This is a very pitching-heavy system, led by the four consecutive right handed pitchers they took in the first round from 2015-2018 in Beau Burrows, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Casey Mize, respectively. However, that 2018 draft has interestingly produced a lot of pitching talent in the later rounds, including ninth rounder Tarik Skubal, 18th rounder Ethan DeCaster, and 26th rounder Garrett Hill. Noting the utter lack of impact hitters in this system aside from maybe Isaac Paredes, the Tigers turned their focus there in the 2019 draft and stocked up with six consecutive hitters, most notably first rounder Riley Greene, and they also added Roberto Campos through the international market. It's a system that's really deep in pitching, but they'll really want to get some of those recent offensive draftees going as well as incumbents like Daz Cameron, Kody Clemens, Parker Meadows, and Wenceel Perez.
Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie SeaWolves, High A Lakeland, Class A West Michigan, short season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers
Catcher
- Jake Rogers (2020 Age: 25): Rogers was the Astros' third round pick out of Tulane in 2016, then he came to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade in 2017. He bounced back from a tough 2018 to slash .250/.361/.484 with 14 home runs and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games at AA Erie and AAA Toledo, then hit .125/.222/.259 with four home runs and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio in a 35 game big league call-up. He only has to hit a little bit, because he might be the best defensive catching prospect in the game. He'll likely contend for Gold Gloves immediately after taking on a full time role, which in turn will help the Tigers' big group of young arms coming up. He does have some power, which has enabled him to hit 18, 17, and 18 home runs over the past three seasons, though his hit tool is pretty fringy and the swing and miss in his game was exposed during his stint in the majors in 2019. Even if his bat just stopped developing today, he'd be a very useful backup catcher with his defense, but if he can figure out how to tap that power in the majors, he could easily overtake Austin Romine as the team's starter back there.
- Yoandy Rea (2020 Age: 19-20): I researched and researched to try to find some information on Yoandy Rea, but unfortunately, there is nothing online, but I really want to include him here so I'll have to "scout the stat line." Signed out of Venezuela in 2017, he didn't get enough money to show up on any trackers, but he hit well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.320/.405/.455) then absolutely raked in 2019. He spent most of the year in the complex level Gulf Coast League, slashing .400/.453/.653 with five home runs and a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games, then earned a late promotion to short season Connecticut and hit .238/.273/.238 with a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio in six games. He's a very advanced hitter at the plate for his age who is quickly developing some wiry power, and catchers who can hit for impact are hard to find. I know nothing about his defense, but even if it's raw, he's young enough to hone his craft and hopefully stick back there.
- Keep an eye on: Kade Scivicque, Cooper Johnson, Sam McMillan, Eliezer Alfonzo
Corner Infield
- Isaac Paredes (2020 Age: 21): The Cubs originally signed Paredes out of Mexico in 2015, then they shipped him across town in the Alex Avila/Justin Wilson trade. He's an extremely competent hitter who slashed .282/.368/.416 with 13 home runs and a 61/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Erie in 2019, standing out for his exceptional ability to control the zone while still hitting for impact. He has a very simple swing that enables him to find the barrel very consistently, and he has some over the fence power in his compact 5'11" frame, though he'll never be a true power hitter. I'm very confident that he'll be able to hit at the major league level, perhaps with 10-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages if things break right, and that should be enough to land him a starting job. It's not clear where yet, as he's played mostly shortstop to this point in his career but he's fringy there, and he could also fit at second or third base. He's played more third base than second to this point, and his good arm fits well there, so I'll include him as a corner infielder for now.
- Andre Lipcius (2020 Age: 21-22): Lipcius was a third round pick out of Tennessee in 2019, and he held his own in a relatively aggressive assignment to Class A West Michigan to begin his career by slashing .273/.344/.360 with two home runs and a 57/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. The Tigers did pick him for his bat, as he's an advanced hitter who has hit well both in the Cape Cod League and in the SEC, making easy contact with a swing that produces good power. How much power he'll actually be able to generate is still a question, but it could be above average if he takes to pro ball like has to all his other assignments throughout his amateur career. Defensively, he's a bit fringy and may need to move to first base, which would put added pressure on the bat.
- Nick Quintana (2020 Age: 22): Quintana, the Tigers' second pick out of Arizona in 2019, a round before Lipcius, slashed just .194/.273/.280 with a pair of home runs and an 82/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games at short season Connecticut and Class A West Michigan in his pro debut. A very accomplished hitter back in Tucson, he came into pro ball needing to prove his hit tool and unfortunately his 31.5% strikeout rate didn't ease any of those questions. Though he's only 5'10", he has a lot of power from the right side and could be an impact hitter if everything breaks right. He'll probably need to shorten up his swing a bit in order to get to it in pro ball though, given the aforementioned contact problems. Unlike Lipcius, his glove will work in his favor, as he's very strong at third base and might even be able to handle shortstop if the Tigers wanted to get ambitious.
- Keep an eye on: Frank Schwindel, Nick Ames, Ryan Kreidler
Middle Infield
- Willi Castro (2020 Age: 23): Castro came over from the Indians for Leonys Martin in 2018, and he's impressed the Tigers so far by slashing .301/.366/.467 with eleven home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 110/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AAA Toledo in 2019. He then hit .230/.284/.340 with a home run and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 major league games, like Jake Rogers staying just under rookie limits. He's a consistent hitter who finds the barrel pretty easily, enabling him to post high batting averages and relatively low strikeout numbers wherever he goes, and he has enough gap power and a little bit of over the fence power to be much more than just a slap hitter. The switch hitter also shows some speed and a good arm in the infield, and while he's a bit fringy at shortstop, he might still be able to stick there. With Niko Goodrum really the only person standing in his way, he could conceivably start regularly in 2020 and beyond, though he probably fits more as a very strong utility infielder who can play any position and get hits when needed off the bench in a more long term role.
