Showing posts with label Milwaukee Brewers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Milwaukee Brewers. Show all posts

Thursday, August 13, 2026

2026 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers have their own way of drafting and normally push bonus pool money around, and 2026 was no different. After under-slotting an Ebel brother for the second straight season, they split that money between first round talent Sawyer Strosnider and late riser Julian Garcia to make a core trio for the class. From there, the Brewers divvied out several moderate bonuses to under the radar high schoolers like Grant Hill ($200K), Kellan Tom ($175K), Chance Ruby ($150K), and Brady Smith ($150K). It's an unusual strategy as most teams target higher dollar preps and send lower bonuses to college players, but Milwaukee trusts its first in class player development system and thinks they can find some real bargains here.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-25: SS Trey Ebel, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $3.7 million. Signing bonus: $2.8 million ($896,000 below slot value).
My rank: #93. MLB Pipeline: #107. ESPN: #37.
A year ago, the Brewers popped Corona (Calif.) High School shortstop Brady Ebel in the comp round, #32 overall, and signed him for an under-slot $2.75 million. This year, the Brewers went back to Corona High School to take shortstop Trey Ebel with the #25 overall pick, then signed him for a nearly identical $2.8 million bonus. Trey's bonus was nearly a million dollars below slot value, just below the value of the #35 pick, and gave the Brewers massive savings to use later in the draft. Ebel himself is no slouch of a prospect, even if he was drafted far earlier than some expected. He was a helium prospect in the spring of 2026, performing extremely well against strong Southern California high school competition at one of the top schools in the region. His compact right handed swing puts good leverage on the ball and has helped him hit everywhere he's gone, while his power has ticked up as he's filled out his solid 6' frame. He uses a toe tap for timing and reads pitches well out of the hand, driving the ball on a line to all fields with authority. He'll likely always be hit over power, profiling for home run totals in the teens with high on-base percentages driving by both batting average and strong walk rates. The Rancho Cucamonga native has also worked hard on his shortstop defense, with compact actions and an above average arm that look much more playable at the field's toughest non-catching position than they did perhaps a year or two ago. There is still a chance that his fringy pure speed or a more explosive defender pushes him to second or third base, but the glove has gotten so steady that he could be a plus defender at either of those positions. Like his brother, Ebel is very young for the class and won't turn 18 until September, giving him significant extra development runway over some of his peers. Interestingly enough, joining the Brewers organization means he not only joins his brother, but also a third Corona native and fellow middle infielder in Brice Turang. He had previously been committed to Texas A&M.

2-66: OF Sawyer Strosnider, Texas Christian
Slot value: $1.35 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($746,900 above slot value).
My rank: #22. MLB Pipeline: #22. ESPN: #36.
Sawyer Strosnider had a wide range of opinions in the industry ranging from those that saw him as a mid-first round talent who could go in the teens to those more skeptical of his hit tool who felt he belonged in the comp round. It seems the more pessimistic outlook won out, where he fell into the Brewers' lap for an above slot bonus in the second round. Coming in at pick #66, Milwaukee used most of their savings on first rounder Trey Ebel to sign Strosnider for roughly the value of the #48 pick. He has been a high level prospect since he was a high schooler outside of Fort Worth, but he honored his commitment to TCU and exploded onto the scene with a .350/.420/.650 slash line that earned him Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors. He entered the 2026 season a potential top ten pick, but an up and down sophomore year saw him slash .273/.415/.590 across 50 games. Listed at 6'2", 200 pounds, Strosnider is a twitchy athlete with plus-plus raw power that produces great exit velocities. He doesn't get to all of it just yet with an over-aggressive approach that creates too much weak contact even if his bat to ball is above average. After walking at an 8% rate as a freshman, he more than doubled it to 18.4% as a sophomore not because he was chasing less, but because pitchers were less willing to pitch to him. Strosnider is relatively raw as a hitter even after two years at TCU and hit just .229/.346/.457 in Big 12 play, tempering some interest but not dimming his immense upside. His combination of power and good-enough bat to ball could make him a thirty home run bat with improvements to his approach, and his plus speed could make him a 30-30 player. The speed and above average arm give him a shot to play center field too, and if he moves to right, he could be a plus defender there. Strosnider has all the building blocks of a potential star and while most teams didn't think a .229 conference hitter was worth the risk in the first round, it's tremendous value in the second.

3-102: OF Kyle Jones, Florida
Slot value: $770,600. Signing bonus: $675,000 ($95,600 below slot value).
My rank: #112. MLB Pipeline: #135. ESPN: #140.
Doubling down on college outfielders with upside, Kyle Jones brings the Brewers an under-slot bat that is the opposite of Strosnider as a hit-over-power type rather than vice versa. He began his career at Stetson, where he hit .355 as a freshman before transferring to Florida. A shoulder injury limited him to four games as a sophomore, but he bounced back as a junior this year to hit .317/.418/.478 for the Gators. Jones gets it done with a strong approach and good bat to ball, helping him hit over .300 everywhere he's gone even as he's jumped to tougher competition in the SEC. Listed at 6'3", 190 pounds, he's still very projectable and could tack on significant power, which is a scary thought given the polish in his bat already. The power presently is below average, and at present he probably profiles for home run totals in the low teens alongside high on-base percentages. The Georgia native can get up to plus speed at his best but plays closer to average on the field, though it should be enough for center field. With an average arm, he may fit better in left than right if he shifts out, so the Brewers will work hard to squeeze a little more impact out of his high average bat.

4-130: RHP Julian Garcia, St. John Bosco HS [CA]
Slot value: $585,700. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($914,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #109. ESPN: #135.
Julian Garcia was a late riser in the 2026 class, so in a year where I had less time to build a comprehensive draft list, I didn't get a chance to look into his profile beforehand and he did not rank on my final board of 132 players. The Brewers sure did, and they gave him big time money (roughly the value of the #62 pick) to divert him from a Long Beach State commitment. He has a power fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with ride to blow past bats, while his hammer curveball has much better snap and finish than most at that age. There's a changeup as well, but it's firm at this point and needs further development. Garcia has flashed big stuff throughout his high school career, but this year he channeled it into a much more complete package and looks as much like a starter as ever. The 6'3" righty is big and durable, filling up the zone more in the past and maintaining his power stuff deep into games. Milwaukee is investing in a potential mid-rotation starter on the rise with stuff, size, and durability combined with improving command. If they can bring his changeup along, he'll more than justify the late second round investment here in the fourth round,.

12-371: RHP Marcus Kruzan, Minnesota
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000. 
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
Wisconsin has produced its fair share of talent, but the Northwoods are another story. Marcus Kruzan hails from the tiny town of Highbridge, Wisconsin all the way up on Lake Superior, where he attended Ashland High School about fifteen miles away. He spent his first two seasons at Saint Thomas in Minneapolis before transferring across town to Minnesota, where he established himself as a reliable starting pitcher. There is not much information out there about his arsenal, but it's a fastball that gets into the mid 90's at peak with a full arsenal of secondaries. He can manipulate the shape of his breaking balls and gets nice finish, working between a curveball and slider, and adds a solid if somewhat firm changeup. Working with a deep arm plunge, he gets great extension from his 6'2" frame putting a little extra hop on his stuff. His command has improved in school and now looks closer to average. Kruzan has some nice upside to uncover working in a pro development program, especially in an org like the Brewers. It doesn't hurt to add another Wisconsinite either.

17-521: SS Chance Ruby, Wilmot Union HS [WI]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000. 
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
As with Marcus Kruzan, there isn't a ton of information available about local Wisconsinite Chance Ruby. Hailing from Twin Lakes, nearly three hundred miles away from Kruzan's Highbridge but somehow in the same state, Ruby attended Wilmot Union High School on the Illinois border less than forty miles southwest of American Family Field in Milwaukee. He is a 6' shortstop with a powerful right handed swing, creating great torque from a wide base and an effective kinetic chain. While the hit tool is unproven against higher level arms, the Brewers were impressed in their looks and believe pro development will be enough to help him tap that power in games. Ruby is also a plus runner with a good arm, giving him a shot to stick at shortstop too. He's a classic under the radar, cold weather bat who could sneak up on people and turn into a potential five tool player. Of course, he has a very long way to go.

