2021 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

The Braves played this draft about as straight up as you tend to see in the modern game, hovering around the slot values for most of their signings aside from a big over slot on AJ Smith-Shawver in the seventh round. First rounder Ryan Cusick obviously comes with the most upside, while second rounder Spencer Schwellenbach is the interesting two-way talent and third and fifth rounders Dylan Dodd and Luke Waddell figure to be the quick movers. There's sneaky upside in fourth and sixth rounders Cal Conley and Justyn-Henry Malloy, while Malloy, Waddell, and seventeenth rounder Tyler Tolve were all taken from ATL schools. I don't have any one pick that I loved in particular here, so I'll go with Malloy as my modest favorite.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-24: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest. My rank: #28.
Another year, another Massachusetts-born Wake Forest arm in the back of the first round. A year after taking Jared Shuster with the 25th overall pick, the Braves went back to Winston-Salem to bring Ryan Cusick down I-85 to the ATL. This is a really interesting arm who has a chance to do some really big things in Atlanta, but will take some work to get there. A product of the same Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer (via UConn) and 2020 Orioles second round pick Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick is a massive 6'6" righty that owns the fastest pitch ever recorded in college baseball (thrown to first overall pick Henry Davis no less). That fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and he holds that premium velocity deep into games, and the famous Henry Davis pitch came in at 101.7 on the Trackman gun. The Boston-area native also drops in a power curveball that looks like a true plus pitch at its best, and he can get some nice fade on his changeup as well. The problem for Cusick has been consistency, which would explain why his 4.24 ERA and 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings this year don't look as overpowering as you'd expect given the stuff described above. While he generally does a good job of filling up the strike zone, he's shown little feel to hit his spots within it and has innings every now and again where he can't find the zone at all. His release point has wandered on the fastball, while his curve can flatten out at times and the changeup plays below average despite its movement because he struggles to locate it. There is a ton of upside to unlock here, and the Braves do a good job with pitching in general, so you could be seeing a future ace. I feel like we say every drafted pitcher's stuff could "play up in the bullpen at worst," but Cusick could especially thrive in that role given his problems with consistency. He signed for $2.7 million, which was about $130,000 below slot value.

2-59: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach, Nebraska. My rank: #67.
The top two-way player in this draft (unless you count Bubba Chandler, who was primarily viewed as a pitcher), Spencer Schwellenbach will be a fun follow for that reason alone. He hit .284/.403/.459 with six home runs and a 44/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games this season, while also posting a 0.57 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings coming out of the Nebraska bullpen. Schwellenbach was announced as a pitcher and I'm not sure whether the Braves plan to let him hit, but regardless, I do prefer the arm. He actually didn't pitch until this spring due to elbow problems, but the stuff was electric when he finally got on the mound. The 6'1" righty ran his fastball up to 99 and sat in the mid 90's out of the bullpen, adding a potentially plus slider and an above average changeup as well. College relievers have a very poor track record, but Schwellenbach is obviously a very unique case as a full time position player who didn't actually pitch as a freshman or a sophomore. At the plate, the central Michigan native shows a compact swing from the right side that began producing more power in 2021. He's a decent defender at shortstop, but with that arm, he could be an asset at third base. I definitely see more upside with the power stuff on the mound, but he has a chance to be a utility infielder as well with a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages. As a bonus, he's young for the class and only turned 21 at the end of May. He signed for $1 million, which was about $190,000 below slot value.

3-96: LHP Dylan Dodd, Southeast Missouri State. Unranked.
The Braves opted to save a little more money here, grabbing fifth year senior Dylan Dodd out of Southeast Missouri State. The Kankakee JC transfer had the best year of his career in 2021, posting a 3.17 ERA and a 120/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings, and it wasn't as weak of a schedule as you might expect as it included starts against NCAA Tournament teams Arkansas, South Alabama, and Ole Miss (combined 4.50 ERA, 25/6 K/BB in 18 IP). Dodd's fastball sits in the low 90's, touching 95-96 at best and playing up due to high spin rates. He adds an average curve and slider that get swings and misses when he locates them, as well as an above average changeup. Everything, especially the changeup, plays up because of his above average command. The 6'3" lefty has a chance to stick in the rotation because of that command, in addition to his strong build, despite his otherwise average stuff. However, the fact that he turned 23 in June means the Braves might not be patient enough to let him work his way up in that role, and in the bullpen he could dump one of his breaking balls and focus on the changeup. The eastern Illinois native signed for $122,500, which was $482,300 below slot value.

4-126: SS Cal Conley, Texas Tech. My rank: #138.
This is a performance-based pick. Cal Conley has done nothing but hit since stepping into Texas Tech's lineup in 2020, slashing .339/.405/.600 with 18 home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games in his Red Raider career. He's a clearly above average hitter that makes a ton of hard contact, which in turn limits both his strikeouts (15.1% career rate) and his walks (8.9%). The raw power is only average, but he gets to all of it because the switch hitter consistently finds the barrel from both sides of the plate. If scouts were confident he could tap it consistently with wood bats, he would likely have gone in the top 100 picks, but there are some who believe his college home runs will turn into doubles off the wall in pro ball. Even in that case, he will likely hit a lot of them. The Cincinnati-area native is a high-energy player who manned shortstop for Texas Tech, where his range is a bit stretched, but he he'll be just fine at second base or third base. It's a utility floor with a chance to turn into a very productive regular if the power shows up like the Braves think it will. He's slightly old for the class, having turned 22 shortly after the draft, and he remains unsigned with a $451,800 slot value.

5-157: SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #200.
Atlanta went local with a Georgia Tech pick here, but Luke Waddell, like Conley, actually grew up in the Cincinnati area. You can critique the lack of upside, but nobody can deny the floor here as Waddell has been one of the ACC's most consistent hitters over the last four years, slashing .308/.407/.432 with twelve home runs and a 62/92 strikeout to walk ratio over 172 games in his Yellow Jacket career. He shows exceptional feel for the strike zone and struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances in his career (and just 5.8% in 2021), consistently putting the ball in play with a contact-oriented, line drive approach. Waddell also upped his stock a bit this year by hitting a career-high eight home runs, but he still projects for below average power in pro ball. Just 5'9", we're probably talking about a utility ceiling at best, but he's a professional hitter through and through who should be able to make the transition to pro ball very easily and move relatively quickly once there. Having turned 23 on the third day of the draft, he was one of the older players taken this year and is just a month younger than Dylan Dodd. He signed for $247,500, which was $85,800 below slot value.

