Showing posts with label Aidan Maldonado. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aidan Maldonado. Show all posts

Friday, July 29, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers clearly had a type in this draft, with each of the first four position players they drafted standing 5'10" or shorter (and number five was still only an even six foot). They prioritized bat to ball skills and professional approaches at the plate, with college bats like Eric Brown, Robert Moore, and Matt Wood bringing a high floor with and Dylan O'Rae appearing to be a bit of a sleeper. The one pitcher they took early on, Jacob Misiorowski, has the exact opposite profile as a 6'7" fireballer with one of the most electric fastballs in the class. He signed for a much bigger bonus than many in the industry expected, which may jeopardize their prized day three selections. Just like last year, Milwaukee shot for the moon on day three and drafted numerous high end high school talents that appeared hell-bent on attending school, with the hopes of signing maybe two or three. Now with Misiorowski's big bonus, the most they can offer any individual day three prepster is just short of $700,000, which seems like it would not be enough to land either LSU commit in Brady Neal or Jaden Noot.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-27: SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #27.
Slot value: $2.70 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($651,900 below slot value).
The Brewers started off on the right foot by drafting Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown, long a favorite of analytics-driven scouts coming off his best year yet for the Chanticleers. In 57 games, Brown slashed .330/.460/.544 with seven home runs and an extremely impressive 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio, including five walks to just one strikeout at the Greenville Regional. The first thing you'll notice watching him play is his unique setup at the plate, in which he starts with his hands held right next to his ear while wiggling the bat back towards the third base dugout behind him. From there, he brings those hands forward across his cheek and points the bat head directly at the pitcher, then quickly brings them back to his back shoulder to get ready for the pitch. A traditional, square peg square hole coach would see this and scream about all the wasted movement, but Brown has impeccable timing and is always perfectly in position to hit when the time comes. From there, the Shreveport-area native stands out for his extraordinary plate discipline, with just enough patience to rarely chase pitches out of the zone but still plenty of decisiveness to attack pitches he likes. By swinging at good pitches, he's able to channel his wiry strength into consistently high exit velocities, employing a line drive approach that sends balls screaming around the diamond. Undersized at 5'10", he hasn't shown much over the fence power with just sixteen career home runs in 123 games at Coastal Carolina, but given his ability to sting the baseball with regularity he could tap into 15-20 home run power or more in the big leagues if he starts to lift it more often. While he lacks explosive athleticism, he's balanced and fluid at shortstop with a strong arm, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position. If not, he could be a plus defender at second or third base. Brown should move quickly through the minors and could hit atop the Brewers' lineup sooner rather than later.

2-63: RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Crowder JC. My rank: #66.
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($1.22 million above slot value).
Jacob Misiorowski is one of the more unique arms in this class, one who had some late helium and had interest much earlier in the second round. Signability pushed him down a bit and he signed with Milwaukee for more than double slot value (and more than Eric Brown received at the 27th pick), closer to the slot value of the 32nd pick. If you remember back to the 2019 draft, the Brewers picked up Wabash Valley JC lefty Antoine Kelly with the 65th pick, and Misiorowski at #63 is extremely similar. The 6'7" righty dominated at Crowder JC in southwestern Missouri, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 136/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings on the strength of his wicked stuff. It's a profile dominated by the fastball, as he sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's and can pop for triple digits at his best, coming from a lower release point with elite extension that gives it a ton of life beyond just its premium velocity. When located, it's truly one of the best fastballs in the entire class. Misiorowski also works in a short, power slider that gets into the upper 80's, though it's an average pitch on its own that missed a ton of bats at Crowder because hitters were so overwhelmed by his fastball. He doesn't throw much of a changeup for now, which will need to be a major emphasis in his development if he wants to start. The Kansas City-area native also struggles to keep his ultra long limbs in check, struggling to repeat his delivery at times and leading to below average command. As a JUCO sophomore, he only turned 20 in April and has plenty of time to figure things out. The Brewers will need to put a lot of work into this project in streamlining his delivery and developing his secondaries, but the upside is massive because you just can't teach the combination of power and extension he brings to the table. Kelly, a lefty, had the same height and a similarly explosive fastball out of Wabash Valley JC, but his secondaries and command were even less refined than Misiorowski's and he looks to be breaking out at High A Wisconsin this year.

