The Cardinals' system has lived and died by the draft, and while a breakout campaign from Dylan Carlson and encouraging returns from Nolan Gorman and Andrew Knizner are huge, there's no question the system is feeling the effects of some blown picks. First rounders Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) are looking like busts, and 2018 competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts had a discouraging first full season. That said, some shrewd moves have also paid huge dividends, as Angel Rondon, Tommy Parsons, Alex Fagalde, Andrew Warner, and Justin Toerner all figure into the team's future despite signing for virtually no money, and still low-profile acquisitions of guys like Jhon Torres, Ivan Herrera, Andre Pallante, and Jack Ralston look great in hindsight. It's a thinner system than it has been recently, but the big two power bats of Carlson and Gorman, as well as a slew of upper minors back end starter types, look to make their impact in St. Louis soon.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis Redbirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, short season State College Spikes, rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
Catcher
- Andrew Knizner (2020 Age: 25): Yadier Molina made it very tough on Carson Kelly, now with the Diamondbacks, and he's doing the same thing to Andrew Knizner (first N is silent). The seventh round pick out of North Carolina State in 2016 reached the majors in 2019, slashing .276/.357/.463 with 12 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games at AAA Memphis while also hitting .226/.293/.377 with a pair of home runs in 18 major league games. Though he packs a lot of strength in his 6'1" frame, Knizner is plenty happy just spraying line drives around the field and that makes him extremely tough to strike out, which in turn will help his bat play up at the major league level. He's also a solid defender who should improve while learning behind Molina in St. Louis, and he could eventually develop enough power to hit 15 home runs per season. Knizner is the rare catching prospect that actually projects as a true starter at the major league level, and once he figures out a way to get around Molina, either by playing a different position for a few years, by going to another team, or just eating away at his playing time, he should be moderately productive on both sides of the ball.
- Julio Rodriguez (2020 Age: 22-23): Rodriguez lacks the impact at the plate of a guy like Knizner, but his superior defense alone gives him a shot at being a big league backup. In 2019, he slashed .268/.311/.393 with eight home runs and a 68/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, both pitcher-friendly environments, so he doesn't completely lack sock in his bat. Rodriguez employs a contact-oriented approach that limits his walks but also his strikeouts, which should help him handle big league pitching as a hitter, though he probably won't hit more than 5-10 home runs per season. The Cardinals have a lot of depth behind the plate, so I see it as pretty likely that one of their young catchers gets traded, but Rodriguez's superior glove gives him the chance to be a long-term backup in St. Louis.
- Ivan Herrera (2020 Age: 19-20): Right behind Rodriguez is Ivan Herrera, a teenager who slashed .284/.374/.405 with nine home runs and a 72/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games at Class A Peoria and High A Palm Beach. Herrera employs a very advanced approach at the plate for his age, earning a promotion up to High A shortly after his 19th birthday and continuing to get on base well in his small sample size. With his quick, simple swing, he could add some power without sacrificing too much in the way of contact and has a chance to challenge Knizner for a starting spot down the road. He's a work in progress defensively, but he also doesn't turn 20 until June, so he's ahead of schedule regardless. I'd call him the better prospect to Rodriguez, even with the discrepancy in current defense, as he's rapidly improving at a young age.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Godoy, Pedro Pages, Aaron Antonini
Corner Infield
- Nolan Gorman (2020 Age: 19-20): Gorman was a first round pick out of a Phoenix high school in 2018, then his sensational run through the Appalachian League (11 HR, .350/.443/.664) put him firmly on the prospect map. He came back down to Earth a bit in 2019, slashing .248/.326/.439 with 15 home runs and a 152/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Peoria and High A Palm Beach, though he was facing older competition. Gorman has a ton of power from the left side of the plate, true 30-40 homer pop that has never been questioned by evaluators, but the nicest thing to see so far has been a hit tool that was more advanced than expected. Gorman at times struggled with his approach at the plate on the prep circuit, and the thought was that his long swing might inhibit his ability to get to his power right away in pro ball. He indeed has struck out in 29% of his plate appearances so far in the minors, though his assignments have been aggressive and he has gotten to his power for 32 home runs in 188 career games, so I'm not too worried about the swing and miss. I think he'll settle in as a guy who hits 30-35 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages. He's been improving at third base, and while he'll never be a plus defender there, he might be able to stick rather than moving over to first base. The bat will profile at either position.
