Showing posts with label Billy Carlson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Billy Carlson. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

This is a really fun White Sox class with a lot of upside. Spending three of their first four picks and more than a combined $10 million on high school bats (plus another in the eleventh round), Chicago is going all in to build a future high-impact lineup. I had a lot of fun writing about some interesting profiles, from defensive whizzes to hometown picks to two 6'9" pitchers to a former Big Ten quarterback.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: SS Billy Carlson, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $6.24 million. Signing bonus: $6.24 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #11. MLB Pipeline: #7. Baseball America: #9.
Billy Carlson is a really fun prospect to start out the draft with a bang. An ultra-athletic two-way player, he has long been one of the most famous amateur prospects in California and spent his entire senior season right there near the top of the collective draft board. Pitching behind eventual Pirates #6 overall pick Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, Carlson was sitting low 90's and touching 97 while showing a pair of potentially above average offspeed pitches in his curveball and changeup. That's a day one pitching prospect, but it's his bat and glove that brought him here to #10 overall. Hitting from a closed-off stance, he gets nice leverage into his tight right handed swing and is growing into average power. He has a long track record of performance against top arms on the showcase circuit and in Southern California, where his advanced approach and solid bat to ball should make him at least an average hitter as well. Carlson is still growing into his 6'1", 185 pound frame, and while his skinny stature might limit his overall impact projection, he is an explosive athlete that is better learning how to channel that explosiveness into bat speed. There's a chance for 15-20 home runs and .350+ on-base percentages at peak if he can continue to fill out. For as good as his bat is, he's better with the glove. Carlson has excellent body control and plenty of range to not only reach balls all over the left side of the infield, but get himself into a good position to send them back across the diamond for the out. With that plus-plus arm that has reached 97 on the mound combined with the comfort of throwing from multiple angles, there is virtually no throw he can't make, kind of like a Patrick Mahomes playing shortstop. He's an average runner that has worked to get quicker and can post above average run times, but the instincts, coordination, and arm strength all point to a plus defender at one of the most difficult positions on the diamond. All together, this is a high-level athlete that moves in ways that most cannot, one who if developed properly can outplay all of his projections. The full product reminds me a bit of a bigger version of Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn.

2-44: OF Jaden Fauske, Nazareth HS [IL]
Slot value: $2.22 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($773,900 above slot value).
My rank: #36. MLB Pipeline: #57. Baseball America: #54.
From Noah Schultz (Aurora) to George Wolkow (Downers Grove) to DJ Gladney (Matteson), it seems like the White Sox are always spending early picks on local Chicago preps and 2025's edition is Jaden Fauske. A native of Willowbrook, about seventeen miles southwest of downtown on the DuPage County line, he played his high school ball at Nazareth Academy in nearby La Grange Park. While he lacks a plus carrying tool, he does a lot not just well, but very well. With a simple left handed swing and a very disciplined approach at the plate, he has a chance to be an above average hitter at the big league level who can put up strong on-base percentages consistently. At the same time, he has started to fill out his strong 6'3" frame and is producing average power for now, but could get to above average as he continues to mature and learns to be more explosive. At ceiling, that is a 25 home run bat with high on-base percentages, one that can hit in the middle of the Chicago lineup for years. Defensively, there are more question marks. He has shown well behind the plate and most evaluators believe he has the glovework to stick as a catcher long term, while his average arm plays up due to a quick, smooth release. However, there are questions whether he actually wants to catch long term. It's the most grueling position on the diamond and a future big league catcher needs to be fully bought into that career path to have a chance. Given that, the White Sox actually drafted him as an outfielder, and that transition has a chance to go a lot better than most catcher to outfield transplants. He is also a strong athlete that runs plenty well enough to cover the requisite ground in a corner outfield spot. With an average arm, he could end up in left field or right field, but he won't be a below average defender out there like many converted catchers. Either way, the bat should play – if he catches, he's a potential first division regular. If he plays outfield, there's more pressure on the bat but he should still play every day and become an impact bat. Fauske did not come cheap, forgoing an LSU commitment to sign closer to the value of the #32 pick here as the White Sox' #44 pick.

