Florida State), but he was young for a college junior and slashed .304/.393/.428 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an 80/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Bowling Green. He brings an advanced approach at the plate, lots of line drive contact, and good speed as well as sound infield defense. He should be able to handle shortstop and profiles best as a utility infielder, one who won't hit for much power but who can get on base and play pretty much any position. 17 year old Wander Franco, not to be confused with his brother, Astros prospect Wander Franco, his other brother, Giants prospect Wander Franco, or his father, former minor leaguer Wander Franco, is the best and most exciting prospect in this system (and the best of all the Wander Franco's). At just 17 years old, Franco slashed .351/.418/.587 with eleven home runs and a 19/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Princeton, showing an exceptional feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, more power than you'd expect from a 5'10" teenager, and the possibility to stay at shortstop, all well shy of even being able to legally buy a lottery ticket. Players can develop offensive skill sets like Franco's, but they rarely if ever do it at that age and virtually never while being able to play the middle infield. A lot can happen between rookie ball and the majors, but Franco is set to turn 18 during spring training and he is already way, way, way ahead of the curve. His ceiling is that of a perennial All Star. 22 year old Tyler Frank, a Florida native and Florida Atlantic University alum, was the Rays' second round pick (56th overall) in 2018 and got off to a hot start by slashing .288/.425/.412 with two home runs and a 28/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at short season Hudson Valley. While he doesn't have much punch in his bat yet, his advanced approach at the plate will help him move quickly through the minors and could give him a job as a utility man in the near future. If he adds a little power like he is capable of, he has a shot at competing for a starting spot at shortstop or second base. Lastly, 18 year old Nick Schnell was a compensation round pick (32nd overall) out of an Indianapolis high school in 2018 and didn't get off to quite as fast of a start, slashing .239/.378/.373 with one home run and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in complex ball. He has plenty of raw power and the patience to help inflate his on-base percentages, and the Rays hope that once he gets some development time under his belt after playing high school ball in the Midwest, he can blossom into a middle of the order hitter whose great right field defense can help make him an impact player. Of course, the 18 year old has a lot to work on to get there.
Mid and Upper Minors Arms: RHP Brent Honeywell, LHP Colin Poche, RHP Rollie Lacy, RHP Phoenix Sanders, LHP Resly Linares, RHP Tobias Myers, and RHP Austin Franklin
The Rays get deeper and deeper in arms the lower you go in the farm system, with the recent graduations of Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek, and many others, as well as the trades of Brock Burke and Genesis Cabrera, thinning the group at the top. 23 year old Brent Honeywell should have been on that graduation list as well, but he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery and lasts another year on prospect lists. Honeywell is a 6'2" right handed pitcher who checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball complimented by a full array of secondaries, most notably a devastating screwball. He also adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which except the curve can get consistent swings and misses, and he commands everything extremely well. He would have been yet another one of the big names in the 2018 rookie class had he not gone down with surgery, but he'll get another shot in 2019 to prove that he's the real deal. Honeywell has the ceiling of a true ace, and if he comes back healthy and the same pitcher he was before the surgery, he'll be at least an effective #4 starter. 25 year old Colin Poche has been absolutely lights out since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the 14th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2016 (10-3, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 227/55 K/BB career), and he topped it off with arguably the minors' best season by a reliever in 2018: 6-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 110/19 K/BB in 66 innings between AA and AAA. That's right, the 6'3" lefty struck out 45.6% of those he faced, walked just 7.9%, and allowed just seven runs (six earned) to cross the plate in 66 innings of work in the minor leagues' highest levels. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but gets lots of deception and lands it right where he wants it, adding a hard, effective slider to keep hitters off balance and rack up the strikeouts. He has a classic set-up profile and should be an impact reliever for the Rays beginning in 2019. 23 year old Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton Bluejay who was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade in 2018, then from the Rangers to the Rays in a massive three team deal this offseason, posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A in 2018. He sits right around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent curve and changeup, but everything plays up due to his command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He looks like a #5 starter or a long reliever at this point. 