- Luken Baker (2020 Age: 23): Baker, a slugging first baseman who was drafted in the second round out of TCU in 2018, saw his stock drop a notch in 2019. This year, he slashed .244/.327/.390 with ten home runs and a 112/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Palm Beach, which was a bit light for a guy whose power will have to carry him up to the majors. Baker is a huge guy, listed at 6'4" and 265 pounds, though his power manifested more in hitting a lot of doubles (32) than home runs (10) in 2019. It's harder to get balls out of Florida State League parks, so if you give Baker the benefit of the doubt, he might get his power stroke back a bit in the Texas League in 2020. His strong plate discipline should help his bat play up, though at this point he might look more like a platoon bat than as a true starting first baseman.
- Elehuris Montero (2020 Age: 21): It's been a wild ride for Montero, who broke out by slashing .315/.371/.504 in A ball in 2018, but he followed it up with a nightmare 2019 in which he slashed .188/.235/.317 with seven home runs and a 74/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games at AA Springfield, also missing time with a broken hand. The strike zone completely got away from him, and he struggled to make contact against advanced AA pitching. He still got to his power somewhat, but it's clear that he'll need to repeat the level in order to get on base in addition to hitting for power. He's not a great defender and may have to move to first base, which would hurt his chances of starting, and the tough year might mean a future as a platoon/bench bat. If he bounces back, though, his feel for the barrel and power could help him hit 15-20 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Evan Mendoza, Yariel Gonzalez, Juan Yepez, Malcom Nunez
Middle Infield
- Edmundo Sosa (2020 Age: 24): Sosa spent most of 2019 at AAA Memphis, slashing .291/.335/.466 with 17 home runs and a 96/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games, and he's also slashed .200/.385/.200 over eleven major league games. Those 17 home runs are more than likely a product of the homer-happy Pacific Coast League, as he fits better into the 5-10 home run range with the potential to pop for up to 15 in a season, but he makes easy contact and can find the barrel consistently against high level pitching, giving him a chance to stick in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and overall it will probably keep his offensive profile low enough that he'll have trouble starting, but he's a slick defender that should be able to handle both middle infield spots well and make for a valuable utility man in the very near future.
- Ramon Urias (2020 Age: 25-26): Urias was signed out of the Mexican League in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .262/.362/.419 with ten home runs and an 81/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games, mostly at AAA Memphis. At only 5'10" and 150 pounds, he probably saw the same effect as Sosa when it came to his home run output, and he probably fits best at 5-10 per season in the majors. Urias stands out for his plate discipline, as he makes easy contact and should have no problem hitting in the majors, but he's unlikely to hit for a ton of impact and he has some competition if he wants to crack it as a utility infielder in 2020. To me, he's likely behind Sosa on the depth chart and he also has Max Schrock and Kramer Robertson to think about.
- Kramer Robertson (2020 Age: 25): Robertson, a fourth round pick as an LSU senior in 2017, has moved relatively quickly through the minors and in 2019 he slashed .231/.360/.365 with eleven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 85/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis. He's not a big guy at 5'10", but he has wiry strength that helps him produce moderate power and his excellent plate discipline helps him get to it relatively consistently. He's an extremely scrappy player who plays good defense and should be able to play his way up to the majors, though the Cardinals' utility infield scene is crowded at this point and Sosa probably has the leg up.
- Keep an eye on: Max Schrock, Kramer Robertson, Delvin Perez, Mateo Gil
Outfield
- Dylan Carlson (2020 Age: 21): The Cardinals drafted Carlson at the end of the first round out of a Sacramento-area high school in 2016, and they subsequently spent 2016 (.251/.313/.404), 2017 (.240/.342/.347), and 2018 (.246/.348/.390) waiting for him to break out. He finally did in 2019, slashing .292/.372/.542 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 116/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, enough to push himself into the conversation with Nolan Gorman for the best prospect in the system. He's always had two things going for him at the plate, and those have been strong plate discipline and natural raw power, but he finally began to tap that power consistently in 2019 with a new approach that saw him try to drive the ball in the air more often. We've seen this a lot, as more and more minor and major leaguers are finding success by trying to lift the ball and get it off the ground. Now with his power, patience, and good defense in right field, we could see Carlson crack the Cardinals roster in 2020 and even try to pry a starting spot away from whoever takes over for Marcell Ozuna. In the end, Carlson projects for maybe 25 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and a few stolen bases.