3-76: SS Kyle Lodise, Georgia Tech
Slot value: $1.08 million. Signing bonus: $922,500 ($151,800 below slot value).
My rank: #84. MLB Pipeline: #79. Baseball America: #57.
Teams looking at ACC shortstops had two options from the Lodise family, with Florida State's Alex signing with the Braves at the #60 and Georgia Tech's Kyle coming to the White Sox at #76. Kyle began his career at Division II Augusta, where he hit .349 with a .450 on-base percentage and 23 home runs over two seasons. Transferring to power conference baseball at Georgia Tech, he didn't miss a beat with the jump in competition and set a career high with 16 home runs while hitting .329/.429/.667 in 55 games. Lodise, like Jaden Fauske, lacks a carrying tool but is an all-around ballplayer. Undersized at 5'11", he knows himself as a hitter and brings a balanced offensive profile. He generates great leverage into his right handed swing and shows fringe-average power, crushing thirty home runs over the past two seasons, though many of those home runs may become doubles and triples as he switches to wood bats. Lodise is a very advanced hitter with a keen understanding of the strike zone, helping him to a career .442 on-base percentage. Despite playing those first two seasons in D-II, he challenged himself by jumping straight into the elite Cape Cod League last summer and while he didn't provide much impact at the plate, he ran an impressive 20% walk rate against the best pitching he had ever seen. The upside here is that of a .260-.270 hitter with healthy walk rates and 10-15 home runs per season at peak. A plus runner, he moves well around the infield and should have just enough arm strength to stick at shortstop. If he moves to second base, he should be an above average defender there with strong instincts. His most likely projection is that of a utility infielder that will find ways to win, while he could find his way into the every day lineup if he sticks at shortstop and continues to show enough impact at the plate.

4-106: C Landon Hodge, Crespi Carmelite HS [CA]
Slot value: $722,600. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($374,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #164. Baseball America: #131.
Between Jaden Fauske and Landon Hodge, the White Sox spent more than $4 million on bonuses for formerly LSU-bound catchers (including more than than a million dollars above slot value), something Tigers head coach Jay Johnson may not be so happy about but it certainly bodes well for Chicago's depth at that position. Hodge, whose seven figure bonus was close to the slot value of third rounder Kyle Lodise's #76 overall pick, hails from one of the most delicious sounding high schools in the country and provides a fairly similar profile to Fauske. He's not quite as physical, but he's plenty hitterish in the box with solid bat to ball and an innate ability to keep his hands inside the baseball, helping him use the entire field effectively. While the power isn't quite there yet, there's some projection in his 6'1" frame that should help him tap fringe-average pop as he fills out and learns to turn on the ball a little better. Behind the plate, his athleticism helps his glove and arm play up and White Sox scouts see a twitchy defender who will stick at the toughest position. Rather than airing out his throws, he prefers to throw as hard as he can on a line, allowing the ball to bounce well before the second baseman if need be. Hodge had a very strong spring on both sides of the baseball, showing more consistent performance at the plate while cleaning up his actions behind it, leaving Chicago convinced that his ascent has only begun. The upside here is that of a high on-base catcher who can club 10-15 home runs per season, but high school catchers are notoriously risky.

5-137: RHP Gabe Davis, Oklahoma State
Slot value: $534,400. Signing bonus: $587,500 ($53,100 above slot value).
My rank: #128. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #129.
Gabe Davis doesn't come with the most straightforward profile here, but the White Sox see plenty of upside if he is developed right. After struggling command as a freshman at Oklahoma State in 2023, he took moderate steps forward and put together a nice 2024 season as a swingman. Pushing his way into the second round conversation entering 2025, he instead struggled to find any consistency and spent most of the season in the bullpen, where Oklahoma State used him sporadically and his 24.1 innings wound up a career-low. Still, there is tremendous upside here for a fifth round college arm. Davis stands an impressive 6'9", which is apparently how tall you need to be to make 235 pounds look skinny. The arm matches the size, with a mid 90's fastball that can reach triple digits in short stints. He shows a hard slider in the upper 80's with tight snap, while his average changeup rounds out a strong three pitch mix. With his size, Davis is just an average athlete and lacks the admittedly high level of coordination needed to keep such a long body in sync. Still, it's not often you see 6'9" flamethrowers chucking 100, much less those who can add a pair of good secondaries. Davis has a career 13.1% walk rate that will have to come down, while it will also behoove him to find something a little softer in his arsenal as everything now is pretty firm. Unless Chicago has some kind of magic it can work, the Oklahoma City-area product likely ends up in the bullpen, where he can live in the upper 90's and give hitters fits with the unique look he creates.