20-611: 1B Carsten Sabathia, Houston
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. ESPN: unranked.
The Brewers closed out the draft with Carsten Sabathia, son of (brief) former Brewers star CC Sabathia. Carsten began his career at Georgia Tech, where he had just twenty plate appearances over two seasons before transferring to Houston. There, he still saw inconsistent playing time but took a step forward from his junior (.235/.333/.370, 2 HR) to his senior (.283/.374/.511, 6 HR) seasons. Like his father, he is a big presence in the box at 6'4", 245 pounds and brings the exit velocities to match. He can really rip the barrel through the zone with a whippy, powerful right handed swing that gets the ball in the air and produces plus raw power. He doesn't get to it consistently in games because his timing can be inconsistent and his bat to ball is fringy, leading to a lot of weak contact as well and a 24.3% strikeout rate in 2026. Sabathia will need considerable mechanical cleanup in pro ball to truly unlock that prodigious raw power, while his defense is also limited as a below average runner and a first baseman-only. He'll turn 23 in September.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers followed their usual formula in 2025, going at or under slot with each of their first five picks and eleven of their first twelve, heading into the back half of the draft with significant cash to burn. They ended up spending almost all of it, but fell a little short of their full allotment and left five players unsigned, the most of any team. In fact, not a single draftee in the last ten rounds signed for at or below the allotted $150,000 – all five signed for anywhere between $225,000 and $757,500. The Brewers drafted twelve high schoolers in all, more than any other team, and signed nine of them, also the most of any team. It's a very boom or bust draft although they played it safe with a polished bat (Andrew Fischer) and a polished arm (JD Thompson) as two of their first three picks. With four of the first 68 picks, they also had more room to work than most teams.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-20: 3B Andrew Fischer, Tennessee
Slot value: $4.27 million. Signing bonus: $3.5 million ($768,100 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #29. Baseball America: #28.
Milwaukee saved over three quarters of a million dollars with this pick (giving Fischer the value of the #26 pick), but that doesn't mean they aren't starting things with a bang. Andrew Fischer has one of the very best bats in this entire class and was one of the most visible hitters in college baseball this year as the centerpiece to Tennessee's always-potent lineup. A native of the Jersey Shore, he began his career at Duke where he was one of the Blue Devils' better hitters as a freshman, then transferred to Ole Miss and improved despite stepping up to face even better competition in the SEC. Not content with Oxford, he transferred a second time alongside Liam Doyle to Tennessee, where he took yet another step forward with the bat slashing .341/.497/.760 with 25 home runs in 65 games. Fischer has above average raw power, but he maximizes every ounce of it for plus power in games as he is elite at elevating the baseball with authority. His uppercut left handed swing is regularly on time and he makes his best contact up in the air. An aggressive hitter when he began at Duke, he started to rein in his approach at Ole Miss and by 2025 he was never, ever chasing, running an elite 21.6% walk rate to push his on-base percentage near .500. That combination of power, launch angle, and patience to get the right pitch to drive helps him score very well on team models. If there is one drawback in his offensive profile it is his pure bat to ball, as he swings and misses in the zone just a little more than you'd like to see from a first round bat. Pro pitchers will attack him in the zone, but they'll be doing so at their peril as he has the potential for 25-30 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages in the bigs. His bat is well ahead of his glove, where he'll have to work hard to provide value. He's a below average runner and his range is a bit stretched at third base, though he does have enough arm strength to make it work. While he played a lot of third base at his first two schools, he played mostly first base at his third school. He could also end up in an outfield corner. Regardless, his bat is loud and the Brewers are drafting him to stick in the middle of their order. Fischer has a loud personality and was simultaneously one of the most beloved players in Knoxville and one of the most hated players in the rest of the SEC. Mixing New Jersey and the Deep South was always going to be interesting.

1C-32: SS Brady Ebel, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($220,900 below slot value).
My rank: #73. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #42.
At most high schools, getting drafted 32nd overall would make you the highest drafted player in a generation, if not in school history. For Brady Ebel, though, it only meant he was the third player drafted off his team in the same draft, following Pirates #6 pick Seth Hernandez and White Sox #10 pick Billy Carlson. The son of Dodgers third base coach Dino Ebel, Brady began his career at Etiwanda High School but transferred to powerhouse Corona High School after two years. Ebel has long been a well-known name in this class and has had first round buzz for years. His stock started to fade just a bit over the last calendar year and most had second round grades on him, but the Brewers remained sold and gave him a slight under slot bonus to step away from an LSU commitment. Despite being one of the younger players in the class and not turning 18 until after the draft, he brings a very polished game befitting of the son of a major league coach. At the plate, he begins with a bit of a bat wrap but negates it with a quick trigger and a direct bat path, helping him make lots of contact even against older, high level pitching. His power is below average for now, but with a projectable 6'3" frame, he looks like he could grow into at least average power in time. Meanwhile, while the Southern California product is unremarkable as a runner, he brings fluid actions to the shortstop position as well as an above average arm that could help him stick at the highly sought after position. If he gets pushed off by a more explosive defender, he should fit well as an above average third baseman. The key to Ebel's development will be his power development, which will make the difference between a contact-oriented utility infielder and a big league regular who could knock 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages at his peak.

2-59: LHP JD Thompson, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $1.56 million. Signing bonus: $1.56 million.
My rank: #48. MLB Pipeline: #66. Baseball America: #61.
I like JD Thompson, and I think he is a tremendous fit for the Brewers' system. He gradually worked his way into a larger and larger role on Vanderbilt's pitching staff, culminating in a 2025 in which he served as the program's ace, put up six double digit strikeout games, and finished tied for seventh in NCAA Division I with 122 strikeouts. He's more of a polished arm than a power pitcher, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and only topping out around 95. The pitch plays up with riding action from a lower slot, coming in with relatively flat plane through the zone. He throws both a slider and a curveball, with the former dipping in under bats with nice, late action and the latter showing bigger, two-plane break to dive across the plate. He also shows a solid changeup, making for a big league ready four pitch mix. Everything plays up because Thompson creates nice angle with his crossfire delivery, giving his stuff even more of that two-plane effect. The East Texas native shows above average command of all of his pitches, filling up the zone by repeating his delivery consistently. Lacking a plus pitch, it is not the most exciting profile and his strikeout rate will likely drop in pro ball, but the Brewers love his well rounded profile and they have had plenty of success with this profile in the past. He projects as a #3 or #4 starting pitcher who could move quickly and be in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

2C-68: LHP Frank Cairone, Delsea Regional HS [NJ]
Slot value: $1.25 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($156,900 below slot value).
My rank: #103. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #96.
Frank Cairone is a bit of a sleeper and a sneaky good pick for the Brewers here, who got him slightly below slot value to keep him from attending Coastal Carolina. Like JD Thompson, he will fit very well into this Brewers player development system. Cairone sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 96 at peak early in starts but settling closer to 90 at times. The pitch plays up further due to excellent riding life and extension, and a little more velocity could make it a plus pitch. He has long been able to spin the ball, but he's now starting to separate out his slider and curveball into distinct, potentially above average pitches. His changeup is behind as a fourth pitch, which is not uncommon for high school arms. The 6'2" lefty looks physical and repeats his delivery well, helping him fill up the strike zone well for a young arm and project for at least average command. Additionally, Cairone is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until two months after the draft and really the age of an older 2026 graduate. There is a ton of upside here as a potential mid rotation starter and I believe he is not as far away from that ceiling as you might think.

3-94: RHP Jacob Morrison, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $813,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($116,100 below slot value).
My rank: #168. MLB Pipeline: #173. Baseball America: #187.
Jacob Morrison's rise to stardom is extremely impressive. He joined the Coastal Carolina rotation as a true freshman in 2023, but was hit hard with a .304 opponents' batting average and a 6.55 ERA over thirteen starts. After missing all of 2024 with Tommy John surgery, he stepped back into the rotation in 2025 and beat all expectations by a country mile, going 12-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 104/23 strikeout to walk ratio as he led the Chanticleers to the College World Series Finals and took home is own Sun Belt Pitcher of the Year award. Listed at a towering 6'8", 245 pounds, Morrison is the quintessential college ace. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, coming in with downhill plane and some life from an extremely high slot. He throws both a curveball and a slider that get nice glove side dip and sneak under bats, while his changeup is a firm fourth pitch. Morrison has a relatively stiff delivery but repeats it well and shows above average command, especially of his fastball, helping him walk just 5.4% of his opponents in 2025. Besides the Tommy John surgery, which can bite any pitcher, he has proven very durable and his 107.2 innings in 2025 were the third most in Division I. The kid out of the Flint, Michigan area likely does not have the stuff to miss large numbers of bats in pro ball, so he'll need to rely on his command to stay ahead in counts and keep hitters guessing. If the Brewers can help one or two of his secondaries take a step forward, that would be a major factor in getting him to his ceiling as a #4 or #5 starter. As of now, I most likely see him as a serviceable long reliever.

4-125: RHP Joshua Flores, Lake Central HS [IN]
Slot value: $599,600. Signing bonus: $722,500 ($122,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #392.
After going at or slightly under slot value with each of their first five picks, the Brewers began to cash in on their savings by going a bit above slot to lure Joshua Flores away from a Kentucky commitment. While his ranking on public boards might not give it away, he has one of the highest octane arms you'll find outside of the top couple of rounds and is a markedly different prospect than the pitchers Milwaukee targeted so far in this class. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out at 97 with run and ride to make it a plus pitch. His best pitch, however, is a nasty curveball with wicked snap that Northwest Indiana high school hitters simply couldn't handle. He can turn it over into a decent slider, while his changeup is behind. Flores has a long arm action, going almost full extension straight back before firing to the plate, leading to well below average command and getting him into walk trouble even with those same high school hitters his stuff could easily overwhelm. The Brewers will need to work hard to both streamline his delivery and help him harness his electric stuff, which could make him a high end starting pitcher at the big league level. Given how far he has to go to reach that ceiling, there is a good chance he ends up a reliever where he focuses on the fastball/curveball combination and doesn't need to hold his command more than an inning or two. He's also young for the class, having only turned 18 a month before the draft.

6-185: SS Daniel Dickinson, Louisiana State
Slot value: $344,400. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #80. Baseball America: #73.
This is a nice value get for the Brewers, as Daniel Dickinson was considered a top two rounds prospect at times and still got third round grades from many publications at draft time, though he was a fourth rounder on my board. Lightly scouted out of high school, he began his career at Utah Valley University and simply bashed his way through the WAC, earning first team all-conference honors as both a freshman and a sophomore. He transferred to LSU for his junior season and had no issues catching up to SEC pitching, though questions about the overall impact in his profile pushed him back a couple rounds. Dickinson is a high contact bat that battles through his at bats, which aided his transition from the WAC to the SEC and which will aid his transition into pro ball. The power, meanwhile, is more of a question mark. He's listed at an average 6', 180 pounds, and ran below average exit velocity numbers despite smacking 39 home runs in three years of college ball. His power plays with metal bats when he can yank it to the pull side, though he hit just .205/.350/.253 with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer, showing his same great plate discipline but struggling to drive the ball into gaps and over heads. Drafted as a shortstop, he has the physical tools to profile there if needed but probably fits better at second base, where he could be solid average or even above average. The Eastern Washington native is a baseball rat who will maximize his skill set and best profiles as a contact hitting utility infielder in Milwaukee.