- Randy Arozarena (2020 Age: 25): Arozarena was a highly touted Cuban import who signed for $1.25 million in in 2016, then broke out in upper minors in 2019. This year, he slashed .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 71/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, then hit .300/.391/.500 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a 19 game debut with the Cardinals. At 5'11", he doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he knows how to get to it and has hit double digit home runs all three years in the minors. That's more due to his feel for the barrel, which has enabled him to limit his strikeouts and consistently make hard contact, leading to high batting averages, albeit without a ton of walks. The Cardinals' outfield plan is up in the air for 2020 with the departure of Marcell Ozuna, and while you know top prospect Dylan Carlson is gunning for that spot, Arozarena has more experience at AAA and in the majors and is already on the 40 man roster. In all, I think both can start, with Arozarena projecting for maybe 15 home runs per season, a few stolen bases, and solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Justin Williams (2020 Age: 24): Williams was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round out of a south-central Louisiana high school way back in 2013, and he's since been traded twice in what's been a long road up. He originally went to the Rays in the Jeremy Hellickson trade after the 2014 season, then moved on to the Cardinals as part of the return for Tommy Pham in 2018. After grounding out in his only MLB at bat in 2018, Williams had a really up and down 2019, missing a lot of time with various injuries, slashing just .193/.246/.263 with one home run and a 17/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games at AA Spingfield, then slashing .353/.437/.608 with seven home runs and a 30/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at AAA Memphis. He's got wiry strength that helps him produce average power, enough to hit 15-20 home runs annually in the majors if he can get to it, and he keeps his strikeouts reasonably low as well. If he hadn't missed so much time throughout his career to nagging injuries, he might already be a productive regular in the majors, but it's hard to gauge his ceiling when he's cracked 100 games just twice in seven pro seasons. He probably settles in as a bat-first fourth outfielder, one who can get on base and hit for some power, but if he stays healthy he has a shot at starting.
- Justin Toerner (2020 Age: 23-24): Toerner, a 28th round pick out of Cal State Northridge in 2018, is already looking like a steal. He hit .312/.410/.385 across three levels in his pro debut and reached High A, then kept on hitting in 2019 by slashing .253/.374/.379 with eleven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 105/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield. None of Toerner's tools stand out, which is part of why he dropped so far in the 2018 draft, but he does a little bit of everything and is sneaking up behind Carlson, Arozarena, and Williams as a potential fourth outfielder because of it. He started getting to his below average raw power more in 2019, and his patient approach at the plate enabled him to post a .403 on-base percentage in High A then a solid .338 mark in AA even as his bat slumped. I doubt Toerner is ever a full time starter for the Cardinals, but he's definitely a sleeper to watch.
- Jhon Torres (2020 Age: 20): Man, this kid is explosive and flat out fun to watch hit. He was acquired from the Indians in the Oscar Mercado trade in 2018, around which he tore up complex ball to the tune of a .321/.409/.525 line. Pushed all the way to Class A Peoria for 2019, he looked a bit overmatched and slashed just .167/.240/.212 with a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games, so the Cardinals dropped him back down to rookie level Johnson City, where he hit .286/.391/.527 with six home runs and a 36/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games. Torres already has great raw power at 19 years old, and at 6'4", he could grow into even more down the line. He generates this power both from his strength and from a big leg kick, which leads to his share of swing and miss, but he also has enough feel for hitting and finding the barrel that he can limit the strikeouts and get to that power. He'll take another crack at Class A in 2020, and he has one of the higher ceilings in the system as a kid who could eventually hit 30+ home runs annually with a good arm in right field.
- Trejyn Fletcher (2020 Age: 19): Fletcher is a bit of a mystery for multiple reasons. He played high school ball in Portland, Maine, which is well off the beaten prospect path (the only Mainers I can think of in the major leagues are Ryan Flaherty and Charlie Furbush, not sure what it is with Maine baseball players and F last names), Maine's awful spring weather makes it really hard to see those prospects, and he reclassified in March from the 2020 draft to the more age-appropriate 2019 draft. He's an exceptional athlete who at this point is all projection and no track record, though his .244/.291/.375 slash line with four home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 76/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at rookie level Johnson City were better than expected. Fletcher has plenty of power and speed, giving him the chance to be a real asset on both sides of the ball, but his hit tool is entirely unproven and he needs a lot of mechanical changes in his short swing. His 43.4% strikeout rate in his pro debut is evidence of that, so it will be a few years before we really know what we're getting. The upside is fun to dream on, though, and it's definitely a plus that he managed to hit his way up to the Appalachian League at 18 years old.
