As has been the case for a few years, the Yankees' system is much deeper in pitching than in hitting. They have starting and relief pitching prospects up and down the system, especially from their successful work in the international market, and guys like Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Miguel Yajure, Clarke Schmidt, Roansy Contreras, and Alexander Vizcaino all see their stock rapidly on the rise. They've worked hard to try to develop some hitting, though guys like Estevan Florial, Anthony Seigler, Everson Pereira, and Anthony Garcia saw their progress stall a bit in 2019. Fortunately, they did get a breakout from Canaan Smith, and I also see Oswald Peraza as a sleeper, so there are at least a few interesting bats out there. Oh yeah, and we're all on the edge of our seats to see what superstar international signee Jasson Dominguez can do.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, short season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Catcher
- Josh Breaux (2020 Age: 22): The second of back to back catchers selected by the Yankees in the 2018 draft, Breaux went to in the second round out of McLennan Community College in Texas. He hit well in his first full season in 2019, slashing .271/.324/.518 with 13 home runs and a 59/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at Class A Charleston, though he missed a big chunk of the season with an elbow injury. He comes with both big power and big swing and miss, though fortunately the strikeouts weren't an issue this year and the power played up. The higher levels will still be a test for his bat, but I think he's hit his way into being a legitimate prospect. Now defensively, he's still got some work to do, as he's talented but he remains erratic behind the plate. If he has to move to first base, his bat could still profile in a reserve role, but he probably has to figure out a way to stick as a catcher if he wants to start.
- Anthony Seigler (2020 Age: 20-21): Seigler is still the better prospect to Breaux, but while Breaux's 2019 was a step in the right direction, Seigler's very much was not. After being drafted in the first round out of Cartersville High School outside Atlanta, where he was the second best athlete in his graduating class behind Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Seigler slashed just .175/.328/.206 with a 28/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games at Class A Charleston before taking a fastball off his knee, ending his season in July. He's combines great athleticism with advanced feel for the game, and even as he struggled to make quality contact in his 30 games with Charleston, he showed good knowledge of the strike zone for a 20 year old in Class A. High school catchers are risky, and Seigler might take longer to develop than originally expected, but with his athleticism and feel for the barrel, he could still be a starting catcher with high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season if he gets it figured out. His defense is far superior to Breaux's and he should be above average back there.
- Keep an eye on: Antonio Gomez
Corner Infield
- Chris Gittens (2020 Age: 26): The Yankees are really shallow at first and third base, so a guy like Chris Gittens stands out after a huge 2019 where he slashed .281/.393/.500 with 23 home runs and a 139/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Trenton. He has plenty of power in his 6'4" frame, which he got to consistently in 2019 in part because he's willing to wait to get a good pitch to drive. That patient approach comes with a lot of strikeouts, and he probably won't ever hit enough to start every day in the majors, but he did smoke left handed pitchers to a .313/.442/.634 line, 13 home runs, and a 40/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 2019 (versus .265/.367/.432 against righties). With that skill, he could be able to carve out a platoon role as a right handed power hitting 1B/DH against left handed pitchers.
- Mickey Gasper (2020 Age: 24): Gasper is another guy who sticks out because of the lack of corner infield depth in this system. A 27th round pick out of Bryant in 2018, he hit .251/.356/.393 with ten home runs and a 79/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa in 2019. He actually hit better after his promotion, jumping from .233/.347/.375 to .321/.393/.462. He has a very strong feel for the strike zone and is able to recognize strikes from balls as well as anyone in the system, and that helps his otherwise average offensive tools play up. He doesn't hit for enough power to ever start regularly at first base, but as a switch hitter whose skills should play up at the higher levels, he could be a useful bench bat down the line.
- Keep an eye on: Mandy Alvarez, Spencer Henson
Middle Infield
- Hoy Jun Park (2020 Age: 24): Most of the Yankees' middle infield talent is lower down in the minors, so Park (along with Kyle Holder) stands out in the upper levels. Signed for $1 million out of South Korea way back in 2014, Park has lost some of his prospect luster after his bat failed to really materialize, but he still has a shot at being a utility infielder in the near future. Park in 2019 slashed .272/.363/.370 with three home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 91/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Trenton, showing good plate discipline with a scrappy approach at the plate. He shows good speed and defense at shortstop, which at this point will be his ticket to the major leagues, though he projects to be a bit of a light hitter who might post solid on-base percentages but not much power.
