Reviewing the Washington Nationals Farm System

Coming into the season, the Nationals' farm system was very top heavy, and with Juan Soto no longer a prospect and not much up to take his place, the system is pretty shallow behind top prospects Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Even with a heavy emphasis on drafting pitching in recent years, the system remains hitter-heavy as many of those pitchers have failed to materialize into legitimate prospects. Fortunately, the Nationals are fairly deep at two of the toughest positions to find: catcher and shortstop.

Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019

The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.

Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.

Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.

Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.

Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.

Reviewing my 2018 Breakout Predictions

Before the season, I wrote about "one breakout star to watch" for each team, with one article for the AL and one for the NL. I'll go team by team and review each pick. Unfortunately, while I had some hits, many of my breakout picks flopped and three had Tommy John surgery before the season even started, so overall I am a little disappointed in the way this list turned out. If I still have time, I'll try again for the 2019 season.

Baltimore Orioles: Chance Sisco (2 HR, .181/.288/.269, 1 SB, 59 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
As with all things Orioles related in 2018, this didn't quite work out. Sisco's bat proved to be overmatched by major league pitching, and he struck out in 35.9% of his plate appearances while slashing .181/.288/.269 over 63 games. He turns 24 in February so he is still plenty young and will try again next year, but so far, not so good for Sisco.

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (21 HR, .240/.298/.433, 5 SB, 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
While Devers didn't exactly flop in 2018, his .240/.298/.433 line was still somewhat disappointing after he slashed .284/.338/.482 in a smaller sample size last season. While the power was pretty good, he struggled to get on base and a .298 OBP won't exactly cut it unless you're hitting 30+ home runs. He did slash .294/.351/.382 in the postseason and picked up some timely hits, and having just turned 22 during the World Series, he has plenty of time to move past his moderately disappointing 2018.

New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar (27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Here's one that I definitely got right. There was an opening for Andujar at third base and he took it, clubbing 76 extra base hits in 149 games and holding down a critical lineup spot for one of baseball's better teams. While his 4.1% walk rate cut into his production and left him with a pedestrian .328 OBP, it's hard to ask for more out of a 23 year old rookie than what Andujar gave in 2018.

Tampa Bay Rays: Brent Honeywell (did not play - injured)
Shortly after I picked Honeywell as the Rays' breakout star to watch, he tore his UCL and had to miss the season. My runner up was Jake Bauers, who slashed .201/.316/.384 with eleven home runs in 96 games and was more in the Rafael Devers boat of "not necessarily disappointing, but not great either."

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (22 HR, .239/.302/.468, 5 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Hernandez didn't exactly light the world on fire, he did break out for 22 home runs in his first full season. Overall, 58 extra base hits in 134 games is pretty good, and a 107 wRC+ meant he was an above average hitter despite a low .302 OBP. I'll consider Hernandez a success here, though with his poor defense he was barely above replacement level.

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada (17 HR, .235/.315/.400, 12 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Put Moncada in the same category as Rafael Devers. He was very inconsistent in 2018, slashing as high as .274/.361/.516 in April and as low as .197/.242/.350 in June. Overall, though, his numbers turned out quite decently: 17 home runs, a .235/.315/.400 line, and 2.0 fWAR. He hit the ball hard, but his 33.4% strikeout rate kept him from sustaining hot stretches and kept his overall production more pedestrian. Let's see what happens in 2019.

Cleveland Indians: Bradley Zimmer (2 HR, .226/.281/.330, 4 SB, 63 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Zimmer was limited to just 34 games in 2018 due to injuries, so his big breakout did not come. However, he's just about to turn 25 and Michael Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer are all free agents, so Zimmer does have a good chance to make 2019 the year.

Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario (19 HR, .224/.317/.393, 3 SB, 95 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
Candelario hit 19 home runs, walked at a healthy 10.7% clip, and played good defense in 2018 as a 24 year old near-rookie, but a .224 batting average limited his overall slash line. While expectations may have been a little higher, his 2.5 fWAR shows he was more than solid, and the Tigers should feel comfortable moving forward with him as their starting third baseman.

Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi (14 HR, .276/.306/.498, 32 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR)
Before the season, I asked "could 2018 finally be Mondesi's year?" and as it turns out, the answer was yes. Mondesi was on the MLB.com top fifty prospect list way back in 2013, and now the 23 year old is finally producing after disappointing 2016 and 2017 seasons in the majors. This year, he slashed .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games, putting up 2.8 fWAR in less than half a season. Honestly, even I didn't realize Mondesi has that good of a year. His future was in doubt for a while, but now it looks like he can take over at shortstop for the departing Alcides Escobar.

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (0 HR, .156/.183/.200, 5 SB, -3 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Well...whoops. I was hoping Buxton would finally take the step forward into stardom or at least semi-stardom after slashing .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, but he was hurt on and off in 2018, spent time in the minors, and ultimately never got anything going. It's hard to believe after four up and down years in the majors, he's still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to make things click, but he'll likely never become the superstar the Twins envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2012 or when he was widely considered the game's top prospect after slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases at Class A and High A in 2013.

Houston Astros: David Paulino (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6/2 K/BB, 6.2 IP)
Paulino's prospect status is still intact after pitching parts of three seasons in the majors, and he's still just 24, but ultimately 2018 was not his year after he ended up sitting out much of it with injuries. Traded to the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna, he'll give it another try in 2019.

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 3.31 ERA, 63/22 K/BB, 3.8 fWAR)
Aside from the Tommy John surgery, 2018 could not have gone much better for Ohtani. He became baseball's first legitimate two-way star since Babe Ruth, both hitting and pitching at All Star levels. It's so, so awful that he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to the surgery, but Ohtani was everything even his wildest optimists hoped for in 2018, at least on a per-game basis.

Oakland Athletics: Jharel Cotton (did not play - injured)
Like Honeywell, Jharel Cotton did not appear in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and it looks like Matt Chapman would have been a better pick for this spot. My #2 pick behind Cotton, Franklin Barreto, played just 32 games and slashed .233/.253/.493, with his power looking great but his horrid plate discipline holding him back.

Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145/32 K/BB, 166.2 IP)
Hey look, a success that wasn't necessarily an obvious pre-season choice like Ohtani. After battling injuries for years, Gonzales was finally healthy in 2018, and he responded in a great way by going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a very solid 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings. He was pretty inconsistent start to start, but when he was on, he looked like the future ace the Cardinals thought they drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Gonzaga back in 2013.

Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun (2 HR, .222/.269/.333, 0 SB, 55 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR)
Ah, another bust (at least for now). For the second straight season, Calhoun struggled to catch on in the majors, and we'll have to wait another year to see whether his power is the real deal. Among rookies expected to make an impact in 2018, Calhoun was among the biggest disappointments.

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna (26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR)
I don't think the prediction that Acuna would break out was a particularly novel one, and Acuna certainly lived up to the hype by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs as a 20 year old. Before the season, there was plenty of praise heaped on him as a future superstar, and so far he has only made those claims stronger. Acuna will be one of the game's better outfielders, if not one of the best, for a long time.

Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson (11 HR, .199/.240/.338, 2 SB, 56 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
On the flip side, Lewis Brinson sucked, to put it frankly. Though he had occasional outbursts of power, he struggled to make contact and only got as much playing time as he did because the Marlins just plain needed him there. I'd rank him ahead of Calhoun as the biggest disappointment of the season just because of his higher pre-season expectations, but the 24 year old can try again next year.

New York Mets: Amed Rosario (9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 24 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR)
While Rosario's numbers don't pop out, good defense at shortstop and better performance later in the season helped him put up an admirable year for a 22 year old. I expect Rosario to continue to develop in 2019 and may then have the breakout we're all waiting for.

Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford (3 HR, .214/.319/.393, 2 SB, 96 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Crawford finally began to get some regular playing time after years of being a top prospect, his .214/.319/.393 line over 49 games is still well short of expectations. There's talk that the Phillies might bring in Manny Machado, but if they decide to stick with Crawford, he'll have another opportunity to prove himself next year. He turns 24 in January so he's still young, but he has been stagnant for long enough that some doubt is beginning to creep in.