- Kody Clemens (2020 Age: 23-24): Clemens (yes, that is his father) had a huge breakout year as a redshirt junior at Texas in 2018, though I thought the third round was a bit of a reach for him and so far, he hasn't quite figured out pro pitching as the Tigers have pushed him aggressively. In 2019, he slashed .231/.310/.397 with twelve home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, flashing big time ability at times but not consistently yet. He has good power in his left handed swing, and he got to it extremely consistently during that junior year in Austin, though it's played closer to average in pro ball as pitchers have found ways to avoid his barrel. He's controlling the zone fairly well and he does have a good shot at translating that back into tapping his power, though as a fringy defender at second base, he'll have to hit. He'll get another crack at AA in 2020 with the chance to hit his way up to the big league club.
- Sergio Alcantara (2020 Age: 23-24): Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, Alcantara came over in the ill-fated J.D. Martinez trade and despite not really panning out yet, he might still end up as the best prospect in the trade over Dawel Lugo and Jose King. In 2019, Alcantara hit .247/.346/.296 with two home runs and a 71/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Erie, which was an accurate reflection of his offensive ability. Purely a singles hitter, he has virtually no power to speak of and doesn't even drive the ball into the gaps enough to hit a lot of doubles and triples. However, he does control the zone well and he puts the ball in play consistently, so he's not useless as a hitter. His true value lies in his glove, which is elite and could play in the majors right now. That alone could get him onto the big league club, where he could be a late game defensive replacement/utility infielder, and he could stick in the majors if he figured out how to channel just enough power to start hitting those doubles and triples into the gap.
- Wenceel Perez (2020 Age: 20): Wenceel Perez, who managed to fit five e's into a twelve letter name, impressed in his first two pro seasons before hitting a bit of a speed bump in 2019. After hitting .314/.387/.358 in 2017 and .312/.368/.429 in 2018, he slumped to .233/.299/.314 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an 87/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A West Michigan in 2019. That's not a huge deal because he was only 19 years old, and the switch hitter still did a good job of controlling the strike zone while appearing in 124 of 139 games. It's that natural hitting ability that the Tigers are working to build off of, as he likely won't ever be a power hitter but he makes enough contact that he should be able to tap some gap power and maximize whatever power he does have. He's also a great runner and a very good defender at shortstop, so he's really a four tool player. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, Perez just needs to use his natural understanding of hitting to start to drive the ball more rather than simply put it in play, and he could be a starting shortstop down the road.
- Adinso Reyes (2020 Age: 18): Reyes signed for $1.45 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then lit up the Dominican Summer League in 2019 by slashing .331/.379/.508 with seven home runs and a 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at just 17 years old. He finished the season on a 17 game hitting streak and had multiple hits in 14 of his final 25 games, showing great feel for the barrel and the ability to consistently hit the ball hard right out of the gate in his young career. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that limits his walks, and while it didn't hurt him one bit against DSL pitching, it will be something to monitor as he moves stateside and starts to face higher level pitching. Reyes, like most young players, will also need to make tweaks to his hitting mechanics, but in general I don't think 2019 could have gone much better for him. A shortstop for now, he could end up anywhere in the infield when all is said and done. At this point, he's so young that it's hard to project exactly what kind of player he'll be, so we're better off just watching and waiting.
- Keep an eye on: John Valente, Jose King, Carlos Irigoyen
Outfield
- Daz Cameron (2020 Age: 23): Cameron was a highly regarded prospect coming out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, where he could have gone in the top half of the first round, but signability pushed him down to the competitive balance round and the Astros gave him and over slot $4 million deal. He went to the Tigers in the Justin Verlander trade and in 2019, he slashed .214/.330/.377 with 13 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 152/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA Toledo. He's been slow to develop, but that development has brought slow but steady progress, and he retains the loud tools that made him such an exciting prospect as an amateur. He's got wiry strength that will enable him to put a lot of balls into the gaps and his share into the seats, while his plus speed has helped him steal 109 bases in his minor league career and makes him a good center fielder. He also has a patient approach at the plate that helps him draw his share of walks, but at this point, he's struggled just enough with contact that it's limited his ability to make everything play up. Set to play all of 2020 at just 23 years old, he certainly has the chance to continue learning the nuances of advanced pitching, and I don't really see a reason to doubt that he will. If he can, he could crack the Tigers outfield in 2020 and end up as a starting center fielder that can hit 15-20 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and good defense.
- Derek Hill (2020 Age: 24): It's been a really long road up for Hill, who was a first round pick out of a Sacramento-area high school in 2014, and in 2019 he slashed .243/.311/.394 with 14 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 147/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Erie. The power was new, as he had never hit more than four in a season before, and more importantly, 2019 marked his second consecutive full season after never playing in more than 93 games from 2015-2017 due to injuries. I don't think that power will play all the way up and make him a 15 homer threat in the majors, but it's nice to see him hitting for more impact after being more of a slap hitter early in his career. Hill still needs to lock down the strike zone a bit more, but he does get some slack for all the missed time with injuries. Defensively, he's a whiz in center field that can absolutely stick there and be an asset, buying his bat even more time, and that easy plus speed also helps him on the bases, where he's stolen 156 in his career. It's more of a fourth outfielder profile than anything else, but he could finally crack the big league roster in 2020.