- Josh Smith (2020 Age: 22-23): Smith was a second round pick out of LSU in 2019, and his strong pro debut saw him slash .324/.450/.477 with three home runs, six stolen bases, and a 17/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games at short season Staten Island. Smith actually posted similar numbers in Baton Rouge, and I expected them to take a slight hit once he switched to wood bats/pro pitching, but at least for his first 33 games, that hasn't been the case. Though he has a line drive swing, he has great feel for the barrel and hits the ball hard all over the park, and he showed more patience than expected in his pro debut, which could impact his stock in a real way if he maintains that next year. Currently a shortstop, he probably fits better over at second base, but he could be a really valuable utility infielder who can post high on-base percentages with decent pop or even a starter if he does indeed build off his success so far.
- Oswald Peraza (2020 Age: 19-20): Peraza is a real sleeper prospect, one who doesn't have loud tools but who has a real shot to be not just a utility man, but a potential starter for the Yankees down the road. The Venezuelan product had a small breakout in 2019, slashing .263/.332/.340 with four home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 37/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at short season Staten Island and Class A Charleston, and like Mickey Gasper, he actually hit better after the promotion (.273/.348/.333) than before it (.241/.294/.354). Just 19 years old, Peraza has a very quick bat and excellent feel for putting the ball in play, as he struck out in just 12.6% of his plate appearances this year. He hasn't quite hit for a ton of impact yet, and that for now projects him as a slick fielding utility infielder, but I think he may be able to unlock some moderate power and hit about ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and good speed, which could mean starting shortstop if things break right for him. He turns 20 in June, by which time he could already be established at High A.
- Anthony Volpe (2020 Age: 19): A local product out of the Delbarton School in Morristown, New Jersey, Volpe was one of the more interesting players in this year's draft class. None of his tools stand out, but he endeared himself to scouts with his exceptionally scrappy playing style, his excellent work ethic, and his leadership qualities, combined with the ability to just play baseball. Despite a strong commitment to Vanderbilt, the Yankees wooed him away from Nashville at the end of the first round and sent him to the Appalachian League. His pro debut by the numbers was fairly underwhelming, as he slashed .215/.349/.355 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games at rookie level Pulaski, but that was a moderately aggressive assignment anyways for a high schooler. Though he lacks much over the fence power and probably won't ever develop too much, he can work counts and barrel the ball up well for someone his age and he plays good infield defense, maybe not good enough for shortstop full time, but enough to be above average at second base.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Holder, Oswaldo Cabrera, Alexander Vargas
Outfield
- Estevan Florial (2020 Age: 22): Florial might be the best athlete in the system, as he's blessed with physical tools that help him on both sides of the ball. However, injuries have slowed his development somewhat, and in 2019 he slashed .237/.297/.383 with eight home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games at High A Tampa after returning from a broken wrist. Florial is an explosive hitter, one who can generate impressive batting practice displays and get the ball traveling when he barrels one up. However, his feel for the barrel is somewhat lacking, and on top of relatively high (albeit not overly concerning) strikeout rates, he hasn't been able to get to his power as often as perhaps he'd like. He'll play all of 2020 at 22 years old, which is still young for a player ready to take on the upper minors, but my guess is he'll require a full, healthy season at AA in order to figure himself out as a hitter. Fortunately, his physical tools play up elsewhere, as he's one of the best runners in the system capable of stealing 20 or more bases a year, and he's excellent in center field both with his range and his arm. That buys the bat time, and if it breaks right, he could hit 25-30 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages and great defense, an All Star ceiling, though there's a good chance he ends up more of a 15-20 homer guy with lower OBP's.
- Canaan Smith (2020 Age: 21): A fourth round pick out of a Dallas-area high school in Heath, Texas in 2017, Canaan Smith hit well in his pro debut (.289/.430/.422) in 2017 before slumping in his first full season in 2018 (.191/.281/.316). He was expected to take a little extra time to develop, and in 2019 he began to tap into his potential, slashing .307/.405/.465 with eleven home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 108/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Charleston. He initially struggled to make contact in the minors in part due to a lot of excess hand movement that delayed his bat getting to where it needed to go. In 2019, his hands looked noticeably quieter, and that enabled him to get his barrel into the zone much quicker and begin to use his leveraged swing and natural power to do damage. He also drew a lot of walks and kept his strikeouts reasonably down, and as he develops further, he could hit 20+ home runs per season with good on-base percentages. With his thicker build, he's not the best runner, but he has a strong arm and profiles well in right field.
