Reviewing the Seattle Mariners Farm System

Dealin' Jerry DiPoto has taken a sledgehammer to this farm system, sending away prospects like Luiz Gohara, Mallex Smith, Nick Neidert, Ryan Yarbrough, Emilio Pagan, Andrew Moore, Tyler O'Neill, Boog Powell, Brayan Hernandez, Pablo Lopez, Thomas Burrows, and Juan Then just to name a few of the trades since the start of 2017. What's left is a very thin system with some high-ceiling talent at the top of the prospect charts and a smattering of relief prospects and recent draftees towards the bottom. The Mariners' player development isn't the greatest, which lowers the floors of many prospects, and with the team missing the playoffs again in 2018, the team isn't in a great spot. For now, the balance leans towards hitting, with many high ceiling hitters at the lower levels and quite a few utility prospects closer to the majors. Below are the system's bright spots.
Update: Mariners have since acquired Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, Dom Thompson-Williams, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, and Jake Fraley

Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A Clinton LumberKings*, Short Season Everett AquaSox, complex level AZL and DSL Mariners
*Class A Affiliate will move from Clinton, IA to Charleston, WV in 2019

The Headliner: OF Kyle Lewis
Kyle Lewis was drafted eleventh overall out of Mercer in 2016, though many people - myself included - saw this as a steal for the Mariners, who seemed to be getting a top ten or even top five talent. However, after a strong start to his pro career (.299/.385/.530 in 30 games at Short Season Everett in 2016), he blew out his knee in a home plate collision and it seems he is still feeling the effects. 2017 (.257/.329/.412) and 2018 (.244/.306/.405) have both been mediocre as he still doesn't appear fully healthy, and he turned 23 in July. Now, let's get to the good news. He is still extremely talented, and pre-injury he showed plus power, plus speed, a plus arm, and quick enough hands to hit for a high average. He still shows the quick hands and gets to his power occasionally (nine home runs and 26 doubles this year), and the lack of production really isn't his fault. His hands get through the zone so quickly that with his 6'4" frame, you can't give up on him yet. It's easy to project a healthy Lewis having an Eloy Jimenez-type breakout season in 2019, and if it all breaks right, I think he could hit 20-30 home runs per season in the majors with on-base percentages in the .350 range and good defense in the outfield.

Advanced Utility Prospects: 1B Evan White, OF Braden Bishop, 3B Joe Rizzo, SS Donnie Walton, OF Eric Filia, OF Chuck Taylor
While Kyle Lewis looks to be the next star in Seattle, the guys in this section of the list, save for White, don't project to be much more than bench assets. Fortunately for the Mariners, there are quite a few of them, meaning that one could end up exceeding expectations and contributing in a significant way. We'll start with Evan White, easily the second best position player prospect in the system. A high floor, low ceiling player when he was drafted 17th overall out of Kentucky in 2017, he has performed exactly to expectations, slashing .300/.371/.453 with eleven home runs and a 108/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games this year, 120 of which came at High A Modesto. As with any California League statistics, they must be taken with a grain of salt, but these pretty much tell the story: a high on-base percentage and enough power to make pitchers respect him. While the power might be a little light for a first baseman who is typically expected to provide the thump, he makes up for it with exceptional defense (not common among first basemen) and he could be shifted to the outfield if needed. Expect a productive bat that may not be able to serve in the middle of a lineup but one that could slot nicely as a #6 hitter. 25 year old outfielder Braden Bishop is already a fan favorite, and for good reason. He established a charity called 4MOM in honor of his mother, who was diagnosed with Alzheimers, and he is extremely active in his philanthropic endeavor. On the baseball side, he slashed .284/.361/.412 with eight home runs and a 68/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Arkansas this year, showing serviceability in all aspects of offense. His glove is considered excellent in the outfield, and because he has shown some competency at the plate, he should have little trouble reaching the majors. However, since he doesn't offer much power and he's only a marginally productive on-base threat, I think it's unlikely that he ends up a leadoff hitter, but he still could be a nice bottom of the order piece. Most likely, he's a productive fourth outfielder. 20 year old infielder Joe Rizzo has seen his bat stagnate as he has moved up through the minors, slashing .241/.303/.321 with four home runs and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio even at hitter-friendly Modesto, and it's looking like he'll need to make some adjustments ahead of the 2019 season if he wants to remain a notable prospect. His defense is so-so, but fortunately, time is on his side and he is universally noted for his work ethic, which could help him tap the considerable raw power I still believe he possesses. He just needs to get more consistent with his approach. 24 year old infielder Donnie Walton hit much better at Modesto (.309/.402/.433) than he did after his promotion to Arkansas (.236/.325/.327), showing a classic utility projection with his defense, on-base ability, and lack of power. His solid approach (71/51 K/BB) gives him a high floor, and he'll likely be in Seattle by the end of 2019. 26 year old outfielder Eric Filia is an interesting prospect in that he was nearly 24 when he was drafted out of UCLA in 2016, has been suspended twice for drugs of abuse, and that his plate discipline is excellent despite a so-so bat. At Arkansas this year, he slashed .274/.371/.348 with just a pair of home runs, but his 30/44 strikeout to walk ratio shows great patience (12.8% walk rate) as well as great bat to ball skills (8.7% strikeout rate). That bodes well for him to be able to translate his hitting up to the majors, though his lack of power and ability to hit the ball with much authority, combined with his age at this point, will likely render him to a fourth or fifth outfielder role. Lastly, 25 year old outfielder Chuck Taylor has a similar current on-field profile to Filia, slashing .297/.377/.376 with three home runs and a nice 79/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Arkansas. As with Filia, there's not much power, but he has shown an advanced approach at the upper levels which will help him get to the majors.

