The Marlins are one of the better organizations out there when it comes to pitching development and really struggle with hitters. So naturally, they drafted a near-finished product with the bat in the first round then proceeded to take eleven consecutive pitchers in rounds 2-12, highlighted by two expensive high schoolers at the top and a slew of power college arms. I don't love the final list of names here, and I really didn't like the Jacob Berry pick to start things off. They prioritized velocity and feel for spin here, and did pick up a very interesting sleeper in twelfth rounder Cole Kirschsieper.
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1-6: 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State. My rank: #18.
Slot value: $6.04 million. Signing bonus: $6 million ($37,500 below slot value).
I'll be honest, of all the picks in the first round, this one left me scratching my head the most even if it wasn't necessarily a surprise. Brooks Lee (#5 on my board) has a very similar profile to Jacob Berry (#18 on my board) except that he hits for even more power and provides much more value on defense, and he was still available here and wound up signing for $300,000 less. Obviously teams look for different things from players and I'm never going to call my board the gospel, but these players being so similar and Lee clearly being better at the same things is just odd to me. If Berry goes on to have a significantly better career than Lee, I can eat my words. Anyways, let's talk about Jacob Berry. He originally began his career at Arizona, where he put up a monster freshman season slashing .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs, then transferred to LSU as a sophomore. The SEC proved to be no problem for the Phoenix-area native, as he slashed .370/.464/.630 with 15 home runs and a 22/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games as a draft-eligible sophomore whose May birthday makes him the age of a college junior. Berry is a switch hitter, built like a boulder full of solid muscle at 6', 210 pounds. He takes a very simple, direct hack from both sides of the plate with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. After running a solid 19.5% strikeout rate as a freshman last year, he cut that to 8.9% this spring as he just barreled up everything he saw. Despite the build, he's actually a hit-over-power guy that thrives by his ability to find the barrel. He does not boast the elite top-end exit velocities you typically see at the top of the draft, especially as a first baseman, relying on a high quantity of hard hit balls rather than absolutely crushing it here and there. That means he'll probably move pretty quickly through the minors and he could be up as soon as next season, with the potential to hit 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he manned third base for LSU this spring but probably profiles as a first baseman going forward, with clunky actions at the hot corner and an arm that might be a little bit light. There is also a chance he could crack it in left field. Regardless, he will provide value with his bat and should hit enough to play every day no matter where he winds up. It's a very solid mid to late first round profile, but the Marlins are really, really banking on his above average raw power showing up with wood bats to pick him in the top ten without a discount. So far, he's slashing .230/.327/.333 with two home runs and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.
2-46: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS [OH]. My rank: #39.
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million.
I like this pick a lot better, and I'm surprised the Marlins didn't have to go above slot value to sign Jacob Miller away from that Louisville commitment. A second to third round pick heading into the season, he had a fantastic spring that pushed him into late first round conversations, but lasted until the Marlins in the early second round. He saw a velocity bump this spring and sat in the low to mid 90's, touching as high as 99, but he stands out most for his feel for spin. Miller throws a nasty, plus curveball with wicked two-plane bite in addition to a tighter, firmer slider that looks above average and a solid changeup with some run. The 6'2" righty pounds the strike zone with solid average command for a teenager, with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. He's not the greatest athlete on the mound, but the present stuff combined with the size and command are plenty enough to over look that. Expect him to miss a ton of bats in the low minors with that power arsenal, and he could be a very solid #3 starter for Miami in time. The central Ohio native should thrive in this system, and here is some really good video giving a taste of what Marlins fans are in for. So far through three short Florida Complex League starts, he has a has allowed five runs (three earned) with three strikeouts to two walks over 3.2 innings.
3-85: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS [MO]. My rank: #91.
Slot value: $747,100. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($752,900 above slot value).