CBB-72: SS Robert Moore, Arkansas. My rank: #104.
Slot value: $915,300. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($115,300 below slot value).
Robert Moore has another extremely unique profile, though it's on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Jacob Misiorowski. The son of Royals GM Dayton Moore, Robert graduated early from his Kansas City-area high school (in fact just 23 miles west of Misiorowski's high school) to enroll at Arkansas and set the world on fire as an underclassman. Despite playing his first college game at just 17 years old, he slashed .291/.388/.534 with 18 home runs in 76 games over his first two collegiate seasons. After hitting .351 for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, he entered this spring with sky high expectations and plenty of interest throughout the first round. However, 2022 did more to highlight the weaknesses in his game than the strengths, and he finished with just a .232/.374/.427 slash line, eight home runs, and a 46/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. So who is Robert Moore? Listed at just 5'9" and skinny at that, he doesn't stand out on the baseball field, but his intangibles absolutely do. He has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone for such a young hitter (he still only turned 20 in March), is completely unfazed by advanced stuff and makes hard contact to all fields. A switch hitter, Moore takes big, healthy hacks from both sides of the plate that helped him tap some solid pull side power as an underclassman, especially from the left side, but that power did not show up with wood over the summer and his unremarkable 2022 calls that power potential further into question. He'll likely have to resort to more of a line drive approach in pro ball, where he could hit 10-15 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at best if everything translates and he recaptures his 2020-2021 form. Defensively, Moore provides plenty of value with excellent instincts at second base, plenty of range, and just enough arm strength to get it done. The Brewers drafted him as a shortstop and there is a chance he could work there, with those instincts and range hopefully making up for his arm. Ultimately, I see a utility type that will be a great addition in the clubhouse, as he was known as a true catalyst at Arkansas that could fire up his team when they needed it.

3-102: SS Dylan O'Rae, Northern Collegiate HS [ON]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $600,700. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($3,200 below slot value).
This pick came completely out of left field, completely stumping the MLB.com analysts if you were watching. Dylan O'Rae was not ranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250, nor on the Baseball America 500 or the Prospects Live top 600. Undersized at 5'9" (much like Robert Moore directly above him), he will need to get much more physical to compete in the pro game, but the raw skills are absolutely there. O'Rae has very quick hands in the box with an explosive left handed swing, and as he puts on weight and physically matures, he could tap some solid power at the next level. He performed well at showcase events with good feel to use the whole field, and he's a plus runner that makes things happen. The Ontario product also plays a solid shortstop and could stick there, again, if he gets a little bigger and stronger, making this a very well rounded package. He signed with the Brewers rather than attend Illinois, where he could have emerged in three years as a second rounder with a track record of performance.

4-132: C Matt Wood, Penn State. My rank: #125.
Slot value: $448,400. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($100,900 below slot value).
The Brewers shored up their catching depth with an all-around contributor in Matt Wood. Wood was a solid catcher in State College before breaking out for a huge 2022, slashing .379/.480/.667 with 12 home runs and a 26/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's not overly physical at 5'10", but maximizes his offensive output with excellent plate discipline and feel for the barrel, producing a high quantity of hard hit baseballs to all fields that find grass and seats in bunches. He recognizes pitches well and doesn't swing and miss much, and while some of his college home runs may turn into doubles in pro ball, he should continue to spray the ball around the field with authority. The Pittsburgh-area native is also a better athlete than your average catcher and moves well behind the plate, though he does need some refinement with the finer aspects of catching. Overall, it's a profile that doesn't stand out in any particular area except perhaps his feel for hitting, but he has all the makings of a first division backup catcher or second division starter that can provide some impact in the box. Think perhaps 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is more than many catchers can claim nowadays.

14-432: RHP Aidan Maldonado, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125K.
The Brewers didn't draft any Wisconsinites this year, but they did get two Upper Midwesterners in Illinois-Chicago's Nate Peterson (from Lakeville, MN) and Minnesota's Aidan Maldonado. Maldonado grew up in Rosemount on the south side of the Twin Cities and less than a half hour drive from the Wisconsin border, then originally began his career at Illinois where he ran a 7.44 ERA over three seasons. Transferring back home to Minnesota this year, he was much more consistent and pitched to a 3.91 ERA and a 90/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 96, adding a sweepy slider and a bigger curveball. Maldonado has a violent delivery with a pronounced stabbing motion in the back, which previously held his command back to the point where he was unplayable on the mound for Illinois. He wrangled that command enough to get to 40, maybe 45 on his best days this spring, which suddenly helps his big stuff play up. The offspeed stuff can still be inconsistent and with a tendency to lose his arm slot and yank his pitches, he still doesn't locate well enough to crack it as a starter. But in shorter stints, he could be a nasty reliever that doesn't have to worry so much about game planning and holding things together for longer periods of time.