- Jasson Dominguez (2020 Age: 17): Still just 16 years old, Dominguez has already been talked about as one of the greatest international prospects ever. He signed out of the Dominican Republic for $5.1 million on the basis of what can only be described as all-around exceptional play. He's only 5'10" but he has a ton of raw power, can get to it easily with great feel for hitting, and he's an exceptional athlete with big time speed and defense. Of course, I've never actually seen him play and all I have to go off of are a few Youtube videos and people's word, so I can say this; Dominguez looks like the real deal. His explosive athleticism enables him to do everything at a high level on the baseball field, and with ease. Now I also have to say this; Dominguez is far from a guarantee. I've seen this kind of praise heaped on a young teenager three before. 2010 first overall pick Bryce Harper signed a $330 million contract, 2015 international signee Yoan Moncada has established himself as a big league regular, and 2016 international signee Kevin Maitan is currently toiling away in the Angels system and it's pretty clear that he Maitan the player he was projected to be. Harper and Maitan represent two different extremes from the same starting point, and it goes to show that 16 and 17 year olds can never be sure things. That said, I'm really excited to see what Dominguez can do in 2020, where he'll play the whole season at 17 years old and he'll likely break into the complex level Gulf Coast League if not up to the rookie level Appalachian League, and his ceiling is that of an MVP.
- Jake Sanford (2020 Age: 22): Sanford came out of absolute nowhere, as he wasn't even recruited to play college baseball and ended up at tiny McCook Community College in Nebraska before managing to land a spot at Western Kentucky, where he promptly blossomed into one of the best hitters in the country and a third round pick of the New York Yankees. The Nova Scotia native did so by slashing a ridiculous .398/.483/.805 with 22 home runs in 56 games for the Hilltoppers, then after he was drafted, he hit .238/.289/.411 with eight home runs and an 81/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at short season Staten Island. Two things were immediately clear about Sanford in his debut; he has a ton of raw pop, which is evident in his batting practice displays as well as in games, and his plate discipline needs a lot of work. Sanford might not develop as quickly as the typical college bat, probably spending 2019 in Class A, but he does have plenty of upside and likely settles in as a power hitting fourth outfielder or platoon bat down the road.
- Everson Pereira (2020 Age: 19): The bad news is that 2019 was a lost season for Pereira, as he slashed just .171/.216/.257 with one home run and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games at short season Staten Island before hurting his ankle and missing the rest of the season. The good news is that he doesn't turn 19 until April, so he has plenty of time to make up for it. The first thing that sticks out to him is his feel for the game, as he already has a great understanding of the strike zone for his age and was already showing the ability to drive the ball to the gaps against older competition in 2018. He's also a natural defender in center field, one who should be able to stick there with his speed. At this point, he projects best as a contact hitting center fielder with a good approach, though at 18 years old he has a lot of time to develop into a number of different directions.
- Ryder Green (2020 Age: 19-20): Green was the Yankees' third round pick out of a Knoxville high school in 2018, and he spent his first full pro season slashing .262/.343/.444 with eight home runs and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Pulaski. Green is a bit raw as a hitter, and that's why he was held back in the Appalachian League for his first full season, but there is clear raw power from his quick left handed bat and natural strength. His swing mechanics can be inconsistent, but at his best, he can have a much shorter swing than many other young power hitters, and getting more consistent with that swing should be the breakthrough that enables him to start to rise through the minors as a power hitting right fielder. Green, at best, projects for 25-30 home runs per season and decent on-base percentages, of course with a lot of risk and a greater likelihood of becoming a fourth outfielder.
- Antonio Cabello (2020 Age: 19): Cabello signed for $1.35 million out of Venezuela back in 2017, then hit .321/.426/.555 as a 17 year old in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2018 to put himself firmly on the prospect map. 2019 wasn't quite as successful, as he dropped to .211/.280/.330 with three home runs and a 77/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Pulaski. He's a bit undersized at 5'10", but his explosive athleticism from the right side of the plate helps him drive the ball consistently while his good feel for the barrel helps him get to it. However, his swing does have some holes, and Appalachian League pitching found those holes in his 18 year old swing and that suppressed his production. He still has a high ceiling as an all-around, potential five tool guy, but he'll need to put in some work to get his swing in sync. He'll play all of 2020 at 19 years old with the chance to hit his way up to full season ball.
