At this point last year, the Twins system was riding high off two breakout seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, though the two of them couldn't quite repeat this year. That's very much okay, as they're 20 and 22, respectively, and they remain arguably the top two prospects in this system. Meanwhile, a lot of other things went right, as a massive breakout from Jordan Balazovic stood at the forefront while guys like Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Travis Blankenhorn, Cole Sands, Edwar Colina, and Bailey Ober steadily increased their stock on their own. That, combined with a great draft class headlined by the boom/bust Keoni Cavaco as well as a slew of college performers, puts the system in a really nice place right now with a lot of depth around the field. If the Twins can get Akil Baddoo, Blayne Enlow, and Wander Javier to break out next, they'd be very happy.
Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, complex level GCL and DSL Twins
Catcher
- Ryan Jeffers (2020 Age: 22-23): Jeffers was a second round pick out of UNC Wilmington in 2018, and he's just hit and hit since being drafted. After slashing .344/.444/.502 in his pro debut in 2018, he slashed .264/.341/.421 with 14 home runs and an 83/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola in 2019, actually hitting better after the promotion (.287/.374/.483). Jeffers has a ton of pop in his 6'4" frame, and while there were questions as to how it would play with wood bats, he's answered them and more in pro ball. Additionally, he does a very nice job of controlling the strike zone, enabling him to hit advanced pitching consistently, and overall he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages at the major league level. His defense is coming along and he should be able to stick behind the plate, which could make him a starting-caliber catcher, though he should have just enough bat to profile at first base if he has to move there.
- Keep an eye on: Ben Rortvedt, Jeferson Morales
Corner Infield
- Jose Miranda (2020 Age: 21-22): Miranda was a second round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2016, and in 2019 he slashed .252/.302/.369 with eight home runs and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games, mostly at High A Fort Myers. Despite being relatively young for the level, Miranda showed a great hit tool that kept his strikeouts very low, using a quick right handed swing and great hand eye coordination to make consistent contact. The Twins hope that power will come, as he did hit 16 home runs in 2018, though the Florida State League can sometimes sap power and that may have been the case for Miranda in 2019. Tapping that power, which is entirely possible given his bat speed and 6'2" frame, will be the key to earning a starting role down the line, as he plays ordinary defense at both second and third base, not enough to set him apart. Whether he ends up at second or third will likely depend on the Twins' needs, and he probably has a larger chance of becoming a utility infielder anyways.
- Ryan Costello (2020 Age: 23-24): Costello was a 31st round pick out of Central Connecticut State in 2017, but he's really tapped his power in pro ball and was sent from the Mariners to the Twins in the Zach Duke deal in 2018. This year, he struggled a bit against advanced pitching, slashing .223/.343/.412 with 15 home runs and a 109/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola, and as a first baseman only, he's going to need more production. Fortunately, there were some positives from his tough season, as his patient approach netted him a lot of walks to boost his on-base percentage and he hit right handed pitching quite well. Given his above average power and his ability to hit righties, he has a really good shot at earning some spot starts at first base and DH to spell the right handed Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz down the line.
- Keep an eye on: Andrew Bechtold, Chris Williams, Seth Gray
Middle Infield
- Royce Lewis (2020 Age: 20-21): It was a bit of a tough year for Lewis, the first overall pick out of a Southern California high school in 2017, but he's still only 20 years old and it doesn't hurt his stock too much. After hitting .292/.352/.451 in his first full season in 2018, he slumped to .236/.290/.371 with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola in 2019, though he did hit .400/.478/.650 with a home run in the Southern League playoffs after the season. There is a whole lot to like in Lewis, as he makes easy, consistent, hard contact from the right side and has managed to tap at least some power in his wiry 6'2" frame. He can also fly on the bases, enabling him to steal 68 bases in three years, and he's quickly improving at shortstop and looks like he's going to stick there. He trusts his hit tool so much that he can get aggressive at the plate, so the next step in his development will probably be learning to work counts more effectively and get pitches he wants to hit, rather than just pitches he can hit early in the count. There is little doubt that he'll be able to make that adjustment, and the upside remains that of a 15-20 homer bat with high on-base percentages and good defense, which would make him a borderline All Star.
- Nick Gordon (2020 Age: 24): Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's little brother went fifth overall out of an Orlando high school in 2014, but it's taken a long time to finish off his development as he's stalled in the upper minors. A year after smoking AA pitching and struggling in AAA, Gordon hit a little better at the level in 2019 and slashed .298/.342/.459 with four home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 65/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at AAA Rochester, fighting through nagging injuries along the way. At this point, with the emergence of Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez in the Twins' middle infield, it might be tough for Gordon to break through into a starting role before Royce Lewis catches up to him. He makes consistent line drive contact but doesn't hit for much power, and without a ton of walks, he fits more as a utility infielder than a true starter at this point with the Twins' infield depth. He could be a very fine one, and he could be an all-around asset off the bench or in spot starts in the very near future.
- Travis Blankenhorn (2020 Age: 23-24): A tough 2018 (.231/.299/.387) dented Blankenhorn's stock, but he earned it back in 2019 by slashing .277/.321/.466 with 19 home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 105/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. A third round pick out of the Pennsylvania high school ranks in 2015, he has worked his way up slowly but he shows a broad skill set that enables him to contribute in a variety of ways. His 6'2" frame and ability to find the barrel enables him to hit for some power, he limits his strikeouts to a reasonable amount, and his strong base running instincts help his fringy speed play up to efficient base stealing (38 steals in 45 career attempts, an 84.4% success rate). He's only a so-so defender that has seen time around the infield, and his bat is probably a bit too light to make up for it, so he has a shot at becoming a utility or super utility player down the road. It's a bit of a tweener profile, though, so he'll probably have to take one more step forward with some part of his game in order to stick.