Washington Nationals: Victor Robles (3 HR, .288/.348/.525, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did this year, but an arm injury in April knocked him out for three months and by the time he returned, Soto was basically already Babe Ruth. Still, once he was called up for 21 games in September, he looked very good, slashing .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and playing his trademark great defense. It's not Robles' fault he was hurt for much of the season, and I see no reason to think he can't challenge for the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award.

Chicago Cubs: Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 49.2 IP)
I picked Butler as the Cubs' best breakout candidate, though I did note at the time that the roster was pretty much set and nobody was really likely to have a breakthrough season. Butler couldn't make it work in Chicago and was ultimately sent to Texas in the Cole Hamels deal, where he has been a mediocre reliever.

Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (10-12, 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165/49 K/BB, 169.2 IP)
So no, Castillo didn't break out, with his 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from 2017 being better than this year's marks of 4.30 and 1.22, respectively, though he did only throw 89.1 innings in 2017. However, Castillo looked much better in the second half, going 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 11 starts, striking out 69 and walking 14 in 66.1 innings. He's perfectly capable of maintaining that over a full season, and I would not be surprised if next year was the big breakout.

Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP)
I was a little bit disappointed when the Brewers did not end up using Hader as a starter, but he was so good in relief this year (143 strikeouts...really??) that it's hard to regard 2018 as anything but an absolute success. Hader went from intriguing upside prospect to bullpen monster in one year, and he's likely not going anywhere.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 136/53 K/BB, 111.2 IP)
So Glasnow didn't exactly break out in 2018, but he did have consistent major league success for the first time in his career, so this is should be regarded as a partial success. I think the Rays will be a good place for him and that he could continue to build on his success next year.

St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB, 200.2 IP)
I don't think 2018 could have possibly gone better for Mikolas. He was very mediocre in his first three seasons in the majors from 2012-2014, but after three years in Japan from 2015-2017, he came back looking like an ace. He didn't overpower hitters, but he hit his spots and induced weak contact to make the NL All Star Team.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Taylor Clarke (did not play - spent year in AAA)
So Clarke did go 13-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 2018 - at AAA Reno. He never got his shot in the Arizona rotation in 2018, so he'll try again in 2019, when he'll be 26.

Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon (5 HR, .232/.307/.376, 1 SB, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
So he got his first significant MLB playing time, but ultimately he could not hang onto the first base job and slashed just .232/.307/.376 in 91 games. At this point, I'm not as confident in McMahon's ability to hold onto a first base job, with Ian Desmond currently getting time there and Grant Lavigne looking to make a quick run through the minors.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP)
Buehler had a fantastic rookie season in 2018, putting up a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 24 games (23 starts) before dominating in the postseason. That marks three straight seasons in which a rookie put together not just a good but a great season, following Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Buehler looks like an ace in the making and will likely remain in the LA rotation for a long time.

San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet (did not play - injured)
Okay so in all, I lost three of my breakout picks to Tommy John surgery. That's unfortunate, because I was really looking forward to what Lamet could do in 2018 after striking out 28.7% of his opponents as a rookie in 2017. My second pick, Luis Perdomo, wasn't much better: 1-6, 7.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 39/22 K/BB.

San Francisco Giants: Chris Stratton (10-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 112/54 K/BB, 145 IP)
The numbers weren't great, but on the positive side, Stratton pitched a full season for the first time in his career and even threw a complete game, two hit shutout on September 14th against the Rockies. He'll never reach the potential the Giants thought he had when they took him in the first round (20th overall) out of Mississippi State in 2012, but he looks like he could be a moderately useful back-end starter.

One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: NL

The AL version of this list was recently published. Here is one guy to watch on each team whose name could be much more familiar by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season given in parentheses.

Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna (Age 20)
High A/AA/AAA: 21 HR, .325/.374/.522, 44 SB, 155 wRC+ in 139 games
There are more than a few players primed for breakouts on the Braves, but perhaps none has a higher ceiling for 2017 than Ronald Acuna, the 20 year old sensation who tore up the three highest minor league levels as a teenager last season. Somehow, he got better with each promotion, and between High Class A Florida (28 games), AA Mississippi (57 games), and AAA Gwinnett (54 games), he crushed 21 home runs, stole 44 bases, and slashed .325/.374/.522 with 144 strikeouts to 43 walks in a total of 139 games. The K/BB ratio might not seem to be the prettiest, but his strikeout rate dropped with each level (from 31.7% in High A to 23% in AA to 19.8% in AAA) and his walk rate remained fairly static despite the increase in competition (6.3% to 7.4% to 7%). He'll likely begin 2018 with Gwinnett again to finish ironing out some holes in his approach, but he'll probably be up by the end of April and from there, the sky is the limit. Ender Inciarte is holding down center field, but Lane Adams is far from entrenched in left field and 34 year old Nick Markakis shouldn't be too much of a road block in right. Long story short, when he's ready, which should be very soon if not now, there will be a spot for him to play every day. With his combination of seemingly every tool, he's a star in the making. With that, don't overlook the guys listed below as others; I listed an extra one just because there are so many.
Others: 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Max Fried

Miami Marlins: OF Lewis Brinson (Age 24)
MLB: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+ in 21 games
AAA: 13 HR, .331/.400/.562, 11 SB, 146 wRC+ in 76 games
Perhaps the most exciting player to come to Miami in this offseason's complete tear-down was outfielder Lewis Brinson, a South Florida native bursting with tools. He hits and he hits it hard, and with his speed and defense, he's a complete player. While it is true that AAA Colorado Springs plays in a hitters' park in a generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Brinson's .331/.400/.562 slash line is still very impressive and at the very least proves he's major league ready. Though his .106/.236/.277 slash line with the Brewers was a bit less inspiring, he did draw seven walks for a very respectable 12.7% rate, proving he wasn't completely overmatched. Additionally, three of his five hits went for extra bases (including two home runs), so his power transferred up in the small sample as well. With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Ichiro Suzuki all gone from last year's outfield, the stage is set for him to try his hand as a starter in the Marlins' outfield.
Others: 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra

New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age 22)
MLB: 4 HR, .248/.271/.394, 7 SB, 74 wRC+ in 46 games
AAA: 7 HR, .328/.367/.466, 19 SB, 116 wRC+ in 94 games
All projection and no track record as recently as the start of the 2016 season, Amed Rosario broke out by slashing .324/.374/.459 with 19 stolen bases between High Class A Port St. Lucie and AA Binghamton that year, then continued to mash with a .328/.367/.466 line and 19 more stolen bases at AAA Las Vegas in 2017. This performance earned a call-up for the 21 year old shortstop, who held his own by slashing .248/.271/.394 across 46 major league games. Rosario is a great defender who has proven bat to ball and running abilities, looking like a future leadoff man if he can learn to take a walk. Unfortunately, the latter may take some time, considering his horrendous 49/3 strikeout to walk ratio with the Mets this past season, though his 87/40 and 67/23 marks in the minors in 2016 and 2017, respectively, are much better. I don't think Rosario will be an instant star in New York, but 2018 could see him begin to build towards that goal.
Others: 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Seth Lugo

Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .214/.356/.300, 1 SB, 83 wRC+ in 23 games
AAA: 15 HR, .243/.351/.405, 5 SB, 114 wRC+ in 127 games
One of the most highly regarded Phillies prospects in recent memory, Crawford has seen his star fade just a little bit upon reaching AAA. In 87 games with Lehigh Valley in 2016, he slashed just .244/.328/.318, and he wasn't much better in the first half of 2017, slashing .211/.328/.330 in 76 games. However, he turned it around in the second half, slashing .287/.385/.513 in 51 games for the IronPigs and earning a call-up to Philadelphia in September. His bat was light in those 23 games (.214/.356/.300), but the second half turnaround was just what the Phillies wanted to see. Crawford should have an easier time adjusting to the majors than most minor leaguers because of his extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him to a solid 97/79 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA this year. Even after his promotion to the majors, he held a 22/16 ratio, showing he could spot major league fastballs and offspeeds, so now the only step left is for him to start punishing mistakes.
Others: RHP Nick Pivetta, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Ben Lively

Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age 20-21)
MLB: 0 HR, .250/.308/.458, 0 SB, 96 wRC+ in 13 games
High A/AA: 10 HR, .300/.382/.493, 27 SB, 147 wRC+ in 114 games
We round out the NL East with yet another high ceiling, athletic position player, and Victor Robles may end up being the best of them all. Robles, who doesn't turn 21 until May 19th, is currently the youngest player ever to suit up in the majors, and joins Ozzie Albies (January birthday) as one of only two MLB players born in the year 1997. Robles began the season at High Class A Potomac, but slashed .289/.377/.495 with 16 stolen bases in 77 games to force a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he kept on hitting to the tune of a .324/.394/.489 slash line and 11 stolen bases in 37 games. In the majors for the month of September, he put up a respectable .250/.308/.458 line over 13 games, showing that he is at least ready for a shot. He'll likely start with some seasoning in AAA, but once he comes up, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. For starters, he's blazing fast and has a cannon arm, making him a potential Gold Glove defender in center field, and he has great plate discipline for such a young player. Combine that with his athleticism and natural feel for the barrel, and he can post high on-base percentages and be a perfect leadoff man. The only area where he doesn't excel is power, but he should generate average pop and with his strong, athletic build, could max out as an Andrew McCutchen-type player. On top of it all, he is considered to have a great head on his shoulders, and that will be invaluable when his chance in the big leagues comes, likely sooner rather than later.
Others: RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Erick Fedde, OF Andrew Stevenson

Chicago Cubs: RHP Eddie Butler (Age 27)
MLB: 4-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/28 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 13 games (11 starts)
AAA: 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 30/12 K/BB, 45.2 IP in 8 starts
It's tough to pinpoint any real breakout candidate on the Cubs, considering pretty much every position is set with veterans or otherwise proven players. That said, if any of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Tyler Chatwood gets hurt, Eddie Butler could be the guy who steps up and makes an impact. Butler pushed himself into the national prospect conversation by dominating the mid-minor leagues in 2013 (9-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/52 K/BB across three levels), but the former Radford Highlander never quite figured it out with the Rockies, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in parts of three seasons with them. Traded to the Cubs in 2017, he finally found his footing in the majors, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 13 games (11 starts), and he could springboard off of that in 2018 if given the opportunity (though fellow starters Mike Montgomery and Jen-Ho Tseng will also gun for a spot in the case of an injury).
Others: OF Albert Almora, C Victor Caratini, RHP Jen-Ho Tseng

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo (Age 25)
MLB: 3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 98/32 K/BB, 89.1 IP in 15 starts
AA: 4-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 14 starts
Traded as a part of the Casey McGehee deal of 2014, the Andrew Cashner deal of 2016, and the Dan Straily deal of 2017, Luis Castillo is making the Giants, Padres, Marlins regret their decisions. He dominated AA in 2017 (2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB with Pensacola) before a call-up to Cincinnati, where he continued to mow down hitters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/32 strikeout to walk ratio. Interestingly, his strikeout rate actually went up after his promotion to the majors, having struck out 25.6% of AA hitters and 27.3% of major league hitters. He likely won't best his half-season rate stats from 2017, but those numbers held over a full season are borderline ace level. If his 2017 stats were for real, which I believe they may have been, then Castillo is the next face of the Reds rotation and that could begin in 2018.
Others: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Sal Romano, RHP Robert Stephenson

Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Josh Hader (Age 24)
MLB: 2-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 68/22 K/BB, 47.2 IP in 35 games
AAA: 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 51/31 K/BB, 52 IP in 12 starts
Drafted in the 19th round out of a Maryland high school way back in 2012, Josh Hader slowly climbed the minor league ladder while dominating his competition, going 23-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 101 games (69 starts) up through his promotion to AAA Colorado Springs in 2016, striking out 471 and walking 171 in 420.1 innings. However, he struggled to adjust to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, and in 26 starts since that promotion, he is 4-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Brewers decided to give him a change of scenery by not only promoting him to the majors, but shifting him to the bullpen as well. It worked, as Hader dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 68/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.2 innings. Manager Craig Counsell has said that he will begin 2018 in the bullpen again, but a move to the rotation is certainly possible and Hader has the stuff to do it. In a best case scenario, Hader could become a mid-rotation force or better for the Brewers in the near future, and even if that isn't the case, he has proven he is very effective as a power reliever.
Others: RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Corbin Burnes

