2023 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels.
Stat line: 44 HR, .304/.412/.654, 20 SB, 180 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games.

Stat line: 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4.00 FIP, 167/55 K/BB in 132 innings.
Just when you think Shohei Ohtani can't get any better, he gets better. In fact, if we completely disregarded his pitching, he would still be in serious contention for the AL MVP Award. Even as a DH, he led American League hitters in fWAR and finished fourth in bWAR due to an elite 180 wRC+, nine points ahead of second place Corey Seager (169) who played in sixteen fewer games. Not only did he lead the AL in fWAR in wRC+, but he also did so in home runs, extra base hits (78), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA (.433), runs created above average (60.6), and just about every other comprehensive hitting statistic you can think of. It's hard to dispute that Shohei Ohtani was the best hitter in the American League this year, period. But then we also get to consider his pitching. While he wasn't quite the ace we saw last season, he was still a well above average starting pitcher that made 23 starts with a 72 ERA- (28% better than league average) and put up 2.4 more fWAR, bringing his total to 9.0 on the season. Unfortunately we won't get to see him pitch next year, perhaps opening up the AL MVP race a little bit (if he's even in the AL), but for 2023 he deserves to win the AL MVP Award unanimously.

Runner-up: SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers.
Stat line: 33 HR, .327/.390/.623, 2 SB, 169 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 119 games.
After Ohtani, the rest of the AL MVP field is wide open. For me, Corey Seager comes out on top, and the fact that he did so despite spending a couple stints on the IL and playing just 119 games speaks to how good he was when he was on the field. He led all American League hitters not named Ohtani in wRC+, extra base hits (75), batting average, slugging percentage, wOBA (.419), and runs created above average (39.5), the latter of which is a cumulative stat that he compiled in a dozen or more fewer games than his competition. Even when the Rangers slumped, his bat never went cold and he posted an OPS of .885 or higher in every month except October, where he played just one game. All of this, of course, while starting 112 games at shortstop, the most valuable defensive position on the diamond other than catcher. When you're the consensus second best hitter in the league while playing shortstop, there's not much to argue against. It's just the fact that he played only 119 games which makes it close with the rest of the field. Had he played a full season, he'd be competing with Ohtani for the award itself.

Honorable mention: 2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers.
Stat line: 29 HR, .276/.348/.478, 14 SB, 124 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR in 162 games.
It's not a traditional MVP stat line, but Marcus Semien deserves to be in the conversation for runner-up alongside his double play partner. Semien gets here on the strength of his defense and durability. A Gold Glove contender at second base, he was fourth among all AL infielders in outs above average and hit much, much better than first place Andres Gimenez (97 wRC+) and third place Maikel Garcia (84) and comfortably bested second place Bobby Witt Jr. (115) as well. Alongside Seattle's Eugenio Suarez, he was one of two American League players to appear in every game this season, while also leading all AL players in plate appearances (753) and runs scored (122). Semien's fingerprints were truly on everything this year for Texas, and always positive. While his 126 wRC+ was only good for twelfth in the league, he was certainly no slouch with the bat, finishing second in the league in total bases to Ohtani (320) and fourth in extra base hits (73). Runs created above average is a cumulative stat and his 24.3 were good for eighth in the AL, putting him in that upper tier of hitters across the league in terms of overall offensive impact. He saved 13.3 runs on defense according to Fangraphs, and none of the seven players on that list saved more than Julio Rodriguez's 5.1. It's the most well-rounded profile in the AL MVP race.

Others

RHP Gerrit Cole (Yankees): 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 222/48 K/BB in 209 IP
RHP Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 237/55 K/BB in 185 IP

RHP Sonny Gray (Twins): 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, 183/55 K/BB in 184 IP

OF Julio Rodriguez (Mariners): 32 HR, .275/.333/.485, 37 SB, 126 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 155 games
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): 30 HR, .276/.319/.495, 49 SB, 115 WRC+, 5.7 fWAR in 158 games

National League MVP

Winner: OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 41 HR, .337/.416/.596, 73 SB, 170 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 159 games.
It's really so close between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts. Acuña was the better hitter, but not by much. He was also the better baserunner, but his caught stealings eat some of the value from his 73 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Betts' average defense soundly clears Acuña's well below average defense. The counting stats are of course incredible for Acuña, who not only became the first player with 40 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season, but also put up the first 40-60 and the first 40-70 season in baseball history. Additionally, he played in all but three games for the Braves, while Betts missed ten games for the Dodgers, and that little bit is enough to give Acuña the tiebreaker. He led the NL in virtually everything, including plate appearances (735), runs scored (149), hits (217), stolen bases, on-base percentage, OPS (1.012), total bases (383), wOBA (.428), wRC+, and fWAR. In fact, the 149 runs scored are the third highest single season total since integration, behind only 2000 Jeff Bagwell (152) and 1949 Ted Williams (150). Especially incredible given his high octane style of play is that he never slumped this season, never posting an OPS below .917 in any month and really turning on the jets as the season closed, slashing .343/.407/.714 in September to seal up the MVP race. Acuña put on a show at the plate, put on a show on the bases and was there performing every single day for Atlanta.

Runner-up: OF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 39 HR, .307/.408/.579, 14 SB, 167 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 152 games.
Mookie Betts just misses behind Ronald Acuña despite being a better defender and nearly as good a hitter. It was perhaps the most all-around balanced performance in the country, as he didn't lead the NL any single individual stat, nothing, but still put up over eight wins above replacement. He started slowly, hitting just .232/.339/.424 through his first 26 games, but heated up as the season wore on. He was hitting .277/.383/.560 at the end of July, which is very solid but not quite MVP caliber, then went on a tear to hit .455/.516/.839 in the month of August, thrusting himself into the NL MVP race right alongside Acuña. Unfortunately he couldn't quite keep up with his Atlanta counterpart in the stretch run, but it's still a pretty incredible season. He hit for power, coming one big fly short of a 40 homer/40 double season, got on base at a high rate, rarely struck out, ran the bases well, and played a solid right field.

Honorable mention: 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 29 HR, .331/.410/.567, 23 SB, 163 wRC+, 7.9 fWAR in 161 games.
All year it was Acuña vs Freeman in the NL MVP race, so when Betts caught fire in August and Acuña closed things out with a strong September, Freeman's merely "solid" finish to the season (.296/.382/.481 in September/October) put him just behind. Still, this is one of the more unique seasons we've seen from a first baseman recently. Playing in all but one game, he put up a 20-20-.400 (HR/SB/OBP) season that's rarely seen from a first baseman, in this case not since Paul Goldschmidt did it twice back to back in 2015 and 2016, and before that, Jeff Bagwell in 1996, 1997, and 1999. Additionally, his 59 doubles tied 2000 Todd Helton for the highest single season total since integration in 1947. Freddie was an on base and extra base hit machine in 2023, and even though he deservedly gets dinged for playing first base, he was a solid defender there and his 23 stolen bases led his position. It was a pretty cool season to watch from the veteran in his fourteenth season. He just beats out Matt Olson, whose 54 home runs were nothing to shake your finger at (while playing in all 162 games to boot), but Freeman was a better defender, a better baserunner, and got on base at a higher clip.

Others
1B Matt Olson (Braves): 54 HR, .283/.389/.604, 1 SB, 160 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games
OF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 25 HR, .285/.362/.506, 54 SB, 133 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 155 games
OF Juan Soto (Padres): 35 HR, .275/.410/.519, 12 SB, 155 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 162 games
SS Francisco Lindor (Mets): 31 HR, .254/.336/.470, 31 SB, 121 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 160 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 15-4, 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 222/48 K/BB in 209 innings.
It took until the end of the season for a pitcher to step forward and take control of the AL Cy Young race, but Gerrit Cole made it happen with a torrid stretch that saw him go 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings in his final seven starts of the season. In the end, that helped him lead all AL pitchers in innings pitched, ERA, and WHIP, three of the most important traditional stats, while finishing third in strikeouts and fourth in FIP. Additionally, he did so while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park (where his ERA was half a run higher than on the road) and in an extremely competitive AL East. That all points to a pretty clear-cut Cy Young case, though I will note that he had strong defense behind him that recorded six outs above average and helped him outperform his xwOBA by .033, with a .256 real mark against a .289 expected mark. There's a debate nowadays with the advent of expected statistics whether we should consider what a player "could have" done with different defensive outcomes, and while there's merit to that, I still lean towards rewarding what actually happened. It can be a tiebreaker, which you'll see with the next two names, but I won't let it take an award away from Gerrit Cole when he very much earned it.

Runner-up: RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stat line: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 237/55 K/BB in 185 innings.