11-335: SS CJ Hughes, Junipero Serra HS [CA]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($550,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #215.
As is tradition in Milwaukee, the Brewers began to unload their excess bonus pool space by dumping early fourth round money into eleventh rounder CJ Hughes, precluding him from attending UC Santa Barbara. Hughes had a strong senior season at JSerra High School in Southern California, a powerhouse program producing more and more talent headlined by 2017 first overall pick Royce Lewis. He is a glove first shortstop with a vacuum-like glove at the premium position, showing natural soft hands and enough arm strength to be an above average defender there. A switch hitter, he has impressed evaluators with a strong approach and solid bat to ball, giving him a shot at an average or better hit tool. There's not much power in the profile, clocking in at a listed 155 pounds, and he'll likely never have average power no matter how much he develops. Still, there is some twitch in his swings and he should have enough to keep pitchers honest with something like 5-10 home runs per season and plenty of doubles and triples. With average speed, it's probably a utility infield profile with a chance to develop into an every day shortstop if he can tack on a little bit of strength. Age works in his favor as he won't turn 18 until September, making him one of the youngest players in the entire draft.

19-575: RHP Chase Bentley, IMG Academy [FL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus $757,500 ($607,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
There is not a ton of public information out there on Chase Bentley, who signed for a large, late-third round caliber bonus rather than attend Texas A&M. He's a Northern California native who crossed the country with Rays supplemental pick Dean Moss to attend IMG Academy in Florida. His fastball sits around 90 with tons of running action to miss barrels, while he has really sharpened up his slider into a second out pitch. There is a curveball and a changeup in the mix as well, though he can drop his arm to get more fade on the latter, making for a well-rounded arsenal which he has shown solid feel to command. Listed at 6'3", 215 pounds, he's very physical for a high schooler and that is made even more impressive by the fact that he is relatively young for a high school pick, giving the Brewers high confidence he can develop into a mid-rotation starting pitcher. They'll loosen up his delivery a little bit to unlock more velocity and continue honing in those breaking pitches. While he wasn't much of a known commodity before the draft, the Brewers did their diligence here and think he would have developed into a monster in College Station.

20-605: RHP Ma'Kale Holden, Thompson HS [AL]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $410,000 ($260,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #163.
Milwaukee finished things off with a second straight physical right handed pitcher here, paying Ma'Kale Holden late fifth round money to head north rather than stay home at Alabama for school. He has hit 97 with his fastball but more commonly lives closer to 90 at present, while showing excellent feel for spin on his two breaking balls. There is a changeup in the mix as well, giving him a power arm with four pitches. For now, the mechanics are relatively raw and both his fastball velocity and his secondary stuff can be inconsistent, but at his peak stuff he looks like he belongs in the top couple of rounds. With his inconsistent mechanics, he also has trouble holding his command together for longer periods of time, making for an all around relatively raw prospect. Milwaukee will take its time with Holden to streamline things, with pro coaching hopefully unlocking effectiveness at his peak stuff. The 6'1" righty carries reliever risk, where he could sit closer to the mid 90's and pull the string on his nasty breaking stuff.

Saturday, August 31, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers looked at the slot value structure, laughed, and went their own way spreading their bonus pool all over the place. They saved about $1.7 million on their first two picks, gave nearly a million of that back to second rounder Bryce Meccage, then saved another three quarters of a million dollars on third rounder Jaron DeBerry. They also knew that Meccage and competitive balance pick Chris Levonas would be tough signs, so they drafted seven preps (mostly pitchers) on day three plus two more tough-sign college arms. It turns out that Levonas didn't sign, so they spread the money around and spent more than two million dollars against their bonus pool on four of those day three arms, leaving five (plus Levonas) unsigned. This was a clearly pitching-heavy draft, as after taking bats with their first two picks, the Brewers only signed one position player the rest of the way. They targeted unique fastballs, projection, and youth relative to class, trusting heavily in what's been a pretty successful pitching development pipeline.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: OF Braylon Payne, Elkins HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $4.53 million. Signing bonus: $3.44 million ($1.09 million below slot value).
My rank: #51. MLB Pipeline: #53. Baseball America: #54.
The Brewers played their first pick anything but straight up. Braylon Payne was almost universally considered a second round talent, but Milwaukee was so convicted in his tools and projection that they grabbed him here in the middle of the first round, paying the Houston commit roughly the slot value for the #25 pick here at pick #18. That move saves the Brewers more than a million dollars, savings which they would deploy a round later on New Jersey prep arm Bryce Meccage. Payne, meanwhile, is no slouch. He stands out first for his plus-plus speed that regularly impacts the game on both sides of the ball, but he's more than a speedster. He's skinny at this point at 6'2", 185 pounds, but he has steadily gotten more physical and projects to continue to do that for a long time. He starts with his hands high before dropping them into the hitting zone, gashing line drives around the park with regularity against Houston-area pitching in 2024. It's a bit of a disconnected stroke that is purely focused on contact at this point, and when he misses, he usually misses on top of the ball with lots of ground balls that play well to his blazing speed. As Payne continues to refine his swing mechanics and learn to leverage the ball, he could tap fringe-average power in the long run with the potential for 10-15 home runs per season, perhaps more at peak. Still, it will always be a hit over power profile. Meanwhile, he's a weapon in center field with strong feel for the position beyond his speed, so he'll not only stick there but provide positive big league value despite his weaker arm. Age ties the profile together nicely, as Payne didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft and has plenty of time to grow both physically and in his skillset. If it all breaks right, he could be Milwaukee's leadoff man of the future.

CBA-34: 1B Blake Burke, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $2.70 million. Signing bonus: $2.10 million ($598,300 below slot value).
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #65. Baseball America: #51.
I love this pick. Blake Burke is a borderline-first round talent, and they saved nearly $600,000 here by signing him to roughly the slot value of the #44 pick. If you've followed college baseball at all, you know who Tommy White is, and Burke actually stacks up extremely well against his more famous LSU counterpart. Firstly, Burke is a big, physical presence in the box at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, looking even bigger as he stands straight and tall awaiting the pitch. He has a simple left handed swing that channels all of his brute strength into plus-plus raw power, power which he taps effortlessly and consistently in games. Beyond the power, he actually has plus bat to ball skills to make a ton of contact inside and outside the zone, though the hit tool plays down just a tick due to an extremely aggressive approach. Burke chases roughly a third of the time, one of the highest rates among early draft picks, yet still struck out in less than 15% of his plate appearances in 2024 as he made contact anyways. Pro and MLB pitchers will "know how to miss" a bit better than college pitchers, which will make things more difficult on Burke, though his bat to ball should help bail him out until he makes the appropriate adjustments. Meanwhile, the Northern California native is a non-athlete that will be limited to first base, where his well below average speed and heavy feet will be less of an issue. Despite his lack of athleticism, he does handle himself well around the bag and should be just fine at first base. Like Braylon Payne, Burke is young for the class and turned 21 a month before the draft. He has picked up four hits, all singles, in sixteen at bats with four strikeouts to two walks through five games at High A Wisconsin.

2-57: RHP Bryce Meccage, Pennington HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $1.56 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($937,900 above slot value).
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #71.
After saving over $1.5 million on their first two picks, the Brewers began to cash in here by bringing in one of the top prep arms in the Northeast. With a signing bonus roughly fitting for the #37 pick, the Brewers pulled Bryce Meccage away from a Virginia commitment. Meccage sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with a fastball, an explosive pitch that plays up further with riding action. He has great feel for spin at this point, showing both an above average curveball and slider with distinct shapes to miss bats. The changeup is behind, but you'll happily take three potential above average pitches. Meccage is a great athlete with explosive actions on the mound, repeating his delivery well for average command that you don't often see paired with his caliber of stuff. 6'4" righty also has a very physical frame with additional room to fill out and add even more power, giving him legitimate ace upside especially in a system like Milwaukee that develops pitching well. While like most high school pitchers he has a long way to go, this is a special arm talent that already shows some polish.

CBB-67: RHP Chris Levonas, Christian Brothers HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $1.23 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #63. MLB Pipeline: #59. Baseball America: #74.
As a fellow New Jersey power armed righty, Chris Levonas is a very similar arm to Bryce Meccage. The Brewers hoped their massive savings in the first two rounds would help them lure Levonas away from a Wake Forest, but unfortunately they could only afford one and they won't be able to spend his $1.23 million slot value elsewhere. Like Meccage, he has a low 90's fastball that touches 97 with riding life and also shows excellent feel for spin. He can really rip through his power curveball with big spin rates and nasty bite, and he can shift it into more of a cutter/slider that looks like an above average pitch in its own right. Again like Meccage, the changeup is a bit behind. While Meccage is a little more physical, Levonas is an even more explosive athlete that gets down the mound extremely well with projection remaining on his 6'2" frame. Because he's so explosive on the mound, his command can be impacted and he can get scattered, so Wake Forest will look to smooth that out a bit while preserving the big time stuff. He has a chance to become a superstar under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara.

