2023 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

The Reds went all over the place playing games with their bonus pool, not handing out a signing bonus anywhere close to slot value (either way above or way below) until their sixth pick. They went way above slot on a trio of high schoolers in second rounder Sammy Stafura, fourth rounder Cole Schoenwetter, and fourteenth rounder Kyle Henley, paying for those overages with sizable below slot bonuses to first rounder Rhett Lowder and third rounder Hunter Hollan in addition to other smaller scale savings elsewhere. Overall, I like a lot of the talent they pulled in and I can at least see the logic in the picks I didn't like as much, and you can't deny that there is a ton of talent in this class. Interestingly, only three of the nine pitchers the Reds drafted and signed have gotten on a mound in games so far, and only two have thrown more than one inning total.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-7: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $6.28 million. Signing bonus: $5.7 million ($575,200 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #8. Prospects Live: #9.
LSU ace and eventual first overall pick Paul Skenes deservedly earned most of the buzz this spring among college pitchers, but Skenes aside, no pitcher in the country was as impressive as Rhett Lowder. Already the reigning ACC Pitcher of the Year from 2022, he put together an unbelievable 2023 with a 1.87 ERA and a 143/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park and in an era of increased offense around college baseball. Lowder has always shown impressive pitchability, enabling him to jump into the Wake Forest rotation as a true freshman, and now with improved stuff he has become an elite prospect. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 97 with some run. He shows strong feel for an above average slider that has gotten better and better, with some flashing plus. His changeup is a true weapon and his best pitch, consistently grading out as plus while flashing plus-plus. Everything plays up because Lowder sequences and locates his entire pitch mix extremely effectively, with plus command that lets him attack hitters however he wants to. The 6'2" righty has an uptempo delivery but repeats it extremely well, effectively channeling energy up the chain and helping him maintain his stuff deep into starts. In an era of high energy pitchers modeling their games after guys like Max Scherzer, Lowder provides a bit of a contrast with a calmer demeanor as he quietly carves up opposing lineups. He's a watercolor artist in his spare time and looks like an artist up there on the mound, where his attention to detail makes him a bit of a throwback prospect. Besides Skenes, there is not a safer bet to become a mid-rotation starter in this draft class.

CBA-38: RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($127,600 below slot value).
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #58. Baseball America: #44. Prospects Live: #55.
Ty Floyd has been a known commodity to scouts for a long time now. A star at Rockmart High School in Northwest Georgia, he ranked as the #98 player on my board in 2020 but elected to attend LSU to help build what would become a National Championship program. Eligible as a sophomore in 2022 due to an early birthday, he looked good but hadn't quite put it together yet, coming in at #198 on my board. In 2023, he slowly crept up boards throughout the season and pushed back into the top one hundred range, then saw his stock explode with a magnificent seventeen strikeout performance against Florida in that National Championship series. Overall, he finished the season with a 4.35 ERA and a 120/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings and eventually pushed his way all the way into the top forty picks. Floyd is a great athlete that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, coming in with deceptive riding life from a lower slot and short arm action. Previously all arm strength, his secondaries have stepped forward that year and that made all of the difference in his profile. He now complements his average curveball with a new, above average slider, while a previously below average changeup has stepped forward to become a usable weapon. His command has improved from below average to fringy as he smoothed out his delivery, though that is one area the Reds would like to see him continue making progress. Between the arm strength, athleticism, physicality (listed at 6'2", 200 pounds), and positive trajectory on his secondaries and command, the Reds believe they have a mid-rotation starter on their hands with some real upside.

2-43: SS Sammy Stafura, Walter Panas HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($499,300 above slot value).
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #33. Prospects Live: #25.
The Reds got a tremendous talent here in Sammy Stafura, and for half a million above slot vale, they really didn't have to break the bank to sign him away from a Clemson commitment. He was a known prospect heading into the spring, but really pushed his stock up with a tremendous performance once the New York weather warmed up. Stafura has always been a high contact bat, with quick hands and excellent feel for the barrel that help him keep swing and miss to a minimum, even against high quality competition. The bat path is a bit swoopy and will need to be ironed out so he can get more extension, but he's a cold weather bat and it hasn't hindered him yet. Though he's not huge at 6', 190 pounds, he has filled out a bit and now projects for average power, which will go great with his above average hit tool. Overall, it will be plenty of bat to profile in an every day role because he has a chance to be a plus defender at shortstop. Beyond his plus speed, he shows great body control at the shortstop position with a strong arm that makes him a great fit to stick there long term. There are some questions about his bat coming from a lower competition level in New York's Hudson Valley region, though from what I saw over the summer he had no issues with advanced pitching. I see him as a high on-base guy with the ability to pop 15-20 home runs per season and swipe a few bags while playing strong defense. He got off to a poor start in the Arizona Complex League, where he slashed .071/.212/.190 with one home run and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he'll look to turn it around in 2024.