6-187: 1B Justyn-Henry Malloy, Georgia Tech. Unranked.
Here the Braves picked up a second straight Yellow Jacket, but once again, he was attending Georgia Tech from out of state. Justyn Henry-Malloy is a northern New Jersey product who barely played in two years at Vanderbilt, then broke out with the bat this year upon transferring to Georgia Tech, slashing .308/.436/.558 with eleven home runs and a 40/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Malloy stands out for his patient approach and ability to keep his strikeouts down even when he works into deep counts, something that will undoubtedly be a boon in pro ball when he faces better competition. There is also above average raw power in the tank here, coming from a leveraged right handed swing powered by strong wrists that snap the barrel through the zone. A third baseman at Georgia Tech, he already faced skepticism over his ability to stick there and judging by the fact that the Braves drafted him as a first baseman, it doesn't look like they'll waste any time trying him out there. As a right handed hitting first baseman, the bat will have to carry him, but the puzzle pieces are in place for the 6'2" slugger to outplay his platoon bat projection and hit his way into the everyday lineup. He signed for $297,500, which was $40,100 above slot value.

7-217: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, Colleyville Heritage HS [TX]. Unranked.
After sticking more or less close to slot value over their first six picks, the Braves made their big over slot splash in the seventh round with high school right hander AJ Smith-Shawver. The Dallas-Fort Worth prep is actually relatively new to pitching, having instead spent most of his focus on playing quarterback and put no focus into pitching until this spring. When he came out pumping low 90's fastballs, his stock soared. The 6'3" righty can touch 95 at his best, but there looks to be much more in the tank as he adds weight to his extremely athletic frame, in addition to mechanical changes to improve the kinetic chain from his legs to his arm. There's also a curveball that's average for now, but it has excellent shape and could become a true plus pitch as he adds power and gets more feel for it. For now, a changeup has been more or less an afterthought for Smith-Shawver, something I don't think the Braves are too concerned with. There's a lot of development to be done here, from mechanical cleanup to pro conditioning to development of that changeup, but there's no questioning that this is a supremely talented arm who could take off in their system. Committed to Texas Tech with a chance to play football as well, he signed for $997,500, which was $795,900 above slot value and roughly equivalent to slot value for the 67th overall pick.

17-517: C Tyler Tolve, Kennesaw State. Unranked.
While Georgia Tech stars Justyn-Henry Malloy and Luke Waddell came from out of state, Kennesaw State catcher Tyler Tolve represents a true hometown pick having attended Sprayberry High School in Marietta, just ten miles north of Truist Park. He's hit nearly nonstop in three seasons for the Owls, slashing .313/.393/.444 with eight home runs and a 91/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, with seven of those home runs coming this season. There's not a ton of video or information available on him, but there's still a lot to like on the surface. He's a 6'2" left handed hitter who tapped his power better than ever in 2021, and he's faster than most catchers as well, picking up eight stolen bases this year. His athleticism will give him a chance to stick behind the plate and be more than a one-dimensional hitter, though he will need to cut down a bit on his swing and miss. His age is a bonus here, having only turned 21 shortly after the draft. He projects as a backup catcher in the long run and signed for $125,000.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten players to watch this college season

The 2021 college baseball season is about to kick off, which means our draft rankings are about to get thrown for a loop. Every year, some top prospects underperform, while others come from nowhere into the spotlight. Meanwhile, some players come into the season with very straightforward profiles. We know Kumar Rocker and Ty Madden are going to shove, and we know Adrian Del Castillo and Matt McLain are going to hit. Game to game, of course scouts will have an eye on everything, but for the most part they know what to expect. They want to make sure Rocker fills up the strike zone consistently, maybe hoping for a few more swings and misses on his fastball, you know, the normal stuff. We're hoping McLain can draw a few more walks, but again, we're not expecting to see anything unexpected.

This list is for ten players who have a much wider range of plausible outcomes in 2021. Whether that's due to injuries, inconsistency, or something else, all eyes will be on these players' every move as scouts try to determine just what kind of prospects they are. Of course, I have a couple dozen I'd like to include here, so this is far from as exhaustive as I'd like to be. If you're a college baseball fan, here are ten players to keep an extra close eye on as the season gets underway.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
You had to know this one was coming. A top 100 prospect coming out of Ashdown High School outside Texarkana in 2018, Jaden Hill battled injuries in 2019 and the pandemic shut him down in 2020, so he has just 21.2 collegiate innings to his name. That said, those 21.2 innings were absolutely electric. The 6'4" righty showed up on campus with a big fastball/changeup combination, with the former now reaching the upper 90's and the latter looking like a plus pitch. He's since improved a devastating slider that flashes plus-plus at times, and he's been developing a shorter cutter to give hitters yet another look. On top of it all, he's shown the ability to harness and command his stuff despite its rapid improvement and his lack of consistent innings. Pitch for pitch, Hill has some of the most electric stuff in the class, but of course we know scouts would be much more confident if he showed he could hold it over a full season. 2021 will be his chance to do so, and if his stuff is as loud in July as it is in February, Hill could very well go first overall. He's that good.

OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.
Arkansas is known for its high powered offenses, producing big bats like Brian Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, Dominic Fletcher, Heston Kjerstad, and Casey Martin in recent years, with Benintendi and Kjerstad going in the top ten picks. As of now, Franklin fits more in the back of the first round or early second, but he absolutely has the ability to propel himself into the Benintendi/Kjerstad range. After holding his own as an SEC freshman in 2019 (6 HR, .274/.362/.419), he was off to a hot start in 2020 (3 HR, .381/.467/.619) and will look to build on that in 2021. Though he stands just 5'11", the Kansas City native has plus raw power from the right side that he can tap with explosive hands. He needs to add some loft to his swing, but Franklin already hits screaming line drives that regularly find holes and carry out over the fence anyways. He's also a plus runner who will stick in center field, adding to his upside. The biggest thing scouts want to see from the young outfielder will be plate discipline, as he can get over aggressive and swing through or chase quality stuff at times. That's the biggest thing holding him back right now, but even small improvement in that area likely lands him in the first round. Take a big step forward in that regard, and Franklin has the tools to challenge Jud Fabian, Adrian Del Castillo, Alex Binelas, and Matt McLain as the top hitter in the college class.

OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt
2019-2020: 7 HR, .300/.349/.590, 4 SB, 24/4 K/BB in 37 games.
I see numerous parallels between Christian Franklin and Isaiah Thomas, though the latter finds himself perhaps half a round behind his SEC counterpart at this point due to less of a track record. Currently more of a second rounder, Thomas, not to be confused with the NBA all star of the same name, could rocket into the first round with a strong spring. His explosive right handed bat can send baseballs traveling out of the park at high speeds, and that plus raw power has played in his small sample of games so far. The South Florida native also shows above average speed and a strong arm in center field, all a product of a wiry, athletic 6'2" frame. The main drawback in Thomas' game at this point is an extremely aggressive approach, one that has limited him to just four walks in 37 games but to this point has not impacted his production. If he can even show moderately improved patience in 2021, he has the chance to fly well into the first round with the strong performance he's capable of. Thomas has a chance to be a legitimate five tool player.

RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 IP.
Ryan Cusick is one of my favorite arms in this class. A product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut that produced George Springer and Orioles 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick has been up and down during his time at Wake Forest. He was hittable as a freshman, then as a sophomore he struck out 41.7% of his opponents but also walked 17.5%, both extremely high numbers. His game is very inconsistent in all respects, but when he's on, he's on. At best, the 6'6" righty can touch 97-98 with his fastball and sit in the mid 90's for innings at a time, putting great ride on the ball that makes it nearly impossible to square up. He drops in a slider that flashes legitimate plus, as well as a developing changeup and curveball. However, the fastball velocity has been known to dip closer to 90 at times, while the slider regularly flattens out into a below average pitch. The Massachusetts native showed well below average command in the brief 2020 season, but it looked closer to average in a brilliant summer turn through the Coastal Plain League, so it's hard to know what to make of his strike throwing ability. For all of those reasons, scouts will be keeping a very close eye on each of Cusick's starts, watching how his velocity holds, how consistently he can snap off that slider, what his command looks like, and whether he can take a step forward with his changeup or curveball. There are many moving parts here, but if he can get the most out of his exceptional natural ability, we could be looking at a top ten pick later on. Or conversely, Cusick could push himself out of Day One contention entirely.

RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)
2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.
Here we get to one of this fall's fastest risers. Looking at his stat line above against a tame MAC schedule, Sam Bachman doesn't look special, but I assure you he is. The Indianapolis-area native previously worked with a low 90's fastball, but he's been bumping the mid 90's more often and reportedly hit triple digits in fall practice. That pitch plays up further because of his unique data, crouching down in his delivery and coming from a low three quarters angle to create an extremely low release point without actually having to go sidearm. From there, its high spin rates give it immense ride up in the zone, making it one of the best fastballs in the class. He also adds a short, cutter-like slider that plays above average and flashes plus, and his fading changeup gives him a third above average pitch. Bachman's command has been steadily improving from average to above average to even plus at times, maximizing his ability to tunnel his pitches off each other. His fall blew some evaluators away, so they'll want to see him maintain that uptick in stuff and command in the spring. If the stocky 6'1" righty can maintain even close to what showed, it's a legitimate first round projection.

RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State
2019-2020: 1-1, 3.70 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 43/22 K/BB in 31.2 IP.
Here's yet another really interesting one. Eric Cerantola is a huge, 6'5" Canadian right hander with some crazy data behind his stuff. On the surface, he does not look like a Day One prospect, with a scattered track record of 31.2 moderately successful innings. The Toronto-area native has a very slow, deliberate delivery with very inconsistent arm slots and command, giving the impression that he doesn't actually have much feel for his lanky limbs or delivery. However, this is one of the more talented right arms in the class. While working in the low 90's as a starter, Cerantola dialed his fastball up to 98 in fall practice and the pitch plays up with tough angle. He also adds a curveball that flashes true plus, a low to mid 80's hammer with ridiculously high spin rates, and that's the pitch that makes him so interesting. Add in what could be an above average changeup, and you have some of the best stuff in the class from a 6'5" righty. This spring, evaluators will be watching to see how he holds up under a full time starting role. That means both the stuff, including velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball, and command, the latter of which he has no track record of consistency with. If Cerantola can prove he can start, he suddenly becomes a first round candidate, though for now he fits better in the second.

OF Levi Usher, Louisville
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 G.
Levi Usher comes to Louisville from Kirkwood CC in Iowa, where he obliterated opposing pitching to the tune of a .409/.493/.538 line in 53 games. He continued just the same for the Cardinals, where he hit .411/.484/.571 in 16 games. However, two uninspiring runs through the Northwoods League in 2019 and 2020 (combined .261/.337/.373) temper excitement just a little, leaving evaluators ready to watch his 2021 at bats very closely. Usher has a broad base of above average tools, showing nice pure hitting ability, speed, and power. The hitting ability and speed (47 SB between Kirkwood and Louisville) have played up exceptionally well against weaker opponents, and there is enough strength packed into his 6' frame to project at least average power. To this point, he has shown an aggressive approach that limits his walks and causes some minor swing and miss concerns, so tightening that up will help scouts feel more comfortable his approach will hold up in pro ball. Additionally, the so-so performance in the Northwoods League raises slight concerns about how his power will play with wood bats, but unlike the approach questions, there's not much he can do about that one with metal bats at Louisville aside from just hit for more power. With his lack of track record at the Division I level and especially his lack of track record in conference play, Usher's 2021 could go a lot of different ways. Sort of like Kameron Misner a couple years ago, though Misner ended up slumping through SEC play.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.
Georgia pitching is on a strong draft run over the last three years. In 2019, it was Tony Locey (third round) and Tim Elliott (fourth round), and in 2020, it was Emerson Hancock (first round) and Cole Wilcox (third round). In 2021, Georgia could have two more, with Ryan Webb and draft-eligible sophomore Jonathan Cannon. Cannon worked in long relief on that deep Georgia pitching staff last year, and looked brilliant in five appearances. He's a lanky, 6'6" right hander with some of the louder stuff in the SEC, touching 96-97 with his fastball and adding an above average slider and a potentially plus changeup. Additionally, he flashes solid-average command, which is pretty impressive for a young lanky pitcher. The Atlanta-area native has all of the ingredients necessary to be an impact starting pitcher, but he has to put it together consistently in 2021 in order to go in the first round. It's one thing to flash three above average pitches and average command in 11.2 innings of long relief, but it's another to hold that over 5-6 innings a start for a full season. If he does, we have a first rounder. He won't turn 21 until after the draft, making him one of the younger college arms available, yet he's already looked fairly advanced in his small sample.

LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati
2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.
For the most part, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is regarded as the best college lefthander in the class, with Michigan's Steven Hajjar, Mississippi State's Christian MacLeod, and Texas' Pete Hansen making up the group right behind him. However, those who value pitch data would through another name into that ring, Cincinnati's Evan Shawver. The Cleveland-area native was not a big name recruit and struggled as a freshman (7.15 ERA, 69/48 K/BB), but he's quietly built up his draft stock in the time since then and put up a 1.59 ERA and a 35/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in 2020, including five hitless innings against Florida State. Shawver is an undersized lefty at a listed 6', 175 pounds, so he makes up for his lack of size in other ways. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can reach back for 95-97 and the spin rates on the pitch make it play up. He also drops in a potentially plus slider with late movement and an above average changeup, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. Shawver has refined his command considerably since making it to campus, now comfortably average, something that will be very important as his size brings relief questions. If the little lefty can hold his command and stuff over a full season in 2021, he has a chance to shed those relief questions and move into the first round range.