- Wander Javier (2020 Age: 21): Javier signed for $4 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, but it has been a bumpy road so far for the young kid to say the least. He battled injuries in 2016 but broke out to slash .299/.383/.471 in 2017, then missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He returned in 2019 and struggled, slashing .177/.278/.323 with eleven home runs and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games at Class A Cedar Rapids, but it's way too early to give up on him just yet. He's an explosive player with a lot of wiry strength that can produce good power, and he was able to get to it a bit in 2019 despite otherwise struggling. The Twins are hoping that he just needs another year to distance himself from the injury with more consistent at bats, and given that he'll play the whole season at 21 years old, he has a lot of time to put it behind him. With his good arm, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but could be a very fine third baseman if he doesn't. Really, it's hard to say what to expect at this point, but 2020 will be an important year for his development.
- Spencer Steer (2020 Age: 22): Steer was a bit of a sleeper when the Twins picked him up in the third round out of Oregon in 2019, and he's already starting to make people take notice after slashing .280/.385/.424 with four home runs and a 33/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Class A Cedar Rapids in his pro debut. If there's one way to describe him, it's competent. Steer understands the game all around, with a very advanced approach at the plate and the ability to find the barrel consistently from the right side. He's also a solid defender who can handle any position on the infield, and he played second, third, and shortstop in his pro debut. He looks like a utility infielder right off the bat due to the lack of power in his 5'11" frame, but I wouldn't write him off yet and he has a very real chance to hit his way to a starting job somewhere in the infield as a guy who could hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at his ceiling.
- Will Holland (2020 Age: 22): Holland was a fringe-first rounder heading into 2019, but an up and down junior year at Auburn dropped him to the fifth round, where the Twins happily grabbed him. He was up and down in his pro debut as well, slashing .192/.299/.376 with seven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 44/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at rookie level Elizabethton. Watching Holland play, he looks like a major leaguer with quick twitchy athleticism, smooth actions on the field, and the ability to hit for some power despite standing just 5'10". However, even coming out of a major SEC program, he's raw as a player and has the upside/floor combination you'd more expect to see in a high school draftee. He has to learn to lock down the strike zone and stay within himself at the plate, as he has a tendency to get over-aggressive and power-conscious at the plate. He has some natural power and feel for the barrel, and while he likely won't be a true power hitter, employing more of a balanced approach could help him be a real impact hitter down the road. He's also a very good defender and should stick at shortstop, which buys the bat time to develop.
- Keoni Cavaco (2020 Age: 18-19): Cavaco might have most extreme boom/bust profile in this system, having just been drafted in the first round out of a San Diego-area high school in 2019. He slashed just .172/.217/.253 with a home run and a 35/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, but that doesn't damper the Twins' excitement at all. Cavaco was a pop-up player who burst onto the scene in the spring, showing huge raw power from the right side as well as a cannon arm and a quickly improving all-around game. He generates that power from a big right handed swing, though given his overall profile as well as his tough pro debut, he might need to tone it down a bit in order to get to his power consistently in pro ball. There's also a chance he sticks at shortstop, though with his strong arm, he'd be a great fit for third base, especially given the depth up the middle in this system and the lack thereof at the corners. Additionally, with the full name of Keoni Kealakekua Cavaco, he grades as an 80 (top of the scale) in the all-important "name tool."
- Keep an eye on: Yeltsin Encarnacion, Michael Helman, Yunior Severino, Anthony Prato, Luis Gomez
Outfield
- Alex Kirilloff (2020 Age: 22): Kirilloff was a first round pick out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016, then after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he broke out in 2018 by slashing .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra base hits in 130 games. His numbers weren't quite as impressive in 2019, but he still finished at .283/.343/.413 with nine home runs and a 76/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games at AA Pensacola, where he out-hit Royce Lewis. Kirilloff has the chance to be an impact hitter with his ability to make easy, consistent, hard contact from the left side, and he's already begun to tap some power. That should help him become a broad contributor at the plate in the majors, one who could hit 20-25 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, depending on how much he walks. In this case the bat is the entirety of the value, as he's an average left fielder who can hold his own. There's not much room in the Twins outfield right now, but if Kirilloff hits the way he is capable of, they will find a spot for him.
- Brent Rooker (2020 Age: 25): Rooker rode a sensational redshirt junior year at Mississippi State to becoming a Twins' competitive balance selection in 2017, and he's cracked 54 home runs in 259 games so far in the minors. 14 of those came in 2019, when he slashed .282/.399/.530 with a 95/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between AAA Rochester and some complex level rehab, though he missed time with wrist and groin problems and that likely kept him from reaching the majors. He has a ton of raw power that he generates from an explosive right handed swing and a sturdy 6'3" frame, and he's shown no problems getting to it in the minors with a .505 career slugging percentage and a .238 career ISO. He does swing and miss quite a bit, and while it hasn't impacted his game power yet in the minors, it's still something to watch once he reaches the majors. Defensively, he's below average and could even be considered a minor liability, and the Twins have tried him at first base as well as in right field. Given the depth in that Minnesota lineup, as well as the fact that Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach are coming up right behind him, it's hard to se him locking down a full time starting role unless he just rakes in Yordan Alvarez or Aristides Aquino fashion, though with his power, an explosive debut is not out of the question. I think he could lock down a starting role if given the chance and some time to prove himself, it just might be tough to get that chance in Minnesota.
- Trevor Larnach (2020 Age: 23): Larnach, a first round selection out of Oregon State in 2018, had a successful first full season in 2019 by slashing .309/.384/.458 with 13 home runs and a 124/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola, and now he's just about knocking on the door to the big leagues. Larnach has a lot of power and consistently hits the ball extremely hard, though for now it's more of a line drive approach and he's more than comfortable just spraying the ball around the field, which enabled him to hit 30 doubles this past year. If he can start to drive the ball in the air more often, he could really tap some power and hit 20-25 home runs per season, and his feel for hitting would enable him to post high on-base percentages as well. It will be interesting to see Kirilloff vs Rooker vs Larnach trying to break into that crowded Minnesota outfield. Rooker has the most power, while Kirilloff is the youngest and Larnach is perhaps the most balanced overall.