23 year old Phoenix Sanders is a local product as a native of Gainesville, Florida and a former USF Bull, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings between Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. He's a 5'10" righty with a low 90's fastball and a decent slider and changeup, but he controls everything well and should be a useful middle reliever in the near future. 21 year old Resly Linares has quietly jumped onto national prospect radars over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 97/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings at Bowling Green in 2018. Linares doesn't throw that hard and sits in the low 90's, adding a good curveball and a fairly advanced changeup that he has decent command of. He's fairly projectable at 6'2" and as a lefty, he has a high floor and will be useful in a variety of roles. Overall, he projects as a #3 or #4 starter, but I get a good feeling that 2019 could be a breakout season and he could be much more. 20 year old Tobias Myers, another local product (Winter Haven, FL), got out of that dreadful Orioles' pitching development program in the Tim Beckham trade and has improved considerably with the Rays, posting a 3.71 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 101/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings at Class A Bowling Green in 2018. He's just six feet tall but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, commanding everything fairly well and looking like a solid #3 or #4 starter on the right days. He still needs to get more consistent with that command and improve his changeup, but he's a nice arm to track and the Rays do well with developing pitchers. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Franklin is yet another Florida arm (from Paxton, up in the panhandle on the Alabama line), and he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Bowling Green. He has better stuff than all the Bowling Green arms listed before him on this list (Sanders, Linares, Myers), coming in with a low 90's fastball, a power curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which generate outs in their own ways. However, the 6'3" righty has very mediocre command and gets hit far harder than he should, leading to a lower strikeout rate that is a bit of a red flag for now. However, the Rays will continuously work with him to hit his spots and get ahead in the count, which will help his stuff play up and push him towards being a solid #3 starter. However, without the command, he risks being bumped to the bullpen.
Low Minors Arms: RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP Shane Baz, RHP Michael Mercado, LHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Matthew Liberatore, and RHP Sandy Gaston
The Rays probably have the best collection of low minors pitchers in the game, especially if you throw in Resly Linares, Tobias Myers, and Austin Franklin up at Class A. I really like a lot of these guys, and I think they could pull quite a few impact pitchers out of the group. 22 year old Simon Rosenblum-Larson is actually the lowest regarded prospect in this group, but I had to include him after a fantastic debut where he posted a 1.16 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 62/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings between short season Hudson Valley and Class A Bowling Green this year. He was a 19th round pick out of Harvard in 2018, and he actually faltered over his last few appearances of the season; through August 24th, he had a 0.25 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 58/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 36.2 innings, having allowed just one earned run through those 36.2 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but has a great feel for pitching and mixes his pitches effectively, and he'll look to rise as a middle reliever type. 19 year old Shane Baz came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade, and he is immensely talented despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. In 2018, he posted a 4.47 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball, flashing great stuff but showing that his command might be a little further behind than anticipated. Baz is a 6'3" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very deep arsenal of secondary pitches, all of which are very effective. He brings a hard cutter that gives hitters a different look from his fastball, throws both a slider and a curveball with significant bat-missing ability, and adds a solid changeup. With all of these pitches, his command sometimes falters and he hasn't always been the most consistent with his delivery, leading to him getting hit harder than he should. Still, he won't turn 20 until June and scouts love his makeup and competitiveness, giving him top of the rotation potential if he can pull it all together. 19 year old Michael Mercado is another high school draftee from that 2017 class (second round, 40th overall from San Diego) that has gotten off to a slow start. In 2018, Mercado posted a 5.22 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 38/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings at Hudson Valley, struggling to miss bats as he learned to command his pitches. He sits in the low 90's and adds a pretty good curveball, but his control is ahead of his command at this point and that is where he gets hurt with his decent stuff. He's extremely projectable at 6'4" and I really liked him on draft day in 2017, and he's really only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a prospect and potential mid-rotation arm. At this point, though, his mean projection is looking more like a #4 or #5 starter without those steps forward. 