39 picks later, Karson Milbrandt got nearly as much to sign away from his Vanderbilt commitment as Miller did from his Louisville commitment. Milbrandt from Liberty, like Miller from Liberty Union, had a strong spring that moved him up about a round or so. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, a couple ticks behind Miller, but he does get much more life on the pitch with huge spin rates and plenty of running action. His slider and curveball took a step forward this spring and both now flash above average, while his changeup is inconsistent but solid. Milbrandt comes from a low three quarters slot that makes for a very deceptive look, making for a very enticing profile that the Marlins can get creative with. There is plenty of projection in his 6'2" frame and he moves well on the mound, though there is some work to be done to remain a starter. For now, he sometimes struggles to repeat his release point and shows fringy command, which does point to some relief risk. His offspeed stuff taking a step forward does help in that regard, though. If the Marlins can get the Kansas City-area native more consistent with his mechanics and help that offspeed stuff continue on the positive trend it was on, they could have a really interesting arm on their hands.
4-112: RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke. My rank: #152.
Slot value: $543,800. Signing bonus: $510,000 ($33,800 below slot value).
Moving on to the college ranks, the Marlins believe they're buying low on Marcus Johnson, who was in the second round conversation entering the season. He was excellent out of the Duke bullpen as a sophomore last year, with a 3.05 ERA and a 59/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, then transitioned to the rotation this year with mixed results. His ERA ballooned to 5.61 while he ran a still-solid 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, that K rate dipping slightly from 26.5% to 23.8% while his walk rate rose slightly from 5.4% to 7.8%. His fastball touches 97 in short stints but sat more in the low 90's as a starter, coming in with nice riding action that helps it play a little above that velocity when located. He snapped off a plus slider out of the bullpen that looked more above average as a starter, also adding in a solid changeup. With a big, projectable 6'5" frame and a repeatable, short arm delivery that helps him pound the strike zone, he does have what it takes to start even with the more ordinary stuff. Even in the starting role, he did show flashes of that true bat missing stuff and the Marlins believe they can get him showing it more consistently even in those extended outings, which could make him a #3 starter if it all works out. If he does move back to the bullpen, the Southern California native has already proven he can thrive off that fastball/slider combination while controlling at bats and overpowering hitters. So far, he has allowed four runs over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts to four walks in the Florida Complex League.
5-142: RHP Josh White, California. My rank: #200.
Slot value: $406,500. Signing bonus: $406,500.
The Marlins went back to the college ranks in the fifth round to pick up another power arm, taking Josh White out of Cal. He was great as a sophomore in 2021 with a 2.79 ERA and an 81/25 strikeout to walk ratio, but took a step back as a junior with a 5.05 ERA and a 91/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings. White sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for up to 97, coming in with steep angle and some minor running action. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball, flashing above average with both his slider and curveball at his best. The San Francisco Bay Area native does add a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch for now that he doesn't have much feel for. With an upright delivery and average athleticism, he doesn't move as well on the mound as perhaps a guy like Karson Milbrandt or Marcus Johnson, and his command is very inconsistent. The Marlins are buying the arm strength on a guy who has flashes serious bat missing stuff at his best and has thrived at times in the Pac-12, combined with that great feel for spin. The 6'1" righty doesn't come with a ton of projection but could work in as a back-end starter or a breaking ball-heavy reliever, and increased velocity on his fastball could help make up for its lack of life. So far, he has allowed four runs through four innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out six while walking three.
6-172: RHP Jared Poland, Louisville. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $306,400. Signing bonus: $149,000 ($157,400 below slot value).
Jared Poland is the first big money saver to help afford Karson Milbrandt, but he still brings value in his own right. A two-way player early in his Louisville career, he gave up hitting after his sophomore season and saw his pitching take a step forward as a result. 2022 was his best year yet, where he posted a 3.46 ERA and a 103/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, but it plays below its velocity because he puts steep angle on it with average life. Poland makes his money on his offspeed pitches, including an above average slider with deep bite and a solid average changeup. The 6' righty locates his stuff well and loves to go right after hitters, helping his stuff play up further except when his fastball catches too much plate. A senior sign that will turn 23 this offseason, the Marlins will want him to move a little quicker and he may fit best in a bullpen role, where he can pitch off his offspeed stuff and add a tick to that generic fastball. It's not too dissimilar a profile to Josh White a pick earlier, except that he's a year older with better command. He has thrown 2.2 shutout innings so far in the Florida Complex League, striking out two and walking three.