- Kevin Alcantara (2020 Age: 17-18): Alcantara won't turn 18 until July, and he has one of the highest ceilings in this system for players not named Dominguez. Signed for $1 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he was the youngest player in all of Minor League Baseball outside of the Dominican Summer League in 2019, and he slashed .255/.305/.360 with a home run and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in the DSL and in the Gulf Coast League. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate and was a bit overmatched in the GCL (.260/.289/.358, 27/3 K/BB), which is natural when you get there a few weeks before your 17th birthday, but the potential is clear. He stands 6'6" and has an explosive swing that could produce plus power once he fills out, and he moves well for his size, enabling him to play good outfield defense. Alcantara has a ceiling you can dream on, but since he's only 17 and a half years old, I won't speculate on any numbers.
- Keep an eye on: Trey Amburgey, Isaiah Gilliam, Brandon Lockridge, Josh Stowers, Anthony Garcia
Starting Pitching
- Deivi Garcia (2020 Age: 20-21): After signing for $200,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, Garcia has built his stock every year until now becoming the top pitching prospect in the Yankees system, if not the best prospect in the system overall. A year after he posted a 2.55 ERA and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over across three levels in 2018, he came back with another solid 2019, posting a 4.28 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 165/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings at High A Tampa, AA Trenton, and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He stands just 5'9", but he sits easily in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 97-98, and he gets good movement on it to. His best pitch is his curveball, a true knee-buckler that will be an out pitch in the majors, and he adds a rapidly improving changeup that now features nice drop to the arm side. Additionally, he's very young, only turning 21 in May, yet he already has great feel for pitching and his command is advanced for his age. He walked a few more batters in 2019 than he did in 2018, though part of that was just a product of facing high level hitting in AA and AAA. He still carries the risk inherent in his size, but if he can take one more step forward with his command and really lock down the zone, Garcia has ace potential and a very good chance to be at least a #3 starter. I just don't expect him to be immediately that good in the majors right out of the gate, and he'll probably need a little more seasoning at AAA.
- Michael King (2020 Age: 24-25): King, a Rhode Island native and Boston College product now pitching on the other side of the rivalry, had a fantastic 2018 in which he posted a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio across three levels, but his 2019 was slowed by elbow problems. He avoided Tommy John surgery and ended up with a 5.48 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 44/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between AA Trenton, AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, and rehab work, then tossed two shutout innings against the Rangers in his first and so far only big league appearance. He's much more about pitchability than pure stuff, and he sits in the low to mid 90's with a heavy, ground ball inducing fastball while adding a pair of breaking balls and a great changeup. He commands and mixes it all very well, which will enable it to play up in the majors. I honestly see a very narrow ceiling/floor combination, as he has a very good chance of ending up between a #3 and a #5 starter, with his most likely outcome splitting the difference at a #4 guy who is dependable day to day but who likely won't go out and spin complete game shutouts.
- Clarke Schmidt (2020 Age: 24): In the midst of a huge junior season at South Carolina in 2017, Schmidt went down with Tommy John surgery shortly before the draft but still landed with the Yankees in the first round. After missing the rest of the season, he got back on the mound for 23.1 innings in 2018 and finally came back mostly healthy in 2019. This year, he had a 3.47 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 102/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings at High A Tampa, AA Trenton, and complex level rehab, looking like the guy he was two years earlier. After Garcia, he might have the best combination of stuff and command in the system. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his sinking, running fastball that generates a ton of ground balls, but unlike a lot of other sinkerballers, he adds good secondary stuff in a tight, two-plane curveball and a changeup with some serious fade. As he moves farther from his surgery, I expect his stock to continue to rise, and I think he's as safe a bet as anyone in this system to be a #3 or #4 starter.
- Nick Nelson (2020 Age: 24): It remains to be seen whether Nelson can stick in the rotation, as 2019 was a step in the right direction but he has more work to do. This year, he had a 2.81 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 114/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings at High A Tampa, AA Trenton, and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre, spending most of his season at the middle level. He has a power arm on his 6'1" frame, helping him sit consistently in the mid 90's and touching higher, and he adds a whole host of secondary pitches that can miss bats at their best. However, he often struggles to command them, which limits their effectiveness. I think he deserves a chance to keep starting in 2020, to prove whether he can overcome the lack of command, as he has a shot to be a #4 guy. However, if he shifts to the bullpen, he could mix his power fastball with some of his better secondary pitches and possibly go multiple innings – sounds like a great opener to me.