21 year old Shane McClanahan was the Rays' compensation pick (31st overall) in the 2018 draft out of USF, a year after his college teammate Phoenix Sanders was a tenth rounder to Tampa. McClanahan, a Florida Gulf Coast native from Cape Coral, was sharp in his debut and tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, one walk, and 13 strikeouts between complex ball and rookie level Princeton, though he faltered in the Appalachian League playoffs and allowed four runs in three innings. He's a 6'1" lefty with a blazing fastball that sits in the upper 90's, adding a decent slider and a great changeup to keep hitters off balance. However, he struggles with his command and with the lack of a good breaking ball, he has some adjustments to make in his transition to full season ball in 2019. In order to remain a starter, he'll either have to improve his command or slider, though improving both could make him a #2 guy. Without big steps forward in either of those areas, though, McClanahan runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball/changeup combination could make him a high-leverage reliever. 19 year old Matthew Liberatore, the Rays' first round pick (16th overall) out of high school in Phoenix, was one of my favorite draft prospects ever and he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 37/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings between complex ball and Princeton. Liberatore is a 6'5" lefty who has a ton of similarities to Clayton Kershaw including size, handedness, velocity, breaking balls, command, and even delivery. He sits in the low 90's projects for more, and he has already hit 97 a few times. When it comes to offspeeds, he adds a big breaking curveball, a new, sharp slider, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands and mixes well. I am a huge fan of Liberatore's ceiling as a guy who could have plus stuff and plus command, and while most project him as a mid-rotation starter, I think he has #2 or even ace upside. Keep a close eye on Liberatore in 2019. Lastly, 17 year old Sandy Gaston has not appeared in the minor leagues but he throws comfortably in the mid 90's from a projectable 6'3" frame. These young teenagers can develop in any number of directions, especially given that Gaston won't turn 18 until after the 2019 season, but he has high upside if he can improve his command and secondary pitches.
Two Way Players: Brendan McKay and Tanner Dodson
No, I didn't forget these guys. As far as I know, there are four legitimate two-way players in American pro baseball, and the Rays have the second and third best behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of my former high school teammate Andy McGuire (now in the Blue Jays' system). 23 year old Brendan McKay's arm is ahead of his bat, and in 2018 he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 103/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings between complex ball rehab, Class A Bowling Green, and High A Charlotte. He's a 6'2" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball to go along with a cutter and a changeup, and he commands everything very well. He's a classic innings eating, mid-rotation starter with a high floor as a back-end guy. At the plate, he slashed .214/.368/.359 with six home runs and a 52/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at the same levels, showing great plate discipline but struggling to tap into the home run power that got him drafted as a two way player. The Rays are shifting him from first base to DH for the 2019 season, which they hope will help him develop both as a pitcher and a hitter with one less thing on his plate. He still has a shot at being a 25 homer bat, but he'll need to start tapping into that power in 2019 if he wants to get that chance. 21 year old Tanner Dodson isn't a starter like McKay, instead splitting time between the bullpen and the outfield at California before being drafted in the competitive balance round (71st overall) in 2018. On the mound, he posted a 1.44 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at short season Hudson Valley, showing a mid 90's fastball and a great slider that misses bats. He also commands both pitches well, giving him the set-up man upside. At the plate, Dodson slashed .273/.344/.369 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 34/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games for Hudson Valley, showing more speed and contact than power. He actually could stick in center field and he has a sound enough approach and bat-to-ball skill set that he could be a useful fourth outfielder, but I see his future as being on the mound. We'll see how the Rays deal with that in 2019.
Sunday, June 18, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays
First 5 rounds: Brendan McKay (1-4), Drew Rasmussen (CBA-31), Michael Mercado (2-40), Taylor Walls (3-79), Drew Strotman (4-109), Josh Fleming (5-139).
Also notable: Zach Rutherford (6-169), Phoenix Sanders (10-269), Gavin Williams (30-889), Chris Williams (31-919), J.J. Schwarz (38-1129).