12-352: LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois. My rank: #186.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
This pick could be a very interesting sleeper, especially in an organization that develops pitching as well as the Marlins do. Cole Kirschsieper rose to prominence with a flat out incredible run through last summer, in which he played in the Appalachian League, with the US Collegiate National Team, and in the Cape Cod League, where he regularly faced elite competition. Between the three, he allowed just one earned run over 36 innings (0.25 ERA) and struck out 54 against 17 walks, putting himself firmly on my radar entering the season. While he couldn't quite build off that success, he was still solid at Illinois this spring and posted a 3.17 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. Kirschsieper doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 and touching 93, so he'll need to add velocity. The slider is average with some sweeping action, while his above average changeup misses bats and keeps hitters off balance. The 5'11" lefty comes from a deceptive, low three quarters slot that makes all of his stuff play up, working east-west and commanding everything pretty well. He does not presently throw hard enough to get major league hitters out, so adding at least a tick of velocity if not a little more will be very important. Beyond that, sharpening his offspeed pitches would be useful, but they're playable now. If the Chicago-area native moves to the bullpen, he has enough life on his fastball to play well with only a small uptick to perhaps 91-93 as opposed to the 89-91 he sits around now being very useful. Despite being on the smaller side, I would like to see how he can play in the rotation for now. He's looked good so far, with three shutout innings in the Florida Complex League with four strikeouts and no walks.
14-412: 1B Torin Montgomery, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Marlins drafted Torin Montgomery in the 35th round out of high school in 2019, and three years later they got their guy. He began his college career at Boise State but transferred to Missouri after one season, and in 2022 he caught fire at the plate, slashing .362/.456/.542 with seven home runs and a 37/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Big and strong at 6'3", 230 pounds, he can really smoke a baseball with the best of them, showing plus raw power in the tank although he doesn't tap it very often. For now, he hits the ball on the ground too much and doesn't elevate with as much authority as he's capable of, so working on getting more loft into his swing will be important in his development. Not just a pure slugger, Montgomery makes a lot of contact from the right side and rarely swings and misses, though he can be a tad aggressive. It's a very enticing bat with the right development, and he'll have to hit because he's limited to first base defensively. The Seattle-area native doesn't run all that well and looks like a potential platoon/bench bat in the future. So far, he's slashing .259/.341/.407 with two home runs and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.
16-472: SS Brett Roberts, Florida State. My rank: #217.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
The Marlins finally came home to the Sunshine State in the sixteenth round, grabbing Brett Roberts out of Florida State. Roberts is not a native Floridian, having grown up in Atlanta and beginning his college career at Tennessee Tech, but he adjusted very well to Tallahassee and the ACC slate to land himself in the sixteenth round. In 2022, he slashed .300/.372/.461 with five home runs and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, holding down an everyday role for the Seminoles. A pro hitter, he makes a ton of contact from the right side and struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances, regularly putting the ball in play and making the defense work. He uses the whole field and hits it where they ain't, but the overall impact is a question. He produces unremarkable exit velocities and I rarely see him turn on the ball, so most of his power will come to the gaps. An above average runner, he can play all over the field and projects as a solid utility infielder, showing plenty enough range and arm strength to give you confidence at shortstop. He's off to a hot start in the Florida Complex League, slashing .256/.333/.488 with three home runs and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.
19-562: C Carmine Lane, South Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Carmine Lane represents the one and only player from South Florida in the Marlins' draft class. A native of Lake Worth about sixty miles north of downtown Miami, he attended American Heritage High School in Delray Beach before matriculating north to USF in Tampa. He has gotten better and better each year there, including a huge 2022 in which he slashed .332/.390/.523 with ten home runs and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He takes huge, healthy hacks from the right side that help him really stroke the ball to the pull side, but he still ran a solid 14.3% strikeout rate with strong bat to ball skills. He may need to tone down his approach just a little bit as he moves from the AAC to pro ball, but his combination of leverage and bat to ball skills aren't easy to find in the second to last round of the draft. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted him as a catcher despite having played every single position on the diamond except catcher for USF, even pitching 2.1 innings as a freshman. I'm not entirely sure what Miami intends to do with him defensively, but he played mostly third base for the Bulls and showed off a strong arm that would work well behind the plate. He's hitless with three strikeouts in six at bats so far in the Florida Complex League, but has drawn two walks.
