Picking first overall automatically puts you in a great position, and like the Tigers last year, I think the Pirates nailed it. They went way below slot to grab Henry Davis at the very top, but he's absolutely a top-tier talent and I don't think they cheated themselves in doing so. However, that strategy did allow them to give out massive over slot deals to three of the most talented high school players in the country with their next three picks, part of which they paid for by spending a combined $20,000 in the fifth and sixth rounds. As if it wasn't enough to bring in Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler behind Davis, they went out and surprised everybody by signing Braylon Bishop to a reasonable over slot deal in the 14th round, which is already looking like the steal of the draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-1: C Henry Davis, Louisville. My rank: #3.
I had Jack Leiter and Marcelo Mayer ranked ahead of Henry Davis on my board, but really I saw the three of them as the first tier and the difference between Davis and #4 Brady House was greater than the difference between him and #2 Mayer. So given that the Pirates saved a boatload of money here that they spread around the draft, I think they made the right move with the first overall selection. Davis has been absolutely unstoppable since the start of the 2020 season, slashing .370/.482/.670 with 18 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. While many other hitters slumped to start the season, he began the year on a 21 game hitting streak (23 if you go back to 2020) and immediately embarked on a 16 game streak after that one snapped, and he didn't even strike out until his eighth game of the season. There are very few holes in Davis' offensive game. He starts from a bit of a crouched setup and stays low but level throughout his swing, keeping his eyes behind his barrel and creating plenty of leverage from that strong base. The result is plus power that comes with extremely high exit velocities, so even when he's not putting it over the fence, he's stinging screaming line drives that consistently find grass unless they're hit right at somebody. His simple, controlled operation at the plate also combines with his strong eye to really limit strikeouts, running just a 10.5% rate this spring even against the ACC's particularly tough schedule. The New Yorker from northern Westchester County identifies balls from strikes and fastballs from offspeed, then has no trouble catching up to whatever he decides is a good pitch to hit. Overall, the result is a very complete hitter that could hit 25-30 home runs a year or more while getting on base at a high clip, which would put him among the best catchers in the league. Defensively, he got to Louisville with a similar "strong arm, fringy glove" perception that follows most high school catchers, but he's worked to improve that. The arm now grades out as among the best in the class, an absolute cannon that very few dare to run on, and when they did, he nabbed 13/28 (46.4%). Davis definitely still stands out more for his arm than his glove, but the latter has really improved and most would consider him an average defender in that regard, and with robot umpires likely coming in the near future, pitch framing may not be a factor soon anyways. Those familiar with Davis note that he's a tireless worker that grinds out practices and workouts, so he should continue to get better and better. This is serious all star catcher upside. He signed for $6.5 million, which was nearly $2 million below slot value, and he's slashing .308/.387/.808 with three home runs in eight games so far between the FCL and High A Greensboro.
2-37: LHP Anthony Solometo, Bishop Eustace HS [NJ]. My rank: #27.
This is a huge talent to get in the second round, and he signed for close to the slot value of the 24th overall pick. If you ask his proponents, they would tell you Anthony Solometo was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only third overall pick Jackson Jobe, and it's hard to find people who don't like him. He has a very unique operation on the mound, starting with a wide first step and a high leg kick in which his knee nearly touches his chin, then continuing with an extremely pronounced arm circle in which he reaches the baseball way back towards third base before whipping all the way back into place and firing towards home plate. He's an exceptional athlete and despite limbs flying in every direction, it's very loose overall and he repeats his delivery surprisingly well. Solometo's fastball sits in the low 90's and has touched 96, while his slider has continually improved and now flashes plus with late bite and nice depth. For now, he mainly pitches off those two, but he can unveil a changeup when he needs it and it shows some promise once he starts working it more consistently. The 6'3" lefty pours strikes into the zone and even shows the ability to locate them, something you don't always see from teenage pitchers and especially not ones with unconventional deliveries. You can get unorthodox pitchers with strong command, but usually they have to go to school first to get more consistent with their funky deliveries before they settle in. The Pirates will want to continue to work with the South Jersey native to ensure it holds up over an increased pro workload, as well as add a changeup, but they're starting from a really good spot. Committed to UNC, he signed for $2.8 million, which was roughly $800,000 above slot value.
CBB-64: OF Lonnie White Jr., Malvern HS [PA]. My rank: #32.