6-166: SS Colby Shelton, Florida
Slot value: $403,900. Signing bonus: $447,500 ($43,600 above slot value).
My rank: #83. MLB Pipeline: #142. Baseball America: #158.
While Colby Shelton is much more straightforward a prospect than Gabe Davis, he has had just as interesting a path to get to where he is now. A South Carolina native, he attended high school in the Tampa area before embarking to Alabama to begin his college career. After hitting 25 bombs and slashing .300/.419/.729 for the Tide, he was named a Freshman All-American by numerous outlets and wound up transferring to Florida amid Alabama's gambling scandal. Draft eligible as a sophomore in 2024 because he was a full year older than his high school graduating class, swing and miss concerns crept up into his profile and he did not get the bonus offers he desired. Returning to school in 2025 for his age-22 season, he changed his approach dramatically and teams took notice. After blasting 45 home runs over his first two seasons, he hit just seven in 2025. However, his batting average skyrocketed from .254 in 2024 to .377 while his strikeout rate plummeted from 26.4% to just 11.8%. Previously a dead pull hitter, he began using the entire field and became a doubles machine. Always an aggressive hitter, he continues to chase at an alarmingly high rate but the bat to ball is tremendously improved as he has stopped trying to do too much. Meanwhile, he did not sacrifice a lick of barrel force as his exit velocities remain roughly the same, just less in the air and less to the pull side. While the old Colby Shelton profiled for 15-20 home runs per season and low on-base percentages, the new Colby Shelton probably sticks in the teens while posting healthier, batting average-driven on-base percentages at peak. He has played shortstop at Florida, though with average athleticism and arm strength he probably fits better at second or third base in the long run. This has the look of a platoon bat if he can continue to make contact. Despite being a junior, Shelton is the age of a senior sign and will turn 23 in December.

10-286: RHP Daniel Wright, Iowa
Slot value: $195,300. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($187,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Few players in this draft class have had a more roundabout journey than Daniel Wright. A native of Sergeant Bluff, Iowa, a little town just outside of Sioux City in the northwestern portion of the state, baseball wasn't exactly his first sport. In fact, he was an all-state selection in both football and basketball while at Sergeant Bluff-Luton High School and was even a nominee for a McDonald's All-American spot. By my book the only draftee in recent years to attend Wisconsin, which does not have a baseball team, he tried to walk on as a quarterback in 2020 but never got into a game. Deciding to give baseball a shot, he transferred to Iowa Western JC for his sophomore season, he showed well enough on the mound to earn another opportunity at Houston, where he pitched to mixed results in two seasons. He made his home state Iowa Hawkeyes his fourth school in five years come 2025, where he pitched out of the bullpen to slightly better results. Looking at the profile, Chicago is buying the upside rather than the now-product. First of all, the 6'9", 235 pound Gabe Davis is not the biggest player in this White Sox draft class – that would be Wright, who stands the same 6'9" but tips the scales at 245 pounds. This is a massive human being. He sits around 90 with his fastball and grabs a couple ticks higher, though the pitch plays a bit above its velocity with ride and run from a wide, three quarters arm slot. Wright drops in a nice slider that looks average at its best, diving the opposite direction of his fastball. For now, the big righty doesn't always get everything in sync and his long arm swing and lumbering delivery make his command fringy. However, the White Sox see size and three sport athleticism that they can work with, hopefully streamlining his delivery and drawing several more ticks of velocity out of that big right arm. If he can live closer to 94-95, the ride on his fastball could make him a useful reliever. If not, the senior sign (23 on draft day) didn't cost the White Sox too much, just $7,500 as a money-saving tenth round pick.