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age 24)
MLB: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 56/44 K/BB, 62 IP in 15 games (13 starts)
AAA: 9-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/32 K/BB, 93.1 IP in 15 starts
Tyler Glasnow is about as enigmatic as it gets. The 6'8" right hander has absolutely obliterated minor league hitting to the tune of a 45-21 record, a 2.02 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 785/278 strikeout to walk ratio in 593.1 innings. This utter domination includes AAA, where he is a career 19-6 pitcher with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 321/116 strikeout to walk ratio over 244.1 innings. The trouble, however, has been translating that success just one more step to the majors. Over 22 major league outings over the past two seasons (including 17 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, striking out 80 and walking 57 in 85.1 innings. He still has that blazing mid to upper 90's fastball, but his command has been non-existent and hitters have been able to punish his mistakes. While he struck out 38.5% of those he faced in AAA this year, that number stood at just 18.4% in the majors, while his walk rate jumped from 8.8% to 14.4%. Glasnow does have an opportunity to jump back into the rotation if one of Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, or Trevor Williams gets hurt or becomes ineffective, and if he can put it together in 2018, he could finally become the rotation force the Pirates have envisioned for years. However, the Pirates have stated that they are open to using him in the bullpen this year, where his fastball could play up into the upper 90's and he could focus his energy. Either way, this could be the year Glasnow finds success, even if it's not the ace-level success some envisioned when he was climbing through the minors.
Others: 3B Colin Moran, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Austin Meadows

St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas (Age 29)
NPB (Japan): 14-8, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187/23 K/BB, 188 IP in 27 starts
Last year, Eric Thames made a triumphant return from three years in South Korea to blast 31 home runs for the Brewers. This year, their NL Central rivals are hoping to catch the same lightning in a bottle, this time from Japan. Miles Mikolas (Mikolas pronounced like Mike) was last season in the U.S. going 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, so he headed to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants. Apparently, something clicked for him over there, and in three seasons in the NPB, Mikolas went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 378/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.2 innings in 62 starts. His strikeout rate went up each year, from 14.9% in 2014, his final year in the MLB to 19.2% in his first year in Japan in 2015, to 22% in 2016, and finally up to 25.1% in 2017. Meanwhile, he posted a career-low 3.1% walk rate this year, and the Cardinals liked his performance enough to give him a two year, $15.5 million deal. He apparently upped his velocity during his time in Japan while refining his secondary pitches, all while maintaining and even improving the stellar command he had in the states. Eric Thames showed us that it isn't impossible for American returnees from Asia to make an impact right away, and Mikolas will look to follow in his footsteps.
Others: RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Alex Reyes

Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Taylor Clarke (24-25)
AA/AAA: 12-9, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138/52 K/BB, 145 IP in 27 starts
There aren't many openings in the Arizona lineup for new guys to break in, and the rotation looks set with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley. However, one is bound to get hurt, and Braden Shipley and Taylor Clarke look like frontrunners to take that spot if it comes up. Originally drafted in the third round out of the College of Charleston as a senior in 2015, Clarke pitched very well in 2015 and 2016 and began 2017 with AA Jackson, where he put up a very strong 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 107/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Reno not long after his 22nd birthday, Clarke finally found a challenge in the hitter-friendly environment, going 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over six starts, striking out 31 and walking 13 in 33.2 innings. Still, his strikeout rate remained stable by dropping just two points from 23.5% to 21.5%, as did his walk rate by rising from 8.6% to 9%. A fly ball pitcher, he was hurt by the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, and while Arizona has some pretty thin air as well, they just introduced a humidor to try to mitigate that effect. The humidor could be a huge help for Clarke, and if given the chance, the Ashburn, Virginia native could make an impact on the NL West pennant race.
Others: RHP Braden Shipley, 2B Ketel Marte, RHP Jimmie Sherfy