- Riley Greene (2020 Age: 19): Greene went fifth overall out of an Orlando-area high school in 2019, and at just 18 years old he became the top hitting prospect in the system. In his pro debut, Greene slashed .271/.347/.403 with five home runs and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, short season Connecticut, and in an aggressive assignment to Class A West Michigan. A big guy at 6'3", he's hit over power at this point because he has such an exceptional feel for hitting, both in terms of navigating counts and finding the barrel consistently, and he should move much more quickly than most high school hitters. Once he adjusts to pro pitching, I expect him to start tapping some power too, as his swing is geared towards producing power but doesn't come with much swing and miss. Greene has the chance to hit 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, though of course he still does have a long way to go and a $6.18 million signing bonus doesn't mean a guarantee.
- Bryant Packard (2020 Age: 22): Packard was a streaky hitter at East Carolina who slashed an impressive .406/.462/.671 as a sophomore, but a streakier junior season dropped him to the fifth round in 2019. In his pro debut, Packard slashed .296/.392/.422 with three home runs and a 38/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Connecticut, Class A West Michigan, and even briefly at High A Lakeland. His strong numbers definitely leave the Tigers excited about his future, as he's shown both the ability to hit for contact and power and at 6'3", the Tigers think he can tap more. He has a track record of hitting advanced pitching and that advanced approach translated into pro ball, and if he can shorten his swing and cut down on his strikeouts just a little bit, he could be a true impact hitter down the line. As a mediocre defender, it will be the bat alone that will have to carry him.
- Parker Meadows (2020 Age: 20): The younger brother of Rays standout Austin Meadows, Parker went in the second round out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2018 but stumbled a bit in his first full season, slashing .221/.296/.312 with seven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 113/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Class A West Michigan in 2019. Your classic projectable power hitter at a lanky 6'5", Meadows showed a lot of power as a high schooler, albeit from a long swing that was destined to cause swing and miss problems in pro ball. To his and the Tigers' credit, he shorted that swing up and was much more direct to the ball in 2019, and while it kept his swing and miss reasonably low, it also sapped his power considerably and he finished with just 24 extra base hits in 126 games. Because he was able to keep his strikeout rate somewhat down at 22.4%, I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be able to make further adjustments and figure himself out as a hitter, finding a middle ground between getting his arms extended to drive the ball and staying direct to said ball. The 2019 season was a minor disappointment, but it's far too early to consider his stock to be considerably down. Hopefully he'll get things figured out in 2020.
- Roberto Campos (2020 Age: 16-17): Born in June of 2003, Campos signed for $2.85 million out of Cuba in 2019 and will be one of the youngest players in all of professional baseball when he begins his career in 2020. There's only video of one swing online, from when he was 13 years old back in 2017, and there isn't a ton of publicly available information on him. What we do know is that he has a ton of power from the right side and the Tigers have to be very confident in his ability to get to it given the size of his bonus, and his most likely fit is in right or left field going forward. He'll start playing in the Dominican Summer League right around his 17th birthday this spring, and he comes with as a high of a ceiling as you can get at that age.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Robson, Troy Stokes Jr., Danny Woodrow, Jose Azocar, Brock Deatherage, Ulrich Bojarski
Starting Pitching
- Casey Mize (2020 Age: 22-23): Man, there is a lot to consider here. Mize rode an absolutely brilliant three years at Auburn to being the first overall pick in 2018, and he was in High A by the end of July. 2019 got off to as good of a start as humanly possible, and as of June 13th he was 8-0 with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, including a complete game no-hitter in his AA debut. He was untouchable. However, he came out of that June 13th start with shoulder soreness and missed nearly a month, then came back and was noticeably more human; from there he was 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. I don't know, maybe he was being cautious with his shoulder, maybe it was just a natural funk he ran into as a barely-22 year old in AA, but if anything it wasn't a good sign. Shoulder injuries can be so unpredictable, and there were minor questions about Mize's durability in college, so I'm just nervous. That said, Mize is otherwise as complete a pitcher as there can be at 22. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adds a really good slider, and can finish hitters off with a devastating splitter that is one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues. Additionally, he can command everything very well, and he knows just how to deploy his arsenal to get hitters out very consistently. That gives him true top of the rotation potential and, if this shoulder thing turns out to just be a minor speed bump, a really good chance to get there and the floor of a mid-rotation starter as soon as 2020.
- Matt Manning (2020 Age: 22): Two years after selecting Derek Hill in the first round out of high school in the Sacramento-area, the Tigers went back to the capital area and picked Matt Manning in the first round of the 2016 draft out of high school just ten minutes from where Hill grew up. Manning, though, has been much more successful, and 2019 was his best season yet as he posted a 2.56 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 148/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at AA Erie. He's a 6'6" right hander that has just continuously gotten better, to put it simply, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great curveball, a progressing changeup, and quickly improving command. He's much more refined than he was coming out of high school, filling up the strike zone and sequencing his plus stuff, and it all plays up from a smooth delivery that can make the ball jump on hitters quicker than it looks. If he can make those last couple of little refinements in 2020, he should be up in the majors relatively quickly, and he has #2 starter potential down the line.
- Alex Faedo (2020 Age: 24): Faedo went in the first round out of Florida in 2017, then after a strong first full season in 2018, he turned in another strong season in 2019 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 134/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at AA Erie. The 6'5" righty doesn't stand out in any particular area, but his well-rounded game helps makes him a strong rotation candidate. His velocity is a bit down since college, now sitting in the low 90's, and his former plus slider has been a little more inconsistent, though it still does flash plus. At the same time, he's improved his command and become a more complete pitcher, and he controlled the zone well against AA hitting in 2019. Faedo's likely role is as a #4 or a #5 starter, but he does have the chance to become a #3 if he can get a little more consistent with his stuff.