- Matt Wallner (2020 Age: 22): It's tough finding hometown players when you play in the Upper Midwest, but with Joe Mauer retired, the Twins might have found a new Minnesotan to take his place. Wallner, who grew up in Forest Lake about 25 miles north of St. Paul on I-35, was set to attend North Dakota before they closed down their baseball program, and he ended up way down south at Southern Miss. A standout career as a two-way player led to his selection in the competitive balance round in 2019, and he hit .258/.357/.452 with eight home runs and an 80/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Class A Cedar Rapids. Standing at a listed 6'5" and 220 pounds, Wallner is, as you'd expect, a power hitter. He has some of the best raw power in the system, perhaps challenged only by Brent Rooker and Keoni Cavaco, though there are questions as to his hit tool. He generates his power more on strength than bat speed, and he was a bit of a streaky hitter at Southern Miss. He'll have to keep the strikeouts down in order to hit at the higher levels, and he could have a similar profile to a left handed Rooker. One leg he does have up on Rooker is his cannon arm that could have gotten him drafted in the top five rounds as a pitcher, which makes him a solid right fielder.
- Akil Baddoo (2020 Age: 21): Baddoo went in the second competitive balance round out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then hit .323/.436/.527 in his first full season to put himself on the map, albeit in rookie ball. Mixed results in 2018 (.243/.351/.419) let a bit of reality set in, but Tommy John surgery ended his 2019 season in May, after he had slashed .214/.290/.393 with four home runs and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at High A Fort Myers. He's a solid player with a clean, powerful swing from the left side, which enables him to hit his fair share of home runs as well as plenty of balls in the gaps, which he uses his plus speed to stretch into doubles and triples. The hope was that he'd start to grow into a bit more over the fence pop in his age-20 season in 2019, but we'll have to wait and see if that happens in his age-21 season in 2020. He's also a very patient hitter that draws a lot of walks, though patience doesn't always equate to control of the zone, and he can get streaky when he falls behind in the count too often. Overall, Baddoo is a dynamic player and the Twins are really interested to see who he can be, so there will be a lot of eyes on him in 2020.
- Gilberto Celestino (2020 Age: 21): Celestino was a highly touted amateur coming out of the Dominican Republic, and he signed with the Astros for $2.5 million in 2015 before being traded to Minnesota in the Ryan Pressly deal in 2018. In 2019, he slashed .277/.349/.410 with ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an 85/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to show high upside while refining his overall game. Celestino is hit over power at this point, using his quick right handed swing to spray line drives all over the place, though he does have some wiry strength in his 6' frame and he could eventually hit 10-20 home runs per season. He's also a good runner that plays great defense in the outfield, making him a very well-rounded player for someone who won't turn 21 until just before spring training. He could develop in any number of ways, but the Twins like where he's heading and he could be an impact player on both sides of the ball in a few years.
- Misael Urbina (2020 Age: 18): Urbina signed for $2.75 million out of Venezuela in 2018, then had a successful first taste of pro ball by slashing .279/.382/.443 with two home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 14/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games in the complex level Dominican Summer League. It's not yet known quite how much impact he will hit for, but it is known that Urbina has a fantastic feel for hitting that enables him to make easy, consistent contact while controlling the count and drawing walks. Set to turn just 18 in April, it's likely that simple physical maturation will be enough to help Urbina start to really drive the ball consistently, and he did hit 14 doubles and five triples in just 50 DSL games in 2019. He's also a great runner who is still learning how to best deploy his speed in the outfield and on the bases, but it's an exciting overall package because he's got plenty of upside and he's right where the Twins want him to be in his development at this age.
- Keep an eye on: Gabriel Maciel, Ernie De La Trinidad, Trey Cabbage, Jacob Pearson, Luis Baez, Emmanuel Rodriguez
Starting Pitching
- Brusdar Graterol (2020 Age: 21): Graterol has been lighting up radar guns in the minors for a few years now, and after he posted a 1.92 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 61/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings between AA Pensacola, AAA Rochester, and some complex level rehab work, Twins fans got their first taste when he put up a 4.66 ERA and a 10/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 major league innings in September. With Graterol, everything starts with arm strength. He easily sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, and when he came out of the bullpen in his stint in the majors, he was hitting 100 with run and sink. That makes the rest of his stuff play up, including an upper 80's slider with short, hard bite as well as a curve and a changeup. His stuff is also difficult to pick up, as his lightning quick arm comes almost from a still position to suddenly releasing the ball in front of you at triple digits. His command is solid average, and it's likely that his success in the majors will hinge on whether it plays up or down at the major league level. The other, very important thing with Graterol is durability, as he has thrown just 223.2 pro innings in five years and missed all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery. If he can't hold up under a full season's worth of innings in the majors, he could be a lights out reliever.
- Lewis Thorpe (2020 Age: 24): After signing for $500,000 out of Australia in 2012, Thorpe missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery then all of 2016 with mono. However, he's made a successful return and in 2019, he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at AAA Rochester, as well as a 6.18 ERA and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 27.2 major league innings. The 6'1" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice curveball as well as a slider and a changeup, all of which he commands very well, and his command has enabled that stuff to play up and net him plenty of strikeouts. That's important, because the stuff on its own might be just a bit light to stick in a major league rotation, and that command should be the last little push he needs to be a #4 or a #5 starter in the near future. If he gets bumped out of that Minnesota rotation, a career as a lefty fastball/curveball reliever could still provide value.