In Lonnie White Jr., the Pirates are getting a supreme athlete who was actually committed to Penn State to play football as well as baseball. As with most two-sport stars, he's relatively raw on the baseball diamond, but when you take his split focus into account he actually looks extremely natural out there. White packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and produces above average raw power from the right side, using a surprisingly smooth and leveraged swing to get to that power in games. He also shows good feel for hitting and selects good pitches to hit, something that most two-sport stars lag behind in, though White does need some more time to get his timing down against premium stuff. As you'd expect from a Big Ten wide receiver, the Coatesville native (far western Philadelphia suburbs) has plus speed and for that reason has a chance to stick in center field, though he'll need to refine his reads and routes. There's a ton of upside here as a potential 20-20 threat who could pop for 30 homers at his peak, and if his hit tool takes its natural progression once he starts focusing on baseball only, we could see some solidly high on-base percentages as well. I'm personally bought into White's upside and I think the Pirates are getting a future star here, so I love the pick. He signed for $1.5 million, which was roughly $450,000 above slot value, and he's picked up three hits in five at bats so far in the FCL.
3-72: RHP/SS Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA]. My rank: #34.
Eight picks after stealing one of Penn State head coach James Franklin's incoming wide receivers, the Pirates turned their attention to Clemson's Dabo Swinney and grabbed one of his incoming quarterbacks. Bubba Chandler is a Georgia sports superstar, who could have been drafted quite early as a position player and is also a four star QB, but his upside as a pitcher is higher than all else and the Pirates will take him in that direction. Chandler was on the radar over the summer but more in the second to third round range, but came out this spring with a big uptick in his stuff that bumped him up into first round conversation. His fastball now sits consistently in the low to mid 90's and has been popping some 97's, with even more likely to come. He throws a hammer of a curveball that looks plus at its best, while his changeup is very advanced for a high schooler and even flashes plus when he grips it just right. Everything comes from an athletic, fluid delivery that enables him to throw consistent strikes and hold his stuff deep into games. Now that the 6'3" righty is dropping football and likely hitting soon as well, he has a chance to take off even further and develop into an ace. To reach that lofty ceiling, he'll have to refine his command a bit further and it wouldn't hurt to get a little more confident in his slider, which very much functions as his fourth pitch for now. It looks like the Pirates might use him as a hitter as well a bit early on where, he shows above average power from both sides of the plate and his above average speed and cannon arm could make him an asset at shortstop. Chandler signed for $3 million, which was more than $2.1 million above slot value and roughly the slot value for the 22nd overall pick, while he actually has one hit in eleven at bats in the FCL.
4-102: RHP Owen Kellington, U-32 HS [VT]. Unranked.
Vermont ranks near the bottom of the fifty states when it comes to producing baseball talent, so Owen Kellington's selection here in the fourth round means a great deal to the Green Mountain State. Kellington was a bit off the radar considering he wasn't seen much on the summer showcase circuit and played his high school ball over one hundred miles from Albany, Manchester, and Portland, the closest major cities, and roughly 150 miles from Boston (though he's technically just within a hundred miles of Montreal). For now, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has topped out around 93-94, which isn't quite overpowering yet but he's not done adding velocity. His main weapon is a hammer curveball with big depth that will only get better as he adds more power to it, though he needs to work on his changeup further. The 6'3" righty has plenty of room to grow into his frame and the Pirates will certainly work with him on his delivery, where he loses some stability when he leans backwards towards first base mid stride. As you'd expect with a high school pitcher drafted in this range, there's plenty of upside, but of course plenty of risk in a less-seen prep arm from off the beaten prospect path. Committed to UConn, he signed for $600,000, which was $28,600 above slot value.
5-133: 3B Jackson Glenn, Dallas Baptist. Unranked.