The Rays are a small-market team, so they know that nailing the draft is crucial to success. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they did a pretty good job this year. The Rays are one of the better teams in baseball when it comes to developing pitching, but they have struggled to develop raw hitting talent. They know this, so they took 9.5 pitchers with their first twelve picks (we'll get to McKay) and didn't pop a high school hitter until the 37th round. I like what they got, though, drafting to their strength in development so they can trade for/sign what they need later.
1-4: 1B/LHP Brendan McKay (my rank: 3)
Brendan McKay was the most interesting player in this draft, so this will be a long paragraph. A favorite to go #1 overall throughout the spring, he fell to the Rays at #4, who snatched him up with glee. The hitter vs pitcher debate has raged since he was a prep star at Beaver Falls High School in western Pennsylvania, and we still don't have clarity on it today. The Rays officially drafted him as a first baseman after he slashed .328/.432/.533 with 27 home runs over three seasons Louisville, one of the best teams in the country, but McKay will actually play both ways, at least in the short run. In addition to his monster career at the plate for the Cardinals, McKay has also gone 31-10 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 53 games (46 starts). The Rays will likely make him a hitter, where he has both a high floor and a good ceiling as an All Star first baseman. On the mound, he is as safe a bet as any to start in the majors, and he realistically projects as a mid-rotation starter with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the class, all of which he commands well. I said earlier that the Rays struggle to develop hitting to its full potential; that is OK with McKay, because he's so advanced at the plate (and the on the mound) that he won't need much developing anyways. For now, it will be exciting to see a two-way star in the minor leagues.
CBA-31: RHP Drew Rasmussen (my rank: 86)
It's tough to get a read on Rasmussen because last year's Tommy John surgery limited him to just twelve appearances in the past two seasons, but he has performed well in those games, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP while striking out 64 to just 15 walks for Oregon State. The 6'1" righty throws in the low to mid 90's with a decent slider/changeup combination, and he could be a big league starter if he can stay healthy. However, he's more likely to end up in the bullpen, especially given Tampa Bay's starting pitching depth in their system, where his fastball can touch the upper 90's and he can focus on one offspeed pitch. He did throw a perfect game against Washington State as a freshman in 2015.
2-40: RHP Michael Mercado (my rank: 50)
I really like this pick, especially for the Rays. Mercado is an advanced high school righty with a low 90's fastball that he can command well, and while his curveball, cutter, and two-seamer are closer to above average than plus, he has a feel for all of them, giving him a relatively high floor for a high school pitcher. Skinny and projectable, he has a higher ceiling than most pitchability right handers, and the Rays have gotten the most out of pitching prospects like this in the past (Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu).
3-79: SS Taylor Walls (my rank: 115)
I don't love this pick as much as the Mercado pick, but Walls is exactly the type of hitter the Rays like: advanced at the plate, athletic in the field. After a huge sophomore season for Florida State (.355/.479/.516, 6 HR), he saw his stock fall when he struggled in 2017 (.276/.421/.428, 8 HR), though he did get hot down the stretch, which I failed to account for in my rankings. Walls has an innate ability to get on base, drawing 174 walks over three years at FSU to give himself a career OBP of .426. Though he hit 14 home runs during his career for the Seminoles, I doubt he ever hits for even average power, with a swing that is geared towards line drives and one that swings and misses more when he tries to hit for power. I saw him play when FSU came to Virginia Tech in March, and I came away thinking of him as a future Greg Garcia-like utility guy.
6-169: SS Zach Rutherford (my rank: 113)
Rutherford is a similar player to Walls as a college shortstop, but he is scrappier, has less power, and less of a keen eye than Walls. He slashed .332/.397/.472 with a pair of home runs for Old Dominion University this year, but what makes him stand out is his hard-nosed, competitive attitude. He doesn't have the pretties mechanics, but he will compete with Walls going up the ladder to see which can crack the Rays' bench, or starting lineup, first.