- Tarik Skubal (2020 Age: 23): Skubal was a ninth round pick out of Seattle University in 2018, but he's been absolutely dominant in his pro career so far. He had a 0.40 ERA and a 33/4 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, then in 2019 he put up a 2.42 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 179/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at High A Lakeland and AA Erie. His stuff has taken a step forward in pro ball, and he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two distinct breaking balls in a diving curveball and a harder slider. He's also thrown more strikes than expected, which has enabled his big stuff to play up in pro ball, and if he stays healthy he has real #2 or #3 starter potential. Next up for him will be continuing the development of his changeup, but otherwise he just needs to maintain the massive strides he made in 2019.
- Beau Burrows (2020 Age: 23): Burrow, a late first round pick in 2015 out of high school outside Fort Worth, looked really good early in his pro career but has been a bit less consistent in the upper minors. In 2019, he posted a 4.84 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo, missing time at various points due to nagging injuries. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, which enables him to attack hitters in a variety of ways. His command has been inconsistent throughout his career, which is finally catching up to him in the upper minors, but when he's throwing strikes he's still very difficult to hit. The full arsenal gives him a good chance to be a #4 starter, though his stuff would fit really well in the bullpen if he were to move there, and that would most likely put him in the majors in 2020.
- Joey Wentz (2020 Age: 22): Wentz was a Braves' competitive balance pick out of high school in the Kansas City area in 2016, then came over to Detroit in the Shane Greene trade this year. Between the two organizations this year, he had a 4.20 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 137/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.2 innings in AA, though he did have a strong, five start run in his brief stint on the Tigers side (2.10 ERA, 37/4 K/BB). His stuff has been inconsistent throughout his career, though at his best he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add both a good curveball and a good changeup. His command isn't pinpoint, but he's rarely wild and can hit his spots reasonably well, enough to make his stuff play up. The 6'5" lefty probably could have used a change of scenery, as he was getting buried in the Braves' deep, deep crop of arms, and this new opportunity with the Tigers could help him jump towards his ceiling of a mid rotation starter.
- Franklin Perez (2020 Age: 22): Perez was perhaps the centerpiece return in the 2017 trade that sent Justin Verlander to Houston, but lat and shoulder problems have limited him to just 27 innings over two years in his new organization. When healthy, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, any of which he can use to miss bats, and he throws plenty of strikes so that they can play up. He was really an advanced pitcher for his age before the injuries, so he'll still be just 22 years old for all of 2020. He's really a great case study for why shoulder injuries just suck so badly, because he's exceptionally talented and has top of the rotation potential, even still. Hopefully the Tigers can get him healthy and going in 2020.
- Elvin Rodriguez (2020 Age: 22): Originally an Angels prospect, Rodriguez came over to Detroit as the player to be named later in the Justin Upton trade in 2017, and he's steadily developed throughout his time in the minors. In 2019, he posted a 3.77 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 112/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at High A Lakeland, and he looks to be leading the next wave of Tigers pitching prospects behind the guys in the upper minors. He's young but he has a clear understanding of how to pitch, and he can beat you with any pitch in his arsenal by locating and sequencing them, helping them play up. He won't be an ace, but he could be a strong #4 starter or even a #3 if he can take a step forward with his low 90's velocity.
- Paul Richan (2020 Age: 23): The Cubs picked up Richan in the second competitive balance round in 2018, then traded him to the Tigers in the Nick Castellanos deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings in High A. He's a fairly generic starter, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding an average set of secondaries, but he commands everything really well and rarely hurts himself with walks. That makes all of his stuff play up, and he struck out 29 batters to just two walks after the trade. It's a basic #4/#5 starter package, but if he can sharpen his stuff just a little bit, he could be more given that command.
- Garrett Hill (2020 Age: 24): Tarik Skubal isn't the only later-round 2018 draft arm to exceed expectations in the Tigers system this year. Garrett Hill went in the 26th round out of San Diego State in 2018, then in 2019 he posted a 2.25 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 129/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. I couldn't find any velocity readings for him, but it looks like he gets some arm side run on his fastball and adds a breaking ball with some late movement and a good running changeup, all of which plays up due to his solid command. Hill's a classic back of the rotation candidate, which saying a lot for a kid who was a 26th rounder a year ago and was an unremarkable California junior college arm two years ago.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Shore, Tom de Blok, Wilkel Hernandez, Austin Bergner
Relief Pitching
- Rony Garcia (2020 Age: 22): Garcia was the first overall pick in the rule five draft this year, meaning that he'll have to stick on Detroit's 26 man roster all season long or be sent back to the Yankees. That means he'll be skipping AAA and will spend the season in either the bullpen or the rotation, though the former is probably more likely. In 2019, he posted a 4.01 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings in High A and AA, as his game has continued to gradually develop in all areas. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries including a curveball with nice two plane break, an inconsistent changeup that flashes above average, and a new cutter. He also throws strikes for the most part, and it all comes together as a rough #5 starter profile at present. Hopefully he can refine his changeup and command a bit more so that he can stick in that rotation, though since he'll be jumping straight to the majors, the Tigers might hold him back in the bullpen for a little bit while he works on that.
- Bryan Garcia (2020 Age: 25): A sixth round pick out of Miami in 2016, Garcia lost his 2018 season to Tommy John surgery but bounced back nicely in 2019 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo. He then posted a 12.15 ERA and a 7/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.2 major league innings in September, but he'll be back in 2020. Garcia has a mid 90's fastball and a good slider, which he can command well enough to fit a middle relief profile right away in 2020. Taking a step forward with either the slider, his command, or his new changeup he's been working on will likely be enough to get him into a more high leverage role.