Starting Pitching Options: Logan Gilbert, Sam Carlson, Max Povse, Rob Whalen
There isn't much pitching talent in the system, and the group is even thinner when it comes to starting pitchers. In fact, with Michigan natives Anthony Misiewicz (5.24 ERA, 95/29 K/BB at mostly AA) and Oliver Jaskie (6.60 ERA, 77/49 K/BB at Class A) having rough seasons, the four listed in this section are the only ones with any real shot at being difference-making starting pitchers. The system's top pitching prospect, 2018 first rounder (14th overall) Logan Gilbert, has not thrown a professional pitch yet. He dominated at Stetson this year (11-2, 2.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 163/25 K/BB in 112 IP), showing an advanced four pitch arsenal which, when combined with his 6'6" frame, gives him a very high ceiling. However, his stuff was somewhat inconsistent in 2018, giving him some risk as a pitcher who might not be able to make his stuff translate upwards. We'll see if the Seattle development program makes an ace out of Gilbert or ends up with a relief arm. Sam Carlson, who was drafted in the second round (55th overall) out of a Minnesota high school in 2017 but who signed for first round money, is a long way off. The 19 year old underwent Tommy John surgery in July, meaning he probably won't pitch at all in 2019. When healthy, the 6'4" righty has ace-like stuff, throwing in the mid 90's and adding a wicked slider/changeup combination while controlling it all well for a teenager. Age is on his side, but we'll just have to play the wait and see game to find out if he becomes the next Felix Hernandez. 25 year old Max Povse came over in a trade from the Braves after the 2016 season, and while he seems to have AA down, he has struggled to perform in AAA. Between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, both of which were split between AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, he is 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 92/33 strikeout to walk ratio at Arkansas but 2-10 with an 8.17 ERA and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio at Tacoma. The 6'8" righty has average stuff that plays up due to his height, but it looks like AAA hitting has figured him out and he'll need his stuff to take one more step forward to be successful in the majors. He has a #4/#5 starter ceiling but if converted to relief, he can probably be a solid bullpen piece right now. 24 year old Rob Whalen has been a prospect for a long time, having been drafted in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He dominated the low minors but has struggled in the upper minors, mixing his average stuff and getting mediocre results. He posted a 5.16 ERA and a 92/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Tacoma this year, which isn't awful considering the context, and he really only needs to take one more step forward to be a useful #5 starter for the Mariners. More likely, he's a long reliever.

Bullpen Options: Matthew Festa, Wyatt Mills, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Nick Rumbelow
Relief prospects tend to pop out of nowhere, either as converted starters or guys who just found something that clicked. The Mariners don't have many of these either, but they don't have much of anything and this spot isn't necessarily a weak one for them. Matthew Festa offers the best combination of major league readiness and upside, coming in with a pretty good fastball/slider combination backed up by a curveball and a changeup. He posted a 2.76 ERA and a nice 67/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings at AA Arkansas this year, reaching the majors for a few appearances with mixed results. The 25 year old has a decent shot of breaking camp with the Mariners next year, and if he doesn't he should be one of the first to be called up from the minors to do some middle relief work. 23 year old Wyatt Mills pitched very well at High A Modesto (1.91 ERA, 49/9 K/BB in 42.1 IP) but struggled with his promotion to Arkansas (10.13 ERA, 10/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP). He's a sidearming righty with a true fastball/slider combo, working more from a place of deception than of dominance. He hasn't proven that he can hold up against higher level hitting, but his upside is higher than Festa's. 21 year old Joey Gerber was just drafted in the eighth round out of Illinois this past June, but he has already made a name for himself in this system by posting a 2.10 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 25.2 innings in the minors, split between the short season Northwest League and Class A Clinton. He uses a very good, very deceptive fastball/slider combination to get outs, but with that deception comes some command problems which ultimately have not hampered him yet in the minors. Look for Gerber to be among the first 2018 draftees for any team to reach the majors. 25 year old Art Warren is a converted starter who battled shoulder issues in 2018, using his full, four pitch arsenal to rack up strikeouts but also struggling with command. He may have to drop a pitch going forward (probably his changeup), but getting healthy and throwing strikes will be his most important goal because he is clearly talented enough to pitch in the major leagues. 27 year old Nick Rumbelow makes this list really because of his proximity to the majors. He actually pitched for the Yankees in the majors as far back as 2015, but with 33.1 career major league innings he is still technically a prospect. He has mastered the minor leagues and has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 71/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings in AA and AAA over the last two seasons, so all he really needs is an opportunity. At 27, he's probably not getting any better.