38-1129: C/1B J.J. Schwarz (my rank: 144)
Schwarz is a bit of an enigma. His monster freshman season in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR) in the SEC put him on the map as a potential first overall pick in 2017, but he has struggled to live up to expectations over the past two seasons for Florida (.281/.383/.463, 19 HR). His stock really fell when he looked completely lost out of the gate this year, and only a late-season surge was able to save his draft stock from disappearing completely. He has a clean swing, but SEC pitchers have been able to expose holes in his pitch recognition fairly easily, and because Mike Rivera spent the season as the Gators' starting catcher, scouts didn't get many looks at Schwarz behind the plate. It's unlikely that he sticks back there, but he does have a chance to be a catcher. However, because he was drafted in the 38th round, I think it's highly likely that he returns to school and tries to improve his stock.
Others: 4th rounder Drew Strotman is a power pitcher out of St. Mary's College of California, where he has never really been a big performer, but his stuff will play well in the bullpen. Once he converts to relieving full time, his fastball could sit in the mid 90's while his slider could reach the upper 80's. 5th rounder Josh Fleming is the first player ever drafted out of Webster University in Missouri, where he was arguably Division III's best pitcher with a 90 MPH fastball that he commanded extremely well. He's a project because his secondaries need lots of work, but the Rays know what they're doing when it comes to young pitching. 10th rounder Phoenix Sanders was the ace of the South Florida pitching staff this year, going 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP for the Bulls, striking out 109 in 97 innings. Though undersized at 5'10", his proven track record in the American Athletic Conference is a good get in the tenth round. 30th rounder Gavin Williams cracked my rankings at #119, but he's unlikely to sign this low in the draft. Williams, a high schooler from North Carolina, stands 6'6" and can already run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his curveball could be a plus pitch if developed right. Currently, it's a softer pitch, and his mechanics need an overhaul, but he's a high ceiling guy who will likely end up at East Carolina University. In the 31st round, Tampa Bay picked up Clemson catcher Chris Williams, who shows big time power (14 HR this year) but has trouble getting on base consistently (.320 OBP), and he may have trouble catching up to pro pitching. It looks like he'll return to Clemson for his senior year.
Also notable: Zach Rutherford (6-169), Phoenix Sanders (10-269), Gavin Williams (30-889), Chris Williams (31-919), J.J. Schwarz (38-1129).
The Rays are a small-market team, so they know that nailing the draft is crucial to success. Luckily for Tampa Bay, they did a pretty good job this year. The Rays are one of the better teams in baseball when it comes to developing pitching, but they have struggled to develop raw hitting talent. They know this, so they took 9.5 pitchers with their first twelve picks (we'll get to McKay) and didn't pop a high school hitter until the 37th round. I like what they got, though, drafting to their strength in development so they can trade for/sign what they need later.
1-4: 1B/LHP Brendan McKay (my rank: 3)
Brendan McKay was the most interesting player in this draft, so this will be a long paragraph. A favorite to go #1 overall throughout the spring, he fell to the Rays at #4, who snatched him up with glee. The hitter vs pitcher debate has raged since he was a prep star at Beaver Falls High School in western Pennsylvania, and we still don't have clarity on it today. The Rays officially drafted him as a first baseman after he slashed .328/.432/.533 with 27 home runs over three seasons Louisville, one of the best teams in the country, but McKay will actually play both ways, at least in the short run. In addition to his monster career at the plate for the Cardinals, McKay has also gone 31-10 with a 2.15 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 53 games (46 starts). The Rays will likely make him a hitter, where he has both a high floor and a good ceiling as an All Star first baseman. On the mound, he is as safe a bet as any to start in the majors, and he realistically projects as a mid-rotation starter with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the class, all of which he commands well. I said earlier that the Rays struggle to develop hitting to its full potential; that is OK with McKay, because he's so advanced at the plate (and the on the mound) that he won't need much developing anyways. For now, it will be exciting to see a two-way star in the minor leagues.