This guy has been around a while. Jackson Glenn played two years at Grayson JC in North Texas, then transferred back home to Dallas Baptist less than ten miles from where he grew up. He's been there for three years, so as a fifth year senior he's now set to turn 24 in October. He wasn't really on the prospect radar until this year, when he broke out for a monster season and slashed .366/.438/.732 with 21 home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, leading the Patriots' furious charge first to the NCAA Tournament and then on to a third super regional game against Virginia, where he got on base in all four of his plate appearances in the team's season-ending loss. It's certainly an interesting profile for Glenn, who was older than most (but not all) of his competition this spring and had clearly progressed to another level, to the point where he really just looked extremely at home in the box at all times and was able to execute his game plan pretty much at will. He found the barrel extremely consistently and sprayed line drives all over the field, and because he was so comfortable, he could sit on pitches to turn on and that's where most of his 21 home runs came from. It will be interesting to see how he transitions to pro ball over a larger sample because he's clearly ready, and he should move very quickly. Against pro competition, it's probably an average power, average hit type of deal, which would produce maybe 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages. There's a little bit of split in the industry as to his defensive home, as he's not the quickest at second base but may not have the arm for third base and might be too short (5'11") for first base. The Pirates could try him out as a bat-first second baseman but of course he has Nick Gonzales to contend with (and he's actually a year and a half older than last year's seventh overall pick), with the ultimate projection probably being somewhat of a Nick Solak type of situation (and he comps pretty well to Solak anyways, though Solak was significantly younger when he was drafted out of Louisville). The Dallas-area native signed for $12,500, which was $409,800 below slot value, and he's off to a red-hot start hitting .429/.545/.600 through twelve games, mostly at Low A Bradenton.
7-193: C Wyatt Hendrie, San Diego State. Unranked.
After taking San Diego State shortstop Mike Jarvis in the sixth round, the Pirates went back again and grabbed Aztec catcher Wyatt Hendrie in the seventh. His stock has steadily ticked up and he was drafted in the tenth round by the Cubs out of Antelope Valley JC out in the California desert in 2019, but headed to San Diego State instead. He had a big year in 2021 by slashing .379/.464/.633 with nine home runs and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games in an admittedly hitter-friendly conference, giving evaluators confidence that he'll provide some offensive value in pro ball. Hendrie has a bit of a similar operation at the plate to first overall pick Henry Davis, coming from a bit of a crouched stands and staying low through his swing so he can get his eyes behind the ball. He doesn't have quite as much loft as Davis and of course is at least a full grade below in both power and hit, while his load is also a bit more pronounced with scissor-like extension in his lower half. The Palmdale, California native makes a ton of contact like Davis and regularly finds the barrel against solid pitching, proving to be extremely difficult to strike out (just 12% this spring). While he did significantly increase his power output this spring, he's still below average in that regard and the ball doesn't always jump off his barrel like some of the higher picks in this class, especially with wood. Behind the plate, he's new to catching and it shows at times, though he's a great athlete that has taken to it quickly and should be roughly average in that regard. Overall, he probably projects for 8-10 home runs with solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages in pro ball, which is a backup profile especially when you're stuck behind Henry Davis. Hendrie signed for $177,500, which was $67,400 below slot value, and is hitting .190/.217/.381 through seven games in the FCL.
8-223: RHP Sean Sullivan, California. My rank: #209.
Sean Sullivan has been an interesting one for a while over at Cal. He was so-so as an 18 year old freshman in 2019 but was a superstar in the elite Cape Cod League that summer (2.08 ERA, 48/7 K/BB in 43.1 IP), where he was one of the youngest players in the league (if not the youngest, but I don't feel like combing through rosters to confirm that). That summer, he showed a low 90's fastball, a sharp slider, and a solid curveball and changeup, and he commanded it all well to miss bats. Given his extreme youth, he had a chance to pitch his way into the first round conversation in 2021, but ultimately he's never quite regained that form in the two years since. In 2021, Sullivan put up a 3.68 ERA and a 75/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings. The above average command has held up from that Cape run, and in fifteen starts he never walked more than three batters or allowed more than four runs, earned or unearned. The stuff, though, has all ticked down a half grade. His fastball sits closer to 90 now while still scraping the mid 90's when he needs it, while his slider is a solid average pitch and remains his out pitch even if it's not a true weapon. The curveball and changeup are a bit fringier but flash average. The Los Angeles-area native has an uptempo delivery that reminds me a bit of Carson Fulmer, but he's a great athlete that repeats it well and gets good extension down the mound. Age is a major bonus here, as he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore up to a full year (or more) younger than many of his classmates, so he can be evaluated somewhat as a J2 player rather than a college junior. There's not a ton of projection left in his skinny 6'1" frame and he probably won't add more than a tick of velocity, but the Pirates are hoping that youth can help him regain some sharpness in his secondary stuff and outplay his #4 starter projection. Sullivan signed for $175,000, which was $17,900 below slot value.