It was really, really close between Kevin Gausman and Sonny Gray for second place on this list. I went back and forth multiple times. Gray gets Gausman in ERA, WHIP, and FIP. Gausman struck out 54 more batters while throwing one more inning. Looking behind them, Gray pitched in front of a terrible Twins defense while Gausman was helped by a good Blue Jays defense. Though Gausman didn't really need that defense, because he had all those strikeouts and also gave up many of his runs via the home run, unlike Gray. However, looking at the difference between wOBA and xwOBA (i.e., how "unlucky" each pitcher was), Gray was actually more "lucky" than Gausman despite having a worse defense. So where does that leave us? Pretty much in a tie if you ask me. And I'll give the tie to Gausman because he pitched in a tougher division in the AL East, while Gray pitched for the best team in an extraordinarily weak AL Central. Should he get dinged for that, probably not, but I'm really looking for something to separate the two and I'm going to use it. Now looking to Gausman alone, he really had a tremendous season. His 237 strikeouts led the American League, as did his 5.3 fWAR, while his 2.97 FIP was second only to Gray. He allowed four or fewer runs in 27 of his 31 starts, almost always putting the Blue Jays in a position to win.

Honorable mention: RHP Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins.
Stat line: 8-8, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, 183/55 K/BB in 184 innings.
I may have Sonny Gray a sliver of a hair behind Gausman, but he had a tremendous season. He led the AL in FIP and put up the second best ERA in the league despite pitching in front of a bad defense, making for the best year of his career. He allowed three or fewer runs in 29 of his 32 starts, outdoing Gausman in that regard with his consistency, though he did average fewer than six innings per start. Otherwise, there's not much to say here that I didn't say in Gausman's column.

Others
RHP Pablo Lopez (Twins): 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.33 FIP, 234/48 K/BB in 194 innings
RHP Zach Eflin (Rays): 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.01 FIP, 186/24 K/BB in 177.2 innings
RHP George Kirby (Mariners): 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 172/19 K/BB in 190.2 innings
RHP Luis Castillo (Mariners): 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.81 FIP, 219/56 K/BB in 197 innings
RHP Kyle Bradish (Orioles): 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 168/44 K/BB in 168.2 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: LHP Blake Snell, San Diego Padres.
Stat line: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 FIP, 234/99 K/BB in 180 innings.
Look, I can point to lots of advanced statistics that show that Blake Snell wasn't the best pitcher in the National League in 2023, and many of them are very real. He pitched in front of an elite Padres defense, outperformed his xwOBA by 34 points (.300 expected vs .266 real), and was incredibly lucky to strand 86.7% of his baserunners, by far the highest number in all of baseball (Gerrit Cole was second at 80.4%). That last number, let's face it, carries luck as a major factor. For all those reasons, you can galaxy brain yourself into picking someone else in the Cy Young. However, this is an award about what really happened, and at the end of the day, Snell got the job done. Yeah, he was lucky to leave all those guys on base, but there is something to being able to bear down and not let things compound. That led to a 2.25 ERA that led the NL by 0.73, a tremendous margin. Sure, his defense helped him a lot, but nobody came close to keeping runs off the board like Snell did. His 234 strikeouts were also good for second in the league, and the guy ahead of him had an ERA more than a run and a half higher. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 30 of his 32 starts and didn't allow four or more in a start after May 19th. In fact, in those final 23 starts, he went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, the best pitcher in baseball for four and a half months.

Runner-up: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves.
Stat line: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.85 FIP, 281/58 K/BB in 186.2 innings.
After Snell (and really including Snell), the rest of the NL Cy Young race is extremely wide open. There are about five names I could put here and feel good about. I'll go with Strider, in no small part because striking out 281 batters in under 190 innings is just incredible. Not just the highest total in the majors, it's the most strikeouts in a season since Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander struck out 326 and 300, respectively, in 2019. And interestingly enough, it's the highest single season total ever for a pitcher who threw fewer than 212 innings – and Strider did it in just 186.2. If you're looking for the next highest total for a pitcher in under 200 innings, that belongs to 2016 Jose Fernandez at 253 in tragically his final season. But the strikeouts aren't just a nice number to look at. It helped him register the lowest FIP in the league, more than a full run lower than his ERA, and while pitching wins don't really matter, winning twenty games is extremely uncommon nowadays. He pitched in front of a mediocre Braves defense that hurt him a bit on balls in play, leading to more baserunners than he could have had, and his 70.3% strand rate (remember that Snell was at 86.7%) means that he was at least partially unlucky that he couldn't spread out his baserunners.

Honorable Mention: RHP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies.
Stat line: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.15 FIP, 212/39 K/BB in 192 innings.
Zack Wheeler's profile is very similar to Spencer Strider, if a touch less extreme. While he didn't strike out as many batters, his 212/39 strikeout to walk ratio was actually a touch better than Strider's 281/58, while he also slightly cleared him in ERA and WHIP and fell a touch behind in FIP. He did all this while pitching in front of a terrible Phillies defense that seriously inflated his ERA and WHIP, and he similarly struggled to keep runners from scoring on the rare occasions they reached base. In all, he actually led all MLB Pitchers in fWAR at 5.9, which isn't a huge total but was enough to push to the forefront in a season where no pitcher separated himself in either league. While the 3.61 ERA wasn't great (hurt by poor defense behind him and hits tending to clump together), he was extremely consistent and always gave the Phillies a chance to win, allowing four or fewer earned runs in 30/32 starts.

Others
RHP Logan Webb (Giants): 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 194/31 K/BB in 216 innings.

LHP Justin Steele (Cubs): 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3.02 FIP, 176/36 K/BB in 173.1 innings.
RHP Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 220/47 K/BB in 210 innings.

RHP Kodai Senga (Mets): 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.64 FIP, 202/77 K/BB in 166.1 innings.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (Marlins): 3.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.55 FIP, 208/55 K/BB in 178.2 innings.

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: 3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 28 HR, .255/.325/.489, 10 SB, 123 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR in 150 games.
Gunnar Henderson got off to a bit of a slow start, hitting just .170/.341/.310 into mid-May, but he turned on the jets and hit .274/.321/.528 with 25 home runs and a 131 wRC+ over 117 games from that point on, with his 4.2 fWAR in that span putting him seventh in the AL. Once he shook off that slump, he hit for power, he got on base at a decent clip, and he played solid defense at third base. That's about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get from a kid who didn't turn 22 until halfway through the season. There were a lot of very good rookies in the AL this year, but none could quite match Henderson's standing as an All Star-caliber regular.

Runner-up: RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 10-4, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.52 FIP, 141/45 K/BB in 142 innings.
Gunnar Henderson may have the Rookie of the Year award wrapped up, but Tanner Bibee was truly exceptional in his rookie season in Cleveland making it closer than you'd think. In a year where we have Cy Young contenders posting ERA's in the mid three's, Tanner Bibee got his under three while finishing second among all AL rookies in innings pitched behind Hunter Brown. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 25 starts, meaning only twice all year did he leave a start where he didn't put the Guardians in a very good position to win the game. He was helped by a pretty good defense behind him, but overall we saw borderline ace-caliber stuff from the 24 year old this season.

Honorable mention: C Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
Stat line: 23 HR, .282/.308/.538, 0 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR in 104 games.

It's hard to find catchers who can hit. The Astros have been rolling with Martin Maldonado, his elite glove, and his mediocre bat and continue to do so, but in 2023, they got a great complement in Yainer Diaz. He only played 104 games, but he blasted 23 home runs and put up a 127 wRC+ that was sixth among all MLB catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, rookie or not. He started slow, hitting .217/.242/.317 over his first 21 games, but turned it around to slash .295/.322/.583 the rest of the way as one of the best hitting catchers in the game once he got his feet wet. Beyond the bat, Diaz is one of the better catch and throw backstops in the game, controlling the running game and saving his pitchers from passed balls, though his overall defensive stats did get dinged for poor framing. Still, the framing and perhaps an aggressive approach were the only holes in his profile this year.

Others

RHP Yennier Cano (Orioles): 2.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.84 FIP, 65/13 K/BB in 72.2 innings.

2B Edouard Julien (Twins): 16 HR, .263/.381/.459, 3 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 109 games.
3B Josh Jung (Rangers): 23 HR, .266/.315/.467, 1 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 122 games.

RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles): 4.35 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.93 FIP, 129/49 K/BB in 122 innings.

RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners): 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.98 FIP, 119/26 K/BB in 131.1 innings.

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stat line: 25 HR, .285/.362/.506, 54 SB, 133 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 155 games.
Corbin Carroll put together one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. Playing in nearly every game for the Diamondbacks, he finished second in all of baseball with 54 stolen bases while adding 25 home runs, 30 doubles, and ten triples, making for arguably the best power/speed combination in the game behind Ronald Acuña Jr. Not only that, but by getting on base at a .362 clip, he was more or less the complete hitter and put himself into down ballot MVP consideration. One of the fastest runners in the game, his big time speed helped him overcome some otherwise rough edges in his defensive game and play a solid center field as well. All together, his 6.0 fWAR were the most of any rookie not just in 2023, but since Aaron Judge put up 8.8 in 2017. There are other NL rookies that put up standout seasons, but Carroll's stands out above the rest. 