- Miguel Yajure (2020 Age: 21-22): Yajure raised his stock perhaps more than any other pitching prospect in the Yankees system in 2019, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 133/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 138.2 innings at High A Tampa and AA Trenton. Nothing he throws is plus, but with his low to mid 90's fastball and full set of diverse secondary pitches which he commands very well, he keeps high level hitters off balance throughout the game. That bodes well for his stuff's ability to play up even at the big league level, as he's actually looked better with each promotion as he's learned more and more about his own game. He's probably an Anibal Sanchez-esque #3/#4 guy, one who can be consistent and reliable each start. Of course, we do need to see how his stuff plays against the juiced balls in AAA and the majors.
- Luis Gil (2020 Age: 21-22): Gil joined Yajure in having a huge breakout in 2019, posting a 2.72 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 123/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa (mostly at the lower level). He's most well known for his mid to upper 90's fastball, which was enough to overwhelm Class A hitters from his high arm slot, but he also adds a rapidly improving curveball that dives away from right handed hitters and should be ab out pitch at the major league level. The rest of his game needs some work, though, as he lacks much of a changeup and his command comes and goes. Set to turn 22 years old in June, he's an old prospect, but he's also not the youngest kid in A ball, and he'll likely need at least most of 2020 at High A. The upside is immense as a potential #2/#3 starter, but he needs work and could end up as a bat missing, power reliever.
- Roansy Contreras (2020 Age: 20): Contreras is one of the more interesting pitching prospects in the Yankees system. He spent 2019 at Class A at just 19 years old, posting a 3.33 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 113/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.1 innings. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and changeup, and unlike many pitchers his age, he has pretty good command, and it should be above average by the time he gets up to the majors. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other pitchers in this system like Garcia and Gil, but I think he has a good chance to develop into a #3 starter. He'll spend all of 2020 at 20 years old with the chance to tackle High A.
- Alexander Vizcaino (2020 Age: 22-23): Vizcaino, who signed for just $14,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, is a late bloomer who had a major breakout 2019, posting a 4.38 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 128/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa. His fastball has climbed up into the mid to upper 90's while his command has gone from decent to solid, and he adds an improving curveball and changeup as well. Vizcaino has the chance for three above average pitches and good command, though on the flip side, as a late bloomer, he was just a little old for Class A. Further improvement of his breaking ball could land him in the back of the Yankees rotation or as a fastball/changeup reliever.
- T.J. Sikkema (2020 Age: 21-22): Sikkema parlayed a dominant career at Missouri into a money-saving competitive balance selection to the Yankees, then posted a 0.84 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 13/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings at short season Staten Island. He doesn't throw all that hard, sitting just above 90 with his fastball while adding a good slider and a solid changeup, but the lefty has a bulldog mentality that enables him to go after hitters and make his stuff play up. The Yankees will hope to take that fire he brings to the mound continues continues to help him navigate pro lineups, and if he can improve his average command, he has a chance to be a back-end starter. More realistically, he should be a lefty set-up man that can pitch well under pressure.
- Yoendrys Gomez (2020 Age: 20): Gomez has been sneaking up prospect boards as a sleeper guy, and in 2019 he posted a 3.99 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings at rookie level Pulaski and Class A Charleston. Gomez has great stuff in a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup, and he's managed to improve his command to be close to average. He's got a lot of work to do in continuing to refine his stuff and hopefully getting that command firmly and consistently into the average range, though in a system deep in pitching, he might continue to go fairly unnoticed even with a strong run through Class A in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Garrett Whitlock, Jio Orozco, Nolan Martinez, Osiel Rodriguez
Relief Pitching
- Albert Abreu (2020 Age: 24): Abreu, acquired from the Astros in the Brian McCann trade after the 2016 season, continues to show power stuff but might not be cut out for starting at the major league level. In 2019, he had a 4.28 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 91/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at AA Trenton, showing a power fastball in the mid to upper 90's, a power curveball, and a fading changeup that can all miss bats. However, his command has stayed consistently below average throughout his career, and that's kept him from making the final leap into the major league rotation. He also topped out at 101.2 innings in 2016 as he's struggled with nagging injuries throughout his career, and I think he's best off in the bullpen at this point. There, his command might matter less and he can just focus on a few batters at a time, and his power stuff fits really well in that short-spurt kind of role. If I'm the Yankees, I'm shifting him over for 2020 and seeing if I can get him into the big league bullpen.