- Jordan Balazovic (2020 Age: 21): A fifth round pick out of a Toronto-area high school in 2016, Balazovic flashed high ceiling potential over his first couple of seasons in the minors before truly breaking out in 2019. That breakout came with a 2.69 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 129/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, showing no loss of effectiveness against the more advanced Florida State League hitters. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has added depth to his slider, which now looks like a plus pitch. His command has also been steadily improving, and with a solid changeup, he's much more of a complete pitcher than he was a year ago. Balazovic has also grown while in the Twins' system, now standing 6'5", and his long arms help his stuff play up even further. He's a bit farther off than Graterol, but his ceiling is just as high and he could be a top of the rotation guy in the not too distant future, so long as he stays healthy. His background growing up in Canada certainly doesn't hurt when it comes to pitching in cold weather in Minneapolis.
- Griffin Jax (2020 Age: 25): Jax was a standout at the Air Force Academy and was drafted in the third round in 2016, and in 2019 he posted a 2.90 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.1 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Rochester. Jax won't blow you away with his stuff, sitting in the low 90's with a sinking fastball and adding a slider and a changeup, using the latter to get most of his strikeouts. Where he does excel is with his command, which makes all of his stuff play up, and his Air Force background really shows on the mound with his competitiveness and work ethic. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other guys on this list, but he could fight for a #4 or #5 starter role in the near future. If the stuff turns out to be too light, he could excel as a long reliever.
- Jhoan Duran (2020 Age: 22): Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, Duran came over in the Eduardo Escobar trade in 2018 and in 2019, he posted a 3.76 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 136/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. For him, it's all about velocity. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and consistently touches higher, and he can morph that fastball into a low 90's splitter that is difficult to square up. He also throws an inconsistent curveball with slider velocity, one that can get some really good depth on it when it's going right but which can flatten out at times. His changeup is a work in progress but because of his splitter, he won't need to lean heavily on it. Most guys with this profile have trouble throwing strikes, but Duran has done a good job on that front and has kept his walks down to the point where they're not hurting him. Whether he starts or relieves long term likely depends on maintaining and slightly refining his command as well as getting a bit more consistent with that curveball. If he can do those two things, he'll be a mid-rotation starter, and if not, he'll be a power reliever.
- Cole Sands (2020 Age: 22-23): Sands has always been talented, but he's also always been inconsistent and an up and down career at Florida State dropped him to the fifth round in 2018. After not pitching in pro ball that year due to minor biceps problems, he broke out in 2019 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 108/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids, High A Fort Myers, and AA Pensacola. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and he's gotten more consistent with his slurvy curveball and his changeup. Most importantly, he's also gotten much more consistent with his command, and what was really a guessing game in college turned into a strength in pro ball. Overall, he looks like a #4 or #5 starter for now, but if he continues on his current trajectory and sharpens that curveball a bit more, he could outplay that and become a #3.
- Bailey Ober (2020 Age: 24-25): Ober has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but in 2019, he finally broke out with a ridiculous 0.69 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 100/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings at High A Fort Myers, AA Pensacola, and some complex level rehab work. He stands a towering 6'9" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a fairly ordinary set of a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. However, his size helps him get a ton of extension towards the plate and the ball gets on hitters really quick, so when that's coupled with very good command, it's almost like he's reaching out and just placing the ball in the catcher's glove on the corners. Except that he's not placing it, he's throwing 93 with rise. There's no question that he's talented enough to be somewhere between a #3 and a #5 starter, but the problem has been health. He missed a lot of time at the College of Charleston with Tommy John surgery, and his elbow has continued to bother him in pro ball even post-surgery. Make sure to watch his health going forward, but he could be a very good reliever even if he's not durable enough for the rotation.
- Blayne Enlow (2020 Age: 21): Enlow, an over slot third round pick out of a Baton Rouge-area high school in 2017, hasn't quite put it together yet but he has pitched quite well, and in 2019 he had a 3.82 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 95/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.2 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. He's still more or less the same pitcher he was in high school, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding an inconsistent curveball that flashes plus as well as an average changeup with workable command. The one big difference in pro ball is that he's added a slider, though he's still working on refining it. 2016 draftee Jordan Balazovic had a huge breakout in 2019, and the Twins are hoping that 2020 will be Enlow's year. At 6'3", we've envisioned more velocity for years now, and while he hasn't taken that overall step forward, he still turns just 21 in spring training and has plenty of time to figure it out.
- Chris Vallimont (2020 Age: 23): Vallimont went to the Marlins in the fifth round in 2018 out of Mercyhurst College in Pennsylvania, then was traded to the Twins in the Sergio Romo/Lewin Diaz deal. Between the two organizations in 2019, he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 150/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.2 innings between Class A and High A, a really nice transition for a kid coming up from Division II. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries, but while his command was shaky in college, it took a step forward in pro ball and that was the difference. If Vallimont can maintain the strides he's made with that command, he'll be able to focus on sharpening his offspeed stuff and working towards becoming a #4 or #5 starter.
- Matt Canterino (2020 Age: 22): Canterino was a second round pick out of Rice in 2019, and he went on to have a very successful pro debut with a 1.44 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at Class A Cedar Rapids. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds two very good, distinct breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup he's still figuring out. His delivery comes with a lot of moving parts, but he has great body control and throws consistent strikes, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the changeup. If he can stay healthy and develop that changeup, he has a very good chance to be a #3 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Charlie Barnes, Tyler Wells, Tyler Watson, Luis Rijo, Tanner Brubaker, Cody Laweryson, Landon Leach
Relief Pitching
- Jorge Alcala (2020 Age: 24-25): Alcala was another one of those random arms the Astros found and developed out of nowhere, and they shipped their former $10,000 signing to the Twins in the Ryan Pressly deal in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 5.47 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 116/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.1 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Rochester, then earned a brief MLB call up and threw 1.2 shutout innings with a strikeout, a walk, and a hit allowed. Alcala is known for his arm, as he produces mid to upper 90's fastballs that rival those of Brusdar Graterol and Jhoan Duran, adding a full set of power secondary pitches. He can flash a plus breaking ball at times, though he also struggles to stay on top of his curve, making the slider the more consistent of the two. The command actually plays closer to average, but given the inconsistency of his secondary stuff, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he can drop a breaking ball and focus on really sharpening the other one. If the Twins decide to go that bullpen route, he could break camp with the team.