OF John Rhodes, Kentucky
2020: 1 HR, .426/.485/.672, 1 SB, 5/2 K/BB in 17 games.
Out of everyone on this list, John Rhodes is probably the one we know the least about. With pitchers, we can still watch them pitch in small samples and see their stuff, but hitting is reactive, and Rhodes hasn't put up a big enough sample for evaluators to get a strong feel for his ability. That's why his 2021 will be watched so closely. The Chattanooga native arrived on campus without a ton of fanfare, but ripped .426/.485/.672 with twelve extra base hits and just five strikeouts in seventeen games before the shutdown in 2020. He kept hitting in the Northwoods League over the summer (.378/.495/.500 in 27 games), and with an August birthday, he's one of the youngest draft-eligible sophomores in the class. Rhodes isn't huge at a listed 6', 200 pounds, but he finds the barrel extremely easily from the right side with a disciplined approach that will always enable him to post high on-base percentages. So far, his power has played mostly to the gaps and it's not clear how much over-the-fence pop he'll develop, but he could provide some clarity on that in 2021. The development of his power, as well as whether his exceptional on-base ability holds up against that gauntlet of SEC pitching, will determine whether Rhodes can crack the top fifty picks this summer.

Others

LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan): 6'5" lefty that has flashed plus stuff, but has limited track record after an ACL injury wiped out his true freshman season. Huge ceiling if he performs up to his potential.

C Luca Tresh (North Carolina State): Power hitting catcher trending up after a huge fall, will take over for 2020 first rounder Patrick Bailey behind the plate in Raleigh. Scouts want to see him make enough contact to tap his big power as well as continued progress in his glove.

OF Robby Martin (Florida State): Outfielder that has gotten bigger at FSU, growing into power but still has a line drive/opposite field approach. He's not quite as advanced as JJ Bleday was entering his junior season two years ago, but Martin really reminds me of Bleday at that time, before the big power breakout.

RHP Tommy Mace (Florida): Senior college starter who was arguably the best undrafted college player last year, betting on himself for another go around. Reportedly has seen the uptick in stuff scouts had been waiting for since his high school days, needs to prove it over a full season to maintain prospect status.

RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina): Another top undrafted arm, huge 6'6", 240 pound right hander with a fastball that can creep into triple digits. Also shows a big curve and advanced changeup, but has battled injuries at ECU and never put together a full season.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 27th.

The third conference in our draft preview series, the ACC class is shaping up very differently than the Big 12 and the SEC.

The Big 12 is led by big arms in Texas’ Ty Madden and Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks, but is virtually devoid of true impact bats. Meanwhile, the SEC has some big name bats in Florida’s Jud Fabian, Arkansas’ Christian Franklin, and Tennessee’s duo of Jake Rucker and Max Ferguson, but aside from Fabian, most of the bats in the conference have a lot to prove in 2021. Meanwhile, here in the ACC, we’re absolutely loaded with offensive firepower, to the point that only two pitchers crack the ACC’s top ten prospects. They say that SEC hitters have to face a “gauntlet” of high powered arms, and that’s certainly true this year with too many to name. Over in the ACC, it will be the pitchers who will have to run down a gauntlet of high powered lineups.

Louisville, after putting five players into pro ball last year despite the shortened draft, dominates this list with two of the top three and four of the top ten names and a couple more who just missed the cut. Miami, who lost its entire weekend rotation but brings in arguably the top recruiting class in the entire country, will be a hotspot for 2021 draft talent as well, and Boston College might have the best collection of talent in recent program memory. Below are the top ten 2021 prospects in the ACC, followed by a team by team rundown of other names to watch (with apologies to Pittsburgh and my alma mater, Virginia Tech, who just don’t have much going for them).

1. C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 210 lbs. Born 9/27/1999. Hometown: Miami, FL
2019-2020: 14 HR, .336/.430/.571, 4 SB, 32/43 K/BB in 77 games.

Ironically, the top offensive prospects in the SEC (Jud Fabian) and ACC share a birthday on September 27th, only Adrian Del Castillo will be turning 21 and Fabian will be turning 20 because he reclassified. Del Castillo is simply a hitter – he hit .331/.418/.576 as a true freshman, then .358/.478/.547 as a sophomore, and sandwiched between that was a respectable .273/.323/.427 line in the elite Cape Cod League as a teenager. Not only is he the ACC’s top offensive prospect this year, he’s right up there with Fabian and UCLA’s Matt McLain as arguably college baseball’s top offensive prospect as a whole.

The bat is legit. A left handed hitter, Del Castillo combines a clean, compact swing with great extension through the ball and plenty of strength packed into his 5’11” frame. This enables the Miami native to show above average power in games, and with five home runs on the Cape as a teenager, he can get to it with wood bats and against high level pitching. More impressive than his power, however, is his professional approach at the plate. He’s extremely disciplined with just a 12.9% strikeout rate for his career at Miami compared to a 17.3% walk rate, and that’s been against a tough schedule. He should have no trouble not only handling professional pitching, but hitting for impact.

Del Castillo's defense is another story. The exceptional feel he shows for hitting carries over behind the plate, where he's a fundamentally sound catcher who gets the job done all around. However, he lacks the explosive arm strength of many of his contemporaries and the raw athleticism to create the "brick wall" effect. Given his work ethic and feel for the game, it's easy to see him working his way towards average defense, and if he can indeed stick behind the plate, the bat will be special. Even if he's forced off of catcher to first base or left field, where he'd likely be below average, the bat is potent enough to still warrant a first round selection. At his ceiling, Del Castillo could produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.

2. C Henry Davis, Louisville – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/21/1999. Hometown: Bedford, NY
2019-2020: 6 HR, .303/.381/.463, 1 SB, 22/21 K/BB in 59 games.

The ACC starts off with not one, but two elite catchers, though Henry Davis is a very different prospect from Adrian Del Castillo. A well-known defense-first prospect coming out of the New York high school ranks, he made it to Louisville and held his own with a .280/.345/.386 slash line as a freshman, elevating his stock a little bit. Then, he returned as a sophomore in 2020 and smoked the baseball nonstop, slashing .372/.481/.698 with three home runs and twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games. And while the schedule wasn’t particularly strong, he did pick up four hits, including three doubles, in eight at bats (plus two walks) against Ole Miss and homered against Wake Forest. The result is a defense-first catcher who suddenly knows how to hit, which is, you know, ideal.