17-522: C Brady Neal, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #97.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Perhaps the biggest name of Milwaukee's day three splurge, Brady Neal would be a massive get if they can find the money. A second to fourth round prospect on most boards, he would have gone within the top one hundred picks if he had been more signable and it will likely require close to or over a million dollars to lure him away from an LSU commitment, which the Brewers don't have. Originally a member of the class of 2023, Neal reclassified to be a part of the 2022 class and has looked quite at home among the best players in the class. Despite not turning 18 until October, he takes very good at bats against high quality pitching, looking unfazed against premium velocity and breaking stuff. The barrel accuracy is a bit behind the plate discipline but it's catching up quickly, and his left handed swing has been looking better and better. Though he stands only 5'10", he has a chance at average or better power to go with a hit tool that will likely end up at least above average down the line. There are some questions about how much impact he'll ultimately provide at the plate, he's so advanced for his age that adding that impact can be a greater focus than most catchers. Like Matt Wood, he's very agile behind the plate and could even hold his own at an infield spot if need be, but he'll be a catcher going forward. While his game does need some overall refinement back there like you'd expect from a 17 year old, again, it's very advanced for his age.

18-552: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Champagnat Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #185.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely above $500K if he signs.
Ironically, the Brewers actually drafted a Dutch teenager out of Champagnat Catholic High School in the Miami area a year ago, and they'll do the same this year with Curacao native Jurrangelo "Loo" Cijntje (pronounced SAINT-juh). Aside from having quite possibly the coolest name in the draft, Cijntje is a living, breathing switch pitcher that will have a chance to continue doing his thing in the minors. He's sharper from the right side, where he can get up to 97 and comfortably deals in the low 90's, while his slider shows nice sweep. From the left side, he's more in the upper 80's and his slider lacks power, but it does show good depth. As you might imagine, he's an exceptional athlete that moves well on the mound and represents a great ball of clay for Milwaukee should he sign. Cijntje is very old for a high school senior having already turned 19 in May, but it's such a unique profile that the age isn't a huge deal. He's for sure a potential big league pitcher from the right side, and if he can add velocity and power to his stuff from the left side, he could do both in the majors. Regardless, he does need to tighten up his breaking balls and get more consistent with his command. Because he's already 19, he'll be eligible again in 2024 should he head to Mississippi State.

19-582: RHP Jaden Noot, Sierra Canyon HS [CA]. My rank: #118.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Jaden Noot, like Brady Neal and the already-signed Jacob Misiorowski, is committed to LSU and will require a massive bonus to sign. At this point, it looks unlikely after Misiorowski's massive bonus and the fact that he has been considered a tough sign throughout the process. Noot is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, and he's teeming with arm strength. The fastball comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's and he can touch as high as 97 while looking like he's just playing catch. His slider is his best offspeed, looking above average at its best, while his curveball shows big break but needs to add power and he lacks feel for his changeup coming out of his hand. Throwing without much effort, he's able to show solid command and could get to above average in that regard in the future, giving him at least a back-end starter's profile. The Los Angeles-area native is not a great athlete, with a short stride down the mound and an upright finish that's more reminiscent of old school innings eating starters than the explosive athletes like Misiorowski. Noot will have to watch his conditioning but the arm strength is undeniable. Should he end up in Baton Rouge, he could step into the weekend rotation relatively quickly and emerge as a much higher pick after three years of performance.

Thursday, January 14, 2021

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big Ten

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on November 17th.

In contrast to football and basketball, where the Big Ten routinely challenges for national championships, the Big Ten is the weakest of the Power Five conferences in baseball. Michigan’s surprise run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt in 2019 was a key achievement, but otherwise, the Big Ten is a tier below the SEC, ACC, and even Pac 12 and Big 12.

In terms of draft talent, we see a very clear theme here. Eight of the Big Ten Top Ten listed prospects are pitchers, and even they have a lot in common. These stringbean pitchers were listed, on average, at 6’4″ and 209 pounds, and only Seth Lonsway, Mason Erla, and Garrett Burhenn have any significant Big Ten experience. That means the ongoing theme will be projection, projection, projection.

As a map enthusiast, I also have to point out that this really represents the team of the North, with two players from Massachusetts, two from Indianapolis, and one each from Chicago, Portland, Baltimore, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Michigan. In a sport typically heavier on players from warmer climates, I find that noteworthy.

1. LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’5″, 215 lbs. Born 8/7/2000. Hometown: Andover, MA
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.

