1B Pavin Smith (University of Virginia): 6'2", 210 lbs, born 2/6/1996
Overview
Hit: 55. Power: 55. Field: 55. Throw: 50. Run: 35.
Pavin Smith entered the season as a potential first round pick, and he has exceeded expectations this spring. One of the best (if not the best) pure hitters in his draft class, Smith right now has a chance to be drafted in the top ten picks, projecting as a player similar to Adam LaRoche. Let's break down the UVA first baseman.
Strengths
Smith has a hitters' frame at a listed 6'2", 210 pounds from the left side, with long levers to generate plenty of power. Speaking of power, he has shifted his approach this season from more of a contact/line drive approach to a power one, as he is turning on more pitches this year and trying to use his considerable raw power to his advantage. Like most UVA hitters, he is a very polished hitter as well, as his 5/19 strikeout to walk rate (2.9% to 11.2%) so far this season (April 15th) emphasizes. Often, when a player has a big power jump, other components of his hitting suffer. The fact that Pavin has been able to support his big jump in power with better plate discipline and a continued ability to get on base bode very well for his future offensive development. He is also an athletic, slick fielding first baseman, so he's no defensive liability. When I got the chance to watch him play against Virginia Tech, he even robbed a home run while playing left field.
Weaknesses
I watched him play parts of four games (one against Duke, parts of three against Virginia Tech), and not once have I seen him do anything but pull the ball. He was out in front of a lot of pitches, causing him to yank more than a couple sharp line drives and ground balls well foul down the first base line. Combined with the fact that he has worked more on pulling the ball, this makes Smith (at this point) an extreme pull hitter. It is most likely something that can be fixed, but it is something to be mindful of. Smith is also a very slow runner, but with the offensive package he provides, that is okay.
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