- Ethan DeCaster (2020 Age: 25): This is an interesting arm. DeCaster began his college career at Creighton, but transferred to Duke for grad school after earning his diploma. He still had a year of eligibility and went in the 18th round to the Tigers, and promptly put up a 0.84 ERA and a 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut. I've already mentioned fellow 2018 draftees Tarik Skubal and Garrett Hill outplaying their later draft positions, so what's one more? In 2019, DeCaster had a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 71/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo, and knocking on the door to the majors barely a year out of grad school. He's a 6'3" righty with a funky sidearm delivery, so he's purely a reliever, and even in relief his fastball barely scrapes 90. However, it has a lot of run on it that makes it difficult to square up, and his frisbee slider just dives across the plate. He adds a changeup with nice fade as well, giving him three unconventional pitches to deploy against hitters late in games. I'm excited to see how he fares in the majors in 2020, since I'm pretty confident he'll earn the call at some point.
- Anthony Castro (2020 Age: 25): Castro signed out of Venezuela way back in 2011, yet he's still only 24 years old and very much a prospect. In 2019, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 116/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings as a starter at AA Erie, but his future is most likely in the bullpen. Castro sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's easy to see a bump above that in relief, and he adds a good slider that could be sharper in short spurts. His lack of a good changeup and mediocre command have held him back as a starter, but would probably be less of an issue in the bullpen. Either way, he has a live arm that makes him really interesting to watch, and his stuff has always been very difficult to square up when he's around the zone.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Funkhouser, Wladimir Pinto, Drew Carlton, Alex Lange, Zack Hess
Showing posts with label Riley Greene. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Riley Greene. Show all posts
Saturday, January 11, 2020
Thursday, July 25, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers
First five rounds: Riley Greene (1-5), Nick Quintana (2-47), Andre Lipcius (3-83), Ryan Kreidler (4-112), Bryant Packard (5-142)
Also notable: Cooper Johnson (6-172), Zack Hess (7-202), Austin Bergner (9-262), Cade Doughty (39-1162)
The Tigers' draft strategy was very clear-cut here. After loading up their farm system with tons of high upside pitchers like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Tarik Skubal, they decided to flip the script and grab exclusively hitters this year, taking bats with their first six picks. Between potential lineup-anchor Riley Greene, power bats Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, and Bryant Packard, and good defenders like Ryan Kreidler and Cooper Johnson, they really covered their bases. I also really like the seventh round selection of Zack Hess, who could be a fast moving reliever with set-up man or even closer upside. Additionally, they didn't mess around with the bonus pool, signing nine of their first ten picks to exactly slot value deals.
1-5: OF Riley Greene (Hagerty HS [FL], my rank: 6)
While Bobby Witt Jr. garnered a lot of attention as the clear best high school player in the class, Riley Greene might have the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, who went third overall to the Rockies in 2015 and grew up less than a half hour away. Greene, from the Orlando area like Rodgers, can just flat out hit. He has a big, power producing swing that would typically cause swing and miss issues in most kids his age, but he has exceptional feel for the barrel and still makes consistent hard contact against quality pitching, even against the best arms on the showcase circuit. Add in his excellent plate discipline, and you've got a kid who is probably an even safer bet to hit in pro ball than Rodgers. His raw, batting practice power might not quite stack up with the Brett Baty's or Rece Hinds' of the class, but he's so efficient about getting to it in games that he still projects for 25-30 home runs annually to go along with the high on-base percentages he looks to put up. That gives him the overall outlook of a middle of the order, impact hitter. Defensively, he's just average in left field, but it's the bat the Tigers are buying. Honestly, I see some Juan Soto in him. Committed to Florida, Greene instead signed with the Tigers at slot for $6.18 million and he's slashing .322/.413/.500 with three home runs and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Connecticut.
2-47: SS Nick Quintana (Arizona, my rank: 51)
Nick Quintana was a well-regarded recruit coming out of a Las Vegas high school and ranked #109 on my 2016 draft rankings, then all he did was get better and better each year at Arizona. He had his best year this year, when he slashed .342/.462/.626 with 15 home runs and a 54/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, including a very strong .313/.434/.661 in-conference in a tough Pac-12 Conference. Quintana is only 5'10" but he hits for plenty of power, and he got to it frequently this year. However, his hit tool is unproven, as his 19.6% strikeout rate was a little high and he also owns a modest .230/.312/.423 line with eleven home runs over two years in the elite Cape Cod League (.259/.351/.435 in the more recent season). There is some length to his swing, though I do think he'll be able to make everything play up in pro ball. Overall, he projects for 25 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages, which still makes him an impact hitter if not a true middle of the lineup guy. The Tigers also picked Quintana up as a shortstop, which seems unlikely given that he played third base for Arizona, but he's a very good defender there and could conceivably move over to shortstop if he can figure out a way to improve his range. Third base is his most likely destination, but he'll certainly be a net-positive there. Quintana signed at slot for $1.58 million and is slashing .210/.286/.290 with a home run and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Class A West Michigan so far.