Let’s talk about that bat. It was pretty light in high school, not uncommon for catchers even heading to premium programs like Louisville. The first thing he showed as a freshman was the hit tool, as he struck out in just 12.2% of his plate appearances – very impressive for a 19 year old in the ACC. Then in 2020, albeit in a small sample size, came the power, when he homered in his final two games against Wake Forest and Chicago State. Davis derives that power from a crouched load, using his legs to explode outwards at the baseball and plus bat to ball skills to find the barrel more and more consistently.There’s some minor bat wrap in that setup, but that above average to potentially plus hit tool allows me to be comfortable with it overall. The overall setup might need to be quieted just a bit in pro ball, but again, with his great feel for the barrel, I’m not worried.

On defense, he has always stood out for an exceptional right arm that can virtually shut down the running game, having thrown out 12/33 runners so far at Louisville. His glovework is more ordinary, but as with Del Castillo, it’s trending in the right direction and he should be a net-positive overall with that arm. He’ll more than likely stick behind the plate, making his offensive profile much more appealing. If he can continue hitting in 2021 like he did in 2020, when he showed a plus hit tool and solid average power in a small sample, he could vault himself into top ten pick consideration, much like Dillon Dingler may have with more opportunity last year.

3. 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3, 210 lbs. Born 5/26/2000. Hometown: Oak Creek, WI
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.

Henry Davis just edges out Alex Binelas on my draft board, but Binelas might have the most exciting bat in the Louisville lineup, itself one of the strongest in the entire country. Hailing from the Milwaukee-area prep ranks, he burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019 and slashed .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and 33 extra base hits overall in 59 games, immediately establishing himself as one of the top names in a draft that was still two years away at the time. His encore in 2020 ended abruptly when he injured his hand against Ole Miss in just the second game of the season, so for now, all we have to go off is that exceptional freshman season.

The very first thing I notice with Binelas, beyond the numbers, is his swing. It’s lightning quick and incredibly explosive, allowing him to punish velocity by sending the baseball impressive distances. It can get a little choppy at times, which leads to some swing and miss questions, but it’s hard to teach bat speed like that. His plate discipline was decent but nothing special in that big freshman season, though it’s a bit unfair to judge his approach based on a freshman run through the ACC. 2021 will be a big opportunity for him to elevate his stock in that regard, especially considering the tangential questions about his hit tool. Still, you don’t knock 33 extra base hits as a freshman in the ACC without at least some feel for hitting, and his offensive upside is perhaps the best in the ACC.

On defense, we see somewhat of a similar story. Binelas shows a strong arm from third base, though he’s a bit choppy with the glove and makes for a decent overall third baseman. A few years ago, scouts might have been comfortable calling it “good enough” and letting him deploy that arm over there, but with shifting becoming a huge part of a third baseman’s job, his range becomes a little more stretched. That could lead to a move to first base or right field depending on his progress, where the pressure would increase on his hit tool. He has some to prove in 2021, but his combination of upside and college track record will be hard to match anywhere in the draft.

4. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’9″, 175 lbs. Born 4/2000. Hometown: Lexington, MA
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.

Boston College has the best group of draft talent it’s seen in years, and right at the top of that list is Sal Frelick. Though smaller in stature, he’s exploding with tools and jumped out to a .367/.447/.513 slash line with 18 stolen bases and more walks (22) than strikeouts as a freshman in 2019. Though his 2020 started slower before the shutdown (.241/.380/.414), he picked it right back up in summer ball with a .398/.473/.592 run through the FCBL. No question, this kid can flat out play.

Frelick’s big numbers have mostly come from a true plus hit tool, which has enabled him to strike out in just 8.8% of his plate appearances so far at Boston College. Though undersized, his exceptional feel for the barrel combined with innate athleticism enables him to hit for more power than you’d expect, with plenty of doubles, triples, and even home runs. The Boston-area native shows plus-plus speed that has enabled him to steal 25 bases in 28 tries at BC, and that becomes 35 bases in 39 tries when combined with his summer stats. He shows great range in the outfield and should be an asset in center field, giving him nearly the total package.

Let’s talk swing mechanics. Frelick has a simple swing in which he keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, which is a good thing, and when he gets his pitch, it can be a really smooth, pretty swing at that. His mechanics can vary more than most tend to, and when he doesn’t get his pitch, he tends to flail at the ball. The good news is that his elite barrel control still enables him to make very consistent contact on those pitches, and strikeouts have never been even remotely a concern. Watching him hit, it’s actually pretty impressive to see him way out on his front foot and still drop singles the other way or put difficult pitches in play, but going forward he’ll probably want to accept a little more swing and miss so that he can get his “A” swing off more often than not. With his strong pitch recognition skills, a more consistently upright Frelick could be a true impact hitter at the next level, despite being one of the smallest guys on the field.

5. RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/12/1999. Hometown: Sudbury, MA
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 innings.

In contrast to the hitters, there aren’t any truly complete pitching prospects in the ACC. Ryan Cusick can’t even be considered the closest in that regard, but the stuff is nonetheless exciting. Though he hails from the Boston suburbs, Cusick attended the Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer and 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin, and looks to be the latest in a strong line of baseball players from the Hartford-area powerhouse. His freshman season was pretty ordinary in 2019, putting up a 6.44 ERA and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio across 65.2 innings, but he raised a lot of eyebrows in 2020 when his stuff took a big step forward. That led to a 3.22 ERA and a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, and in this case, scouting the stat line does indeed tell the story.

Cusick is a 6’6″ right hander with wicked stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, can bump as high as 97-98, and you’ll notice in this video that he hit 95 on his 103rd and final pitch of the game against Louisville. He can also rip off a wicked slider with serious bite, a true plus pitch at its best, but at times it can flatten out considerably. His third pitch is his changeup, which he doesn’t use often, but he can flash a solid average one with nice fade to the arm side. All of this was on full display in the Coastal Plain League over the summer, where he dominated with a 1.14 ERA and a 40/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings.

Of course, the big question here is command and consistency, with the aforementioned breaking ball problems and the fact that he walked 18 batters in 22.1 innings last year. Prior to that, though, he had only walked 36 batters in 101.1 innings between his freshman season and the Cape Cod League, and then he walked just nine in 23.2 innings this summer. That suggests that he may simply need time to learn to harness that newfound stuff, and if the summer numbers are telling the truth, he already has. Cusick is a prime contender for a breakout in 2021, one who could rocket up boards similarly to how Bobby Miller did so a year ago. He clearly has the arm strength to start, so if he can just take even incremental steps forward with his consistency and command, good things will happen to his projections. If not, he has a high floor as a fastball/slider reliever who could see high leverage innings in the big leagues.