10-283: RHP Justin Meis, Eastern Michigan. Unranked.
The Pirates second and third picks, Anthony Solometo and Lonnie White Jr., grew up on the New Jersey and Pennsylvania sides of the Philadelphia suburbs, respectively, so you could call them semi-hometown picks. Justin Meis is a true Yinzer though, a graduate of Bethel Park High School less than ten miles south of downtown Pittsburgh, and he headed northwest up to Eastern Michigan for college. While his stats in Ypsilanti haven't been eye-popping, he's gotten better and better and in 2021 had a 4.64 ERA and an 81/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, and he showed well in the Cape Cod League by allowing just two runs and putting up a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 innings over his final three starts. Meis brings a low 90's fastball that can touch the mid 90's in short stints, adding an inconsistent slider that looks like a weapon at its best but can flatten out at times. He also throws a changeup with nice fade, rounding out a solid three pitch arsenal. Though he has a long arm path and a somewhat high effort delivery, he repeats that delivery well and pounds the strike zone. The 6'2" righty might have some starter upside if the Pirates want to be patient and smooth some things out, but it might be best to just stick him in the bullpen and let the stuff tick up. If he gets there quickly, he could join David Bednar and give the Pirates two Pittsburgh products in their bullpen. Meis signed for $127,500, which was $22,000 below slot value, and he's allowed four runs (two earned) through 8.1 innings at Low A Bradenton, striking out ten.
13-373: RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada. My rank: #199.
This is a real sleeper for Pittsburgh. Owen Sharts was a well-known prospect out of high school, but ended up on campus at Nevada and leaves with his stock a little bit in flux. This spring, Sharts was off to a peculiar start with a 5.12 ERA and a 35/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, then went down with Tommy John surgery in April. So after a shortened 2020 season in which he only threw 22 innings and a full freshman season that's now two years behind us, it's difficult to get a handle on who Sharts is now, let alone who he will be when he returns from surgery in 2022. So far in his Nevada career, he has sat in the low 90's with his fastball and climbed to about 95, while his curveball has flashed true plus and can be an absolute weapon. He also throws a changeup that flashes average. The 6'2" righty has a pretty clean delivery and a history of providing consistent strikes, even if his control was perhaps a touch ahead of his command, but that control completely fell apart in 2021 before his injury. If he lost the strike zone simply because he wasn't feeling right, then the Pirates have a legitimate starting pitching prospect on their hands given his velocity and the presence of a plus offspeed pitch. He'll have to get it back though, because what we saw in 2021 was unplayable. The Los Angeles-area native signed for $125,000.
14-403: OF Braylon Bishop, Arkansas HS [AR]. My rank: #119.
This pick wasn't particularly surprising given that the Pirates drafted numerous high schoolers early that would require large over slot bonuses, so having Braylon Bishop as a backup plan in case one of them didn't sign was smart. What was surprising was that he turned out to be part of Plan A, and even though Pittsburgh got deals done with all of their expensive preps, he still signed for just sixth round money. Once he made it out of the draft's second day, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that he was going to prove his tools at Arkansas, and this bonus was surprisingly low. Anyways, the Pirates are getting a supreme talent in Bishop who simply hasn't put it together yet. He's been a known commodity for a while now, showing up at numerous showcase events and standing out among his ultra-talented peers with some of the best tools in the class. The Texarkana native has plus raw power from the left side, a product of exceptional bat speed and plenty of loft in his uppercut hack. He's also a plus runner that can really change a game on the basepaths, and overall he just does things on the field that others can't. However, he's really struggled with inconsistency and has gone through stretches where he just looks overwhelmed. Bishop has long had a lot of moving parts in his swing, whipping the bat in all sorts of directions and changing his eye level, but he did come out this spring with a much cleaner looking operation. He still struggles with swing and miss, but Pittsburgh is hoping that more time with his simplified approach and a few more tweaks can get him going in that regard. He'll stick in center field, which takes some pressure off the bat, with his speed and a strong arm making him an asset as he continues to refine his game. There is a huge offensive ceiling here with the chance to post 20-20 or even 30-30 seasons, but it will take a lot of work. He signed for $268,700, of which $143,200 counts against the Pirates' bonus pool, and he has two singles in nine at bats so far in the FCL.