3-93: RHP Jaron DeBerry, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: $788,700. Signing bonus: $25,000 ($763,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #459.
Continuing with the bonus pool games, the Brewers more or less punted their third round pick from a bonus standpoint, grabbing senior sign Jaron DeBerry for a minuscule $25,000. The bonus standpoint disclaimer is important, because Deberry is an impressive arm. He began his career at Northern Oklahoma JC, then transferred to Grayson JC as a sophomore and finally on to Dallas Baptist for his junior and senior seasons. 2024 was his best year yet, impressively completing at least five innings in all sixteen of his appearances. The fastball sits around 90, perhaps a tick above, and tops out around 94 with riding and cutting action from a lower slot, making for a sneaky offering that plays up. Following the "feel for spin" theme of this draft class, he leans heavily on his tight, hard sweeper and his downer curveball, while also showing a true cutter, sinker, and changeup, though those are more filler for the arsenal than headliners. He doesn't carry much weight on his skinny 6'2" frame, offering some projection, and he has assuaged durability concerns so far with a consistent, high workload season at Dallas Baptist. DeBerry repeats his delivery well and shows a tick above average command. Between the deep arsenal, consistency, projection, and command, it's a really nice sleeper of a starting pitching profile for a guy who barely signed for any money. And though he's a senior sign, the DFW native is young for his class and didn't turn 22 until more than a month after the draft.

4-123: C Marco Dinges, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $583,400. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($83,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Marco Dinges was a prominent bat in the ACC this past season, though most outlets saw him as a better college hitter than pro prospect. Not the Brewers, who believe fully in the bat and even think he has a chance to catch at the next level. Dinges began his career at Tallahassee JC, planned on transferring to Maryland, then changed course and instead headed down Pensacola Street to play at Florida State where he was all-ACC third team. He's a power-over-hit type with a sturdy 6' frame that can blast balls out to all fields with ease, doing so fifteen times in 2024. He's also a pretty disciplined hitter that walked (13.3%) more than he struck out (12.5%), keeping the swing and miss down by swinging at good pitches he knew he could work with. Meanwhile, Dinges is a below average athlete that has spent a lot of time at DH, though he has made appearances in the outfield and behind the plate. His below average speed limits him in the former, though his above average arm could help him cut it in right field, while he's raw at the latter. However, his strong frame and arm strength give him a nice baseline as a catcher, and if he can maintain his mobility and clean up hsi actions a little bit, he does have a shot to play there. That would certainly elevate the profile considerably, as he'd otherwise have to be carried by his bat alone which could go either way. He is young for the class, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft. So far, he's slashing .303/.378/.394 with a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games at Low A Carolina.

5-156: RHP John Holobetz, Old Dominion {video}
Slot value: $422,900. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($100,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
John Holobetz is another one that was off the radar a bit. Another transfer, he began his career at Radford and played the last two seasons across the state at Old Dominion, where he has been a valuable swingman for the Monarchs. Holobetz has a low 90's fastball that gets up to around 95, with more likely in the tank. He complements the fastball with a nice slider, and those two are his main weapons. Holobetz lost his spot in the rotation after four turns this spring, but showed very well as a long reliever and still averaged over four innings per appearance overall. He has above average command and moves extremely well on the mound, with significant projection remaining in his 6'3" frame. He could cut it as a back-end starter if he brings the changeup along, or his stuff has a chance to really leap forward in shorter stints with better command than most relievers. It's a pretty fun arm that the Brewers tend to do well with. Breaking from the theme a bit, the Pennsylvania native is older for the class and turned 22 shortly after the draft, making him older than senior Jaron DeBerry and more than a year older than fellow junior Marco Dinges.

7-215: LHP Mason Molina, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $257,400. Signing bonus: $254,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #190. MLB Pipeline: #225. Baseball America: #147.
After a stretch of names expected to go a bit later in the draft, Mason Molina is one of the more famous players to be taken by any team in this late day two part of the draft. Molina was a coveted prep arm out of Southern California, landing at Texas Tech where he was a central piece of head coach Tim Tadlock's pitching staffs in 2022 and 2023. Transferring to Arkansas this past season, he slotted right into the Razorback rotation and turned in another solid season, giving a really extensive body of work overall. His fastball sits around 90 and tops out around 95, which isn't overwhelming, but it plays way above its velocity with massive riding life to make it almost like an invisiball. He has a big, deep curveball and a tighter slider, both of which reliably miss bats in the zone when he executes them, which is often. Molina rounds things out with an above average changeup with great fading action, and it might be his best pitch when all is said and done. He lacks a true strikeout pitch and the breaking balls lack the true snap to elicit chases, but he's a high IQ pitcher who effectively sequences his pitches and works through lineups. The 6'2" lefty has gotten bigger at Arkansas, now clocking in at 230 pounds, and lacks projection at this point. Still, he's young for the class and only turned 21 shortly before the draft, so there's hope he could add a frankly necessary tick or two to his fastball in pro ball. It's hard to call anybody high floor these days, but as a durable lefty with four pitches he knows how to sequence, Molina is a high probably back-end starter and struck out three over two shutout innings in his first start at Low A Carolina.

13-395: LHP Joey Broughton, Northville HS [MI] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $535,000 ($385,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #143. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #168.
If the Brewers weren't going to sign Chris Levonas (plus a few other day three picks), Joey Broughton is more than a nice consolation price after they gave him late fourth round money to sign away from a Pittsburgh commitment. He was teammates with Phillies first round pick Dante Nori at Northville High School in the Detroit suburbs, making for possibly the best hitter/pitcher combination of any high school in the country. Broughton is a very interesting sleeper. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95-96, but it plays way above its velocity with huge riding action from a low release point, an uncommon combination. He has a big, two-plane curveball with nice finish, with the chance to become an above average or even plus pitch with added power. There's also a changeup in there that he hasn't fully gained feel for, but does flash some nice ones. It's a fairly athletic, crossfire delivery with a bit of longer arm action that can impact his command, but he repeats it well and has a chance to be average or better in that regard. The 6'2" righty has some projection but is pretty sturdily built right now, giving him every chance to start overall. This is a nice day three sleeper with real mid-rotation upside, showing the potential for three above average pitches from the left side.

15-455: RHP Travis Smith, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $462,500 ($312,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #218. MLB Pipeline: #179. Baseball America: #265.
This is an interesting pick and a case of the Brewers really trusting their talent evaluation as they hand Travis Smith fifth round money here in the fifteenth round. Smith was a highly regarded recruit out of Northern Kentucky, but missed his freshman season with both heart surgery and Tommy John surgery. He earned a full time role in the rotation in 2023, putting himself in early day two consideration heading into 2024, but he lost his spot in the rotation this past spring as he struggled to a wholly unremarkable season. He planned to transfer to Mississippi State for 2025, but the Brewers believe in the arm talent and gave him the money he was expecting before his tough season. Smith has a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 96-97 at peak, coming in with running and sinking life from a lower slot to avoid hard contact. He has a tight slider that works well off his fastball, which he can work into a cutter to split the difference, and also has a changeup that's a bit behind. Smith has had streaky command at Kentucky and struggled to stay ahead of hitters in 2024, leading to an elevated 12.5% walk rate but perhaps more concerning, just an 18.8% strikeout rate that represented the second lowest mark of any of the 54 college pitchers on my draft board. The Brewers will have to unlock better execution to get him missing bats at a higher rate, as the current product won't cut it in pro ball. The arm talent is certainly there, though, and Milwaukee thinks they can unlock it with perhaps some tweaks to the stuff and usage.

16-485: RHP Jayden Dubanewicz, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $665,000 ($515,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Brewers continued doing their thing, this time handing out another large bonus to Jayden Dubanewicz, who signed for early fourth round money to skip a Florida commitment. This one is a pure projection play. Dubanewicz is long and lanky at a listed 6'3", 160 pounds, looking like he could legitimately add fifty-plus pounds as he gets into a pro conditioning program. The fastball sits in the low 90's right now and only tops out around 92-93, so that added strength will be key. The fastball comes in with running and sinking action from a lower slot, while the slider is loopy but gets nice finish diving the opposite direction. His changeup is a third pitch but present. Dubanewicz is very raw and may need to hang back in complex ball for a little bit, but the Brewers believed he would have exploded at Florida and they'd prefer to have him explode in their own system. If it works out, the sky is the limit.

18-545: RHP Tyler Renz, Fox Lane HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $852,500 ($702,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #279.
The Brewers shelled out a lot of large bonuses on day three, but none were larger than the $852,500 handed to St. John's commit Tyler Renz – roughly the slot value for the #88 pick, mid-third round. Like Jayden Dubanewicz, he's a pure projection play. The fastball hovers around 90 and tops out around 93 in short stints with running action, so he'll certainly need to add velocity. He has nice feel for a slider with late bite, while his changeup is a distant third pitch. Renz is extremely projectable at a listed 6'4", 180 pounds, with a sturdy frame that looks fit to add that weight. He also has a free and easy delivery that helps him stay under control and fill the zone, giving him the potential for above average command in the long run. Renz is extremely young for the class, tying Diamondbacks second rounder Ivan Luciano for the second youngest player in the entire draft and not turning 18 until November. That adds to the projection in a big way, and if he can add about five MPH to his fastball while continuing to progress with his command, he has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher.