6. 2B Cody Morissette, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 1/16/2000. Hometown: Exeter, NH
2019-2020: 6 HR, .346/.402/.512, 11 SB, 43/29 K/BB in 73 games.

Sal Frelick and his teammate Cody Morissette form arguably the best 1-2 lineup punch in college baseball, and while they have put up similar numbers at Boston College, they’re very different players. Morissette gave a strong first impression as a freshman in 2019, hitting .320/.371/.476 across 58 games, then exploded for a .448/.522/.655 line in 15 games a s a sophomore in 2020. That wasn’t a product of a weak schedule, as he picked up six hits in three games against Arizona State and eight hits in three games against Clemson.

We could go on and on about how Frelick’s tools impact the game, but with Morissette, he just hits – and I mean that as a compliment. He has no trouble squaring up advanced pitching with a very steady hit tool and emerging power, and he’s been extremely consistent at BC. It may seem like a high-floor, low-ceiling projection, but that consistent bat has shown more and more impact over time and he could be ready for a very loud 2021 campaign. At six feet tall, the New Hampshire native doesn’t have a big frame but isn’t the smallest guy on the field either, so the hope is that he could end up with a 15-20 home run bat down the line.

Defensively, Morissette won’t wow anybody, looking more than capable at second base but probably a bit stretched at shortstop. If he doesn’t generate enough impact to start, he could handle the prime position on a part time basis, and his experience all over the diamond aids him in the shifting era. Personally, I see some Keston Hiura here (albeit in the other batters box), though Hiura had that huge junior season going for him and Morissette looks to be the slightly better defender. Hiura went ninth overall out of UC Irvine in 2017, so don’t sleep on Morissette’s draft ceiling if he can put together a big junior year like he’s capable of.

7. OF Robby Martin, Florida State – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 8/17/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .317/.408/.440, 3 SB, 76/45 K/BB in 80 games.

The bats just keep on coming. Leading the way in one of the most talented outfields in the country is Florida State’s Robby Martin, a steady .317/.408/.440 hitter during his time in Tallahassee. A highly touted prep outfielder coming from the Tampa area, Martin has steadily improved at FSU and now has evaluators excitedly pegging him for a breakout.

More about projection as a high schooler, Martin now has legitimate tools across the board and can impact the game in many ways. He’s maintained the above average speed and strong hit tool from high school, but with lots of added strength and a track record of hitting in college, he’s a much more complete prospect. Martin uses and opposite field approach that results in a lot of line drives and otherwise hard contact, which has enabled him to produce at FSU and in the Florida Collegiate Summer League (.313/.397/.417).

To this point, he hasn’t shown much in-game power, but he has really tacked on strength in Tallahassee and filled out his 6’3″ frame. Though his power isn’t quite as robust, he finds himself in a similar position to where Vanderbilt’s JJ Bleday was heading into the 2019 season, and a more power conscious and launch angle-conscious swing could have him headed for a breakout. If so, we could be talking straight 55 grades across almost every tool and a first round selection.

8. 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 10/19/1999. Hometown: Lewes, DE.
2019-2020: 7 HR, .321/.399/.472, 20 SB, 70/37 K/BB in 74 games.

As someone who played a lot of baseball on the Delmarva Peninsula growing up, it’s cool to see the region’s first big name draft prospect since Tyler Webb (via South Carolina in 2013). While they’re not the best at cranking out reliable pitching, UVA has a nice track record of producing competent, disciplined hitters like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, and Matt Thaiss in recent years, and Delaware native Zack Gelof is one of two big bats they’re sending out this year. He adapted to college pitching well as a freshman (.313/.377/.396), hit well in the Northwoods League over the summer (.349/.426/.490), and was off to an exceptional start in 2020 with a .349/.469/.746 line and five home runs in eighteen games.

Gelof does not have one standout tool, but shows well across the board. He’s smoothed out his right handed swing since high school and has produced plenty of hard contact in college, using Davenport Field’s spacious gaps to his advantage for plenty of extra base hits. He started turning those gappers into home runs in 2020, and evaluators are excited to see if he can maintain that power surge in 2021. If so, it would help alleviate some questions about his hit tool, as he is very adept at finding the barrel but has not shown the great K/BB ratio’s seen with many of his predecessors in Charlottesville. In 2020, he upped his walk rate to a nice 15.9%, but still struck out 22% of the time after showing similar strikeout rates throughout his career.

Gelof finds himself in a good spot heading into 2020. By either maintaining his power surge or lowering his strikeout rate, he could easily find himself in the first round. However, if he can’t do either, I think most evaluators would feel more comfortable pegging a 50 hit, 50 power third baseman in the second. His glove should help him, as he’s proven very capable at third base and will easily handle shifting. There are a lot of 50’s and 55’s in his profile, not too dissimilar to Robby Martin above him on this list, though Martin is just a little bit toolsier. Gelof is praised for his feel for the game and ability to play above his tools.

9. OF Levi Usher, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 210 lbs. Born 6/25/2000. Hometown: Fairfax, IA
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 games.

The last three players on this list (Cody Morissette, Robby Martin, and Zack Gelof) did a lot of things well, but didn’t flash individual “wow” tools. Levi Usher, the third member of the Louisville lineup on this list, has wow tools. He put up some eye popping numbers at Iowa’s Kirkwood CC, slashing .409/.493/.538 with 36 stolen bases in 53 games, then kept on hitting with a similar .411/.484/.571 line and eleven stolen bases for Louisville in 2020. Together, that makes for one exciting player heading into 2021.

Usher is the prototypical “raw, toolsy athlete.” He has a very loose, athletic left handed swing and a line drive approach that has served him exceptionally well so far, absolutely beating up on weaker opponents throughout his career. Given his strength and operation, you can project some power as well, likely enough for 15-20 home runs a year in the big leagues. He does come with some strikeout concerns, but he’s done so much damage on balls in play that it’s easy to overlook those for now. Then we have the plus to plus-plus speed that has given him 47 stolen bases in 69 games between Kirkwood and Louisville, which will serve him very well on both sides of the ball. Combine “raw and toolsy” with on-base percentages near .500, and you’re in business.

The one main knock on Usher is not really his fault. He didn’t face strong competition in the Iowa JUCO ranks, and while he combined to go 10-22 against Ole Miss and Wake Forest in 2020, there hasn’t been much sample size against legitimate pitching staffs. Over two summers in the Northwoods League, he’s slashed just .261/.337/.373 with a 46/17 strikeout to walk ratio, leading to some questions as to how his approach will play against advanced pitching and how his power will play with wood bats. Still, you can’t deny the production he’s had with metal bats and the tools are outstanding, so another strong season in the Cardinals’ lineup could make him an easy first round pick. Scouts will be watching his run through ACC play very closely in 2021.