Leading the way, Michigan’s Steven Hajjar fits all of the themes on this list. He’s long and lanky at 6’5″, grew up in Massachusetts, and is all upside with just 20 collegiate innings under his belt. Hajjar actually missed the 2019 season with a torn ACL, but he put himself back on the map with a statement start to open 2020. In his first college inning, he struck out Arizona State’s Drew Swift and Spencer Torkelson back to back, the latter of course going on to be selected first overall four months later. When the day was through, Hajjar had tossed six shutout innings and struck out seven against the best lineup in college baseball, and he finished with a 2.70 ERA in four starts.

Hajjar is oozing with traits scouts love to see. The 6’5″ lefty has a ton of room to fill out his lanky frame, which could help a fastball that currently sits in the low 90’s play up into the mid 90’s down the line. What was once a slurvy slider has added finish in Ann Arbor, flashing plus at its best and missing plenty of bats. He’s also improved what was once a fringy changeup into a legitimate solid average to above average offering, giving him three strong pitches from the left side. The stuff is there now and could get even better, but like many arms in the Big Ten, we’re waiting for some track record.

The ACL injury and shutdown mean he’s thrown just 20 innings in his college career, and he walked eleven in that span (including at least two in every start). He doesn’t always get his long left arm coming down in the same slot, leading to command questions that he hasn’t quite assuaged yet in fall workouts. That’s fixable with more reps, especially given that he’s young for a college junior and won’t turn 21 until August, but for now it’s at the top of the to-do list. For now, scouts will just have to dream on the stuff and projectability. With improved command and perhaps a tick or two of velocity, Hajjar has arguably the highest ceiling in the Big Ten.

2. RHP Sean Burke, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw R. 6’6″, 230 lbs. Born 12/18/1999. Hometown: Sutton, MA

2020: 2-0, 1.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35/11 K/BB in 22.2 IP.

Two names, two towering pitchers from Massachusetts who missed 2019 with injuries. Sean Burke, who has an inch and fifteen pounds on Steven Hajjar, grew up an hour away from him in the Bay State, then spent 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while Hajjar dealt with his ACL. Returning in 2020, he shoved against a relatively weak non-conference schedule, putting up a 1.99 ERA and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio 22.2 innings. Heading into 2021, Hajjar has the leg up in handedness and a deeper arsenal, but Burke might have the louder “now” stuff.

Standing 6’6″ and 230 pounds, Burke was a cold weather projection arm coming out of high school and has made good on that projection. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, touching 95 with regularity. That fastball gets nice riding action up in the zone and misses bats consistently, playing above its velocity and pairing well with his curveball. That breaking ball is a tight spinner that can be equally tough to hit, and the two pitches give him a very high floor on their own. However, there is certainly still work to be done.

Hajjar has walked eleven batters in twenty innings, and it’s a similar line for Burke, with eleven walks in 22.2 innings against slightly weaker competition. He has a tendency to yank or sail his pitches, which hasn’t hurt him to this point but is something to watch. He has a clean delivery and seems to have finally grown into his large frame, so perhaps he just needs time to harness his loud stuff. Burke also needs to refine his changeup, which is clearly his third pitch at this point and not quite on par with Hajjar. As a two pitch pitcher with command questions, he faces considerable relief risk, but we’re looking at some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten.

3. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’5″, 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL
2019-2020: 1-2, 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/34 K/BB 44.1 IP.

Another name, another towering pitcher from up north. Between Steven Hajjar, Sean Burke, and JP Massey, the latter is the purest “projection” arm, with the most room to fill out his frame and the most work to do on his secondaries. Through two seasons in Minneapolis, the Chicago native has a 5.08 ERA and a 55/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings, not the loudest line but there is stuff to like when you look closely. In addition to striking out 26.1% of his opponents, he also has allowed just a .201 opponents’ batting average. With a considerable refinement, his ceiling is tremendous.

Massey’s best attribute is his fastball, which presently sits in the low to mid 90’s and can scrape 95-96. Given his long, lanky build, it’s easy to see him sitting more consistently in the mid 90’s down the road and touching higher. His two breaking balls can blend into each other, but his slider can really stand out when he tightens it up. We don’t have much of a changeup at this point, and the command is mediocre but improving.

Massey has a lot to work on, but just as much to like. If he can get a little more consistent with that slider and show more 55-60’s than 40-45’s, he has a chance to shoot up boards even without improvement in other areas. Meanwhile, maintaining steady progress with his command and getting it closer to average will help, while the changeup is obviously something to watch for. He’s a favorite among area scouts, and he only barely ranks behind Burke on my list. Watch Massey very closely for any signs of improvement in a multitude of areas.

4. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’3, 200 lbs. Born 10/7/1998. Hometown: Celina, OH

2019-2020: 9-6, 3.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 168/77 K/BB in 110.1 IP.

Seth Lonsway was a well-known draft name in rural western Ohio in 2017 but elected to attend Ohio State, then was mentioned as high as the second round for the 2020 draft. A high asking price left him undrafted, and now he becomes a priority draft name for a third cycle. You don’t see much contact in his game, as he struck out 30.3% of those he faced in 2019 and walked 14.2%, then got even more extreme in 2020 with 50.6% and 21.7% rates, respectively. For those more comfortable with raw numbers, that’s an incredible 42/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings in 2020.

Lonsway has the loudest “now” stuff in the Big Ten, and it’s not particularly close. His explosive fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 96, playing above its velocity because it runs hard and really jumps out of his hand. Then we have two breaking balls, led by an absolute hammer of a curveball that was one of the best in the 2020 draft. His lateral slider is improving as well and looks like at least an above average pitch, if not plus, and his changeup rounds out his arsenal nicely. All three secondary pitches generate whiff rates of 59% or above. To this point, Big Ten hitters have had absolutely no chance to make contact against him, instead relying on drawing walks or seeing fastballs over the middle of the plate.

That command is a serious problem. As his stuff has gotten louder, his location has gotten even more erratic, and he walked a combined 30 batters in 30 innings between the 2019 Cape Cod season and 2020 regular season. He struggles to wrangle that truly explosive stuff, despite a pretty clean overhand delivery. Sturdily built at 6’3″, he has every starter trait necessary except command, so whoever drafts the 22 year old will likely believe in his ability to start. If the command never gets better, the stuff could play exceptionally well out of the bullpen, especially from the left side, and he has plenty of margin for error.

5. OF Grant Richardson, Indiana

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 185 lbs. Born 7/13/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 14 HR, .306/.366/.572, 4 SB, 73/17 K/BB in 60 games.

After four arms to start the list, we get to our top hitter at #5. Grant Richardson was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year, but went undrafted despite slashing .424/.453/.797 with five home runs in 14 games. That was no weak schedule either, as he went 6-12 with a home run in a weekend series against Louisiana State and had a pair of matching 2-5 performances against East Carolina and Ole Miss, homering in both. In a Big Ten Conference weak on position players, Richardson enters 2021 as the Big Ten best all-around.

It’s easy to fall in love with the tools here. Richardson is a great athlete at 6’2″ with plenty of twitchy strength, giving him the ability to impact the game in a multitude of ways. Plus speed makes him a threat on the basepaths and in the outfield, and it helps him get down the line quickly from the left side. His bat has a chance to be special, especially if he can prove his crazy 2020 line was not a mirage. The Indianapolis-area native has a knack for hard contact, consistently squaring the ball up for above average power and plenty of balls in the gaps, where his speed becomes an asset. His strong arm is another above average tool, and if he can refine his reads and routes, he could be a plus defensive center fielder. If not, he should be above average in right field either way.

The big ding in Richardson’s profile is plate discipline, and that’s an important one. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that leads to considerable swing and miss, and he rarely walks. It hasn’t hampered him yet, but scouts will be watching closely in 2021 now that his potent bat is no longer a secret. When Big Ten pitchers like the four above him on this list adjust to him, will he be able to adjust back? Will he at least chase less, so scouts can be more confident he’ll work pro pitching? Set to turn 22 on Day Three of the draft, he’ll be a little older than many other players in the class, but not by much.

6. RHP McCade Brown, Indiana

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 200 lbs. Born 8/15/2000. Hometown: Normal, IL

2019-2020: 0-2, 14.86 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 11/13 K/BB in 6.2 IP.

After a brief hiatus, we’re back on the “towering pitchers without track record” theme, and McCade Brown takes it to the extreme. If you started off looking at the stats, you might be scratching your head to see Brown listed as the #6 prospect in the Big Ten. I mean, in two years with the program, Brown has pitched in just six games, tossed just 6.2 innings, and allowed eleven runs while walking thirteen. That’s a walk rate over 30%. But this kid is special, and we’re not here to scout the stat line.

Obviously, if he’s ranked this high with those kind of stats, it must be the stuff, right? Correct. At his best, Brown’s stuff is right up there with Seth Lonsway and Sean Burke for the best in the Big Ten. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s in short stints and can hit 96, with nice arm side run that makes it tough to square up. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, but it can be devastating when it’s on. His curveball can be an absolute hammer with late, deep tilt and eleven to five movement. In the video above, he rattles off some eye-popping ones. His slider can flash plus as well, with short, tight bite that comes on late. He rounds it out with a changeup that’s probably his fourth pitch.