3-83: 3B Andre Lipcius (Tennessee, unranked)
Like Quintana, Andre Lipcius has hit better and better each year in college. The Williamsburg, Virginia native had his best year this season, slashing .308/.399/.586 with 17 home runs and a 33/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games for Tennessee and still maintaining a .322/.404/.534 line in SEC play. He also slashed .313/.391/.456 in the Cape Cod League this past summer, showing that his production plays up against advanced competition. Lipcius has a big, whippy swing that produces a lot of power, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down at just 11.9%, which is certainly an encouraging sign for a kid with his profile. Still, the strikeouts will be important to watch as he moves through the minors, but in all he has similar offensive upside to Quintana. However, the two differ on defense despite playing the same position, as Lipcius is extremely slow and has limited range at third base despite a strong arm. He may be able to stick there if he continues to improve, but with Quintana likely to end up as the third baseman down the line and the two expected to follow similar timelines, first base is a serious possibility, which will put pressure on the bat. Lipcius signed at slot for $733,100 and is slashing .267/.331/.345 with a home run and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 30 games with Quintana at West Michigan, interestingly seeing some time at second base.
4-112: 3B Ryan Kreidler (UCLA, unranked)
With guys like Michael Toglia, Chase Strumpf, and Garrett Mitchell around you in the lineup for the #1 team in college baseball for most of the season, it's easy to slip under the radar even with good performance. Ryan Kreidler slashed .300/.370/.502 with nine home runs and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games for the Bruins, though those numbers dipped slightly to .282/.336/.470 in conference games in the Pac-12. He's 6'4" and that helps him hit for some power, but with the dip his numbers took in conference and the .229/.300/.339 line he put up on the Cape, he has something to prove in pro ball. His plate discipline is so-so and he's more of a line drive hitter anyways, so he'll have to take a step forward with his ability to barrel up the ball with loft if he wants to eventually reach average power. Overall, that's an offensive outlook of 10-15 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages, so more of a utility infielder projection. Defensively, he's quite good, as he has both the defensive actions and arm to profile anywhere in the infield. He'll get run out as a shortstop, where he has a chance to stick, but he could also be a well above average defender at third base if he ends up there. That will buy the bat some time. The Davis, California native signed at slot for $517,400, and he is slashing .253/.362/.356 with a home run and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Connecticut.
5-142: OF Bryant Packard (East Carolina, my rank: 109)
When he's going right, Bryant Packard can really hit. As a sophomore at ECU in 2018, he slashed .406/.462/.671 with 14 home runs, then went on to slash .305/.421/.576 with four home runs and a 17/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games on the Cape. However, he took a small step back in 2019 and finished at .358/.444/.550 with seven home runs and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, still great numbers but comparably pedestrian against his 2018 season. His streakiness might stem from his long swing and so-so plate discipline, and he struck out in 17.1% of his plate appearances this year. He seems like the kind of guy where pro coaching could turn him around, as that Cape line shows that he's not afraid of advanced pitching and the power he packs in his 6'3" frame is very real. Defensively, the Greenville, North Carolina native isn't much, so he'll have to hit to move up. He signed at slot for $386,600 and is slashing .328/.380/.500 with two home runs and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
6-172: C Cooper Johnson (Mississippi, unranked)
Cooper Johnson has had an interesting career trajectory. A top prospect out of high school in the Chicago area, he had a shot to go on Day One of the 2016 Draft and ranked 73rd on my list that year. However, he was unsignable and packed it up for Ole Miss, where he slashed just .213/.301/.269 as a freshman and .235/.329/.324 as a sophomore. Heading to the Cape after both seasons, he combined to hit just .145/.275/.145 over 32 games. However, while he didn't quite get his stock back to where it was three years ago, Johnson managed to right the ship a bit this year and finished at a respectable .271/.371/.449 with eight home runs and the same 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio as Packard over 63 games. Perhaps most importantly, he maintained those numbers in SEC play, where he slashed .284/.373/.431. He starts with his hands up over his head at the plate, and he uses his uppercut swing to hit for average power when he's able to get into one. However, the swing is still somewhat long and outside of his decent numbers in SEC play this year, he's completely unproven against higher level pitching. That's okay for now, because he's a catcher with a cannon arm who can handle himself behind the plate. He has a very good chance to stick back there and if he can continue the progress he made in 2019 and find the barrel consistently in pro ball, he could be a backup catcher at the big league level. Johnson signed at slot for $291,400, and he's slashing .226/.355/.306 with a 20/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
7-202: RHP Zack Hess (LSU, my rank: 90)
Ah, the good ole' premium arm with premium stuff who just hasn't gotten results. Zack Hess was draft eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and ranked 102nd on my list, but he elected to go back to Baton Rouge to try to bump up his stock after his 5.05 ERA that year. However, this year was more of the same as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the LSU, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an 82/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. The Lynchburg, Virginia native is a 6'6" righty with a ton of arm strength, firing his fastball in the low to mid 90's as a starter and bumping it to the upper 90's in relief. He also hurls a plus slider that is devastating in short spurts, though his lack of a changeup caused it to play down in the rotation. Hess also has awkward mechanics and has battled his command throughout his time in Baton Rouge, so his new Tigers organization is going to need to smooth him out there. Honestly, I see no reason for Detroit to try him as a starter at all, and they should just stick him in the bullpen and let him rocket to the majors. Though he's a junior, he turned 22 in February and is the age of a senior, so the bullpen thing becomes even better of an idea. Hess signed at slot for $227,700 and he has a 2.53 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between complex ball, Connecticut, and West Michigan, where he has worked exclusively in relief.
9-262: RHP Austin Bergner (North Carolina, unranked)
Bergner, like a lot of the guys the Tigers drafted this year, was well-regarded in high school, but he opted to attend UNC instead. Draft eligible as a sophomore, he elected to return for his junior year, where he had a 4.94 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. The Orlando-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good changeup that can really miss bats when he locates it, though his curveball is more average to a bit below. His command comes and goes and he can get hit hard when it's not on, and with the effort with which he throws and his age (turned 22 in May), he might be better off in the bullpen. However, if the Tigers are willing to be patient, they could make him a #4 or #5 starter if he refines his curve and command. Bergner signed at slot for $157,200 and has a 7.20 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between complex ball and Connecticut.