3-74: LHP Hunter Hollan, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $975,100. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($377,600 below slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #144. Prospects Live: #150.
The Reds went for a little more safety here with Hunter Hollan, a college arm with some strong SEC performance under his belt. Hollan began his career at San Jacinto JC in Houston, then transferred to Arkansas for his junior season and looked like a star in fall practice, where his stuff ticked up across the board. It settled back down in 2023, where he finished with a 4.13 ERA and a 74/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, and the Reds signed him for a significant discount in the third round by giving him mid-fourth round money. After fluctuating a little, he now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which topped at 97 in the fall, and he can work it into a hard cutter around 90 when he wants some movement. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which have big depth but may benefit from some added power. An average changeup rounds out the arsenal. The 6'5" lefty is probably more of a pitchability guy at this point, effectively commanding both his fastball and his offspeed stuff to both sides of the plate so he can work them off each other and execute the game plan. There's still some projection remaining on his big frame too, so if he regains the added power he had in the fall of 2022, he has a shot to become a mid-rotation starter. The more likely role is probably that of a back-end starter since he doesn't really have a putaway pitch at this point, but with his deep arsenal, size, and pitching acumen, he should develop into a nice innings eater for the Reds. 

4-105: RHP Cole Schoenwetter, San Marcos HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $640,300. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($1.26 million above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #54. Prospects Live: #63.
Here in the fourth round, the Reds spent massively above slot to reel in Cole Schoenwetter, giving him close to the slot value for the #45 pick to sign away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment here in the fourth round. He brings a great combination of stuff, projectability, and and athleticism, and the Reds are betting big on his front of the rotation upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 at best, with riding and running action from a lower release point that make it very tough to square up. He flashes plus with a big, power curveball with two plane action and also shows an inconsistent changeup, though it too looks like an above average pitch at best and should get there consistently with more refinement. The 6'3" righty has better command than you would expect from someone with stuff as explosive as his, though he can be prone to overthrowing and goes through bouts of wildness. The development path is pretty clear here. Schoenwetter will need to refine that changeup a little bit, which should be accomplishable by repetition alone, and he'll need to learn to better keep his long arms and legs in sync as he works through his delivery. Given his feel for spin, it would be nice to add a slider to give hitters another look, but that would be icing on the cake. If the Southern California native can accomplish those things, he has a chance to be an impact arm for the Reds.

5-141: C Connor Burns, Long Beach State {video}
Slot value: $451,100. Signing bonus: $448,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #130. Prospects Live: #233.
Connor Burns was on my radar at the end of the draft cycle, but he was among the next group of names that I didn't quite get around to researching (it always has to end somewhere). Burns has a unique profile, and it will be fun to track his progress. He was completely useless with the bat over his first two seasons at Long Beach State, slashing .161/.219/.249 with four home runs and an ugly 82/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games, but he still got his name penciled in every day because of his defense. Burns is an elite defensive catcher, and that may be putting it lightly. He's extremely twitchy for a catcher, popping out of his crouch as quickly as anybody to make plays on balls other catchers can't reach. It also helps him put his throws right on the money to cut down potential stolen bases no matter where the pitch is. Few catchers I've ever seen can make a play on a ball in the dirt and to his left or right and recover in time to cut down a runner. He can throw from multiple angles with precise accuracy, and beyond that, his plus-plus arm strength means he's getting it there in a hurry. In today's era of larger bases and more steals, that's an extremely valuable profile to have. So if he can hit at all, that's huge. Fortunately, Burns broke out with the bat in 2023, slashing .300/.368/.596 with 14 home runs and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. After striking out 38.1% of the time over his first two seasons while walking just 5.6% of the time, he brought those together with a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He's still an aggressive hitter, but the chase rate is now under control, though he swings and misses a lot on balls both inside and outside the zone and that's an area for concern. He does show average power with a 90th percentile exit velocity approaching 105, and he homered four times in 23 games on the Cape last summer despite otherwise struggling with the bat. With his elite defense, the Southern California native should have a pretty safe path to the big leagues as a light hitting backup catcher. If he can make just enough contact to tap his power in games, he could play every day and hit at the bottom of the lineup. So far, he's slashing .173/.304/.373 with three home runs and a 43/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you might expect given his profile.

6-168: OF Ethan O'Donnell, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $348,400. Signing bonus: $307,500 ($40,900 below slot value).
My rank: #193. MLB Pipeline: #153. Baseball America: #153. Prospects Live: #119.
Ethan O'Donnell began his career at Northwestern, then transferred to UVA for his junior season and put up a huge year, slashing .354/.448/.587 with 13 home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. There is no standout tool here, but his track record of performance speaks for itself. He uses a whippy left handed swing to spray line drives around the field while showing some pop to the pull side, though with below average top end exit velocities, I'm not sure how much he'll be able to tap that power in pro ball. He's an aggressive hitter, but he makes it work by making plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone, and he made the jump from Big Ten to ACC pitching with ease last spring. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with a strong glove in center field, likely enough to stick there long term. I see him as bit of a similar pick to last year's CBB pick Justin Boyd, with fourth outfielder upside if he can hold back on quality offspeed stuff and continue to make the most of his modest raw power in games. He's off to the hottest start in the Reds' draft class, slashing .326/.423/.537 with four home runs and a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.