- Edwar Colina (2020 Age: 22-23): Colina is another power arm, one who also likely fits better in the bullpen than the rotation. In 2019, he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 102/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings at High A Fort Myers, AA Pensacola, and AAA Rochester, blowing away minor league hitters with his power stuff. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which has some hard arm side run, and adds a hard slider that misses bats as well. It breaks a bit early out of his hand and major league hitters will likely be able to pick it up a bit better than minor league hitters, but it should play up once he switches to the bullpen and starts sitting in the upper 90's with that fastball. His command, on the other hand, is a bit fringier than that of Graterol, Duran, and Alcala, and the other three are probably safer bets at this point.
- Tom Hackimer (2020 Age: 25-26): Hackimer was a fourth round pick out of St. John's in 2016, and aside from a tough 2018, he's dominated the minors so far. In 2019, he posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 75/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. He's a righty sidearmer who doesn't throw overly hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball, but he gets good run on it and the low arm slot obviously makes it play up. He adds a slider and a changeup, neither of which stands out as plus, though it is a good changeup for a reliever with some nice diving action. Combined with some decent strike throwing ability, Hackimer has the chance to be a useful middle reliever in the near future.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Neff, Casey Legumina
Showing posts with label Keoni Cavaco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Keoni Cavaco. Show all posts
Friday, January 17, 2020
Thursday, July 4, 2019
MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins
First five rounds: Keoni Cavaco (1-13), Matt Wallner (CBA-39), Matt Canterino (2-54), Spencer Steer (3-90), Seth Gray (4-119), Will Holland (5-149)
Also notable: Anthony Prato (7-209), Casey Legumina (8-239), Tanner Brubaker (11-329)
This was a position player-heavy draft early on for the Twins, as five of their first six picks and six of their first eight swing the bat. They transitioned to pitchers later on, taking 15 pitchers with their next 16 picks from the eighth through 23rd rounds. Overall, I think the Twins got a really nice talent pool here, grabbing some upside with guys like Keoni Cavaco, Will Holland, and Casey Legumina while also getting a couple of safer-bet impact guys like Matt Wallner and Matt Canterino. Cavaco has some holes in his game but he has the chance to turn into a franchise player if things go well, and Wallner and Canterino should be solid contributors in the not-too-distant future in Minneapolis.
1-13: SS Keoni Cavaco (Eastlake HS [CA], my rank: 26)
Keoni Cavaco, armed with arguably the coolest name in the upper portion of the 2019 draft (with apologies to Nasim Nunez, Kyren Paris, and Drey Jameson), had serious helium coming into the draft. Nobody had heard of the San Diego-area high schooler last summer, and it took until the season started in the spring for him to get his name even in the conversation for the first round. However, he played well and teams reportedly came away very impressed by his private workouts, and as the draft approached, he had pushed himself firmly into the middle of the first round. The Twins pounced on Cavaco with the 13th overall pick, and he comes with some of the best upside in the class. Cavaco stands 6'2" and hits the ball with authority, using his big right handed swing and quick hands to produce well above average power that will only improve with time. His hit tool leaves some to be desired, and part of that stems from his big swing, but he is strong enough that the Twins can tone him down a bit and still get 20-30 home runs out of him annually, if not more. Defensively, Cavaco shows a cannon arm, but as he grows, third base will probably be his end destination, where his arm will make him above average. He signed away from San Diego State for $4.05 million, which was $150,000 below slot, and he is slashing .222/.222/.333 with four strikeouts to no walks over his first five games in the complex-level Gulf Coast League.
CBA-39: OF Matt Wallner (Southern Mississippi, my rank: 56)
Twins fans, don't be fooled by the fact that Matt Wallner attended Southern Miss; he's a born and raised Minnesotan from Forest Lake, about 25 miles north of St. Paul. Wallner was a two-way player for the Golden Eagles and was heavily scouted as a pitcher as well, but he hurt his arm in 2019 and made it clear that he preferred to hit, anyways. He has put up some mind boggling numbers in Hattiesburg, this year slashing .323/.446/.681 with 23 home runs and a 50/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, giving him a total of 58 home runs for his career, 190 RBI, and a .337/.460/.652 slash line over 189 games in all. He's a big, 6'5", left handed power hitter who can absolutely crank a baseball if he gets into one, though there are questions about his hit tool despite the gaudy numbers. Wallner slashed a decent but uninspiring .250/.343/.417 with four home runs and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League this past summer, and his long swing led to a 17.5% strikeout rate against the average pitching he faced as part of the Conference-USA this year. That rate isn't crazy high and it's supplemented by his 16.8% walk rate, but it's enough to give some pause given that there is some length to his swing and that he doesn't have the world's quickest bat. On the bright side, he was heating up as the season went on. Defensively, he's not fast at all but he has a very strong arm, so he profiles as a right fielder. Wallner signed for $1.8 million, which was $110,000 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.397/.400 with one home run and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 12 games at rookie level Elizabethton.
2-54: RHP Matt Canterino (Rice, my rank: 37)
For the second straight pick, the Twins grabbed a Matt out of the C-USA, this time taking Rice ace Matt Canterino in the second round. The Dallas/Fort Worth-area native had a big year for the Owls, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 121/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings. Canterino is an interesting study, as he's a 6'2" right hander who uses his long arms and a delivery with lots of moving parts to generate low 90's fastballs and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, with his changeup lagging behind. Despite the fairly wild delivery, he actually has pretty good command, and a pitcher who can land three above average pitches in the zone for strikes has a good prognosis for future success. He's not a lock to stay in the rotation, though, because although he has remained durable at Rice and has thrown 289.1 innings over three seasons (with 348 strikeouts), it remains to be seen how his delivery will work starting every fifth day. For now, he projects as a mid-rotation starter, and if he can prove his durability at the next level, it's hard to see him as anything less than a #5 starter. Canterino signed for $1.1 million, which was $240,000 below slot.