Monday, August 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers played the bonus pool game to perhaps a more extreme extent than any other team. They went way below slot for their first three picks at #18, #33, and #54, giving them closer to the slot values for the #25, #43, and and #63 picks, respectively, saving over $1.7 million in the process. Sandwiched around a couple more below slot bonuses in the fourth and fifth rounds, Milwaukee dumped went about a million dollars above slot, each, on Eric Bitonti and Cooper Pratt, giving them closer to the slot values for the #49 and #60 picks, respectively, at #87 and #182. From there, they saved another $600,000+ in rounds 7-10, then took a unique approach to day three with seven high schoolers and a JuCo arm, reeling in all but three of them with another $1.3 million in above slot bonuses. Still with us? Looking back after the dust settled, I'm actually pretty impressed by the class they pulled together. Milwaukee looked for bats early and I really like the bats they did grab, then pivoted to pitchers later in the hopes that some of their high school arms could be sleepers ready to break out with pro instruction. I'm very interested to see what this unique strategy nets them.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-18: 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $4.02 million. Signing bonus: $3.15 million ($871,400 below slot value).
My rank: #22. MLB Pipeline: #25. Baseball America: #23. Prospects Live: #27.
The Brewers started off this draft with a bang, grabbing one of the best power hitters in the country and saving nearly $900,000 in the process. Brock Wilken has been a sensation ever since he stepped foot on campus at Wake Forest, blasting 17 home runs as a true freshman and in all taking just three seasons to set the all time ACC home run record at 71. Between seasons, he was a menace in the Cape Cod League, slashing .271/.400/.471 over 73 career games with wood bats against elite pitching, and in 2023 had his best year yet slashing .345/.506/.807 with 31 home runs and a 58/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. Yes, he was playing in a hitter-friendly home park at a time when offense was up across college baseball, but the point remains – Brock Wilken can hit. He's a hulking, 6'4", 225 pound slugger that could continue to get stronger, showing off plus-plus raw power that plays to all fields even when he doesn't square it up. It's some of the most natural juice in the class, which could help him hit 40 home runs a year in the majors. Wilken is also a very patient hitter that grinds out his at bats, rarely chasing and doing well to spoil pitches he doesn't like. He mashes velocity but if there's one drawback to the offensive profile, it's that he can get into trouble with breaking balls in some of those deeper counts especially with breaking balls because his bat to ball skills are just average. Fortunately, with his power all he needs is to get most, not even all, of his barrel onto the ball and he can send it a long way. Even though strikeout questions do persist, he dropped his strikeout rate from 24.2% as a sophomore to 18.1% as a junior largely on the back of that disciplined approach. In the field, the Tampa-area native shows off a cannon right arm that will help him stick at third base in the short run, though he's a well below average runner with stiffer actions that may end up at first base in the long run. Still, he has plenty of bat to profile there. Wilken has a chance to hit in the middle of the Brewers' order for a long time. He's already off to a hot start in the minors, slashing .301/.458/.479 with a pair of home runs and a 22/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

CBA-33: RHP Josh Knoth, Patchogue-Medford HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2.54 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($543,800 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #41. Prospects Live: #47.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Brock Wilken, the Brewers saved another half a million dollars on Josh Knoth by giving him roughly the slot value for the 43rd pick here at #33, signing him away from an Ole Miss commitment in the process. Knoth shot up boards this spring with an exceptional run through his Long Island competition, showing improved stuff, strike throwing, and mechanics. He sits in the low 90's but now touches 98 with his fastball, a pitch which plays up further due to its riding life from a somewhat low release. His breaking balls have really come into their own this spring. The curveball, his more established weapon, has gotten more consistent with nasty two plane bite, while his newer slider has been more effectively incorporated into the arsenal and in all his innate ability to rip through a breaking ball is ahead of most of the class. Knoth's changeup is a distant fourth pitch, so that will be next up for him in his development. The 6'1" righty isn't the most physical, especially not standing next to Brock Wilken, but he has smoothed out his delivery a bit this spring as he has maintained his balance better through his long trunk rotation, leading to more strikes. You can slap an average grade on the command with a chance for better as he continues to get accustomed to his nasty arsenal, and his extreme youth (he didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft) further improves the profile. Knoth has a chance to be a legitimate #2 starter if he can take the next step with his changeup and maintain his command, with a profile led by plenty of velocity and a couple of plus breaking balls.

2-54: 3B Mike Boeve, Nebraska-Omaha {video}
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($296,100 below slot value).
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #61. Prospects Live: #84.
This is a fun profile for the Brewers, and it saves them nearly another $300,000 in the process. Hailing from the small town of Hastings in central Nebraska, he played his college ball at Nebraska-Omaha in the Summit League and has therefore never really been in the spotlight. However, he improved all three seasons at UNO and put together an exceptional 2023, slashing .401/.512/.563 with four home runs and a 9/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games. Simply put, Boeve was on another level compared to his peers. He utilized an exceptionally disciplined approach and elite bat to ball skills to strike out just 4.3% of the time and run a 90% contact rate, rarely chasing in the process and controlling the strike zone as well as anybody in the country. If you want to think of it as a product of average competition in the Summit League, he also slashed .278/.403/.339 in the elite Cape Cod League and ran a respectable 17.3% strikeout rate there too while walking at an excellent 15.8% clip. Boeve is not overly physical at 6'2",  but he has some sneaky power when he turns on the ball and has a tendency to spray hard ground balls and line drives around the field. The swing is certainly more geared for contact, prioritizing the ability to manipulate the barrel to meet the ball all over the zone and adjust to offspeed stuff. If the Brewers decide to change his game up a little, he does hit the ball hard enough to profile for fringe-average power, perhaps 12-15 home runs per season to go with his high on-base percentages. The defensive profile is more ordinary, as he has some arm strength and some range but not enough to shine on the infield. He'd make an adequate second or third baseman, which might stretch his range or arm a little bit, respectively. Boeve has hit the ground running in pro ball, slashing .370/.435/.630 with five home runs and a 14/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Wisconsin.

3-87: SS Eric Bitonti, Aquinas HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $796,200. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($953,800 above slot value).
My rank: #38. MLB Pipeline: #68. Baseball America: #59. Prospects Live: #57.
After saving on their first three picks, the Brewers began to unload those savings in a big way with Eric Bitonti, who signed for nearly a million dollars above slot value to drop an Oregon commitment. I'm a huge Bitonti fan, and I think he has a chance to be a really special player if things break right. Tall and athletic at 6'4", he has plenty of lean strength for now and projects to pack on plenty more as he develops. He does not get cheated at the plate, taking big, uppercut hacks from the left side that produce plus raw power right now and could get to plus-plus as he gets stronger. Right there, you already have something cooking. The overall polish in the box is a bit behind, as his barrel can get too steep at times when he's swinging for the fences and it's not all that accurate yet, either. On the bright side, he won't turn 18 until the offseason and is therefore one of the youngest players taken in the entire draft, which to me gives additional confidence that he'll make the adjustments he needs to make to acclimate to professional baseball. Defensively, his length and athleticism give him the a nice foundation at shortstop, but he'll likely move to third base as he fills out where his average speed and explosiveness will fit better. His plus arm will keep him on the left side of the infield. Overall, Bitonti is a bit rough around the edges and has not been quite as consistent as some scouts would like to see, but the upside is tremendous as a potential middle of the order threat that sticks on the infield. As expected, it's taking him a minute to acclimate to pro ball, slashing .179/.333/.410 with two home runs and a 15/9 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games in the Arizona Complex League.

4-119: RHP Jason Woodward, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $557,900. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($310,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jason Woodward went unranked on every public board I've seen, so this is certainly a bit of a surprise pick even if he signed for less than half of slot value. Woodward has been a three year contributor at Florida Gulf Coast and was off to a hot start in 2023, dominating Hofstra and UMass Lowell to the tune of a combined eleven shutout innings with fifteen strikeouts. However, he left his third start of the season early against Florida State and eventually had Tommy John surgery, so the Brewers clearly liked what they saw in February. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and I saw one video of a nice breaking ball, but otherwise there is not much information or video out there on his stuff. In the video of one pitch that I saw, he doesn't throw with a ton of effort and should be able to provide at least average command going forward, which is an extra boon with his high velocity. At 6'1", he still has some projection remaining and he's very young for the class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. The Florida native did get some exposure in the Cape Cod League last summer, and even though his 8.10 ERA was a little ugly, he controlled the zone nicely and put up a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings. It's likely that additional development of his secondaries will do him well to miss barrels against more advanced hitters. Woodward has beaten bone cancer twice, which is amazing for so many more important reasons off the field but also shows his fortitude to overcome adversity in professional baseball settings going forward.

5-155: RHP Ryan Birchard, Niagara County JC [NY] {video}
Slot value: $392,700. Signing bonus: $322,500 ($70,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #227.
The Brewers continued to save money with Ryan Birchard, a late-rising JuCo arm out of Upstate New York with a fun profile. After putting up two dominant seasons for Niagara County JC, where he produced a 1.43 ERA and a 171/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 combined innings, he really opened eyes in the MLB Draft League on the back of nine innings of one run ball, with sixteen strikeouts to just three baserunners over four appearances. Birchard is a power arm that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 in short stints with cut and ride. It's a plus pitch that carries the arsenal for now. His curveball shows plenty of bite and looks above average at its best, though he doesn't always get on top of it and it could use another tick or two of power. He's begun using a sweepier slider later in the season and it's quickly looking like another weapon for him, and at this point his changeup is a distant fourth pitch. The 6' righty has a bit of a stiff delivery that features effort and leads to fringy command, so that fact combined with his lack of a quality changeup and the tendency for his velocity to dip later in starts likely points him to the bullpen. He's also very young for a college sophomore and only turned 20 shortly before the draft, giving him plenty of time to clean up the rougher edges of his profile. Previously committed to UConn, he'll instead have a chance to work his way up as a power armed reliever. 