8-221: 1B Carter Graham, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $215,400. Signing bonus: $212,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #218. Prospects Live: #285.
In Carter Graham, the Reds are buying the power exclusively. He barely played as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore in 2022, when he slashed .331/.399/.642 with 22 home runs and established himself as one of the best hitters in the conference, but he struggled over the summer on the Cape (.200/.262/.293) and got off to a slow start in 2023. After hitting .067 over his first eight games, he slowly started to turn it around through March and April but never really got going until May, where he turned on the jets and ended up finishing the season slashing .315/.390/.558 with 15 home runs and a 55/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Graham has tremendous raw power that has helped him blast 37 home runs in 138 games over the past two seasons, and it will no doubt play up in pro ball. The hit tool is a bit more questionable, but he can get aggressive and doesn't have the pure bat to ball skills to make up for swinging at bad pitches. It's a quick right handed swing but it can get swoopy and stiff at times, likely playing in to that below average hit tool. At 6'2", 230 pounds, the Los Angeles native doesn't look like an athlete but he moves pretty well at first base, so while that's about the only position he can play with his below average speed, he'll make it work. His defensive limitations will put pressure on his bat, and unless he takes a step forward with his hit tool, he likely profiles as a platoon bat or bench option. So far, he's slashing .205/.321/.318 with one home run and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.

11-318: 1B Jack Moss, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #209. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #191. Prospects Live: #166.
Jack Moss was the very last player on my rankings, but he's still an interesting prospect. He spent his freshman season at Arizona State before transferring to Texas A&M as a sophomore, where he has done nothing but rake to the tune of a .368/.447/.493 slash line, ten home runs, and a 93/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games in two seasons. Moss is an extraordinarily professional hitter that takes great at bats, running low chase rates and high contact rates on his way to walking more than he struck out in 2023. It's an opposite field-heavy approach, as he loves to get his hands inside the ball and drive them to left even on inside pitches. This inside-out approach does limit his power, and trying to elevate the ball more in 2023 didn't help his in-game power output. He doesn't leave the yard often and he doesn't always drive the ball with authority, leading to a well below average 90th percentile exit velocity which is concerning. He does show solid pull side power when he turns on the ball, but does so much more effectively on a line than in the air. The Reds could try to overhaul his approach a little bit and bump that 40 grade power up to 50 by sacrificing some hit tool, but I'm not sure he's built for that. Meanwhile, he's limited defensively and he'll need to hit for impact to work his way up, so he may not have a choice. So far, he's slashing .303/.405/.333 with a 20/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you'd expect from his profile.

14-408: OF Kyle Henley, Denmark HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $395,000 ($245,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #269. Prospects Live: #437.
The Reds pulled out the checkbook one more time here in the fourteenth round, where they gave Kyle Henley fifth round money to sign away from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's going to take some patience to develop, as he's fairly raw, but there is a ton of upside. Henley immediately stands out for his elite speed, which is truly a game changer when he gets a chance to turn it loose. A right handed hitter, he has very quick hands in the box that help him fling the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He's extremely projectable at 6'3", 180 pounds, so while the power isn't really there yet, he has a very good chance to grow into it with his size and bat speed. The hit tool is coming along as well, looking better in the spring against strong Atlanta-area competition than it did last summer against national showcase competition. All put together, the upside is tremendous, though of course it needs to be put together. Henley's plus-plus speed also helps him in center field, where he shows a solid arm and could develop into a well above average defender. He saw brief action in the Arizona Complex League, picking up three singles in thirteen at bats (.231 AVG) while striking out five times in four games.

The top 7 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2023

The draft is behind us, the signing deadline is behind us, and most importantly from my perspective, all thirty team by team draft reviews are behind me, so it's time to take a look at the guys who didn't sign. Those kids are back on campus now enjoying Week 1 of college football and taking part in fall practice to get ready for the 2023 season. Well, maybe not Jace Grady or Isaiah Thomas since Dallas Baptist and Lewis-Clark State don't have a football team. Usually I let this list go ten deep, but my personal draft list of 225 players, only six college players are returning to school. So here are those six, plus Colby Halter frankly because he's a famous name to help flesh this list out a little and one more bonus name at the bottom:

1. RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My 2022 draft rank: #127.
Miami already returns a young roster for 2023 but is getting a huge boost with Andrew Walters unexpectedly coming back for his senior season. He was drafted in the eighteenth round by the Orioles and had a chance to sign when it became apparent that third rounder Nolan McLean would not, but that money went to seventeenth rounder Carter Young instead and Walters is happy to return to Coral Gables. After beginning his career at Eastern Florida State JC near his hometown of Palm Bay, he transferred to Miami as a sophomore in 2021 and excelled, earning a larger role in 2022 and posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings this spring out of the bullpen. He carved up ACC hitters with just one pitch for the most part, a riding mid 90's fastball that tops out around 99 that hitters just could not pick up. He hides it extremely well and executes his locations, so hitters could sit on it and still come up empty. Walters adds a slider but it's a below average pitch, lacking bite and offering more a change of pace than anything else. If the Hurricanes want to, they can move the 6'4" righty into the rotation given his above average command, strong frame, and repeatable delivery, especially now with Carson Palmquist and Alex McFarlane gone to the Rockies and Phillies, respectively. A move to the rotation would really test his ability to execute that fastball over long periods of time, but the hope is that he can sharpen that slider into at least an average pitch to more effectively handle extended innings. To start in pro ball, he'll also need a changeup, but it would be perfectly reasonable for Miami to just send Walters back out in the bullpen as one of the best relievers in the ACC.

2. RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: #131.
Brandon Sproat going unsigned was a surprise, as the Mets drafted him in the third round but couldn't come to terms, making him the second highest drafted player to go unsigned after Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean. The Florida pitching staff usually gets raided during the draft, and as always they were prepared to replenish with a deep pool of underclassmen and a premium transfer in Hurston Waldrep from Southern Miss. Getting Sproat back on top of that is huge, and it gives the Gators one of the SEC's best staffs overall. He has always flashed huge arm strength from the right side but was held back by command, then took a big step forward in that regard as he moved into the rotation this spring to the tune of a 3.41 ERA and an 82/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. He sits in the mid 90's as a starter but can touch triple digits in relief, though the fastball can play a bit true and he didn't miss as many bats in 2022 as you'd like for someone that throws that hard. The Pensacola-area native has two quality secondary pitches in a solid slider that flashes above average as well as a changeup that looks plus at its best, and more effectively mixing those pitches in could help him miss more bats as well. His command has improved to fringe-average and he gets down the mound very well, lending hope that he can stick as a starter long term when that may not have been the projection heading into the season. To do so, he'll have to hold that command together and probably get a little more consistent with his breaking ball, and it would also be nice if he could find a way to put more life on his fastball. With a September birthday, the 6'3" righty is on the older side and will be nearly 23 when the 2023 draft rolls around.

3. RHP Colby Holcombe, Mississippi State (via Northeast Mississippi JC). My 2022 draft rank: #169.
For the second year in a row, Mississippi State will get one of the country's most talented JuCo arms to campus, but they'll hope for better results than Andrew Walling after he pitched just three innings this spring. Colby Holcombe spent his freshman year at Northeast Mississippi JC in Booneville, where he was downright dominant at times and posted a 2.60 ERA and a 115/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings. He had some duds, including three starts where he allowed at least five runs, but also had three different starts in which he went at least seven innings, allowed no runs, no more than two hits, no more than two walks, and struck out at least a dozen. Holcombe has overpowering stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 99. At this point, he doesn't always hold that velocity deep into his starts, but the arm strength is there. He spins two vertical breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, with the former coming in harder and the latter showing deeper bite. The Florence, Alabama native also works in a changeup, but he doesn't need it much and it's behind his other pitches. Holcombe is very young, only set to turn 20 in December, and will stay in Starkville for two years before he's draft eligible again. That gives him plenty of time to build up his stamina in a starting role and refine his fringy command, especially given his huge 6'7" frame that can make it difficult to keep his long levers in sync. His fastball also plays a bit true, which wasn't an issue when he was blowing it by hitters at Copiah-Lincoln Community College but could come into play in the SEC. Still, if he can sit consistently in the mid 90's, it remains a very good fastball.

4. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist. My 2022 draft rank: #179.
It was a surprise to see Jace Grady go undrafted, but I guess he has unfinished business in Dallas. Grady broke out as a sophomore for the Patriots a year ago then continued to rake in the Cape Cod League, leading to talk he could go in the top two rounds this spring. While he still finished with strong numbers in 2022, slashing .310/.419/.509 with ten home runs and a 60/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, he wasn't quite as consistent as many hoped and looked more like a day two candidate than a day one pick. For that reason, he'll head back to Dallas Baptist and try again. Grady has a strong all-around game that fits very well in college, showing an all fields approach with some power to the pull side that played up with wood bats on the Cape. He made a lot of early count contact last spring, where he only walked or struck out in 26.8% of his plate appearances, but he often worked deeper this spring as that rate jumped to 36.1%. Similarly, many of his doubles and triples a year ago turned into home runs this spring, but that came with an increased strikeout rate from 15.8% to 21.7%, which is a bit too high for his profile. He'll look to get that back down in 2023 and play within himself. The Central Texas native stands just 5'9" and does possess some power, but he's at his best when he lets it come naturally instead of actively trying to tap it. He's also an above average runner that runs the bases well and could stick in center field once he does head to pro ball, though his below average arm would push him to left if he can't. At Dallas Baptist in 2023, he'll look to cut that strikeout rate back down and prove he can stick in center, where he would be much more likely to find an every day MLB role than in left.

5. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My 2022 draft rank: #190.
Nolan McLean was the highest drafted player to go unsigned this year, going to the Orioles at #81 overall to open the third round. Baltimore wound up signing seventeenth round pick Carter Young to a massive $1.33 million bonus, while McLean will head back to Oklahoma State. McLean came to Stillwater with a chance to earn some reps under Mike Gundy at quarterback, but never played a snap and is focusing on baseball, specifically playing both ways. Originally thought of as a better pitching prospect at Garner High School in the Raleigh area, his bat came on late but he went undrafted in 2020, then at Oklahoma State he was almost exclusively a hitter as a freshman in 2021. He got more reps playing both ways in 2022, and it's still not clear where his future lies, though the Orioles did draft him as a pitcher. McLean does have more experience as a hitter and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games this spring. The power is the real calling card, as he possesses plus-plus raw juice (evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field bomb) from a strong 6'3" frame and an extremely leveraged right handed swing. When he gets his arms extended and gets the barrel to the ball, he can absolutely mash a baseball like very few other amateur hitters in the country. Meanwhile, his 107 strikeouts set an all time Division I record, so swing and miss is a big part of his profile. He's moderately disciplined in the box but there is very little adjustability in his grooved swing, making him very much a mistake hitter and causing him to struggle when he doesn't pick the pitch up immediately out of the hand. Upon returning to school next year, cutting that strikeout rate from 36.9% down to something around 25% or better will be a priority. On the mound, he put up a 4.97 ERA this spring with a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, all out of the Cowboys bullpen. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets into the upper 90's, and he also shows feel to spin a breaking ball with both a curve and a slider that are trending up. His command remains below average and he's likely a reliever, but going back to school will allow for more clarity on his profile with just 27.1 career innings under his belt. With Victor Mederos (Angels), Bryce Osmond (Angels), Trevor Martin (Rays), and Kale Davis (transferred to Oklahoma) all gone from the Oklahoma State pitching staff, McLean will get a great opportunity to step into a bigger role in 2023.

6. RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #198.
LSU was already in a great spot after landing massive transfers like Tommy White, Christian Little, and Paul Skenes, among others, in addition to bringing in a hugely talented freshman class. Getting back Ty Floyd, one of the most talented young arms on their pitching staff, is icing on the cake. Floyd was one of the most talented young arms on the LSU staff in 2022 and probably wasn't quite pro ready, so returning to Baton Rouge is probably the best move for his career. This past year, he had a 3.77 ERA and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, mostly as a starter. Out of high school, he showed tremendous athleticism and projection that just needed refinement, and two years later, he's made modest improvement but remains raw. Floyd's fastball can touch 95 early but settles more in the low 90's as the game progresses, adding a slurvy breaking ball and a seldom used changeup. The fastball plays above its velocity because it comes in with a flat approach angle from short arm action, especially when he gets it up in the zone. It was good to see him hold up in a starting role this spring, though going back to LSU will give him the opportunity to tighten up that breaking ball a bit and help it find its identity, in addition to refining his nascent changeup. If he can do those two things while holding down decent command, pro teams will be very interested to get the live armed 6'2" righty into their system. There is a lot of untapped potential to be found here, but he hasn't quite put it together yet.

7. 2B Colby Halter, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Colby Halter was one of the bigger prep names to reach campus out of the class of 2020, then made an immediate impact as a freshman by slashing .302/.379/.453 in 49 games. With high expectations for 2022, he took a step back and finished at just .240/.338/.380 with eight home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games as a draft eligible sophomore. Halter did find his stroke a bit in the elite Cape Cod League this summer, slashing .288/.391/.471 with seven home runs in 43 games (.304/.418/.511 before the draft), but still went unpicked as he looks to rebuild his stock. He has a very long track record of hitting dating back to his prep days, with the 2022 college season being the only time in his amateur career where he has looked anything but stout at the plate. The Jacksonville native makes good all fields contact when he stays within himself, though he got power conscious this spring and struck out at a 22.4% clip. His strong Cape run really helped reestablish his power potential, and because of that he has a shot for fringe-average power in pro ball. If he can get back to keeping it simple at the plate and get his strikeout rate safely below 20% next spring, he could be drafted somewhere on day two. It's a moderately attractive defensive profile as well, as he handled second base and third base capably for Florida and brings some versatility once he gets to pro ball.

Bonus: OF Isaiah Thomas, Lewis-Clarke State. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Isaiah Thomas is coming back. He ranked #109 on my 2021 list after slashing .305/.361/.583 with 13 home runs and a 63/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games at Vanderbilt, but went undrafted and came out at #5 on this same list a year ago. Instead of returning to Vanderbilt, he stepped away from the game for mental health reasons and didn't appear in a game in 2022. Now, it appears he's ready to go again, originally transferring across the country to Oregon before switching late to Idaho NAIA powerhouse Lewis-Clark State. Given that he'll turn 23 a few months before the next draft and hasn't swung a bat since 2021, it's hard to know what to make of the South Florida native, but expectations are high for 2023. He possesses plus raw power from a strong, lean, explosive 6'3" frame, and he tapped it consistently in games against an SEC schedule. He did so despite an extremely aggressive approach that led to a 25.8% strikeout rate and just a 3.7% walk rate, but his barrel is so accurate that it didn't hinder him at all. After swinging at nearly everything in 2021, he'll look to shore up that approach at Lewis-Clark State and force pitchers to come to him, if only to show teams that he can stay disciplined once he hits pro ball. Still, there aren't many hitters in college baseball that can scorch the ball like Thomas. Last time we saw him on the field, he was an above average runner with an above average arm, making for a very strong profile in right field, and it remains to be seen where the Warriors deploy him in 2023.

2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Pitchers

Personally, I love watching Friday night duels in college baseball, and the shortened 2020 draft means we'll have more pitching talent heading to school than ever before. Carson Montgomery headlines the incoming freshman class as a fringe-first rounder who wanted to head to Florida State, while Miami managed to bring on not one but two of the top four, at least by my pre-draft rankings. Other big programs like Vanderbilt, LSU, and Texas jumped on there, while San Diego State lost Ricky Tiedemann when he decided to switch it up to Long Beach Community College, where he'll be draft-eligible again in 2021. Personally, my two "sleeper" picks from this list are Ryan Hagenow and and Nick Griffin, the latter of which reminds me of Asa Lacy as a high schooler.