3-90: SS Spencer Steer (Oregon, unranked)
Spencer Steer is a high-floor, utility infielder type with a chance for more. The Southern California native slashed .349/.456/.502 with six home runs and a 33/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for Oregon, showing a broad skill set that should translate up to the next level. He also had a great summer on the Cape, where he out-hit Wallner by slashing .304/.351/.481 with five home runs and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. Steer has good feel to hit as well as an advanced approach, which has enabled him to start all three years for the Ducks, and it's why he's having no trouble so far in his transition to the low minors. Standing 5'11" and without much power, Steer's ceiling is limited, but he has a chance to hit his way up and post strong on-base percentages in the major leagues. Defensively, he spent his time with Oregon playing second and third base, but he was extremely good there and may be able to handle shortstop in pro ball, which would boost his value. He signed for $575,000, which was $82,600 below slot, and he's off to a scorching start at Elizabethton where he is again out-hitting Wallner by slashing .333/.444/.556 with a pair of home runs and a great 3/8 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 11 games.
4-119: 3B Seth Gray (Wright State, unranked)
After two years of solid but unspectacular numbers at Wright State in Dayton, Ohio, Gray held his own but failed to make a big impression in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he slashed .246/.340/.333 with one home run and a 25/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games. Then he got back to campus and put up a huge junior season, slashing .351/.483/.630 with 11 home runs and a 44/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against mediocre competition in the Horizon League, pushing himself into early Day Two discussion. Gray, who grew up just outside of Lima, Ohio, has some nice loft in his left handed swing and finally began to tap into it in 2019, also cutting down his strikeouts a hair while bumping up his walk rate significantly. He's a strong guy at 6'3", and while he doesn't have the quick twitch athleticism or huge raw power of most of the other guys in this draft range, he has a good feel for the game and plays above his tools. That enables him to be very good at third base despite below average speed. His outlook at this point is that of a bench or platoon bat, but if he transitions well to pro ball, he could outplay that and be a starting third baseman with 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. Gray signed at slot for $483,000, and he's slashing .244/.401/.341 with one home run and a 9/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 11 games with Wallner and Steer at Elizabethton.
5-149: SS Will Holland (Auburn, my rank: 73)
The Twins saved about $582,000 on their first three picks, so they used some of that money to go overslot and grab one of the bigger fallers in the 2019 college group. Will Holland entered the 2019 season as a potential first round pick after slashing .313/.406/.530 as a sophomore at Auburn and .341/.431/.432 in a brief, 13 game stint in the Cape Cod League, but instead he came out of the gate ice cold and saw his stock drop significantly. The Atlanta-area native widened his stance this year and his swing got longer, and while he started to pick back up a little later in the season, he still finished the year with just a .246/.376/.401 line, nine home runs, and a 62/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games while playing in the SEC. He's very athletic, and when you watch him play, he looks like a big leaguer even at 5'10" because of his quick hands and smooth actions on both sides of the ball. However, he's also fairly raw around most of his game and that was exposed this year, as his plate discipline is so-so and he struck out in 21.8% of his at bats this year. Holland is fast and stole 15 bases this season, and I think he still has the upside as a starting shortstop with a little luck. He's a solid defender and will stick at shortstop, taking some pressure off his bat, though ultimately he's going to have to get back to his sophomore form if he wants to work his way up and play every day in the big leagues. At best, Holland profiles as a guy who could hit 15-20 home runs with solid on-base percentages in the majors, but he has some work to do to get there. He took the same signing bonus as Steer at $575,000, which was $214,200 above slot in this case, and he's slashing .143/.143/.357 with one home run and a 9/0 strikeout to walk ratio over his first three games at Elizabethton.
7-209: SS Anthony Prato (Connecticut, unranked)
Anthony Prato is a contact hitter up at UConn, and he brings a fairly straightforward scouting report to the table. The Brooklyn native slashed .324/.441/.430 with three home runs and a 24/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games for the Huskies this season, showing excellent bat to ball skills, strong plate discipline, and little in the way of power. He's a stocky 5'10" and is very content in using his quick swing to just poke line drives around the field, and he draws plenty of walks to give him a high on-base percentage. He won't stick at shortstop and profiles better at second base, and he has a chance to hit his way up as a utility infielder who can get on base consistently. Prato signed for $274,800, which was $59,900 above slot and actually the exact slot value for the Twins' sixth round pick, and he's slashing a solid .324/.368/.471 with a home run and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his first nine games at Elizabethton.
8-239: RHP Casey Legumina (Gonzaga, unranked)
Casey Legumina was very good out of the Gonzaga bullpen as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2018, when he posted a 2.77 ERA and a 52/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings, but he elected to return to school, where he would transition to the rotation. He made a brief but solid run through the Cape Cod League (9 IP, 1 R [0 ER], 9 K, 1 BB) and got off to a strong start in the Zags' rotation this year, posting a 1.50 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 29/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings. However, he went down with a forearm injury and didn't pitch the rest of the season, so it's a bit hard to project him. The Phoenix-area native sits in the low 90's and adds a good breaking ball and a changeup, and his delivery and command are both solid. However, he's unproven as a starter and the injury doesn't help things, so it remains to be seen whether he tries to fight his way up as a potential #4 starter or if he gets moved to the bullpen, where he could be a solid seventh or eighth inning guy. Legumina turned 22 in June, making him old for a junior. He signed for $250,000, which was $78,000 above slot.