39-1162: SS Cade Doughty (Denham Springs HS [LA], my rank: 81)
With a talent level that had him in the second or third round, Cade Doughty fell to the 39th because of signability and he'll make the short trip down I-12 to LSU for school. The Baton Rouge-area high schooler has very good bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, a semi-projectable frame at 6'1", and enough whip in his swing to have some power projection. His mechanics aren't the most consistent at this point, but he finds the barrel often enough that he should be able to transition fairly smoothly to whatever tweaks the Tigers (the LSU kind) make. He's also a very good defender at third base, and he could also handle second base or the outfield. I find him very interesting and he could make an immediate impact on the LSU program.
Also notable: Cooper Johnson (6-172), Zack Hess (7-202), Austin Bergner (9-262), Cade Doughty (39-1162)
The Tigers' draft strategy was very clear-cut here. After loading up their farm system with tons of high upside pitchers like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Tarik Skubal, they decided to flip the script and grab exclusively hitters this year, taking bats with their first six picks. Between potential lineup-anchor Riley Greene, power bats Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, and Bryant Packard, and good defenders like Ryan Kreidler and Cooper Johnson, they really covered their bases. I also really like the seventh round selection of Zack Hess, who could be a fast moving reliever with set-up man or even closer upside. Additionally, they didn't mess around with the bonus pool, signing nine of their first ten picks to exactly slot value deals.
1-5: OF Riley Greene (Hagerty HS [FL], my rank: 6)
While Bobby Witt Jr. garnered a lot of attention as the clear best high school player in the class, Riley Greene might have the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, who went third overall to the Rockies in 2015 and grew up less than a half hour away. Greene, from the Orlando area like Rodgers, can just flat out hit. He has a big, power producing swing that would typically cause swing and miss issues in most kids his age, but he has exceptional feel for the barrel and still makes consistent hard contact against quality pitching, even against the best arms on the showcase circuit. Add in his excellent plate discipline, and you've got a kid who is probably an even safer bet to hit in pro ball than Rodgers. His raw, batting practice power might not quite stack up with the Brett Baty's or Rece Hinds' of the class, but he's so efficient about getting to it in games that he still projects for 25-30 home runs annually to go along with the high on-base percentages he looks to put up. That gives him the overall outlook of a middle of the order, impact hitter. Defensively, he's just average in left field, but it's the bat the Tigers are buying. Honestly, I see some Juan Soto in him. Committed to Florida, Greene instead signed with the Tigers at slot for $6.18 million and he's slashing .322/.413/.500 with three home runs and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Connecticut.
2-47: SS Nick Quintana (Arizona, my rank: 51)
Nick Quintana was a well-regarded recruit coming out of a Las Vegas high school and ranked #109 on my 2016 draft rankings, then all he did was get better and better each year at Arizona. He had his best year this year, when he slashed .342/.462/.626 with 15 home runs and a 54/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, including a very strong .313/.434/.661 in-conference in a tough Pac-12 Conference. Quintana is only 5'10" but he hits for plenty of power, and he got to it frequently this year. However, his hit tool is unproven, as his 19.6% strikeout rate was a little high and he also owns a modest .230/.312/.423 line with eleven home runs over two years in the elite Cape Cod League (.259/.351/.435 in the more recent season). There is some length to his swing, though I do think he'll be able to make everything play up in pro ball. Overall, he projects for 25 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages, which still makes him an impact hitter if not a true middle of the lineup guy. The Tigers also picked Quintana up as a shortstop, which seems unlikely given that he played third base for Arizona, but he's a very good defender there and could conceivably move over to shortstop if he can figure out a way to improve his range. Third base is his most likely destination, but he'll certainly be a net-positive there. Quintana signed at slot for $1.58 million and is slashing .210/.286/.290 with a home run and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Class A West Michigan so far.
3-83: 3B Andre Lipcius (Tennessee, unranked)
Like Quintana, Andre Lipcius has hit better and better each year in college. The Williamsburg, Virginia native had his best year this season, slashing .308/.399/.586 with 17 home runs and a 33/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games for Tennessee and still maintaining a .322/.404/.534 line in SEC play. He also slashed .313/.391/.456 in the Cape Cod League this past summer, showing that his production plays up against advanced competition. Lipcius has a big, whippy swing that produces a lot of power, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down at just 11.9%, which is certainly an encouraging sign for a kid with his profile. Still, the strikeouts will be important to watch as he moves through the minors, but in all he has similar offensive upside to Quintana. However, the two differ on defense despite playing the same position, as Lipcius is extremely slow and has limited range at third base despite a strong arm. He may be able to stick there if he continues to improve, but with Quintana likely to end up as the third baseman down the line and the two expected to follow similar timelines, first base is a serious possibility, which will put pressure on the bat. Lipcius signed at slot for $733,100 and is slashing .267/.331/.345 with a home run and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 30 games with Quintana at West Michigan, interestingly seeing some time at second base.