CBA-31: RHP Drew Rasmussen (my rank: 86)
It's tough to get a read on Rasmussen because last year's Tommy John surgery limited him to just twelve appearances in the past two seasons, but he has performed well in those games, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP while striking out 64 to just 15 walks for Oregon State. The 6'1" righty throws in the low to mid 90's with a decent slider/changeup combination, and he could be a big league starter if he can stay healthy. However, he's more likely to end up in the bullpen, especially given Tampa Bay's starting pitching depth in their system, where his fastball can touch the upper 90's and he can focus on one offspeed pitch. He did throw a perfect game against Washington State as a freshman in 2015.
2-40: RHP Michael Mercado (my rank: 50)
I really like this pick, especially for the Rays. Mercado is an advanced high school righty with a low 90's fastball that he can command well, and while his curveball, cutter, and two-seamer are closer to above average than plus, he has a feel for all of them, giving him a relatively high floor for a high school pitcher. Skinny and projectable, he has a higher ceiling than most pitchability right handers, and the Rays have gotten the most out of pitching prospects like this in the past (Jacob Faria, Chih-Wei Hu).
3-79: SS Taylor Walls (my rank: 115)
I don't love this pick as much as the Mercado pick, but Walls is exactly the type of hitter the Rays like: advanced at the plate, athletic in the field. After a huge sophomore season for Florida State (.355/.479/.516, 6 HR), he saw his stock fall when he struggled in 2017 (.276/.421/.428, 8 HR), though he did get hot down the stretch, which I failed to account for in my rankings. Walls has an innate ability to get on base, drawing 174 walks over three years at FSU to give himself a career OBP of .426. Though he hit 14 home runs during his career for the Seminoles, I doubt he ever hits for even average power, with a swing that is geared towards line drives and one that swings and misses more when he tries to hit for power. I saw him play when FSU came to Virginia Tech in March, and I came away thinking of him as a future Greg Garcia-like utility guy.
6-169: SS Zach Rutherford (my rank: 113)
Rutherford is a similar player to Walls as a college shortstop, but he is scrappier, has less power, and less of a keen eye than Walls. He slashed .332/.397/.472 with a pair of home runs for Old Dominion University this year, but what makes him stand out is his hard-nosed, competitive attitude. He doesn't have the pretties mechanics, but he will compete with Walls going up the ladder to see which can crack the Rays' bench, or starting lineup, first.
38-1129: C/1B J.J. Schwarz (my rank: 144)
Schwarz is a bit of an enigma. His monster freshman season in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR) in the SEC put him on the map as a potential first overall pick in 2017, but he has struggled to live up to expectations over the past two seasons for Florida (.281/.383/.463, 19 HR). His stock really fell when he looked completely lost out of the gate this year, and only a late-season surge was able to save his draft stock from disappearing completely. He has a clean swing, but SEC pitchers have been able to expose holes in his pitch recognition fairly easily, and because Mike Rivera spent the season as the Gators' starting catcher, scouts didn't get many looks at Schwarz behind the plate. It's unlikely that he sticks back there, but he does have a chance to be a catcher. However, because he was drafted in the 38th round, I think it's highly likely that he returns to school and tries to improve his stock.
Others: 4th rounder Drew Strotman is a power pitcher out of St. Mary's College of California, where he has never really been a big performer, but his stuff will play well in the bullpen. Once he converts to relieving full time, his fastball could sit in the mid 90's while his slider could reach the upper 80's. 5th rounder Josh Fleming is the first player ever drafted out of Webster University in Missouri, where he was arguably Division III's best pitcher with a 90 MPH fastball that he commanded extremely well. He's a project because his secondaries need lots of work, but the Rays know what they're doing when it comes to young pitching. 10th rounder Phoenix Sanders was the ace of the South Florida pitching staff this year, going 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP for the Bulls, striking out 109 in 97 innings. Though undersized at 5'10", his proven track record in the American Athletic Conference is a good get in the tenth round. 30th rounder Gavin Williams cracked my rankings at #119, but he's unlikely to sign this low in the draft. Williams, a high schooler from North Carolina, stands 6'6" and can already run his fastball into the mid 90's, and his curveball could be a plus pitch if developed right. Currently, it's a softer pitch, and his mechanics need an overhaul, but he's a high ceiling guy who will likely end up at East Carolina University. In the 31st round, Tampa Bay picked up Clemson catcher Chris Williams, who shows big time power (14 HR this year) but has trouble getting on base consistently (.320 OBP), and he may have trouble catching up to pro pitching. It looks like he'll return to Clemson for his senior year.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Power Hitters
First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Friday, June 9, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Safe Bet College Starters
1st Tier: Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
Sunday, June 4, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Brendan McKay
1B/LHP Brendan McKay (University of Louisville): 6'2", 210 lbs, born 12/18/1995.