1. RHP Carson Montgomery (my draft rank: 39)
Windermere HS [FL] -> Florida State
The top player on my rankings to go undrafted, Carson Montgomery is set to jump into a Florida State rotation that lost CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays, second round) and Shane Drohan (Red Sox, fifth round) as well as Antonio Velez (Marlins, undrafted) out of the bullpen. Van Eyk and Drohan were big draft names in their own right out of high school in 2017, ranking 107th and 118th on my draft list that year, so bringing on blue chip recruits is nothing new for FSU. Montgomery is a 6'2" right hander with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and his extremely loose right arm makes him even more projectable. For now, he has a low 90's fastball that he can run up to 96, and he's working on maintaining that velocity a little better. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent slider that can flash plus at its best, and he throws a sneaky good changeup that he doesn't use as often. His command is fairly inconsistent as well, but he's very young for an incoming freshman and won't even turn 18 until August. Montgomery might need a little bit of refinement throughout his freshman year but I imagine that by the time he's a sophomore, he'll be a true ace for the Seminoles. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Ryan Hagenow (my draft rank: 52)
Farragut HS [TN] -> Kentucky
I took a bit of a gamble on Ryan Hagenow, who ranked 52nd on my list but 68th on MLB Pipeline and 194th on Baseball America. I really like his upside though, and I have a feeling he's going to spend his three years in Lexington and turn into a monster. He's an uber-projectable 6'5" righty out of the Knoxville area who has a lot to work on, but I think he has a lot going for him as well. His fastball velocity isn't quite there yet, sitting around 90 for the most part and topping out around 93, but his loose arm puts nice movement on the pitch and portends to future velocity gains. His slider is average for now, flattening out at times but also showing some nice depth down in the zone when he gets it right. Adding some power and consistency in college could make it a plus pitch. To me, his best pitch right now is his changeup, with great fading action to the arm side. He does a decent job of throwing strikes, but he needs to smoothen out his delivery a little bit, which I believe he will. I love the way his arms and legs work in his delivery and he could easily add 20-30 pounds at school, which should help him add power to his fastball and slider. In a best case scenario, I could really see him coming out for the 2023 draft with three plus pitches and a starter's frame, which would easily put him in the first round. There's a long way to go, and I don't think he'll slot directly into Kentucky's weekend rotation right away, but he is relatively young for the class with a June birthday and I have a good feeling about him. Pre-draft profile here.

3. RHP Victor Mederos (my draft rank: 57)
Westminster Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami did a fantastic job of holding its talented recruiting class together, and it's a good thing because they lost their entire weekend rotation in Slade Cecconi (Diamondbacks, comp round), Chris McMahon (Rockies, second round), and Brian Van Belle (Red Sox, undrafted), plus reliever Tyler Keysor (Reds, undrafted). Headlining the incoming recruits, at least as far as my list goes, is Victor Mederos, a Cuban-born pitcher who fled the country with his mother and brother when he was six years old and settled in Miami. The big 6'4" righty has as strong an arm as anyone in this class, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball he can run up to 96. He has two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider that can flash plus, with the former showing great depth and power at times and the latter coming in with harder velocity. There is a solid changeup as well, and Mederos aggressively attacks hitters with all four, though the two breaking balls can blend into each other at times. That aggressiveness can hurt him more than it helps him at times, with a tendency to overthrow and lose his arm slot and therefore strike zone. He does have the innate strike throwing ability to be successful in that area, and all he really needs to do is stay within himself more. Miami is getting a really exciting, high-octane arm who could develop into an impact starter, though with a June birthday that makes him old for the class, he'll be eligible again for the 2022 draft as a sophomore. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Alejandro Rosario (my draft rank: 67)
Miami Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Joining Mederos in that future Hurricanes rotation will be fellow Miami native Alejandro Rosario, though he's a very different pitcher. While Mederos is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Rosario is a very slim 6'1" and 165 pounds. He lives off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's, has registered as high as 99, and gets good running action to the arm side. His secondary pitches are more of a work in progress, with a slider and a splitter that he's still working to differentiate. Believe it or not, the splitter is actually ahead of the slider, an above average pitch at its best, and he needs to refine his slider to look less like his splitter, not the other way around. Because of his slight frame and unrefined arsenal, he faces significant reliever questions in pro ball, though I think he'll definitely be able to start at least in college. Maybe not right off the bat, as I think Mederos has a better shot to crack the rotation as a freshman than Rosario does, but he's athletic, repeats his delivery well, and throws enough strikes to make it work. Throw in the easy gas and the splitter/slider thing, and he'll miss tons of bats in the ACC. During his time in Miami, if he can refine those secondary pitches and perhaps bulk up a little bit, his electric right arm could be really enticing for teams early in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP/SS/QB Cade Horton (my draft rank: 70)
Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
A quarterback/baseball player heading to Oklahoma? Cade Horton is harkening back to Kyler Murray with that combination, but he's not quite the prospect Murray was in either sport. Horton won't have to go far for school, staying in his hometown of Norman, just south of Oklahoma City. Not only his he a two-sport star, but he's actually set to play both ways on the diamond as well. Most scouts prefer him as a pitcher, and I'd have to agree with that. Horton is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding an above average slider that could end up a plus pitch if he adds some power to it. As with most high school pitchers, his changeup requires some imagination, but it's there. As you might expect from a quarterback, he's a good athlete with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. There is a lot of baseline ability there to project on, and once (if) he gives up hitting and quarterbacking, he could take some big steps forward. Oklahoma lost its entire weekend rotation in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A's, fourth round), plus reliever Zack Matthews (Astros, undrafted), so Horton should have every chance to jump into the rotation from day one. Pre-draft profile here.

6. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (my draft rank: 75)
Lakewood HS [CA] -> San Diego State Long Beach CC
Ricky Tiedemann was previously committed to pitch at San Diego State, but after effectively pricing himself out of the draft, he'll head to Long Beach Community College to be eligible right away for the 2021 draft. Personally, I think this could pay off big time for the Los Angeles-area native. Tiedemann has an extremely projectable, extremely athletic 6'4" frame that screams future projection. He has a really loose right arm and an easy, natural operation as well, giving his coaches at LBCC a lot to work with. For now, the fastball sits around 90, but I could easily see him adding significant velocity in the future, perhaps even in his freshman year at LBCC. His changeup is his best pitch for now with great fading action, giving him a reliable offspeed. He has a slider, but it's below average at this point and will need significant refinement. It's really easy to envision Tiedemann getting a lot, a lot better, so even marginal improvement in 2021 could seriously help his draft stock. If he adds a tick or two to his fastball or refines that slider to an average or above average pitch, that should move him into top 50 consideration, and doing both could make him a first rounder. Another plus in Tiedemann's profile is his age, because like Carson Montgomery, he won't turn 18 until August, making him the age of a slightly old high school senior by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Pre-draft profile here.

7. RHP Tanner Witt (my draft rank: 87)
Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas
The University of Texas had a recruiting class filled with big draft names, but ultimately saw Carson Tucker (Indians, first round), Jared Jones (Pirates, second round), Jared Kelley (White Sox, second round), and Petey Halpin (Indians, third round) go in the top 100 picks. In losing four huge recruits to the draft, Longhorns fans can take solace in that they got one really good pitcher to price himself out. Like Tiedemann, he's about projectability more than anything else, but there is a lot of present ability too. Witt is a towering 6'6" righty out of Houston with a fastball that sits around 90 for the most part, but this spring he added a tick of velocity and sat in the low 90's, reaching back for as much as 95. While that increased velocity was only present for a short time before the shutdown, it was expected anyways and he has a chance to really tack it on in Austin. His curve has some nice depth to it and is an average to above average pitch at present, but again, it's easy to see him adding power as he fills out, which would make it a plus pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, which are fairly raw for now but which show promise and could develop into above average pitches in time. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving him plenty of starter traits to work on. Witt is very much the kind of pitcher that can show up on campus a lanky freshman and come out a bona fide ace, and he could make my #87 ranking look silly three years from now. Additionally, he's young for the class with a July birthday and will also be hitting at UT, where he could surprise some of us with his raw power. Between Witt and rising sophomore Trey Faltine, the Longhorns have two legitimate two-way prospects, though Faltine did not pitch as a freshman. Pre-draft profile here.

8. RHP Ty Floyd (my draft rank: 98)
Rockmart HS [GA] -> Louisiana State
Only the second player on this list, following Ryan Hagenow (Tennessee -> Kentucky), to leave his home state for college, Ty Floyd takes some imagination to project on. Growing up just past the Atlanta suburbs, Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a really loose arm that can run his fastball up to 95. He sits more in the low 90's during his starts, but he does have a tendency to dip a bit later on. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are both pretty raw, though the curve shows promise with nice shape down in the zone. Really, scouts are projecting on the looseness of Floyd's operation and his innate athleticism more than his present ability, and the LSU coaching staff will have some work to do when he arrives on campus. They're returning most of their pitching staff after only losing Cole Henry (Nationals, second round) to the draft, so Floyd is more likely to be a bullpen arm as a freshman, but once guys like Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux, and AJ Labas presumably get drafted next year, Floyd has a shot to jump into the rotation as a sophomore. By the time he's a junior, if he refines his game into what scouts believe he's capable of, we could have a really exciting arm. There is probably more relief risk than most of the other names on this list, though, and Floyd has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Pre-draft profile here.

9. RHP Cam Brown (my draft rank: 111)
Flower Mound HS [TX] -> Texas Christian
Cam Brown had a great summer that put him firmly in top 50 conversations, and a strong spring could have further moved him up boards into first round consideration. However, his spring moved him in the opposite direction, and he'll make the short drive down I-35W to TCU to try to rebuild his stock. At his best over the summer, Brown showed a low to mid 90's fastball that played up due to some crossfire in his delivery, in addition to an above average slider and a solid changeup. However, this spring, the velocity ticked down closer to 90 and his slider looked like a below average to average pitch, and overall he just didn't look like a natural pitcher. At TCU, he has a chance to prove that his brief spring was just a minor blip, and a strong freshman season in 2021 could be enough to completely erase the bad taste in scouts' mouthes. As a 6'3" righty with a durable frame and three potential above average pitches, he has plenty of starter traits and could emerge a first round pick in 2023. At the same time, he still does have to go out and prove it. Scouts will be watching his Horned Frogs career closely to see his progression, as will I with TCU just down the road in Fort Worth.

10. LHP Mason Miller (my draft rank: 113)
Mitchell HS [FL] -> Florida Gulf Coast
Aside from the community college-bound Ricky Tiedemann, all of the previous names in this class are committed to premium baseball programs like Miami, Florida State, and Louisiana State, but Mason Miller is headed to a smaller program in Florida Gulf Coast. There, he'll hope to follow in the footsteps of fellow lefty Chris Sale, the school's biggest name ever. Miller teamed with Reds competitive balance pick Jackson Miller (no relation) at Mitchell High School just north of Tampa, and while he had a shot to go in the fourth or fifth round based on a really nice projection profile. As a 6'3" lefty, his name was already circled on scouts' lists, and a velocity bump this spring that pushed his fastball to around 90 miles per hour really put him on the map. Aside from being a scout's dream as a 6'3" lefty, his best attribute is a potentially plus curveball that gets really high spin rates and can really bring tremendous bite. It's inconsistent for now as he learns to harness its power, but the potential is there. Lastly, his changeup needs projection and could develop in any number of directions. Miller comes from a low three quarters arm slot that puts some nice angle on the ball, but he can yank the ball sometimes and it also makes it tougher for him to stay on top of his big curveball. At FGCU, he'll need to focus on adding more velocity, which should come naturally given his frame, as well as getting more consistent with those secondary pitches. He has a chance to crack the Eagles' rotation right out of the gate, and his game could grow pretty steadily during his time in Fort Myers.