- Trevor Stephan (2020 Age: 24): Stephen, like Abreu, has been a starter up to this point, and he posted a 4.73 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 91/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings at High A Tampa and AA Trenton while being bothered by back problems in 2019. The former third round pick out of Arkansas in 2017 still has a chance to remain a starter if he returns fully healthy and more effective in 2020, but in a system so deep in starting pitching depth, his best path to the majors may be in the bullpen. The 6'5" righty has a crossfire delivery that delivers low to mid 90's fastballs from a deceptive angle, and he adds an improving slider and changeup. His command is average even with the lower arm angle, though I think his stuff could take a step forward if he switches to the bullpen and stops having to pace himself.
- Luis Medina (2020 Age: 20-21): Among the most uncomfortable at bats in the minors would probably be Luis Medina, a 6'1" right hander with electric stuff and no command. In 2019, he posted a 5.47 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and a 127/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.2 innings at Class A Charleston and High A Tampa, throwing as a starter for now. He sits comfortably in the upper 90's with his fastball and has hit as high as 102, and he drops in a tight, diving curveball that is nearly impossible to square up. Medina also comes in with a diving changeup that sits in the low 90's and is harder than a lot of fastballs, so hitters are really guessing whenever he throws. The problem is that he has no idea where most of his stuff is going, and at 19-20 years old in 2019, he still walked 14.9% of his opponents. The Yankees are working hard to get him at least close to the zone, because even with below average command he could be a useful major league starter, and if he can drop that walk rate below 10% he could be a #3 or #4 guy. For now, though, his most likely projection is as an electric reliever. Fortunately, he only turns 21 in May.
- Keep an eye on: Frank German, Glenn Otto, Aaron McGarity, Matt Sauer
Showing posts with label Anthony Seigler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anthony Seigler. Show all posts
Saturday, December 14, 2019
Thursday, September 19, 2019
2018 Draft: A Year Later
One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.
All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.
The Top Five Picks
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.
1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.
Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.
1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.
2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.
Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)
Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.
Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39, Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)
All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.
The Top Five Picks
1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.
1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.
1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.
1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.
Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.
1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.
1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.
2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.
Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)
Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.
1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.
Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39, Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)
Monday, December 17, 2018
Reviewing the New York Yankees Farm System
The Yankees' system isn't quite what it was just a few years ago, but they still have one of the better collections of arms in the minors. Per MLB.com, ten of their top twelve prospects and 17 of their top 23 are pitchers, with the Yankees doing especially well on the international market. Interestingly, every one of those pitchers is right handed. However, their core of hitters is very thin, especially behind top prospect Estevan Florial. This discrepancy between hitting and pitching depth probably makes the Yankees' system the most lopsided in baseball.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
Monday, June 11, 2018
2018 Draft Review: New York Yankees
First 5 rounds: Anthony Seigler (1-23), Josh Breaux (2-61), Ryder Green (3-97), Frank German (4-127), Brandon Lockridge (5-157)
Also notable: Daniel Bies (7-217), Kyle Gray (14-427), Alex Junior (19-577)
The Yankees went for upside here, grabbing two high schoolers and a JuCo bat in the first three rounds, and four of their first five picks were hitters. After that, they took six straight pitchers in rounds six through eleven, including five straight college arms. They have been very good at taking lesser-known pitchers and making solid prospects out of them, so it makes sense that they would lean pitcher heavy in the middle of the draft, and the hitters at the top will look to replenish a farm system that lacks impact bats after trades and the graduation of Gleyber Torres.
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (my rank: 44)
I'll start off by saying I don't like this pick. Seigler has plenty of upside both at the plate and behind it, but for the 23rd overall pick, there is a lot of risk here. Catchers are the toughest position to develop and often take the least linear path in terms of that development, so drafting a high schooler at the position is often a shot in the dark. That's why I a) prefer college catchers, who are further along in their development or b) taking more catchers later in the draft, hoping that one pans out. That said, Seigler is very athletic for a catcher (he switch hits AND switch pitches) and probably has a better chance than most high school catchers to continue on the trajectory he is on. There is no doubt about his talent, as he hits the ball hard from both sides of the plate with a good approach and some power to tap into. He's a good defender behind the plate, so he really does have a lot going for him. I just don't think he's worth the 23rd overall pick. If anybody is thinking about Gary Sanchez, don't be. If the Yankees think Seigler was the best talent available, they should go with him, because you never worry about position or need during the first round. They'll worry about Sanchez vs Seigler later. Seigler signed at slot for just over $2.8 million.