Overview
Hit: 60. Power: 55. Run: 35. Throw: 60. Field: 55.
Fastball: 55. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Over his three years at Louisville, Brendan McKay has established himself as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, two-way player of all time, right up there with Minnesota's Dave Winfield, Washington State's John Olerud, and, more recently, Kentucky's A.J. Reed. While those players were drafted 4th overall (1973), 79th overall (1989), and 42nd overall (2014), respectively, McKay will likely beat all of them, with as good a shot as any player in this draft to go first overall. While he doesn't have the highest ceiling, McKay's floor as both a pitcher and a hitter is as high as anybody's, and he's arguably the safest bet to reach the majors in this draft, whether that's as a first baseman or as a starting pitcher.
Hitting Strengths
McKay has a track record of performance in college baseball's second toughest conference, slashing .332/.435/.541 over three years in the ACC. His bat has taken a step forward this season, with the most notable piece of his .357/.474/.688 slash line being the big increase in power. His isolated power rose from .123 as a freshman to .180 as a sophomore before skyrocketing to .332 this season, and he has done so without a big increase in strikeouts (rates of 16.4%, 12.5%, 14.1% over his three years). He's also walking more than ever this year, upping his rate to 17.3% and maintaining more walks (43) than strikeouts (35). His best offensive tool is his hit tool, but his power is not far behind, especially after his breakout this season, and it is not at all difficult to imagine him putting up Joey Votto type numbers at the plate, albeit with fewer walks. Though he is limited to first base defensively, he works well around the bag and should be a positive-value player on defense with his solid glove and plus arm.
Hitting Weaknesses
Really, there aren't many. He doesn't quite have the ceiling of other college bats like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, or Jeren Kendall, but he has a higher floor than any of them. As a first baseman, there will always be pressure on his bat, but that shouldn't be an issue. He's also a well below average runner, but when you're hitting dingers all day, you can take as long as you want to round the bases.
Pitching Strengths
Again, the key word is floor. He's been an excellent performer in the ACC on the mound as well, posting a career 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 376/109 strikeout to walk ratio over 303.2 innings. McKay works in anywhere from 88-95 with his fastball, usually beginning his starts at the upper end and finishing off at the lower end. His command is so good, though, that he is still a very tough pitcher to face even when he's sitting in the high 80's late in starts. His curveball rivals that of Alex Lange for the best in the college crop, with big break and good location. His changeup is present, and while it isn't the best in the class, he has a feel for it and should have no problem cracking a big league rotation soon. If he's drafted as a pitcher and everything goes well, he could realistically make an Opening Day MLB rotation in 2019. Left handed college pitchers tend to do very well on draft day.
Pitching Weaknesses
He does have a few more weaknesses as a pitcher than as a hitter. The lack of a high ceiling is present as well, and his velocity does fade during his starts. There has also been reports that his velocity has faded overall as the season wore on, possibly due to overuse. While he has a higher floor as a pitcher than as a hitter, he also has lower upside, and it's tough to see him as anything more than a #2 or #3 starter. That's not a bad ceiling at all, but we are talking about a potential #1 overall pick.
Pitcher or Hitter?