All of that is great, of course, and but we’re not here to rank bullpen sessions. Brown has to put up some real numbers this year, and even before consistency comes into play, he has to improve on 30-grade command. The 6’6″ righty loses his arm slot often, tending to cast or yank his pitches and miss badly. Slight improvements to get to even 40-grade command could do wonders for his draft stock, but 30 won’t play on Day One. Then of course if he wants to be a pro starter, he needs to hold his stuff deep into games and show the ability to spin the ball on a consistent basis, not just on “on” days. Fortunately, our Illinoisan prodigy is young for the class and won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft, giving him that much more development time.

7. 1B Maxwell Costes, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 215 lbs. Born 7/1999. Hometown: Baltimore, MD

2019-2020: 19 HR, .295/.444/.581, 4 SB, 61/44 K/BB in 73 games.

Maxwell Costes might not appeal to traditional scouts as a right-right 1B/LF type, but man, can this kid put on a show at the plate. He was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2019 when he slashed .266/.397/.547 with 15 home runs in 58 games, but that turned out to be his low point as a hitter. He slashed .380/.514/.789 with 15 home runs that summer in the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League, then hit .432/.620/.750 with four home runs as a sophomore last year. Put those together, and you have 19 home runs and a .392/.543/.780 line over 57 games in a calendar year – the PGCBL isn’t the most elite summer league around, but you don’t luck into those kinds of numbers.

Costes is no toolshed, but he just hits. Built like a truck at 6’1″, he can absolutely smoke a baseball with brute strength and a loose swing from the right side. His raw power plays way up in games, with 34 home runs in college/summer ball so far, giving him some of the best in-game power is not just the Big Ten, but the college class as a whole. The Baltimore native is not just a one-tool player, as he’s been more than willing to take walks – and get hit – as pitchers stopped pitching to him. In the batters box, he’s been the complete package so far.

I’m going to throw a Brent Rooker comp on here. Rooker, like Costes, was a right-right corner bat that didn’t sign the first year he was eligible, and went back to school to prove his bat. Because of his lack of tools, Rooker had to absolutely explode at the plate to push himself into Day One draft consideration, and Costes may have to do the same without the benefit of SEC competition to show it’s “real.” He has the strong 2019 under his belt, but he didn’t face the strongest competition in the PGCBL or in 2020, and the Big Ten isn’t the strongest conference either. He’ll have to hit a lot to prove it, but I’m optimistic and I think he could be an impact hitter in pro ball.

8. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 200 lbs. Born 8/19/1997. Hometown: Cass City, MI

2017-2020: 10-15, 4.24 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 163/79 K/BB in 195.1 IP.

Mason Erla will be nearly 24 (!) on draft day, making him the oldest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. Erla, who is already relatively old for his class, was draft-eligible in 2019, but he was coming off a 5.49 ERA and 16% strikeout rate and went undrafted. 2020 was a completely different story, when he put up a 1.04 ERA and 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, including an absolute gem against Troy to end the season (7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, he went unselected in the shortened draft, and now the 23 year old is going to give it one more shot.

Erla’s exceptional 2020 was no fluke. Always more of a control/command guy more than a stuff guy, his fastball jumped into the low to mid 90’s, now topping out around 96. Like Seth Lonsway, the fastball plays well above its impressive velocity, coming from a low three quarters release that puts considerable ride on the pitch. By far, that fastball is now his best attribute. The secondary stuff is just that, secondary, with a solid-average tight curveball and a changeup, helped by above average command.

The 6’4″ right hander has a nice #4 starter profile with a plus fastball, two usable offspeed pitches, good command, and a sturdy frame. However, his age complicates things. If a drafting team wants to develop Erla as a starter, they may have to wait until he’s 26 or 27 to see him in the majors, and only as a back-end guy. Putting him in the bullpen, where he could pitch more effectively off that fastball, could help him move much more quickly and get there around age 25. Either way, I see him as a high floor, low ceiling type, and one who could be a big time money saver.

9. RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 215 lbs. Born 9/12/1999. Hometown: Indianapolis, IN

2019-2020: 8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 98/35 K/BB in 112.1 IP.

This is a complex one, but very interesting. Garrett Burhenn showed well in his freshman season in 2019, putting up a 3.96 ERA and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings, but a bad start vs Georgia Tech in 2020 caused his ERA to balloon to 8.02 despite a sharp 29/4 K/BB. Personally, I wasn’t a huge fan and originally left him off this list, but then after more data and digging, noting significant improvement during the shutdown. Let’s jump in.