Distant Offensive Wild Cards: OF Josh Stowers, C Cal Raleigh, OF Julio Rodriguez, SS Juan Querecuto, SS Noelvi Marte, OF Luis Liberato, OF Anthony Jimenez
The reasons behind the Mariners' lack of advanced prospects comes from a combination of trades and poor player development, which is why you see all these names here at the bottom, where the Mariners actually have some depth. I'll start with the two 2018 draftees from major ACC programs. I saw second rounder (54th overall) Josh Stowers play for Louisville this year, and he's a wiry outfielder with tons of speed, patience, and a bat that was picking up as the spring progressed. He hit .260/.380/.410 with 20 stolen bases in the short season Northwest League this year, and if he can keep his strikeouts down and recognize pitches well, he could be a leadoff man in Seattle. Third rounder (90th overall) Cal Raleigh comes from Florida State and is the team's best catching prospect, and his .288/.367/.534 line in 38 games in the Northwest League was very encouraging. He has a lot to prove against more advanced pitching and with his defense behind the plate, but not a lot of catchers can swing it and he can. The next two players, Julio Rodriguez and Juan Querecuto, played all of 2018 at just 17 years old down in the Dominican Summer League. Rodriguez hit .315/.404/.525 with ten stolen bases and a 40/30 strikeout to walk ratio while showing arguably the best upside in the entire system, while Querecuto hit .243/.331/.329 with a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Rodriguez is an outfielder who obviously has a long, long way to go, but he's done everything asked of him so far and could be an impact player in Seattle four or five years down the road. Querecuto, meanwhile, is more known for his defense at shortstop and his bat will need to develop considerably if he wants to make it. The defense does give the bat plenty of time, though, and takes the pressure off of it as he moves up. Noelvi Marte, who just turned 17 a few weeks ago, might be the youngest player I write about in this series because of the Mariners' lack of depth. The shortstop has big time power that should grow as he adds loft, and as a shortstop the bat has time to develop. His defense doesn't quite match Querecuto's but the bat is better. Of course, he has not appeared in the minors yet so he is completely unproven. The last two guys in this section, 22 year old Luis Liberato and 23 year old Anthony Jimenez, don't exactly qualify as "distant" but fit better here than in the utility section due to their upside. Liberato slashed .250/.317/.424 at Modesto in the High California League this year, which is decent given the hitter-friendly nature of the league. He's got power, good plate discipline, and good defense, but he'll still have to take another step forward with the bat to be any kind of impact player. Jimenez, meanwhile, slashed .262/.314/.377 with six home runs and 13 stolen bases the same level, which is somewhat disappointing. His defense and speed buy his bat time, but having just turned 23, the bat will have to pick up sooner or later.

2018 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

First 5 rounds: Logan Gilbert (1-14), Josh Stowers (2-54), Cal Raleigh (3-90), Michael Plassmeyer (4-118), Nolan Hoffman (5-148)
Also notable: Joey Gerber (8-238), Keegan McGovern (9-268), Beau Branton (28-838)

It's tough to know what to make of the Mariners' draft this year, as they leaned heavily on college players (no high schoolers until 11th round) and also shied away from more traditional names, taking guys that many would consider to be reaches. Due to a busy semester, my rankings were a bit shallow this year and only went up to 110, but the M's only took one player on that list despite having four picks in the top 118. For now, the talent pool looks light; we'll see in a few years.