Scouts are very much split, and we likely won't have any idea right up until he hears his name called somewhere in the top five picks on Draft Day. Personally, though it's not a strong preference, I prefer him as a hitter. The higher ceiling and the real lack of any weaknesses in his game, aside from his running speed, make me believe he is the top bat in this entire draft. I'd still take him in the top five as a pitcher, but I'd strongly consider him for first overall as a hitter. The bat is too polished to pass up for me, especially considering the added power and loft in his swing this season.
Overview
Hit: 60. Power: 55. Run: 35. Throw: 60. Field: 55.
Fastball: 55. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
Over his three years at Louisville, Brendan McKay has established himself as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, two-way player of all time, right up there with Minnesota's Dave Winfield, Washington State's John Olerud, and, more recently, Kentucky's A.J. Reed. While those players were drafted 4th overall (1973), 79th overall (1989), and 42nd overall (2014), respectively, McKay will likely beat all of them, with as good a shot as any player in this draft to go first overall. While he doesn't have the highest ceiling, McKay's floor as both a pitcher and a hitter is as high as anybody's, and he's arguably the safest bet to reach the majors in this draft, whether that's as a first baseman or as a starting pitcher.
Hitting Strengths
McKay has a track record of performance in college baseball's second toughest conference, slashing .332/.435/.541 over three years in the ACC. His bat has taken a step forward this season, with the most notable piece of his .357/.474/.688 slash line being the big increase in power. His isolated power rose from .123 as a freshman to .180 as a sophomore before skyrocketing to .332 this season, and he has done so without a big increase in strikeouts (rates of 16.4%, 12.5%, 14.1% over his three years). He's also walking more than ever this year, upping his rate to 17.3% and maintaining more walks (43) than strikeouts (35). His best offensive tool is his hit tool, but his power is not far behind, especially after his breakout this season, and it is not at all difficult to imagine him putting up Joey Votto type numbers at the plate, albeit with fewer walks. Though he is limited to first base defensively, he works well around the bag and should be a positive-value player on defense with his solid glove and plus arm.
Hitting Weaknesses
Really, there aren't many. He doesn't quite have the ceiling of other college bats like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, or Jeren Kendall, but he has a higher floor than any of them. As a first baseman, there will always be pressure on his bat, but that shouldn't be an issue. He's also a well below average runner, but when you're hitting dingers all day, you can take as long as you want to round the bases.
Pitching Strengths
Again, the key word is floor. He's been an excellent performer in the ACC on the mound as well, posting a career 2.13 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 376/109 strikeout to walk ratio over 303.2 innings. McKay works in anywhere from 88-95 with his fastball, usually beginning his starts at the upper end and finishing off at the lower end. His command is so good, though, that he is still a very tough pitcher to face even when he's sitting in the high 80's late in starts. His curveball rivals that of Alex Lange for the best in the college crop, with big break and good location. His changeup is present, and while it isn't the best in the class, he has a feel for it and should have no problem cracking a big league rotation soon. If he's drafted as a pitcher and everything goes well, he could realistically make an Opening Day MLB rotation in 2019. Left handed college pitchers tend to do very well on draft day.
Pitching Weaknesses
He does have a few more weaknesses as a pitcher than as a hitter. The lack of a high ceiling is present as well, and his velocity does fade during his starts. There has also been reports that his velocity has faded overall as the season wore on, possibly due to overuse. While he has a higher floor as a pitcher than as a hitter, he also has lower upside, and it's tough to see him as anything more than a #2 or #3 starter. That's not a bad ceiling at all, but we are talking about a potential #1 overall pick.
Pitcher or Hitter?
Scouts are very much split, and we likely won't have any idea right up until he hears his name called somewhere in the top five picks on Draft Day. Personally, though it's not a strong preference, I prefer him as a hitter. The higher ceiling and the real lack of any weaknesses in his game, aside from his running speed, make me believe he is the top bat in this entire draft. I'd still take him in the top five as a pitcher, but I'd strongly consider him for first overall as a hitter. The bat is too polished to pass up for me, especially considering the added power and loft in his swing this season.
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