During his career in Columbus, Burhenn has shown average stuff with a low 90’s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He’s always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when his pitches caught too much plate. Since the shutdown, McRae noted that he substituted a curveball for his changeup, and he’s worked to increase the spin rates on all of his pitches. The results have been promising, as he now shows tighter breaking pitches while making his solid-average velocity play up. I’m not here to call him the next Bryce Jarvis, but those are promising developments.

Burhenn’s control is ahead of his command, and previously that left him as a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of arm. Now, if he can generate more swings and misses in the zone, he has a chance to play up to a #3 or #4 starter. I’m very curious to see how he comes out of the gate in 2021, with the chance to move quickly up draft boards by proving his new stuff is for real. Down the road, he’ll likely want to pick that changeup back up, and tightening his command in the strike zone will help as well. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2021, that’s for sure.

10. RHP Willie Weiss, Michigan

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 3/3/2000. Hometown: Portland, OR

2019: 2-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 50/32 K/BB in 39.1 IP.

We’ll close out with a sleeper pick. Willie Weiss was a key cog in that famous 2019 Michigan pitching staff, earning key innings in relief of current pros Tommy Henry (ARI), Karl Kauffmann (COL), and Jeff Criswell (OAK). In 27 appearances, he had a 2.97 ERA and a 50/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings as a true freshman, closing it out with a scoreless appearance against Vanderbilt in the CWS championship. However, a minor triceps injury sidelined him for the start of the 2020 season, and the pandemic meant he never got to work back in. Heading into 2021, Weiss has a lot to prove, but could work his way up draft boards in a hurry.

Weiss sat in the upper 80’s and scraped the low 90’s in high school, but there were reports of him hitting as high as 94-95 as a freshman at Michigan. He also flashes a sharp slider that can miss bats as well, and the two pitches helped him strike out 27.8% of his opponents. At this point, he needs to work on his changeup, which is his third pitch.

The fact that we haven’t seen Weiss since his freshman year means there could be significant untapped potential here. With two good pitches, a sturdy 6’3″ build, and plenty of big game experience, there are starter traits here. However, his closed off delivery can make it difficult to get back on line towards the plate, causing his arm slot to wander and miss spots. Even more important than developing the changeup at this point will be getting more consistent with that delivery, as it’s hard to feel comfortable projecting someone as a starter with 40 command. Michigan has a great track record of producing arms, and a cleaned up Weiss could make some noise in 2021.

Other Interesting Options


East Arms

I know baseball doesn’t use the divisional format, but we’ll go with football divisions to break up this section. At Maryland, where Sean Burke has plenty of draft buzz and Maxwell Costes has some eye-popping track record to his name, Sam Bello is a bit more of a sleeper. The 6’3″, 225 pound New Yorker is draft-eligible as a sophomore, coming off a short but successful freshman season where he struck out eleven and walked two over 6.2 strong innings. Built like a tank, he attacks hitters with a low 90’s fastball and a nice slider, commanding both pretty well. He has a lot to prove in 2021, but with plenty of on-paper starter traits, he might not be a sleeper anymore once he gets some Big Ten innings under his belt.

Behind Steven Hajjar and Willie Weiss, Michigan has another interesting option in Cameron Weston. The 6’1″, 200 pound sophomore from the Pittsburgh area is draft-eligible this year with an August 27th birthday, the very last day before the cutoff. He’s a fastball/splitter pitcher that sits in the low 90’s, with a clean delivery and starter’s built. On the docket for 2021, aside from building up some track record, will be sharpening his breaking ball into a usable offering.

Down south, Big Ten rival Ohio State has another interesting arm behind Seth Lonsway and Garrett Burhenn. Meanwhile, Jack Neely is a very different pitcher. The San Antonio native began his career at Texas, but put up a 14.90 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Iowa Western CC. There, he was about as dominant as you can be, striking out 17 and walking four over eleven shutout innings, allowing just one hit along the way. The towering 6’9″, 230 pound righty now comes to Ohio State with a low 90’s fastball that plays up due to tremendous extension, but the rest of his game needs a lot of work. Neely’s secondary stuff is fringy at best, and while his command took a step forward in 2020, it’s still well below average. Further improvement in either his breaking balls or command could bode very well for him in 2021.