Runner-up: RHP Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Stat line: 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.63 FIP, 202/77 K/BB in 166.1 innings.
You could argue Kodai Senga was the best rookie pitcher in baseball this year, holding an ERA under 3.00 while qualifying for the ERA title, a rarity nowadays, and striking out over 200 even if he was a bit wild. Even more impressive is that ERA's were up among the best pitchers in the game this year, so Senga's 2.98 mark was fifth in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. He got better and better as the season moved along and didn't allow more than three runs in a start after June 23rd. These days, there are fewer and fewer reliable, durable starting pitchers who can keep runs off the board and stay on the mound, and Senga provided one in his first go around.

Honorable mention: CF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 23 HR, .248/.353/.437, 16 SB, 118 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 151 games.
It's hard to be quiet on a national brand like the Dodgers, but James Outman quietly put up one of the best seasons of any rookie in either league. Playing in 151 games, he blasted 23 home runs, walked at a high rate to push his OBP up over .350, swiped a few bags, and played standout defense in center field. In all, that's an elite defensive center fielder that was an 18% better hitter than league average and played almost every game, not too shabby for a rookie. Of course, this stat probably means nothing due to the small sample size, but he was one of the more "clutch" hitters in the game this year slashing .378/.472/.822 with five home runs in 53 plate appearances in the ninth inning or later.

Others
LF Nolan Jones (Rockies): 20 HR, .297/.389/.542, 20 SB, 135 WRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 106 games.
RHP Bobby Miller (Dodgers): 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.51 FIP, 119/32 K/BB in 124.1 innings.
1B Spencer Steer (Reds): 23 HR, .271/.356/.464, 15 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR in 156 games.
C Francisco Alvarez (Mets): 25 HR, .209/.284/.437, 2 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 123 games.
SS Matt McLain (Reds): 16 HR, .290/.357/.507, 14 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 89 games.

Reviewing my 2018 Breakout Predictions

Before the season, I wrote about "one breakout star to watch" for each team, with one article for the AL and one for the NL. I'll go team by team and review each pick. Unfortunately, while I had some hits, many of my breakout picks flopped and three had Tommy John surgery before the season even started, so overall I am a little disappointed in the way this list turned out. If I still have time, I'll try again for the 2019 season.

Baltimore Orioles: Chance Sisco (2 HR, .181/.288/.269, 1 SB, 59 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
As with all things Orioles related in 2018, this didn't quite work out. Sisco's bat proved to be overmatched by major league pitching, and he struck out in 35.9% of his plate appearances while slashing .181/.288/.269 over 63 games. He turns 24 in February so he is still plenty young and will try again next year, but so far, not so good for Sisco.

Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers (21 HR, .240/.298/.433, 5 SB, 90 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
While Devers didn't exactly flop in 2018, his .240/.298/.433 line was still somewhat disappointing after he slashed .284/.338/.482 in a smaller sample size last season. While the power was pretty good, he struggled to get on base and a .298 OBP won't exactly cut it unless you're hitting 30+ home runs. He did slash .294/.351/.382 in the postseason and picked up some timely hits, and having just turned 22 during the World Series, he has plenty of time to move past his moderately disappointing 2018.

New York Yankees: Miguel Andujar (27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Here's one that I definitely got right. There was an opening for Andujar at third base and he took it, clubbing 76 extra base hits in 149 games and holding down a critical lineup spot for one of baseball's better teams. While his 4.1% walk rate cut into his production and left him with a pedestrian .328 OBP, it's hard to ask for more out of a 23 year old rookie than what Andujar gave in 2018.

Tampa Bay Rays: Brent Honeywell (did not play - injured)
Shortly after I picked Honeywell as the Rays' breakout star to watch, he tore his UCL and had to miss the season. My runner up was Jake Bauers, who slashed .201/.316/.384 with eleven home runs in 96 games and was more in the Rafael Devers boat of "not necessarily disappointing, but not great either."

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (22 HR, .239/.302/.468, 5 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Hernandez didn't exactly light the world on fire, he did break out for 22 home runs in his first full season. Overall, 58 extra base hits in 134 games is pretty good, and a 107 wRC+ meant he was an above average hitter despite a low .302 OBP. I'll consider Hernandez a success here, though with his poor defense he was barely above replacement level.

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada (17 HR, .235/.315/.400, 12 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Put Moncada in the same category as Rafael Devers. He was very inconsistent in 2018, slashing as high as .274/.361/.516 in April and as low as .197/.242/.350 in June. Overall, though, his numbers turned out quite decently: 17 home runs, a .235/.315/.400 line, and 2.0 fWAR. He hit the ball hard, but his 33.4% strikeout rate kept him from sustaining hot stretches and kept his overall production more pedestrian. Let's see what happens in 2019.

Cleveland Indians: Bradley Zimmer (2 HR, .226/.281/.330, 4 SB, 63 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Zimmer was limited to just 34 games in 2018 due to injuries, so his big breakout did not come. However, he's just about to turn 25 and Michael Brantley, Rajai Davis, and Brandon Guyer are all free agents, so Zimmer does have a good chance to make 2019 the year.

Detroit Tigers: Jeimer Candelario (19 HR, .224/.317/.393, 3 SB, 95 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
Candelario hit 19 home runs, walked at a healthy 10.7% clip, and played good defense in 2018 as a 24 year old near-rookie, but a .224 batting average limited his overall slash line. While expectations may have been a little higher, his 2.5 fWAR shows he was more than solid, and the Tigers should feel comfortable moving forward with him as their starting third baseman.

Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi (14 HR, .276/.306/.498, 32 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR)
Before the season, I asked "could 2018 finally be Mondesi's year?" and as it turns out, the answer was yes. Mondesi was on the MLB.com top fifty prospect list way back in 2013, and now the 23 year old is finally producing after disappointing 2016 and 2017 seasons in the majors. This year, he slashed .276/.306/.498 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases in just 75 games, putting up 2.8 fWAR in less than half a season. Honestly, even I didn't realize Mondesi has that good of a year. His future was in doubt for a while, but now it looks like he can take over at shortstop for the departing Alcides Escobar.

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (0 HR, .156/.183/.200, 5 SB, -3 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Well...whoops. I was hoping Buxton would finally take the step forward into stardom or at least semi-stardom after slashing .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, but he was hurt on and off in 2018, spent time in the minors, and ultimately never got anything going. It's hard to believe after four up and down years in the majors, he's still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to make things click, but he'll likely never become the superstar the Twins envisioned when they drafted him second overall in 2012 or when he was widely considered the game's top prospect after slashing .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases at Class A and High A in 2013.

Houston Astros: David Paulino (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 6/2 K/BB, 6.2 IP)
Paulino's prospect status is still intact after pitching parts of three seasons in the majors, and he's still just 24, but ultimately 2018 was not his year after he ended up sitting out much of it with injuries. Traded to the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna, he'll give it another try in 2019.

Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani (22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 3.31 ERA, 63/22 K/BB, 3.8 fWAR)
Aside from the Tommy John surgery, 2018 could not have gone much better for Ohtani. He became baseball's first legitimate two-way star since Babe Ruth, both hitting and pitching at All Star levels. It's so, so awful that he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to the surgery, but Ohtani was everything even his wildest optimists hoped for in 2018, at least on a per-game basis.

Oakland Athletics: Jharel Cotton (did not play - injured)
Like Honeywell, Jharel Cotton did not appear in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and it looks like Matt Chapman would have been a better pick for this spot. My #2 pick behind Cotton, Franklin Barreto, played just 32 games and slashed .233/.253/.493, with his power looking great but his horrid plate discipline holding him back.

Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (13-9, 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145/32 K/BB, 166.2 IP)
Hey look, a success that wasn't necessarily an obvious pre-season choice like Ohtani. After battling injuries for years, Gonzales was finally healthy in 2018, and he responded in a great way by going 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a very solid 145/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings. He was pretty inconsistent start to start, but when he was on, he looked like the future ace the Cardinals thought they drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Gonzaga back in 2013.

Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun (2 HR, .222/.269/.333, 0 SB, 55 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR)
Ah, another bust (at least for now). For the second straight season, Calhoun struggled to catch on in the majors, and we'll have to wait another year to see whether his power is the real deal. Among rookies expected to make an impact in 2018, Calhoun was among the biggest disappointments.

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuna (26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR)
I don't think the prediction that Acuna would break out was a particularly novel one, and Acuna certainly lived up to the hype by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs as a 20 year old. Before the season, there was plenty of praise heaped on him as a future superstar, and so far he has only made those claims stronger. Acuna will be one of the game's better outfielders, if not one of the best, for a long time.