2-61: C Josh Breaux (my rank: 87)
Another pick, another catcher. Breaux has been dealing with some arm issues this year, so that was factored into his ranking for me, but if the Yankees liked his physical, then this isn't the worst pick, though I still think it's an overdraft. Breaux is a JuCo bat out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas who has absolutely mashed the pitching he has faced, including a .404/.532/.831 slash line with 18 home runs in 56 games. He does everything big, with a big, powerful swing as well as a big, powerful arm. The arm can actually reach 100 MPH on the mound, which will help his defensive value, and he'll need it because the rest of his catching game needs work. Back to the bat, there is a ton of power here, but he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts to tap into it. He's a high risk, high reward pick, though in a different way than Seigler. Again, don't worry about Gary Sanchez. Worst case scenario, the Yankees can trade Seigler and Breaux. He has not signed yet and slot value here is just over $1 million.
3-97: OF Ryder Green (my rank: 83)
Green will probably require more than the allotted $576,400 to sign, but the Yankees should save enough on their later picks to get him. He's a high school outfielder from the Knoxville, Tennessee area, one with a lot of strength who can drive balls all over the field with ease. He has a strong arm as well, one which should play well in right field. He is a bit raw at the plate though, understandable for a kid from East Tennessee, as his swing has a little bit more long-to-it, short-through-it than one would like, but that's why he fell to the third round. With some swing adjustments, he could be a 20 homer bat with pretty good defense in right field, and that's value. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
4-127: RHP Frank German (unranked)
German just finished up a dominant season at the University of North Florida, going 8-3 with a 1.58 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 108/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. The 6'2" starter should be able to remain a starter though the minors, as he has a smooth delivery, maintains his stuff throughout the game, and throws strikes. His fastball sits in the low 90's with his curve and changeup both showing promise, so he has a very good shot at ending up a back-end starter in the Bronx. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until September. He has already signed, but the terms have not been released and slot value there is $430,400.
5-157: CF Brandon Lockridge (unranked)
Lockridge played center field for Troy University in Alabama, where he slashed .307/.429/.480 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He shows top of the scale speed with some gap power, and while he probably ends up a fourth outfielder, he quietly has the tools to be a little more. That 12.3% walk rate is nice to see, and the 15.3% strikeout rate isn't too bad for a fifth rounder. This is a good pick, and they got him for $300,000, which is $20,700 below slow.
Others: 7th rounder Daniel Bies had a very good junior season at Gonzaga, going 7-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 16 starts, striking out 124 and walking 25 in 112 innings. The 6'8" righty also pitched very well in the Cape Cod League, putting up a 3.09 ERA and a 27/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 innings against tough competition. He throws hard with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and a curveball that looks very good, though he may be moved to the bullpen, where he could be a dominant guy on a per-inning basis. 14th rounder Kyle Gray had a huge breakout year after two so-so seasons at West Virginia University, slashing .374/.462/.677 with 14 home runs and a 41/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He was drafted as a second baseman and should be an offensive-minded utility infielder as he moves up. That 14.5% career walk rate certainly doesn't hurt. As a fun fact, he's from a small town in Texas hill country called Blanco, and country music fans might recognize the next town to the west: Luckenbach, Texas. 19th rounder Alex Junior was the leadoff man this year for the unreal Tennessee Tech offense, slashing .316/.451/.465 with seven home runs and a 59/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, showing very good on-base ability but a need to improve his contact. A .316 batting average is good, though it was in the Ohio Valley Conference, and his 17.4% strikeout rate is just a little too high for comfort. He'll hope to ride that 16.5% walk rate to a fourth outfielder spot in the Bronx.
Also notable: Daniel Bies (7-217), Kyle Gray (14-427), Alex Junior (19-577)
The Yankees went for upside here, grabbing two high schoolers and a JuCo bat in the first three rounds, and four of their first five picks were hitters. After that, they took six straight pitchers in rounds six through eleven, including five straight college arms. They have been very good at taking lesser-known pitchers and making solid prospects out of them, so it makes sense that they would lean pitcher heavy in the middle of the draft, and the hitters at the top will look to replenish a farm system that lacks impact bats after trades and the graduation of Gleyber Torres.
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (my rank: 44)
I'll start off by saying I don't like this pick. Seigler has plenty of upside both at the plate and behind it, but for the 23rd overall pick, there is a lot of risk here. Catchers are the toughest position to develop and often take the least linear path in terms of that development, so drafting a high schooler at the position is often a shot in the dark. That's why I a) prefer college catchers, who are further along in their development or b) taking more catchers later in the draft, hoping that one pans out. That said, Seigler is very athletic for a catcher (he switch hits AND switch pitches) and probably has a better chance than most high school catchers to continue on the trajectory he is on. There is no doubt about his talent, as he hits the ball hard from both sides of the plate with a good approach and some power to tap into. He's a good defender behind the plate, so he really does have a lot going for him. I just don't think he's worth the 23rd overall pick. If anybody is thinking about Gary Sanchez, don't be. If the Yankees think Seigler was the best talent available, they should go with him, because you never worry about position or need during the first round. They'll worry about Sanchez vs Seigler later. Seigler signed at slot for just over $2.8 million.