6-182: SS Cooper Pratt, Magnolia Heights HS [MS] {video}
Slot value: $309,900. Signing bonus: $1.35 million ($1.04 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #63. Prospects Live: #50.
There were rumors that Cooper Pratt was going to be a very tough sign away from a hometown Ole Miss commitment, and after he lasted into the middle of day two, it appeared that was the reality. However, the Brewers used their massive savings to this point on the draft to go over a million dollars above slot value to swoop in and sign him away, ironically giving him even a little bit less than he might have been expected to get in his projected second round range. In doing so, Milwaukee gets a stud here in the sixth round. Pratt is a long bodied, 6'4" shortstop that has earned comps to Gunnar Henderson from area scouts in the Deep South, though he's not quite at that level. He's an extremely selective hitter with one of the more polished approaches in the high school class, which should enable him to transition pretty smoothly from his northern Mississippi high school competition to pro ball. His big frame and long limbs give him great leverage in his right handed swing, which gives him average power for now but promises to provide at least above average power in the future as he fills out. Pratt does have some length in his swing and his pitch selection is ahead of his pure bat to ball skills, so there can be some swing and miss in the zone especially against well spotted breaking balls and high fastballs, the usual culprits. Overall, it's a very well-rounded offensive profile for a kid his age that could produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages at peak. An average runner, he may not have the range for shortstop but he does have the arm, with the ability to get plenty of carry on his throws even from a shorter arm stroke that enables him to get rid of the ball quickly. If he can retain his first step quickness, those supplemental tools could help him stick rather than move over to third, where he would be an above average defender. Pratt is a little bit old for the class, having turned 19 shortly before this article was published, a break from the Brewers' trend in this class. He's already swinging a hot bat down in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .356/.426/.444 with an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio through a dozen games.

11-332: RHP Bishop Letson, Floyd Central HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $482,600 ($332,600 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #179. Baseball America: #204. Prospects Live: #105.
The Brewers entered day three with plenty of unspent bonus pool money, so they made Bishop Letson the first of five over slot high school signings in the last ten rounds by giving him late fourth round money to sign away from a Purdue commitment. Letson is all about projection at this point. Previously sitting in the upper 80's, he came out with a low 90's fastball at the PBR Super 60 in February (video link) and regularly reached that velocity this spring, though he can dip back below 90 later in starts. The pitch has running life on it and figures to continue to add velocity. He spins a short, tight slider with both sweeping and diving action, and it has gotten more consistent this spring as he's gotten more comfortable with it. There's a changeup, too, which has taken a step forward. While it's not a particularly loud arsenal at present, he's extremely skinny at 6'4" with a ton of room to add good weight and the Brewers are jumping in early. The Louisville-area native has a reasonably smooth delivery and throws plenty of strikes, having performed very well against southern Indiana high school competition this spring and possessing all the building blocks for a #3 or #4 starter.

12-362: LHP Bjorn Johnson, Lincoln HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $420,500 ($270,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #248. Prospects Live: #406.
Milwaukee's next over slot bonus went to Bjorn Johnson, who picked up fifth round money to sign away from an Auburn commitment. He's another guy without loud "now" stuff that the Brewers will hope to bring along as an impact starter. He has an upper 80's fastball that gets up to around 92 at best, with running life from a lower slot. The breaking ball is fringy to this point and needs work, while his changeup gets nice fade and plays well off his fastball due to his arm slot. Johnson's delivery features heavy pelvic rotation that turns his arm into a bit of a whip, sometimes affecting his release point and his command. The Seattle native likely projects as a reliever but given the money Milwaukee gave him, they're likely interested in his potential to start long term.

14-422: RHP Hayden Robinson, Berwick HS [LA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
One of the more off-the-radar picks out of the high school class this year, Hayden Robinson comes from the small Atchafalaya River town of Berwick in deep southern Louisiana. Originally committed to Nicholls State just up the road in Thibodaux, he instead signed for early sixth round money to join the Brewers' system. Robinson is a smaller kid at a skinny six feet tall, currently sitting in the upper 80's with his fastball and touching 91 with riding action from a low release point. He can really spin a breaking ball, getting nice two-plane bite on his high spin slider, and shows feel for a changeup. Robinson does pitch with some effort, rocking back and forth throughout his delivery, and overall he'll need to find another gear to stick in the rotation. The Brewers are buying his athletic frame and ability to spin the breaking ball, hoping that velocity will come as he gets stronger even if he's not the tallest kid in the world. It's a fairly unique profile that makes for an interesting follow at the very least.

20-602: LHP Justin Chambers, Basha HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $547,500 ($397,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Brewers' final over slot pick was their largest of day three, handing Justin Chambers fourth round money here in the twentieth round to steer away from a Washington State commitment. Like Hayden Robinson, he's way off the radar and did not rank on any major lists, but the Brewers are clearly convicted here. He sits in the upper 80's and tops out around 92, with a fairly low launch and some carry on the pitch. His sweeping slider is ahead of his big, slow curveball, though both are inconsistent and require further refinement. Right now, I'd argue his best pitch is his changeup, with great fading action and plenty of feel to locate it, unlike many other high high schoolers. The 6'2" lefty has a bit of a stiff delivery at times but for the most part pounds the strike zone with authority. If Milwaukee can help him tack on some velocity and develop the offspeed stuff, Chambers looks like a potential #4 starter. The fact that he's extremely young for the class, turning 18 a month after the draft, also helps.

Friday, July 29, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers clearly had a type in this draft, with each of the first four position players they drafted standing 5'10" or shorter (and number five was still only an even six foot). They prioritized bat to ball skills and professional approaches at the plate, with college bats like Eric Brown, Robert Moore, and Matt Wood bringing a high floor with and Dylan O'Rae appearing to be a bit of a sleeper. The one pitcher they took early on, Jacob Misiorowski, has the exact opposite profile as a 6'7" fireballer with one of the most electric fastballs in the class. He signed for a much bigger bonus than many in the industry expected, which may jeopardize their prized day three selections. Just like last year, Milwaukee shot for the moon on day three and drafted numerous high end high school talents that appeared hell-bent on attending school, with the hopes of signing maybe two or three. Now with Misiorowski's big bonus, the most they can offer any individual day three prepster is just short of $700,000, which seems like it would not be enough to land either LSU commit in Brady Neal or Jaden Noot.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-27: SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #27.
Slot value: $2.70 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($651,900 below slot value).
The Brewers started off on the right foot by drafting Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown, long a favorite of analytics-driven scouts coming off his best year yet for the Chanticleers. In 57 games, Brown slashed .330/.460/.544 with seven home runs and an extremely impressive 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio, including five walks to just one strikeout at the Greenville Regional. The first thing you'll notice watching him play is his unique setup at the plate, in which he starts with his hands held right next to his ear while wiggling the bat back towards the third base dugout behind him. From there, he brings those hands forward across his cheek and points the bat head directly at the pitcher, then quickly brings them back to his back shoulder to get ready for the pitch. A traditional, square peg square hole coach would see this and scream about all the wasted movement, but Brown has impeccable timing and is always perfectly in position to hit when the time comes. From there, the Shreveport-area native stands out for his extraordinary plate discipline, with just enough patience to rarely chase pitches out of the zone but still plenty of decisiveness to attack pitches he likes. By swinging at good pitches, he's able to channel his wiry strength into consistently high exit velocities, employing a line drive approach that sends balls screaming around the diamond. Undersized at 5'10", he hasn't shown much over the fence power with just sixteen career home runs in 123 games at Coastal Carolina, but given his ability to sting the baseball with regularity he could tap into 15-20 home run power or more in the big leagues if he starts to lift it more often. While he lacks explosive athleticism, he's balanced and fluid at shortstop with a strong arm, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position. If not, he could be a plus defender at second or third base. Brown should move quickly through the minors and could hit atop the Brewers' lineup sooner rather than later.

2-63: RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Crowder JC. My rank: #66.
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($1.22 million above slot value).
Jacob Misiorowski is one of the more unique arms in this class, one who had some late helium and had interest much earlier in the second round. Signability pushed him down a bit and he signed with Milwaukee for more than double slot value (and more than Eric Brown received at the 27th pick), closer to the slot value of the 32nd pick. If you remember back to the 2019 draft, the Brewers picked up Wabash Valley JC lefty Antoine Kelly with the 65th pick, and Misiorowski at #63 is extremely similar. The 6'7" righty dominated at Crowder JC in southwestern Missouri, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 136/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings on the strength of his wicked stuff. It's a profile dominated by the fastball, as he sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's and can pop for triple digits at his best, coming from a lower release point with elite extension that gives it a ton of life beyond just its premium velocity. When located, it's truly one of the best fastballs in the entire class. Misiorowski also works in a short, power slider that gets into the upper 80's, though it's an average pitch on its own that missed a ton of bats at Crowder because hitters were so overwhelmed by his fastball. He doesn't throw much of a changeup for now, which will need to be a major emphasis in his development if he wants to start. The Kansas City-area native also struggles to keep his ultra long limbs in check, struggling to repeat his delivery at times and leading to below average command. As a JUCO sophomore, he only turned 20 in April and has plenty of time to figure things out. The Brewers will need to put a lot of work into this project in streamlining his delivery and developing his secondaries, but the upside is massive because you just can't teach the combination of power and extension he brings to the table. Kelly, a lefty, had the same height and a similarly explosive fastball out of Wabash Valley JC, but his secondaries and command were even less refined than Misiorowski's and he looks to be breaking out at High A Wisconsin this year.