Miami Marlins: Lewis Brinson (11 HR, .199/.240/.338, 2 SB, 56 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR)
On the flip side, Lewis Brinson sucked, to put it frankly. Though he had occasional outbursts of power, he struggled to make contact and only got as much playing time as he did because the Marlins just plain needed him there. I'd rank him ahead of Calhoun as the biggest disappointment of the season just because of his higher pre-season expectations, but the 24 year old can try again next year.

New York Mets: Amed Rosario (9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 24 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR)
While Rosario's numbers don't pop out, good defense at shortstop and better performance later in the season helped him put up an admirable year for a 22 year old. I expect Rosario to continue to develop in 2019 and may then have the breakout we're all waiting for.

Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford (3 HR, .214/.319/.393, 2 SB, 96 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
While Crawford finally began to get some regular playing time after years of being a top prospect, his .214/.319/.393 line over 49 games is still well short of expectations. There's talk that the Phillies might bring in Manny Machado, but if they decide to stick with Crawford, he'll have another opportunity to prove himself next year. He turns 24 in January so he's still young, but he has been stagnant for long enough that some doubt is beginning to creep in.

Washington Nationals: Victor Robles (3 HR, .288/.348/.525, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR)
Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did this year, but an arm injury in April knocked him out for three months and by the time he returned, Soto was basically already Babe Ruth. Still, once he was called up for 21 games in September, he looked very good, slashing .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and playing his trademark great defense. It's not Robles' fault he was hurt for much of the season, and I see no reason to think he can't challenge for the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year Award.

Chicago Cubs: Eddie Butler (2-3, 5.62 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 49.2 IP)
I picked Butler as the Cubs' best breakout candidate, though I did note at the time that the roster was pretty much set and nobody was really likely to have a breakthrough season. Butler couldn't make it work in Chicago and was ultimately sent to Texas in the Cole Hamels deal, where he has been a mediocre reliever.

Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (10-12, 4.30 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165/49 K/BB, 169.2 IP)
So no, Castillo didn't break out, with his 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP from 2017 being better than this year's marks of 4.30 and 1.22, respectively, though he did only throw 89.1 innings in 2017. However, Castillo looked much better in the second half, going 5-4 with a 2.44 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 11 starts, striking out 69 and walking 14 in 66.1 innings. He's perfectly capable of maintaining that over a full season, and I would not be surprised if next year was the big breakout.

Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Hader (6-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP)
I was a little bit disappointed when the Brewers did not end up using Hader as a starter, but he was so good in relief this year (143 strikeouts...really??) that it's hard to regard 2018 as anything but an absolute success. Hader went from intriguing upside prospect to bullpen monster in one year, and he's likely not going anywhere.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 136/53 K/BB, 111.2 IP)
So Glasnow didn't exactly break out in 2018, but he did have consistent major league success for the first time in his career, so this is should be regarded as a partial success. I think the Rays will be a good place for him and that he could continue to build on his success next year.

St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB, 200.2 IP)
I don't think 2018 could have possibly gone better for Mikolas. He was very mediocre in his first three seasons in the majors from 2012-2014, but after three years in Japan from 2015-2017, he came back looking like an ace. He didn't overpower hitters, but he hit his spots and induced weak contact to make the NL All Star Team.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Taylor Clarke (did not play - spent year in AAA)
So Clarke did go 13-8 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 2018 - at AAA Reno. He never got his shot in the Arizona rotation in 2018, so he'll try again in 2019, when he'll be 26.

Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon (5 HR, .232/.307/.376, 1 SB, 68 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
So he got his first significant MLB playing time, but ultimately he could not hang onto the first base job and slashed just .232/.307/.376 in 91 games. At this point, I'm not as confident in McMahon's ability to hold onto a first base job, with Ian Desmond currently getting time there and Grant Lavigne looking to make a quick run through the minors.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP)
Buehler had a fantastic rookie season in 2018, putting up a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 24 games (23 starts) before dominating in the postseason. That marks three straight seasons in which a rookie put together not just a good but a great season, following Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger. Buehler looks like an ace in the making and will likely remain in the LA rotation for a long time.

San Diego Padres: Dinelson Lamet (did not play - injured)
Okay so in all, I lost three of my breakout picks to Tommy John surgery. That's unfortunate, because I was really looking forward to what Lamet could do in 2018 after striking out 28.7% of his opponents as a rookie in 2017. My second pick, Luis Perdomo, wasn't much better: 1-6, 7.05 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 39/22 K/BB.

San Francisco Giants: Chris Stratton (10-10, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 112/54 K/BB, 145 IP)
The numbers weren't great, but on the positive side, Stratton pitched a full season for the first time in his career and even threw a complete game, two hit shutout on September 14th against the Rockies. He'll never reach the potential the Giants thought he had when they took him in the first round (20th overall) out of Mississippi State in 2012, but he looks like he could be a moderately useful back-end starter.

Biggest Takeaways From the 2018 Season

In my second installment of this piece (see 2017 version here), I'll be looking at exactly what the most important and most memorable developments from the 2018 season were. First off, congratulations to the Boston Red Sox, taking home their ninth World Series title and fourth in the past fourteen years. What else should we remember about 2018?

Pitching Staff Management is Fundamentally Changing
When Buck Showalter failed to use relief-ace Zach Britton in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game because he was waiting for a "save situation," even as the game went into extra innings, it provided the spark that would slowly change pitching staff management forever. We saw it a little bit in the 2017 playoffs, then in 2018, the ball really got rolling. Starters are throwing less than ever, and the Rays (and to a lesser extent the A's) even experimented with openers. Guys like Ryne Stanek, Diego Castillo, Hunter Wood, and Sergio Romo served as openers for Ryan Yarbrough and Yonny Chirinos, and the Rays benefited. I'd expect more teams to join the trend next season. In the playoffs, hooks came quicker than ever, and many of us were surprised to see starters come out for the seventh inning at all when they did. Closers came in in the eighth inning, and hopefully we'll see more of that next season. Whatever you think about bullpening or openers, the starting pitcher is going to continue to recede.

Data Analytics Works
The final four teams in the playoffs - the Red Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Brewers - were four of the teams that relied the most heavily on analytics. All those high school coaches, barstool pundits, and opinionated uncles who think "the nerds are ruining the game," they might want to either thank them for their favorite team's success. The "eye test" and "gut feelings" just don't match up to empirical data, and we're getting more and more of the latter every year. Sabermetricians already nearly perfected offensive evaluation with stats like wOBA and wRC+, and Statcast is even beginning to dip its foot into quantifying something we have struggled to understand forever: defense. Fielding percentage is an awful judge of ability, and sabermetric stats like DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) just began to scratch the surface. With Statcast, we're at least beginning to understand outfield defense with stats like catch probability and outs above average. We still haven't quite figured out how to quantify infield defense with Statcast; that's up next.

Parity is Becoming a Thing of the Past
Unless the MLB does something, our divisions will look more and more like the 2018 AL East, with the Red Sox and Yankees blowing everyone out and the Blue Jays and Orioles sitting at the bottom with no chance. Rebuilds work, and the more you commit to them, the better they do. Look at the Astros. Playing .500 ball is not much better for your fanbase than playing .400 ball, which is in turn not much better than playing .300 ball. Simply put, if you're not winning, then it pays to tear down the team and just lose until your stockpiled prospects reach the majors. That's what we're seeing in Miami, Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), and Detroit. This is both good for baseball and bad; it's good because it enables small market teams like the ones listed to compete with the Boston's, New York's, and Los Angeles's of the world, but it is bad because it just leads to awful teams and boring division races. I'm not sure what the solution is, but don't expect more than two or three exciting division races per season until something is done.

Mike Trout Might Be the Best Player Ever
The idea that Mike Trout might be one of the best who ever lived entered the national conversation a few years ago, but he might actually end up being the best player ever. Eight years into his career and only a few months after turning 27, he has 240 home runs, a .307/.416/.573 slash line, 189 stolen bases, and 64.7 fWAR. His 172 career wRC+ ranks sixth all time, behind only Babe Ruth (197), Ted Williams (188), Lou Gehrig (173), Rogers Hornsby (173), and Barry Bonds (173). The 64.7 fWAR are already 89th on the all time list, despite every single player ahead of him on the list having played more than 500 more games than him. He's already ahead of plenty of Hall of Famers, from Yogi Berra to Duke Snider to Ernie Banks to Willie Stargell, and he's likely to catch Tony Gwynn and Craig Biggio within the first month of 2019. And he just turned 27 on August 7th.