11. LHP Nick Griffin (my draft rank: 119)
Monticello HS [AR] -> Arkansas
As with Texas, Arkansas' fantastic recruiting class got looted during the draft with Masyn Winn (Cardinals, second round), Markevian Hence (Cardinals, competitive balance round), and David Calabrese (Angels, third round) signing pro contracts. Nick Griffin (Monticello) will join fellow small town Arkansan Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier) as major 2020 draft prospects to head to Fayetteville, where he will look to develop into a star. Personally, he reminds me of another name as a high schooler, and Razorbacks fans will really like this one: Asa Lacy. I really, really liked Lacy coming out of high school in Texas in 2017 (and if you read my work, you're probably sick of me bragging about it), and I feel the same way about Griffin. He's a 6'4" lefty with a really loose, really athletic delivery that just screams projection. For now, his fastball sits around 90 but can bump up to 94 at times, and he figures to continuously add velocity as he fills out that frame. There is a slider as well that can be an above average pitch at times, and he adds a curveball and changeup that are pretty nascent. Everything about his game is pretty raw, but I think the Arkansas coaching staff is getting something really exciting to work with. In addition to the projectable frame, loose arm, and great body for pitching, he's relatively young for the class with a June birthday, and he's trending in the right direction. Arkansas is so loaded with talent that he probably won't crack the rotation right away, but he has a chance to follow an Asa Lacy-like rise to stardom. How's that for a prospect?

12. RHP Patrick Reilly (my draft rank: 128)
Christian Brothers HS [NJ] -> Vanderbilt
How would this list be complete without a Vanderbilt arm? In each of the past two seasons, they've landed massive recruits on the mound in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and while they lost their top two incoming hitters this year in Robert Hassell (Padres, first round) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets, first round), they did land their top pitcher in Patrick Reilly. A New Jersey private school product like Leiter, Reilly has much less of a track record than his Garden State counterpart, instead jumping onto the map with a huge showing at the WWBA tournament over the fall. In his one start there, his previously fringy fastball sat easily in the low to mid 90's and topped out at 96, while he showed a true power curve that looked plus at its best. Reilly packs a ton of strength into his 6'4" frame that enabled his velocity gains, though aside from that exciting start in the fall, scouts hadn't seen enough of him at the increased velocity to buy him out of that Vanderbilt commitment. It will be really tough to work into that absolutely loaded rotation, especially as a freshman, but once Rocker and Leiter go in the top five picks in 2021, he'll likely have his shot. At Vanderbilt, competing for innings can be just as tough as proving yourself to evaluators, but there is no better place to go and refine his game.

Others (by pre-draft rank):
133. RHP Jason Savacool, Baker HS [NY] -> Maryland
136. LHP Timmy Manning, Cardinal Gibbons HS [FL] -> Florida
157. RHP TJ Nichols, Oakmont HS [CA] -> Arizona
160. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Counterpane HS [GA] -> Georgia Tech
Unranked: RHP Max Rajcic, Orange Lutheran HS [CA] -> UCLA

2020 Draft Profile: Ty Floyd

RHP Ty Floyd, Rockmart HS [GA]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 8/28/2001.  Commitment: Louisiana State.

Georgia tends to be a hotbed for prep talent, though 2020 has been a bit different with only Decatur's Jordan Walker generating any real first round buzz. The best high school arm in the state is Rockmart's Ty Floyd, coming from just beyond the northwest reaches of the Atlanta suburbs. What Floyd lacks in polish, he makes up for in upside, and the LSU recruit has as wide a gap between his present ability and potential ability as anyone in this class – somewhat similar to lefty Ricky Tiedemann.

Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a fastball that typically sits in the low 90's, showing nice running action on the pitch that makes it hard to square up. That fastball comes from an extremely loose right arm that scouts can dream on, but the rest of his game is fringy. He throws a curve with good shape down in the zone, but it lacks power at this point and he doesn't locate it consistently. There's a changeup in there as well, but like the curve, it needs work. Floyd throws his fair share of strikes, though as has been the theme throughout this paragraph, he needs to refine his command in the zone.

So what makes Floyd a special arm? It's the looseness and athleticism that comes with it. He's very raw mechanically, just kind of flinging the ball towards the plate, but his arm works so well that it bails out his mediocre mechanics and helps him hit 95 with movement regardless. Teams that are confident in their pitching development pipelines look at that right arm and dream on what they could do with it. "If he's hitting 95 with these mechanics, what could he look like when we smooth him out?" On the slight down side, his August birthday makes him just a bit old for the class.

LSU already steered potential second round pick Dylan Crews away from the draft, and if they can do the same with Floyd, he could develop into a first round pick in 2023. Some teams undoubtedly would like to jump on him in the second or third round this year, before that happens, but they'd be doing so while taking on a lot of risk and a complete project. That limits his market a bit, while sharpening the interest in what remains of that market.

Pitching in 2020
Pitching over the summer