CBB-72: SS Robert Moore, Arkansas. My rank: #104.
Slot value: $915,300. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($115,300 below slot value).
Robert Moore has another extremely unique profile, though it's on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Jacob Misiorowski. The son of Royals GM Dayton Moore, Robert graduated early from his Kansas City-area high school (in fact just 23 miles west of Misiorowski's high school) to enroll at Arkansas and set the world on fire as an underclassman. Despite playing his first college game at just 17 years old, he slashed .291/.388/.534 with 18 home runs in 76 games over his first two collegiate seasons. After hitting .351 for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, he entered this spring with sky high expectations and plenty of interest throughout the first round. However, 2022 did more to highlight the weaknesses in his game than the strengths, and he finished with just a .232/.374/.427 slash line, eight home runs, and a 46/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. So who is Robert Moore? Listed at just 5'9" and skinny at that, he doesn't stand out on the baseball field, but his intangibles absolutely do. He has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone for such a young hitter (he still only turned 20 in March), is completely unfazed by advanced stuff and makes hard contact to all fields. A switch hitter, Moore takes big, healthy hacks from both sides of the plate that helped him tap some solid pull side power as an underclassman, especially from the left side, but that power did not show up with wood over the summer and his unremarkable 2022 calls that power potential further into question. He'll likely have to resort to more of a line drive approach in pro ball, where he could hit 10-15 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at best if everything translates and he recaptures his 2020-2021 form. Defensively, Moore provides plenty of value with excellent instincts at second base, plenty of range, and just enough arm strength to get it done. The Brewers drafted him as a shortstop and there is a chance he could work there, with those instincts and range hopefully making up for his arm. Ultimately, I see a utility type that will be a great addition in the clubhouse, as he was known as a true catalyst at Arkansas that could fire up his team when they needed it.

3-102: SS Dylan O'Rae, Northern Collegiate HS [ON]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $600,700. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($3,200 below slot value).
This pick came completely out of left field, completely stumping the MLB.com analysts if you were watching. Dylan O'Rae was not ranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250, nor on the Baseball America 500 or the Prospects Live top 600. Undersized at 5'9" (much like Robert Moore directly above him), he will need to get much more physical to compete in the pro game, but the raw skills are absolutely there. O'Rae has very quick hands in the box with an explosive left handed swing, and as he puts on weight and physically matures, he could tap some solid power at the next level. He performed well at showcase events with good feel to use the whole field, and he's a plus runner that makes things happen. The Ontario product also plays a solid shortstop and could stick there, again, if he gets a little bigger and stronger, making this a very well rounded package. He signed with the Brewers rather than attend Illinois, where he could have emerged in three years as a second rounder with a track record of performance.

4-132: C Matt Wood, Penn State. My rank: #125.
Slot value: $448,400. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($100,900 below slot value).
The Brewers shored up their catching depth with an all-around contributor in Matt Wood. Wood was a solid catcher in State College before breaking out for a huge 2022, slashing .379/.480/.667 with 12 home runs and a 26/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's not overly physical at 5'10", but maximizes his offensive output with excellent plate discipline and feel for the barrel, producing a high quantity of hard hit baseballs to all fields that find grass and seats in bunches. He recognizes pitches well and doesn't swing and miss much, and while some of his college home runs may turn into doubles in pro ball, he should continue to spray the ball around the field with authority. The Pittsburgh-area native is also a better athlete than your average catcher and moves well behind the plate, though he does need some refinement with the finer aspects of catching. Overall, it's a profile that doesn't stand out in any particular area except perhaps his feel for hitting, but he has all the makings of a first division backup catcher or second division starter that can provide some impact in the box. Think perhaps 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is more than many catchers can claim nowadays.

14-432: RHP Aidan Maldonado, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125K.
The Brewers didn't draft any Wisconsinites this year, but they did get two Upper Midwesterners in Illinois-Chicago's Nate Peterson (from Lakeville, MN) and Minnesota's Aidan Maldonado. Maldonado grew up in Rosemount on the south side of the Twin Cities and less than a half hour drive from the Wisconsin border, then originally began his career at Illinois where he ran a 7.44 ERA over three seasons. Transferring back home to Minnesota this year, he was much more consistent and pitched to a 3.91 ERA and a 90/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 96, adding a sweepy slider and a bigger curveball. Maldonado has a violent delivery with a pronounced stabbing motion in the back, which previously held his command back to the point where he was unplayable on the mound for Illinois. He wrangled that command enough to get to 40, maybe 45 on his best days this spring, which suddenly helps his big stuff play up. The offspeed stuff can still be inconsistent and with a tendency to lose his arm slot and yank his pitches, he still doesn't locate well enough to crack it as a starter. But in shorter stints, he could be a nasty reliever that doesn't have to worry so much about game planning and holding things together for longer periods of time.

17-522: C Brady Neal, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #97.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Perhaps the biggest name of Milwaukee's day three splurge, Brady Neal would be a massive get if they can find the money. A second to fourth round prospect on most boards, he would have gone within the top one hundred picks if he had been more signable and it will likely require close to or over a million dollars to lure him away from an LSU commitment, which the Brewers don't have. Originally a member of the class of 2023, Neal reclassified to be a part of the 2022 class and has looked quite at home among the best players in the class. Despite not turning 18 until October, he takes very good at bats against high quality pitching, looking unfazed against premium velocity and breaking stuff. The barrel accuracy is a bit behind the plate discipline but it's catching up quickly, and his left handed swing has been looking better and better. Though he stands only 5'10", he has a chance at average or better power to go with a hit tool that will likely end up at least above average down the line. There are some questions about how much impact he'll ultimately provide at the plate, he's so advanced for his age that adding that impact can be a greater focus than most catchers. Like Matt Wood, he's very agile behind the plate and could even hold his own at an infield spot if need be, but he'll be a catcher going forward. While his game does need some overall refinement back there like you'd expect from a 17 year old, again, it's very advanced for his age.

18-552: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Champagnat Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #185.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely above $500K if he signs.
Ironically, the Brewers actually drafted a Dutch teenager out of Champagnat Catholic High School in the Miami area a year ago, and they'll do the same this year with Curacao native Jurrangelo "Loo" Cijntje (pronounced SAINT-juh). Aside from having quite possibly the coolest name in the draft, Cijntje is a living, breathing switch pitcher that will have a chance to continue doing his thing in the minors. He's sharper from the right side, where he can get up to 97 and comfortably deals in the low 90's, while his slider shows nice sweep. From the left side, he's more in the upper 80's and his slider lacks power, but it does show good depth. As you might imagine, he's an exceptional athlete that moves well on the mound and represents a great ball of clay for Milwaukee should he sign. Cijntje is very old for a high school senior having already turned 19 in May, but it's such a unique profile that the age isn't a huge deal. He's for sure a potential big league pitcher from the right side, and if he can add velocity and power to his stuff from the left side, he could do both in the majors. Regardless, he does need to tighten up his breaking balls and get more consistent with his command. Because he's already 19, he'll be eligible again in 2024 should he head to Mississippi State.

19-582: RHP Jaden Noot, Sierra Canyon HS [CA]. My rank: #118.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Jaden Noot, like Brady Neal and the already-signed Jacob Misiorowski, is committed to LSU and will require a massive bonus to sign. At this point, it looks unlikely after Misiorowski's massive bonus and the fact that he has been considered a tough sign throughout the process. Noot is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, and he's teeming with arm strength. The fastball comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's and he can touch as high as 97 while looking like he's just playing catch. His slider is his best offspeed, looking above average at its best, while his curveball shows big break but needs to add power and he lacks feel for his changeup coming out of his hand. Throwing without much effort, he's able to show solid command and could get to above average in that regard in the future, giving him at least a back-end starter's profile. The Los Angeles-area native is not a great athlete, with a short stride down the mound and an upright finish that's more reminiscent of old school innings eating starters than the explosive athletes like Misiorowski. Noot will have to watch his conditioning but the arm strength is undeniable. Should he end up in Baton Rouge, he could step into the weekend rotation relatively quickly and emerge as a much higher pick after three years of performance.

Saturday, August 7, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers deployed a really interesting draft strategy, going with exclusively established performers early on in their first six picks. In doing so, they definitely leaned more on floor than ceiling, going the low-risk route and hoping to get a solid group of major leaguers rather than cashing the chips in for one star. The script flipped on day three, however, when they went after numerous high end prep talents they thought thought they might maybe could sign with leftover money from second rounder Russell Smith ($440,000 below slot) and ninth rounder Brannon Jordan ($107,400 below slot), among others. They couldn't quite reel in Roc Riggio, Hunter Hollan, or Will Rogers, but they did land Caden Vire, Quinton Low, and Jace Avina, significantly adding to the upside in their class. My favorite pick was pretty easily Sal Frelick in the first round, because I thought he was a legitimate top ten talent, while I also liked Alex Binelas in the third round and simply the fact that they were able to land the trio of Vire, Low, and Avina on day three.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-15: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College. My rank: #7.
I love this pick for the Brewers. Sal Frelick was legitimately the second best college position player in this draft in my opinion and as a Nationals fan, I would have been very happy if we took him four picks sooner at #11. He'll follow in the footsteps of Garrett Mitchell as an ultra-athletic power conference outfielder, though his skill set is a bit different. In a year where many college bats underwhelmed, Frelick got off to a red hot start and maintained it all season long, slashing .359/.443/.559 with six home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. He's a plus hitter who can adeptly manipulate the barrel to make contact with virtually anything thrown at him, whether that's velocity or offspeed or whether it's in the zone or out. At times, he's willing to sacrifice his "A" swing in order to get the barrel to the ball, which saps his power, but it also helped him strike out in just 12.3% of his plate appearances this spring against very good pitching. Undersized at 5'9", there's plenty of twitchy strength to project on so when he does get good pitches to hit, he can still take you deep and projects for at least 10-15 home runs per season. Once on base, the Boston-area native shows plus speed that enabled him to steal 38 bases in 102 career games at Boston College, and that also serves him on defense, where his hustle and all out style of play should make him a plus defender in center field. Frelick gets high marks for his work ethic and enthusiasm for the game, giving him a chance to become a fan favorite in Milwaukee. I really like this kid and I think he will maximize his skill set, with the ceiling of a Denard Span type but with more power. He signed for $4 million, which was about $110,000 above slot value, and is slashing .467/.529/.667 through four games in the ACL.