Clayton Kershaw is No Longer the Best Pitcher in Baseball
It's been a great run for Clayton Kershaw. From 2011-2017, his age 23-29 seasons, he went 118-41 with a 2.10 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 1623/283 strikeout to walk ratio over 1452 innings, good for a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate. By those numbers the average season saw him go 17-6 with a 2.10 ERA and a 232/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 207.1 innings. Kershaw's 47.4 pitching fWAR led the majors by a massive margin, 11.2 ahead of second place Max Scherzer's 36.2. That's not only a great run, but one of the best in history. However, there is reason to believe that that run is coming to an end. Kershaw turns 31 in March, and while that's not old, he figures to be past his prime. This past season, he went 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 155 and walking 29 in 161.1 innings. Those numbers are great, yes, but not Kershaw great. His fastball velocity has been steadily declining from 94.2 MPH in 2015 to 93.6, 92.8, and 90.8 in the last three seasons as he has battled back problems. That's not to say Kershaw isn't still good; he's one of the best in the game and I expect him to contend for the NL Cy Young Award next season, but he's not *the best* anymore.

Something is Happening in Oakland
The A's went 97-65 in 2018 and captured the second AL Wild Card, though based on that record they deserved better. What people might not realize, though, is that they are here to stay. Their entire core outside of Jed Lowrie and second half addition Mike Fiers was young, with guys like Khris Davis (48 HR, .247/.326/.549), Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508), Matt Olson (29 HR, .247/.335/.453), and Lowrie (23 HR, .267/.353/.448) leading the offense and Sean Manaea (12-9, 3.59 ERA), Fiers (5-2, 3.74 ERA post trade), Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.05 ERA), Blake Treinen (0.78 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), and Lou Trivino (2.92 ERA, 82/31 K/BB) leading the pitching staff. Out of that entire list, only Lowrie is a free agent, though Manaea might not pitch at all in 2019 due to shoulder surgery. However, on the flip side, Jharel Cotton will be back from Tommy John surgery. There are also prospects on the horizon, with Jesus Luzardo, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Ramon Laureano looking to break through sooner rather than later. Nobody saw it coming, but this team is very good and it's built to last. They're not going anywhere in 2019.

New Faces Everywhere
In 2017, we saw the rise of Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and others to stardom, and this year, the youth movement continued. Mookie Betts, after a relative down year in 2017 (.264/.344/.459), bounced back with a huge 2018 that saw him slash .346/.438/.640 with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases, and he's likely to take home the AL MVP Award. Now with 28.7 fWAR over the past three seasons, he has elevated himself to superstar levels. Alex Bregman had a huge season, building on his .284/.352/.475 2017 season by slashing .286/.394/.532 with 31 home runs and 51 doubles, surprising many by being the best hitter in a formidable Houston lineup. The A's have a of young defensive wiz that can also swing the bat in Matt Chapman (24 HR, .278/.356/.508). On the mound, quite a few new starting pitchers turned into aces. Aaron Nola posted a 2.37 ERA and looks poised to lead the Phillies into contention, while Blake Snell dropped his ERA below 2.00. Kyle Freeland even got in on the fun from Colorado, becoming the first Rockies' starter since Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010 to drop his ERA below 3.00. Josh Hader was an unstoppable force in the Milwaukee bullpen, striking out 143 batters in just 81.1 innings (but not without dodging controversy). Oh, and out of Betts, Bregman, Chapman, Nola, Snell, Freeland, and Hader, Betts is the oldest and even he will play the entire 2019 season at just 26 years old.
Don't Forget the Rookies
This year's rookie class was among the best we've ever seen. Shohei Ohtani fulfilled the lofty expectations placed on him and while he won't get to pitch in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he has already elevated himself to stardom with both his bat and his arm. Teenager Juan Soto took the baseball world by storm by sprinting up from Class A to the majors in just one month, then slashed .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs against much, much older competition. Ronald Acuna, less than a year older than Soto, was equally impressive by slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases for the Braves. Walker Buehler was incredible in Los Angeles, posting a 2.62 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 151/37 strikeout to walk ratio before dominating in the postseason. Miguel Andujar stepped up when the Yankees needed him, slashing .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, while his teammate, Gleyber Torres, slashed .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs. Harrison Bader showed a decent bat (12 HR, .264/.334/.422) but immediately established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Even in that long paragraph of names, I left out guys like Joey Wendle, Ryan Yarbrough, Jack Flaherty, Lou Trivino, Brian Anderson, Jaime Barria, Brad Keller, and Joey Lucchesi.

And Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming in April

2018 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: Rookies, Managers, and Relievers

These awards are based on how I would assign them, not on how I believe they will end up. MVP's and Cy Young's were posted previously.

American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.

Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only  Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.

Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.

Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)

National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.

Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.

Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.

Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)

American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.

Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.

Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.

Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)

National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.

Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.

Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.

Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)

American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.

Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).

Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)

National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.

Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.

Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)

One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: NL

The AL version of this list was recently published. Here is one guy to watch on each team whose name could be much more familiar by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season given in parentheses.

Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna (Age 20)
High A/AA/AAA: 21 HR, .325/.374/.522, 44 SB, 155 wRC+ in 139 games
There are more than a few players primed for breakouts on the Braves, but perhaps none has a higher ceiling for 2017 than Ronald Acuna, the 20 year old sensation who tore up the three highest minor league levels as a teenager last season. Somehow, he got better with each promotion, and between High Class A Florida (28 games), AA Mississippi (57 games), and AAA Gwinnett (54 games), he crushed 21 home runs, stole 44 bases, and slashed .325/.374/.522 with 144 strikeouts to 43 walks in a total of 139 games. The K/BB ratio might not seem to be the prettiest, but his strikeout rate dropped with each level (from 31.7% in High A to 23% in AA to 19.8% in AAA) and his walk rate remained fairly static despite the increase in competition (6.3% to 7.4% to 7%). He'll likely begin 2018 with Gwinnett again to finish ironing out some holes in his approach, but he'll probably be up by the end of April and from there, the sky is the limit. Ender Inciarte is holding down center field, but Lane Adams is far from entrenched in left field and 34 year old Nick Markakis shouldn't be too much of a road block in right. Long story short, when he's ready, which should be very soon if not now, there will be a spot for him to play every day. With his combination of seemingly every tool, he's a star in the making. With that, don't overlook the guys listed below as others; I listed an extra one just because there are so many.
Others: 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Max Fried

Miami Marlins: OF Lewis Brinson (Age 24)
MLB: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+ in 21 games
AAA: 13 HR, .331/.400/.562, 11 SB, 146 wRC+ in 76 games
Perhaps the most exciting player to come to Miami in this offseason's complete tear-down was outfielder Lewis Brinson, a South Florida native bursting with tools. He hits and he hits it hard, and with his speed and defense, he's a complete player. While it is true that AAA Colorado Springs plays in a hitters' park in a generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Brinson's .331/.400/.562 slash line is still very impressive and at the very least proves he's major league ready. Though his .106/.236/.277 slash line with the Brewers was a bit less inspiring, he did draw seven walks for a very respectable 12.7% rate, proving he wasn't completely overmatched. Additionally, three of his five hits went for extra bases (including two home runs), so his power transferred up in the small sample as well. With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Ichiro Suzuki all gone from last year's outfield, the stage is set for him to try his hand as a starter in the Marlins' outfield.
Others: 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra

New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age 22)
MLB: 4 HR, .248/.271/.394, 7 SB, 74 wRC+ in 46 games
AAA: 7 HR, .328/.367/.466, 19 SB, 116 wRC+ in 94 games
All projection and no track record as recently as the start of the 2016 season, Amed Rosario broke out by slashing .324/.374/.459 with 19 stolen bases between High Class A Port St. Lucie and AA Binghamton that year, then continued to mash with a .328/.367/.466 line and 19 more stolen bases at AAA Las Vegas in 2017. This performance earned a call-up for the 21 year old shortstop, who held his own by slashing .248/.271/.394 across 46 major league games. Rosario is a great defender who has proven bat to ball and running abilities, looking like a future leadoff man if he can learn to take a walk. Unfortunately, the latter may take some time, considering his horrendous 49/3 strikeout to walk ratio with the Mets this past season, though his 87/40 and 67/23 marks in the minors in 2016 and 2017, respectively, are much better. I don't think Rosario will be an instant star in New York, but 2018 could see him begin to build towards that goal.
Others: 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Seth Lugo

Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .214/.356/.300, 1 SB, 83 wRC+ in 23 games
AAA: 15 HR, .243/.351/.405, 5 SB, 114 wRC+ in 127 games
One of the most highly regarded Phillies prospects in recent memory, Crawford has seen his star fade just a little bit upon reaching AAA. In 87 games with Lehigh Valley in 2016, he slashed just .244/.328/.318, and he wasn't much better in the first half of 2017, slashing .211/.328/.330 in 76 games. However, he turned it around in the second half, slashing .287/.385/.513 in 51 games for the IronPigs and earning a call-up to Philadelphia in September. His bat was light in those 23 games (.214/.356/.300), but the second half turnaround was just what the Phillies wanted to see. Crawford should have an easier time adjusting to the majors than most minor leaguers because of his extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him to a solid 97/79 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA this year. Even after his promotion to the majors, he held a 22/16 ratio, showing he could spot major league fastballs and offspeeds, so now the only step left is for him to start punishing mistakes.
Others: RHP Nick Pivetta, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Ben Lively

Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age 20-21)
MLB: 0 HR, .250/.308/.458, 0 SB, 96 wRC+ in 13 games
High A/AA: 10 HR, .300/.382/.493, 27 SB, 147 wRC+ in 114 games
We round out the NL East with yet another high ceiling, athletic position player, and Victor Robles may end up being the best of them all. Robles, who doesn't turn 21 until May 19th, is currently the youngest player ever to suit up in the majors, and joins Ozzie Albies (January birthday) as one of only two MLB players born in the year 1997. Robles began the season at High Class A Potomac, but slashed .289/.377/.495 with 16 stolen bases in 77 games to force a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he kept on hitting to the tune of a .324/.394/.489 slash line and 11 stolen bases in 37 games. In the majors for the month of September, he put up a respectable .250/.308/.458 line over 13 games, showing that he is at least ready for a shot. He'll likely start with some seasoning in AAA, but once he comes up, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. For starters, he's blazing fast and has a cannon arm, making him a potential Gold Glove defender in center field, and he has great plate discipline for such a young player. Combine that with his athleticism and natural feel for the barrel, and he can post high on-base percentages and be a perfect leadoff man. The only area where he doesn't excel is power, but he should generate average pop and with his strong, athletic build, could max out as an Andrew McCutchen-type player. On top of it all, he is considered to have a great head on his shoulders, and that will be invaluable when his chance in the big leagues comes, likely sooner rather than later.
Others: RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Erick Fedde, OF Andrew Stevenson

Chicago Cubs: RHP Eddie Butler (Age 27)
MLB: 4-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/28 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 13 games (11 starts)
AAA: 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 30/12 K/BB, 45.2 IP in 8 starts
It's tough to pinpoint any real breakout candidate on the Cubs, considering pretty much every position is set with veterans or otherwise proven players. That said, if any of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Tyler Chatwood gets hurt, Eddie Butler could be the guy who steps up and makes an impact. Butler pushed himself into the national prospect conversation by dominating the mid-minor leagues in 2013 (9-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/52 K/BB across three levels), but the former Radford Highlander never quite figured it out with the Rockies, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in parts of three seasons with them. Traded to the Cubs in 2017, he finally found his footing in the majors, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 13 games (11 starts), and he could springboard off of that in 2018 if given the opportunity (though fellow starters Mike Montgomery and Jen-Ho Tseng will also gun for a spot in the case of an injury).
Others: OF Albert Almora, C Victor Caratini, RHP Jen-Ho Tseng

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo (Age 25)
MLB: 3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 98/32 K/BB, 89.1 IP in 15 starts
AA: 4-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 14 starts
Traded as a part of the Casey McGehee deal of 2014, the Andrew Cashner deal of 2016, and the Dan Straily deal of 2017, Luis Castillo is making the Giants, Padres, Marlins regret their decisions. He dominated AA in 2017 (2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB with Pensacola) before a call-up to Cincinnati, where he continued to mow down hitters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/32 strikeout to walk ratio. Interestingly, his strikeout rate actually went up after his promotion to the majors, having struck out 25.6% of AA hitters and 27.3% of major league hitters. He likely won't best his half-season rate stats from 2017, but those numbers held over a full season are borderline ace level. If his 2017 stats were for real, which I believe they may have been, then Castillo is the next face of the Reds rotation and that could begin in 2018.
Others: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Sal Romano, RHP Robert Stephenson

Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Josh Hader (Age 24)
MLB: 2-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 68/22 K/BB, 47.2 IP in 35 games
AAA: 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 51/31 K/BB, 52 IP in 12 starts
Drafted in the 19th round out of a Maryland high school way back in 2012, Josh Hader slowly climbed the minor league ladder while dominating his competition, going 23-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 101 games (69 starts) up through his promotion to AAA Colorado Springs in 2016, striking out 471 and walking 171 in 420.1 innings. However, he struggled to adjust to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, and in 26 starts since that promotion, he is 4-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Brewers decided to give him a change of scenery by not only promoting him to the majors, but shifting him to the bullpen as well. It worked, as Hader dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 68/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.2 innings. Manager Craig Counsell has said that he will begin 2018 in the bullpen again, but a move to the rotation is certainly possible and Hader has the stuff to do it. In a best case scenario, Hader could become a mid-rotation force or better for the Brewers in the near future, and even if that isn't the case, he has proven he is very effective as a power reliever.
Others: RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Corbin Burnes

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age 24)
MLB: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 56/44 K/BB, 62 IP in 15 games (13 starts)
AAA: 9-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/32 K/BB, 93.1 IP in 15 starts
Tyler Glasnow is about as enigmatic as it gets. The 6'8" right hander has absolutely obliterated minor league hitting to the tune of a 45-21 record, a 2.02 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 785/278 strikeout to walk ratio in 593.1 innings. This utter domination includes AAA, where he is a career 19-6 pitcher with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 321/116 strikeout to walk ratio over 244.1 innings. The trouble, however, has been translating that success just one more step to the majors. Over 22 major league outings over the past two seasons (including 17 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, striking out 80 and walking 57 in 85.1 innings. He still has that blazing mid to upper 90's fastball, but his command has been non-existent and hitters have been able to punish his mistakes. While he struck out 38.5% of those he faced in AAA this year, that number stood at just 18.4% in the majors, while his walk rate jumped from 8.8% to 14.4%. Glasnow does have an opportunity to jump back into the rotation if one of Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, or Trevor Williams gets hurt or becomes ineffective, and if he can put it together in 2018, he could finally become the rotation force the Pirates have envisioned for years. However, the Pirates have stated that they are open to using him in the bullpen this year, where his fastball could play up into the upper 90's and he could focus his energy. Either way, this could be the year Glasnow finds success, even if it's not the ace-level success some envisioned when he was climbing through the minors.
Others: 3B Colin Moran, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Austin Meadows

St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas (Age 29)
NPB (Japan): 14-8, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187/23 K/BB, 188 IP in 27 starts
Last year, Eric Thames made a triumphant return from three years in South Korea to blast 31 home runs for the Brewers. This year, their NL Central rivals are hoping to catch the same lightning in a bottle, this time from Japan. Miles Mikolas (Mikolas pronounced like Mike) was last season in the U.S. going 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, so he headed to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants. Apparently, something clicked for him over there, and in three seasons in the NPB, Mikolas went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 378/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.2 innings in 62 starts. His strikeout rate went up each year, from 14.9% in 2014, his final year in the MLB to 19.2% in his first year in Japan in 2015, to 22% in 2016, and finally up to 25.1% in 2017. Meanwhile, he posted a career-low 3.1% walk rate this year, and the Cardinals liked his performance enough to give him a two year, $15.5 million deal. He apparently upped his velocity during his time in Japan while refining his secondary pitches, all while maintaining and even improving the stellar command he had in the states. Eric Thames showed us that it isn't impossible for American returnees from Asia to make an impact right away, and Mikolas will look to follow in his footsteps.
Others: RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Alex Reyes

Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Taylor Clarke (24-25)
AA/AAA: 12-9, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138/52 K/BB, 145 IP in 27 starts
There aren't many openings in the Arizona lineup for new guys to break in, and the rotation looks set with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley. However, one is bound to get hurt, and Braden Shipley and Taylor Clarke look like frontrunners to take that spot if it comes up. Originally drafted in the third round out of the College of Charleston as a senior in 2015, Clarke pitched very well in 2015 and 2016 and began 2017 with AA Jackson, where he put up a very strong 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 107/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Reno not long after his 22nd birthday, Clarke finally found a challenge in the hitter-friendly environment, going 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over six starts, striking out 31 and walking 13 in 33.2 innings. Still, his strikeout rate remained stable by dropping just two points from 23.5% to 21.5%, as did his walk rate by rising from 8.6% to 9%. A fly ball pitcher, he was hurt by the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, and while Arizona has some pretty thin air as well, they just introduced a humidor to try to mitigate that effect. The humidor could be a huge help for Clarke, and if given the chance, the Ashburn, Virginia native could make an impact on the NL West pennant race.
Others: RHP Braden Shipley, 2B Ketel Marte, RHP Jimmie Sherfy