Colorado Rockies: 1B Ryan McMahon (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .158/.333/.211, 0 SB, 46 wRC+ in 17 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .355/.403/.583, 11 SB, 157 wRC+ in 119 games
A year ago, Ryan McMahon was in a very different position, coming off a season in which he struggled for the first time in his career (12 HR, .242/.325/.399 in 133 games at AA), and he was set to repeat the level to start his 2017 season. However, this time around, he proved 2016 to be a fluke and slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games, forcing a promotion to AAA Albuquerque. There, in the hitter-friendly environment, he moved himself from "good" to "elite" in the prospect rankings, slashing .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs in 70 games, finding himself in the majors by August. While he struggled against major league pitching (.158/.333/.211), he did manage five walks against five strikeouts, and if he can get just a bit more loft on the ball (he's primarily a ground ball hitter), his power could take off at Coors Field. He has a clear path to starting at first base this season, so watch for McMahon's bat in the thin air.
Others: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Jeff Hoffman, C Tom Murphy

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler (Age 23-24)
MLB: 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB, 9.1 IP in 8 games
High A/AA/AAA: 3-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/31 K/BB, 88.2 IP in 28 games (19 starts)
The Dodgers seemingly always have breakout guys who jump into the national conversation early on. Last year, it was Cody Bellinger. The year before, it was Corey Seager. Before that, you had guys like Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner turning into stars. This year, there are two main candidates to be the next guy, and I'm going to write up Walker Buehler over Alex Verdugo. Buehler was drafted in the first round, 24th overall, as part of a standout Vanderbilt class in 2015, following Dansby Swanson (1st) and Carson Fulmer (8th). However, it would be over a year before Buehler stepped foot on a minor league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he didn't really get his career going until 2017. However, he dominated High Class A in five starts (1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB) and found himself in AA, where he continued to pitch well (3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64/15 K/BB). He finally found a challenge with AAA Oklahoma City, putting up a respectable 4.63 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio in the hitter-friendly environment. Promoted to the majors for eight relief appearances, he was knocked around a bit (7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), but he did strike out 27.3% of those he faced (12 in 9.1 innings). The Dodger rotation looks to consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, but if one gets injured (and with Hill and Ryu in there, one probably will), Buehler could be the first to hear his name called. If he can ring in his command just a little, his stuff is nasty enough (upper 90's fastball, plus curveball), he could give the Dodgers a third straight NL Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Others: OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Dennis Santana

San Diego Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (Age 25-26)
MLB: 7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139/54 K/BB, 114.1 IP in 21 starts
AAA: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB, 39 IP in 8 starts
Dinelson Lamet didn't make his minor league debut until he was 22, which is old for a Dominican prospect, but he rose quickly once he got on the professional mound. In full season ball by 2015, he jumped three levels in 2016 and began 2017 at AAA El Paso in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, nobody seemed to tell Lamet that the environment was supposed to be difficult, and after eight solid starts (3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB), he was promoted to the majors. Making 21 starts for the Padres, he struggled a bit with command (11.1% walk rate), but hitters had a tough time connecting with his nasty stuff and he struck out 28.7% of those he faced, or 139 in 114.1 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate did rise throughout the year, but if he can keep his stuff in check, it's nasty enough to make him a mid-rotation starter and to build on the 4.57 ERA from this year. The Padres are still rebuilding, so as long as he stays healthy, he should have no problem earning a spot in the rotation and could thrive.
Others: RHP Luis Perdomo, OF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Kaz Makita

San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton (Age 27)
MLB: 4-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 51/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP in 13 games (10 starts)
AAA: 4-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 71/22 K/BB, 79.1 IP in 15 starts
The Giants are doing their best to go worst to first this year, adding numerous bats including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. However, the pitching staff has remained mostly untouched, especially in the starting department, leaving two unproven guys to take the #4 and #5 spots. Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are frontrunners, but Stratton has a particularly strong case and could be in for a big season. Picked 20th overall out of Mississippi State in 2012, he developed slowly didn't get his first extended look in the majors until 2017, his age-26 season. In it, he was successful, going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 13 games (10 starts), but there is certainly room for improvement. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit high, but his walk rate trended down slightly as the season moved on. With a full season in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Stratton could finally fulfill his mid-rotation potential.
Others: RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Andrew Suarez, 2B Miguel Gomez