CBA-33: 2B Tyler Black, Wright State. My rank: #45.
Tyler Black has been a favorite of the Midwest area scouting community for a while now, and a strong 2021 season pushed him into the national spotlight. He was exceptional as a freshman at Wright State (.348/.465/.614) but never got a chance to catch his stride in his shortened sophomore season (.239/.340/.370), then put it all together with a massive junior season by slashing .383/.496/.683 with 13 home runs and a 25/39 strikeout to walk ratio. Though Wright State doesn't face the toughest in-conference competition as a member of the Horizon League, he doubled off of Kumar Rocker on Opening Day and picked up five hits (including three home runs) in nine at bats in the Knoxville regional against Duke and Tennessee. Black is a professional hitter through and through, showing elite plate discipline and feel for the barrel that enable him to draw a ton of walks (16.7% career rate) and rarely strike out (10.1%), boding well for his transition to pro baseball. Not nearly the athlete that Frelick is, Black still taps above average game power because he is so adept at choosing pitches and executing on them when he gets them. To me, it's a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, and although he's an average runner, he's a good baserunner that went eleven for twelve in stolen base attempts this spring. The Toronto native won't provide a ton of value defensively as an adequate second baseman, but the bat is plenty good enough to profile every day. Adding to Black's allure is age, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He signed right at slot value for roughly $2.2 million.

2-51: LHP Russell Smith, Texas Christian. My rank: #202.
Okay, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but we can still draw some positives. Russell Smith has been an extremely consistent performer at TCU for three years now, posting a 3.51 ERA and a 163/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 career innings, including marks of 3.83 and 101/20 in 82.1 innings this season. A massive, 6'9" lefty, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 95, with the pitch playing up because of his feel for it. He can sink it when he needs to like a traditional tall pitcher, but unlike many others his size, he also puts nice ride on the pitch when he wants to, giving hitters multiple looks. The North Texas native adds a slider and a changeup, with both grading out as average based on pure movement but the latter playing up to at least above average again due to his feel for the pitch. With a clean, relatively low effort delivery, he pours in strikes and locates well within the zone, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the lack of a swing and miss breaking ball. The Brewers likely see him as a safe bet #4 starter whose feel for pitching will carry him through the minors relatively quickly, though he will turn 23 in September and was the oldest player drafted at the time he heard his name called in the second round. Smith signed for $1 million, which was roughly $440,000 below slot value and enabled the Brewers to reel in a couple bit overslot signings on day three.

3-86: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville. My rank: #64.
I mentioned during Sal Frelick's review that many other top college bats underwhelmed this spring, and while I specifically had Alex Binelas (and quite a few others) in mind when I wrote that, the Brewers are getting really nice buy-low value here in the third round. A product of Oak Creek High School in the southern Milwaukee suburbs (hometown pick!), Binelas had an exceptional freshman year at Louisville by slashing .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, then injured his hand in the second game of his sophomore season and didn't get back on the field before the shutdown. 2021 began as a disaster, as he picked up just two hits in his first eight games and was still hitting just .145 in mid-March. He heated up later in the season and the end result was respectable: .256/.348/.621, 19 HR, 51/21 K/BB. However, it was not enough to recover his stock from that early season slump, which could be a blessing in disguise for the Brewers since they were able to get him in the third round. Binelas shows plus raw power from the left side, a product of a lightning quick left handed swing and tremendous strength that enables him to absolutely sting the ball with elite exit velocities to all fields. He's gotten to that power consistently in games aside from that slump, blasting 33 home runs in 111 games at Louisville and at one point homering in four straight against Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Duke in early May. He also had a three homer game against Clemson in the ACC tournament. The Wisconsinite's problem, however, lies in his plate discipline. He'll likely always be a streaky hitter that struggles with swing and miss, meaning there's a chance he's never more than a power hitting bench/platoon bat. A third baseman for much of his Louisville career, he always looked choppy over there and moved to first base in 2021. In the shifting era, it's unlikely he moves back over to the hot corner without some serious improvements, and he may be best served as an adequate corner outfielder. There's a high ceiling here if Binelas can be "on" more than he's "off," with the chance for Joey Gallo-type numbers. He signed for $700,000, which was $300 over slot value. Maybe he used that money to take his family out to a fancy dinner or something. Through four games in the ACL, he has three hits in eleven at bats in addition to four walks.

4-116: RHP Logan Henderson, McLennan JC [TX]. My rank: #124.
Here's an interesting one. The industry was pretty split on Logan Henderson, who ranked #105 on the BA 500 but just #234 on MLB Pipeline and #268 at Prospects Live. I was definitely in the optimistic boat, so I like this pick. He was absolute money for McLennan JC in Waco, Texas this spring, putting up a 1.66 ERA and a 169/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings, playing a leading role as the Highlanders won the JUCO World Series. The undersized 5'11" righty lacks much projection, but his combination of youth, pitchability, and now-stuff makes him a very intriguing prospect nonetheless. His fastball has ticked up into the low 90's lately, getting up to around 94-95 at its best, and its high spin rates make it play almost like an "invisiball." He adds a distinct slider and curveball, neither of which are true swing and miss pitches but which get the job done, and his best pitch is a plus changeup. Henderson commands the zone extremely well, and given that he only turned 19 in March, that's extra impressive. There may not be a ton of ceiling here but he has as good a chance as any teenager to work his way into a big league rotation. The Houston-area native signed for slot value at $497,500, but unlike Alex Binelas I guess he couldn't convince Milwaukee to round up.

5-147: SS Ethan Murray, Duke. My rank: #197.
Ethan Murray is simply a ballplayer who lacks a carrying tool, but does a lot of things well. He's a career .292/.392/.432 hitter at Duke who looked like his usual self in 2021, slashing .297/.397/.440 with three home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. Murray has a high baseball IQ that has enabled him to be extremely consistent, managing the strike zone well and finding the barrel more often than not. Though he'll never be a big power threat, he does hit the ball hard and should continue to find holes and gaps, giving him plenty of extra base projection. There's a similar story on defense, where he makes all the routine plays at shortstop but lacks the athleticism to cut off balls deep in the hole and save runs. For that reason, the Charlottesville-area native has a pretty clear utility infield projection, someone who can tap 5-10 home runs per season and get on base but likely not earn any All Star appearances. If he does hit just enough to play every day, the glove would look really good at second base. He signed for $272,500, which was $95,900 below slot value, and has two hits in seven at bats so far in the ACL.

10-297: C Wes Clarke, South Carolina. My rank: #222.
The Brewers went for power to close out day two. Wes Clarke blasted eight home runs in his first six games in 2021 against Dayton, Winthrop, and Clemson, then kept mashing home runs all season long and finished with a .271/.428/.663 line, 23 home runs, and a 73/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. If you got back to 2020, he has 31 home runs in 73 games, and the 23 this year tied for the NCAA lead with Reds competitive balance pick and Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson. Clarke packs a ton of strength into his 6'2", 235 pound frame, consistently punishing mistake pitches while being perfectly willing to take his walks if pitchers don't come to him. That's the One Big Positive. The Lynchburg, Virginia-area native swings and misses a lot, and while he is battle tested against SEC pitching, pro ball might still be a bit of a transition for him. He was drafted as a catcher, but that might be a stretch and first base is the more likely scenario, where his well below average speed likely keeps him from being anything more than an average defender there. Clarke reminds me a little bit of a discount Aaron Sabato. He signed for $75,000, which was $70,500 below slot value, and has two hits in eight at bats (including a home run) so far in the ACL.

12-357: LHP Caden Vire, Skyview HS [WA]. Unranked.
The Brewers went a little crazy on day three, and their biggest bonus of the day went to Caden Vire. He's a complete and total wild card, one who might never make it past A ball but who could be the next best Brewers pitching prospect. The 6'6" lefty is rail thin, with a ton of room to add strength, and the fact that he doesn't even turn 18 until September bodes even better for his physical development. Vire has a ton of moving parts in his high effort delivery, which will likely need a complete overhaul, and it seriously impacts his command as he tends to sail pitches up and to his arm side or yank them at right handers' feet. The Portland-area native sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, just scraping 90, but he puts a lot of spin on the ball and figures to add significant velocity anyways. His slider requires projection as well but it comes with some late bite, missing plenty of bats when it's located. The Brewers have their work cut out for them and we shouldn't expect Vire in the big leagues any time soon, but if they get it right, he has a chance to be a big piece of their future rotation. Committed to Arizona State, he instead signed for $497,500, of which $372,500 counts against the Brewers' bonus pool.

14-417: OF Jace Avina, Spanish Springs HS [NV]. My rank: #230.
As with Caden Vire, the Brewers are hoping to strike gold with Jace Avina, an extremely talented prep bat who is unproven against better competition. He stands out for his athleticism around the diamond, with above average speed and a strong arm giving him a chance to play virtually any position. The glove might be a bit choppy for the infield and since the Brewers announced him as an outfielder, they may just stick him straight in the grass and let him develop there. At the plate, he's hit over power, which makes it extra difficult to project on him given his circumstances. Avina wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit and played his high school ball in the Reno area, where the competition isn't the greatest, so his strong hit tool is pretty untested. He does show a quick bat from the right side and hits the ball hard consistently, and if he adds a bit of loft to his relatively flat swing, he has a chance for average power. It's the kind of player that could make it to campus and quickly increase his stock when his performance doesn't drop off against better competition, and the Brewers believed that would have happened at Nevada so they are buying him out early. Avina signed for $255,900, of which $130,900 counts against the bonus pool.