Colorado Rockies: 1B Ryan McMahon (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .158/.333/.211, 0 SB, 46 wRC+ in 17 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .355/.403/.583, 11 SB, 157 wRC+ in 119 games
A year ago, Ryan McMahon was in a very different position, coming off a season in which he struggled for the first time in his career (12 HR, .242/.325/.399 in 133 games at AA), and he was set to repeat the level to start his 2017 season. However, this time around, he proved 2016 to be a fluke and slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games, forcing a promotion to AAA Albuquerque. There, in the hitter-friendly environment, he moved himself from "good" to "elite" in the prospect rankings, slashing .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs in 70 games, finding himself in the majors by August. While he struggled against major league pitching (.158/.333/.211), he did manage five walks against five strikeouts, and if he can get just a bit more loft on the ball (he's primarily a ground ball hitter), his power could take off at Coors Field. He has a clear path to starting at first base this season, so watch for McMahon's bat in the thin air.
Others: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Jeff Hoffman, C Tom Murphy

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler (Age 23-24)
MLB: 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB, 9.1 IP in 8 games
High A/AA/AAA: 3-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/31 K/BB, 88.2 IP in 28 games (19 starts)
The Dodgers seemingly always have breakout guys who jump into the national conversation early on. Last year, it was Cody Bellinger. The year before, it was Corey Seager. Before that, you had guys like Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner turning into stars. This year, there are two main candidates to be the next guy, and I'm going to write up Walker Buehler over Alex Verdugo. Buehler was drafted in the first round, 24th overall, as part of a standout Vanderbilt class in 2015, following Dansby Swanson (1st) and Carson Fulmer (8th). However, it would be over a year before Buehler stepped foot on a minor league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he didn't really get his career going until 2017. However, he dominated High Class A in five starts (1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB) and found himself in AA, where he continued to pitch well (3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64/15 K/BB). He finally found a challenge with AAA Oklahoma City, putting up a respectable 4.63 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio in the hitter-friendly environment. Promoted to the majors for eight relief appearances, he was knocked around a bit (7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), but he did strike out 27.3% of those he faced (12 in 9.1 innings). The Dodger rotation looks to consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, but if one gets injured (and with Hill and Ryu in there, one probably will), Buehler could be the first to hear his name called. If he can ring in his command just a little, his stuff is nasty enough (upper 90's fastball, plus curveball), he could give the Dodgers a third straight NL Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Others: OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Dennis Santana

San Diego Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (Age 25-26)
MLB: 7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139/54 K/BB, 114.1 IP in 21 starts
AAA: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB, 39 IP in 8 starts
Dinelson Lamet didn't make his minor league debut until he was 22, which is old for a Dominican prospect, but he rose quickly once he got on the professional mound. In full season ball by 2015, he jumped three levels in 2016 and began 2017 at AAA El Paso in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, nobody seemed to tell Lamet that the environment was supposed to be difficult, and after eight solid starts (3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB), he was promoted to the majors. Making 21 starts for the Padres, he struggled a bit with command (11.1% walk rate), but hitters had a tough time connecting with his nasty stuff and he struck out 28.7% of those he faced, or 139 in 114.1 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate did rise throughout the year, but if he can keep his stuff in check, it's nasty enough to make him a mid-rotation starter and to build on the 4.57 ERA from this year. The Padres are still rebuilding, so as long as he stays healthy, he should have no problem earning a spot in the rotation and could thrive.
Others: RHP Luis Perdomo, OF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Kaz Makita

San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton (Age 27)
MLB: 4-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 51/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP in 13 games (10 starts)
AAA: 4-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 71/22 K/BB, 79.1 IP in 15 starts
The Giants are doing their best to go worst to first this year, adding numerous bats including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. However, the pitching staff has remained mostly untouched, especially in the starting department, leaving two unproven guys to take the #4 and #5 spots. Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are frontrunners, but Stratton has a particularly strong case and could be in for a big season. Picked 20th overall out of Mississippi State in 2012, he developed slowly didn't get his first extended look in the majors until 2017, his age-26 season. In it, he was successful, going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 13 games (10 starts), but there is certainly room for improvement. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit high, but his walk rate trended down slightly as the season moved on. With a full season in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Stratton could finally fulfill his mid-rotation potential.
Others: RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Andrew Suarez, 2B Miguel Gomez

Minor League Awards

With the minor league season coming to a close, it's time to hand out the awards for the best hitters and pitchers. Please note that this is not based on prospect status, but on performance. Performance in different levels will be weighed roughly the same to allow the awards to expand outside of just AA and AAA, though players from higher levels will get a closer look. Some general minor league information: the levels are, from highest to lowest, AAA, AA, High A, Class A, Short Season A, Rookie, and complex (GCL, AZL, DSL, VSL). The California League (one of three leagues in High A) is extremely hitter-friendly and gives a Coors Field-type effect to players' stats, while the Pacific Coast League (one of two leagues in AAA) and Pioneer League (one of two Rookie leagues) are also very hitter-friendly. The Florida State League (one of three leagues in High A) is very pitcher-friendly, and the Texas League (one of three leagues in AA) and Midwest League (one of two leagues in Class A) also lean pitcher-friendly. Most others are relatively neutral. I'll also reference my 2015, 2016, and 2017 draft rankings a fair amount. The way I weight them is like this: 2015 was just a learning year, one where I made my first list through trial with no error yet to learn from. 2016 was my warm-up year, the one where I had been through a year of rankings but still didn't have much error to learn from. 2017 was my first real year.

Minor League Hitter of the Year

Winner: Bo Bichette (Blue Jays Class A and High A): 14 HR, 74 RBI, .362 AVG, 22 SB, 181 wRC+

If you want to see some crazy numbers, look no further than Blue Jays prospect Bo Bichette. One of two Jays' teenagers/sons of MLB stars to post huge breakout seasons (see Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), the son of Dante Bichette has blown every expectation out of the water. Drafted in the second round (66th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2016, I liked his swing but had just enough doubt in his ability to tone it down that I ranked him 77th. As it turns out, he'd be a top ten or even top five pick if the draft happened again. Bichette tore up the complex-level Gulf Coast League immediately following his signing in 2016 (.427/.451/.732 in 22 games) and picked up right where he left off in 2017. Less than a year after graduating high school, the 19 year old was assigned to Class A Lansing in the Midwest League, where he absolutely ripped the cover off the ball, slashing .384/.448/.623 with 32 doubles, three triples, and ten home runs in 70 games, adding in 12 stolen bases in 15 tries to boot. This added up to a ridiculous .476 wOBA and a 201 wRC+, forcing the Jays to move their budding star to High Class A Dunedin in the tough Florida State League. There, he turned a bit more human (until you remember he's still 19 years old), slashing .323/.379/.463 with nine doubles, a triple, four home runs, and ten stolen bases in 40 games. Combined, he finished his season slashing .362/.423/.565 with 41 doubles, four triples, and 14 home runs, giving him 59 extra base hits in 110 games to go along with 22 stolen bases and a very high OBP. If he can begin to turn those doubles into home runs, Bichette has a very good chance to be an All Star at the next level.

Runner-Up: Austin Hays (Orioles High A and AA): 32 HR, 95 RBI, .329 AVG, 5 SB, 164 wRC+

It may just be Hays' first full pro season, but he's already made a mockery out of three different levels. After being drafted in the third round (91st overall) out of Jacksonville University in 2016, he slashed .336/.386/.514 with four home runs in a 38 game debut in the New York-Penn League. To start the season, he was handed an aggressive assignment to High Class A Frederick, where he did nothing but rake. Over 64 games, he slashed .328/.364/.592 with 16 home runs, posting a .422 wOBA and a 167 wRC+ for the Keys. Promoted to AA Bowie two weeks before his 22nd birthday and barely a year after he was drafted, he put up virtually the same numbers, slashing .330/.367/.594 with 16 home runs, a .418 wOBA, and a 161 wRC+ over 64 games. That's a combined 32 home runs and an OPS of .958 this season for the Daytona Beach native. As I was writing this paragraph, the Orioles called him up to the major leagues, where he could be a significant piece in the Baltimore lineup in time. I ranked him 117th in my 2016 rankings, 26 spots below where the Orioles took him, and I admittedly overlooked his offensive capability. I noted his quick swing and his knack for making contact, but I was worried about his balance and power projection and those now seem like they won't be issues. Hays' one spot for improvement offensively this year is in his patience, as he walked in just 4.4% of his plate appearances. Going forward, that will be important, and his lack of OBP skills could turn him into a Yulieski Gurriel type hitter at the next level.