2-61: C Josh Breaux (my rank: 87)
Another pick, another catcher. Breaux has been dealing with some arm issues this year, so that was factored into his ranking for me, but if the Yankees liked his physical, then this isn't the worst pick, though I still think it's an overdraft. Breaux is a JuCo bat out of McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas who has absolutely mashed the pitching he has faced, including a .404/.532/.831 slash line with 18 home runs in 56 games. He does everything big, with a big, powerful swing as well as a big, powerful arm. The arm can actually reach 100 MPH on the mound, which will help his defensive value, and he'll need it because the rest of his catching game needs work. Back to the bat, there is a ton of power here, but he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts to tap into it. He's a high risk, high reward pick, though in a different way than Seigler. Again, don't worry about Gary Sanchez. Worst case scenario, the Yankees can trade Seigler and Breaux. He has not signed yet and slot value here is just over $1 million.
3-97: OF Ryder Green (my rank: 83)
Green will probably require more than the allotted $576,400 to sign, but the Yankees should save enough on their later picks to get him. He's a high school outfielder from the Knoxville, Tennessee area, one with a lot of strength who can drive balls all over the field with ease. He has a strong arm as well, one which should play well in right field. He is a bit raw at the plate though, understandable for a kid from East Tennessee, as his swing has a little bit more long-to-it, short-through-it than one would like, but that's why he fell to the third round. With some swing adjustments, he could be a 20 homer bat with pretty good defense in right field, and that's value. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
4-127: RHP Frank German (unranked)
German just finished up a dominant season at the University of North Florida, going 8-3 with a 1.58 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 108/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 91 innings. The 6'2" starter should be able to remain a starter though the minors, as he has a smooth delivery, maintains his stuff throughout the game, and throws strikes. His fastball sits in the low 90's with his curve and changeup both showing promise, so he has a very good shot at ending up a back-end starter in the Bronx. He's also young for a college junior, not turning 21 until September. He has already signed, but the terms have not been released and slot value there is $430,400.
5-157: CF Brandon Lockridge (unranked)
Lockridge played center field for Troy University in Alabama, where he slashed .307/.429/.480 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 46/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. He shows top of the scale speed with some gap power, and while he probably ends up a fourth outfielder, he quietly has the tools to be a little more. That 12.3% walk rate is nice to see, and the 15.3% strikeout rate isn't too bad for a fifth rounder. This is a good pick, and they got him for $300,000, which is $20,700 below slow.
Others: 7th rounder Daniel Bies had a very good junior season at Gonzaga, going 7-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 16 starts, striking out 124 and walking 25 in 112 innings. The 6'8" righty also pitched very well in the Cape Cod League, putting up a 3.09 ERA and a 27/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 innings against tough competition. He throws hard with a fastball that reaches the mid 90's and a curveball that looks very good, though he may be moved to the bullpen, where he could be a dominant guy on a per-inning basis. 14th rounder Kyle Gray had a huge breakout year after two so-so seasons at West Virginia University, slashing .374/.462/.677 with 14 home runs and a 41/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He was drafted as a second baseman and should be an offensive-minded utility infielder as he moves up. That 14.5% career walk rate certainly doesn't hurt. As a fun fact, he's from a small town in Texas hill country called Blanco, and country music fans might recognize the next town to the west: Luckenbach, Texas. 19th rounder Alex Junior was the leadoff man this year for the unreal Tennessee Tech offense, slashing .316/.451/.465 with seven home runs and a 59/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, showing very good on-base ability but a need to improve his contact. A .316 batting average is good, though it was in the Ohio Valley Conference, and his 17.4% strikeout rate is just a little too high for comfort. He'll hope to ride that 16.5% walk rate to a fourth outfielder spot in the Bronx.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Catchers
This will be my first in a series of position-by-position lists for the top players in the 2018 MLB Draft. The list is drawn from all eligible players, including high school, junior college, and four year college. It is based on my own analysis from video and online scouting reports.
This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.
1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.
2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.
3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.
4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.
5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.
Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)
This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.
1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.
2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.
3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.
4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.
5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.
Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)
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