1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (my rank: 15)
If there is one pick that doesn't look like a reach right off the bat, it's their first round pick. Stetson righty Logan Gilbert has been one of the most feared pitchers in college baseball the past few years, finishing it off this year by going 11-2 with a 2.72 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 163/25 strikeout to walk ratio in 112 innings for the Hatters. As you might be able to guess from the stats, the projectable 6'6" righty has nasty stuff, headlined by a low to mid 90's fastball, both a slider and a curveball, and a useable changeup. He's a bit inconsistent, but when he's right, he shows four above average pitches right now, all from an easy delivery and a whippy right arm. He's your classic mid-first round college pitching prospect, one with upper rotation projectability but also with a high enough floor that the risk associated with high ceiling picks isn't really present with him. On top of that, he dominated the Cape Cod League last summer to the tune of a 1.72 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 31/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 31.1 innings, proving at the very least that his stuff plays up very well against college baseball's best. There was some time in the early to middle part of the season where he was looking more like a back end of the first round guy as his stuff backed up just a hair, but he fixed it and was looking as good as ever towards the end of the season. He also just turned 21 in May, and he signed right at slot for just under $3.9 million.

2-54: OF Josh Stowers (unranked)
Josh Stowers put up great numbers all around at Louisville this year, slashing .336/.477/.559 with nine home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 37/52 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games. From a performance perspective, there's really not much more you can ask. I saw him play back in April, when he was slashing a much less impressive .276/.435/.440; he got hot soon afterwards. Listed at 6'1" and 200 lbs, he's a very skinny guy who likely is physically maxed out, and he'll rely on speed and on-base ability to get to the majors. I don't really see his power playing well at SAFECO Field, but his plate discipline (12.8% strikeout rate, 17.9% walk rate) should help his hit tool play up and he should have no problem posting on-base percentages north of .350, and he should have enough power to the point where he can hit double digit home runs most years. At his ceiling, he looks like a very valuable player, but his floor is low enough that I question this pick in the second round. He signed for $1.1 million ($187,800 below slot) and is making the Mariners look good so far in a tiny sample, slashing .348/.464/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio in seven games in the Short-Season Northwest League. He's still riding that hot streak from the end of the college season, so we'll see how he fares as he builds up the sample size.

3-90: C Cal Raleigh (unranked)
Raleigh could go a number of ways. The Florida State catcher had a huge bounce back season this year, following up an awful sophomore season (.227/.330/.398, 9 HR, 39/39 K/BB) with a big junior year, slashing .326/.447/.583 with 13 home runs and a 43/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 62 games, mostly against quality ACC pitching. You see the combination of power and plate discipline, evidenced by an 18% walk rate, and from a switch-hitting catcher, that's even more valuable. Unfortunately, he's far from a lock to stick at catcher, as he's a below average defender with a good chance of moving to first base. On top of that, Raleigh's 15.1% strikeout rate was fairly reasonable, but he doesn't have the quickest swing and might struggle against higher velocities in the minors. Basically, he's neither a lock to hit or a lock to stick behind the plate, so it's a risky pick in the third round. The Mariners must be very confident in either his bat, glove, or both though to take him here. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting at $632,700.

4-118: LHP Michael Plassmeyer (unranked)
From Max Scherzer to Tanner Houck, there have been plenty of pitchers to come out of the University of Missouri with three quarter arm slots. Up next is Michael Plassmeyer, a 6'2" lefty with an upper 80's fastball and average stuff that plays up due to spin rates and command. In 14 starts for Mizzou this year, he went 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 103/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. Obviously, that strikeout rate will come down in pro ball against better hitters, but the combination of deception and command from the left side give him a chance to stick as a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he could bump his fastball into the low 90's as a reliever and become a long man. He signed for $425,000, which is $44,400 below slot. So far in the Northwest League, he has thrown three shutout innings over two starts, striking out six and walking none.

Others: 5th rounder Nolan Hoffman is a 6'4" right handed reliever out of Texas A&M who put up a 1.24 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 innings for the Aggies this year. A&M dropped him down to a sidearm/submarine slot this year, which has paid huge dividends, and he could move through the minors quickly. 8th rounder Joey Gerber is another reliever, putting up a good season at Illinois (3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 45/14 K/BB in 28.2 IP). He has a high effort delivery with a short arm path, throwing his fastball in the low to mid 90's and setting hitters down with a good slider. His command comes and goes, but that's not as important as a reliever compared to for starters. 9th rounder Keegan McGovern improved in each of his four years at Georgia, capping it off with a huge senior season where he slashed .319/.431/.644 with 18 home runs and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games. As a corner outfielder, his bat will have to carry him, but he proved he can crush SEC pitching and he could get to the majors fairly quickly if he makes enough contact. The Mariners already pushed him to Class A Clinton, where he already crushed two home runs in his first seven games against guys who have been in the minors a lot longer than he has. 28th rounder Beau Branton was barely noticeable on the Stanford roster for his first three years, and not just because he's 5'7". He slashed .220/.306/.256 as a freshman in 2015 then played just 29 games over the next two seasons, but he broke out for a .361/.440/.428 line, a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and his first collegiate home run in 2018. His power projection is non-existent, but he's a scrappy hitter who can get on base and play a few positions in the field. He likely never gets past AA, but it's a fun profile.