10. RHP Jack Perkins, Louisville

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 200 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN
2019: 3-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37/18 K/BB in 32.1 IP.

Our fourth member of the Louisville program to crack this top ten list, Jack Perkins is somewhat similar to Levi Usher in that he lacks much of a track record. He put up a 4.18 ERA and struck out 37 batters as a freshman reliever in 2019, but he also walked 18 in 32.1 innings and went down with Tommy John surgery in June of that year. After missing the 2020 college season, he got on the mound for 18.1 more innings in summer ball with more of the same – 2.45 ERA, 23/14 K/BB. Now a redshirt sophomore, he heads into 2021 with as much to prove as anybody.

The 6’1″ righty shows electric stuff from the right side. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out at 97 in relief, while his slider flashes plus and can miss bats in bunches. We also have a curveball and changeup, but those two pitches are well behind the fastball and slider. Perkins gets some deception from a bit of a crossfire deliver, but there is some effort there as well, which is more concerning combined with his surgery. If Perkins wants to start in pro ball, he’ll also have to improve his command considerably, as the jerk in his delivery can cause him to lose his release point.

We’re talking about a high ceiling and a low floor for Perkins, clearly. Tommy John surgery is commonplace these days and he’s fully healthy now, so if he can just get some innings under his belt, it might be all he needs to improve that command and his curve or changeup. Smoothing out his delivery would help as well, as it could be the root of his command problems. There’s a good chance he’s forced to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination could really play up, but teams would like to send him out as a starter if possible.

Other ACC Interesting Options

Boston College:

Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette provide the most exciting prospect duo the Eagles have seen in recent memory, but we’re also excited for Friday nights in Chestnut Hill. Mason Pelio is BC’s best pitching prospect since Justin Dunn, having put up a 3.73 ERA and an 81/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for his career. He lacks the explosive stuff seen in top ten ACC prospects Ryan Cusick and Jack Perkins, but he’s much more pro-ready than either of them. He has a big, durable frame at 6’3″ and has averaged five and a half innings per start, deploying a cutting low 90’s fastball and an above average changeup. His cutter means he has been adept at missing barrels, but the lack of a good breaking ball has limited his bat-missing ability and at this point he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. Improving his breaking ball to at least average would be the biggest thing he could do. With slightly above average command, fine tuning that just a little into a true 55 could take pressure off his breaking ball.

Clemson:

The Tigers didn’t put a single player in the top ten, but that doesn’t mean they’re devoid of draft talent. Davis Sharpe is the ACC’s best two-way prospect, having hit .276/.392/.431 with seven home runs at Clemson while putting up a 3.33 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings on the mound. Though he shows power and patience at the plate, his bat is probably a little light for first base, so his future is likely on the mound. His fastball sits around 90 but can touch 95, and his slider flashes above average to even plus at times. The 6’4″ righty has some effort in his delivery but does a good job of throwing strikes, and could be a breakout candidate for 2021. Neither Carter Raffield nor Mack Anglin have much in the way of track record, but both can hit the mid 90’s with their fastballs and could take big steps forward in 2021. Lastly, Adam Hackenberg was a highly touted name coming out of the Virginia high school ranks, but he’s still looking for a breakout. His cannon arm will help him stick behind the plate, taking pressure off his bat. He’s shown plus raw power in batting practice but it comes at the expense of his hit tool, with an aggressive approach and a lot of swing and miss. Any improvement in his offensive game will make him a priority for area scouts.

Duke:

A year after producing first rounder Bryce Jarvis, the Blue Devils have two names that just missed the top ten. Cooper Stinson is the younger brother of former Blue Devil and current Rays prospect Graeme Stinson, and he has momentum heading into 2021. Stinson finished 2020 with a 0.42 ERA and a 24/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 21.2 innings against a schedule that included Minnesota and Florida State. He sits around 90 with his fastball but tends to pitch above that number more than below, and his quick right arm puts nice angle on the ball. The 6’6″ righty also shows a good slider and a changeup, with his control improving in 2020 as well. Command can still be a bit shaky, but he’s one of the most complete pitchers in the ACC. We also have Ethan Murray, a career .293/.394/.434 hitter in Durham. He’s one of those guys with no standout tool but no weaknesses either, showing great plate discipline and a consistent, line drive approach at the plate. There isn’t much power at this point, but he should produce enough doubles and triples to keep pitchers honest. As with his bat, his feel for the game stands out more than his physical tools on defense, with the polish to handle shortstop but perhaps not the arm strength and athleticism. Sticking there would give him a better chance to play full time, but his most likely role is as a utility infielder who can impact the game in a lot of ways. Joey Loperfido is behind Stinson and Murray on draft boards, showing lots of average tools but having yet to put it together. A likely outfielder who has played almost everywhere, he has some power, some speed, and solid plate discipline, but he’ll need to find a way to impact the game consistently in pro ball.

Florida State:

Robby Martin is easily the best prospect in Tallahassee, but he’s part of one of the most talented outfields in college baseball with Reese Albert and Elijah Cabell. Albert was eligible in 2020 but withdrew from the draft, and now carries a career .270/.381/.491 slash line into 2021. Albert is a pretty basic “college performer” type who has shown some power, the ability to get to it in games, a patient approach, and steady overall performance. With a July birthday, he’s not much older than most first time eligible players, and brings a track record that many cannot match. He’s a bit of a sleeper to become a useful platoon or full time bat down the road. Cabell, meanwhile, was also draft eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot .263/.488/.649 start to the season. Despite being a class below Albert, he’s actually slightly older, and shows louder tools. Cabell has huge raw power and some surprising speed, but has also struck out in nearly 40% (!) of his plate appearances. Because of this, evaluators have serious questions as to whether he’ll reach that power in pro ball, coming into the 2021 draft with a similar profile to Bobby Dalbec. On the mound, Jack Anderson is a breakout candidate with a low 90’s fastball and a solid breaking ball. To this point, he’s struggled to find innings on that crowded FSU pitching staff.