11-329: RHP Tanner Brubaker (UC Irvine, unranked)
Brubaker transferred from California Baptist University to Saddleback JC for his sophomore season, pitched great, and transferred to UC Irvine for his junior year. The Southern California native had a good year for the Anteaters, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 innings, albeit with a pitcher-friendly home park. Brubaker stands 6'5" with a strong build, and he can sit in the low 90's with his fastball and add a curveball and a changeup. None of his pitches really generate swings and misses, but he has good command for somebody so big and and the Twins hope they can smooth out his mechanics a bit to sharpen his stuff, in which case he could be a back-end starter. On the plus side, he only turned 21 in June, making him relatively young for a junior and a full year younger than Legumina. He signed for $200,000, which counts for $75,000 against the Twins' bonus pool.
Also notable: Anthony Prato (7-209), Casey Legumina (8-239), Tanner Brubaker (11-329)
This was a position player-heavy draft early on for the Twins, as five of their first six picks and six of their first eight swing the bat. They transitioned to pitchers later on, taking 15 pitchers with their next 16 picks from the eighth through 23rd rounds. Overall, I think the Twins got a really nice talent pool here, grabbing some upside with guys like Keoni Cavaco, Will Holland, and Casey Legumina while also getting a couple of safer-bet impact guys like Matt Wallner and Matt Canterino. Cavaco has some holes in his game but he has the chance to turn into a franchise player if things go well, and Wallner and Canterino should be solid contributors in the not-too-distant future in Minneapolis.
1-13: SS Keoni Cavaco (Eastlake HS [CA], my rank: 26)
Keoni Cavaco, armed with arguably the coolest name in the upper portion of the 2019 draft (with apologies to Nasim Nunez, Kyren Paris, and Drey Jameson), had serious helium coming into the draft. Nobody had heard of the San Diego-area high schooler last summer, and it took until the season started in the spring for him to get his name even in the conversation for the first round. However, he played well and teams reportedly came away very impressed by his private workouts, and as the draft approached, he had pushed himself firmly into the middle of the first round. The Twins pounced on Cavaco with the 13th overall pick, and he comes with some of the best upside in the class. Cavaco stands 6'2" and hits the ball with authority, using his big right handed swing and quick hands to produce well above average power that will only improve with time. His hit tool leaves some to be desired, and part of that stems from his big swing, but he is strong enough that the Twins can tone him down a bit and still get 20-30 home runs out of him annually, if not more. Defensively, Cavaco shows a cannon arm, but as he grows, third base will probably be his end destination, where his arm will make him above average. He signed away from San Diego State for $4.05 million, which was $150,000 below slot, and he is slashing .222/.222/.333 with four strikeouts to no walks over his first five games in the complex-level Gulf Coast League.
CBA-39: OF Matt Wallner (Southern Mississippi, my rank: 56)
Twins fans, don't be fooled by the fact that Matt Wallner attended Southern Miss; he's a born and raised Minnesotan from Forest Lake, about 25 miles north of St. Paul. Wallner was a two-way player for the Golden Eagles and was heavily scouted as a pitcher as well, but he hurt his arm in 2019 and made it clear that he preferred to hit, anyways. He has put up some mind boggling numbers in Hattiesburg, this year slashing .323/.446/.681 with 23 home runs and a 50/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, giving him a total of 58 home runs for his career, 190 RBI, and a .337/.460/.652 slash line over 189 games in all. He's a big, 6'5", left handed power hitter who can absolutely crank a baseball if he gets into one, though there are questions about his hit tool despite the gaudy numbers. Wallner slashed a decent but uninspiring .250/.343/.417 with four home runs and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League this past summer, and his long swing led to a 17.5% strikeout rate against the average pitching he faced as part of the Conference-USA this year. That rate isn't crazy high and it's supplemented by his 16.8% walk rate, but it's enough to give some pause given that there is some length to his swing and that he doesn't have the world's quickest bat. On the bright side, he was heating up as the season went on. Defensively, he's not fast at all but he has a very strong arm, so he profiles as a right fielder. Wallner signed for $1.8 million, which was $110,000 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.397/.400 with one home run and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 12 games at rookie level Elizabethton.
2-54: RHP Matt Canterino (Rice, my rank: 37)
For the second straight pick, the Twins grabbed a Matt out of the C-USA, this time taking Rice ace Matt Canterino in the second round. The Dallas/Fort Worth-area native had a big year for the Owls, posting a 2.81 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 121/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.1 innings. Canterino is an interesting study, as he's a 6'2" right hander who uses his long arms and a delivery with lots of moving parts to generate low 90's fastballs and two very good breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, with his changeup lagging behind. Despite the fairly wild delivery, he actually has pretty good command, and a pitcher who can land three above average pitches in the zone for strikes has a good prognosis for future success. He's not a lock to stay in the rotation, though, because although he has remained durable at Rice and has thrown 289.1 innings over three seasons (with 348 strikeouts), it remains to be seen how his delivery will work starting every fifth day. For now, he projects as a mid-rotation starter, and if he can prove his durability at the next level, it's hard to see him as anything less than a #5 starter. Canterino signed for $1.1 million, which was $240,000 below slot.
3-90: SS Spencer Steer (Oregon, unranked)
Spencer Steer is a high-floor, utility infielder type with a chance for more. The Southern California native slashed .349/.456/.502 with six home runs and a 33/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for Oregon, showing a broad skill set that should translate up to the next level. He also had a great summer on the Cape, where he out-hit Wallner by slashing .304/.351/.481 with five home runs and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. Steer has good feel to hit as well as an advanced approach, which has enabled him to start all three years for the Ducks, and it's why he's having no trouble so far in his transition to the low minors. Standing 5'11" and without much power, Steer's ceiling is limited, but he has a chance to hit his way up and post strong on-base percentages in the major leagues. Defensively, he spent his time with Oregon playing second and third base, but he was extremely good there and may be able to handle shortstop in pro ball, which would boost his value. He signed for $575,000, which was $82,600 below slot, and he's off to a scorching start at Elizabethton where he is again out-hitting Wallner by slashing .333/.444/.556 with a pair of home runs and a great 3/8 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 11 games.