East Bats

Our headliner in this group is Michigan catcher Jimmy Obertop. A top recruit from the St. Louis-area high school ranks, he’s draft-eligible as a sophomore after hitting .265/.375/.353 in eleven games. If you’re a college baseball fan, you might also recognize him from his viral ejection against Vanderbilt in his very first game. To this point, the ample strength he packs into his 6’1″, 220 pound frame is his best attribute. It gives him above average raw power to work with and a strong arm behind the plate, while a disciplined approach at the plate should help him make the most of it. However, he’s not the most athletic catcher in the draft, needing considerable refinement in his movement behind the plate. His power is also more a product of strength than bat speed, so he’ll need to prove himself against velocity.

A short trip across the middle of the state brings us to Michigan State‘s Zaid Walker. The Chicago-area native has had a nice start to his Spartan career, slashing .281/.305/.375 with a pair of home runs in 62 games, and he’s hoping for a breakout in 2021. Walker does a lot of things well, with a line drive bat, some power to tap into, speed, and a good arm. At this point, he lacks a true carrying tool, so putting it all together for a strong season in East Lansing in 2021 will be his ticket to louder draft buzz. Toning down his hyper-aggressive approach could aid that endeavor.

West Arms

Outside of the top ten, arguably the loudest stuff in the Big Ten draft class belongs to Illinois right hander Aidan Maldonado. The Twin Cities native has put up ugly numbers in Urbana-Champaign (6.28 ERA, 34/40 K/BB), but also looked great in the Cape Cod League (3.20 ERA, 32/7 K/BB), so he’s a bit of an enigma. At his best, he can touch 96 with his fastball and hold it in the mid 90’s for innings at a time, adding in a sharp, bat-missing slider. However, at other times, the stuff can flatten out and he can get hit hard. The inconsistency in his stuff is compounded by command that fluctuates between 30 and 45, and he’s a bit undersized a 6′, 170 lbs. Smoothing out the pronounced stabbing motion in the back of his delivery could help, but unless he gets much more consistent with everything, he’s likely a reliever.

JP Massey will get most of the attention at Minnesota, but two-way prospect Sam Ireland is a sleeper behind him. The Denver-area native was better as a hitter (.303/.361/.424) than as a pitcher (9.00 ERA, 10/8 K/BB) in his short freshman season, but a full 2021 will be more enlightening. On the mound, his fastball sits around 90 and can bump 92, complemented by an average slider and changeup. There is some power in his 6’4″ frame, though as a right/right corner bat, he’ll need to prove he can tap into it.

Out on the plains, Nebraska offers up a very interesting arm in Colby Gomes. The Cornhuskers’ closer in 2019, he was a starter in 2020 and didn’t fare as well. The Omaha native can sit in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball and adds a nice sharp slider, but to this point he hasn’t had much success in games (5.26 ERA, 24/15 K/BB). His delivery isn’t really conducive to starting, with very long arm action, a low three quarters arm slot, and a pronounced head whack, so I don’t expect him to put up big numbers in the rotation this year. He could be a real sleeper for a team looking to convert him back to relief.

West Bats

Handling Aidan Maldonado and that Illinois pitching staff will be Jacob Campbell, a Wisconsin native who has hit just .197/.303/.280 over two years with the Illini. He’s obviously a glove-first prospect that stands out for his blocking and receiving, so teams will be interested regardless of how he hits. That said, if he wants to be anything more than org depth, he has to take a step forward with the bat. He shows a nice, loose swing with some pop, but even though he doesn’t have a crazy amount of swing and miss, he just doesn’t find the barrel often enough to tap it. Incremental steps towards squaring the ball up more often could make him a solid backup.

The Illini will also have shortstop Branden Comia, fresh off a red hot .426/.526/.702 start to his 2020 season. A bit undersized at 5’10”, Comia has great feel for the barrel and has shown surprising gap and over the fence power at Illinois, but that hasn’t been the case in two summers in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270). He has a short swing that’s more geared towards line drives and ground balls, and his lack of production with wood bats makes it hard to project more than 40 or 45 power on him for the future. He’ll also want to cut down on his swing and miss a bit, but with a solid glove that will keep him in the middle infield, the bat will have some slack.

Out in Lincoln, Nebraska shortstop Spencer Schwellenbach has been one of the Big Ten more consistent hitters as of late. The Michigan native has a career .281/.407/.394 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 52/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, giving off a “high floor, low ceiling” vibe. He’s a patient hitter with some ambush power, though his swing can get a little loopy and the barrel isn’t always in the zone for long. That has led to a fringe-average hit tool where you’d like to see a bit better given his profile. A shortstop for now, he can make it work at the premium position but fits better at second base.