4-112: 3B Ryan Kreidler (UCLA, unranked)
With guys like Michael Toglia, Chase Strumpf, and Garrett Mitchell around you in the lineup for the #1 team in college baseball for most of the season, it's easy to slip under the radar even with good performance. Ryan Kreidler slashed .300/.370/.502 with nine home runs and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games for the Bruins, though those numbers dipped slightly to .282/.336/.470 in conference games in the Pac-12. He's 6'4" and that helps him hit for some power, but with the dip his numbers took in conference and the .229/.300/.339 line he put up on the Cape, he has something to prove in pro ball. His plate discipline is so-so and he's more of a line drive hitter anyways, so he'll have to take a step forward with his ability to barrel up the ball with loft if he wants to eventually reach average power. Overall, that's an offensive outlook of 10-15 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages, so more of a utility infielder projection. Defensively, he's quite good, as he has both the defensive actions and arm to profile anywhere in the infield. He'll get run out as a shortstop, where he has a chance to stick, but he could also be a well above average defender at third base if he ends up there. That will buy the bat some time. The Davis, California native signed at slot for $517,400, and he is slashing .253/.362/.356 with a home run and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Connecticut.
5-142: OF Bryant Packard (East Carolina, my rank: 109)
When he's going right, Bryant Packard can really hit. As a sophomore at ECU in 2018, he slashed .406/.462/.671 with 14 home runs, then went on to slash .305/.421/.576 with four home runs and a 17/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games on the Cape. However, he took a small step back in 2019 and finished at .358/.444/.550 with seven home runs and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, still great numbers but comparably pedestrian against his 2018 season. His streakiness might stem from his long swing and so-so plate discipline, and he struck out in 17.1% of his plate appearances this year. He seems like the kind of guy where pro coaching could turn him around, as that Cape line shows that he's not afraid of advanced pitching and the power he packs in his 6'3" frame is very real. Defensively, the Greenville, North Carolina native isn't much, so he'll have to hit to move up. He signed at slot for $386,600 and is slashing .328/.380/.500 with two home runs and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
6-172: C Cooper Johnson (Mississippi, unranked)
Cooper Johnson has had an interesting career trajectory. A top prospect out of high school in the Chicago area, he had a shot to go on Day One of the 2016 Draft and ranked 73rd on my list that year. However, he was unsignable and packed it up for Ole Miss, where he slashed just .213/.301/.269 as a freshman and .235/.329/.324 as a sophomore. Heading to the Cape after both seasons, he combined to hit just .145/.275/.145 over 32 games. However, while he didn't quite get his stock back to where it was three years ago, Johnson managed to right the ship a bit this year and finished at a respectable .271/.371/.449 with eight home runs and the same 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio as Packard over 63 games. Perhaps most importantly, he maintained those numbers in SEC play, where he slashed .284/.373/.431. He starts with his hands up over his head at the plate, and he uses his uppercut swing to hit for average power when he's able to get into one. However, the swing is still somewhat long and outside of his decent numbers in SEC play this year, he's completely unproven against higher level pitching. That's okay for now, because he's a catcher with a cannon arm who can handle himself behind the plate. He has a very good chance to stick back there and if he can continue the progress he made in 2019 and find the barrel consistently in pro ball, he could be a backup catcher at the big league level. Johnson signed at slot for $291,400, and he's slashing .226/.355/.306 with a 20/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
7-202: RHP Zack Hess (LSU, my rank: 90)
Ah, the good ole' premium arm with premium stuff who just hasn't gotten results. Zack Hess was draft eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and ranked 102nd on my list, but he elected to go back to Baton Rouge to try to bump up his stock after his 5.05 ERA that year. However, this year was more of the same as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the LSU, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an 82/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. The Lynchburg, Virginia native is a 6'6" righty with a ton of arm strength, firing his fastball in the low to mid 90's as a starter and bumping it to the upper 90's in relief. He also hurls a plus slider that is devastating in short spurts, though his lack of a changeup caused it to play down in the rotation. Hess also has awkward mechanics and has battled his command throughout his time in Baton Rouge, so his new Tigers organization is going to need to smooth him out there. Honestly, I see no reason for Detroit to try him as a starter at all, and they should just stick him in the bullpen and let him rocket to the majors. Though he's a junior, he turned 22 in February and is the age of a senior, so the bullpen thing becomes even better of an idea. Hess signed at slot for $227,700 and he has a 2.53 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between complex ball, Connecticut, and West Michigan, where he has worked exclusively in relief.
9-262: RHP Austin Bergner (North Carolina, unranked)
Bergner, like a lot of the guys the Tigers drafted this year, was well-regarded in high school, but he opted to attend UNC instead. Draft eligible as a sophomore, he elected to return for his junior year, where he had a 4.94 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. The Orlando-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good changeup that can really miss bats when he locates it, though his curveball is more average to a bit below. His command comes and goes and he can get hit hard when it's not on, and with the effort with which he throws and his age (turned 22 in May), he might be better off in the bullpen. However, if the Tigers are willing to be patient, they could make him a #4 or #5 starter if he refines his curve and command. Bergner signed at slot for $157,200 and has a 7.20 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between complex ball and Connecticut.
39-1162: SS Cade Doughty (Denham Springs HS [LA], my rank: 81)
With a talent level that had him in the second or third round, Cade Doughty fell to the 39th because of signability and he'll make the short trip down I-12 to LSU for school. The Baton Rouge-area high schooler has very good bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, a semi-projectable frame at 6'1", and enough whip in his swing to have some power projection. His mechanics aren't the most consistent at this point, but he finds the barrel often enough that he should be able to transition fairly smoothly to whatever tweaks the Tigers (the LSU kind) make. He's also a very good defender at third base, and he could also handle second base or the outfield. I find him very interesting and he could make an immediate impact on the LSU program.
Monday, May 20, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: High School Outfielders
This isn't a particularly deep class of high school outfielders, with the Atlanta area usually sending us a boatload but remaining quiet this year, but once you get past the top two rounds or so, more names do start to appear. Most of the better bats in this high school draft class will be found on the infield (see Bobby Witt, Brett Baty, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan), but it's not empty and there certainly are some headliners.
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
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