Honorable Mention: Ronald Acuna (Braves High A, AA, and AAA): 21 HR, 82 RBI, .325 AVG, 44 SB, 155 wRC+

Acuna is one of this year's biggest breakout stars, and his huge season has put him at or near the top of every updated prospect list out there. He was profiled a few weeks ago in my Minor League Watch, and with good reason. The 19 year old has played at three levels this year and has actually improved at each stop. He slashed .287/.336/.478 (.370 wOBA, 135 wRC+) in 28 games at High Class A Florida in the tough Florida State League, then slashed .326/.374/.520 (.404 wOBA, 159 wRC+) in 57 games at AA Mississippi, followed by a .344/.393/.548 line (.413 wOBA, 162 wRC+) in 54 games at AAA Gwinnett. He's getting better and better with each promotion, and the best part is that he's still a teenager. Even his strikeout rate dropped from 31.7% at High A to 23% at AA and 19.8% at AAA, while his walk rates have remained mostly steady (6.3%, 7.4%, 7.0%). He's probably a bit too raw to play in the majors today, as he needs to continue to make progress on his approach, but every arrow points towards "future superstar" for Acuna. I haven't even mentioned that he stole 44 bases this year, albeit while being caught 20 times.

Others: Rhys Hoskins (PHI AAA: 29 HR, 91 RBI, .284 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+), Ryan McMahon (COL AA and AAA, 20 HR, 88 RBI, .355 AVG, 11 SB, 157 wRC+), Jeremy Barfield (BOS AA and AAA, 28 HR, 76 RBI, .293 AVG, 1 SB, 161 wRC+), Nick Senzel (CIN High A and AA, 14 HR, 65 RBI, .321 AVG, 14 SB, 164 wRC+)

Even when you don't include Rhys Hoskins' incredible first month in the majors, he was having a special season, slashing .284/.385/.581 with 29 home runs over 115 games at AAA Lehigh Valley. Those look like pretty good numbers on the surface, but when you adjust for the fact that the International League tends to lean a tad pitcher-friendly, you get an excellent 166 wRC+, better than both Hays (164) and Acuna (155). Combine his 26 MLB games and the man has 41 home runs with a .291/.395/.614 line over 141 games. Ryan McMahon slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games at AA Hartford before a promotion to AAA Albuquerque, where he caught fire in the hitter-friendly environment. In 70 games, the 22 year old slashed .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs and 23 doubles, earning a promotion to the major leagues for the Rockies. Jeremy Barfield spent most of 2017 with AA Portland, where he slashed .288/.359/.584 with 27 home runs in the pitcher-friendly environment. He got a brief, three game promotion to AAA Pawtucket, where he cracked five hits, including a home run, in eleven at bats while walking four times in the series against Rochester. Lastly, Nick Senzel was picked second overall by the Reds in 2016 out of the University of Tennessee, and so far, he's lived up to the billing. Starting the season at High Class A Daytona in the Florida State League, he slashed .305/.371/.476 with four home runs and 26 doubles in 62 games. Promoted to AA Pensacola, he caught fire, slashing .340/.413/.560 with ten home runs over 57 games, and if it weren't for an injury at the end of the season, he might have earned a call-up to the big club in September.

Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: Jon Duplantier (ARI Class A and High A): 12-3, 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 165/42 K/BB

After overlooking Austin Hays and being conservative with Bo Bichette, I had better luck with the pitchers in my 2016 rankings. Jon Duplantier, then with Rice University, ranked 45th in my rankings before the 2016 draft due to his nasty stuff, but he lasted until pick 89 (3rd round) due to shoulder concerns. Turns out my optimism paid off, as Duplantier has absolutely dominated this season. Starting off at Class A Kane County, he completely overmatched his opponents, going 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, striking out 78 and walking just 15 in 72.2 innings for the Cougars. Promoted to High Class A Visalia in the extremely hitter-friendly California League, he seemingly forgot that he was in a hitters' paradise and went 6-2 with a 1.56 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, this time striking out 87 and walking 27 in 63.1 innings. Combined, that's a 1.39 ERA and a very strong 34.1 strikeout percentage. In his 25 games, all but one of which lasted at least 5 innings, he never allowed more than three earned runs in any start and allowed either zero or one earned run in 19 of the 25. I noted before the 2016 draft that health aside, Duplantier's ticket to a big league rotation would be improving his command, and it looks like he has made progress there. Total batters faced/walk percentage data isn't available for Duplantier's time at Rice, but we can look at the slightly inferior walks per nine innings. In his junior year at Rice in 2016, he walked 3.81 per nine, but that fell to 1.86 at Class A this year. It jumped back up to 3.84 at High A, but that's in a very hitter-friendly environment following a promotion so we can give him the benefit of the doubt. He still has work to do on his command, but he has become one of the lone bright spots in a very barren Diamondbacks farm system.

Runner-Up: Corbin Burnes (MIL High A and AA): 8-3, 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/36 K/BB

Two pitchers, two wins for my 2016 draft rankings. I ranked the then-St. Mary's pitcher 48th due to his athleticism, velocity, and promising offspeed stuff, but industry concerns about the future development of said offspeed pitches as well as questions about his durability dropped him to the fourth round, where the Brewers took him 111th. Apparently, those offspeed pitches came along like I predicted, as he absolutely dominated the mid minors this year. Starting off in High Class A Carolina, he couldn't have been any better, going 5-0 with a 1.05 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over ten starts, striking out 56 and walking 16 in 60 innings. Promoted to AA Biloxi, the 22 year old was still great, going 3-3 with a 2.10 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, this time striking out 84 and walking just 20 in 85.2 innings. On August 21st, in a AA game against Mobile (Angels AA), he tossed eight shutout innings on just two hits and two walks, striking out eight BayBears while throwing just 94 pitches. He should be in the big league rotation, assuming there is space, by next season. Combined with his 2.02 ERA in 2016, he now has a career 1.74 ERA through 181.1 minor league innings. 

Honorable Mention: Jack Flaherty (STL AA and AAA): 14-4, 2.18 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 147/35 K/BB

Flaherty, a 2014 first round pick out of the same California high school that produced Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, broke out this year in a big way. His first three pro seasons were pretty good (including a 2.84 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2015), but 2017 was something else entirely. Beginning his season at AA Springfield, he completely shut down Texas League competition by going 7-2 with a 1.42 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 62/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 63.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Memphis in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he became more human but still put up very dominant numbers considering the league production, going 7-2 (again) with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and an 85/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.1 innings. That earned him a promotion to the big club, and he made his MLB debut with the Cardinals on September 1st. Overall, 2017 could not have gone any better for the 6'4" righty, who added a few miles per hour to his fastball and sharpened his offspeed pitches this year. Throw in Luke Weaver (MLB), Alex Reyes (MLB/AAA), Zac Gallen (AAA), Dakota Hudson (AAA), and Austin Gomber (AA), and aside from the Braves, the Cardinals may have the best crop of advanced young pitching in baseball. 

Others: Tyler Mahle (CIN AA and AAA: 10-7, 2.06 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 138/30 K/BB), Rogelio Armenteros (HOU AA and AAA: 10-4, 2.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 146/38 K/BB), Joey Lucchesi (SD High A and AA: 11-7, 2.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 148/33 K/BB), Merandy Gonzalez (MIA Class A and High A: 13-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 103/26 K/BB)

Tyler Mahle had possibly the best single month of any pitcher this year, starting off his season 4-0 with a 0.55 ERA and a 0.52 WHIP over five April starts for AA Pensacola, including a perfect game against Mobile (Angels AA). Over 14 AA starts, he ultimately finished 7-3 with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an 87/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings before being promoted to AAA Louisville. There, he succeeded again, finishing 3-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over ten starts, striking out 51 and walking 13 in 59.1 innings before earning a call-up to the Reds at the end of August. Rogelio Armenteros broke out in a huge way in 2017, starting off by dominating the Texas League by going 2-3 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 14 games (10 starts), striking out 74 and walking 19 in 65.1 innings for AA Corpus Christi. Promoted to AAA Fresno in the tough Pacific Coast League, he was just as good, going 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 19 in 58.1 innings. On August 26th, the Cuban native shut down Tacoma (Mariners AAA) through eight innings, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out eight. Joey Lucchesi was drafted in the fourth round out of Southeast Missouri State in 2016, and began the year in the extremely hitter-friendly California League. No worries, as he went 6-4 with a 2.52 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 14 starts for High Class A Lake Elsinore, striking out 95 and walking just 19 in 78.2 innings. At AA San Antonio, he went 5-3 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 53 and walking 14 in 60.1 innings. Lastly, we have Merandy Gonzalez, who broke out this year with a huge season in the mid minors. Starting with Class A Columbia in the Mets organization, Gonzalez went 8-1 with a 1.55 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, striking out 65 and walking 13 in 69.2 innings. That performance earned him a call-up to High Class A Port St. Lucie, but he was traded to the Marlins at the deadline in the A.J. Ramos deal and finished out the season at High Class A Jupiter. Between Port St. Lucie and Jupiter, both in the Florida State League, he put up more excellent numbers, going 5-2 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, striking out 38 and walking 13 in 60.2 innings. The combined ERA of 1.66 tempted me to rank him higher, but I kept him seventh due to the pitcher-friendly nature of the Florida State League as well as his low strikeout rate in that league (15.4%).