- Keep an eye on: Conner Capel, Leandro Cedeno, Jonatan Machado, Diowill Burgos
Starting Pitching
- Genesis Cabrera (2020 Age: 23): Cabrera often looks like more of a reliever than a starter, but it's not known what direction the Cardinals will go with their fifth starter and that works in Cabrera's favor. In 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 106/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 innings at hitter-friendly AAA Memphis, then put up a 4.87 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP, and a 19/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings in the majors. The 6'2" lefty has an explosive fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's while touching higher, and he adds a whole slew of secondary pitches that have been inconsistent throughout his career. He's also been even more inconsistent with his command, so even at 23 years old, he could really turn out to be anything. If his profile remains as is, he might be able to stick as a #5 starter, though he's just a few adjustments away from becoming a #3/#4. Also highly possible is a career in the bullpen, where he can focus on a couple secondary pitches and not have to worry so much about his command, and his high-effort delivery might fit better there anyways.
- Jake Woodford (2020 Age: 23): Cabrera's primary competition for that fifth spot, if the Cardinals don't outsource it, will be Jake Woodford, a competitive balance pick out of a Tampa high school in 2015. Woodford spent 2019 in the homer-happy Pacific Coast League, posting a respectable 4.15 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, a 131/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.2 innings at AAA Memphis, numbers that look much better considering the context. His stuff is fairly light, with a low 90's fastball, a pair of decent breaking balls, and a changeup, and his command is decent but nothing to write home about. Woodford's highish walk rates are probably more a product of him trying to avoid the middle of the zone, as he's given up 40 home runs over the past two seasons due to that light stuff, but his feel for pitching is just good enough that he was able to limit the damage up in AAA and his durability makes him one of the more consistent arms in the system. His ceiling is probably that of a #5 starter but he could be that exactly in 2020.
- Tommy Parsons (2020 Age: 24): You can say Parsons improved his stock in 2019. Signed as an un-drafted free agent out of Division III Adrian College in Michigan in 2018, he had a nice run through the Appalachian League before getting sent to Class A Peoria at 23 years old to start 2019. What ensued was a meteoric rise through four minor league levels, as he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 148/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 165.2 innings at Peoria, High A Palm Beach, AA Springfield, and AAA Memphis. Those 165.2 innings led all minor leaguers, and that track record of durability extends back to his college days. Nothing jumps off the page with Parsons, who sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three unspectacular secondary pitches, but his masterful control and exceptional feel for pitching help everything play up. The durability also does more than just keep him on the mound, as he's just as effective in the seventh and eighth inning as he is in the first, and I'd be curious to see his stats split by times through the order. His ceiling is that of a #4/#5 starter but he's just a really interesting pitcher.
- Angel Rondon (2020 Age: 22): Rondon has been the epitome of a sleeper prospect. I couldn't find the terms of his signing bonus online, but I'm sure it wasn't much since he signed as an 18 year old in January 2016 (most top prospects sign at 16 years old in July and August), and he's just quietly performed in the low minors without drawing much attention. That changed in 2019, when he had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 159/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 160 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield. He joined his teammate, Parsons, in being one of only seven minor league pitchers to reach 160 innings this year, using his solid three pitch mix and feel for pitching to carve through lineups. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's around average and he really understands how to deploy his stuff. As a pitcher who tends to give up a lot of fly balls, it will be interesting to see how he fares with the juiced balls up in AAA and the majors, but 2019 was certainly an encouraging step forward and he now looks like a future #4 starter.
- Johan Oviedo (2020 Age: 22): Oviedo started the spring at High A Palm Beach, but after posting a 1.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, he earned a quick promotion to AA Springfield. He wasn't quite as effective at the higher level, posting a 5.65 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 128/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, but he was also only 21 years old in AA. Oviedo can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a slider and a changeup, the latter of which is very advanced for his age. At 6'6", he could grow into more velocity, but for now the focus needs to be on improving his command, which is below average at this point. He has the chance to become a #3 or #4 starter if he does, and that may require him to tone down his high effort delivery a bit. If not, he fits well as a reliever.
- Zack Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was the Cardinals' first round pick out of Kentucky in 2019, but if he stays healthy, he has the chance to move quickly. In his pro debut, he had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League and High A Palm Beach, where he threw in relief after a long college season. He has the chance to be great value at the #19 overall pick, as nothing stands out in his game but everything is steadily improving and he has a track record of success in the SEC. He comes in with a low 90's fastball and a full set of secondary pitches, all of which are potential weapons that have remained pretty consistent, and his command steadily improved throughout his time at Kentucky and looked solid in his pro debut. I don't see him as a true ace, but the lefty has a very good shot at becoming a #3 starter if he can stay healthy.