4-119: 3B Seth Gray (Wright State, unranked)
After two years of solid but unspectacular numbers at Wright State in Dayton, Ohio, Gray held his own but failed to make a big impression in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he slashed .246/.340/.333 with one home run and a 25/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games. Then he got back to campus and put up a huge junior season, slashing .351/.483/.630 with 11 home runs and a 44/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against mediocre competition in the Horizon League, pushing himself into early Day Two discussion. Gray, who grew up just outside of Lima, Ohio, has some nice loft in his left handed swing and finally began to tap into it in 2019, also cutting down his strikeouts a hair while bumping up his walk rate significantly. He's a strong guy at 6'3", and while he doesn't have the quick twitch athleticism or huge raw power of most of the other guys in this draft range, he has a good feel for the game and plays above his tools. That enables him to be very good at third base despite below average speed. His outlook at this point is that of a bench or platoon bat, but if he transitions well to pro ball, he could outplay that and be a starting third baseman with 15-20 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages. Gray signed at slot for $483,000, and he's slashing .244/.401/.341 with one home run and a 9/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 11 games with Wallner and Steer at Elizabethton.
5-149: SS Will Holland (Auburn, my rank: 73)
The Twins saved about $582,000 on their first three picks, so they used some of that money to go overslot and grab one of the bigger fallers in the 2019 college group. Will Holland entered the 2019 season as a potential first round pick after slashing .313/.406/.530 as a sophomore at Auburn and .341/.431/.432 in a brief, 13 game stint in the Cape Cod League, but instead he came out of the gate ice cold and saw his stock drop significantly. The Atlanta-area native widened his stance this year and his swing got longer, and while he started to pick back up a little later in the season, he still finished the year with just a .246/.376/.401 line, nine home runs, and a 62/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games while playing in the SEC. He's very athletic, and when you watch him play, he looks like a big leaguer even at 5'10" because of his quick hands and smooth actions on both sides of the ball. However, he's also fairly raw around most of his game and that was exposed this year, as his plate discipline is so-so and he struck out in 21.8% of his at bats this year. Holland is fast and stole 15 bases this season, and I think he still has the upside as a starting shortstop with a little luck. He's a solid defender and will stick at shortstop, taking some pressure off his bat, though ultimately he's going to have to get back to his sophomore form if he wants to work his way up and play every day in the big leagues. At best, Holland profiles as a guy who could hit 15-20 home runs with solid on-base percentages in the majors, but he has some work to do to get there. He took the same signing bonus as Steer at $575,000, which was $214,200 above slot in this case, and he's slashing .143/.143/.357 with one home run and a 9/0 strikeout to walk ratio over his first three games at Elizabethton.
7-209: SS Anthony Prato (Connecticut, unranked)
Anthony Prato is a contact hitter up at UConn, and he brings a fairly straightforward scouting report to the table. The Brooklyn native slashed .324/.441/.430 with three home runs and a 24/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games for the Huskies this season, showing excellent bat to ball skills, strong plate discipline, and little in the way of power. He's a stocky 5'10" and is very content in using his quick swing to just poke line drives around the field, and he draws plenty of walks to give him a high on-base percentage. He won't stick at shortstop and profiles better at second base, and he has a chance to hit his way up as a utility infielder who can get on base consistently. Prato signed for $274,800, which was $59,900 above slot and actually the exact slot value for the Twins' sixth round pick, and he's slashing a solid .324/.368/.471 with a home run and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his first nine games at Elizabethton.
8-239: RHP Casey Legumina (Gonzaga, unranked)
Casey Legumina was very good out of the Gonzaga bullpen as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2018, when he posted a 2.77 ERA and a 52/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings, but he elected to return to school, where he would transition to the rotation. He made a brief but solid run through the Cape Cod League (9 IP, 1 R [0 ER], 9 K, 1 BB) and got off to a strong start in the Zags' rotation this year, posting a 1.50 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 29/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings. However, he went down with a forearm injury and didn't pitch the rest of the season, so it's a bit hard to project him. The Phoenix-area native sits in the low 90's and adds a good breaking ball and a changeup, and his delivery and command are both solid. However, he's unproven as a starter and the injury doesn't help things, so it remains to be seen whether he tries to fight his way up as a potential #4 starter or if he gets moved to the bullpen, where he could be a solid seventh or eighth inning guy. Legumina turned 22 in June, making him old for a junior. He signed for $250,000, which was $78,000 above slot.
11-329: RHP Tanner Brubaker (UC Irvine, unranked)
Brubaker transferred from California Baptist University to Saddleback JC for his sophomore season, pitched great, and transferred to UC Irvine for his junior year. The Southern California native had a good year for the Anteaters, posting a 2.99 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 innings, albeit with a pitcher-friendly home park. Brubaker stands 6'5" with a strong build, and he can sit in the low 90's with his fastball and add a curveball and a changeup. None of his pitches really generate swings and misses, but he has good command for somebody so big and and the Twins hope they can smooth out his mechanics a bit to sharpen his stuff, in which case he could be a back-end starter. On the plus side, he only turned 21 in June, making him relatively young for a junior and a full year younger than Legumina. He signed for $200,000, which counts for $75,000 against the Twins' bonus pool.
Saturday, May 18, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Third Basemen
There aren't any top-flight third basemen available, but once you dip into the middle/back of the first round and into the second and third, lots of options begin to emerge, especially on the college side. Some of these guys might need to move to first base long term (plus Tyler Callihan, who was included in the first base section), where pressure would rise on their bats, but all have at least a solid shot at sticking there. Most of these guys are power over hit, though Josh Jung and some of the third tier guys are notable exceptions to that.
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
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