Georgia Tech:

GT is another school loaded with prospects who just missed the top ten list. Luke Waddell returns a career .308/.410/.409 hitter, an extremely polished bat with great consistency. At a stocky 5’9″, he doesn’t profile for much power, and has just four career home runs for the Yellow Jackets, so the upside is limited. Given that he’ll turn 23 during the 2021 draft, he has a pretty clear high floor, utility profile. He profiles best at second base but can handle shortstop if needed. Brant Hurter is listed at 6’6″, 250 pounds, and was also eligible in 2020. He was dominant as a sophomore in 2019 (2.42 ERA, 58/14 K/BB) but missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery, and is now healthy. Hurter effectively commands a low 90’s fastball and a sharp slider, giving him a chance to start despite turning 23 shortly after the draft. He’s a bit of a sleeper. Luke Bartnicki and Cort Roedig bring more exciting stuff, but both can be enigmatic. Bartnicki was a well-known draft prospect as a high schooler and has shown flashes of dominance in Midtown Atlanta, but hasn’t put it together quite yet. His low 90’s fastball can touch 94-95 without much effort, and his low three quarters arm slot makes him tough on lefties. The 6’3″ lefty also shows a good slider that can elicit chases and miss bats when he’s ahead in the count, but his command has made everything play down so far. Roedig, meanwhile, has an unconventional windup in which he crouches, quickly replaces his feet as fast as he can, then slows up again to deliver the ball. His fastball can touch 97 with high spin rates, and his high spin slider flashes above average as well. To this point, he’s been around the strike zone but everything has been inconsistent, and he might need to settle down just a little bit to take full advantage of his stuff. He profiles as a reliever at this point but if he just calms down a little, he might be able to surprise some people.

Louisville:

The Cardinals put four names in the top ten and we’ve got even more to talk about. Michael Kirian was eligible in 2020 but went undrafted, and now with Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller out of his way, he has a chance to prove himself as a starter. The 6’6″ lefty has been untouchable with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings the last two seasons, all in relief. He has a low 90’s fastball that touches 95 as well as a good curveball, and as a starter in 2021 he’ll get to show off his less used cutter and changeup. If he can maintain his velocity in a starting role, he’ll fly up boards, because I always thought the stuff was a little light for relief. Jared Poland can challenge Davis Sharpe as the best two-way prospect in the ACC, though I still prefer Sharpe. Poland hasn’t performed much at the plate or on the mound yet for Louisville, showing a low 90’s fastball and a nice changeup on the mound combined with a good hit tool at the plate. He looked good on the Cape as a pitcher, and refining his breaking ball a little could make him a legitimate #3/#4 starter prospect. At the plate, he has started to tap some power and needs to continue that to profile as more than a utility infielder. We also have Glenn Albanese, a pure relief prospect with a mid 90’s fastball and a curveball that flashes plus. He struck out 18 of the 37 batters he faced in 2020 and more of the same could make him one of the top relief names in the draft.

Miami:

The Hurricanes pulled in a fantastic incoming recruiting class, giving Adrian Del Castillo lots of high octane arms to work with. One of those is JUCO transfer Jake Smith, who had a 1.59 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio at State College of Florida last year. The 6’5″ righty is a breakout candidate on the back of a plus fastball that can hit 97 with solid command. He’ll need to refine his offspeed pitches a bit more but could fly up boards if he does. 6’1″ lefty JP Gates is another breakout candidate who should see more innings in 2021, currently showing an above average fastball/slider combination in relief. Any uptick in velocity should make him a legitimate late inning weapon. It’s a relief projection on the surface, but with the whole weekend rotation gone from last year, he could have a chance to start, though he’ll need to refine his changeup considerably. Lastly, Alex Toral‘s name has been thrown around for a while now, and he blasted 24 home runs in 61 games in 2019. Obviously, he’s a power hitter, and he also shows nice patience at the plate that should help him tap it in pro ball. The swing is a bit grooved and gives me some Matt Adams vibes.

North Carolina:

By far, UNC’s best draft prospect is infielder Danny Serretti. The New Jersey native will get plenty of comps to crosstown rival Ethan Murray over at Duke, showing a steady profile rather than a toolsy one. He doesn’t have much power in his 6’1″ frame but did hit 18 doubles as a freshman, showing a line drive bat and a knack for getting on base. He has a chance to stick at shortstop, which will make his bat more attractive, but he didn’t show much impact on the Cape in 2019. Scouts will be looking for more gap power to project more impact in pro ball. We also have the unproven Joe Charles, who has touched 97 with his fastball but is otherwise a one tool player. He’ll need significant refinement in his command and added power to his slurvy breaking balls, which do have potential.

North Carolina State:

The Wolfpack get back Tyler McDonough, who was undrafted in 2020 despite a career .327/.407/.473 line. He’s a college performer with strong plate discipline and some ambush power, a bit of a sleeper given his 5’10” frame. He’ll be 22 before draft day but could quietly hit his way up the ranks. Jose Torres is the Pack’s top draft prospect, a glove-first shortstop who can get to any ball he wants. His bat was considered very light coming out of high school near Baltimore, but he burst onto the scene with a .333/.369/.533 line and three home runs as a freshman in 2020. Draft eligible with a 1999 birthday, he’s very skinny at six feet tall but could grow into some power if he starts generating more leverage with his swing. His plate discipline is very raw at this point, so cleaning it up will be a big priority for 2021, but that glove buys his bat plenty of slack and if he continues the hot hitting he showed in 2020, look out.

Virginia:

Joining Zack Gelof in that strong UVA lineup will be Nic Kent, who just missed the top ten list. Kent has hit everywhere he’s gone, including .335/.426/.450 in Charlottesville and .373/.420/.464 in the Northwoods League. He has a simple, line drive swing that produces hard contact to all fields, and he rarely swings and misses. That hit tool is clearly his best attribute, but if he can a) tap some more power from his 6’2″ frame or b) prove he can stick at shortstop, he has first round aspirations. Andrew Abbott is one of the top returning undrafted arms, and looks to be one of the top relievers in the class. He’s a smaller lefty at 6′, but makes up for it with a bulldog mentality on the mound and a strong fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low 90’s, nothing crazy, but the curveball is a true weapon and he goes right after hitters. We also have Mike Vasil, who was a top draft prospect coming out of the Boston area high school ranks in 2018, but he has not developed as expected. After hitting 96 in high school, he’s been closer to 90 in college and dips below that number fairly often. His breaking balls haven’t really come along and lack finish to this point, but his changeup his lone above average pitch. Vasil has a great body at 6’4″ and plenty of arm strength, so scouts will be watching closely to see if he can regain that old form. The talent is absolutely there and if he can add a tick or two back to his fastball, he might have some similarities to last year’s Tommy Mace.

Wake Forest:

The Demon Deacons bring a couple of big bats back who were draft eligible last year. Bobby Seymour hit .377/.439/.576 as a sophomore in 2019, but otherwise has been more solid than great, which isn’t quite enough for a first baseman. He’ll look to tap more power from his big 6’4″, 250 pound frame. Meanwhile, Chris Lanzilli has a fairly similar profile, having hit .347/.409/.620 in a big sophomore season in 2019 with a career .314/.394/.594 line and 31 home runs. He’s a big power bat, more so than Seymour, but scouts see him more as a college performer than a pro masher. He’s plenty strong enough to project for above average pop, but he’s not quite as explosive as some of the other power hitters in this class and will be 23 on draft day.