- Andre Pallante (2020 Age: 21): Three rounds after Thompson, the Cardinals took UC Irvine righty Andre Pallante in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He, like Thompson, has the chance to be great value at this spot, and he already had a successful pro debut with a 2.78 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.2 innings at short season State College. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three secondary pitches, and while none stand out as plus, he has good feel for pitching and commands everything fairly well. He's on the smaller side at six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which gives him some reliever risk, but his deep arsenal and command could help him stick in the rotation if he tones down that delivery just a little bit. I like Pallante as a sleeper prospect and I think he could be a #3 or #4 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Warner, Alex Fagalde, Steven Gingery
Relief Pitching
- Junior Fernandez (2020 Age: 23): Fernandez transitioned from starting to relieving in 2018, and after getting mixed results in his first year in the bullpen, he took off in 2019. This year, he had a 1.52 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings at High A Palm Beach, AA Springfield, and AAA Memphis, and he then posted a 5.40 ERA and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.2 major league innings. Now that he's in the bullpen, his fastball has ticked up to the upper 90's, and he can lean more heavily on his fading changeup while taking emphasis off his decent slider. His mediocre command doesn't hurt him nearly as much in the bullpen as it did in the rotation, and his stuff clearly played up in short spurts. He has closer upside if he can tighten his command a little bit, but a nice career as a set-up man is both more likely and highly valuable anyways.
- Griffin Roberts (2020 Age: 23-24): Roberts was a competitive balance pick in the 2018 draft out of Wake Forest, but his first full season in 2019 went about as poorly as possible. He missed the start of the season after being suspended for a "drug of abuse" (likely marijuana), then came back and posted a 6.44 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 36/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings at High A Palm Beach. His command, which was never all that great to begin with, fell apart and that caused him to pitch from behind in the count often, meaning he had to lean more heavily on his low to mid 90's fastball than on his devastating slider. In the end, he didn't miss bats and he got hit hard. His future is almost certainly in the bullpen now, where he could bump that fastball up into the mid 90's and lean on his slider, which is one of the better breaking balls in all of minor league baseball. In that role, he could move quickly and his command will be less of an issue.
- Tony Locey (2020 Age: 21-22): Locey was the Cardinals' third round pick out of Georgia in 2019, and he posted a 5.29 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at Class A Peoria in his pro debut. He improved steadily throughout his time in Athens, though he remains inconsistent around most of his game. Locey sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which is his best weapon, and he adds a good slider as well as a curveball and changeup. That deep arsenal could help him start if the Cardinals want to go that route, but the curve and changeup are unreliable and he's probably best off in relief. His command also needs a little bit of work, but tightening it up a little bit could help him be a useful, potentially multi-inning reliever at the major league level.
- Jack Ralston (2020 Age: 22-23): Here's a sleeper for you guys. Ralston didn't pitch in either of his first two seasons at UCLA and only sparingly as a redshirt sophomore, but he broke out as a redshirt junior and the Cardinals took him in the seventh round. Converted to relief at least for his pro debut, he had a 1.07 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at short season State College. He's a 6'6" righty who can bump his fastball into the mid 90's now that he's pitching in relief, and his plus curveball is a bat-missing weapon that could be his ticket up to the major leagues. His command is improving, and if he can hold it around average like it was in his pro debut, he could move quickly up to the majors and be an impact reliever in the relatively near future.
- Keep an eye on: Seth Elledge, Connor Thomas, Walker Robbins
Showing posts with label Justin Williams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Williams. Show all posts
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Friday, December 28, 2018
Reviewing the St. Louis Cardinals Farm System
The Cardinals develop talent very well and have maintained a strong farm system even through a long run of contention, though that system may be down just a hair right now. The graduations of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty and trades of Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Oscar Mercado, among others, have left the system thinner than usual as they haven't really had as much impact talent as usual coming through to back it up. The fact that back to back first round picks (both 23rd overall) Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) haven't panned out as hoped so far hurts, and most of the talent is concentrated in AA and AAA. Of course, I say "as much impact talent" because the Cardinals still have plenty of prospects breaking through, and the system is still quite average even during a down period. They have their typical, if a bit thin, army of useful starting pitchers as well as plenty of competent hitters that should be at least useful role players, though they're a bit short on impact hitters after Nolan Gorman.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
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