13-376: C Rylan Galvan, Texas
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #176. Baseball America: #237.
Rylan Galvan is a big name get for the White Sox in the thirteenth round, at least relative to most other thirteenth rounders. He teamed with current Astros prospect Garret Guillemette behind the plate as a freshman at Texas in 2023, then took over the starting role in 2024 while taking a big step forward with the bat. 2025 was his best year yet at the plate, and he'll leave Austin with 27 home runs and on-base percentage above .400 over 143 games in burnt orange, not too shabby for a catcher. Strong and sturdy at 6', 215 pounds, Galvan shows plus raw power at peak but typically shows above average exit velocities in games from a big right handed swing. Extremely patient, he ran an impressive 19.7% walk rate in 2025 while chasing at a plus (low) clip. However, his pure bat to ball is below average and he worries teams by missing too many of the hittable pitches he forces pitchers to give him with his patient approach. In order to tap his power in games, he is going to have to find a way to punish more mistakes because he will see fewer and fewer of them no matter how tightly he controls his own zone. Behind the plate, the Corpus Christi-area product has taken strides as well and now projects to stick back there with the glovework, accurate arm, and leadership typically desired among big league backstops. He profiles as a power hitting backup catcher.

15-436: RHP Caedmon Parker, Texas Christian
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #441.
Caedmon Parker has been on the Texas scouting radar for a while. He was a long, lanky high schooler back at The Woodlands Christian outside of Houston earning interest in the top few rounds, but made it to campus at TCU where he earned seven starts in the second half of his true freshman season. After missing the 2023 season with injury, he was solid as a swingman in 2024 but was more hittable as a full time starter in 2025. For Parker, the results have never quite matched the stuff. He sits in the low 90's, regularly reaching back for mid 90's and touching 96 at peak albeit relatively straight. He drops in a nice downer curveball that can look plenty sharp when he rips it right, often grading out as average. His slider in the mid 80's has short sweep but can dive late when he gets it right, and he also adds a changeup for a full four pitch mix. The 6'4" righty has a buttery smooth delivery that screams projection, though after four years in Fort Worth, he has only tacked on a couple of pounds. At this point, having turned 22 in June, you probably expect less projection out of Parker than maybe you did in 2021, but it's there if the White Sox can bulk him up and draw it out of him. Because of this, the velocity remains relatively stagnant from where it was four years ago, if more regularly at the upper end of his velocity range rather than the upper 80's where he used to find himself deeper into starts. Parker has walked exactly twenty batters in each of his three healthy seasons at TCU, but in taking on a larger workload each year has dropped his walk rate from 16.8% (poor) to 13.0% (below average) to 8.8% (average). I still love his loose, athletic delivery, so if the White Sox can help him tack on a little extra weight and bring one of his offspeed pitches a half grade forward, he still has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starting pitcher.

20-586: LHP Andrew Sentlinger, Virginia Tech
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Chicago closed out their draft with a risk/reward play, which I always love this late in the draft because the "risk" is your twentieth round pick not working out. So you might as well push the chips in. Andrew Sentlinger was a highly touted recruit coming to Virginia Tech, but making 22 appearances as a freshman in 2023 with a respectable 4.10 ERA and a 27.2% strikeout rate, has barely pitched over the past two seasons as he has struggled with injuries. The stuff is undeniable. He sits in the low 90's and touches 94 at peak, showing high spin rates and big riding life on his fastball to help it play above its velocity. He adds a sharp slider as well, helping him run a respectable 27.3% strikeout rate in 2025 even as he struggled to stay on the mound. Given his lack of extended health, he hasn't had much chance to develop beyond that and remains raw. The 6'2" lefty has a relatively uptempo delivery leading into a high release point, but with the lack of health he has struggled to repeat it. In 52.2 innings, he owns an ugly 17.9% in which his freshman season (15.2%) actually represents a career-best. If the White Sox can find a way to keep him on the mound, though, there is serious potential here. Sentlinger would almost certainly be a reliever, where his fastball/slider combination should tick up and any extended period of health should help his command creep back into the playable range. As a lefty who could chuck high-ride mid 90's in the future, that's a tough at bat.

Thursday, July 3, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Evaluating the Nationals' Options at the Top

The 2025 MLB Draft is upon us, and for the first time since 2010, the Nationals possess the first overall pick. It appears that two frontrunners have emerged – Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson – but nothing is ever certain in the draft. By my count, without having inside information, there are likely about five other names the Nationals are likely considering at the top. It's a class without a clear top prospect, as none of the draft's biggest names has done enough to separate himself this spring and every prospect comes with some sort of blemish, however small. We'll explore the seven options below.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Throughout the draft process, Ethan Holliday has been one of if not the most famous name in the class, and certainly so on the high school side. The son of former All Star Matt Holliday and brother of 2022 first overall pick and current Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, Ethan is a frontrunner to join his brother at the top. While his 2024 was more good than great, causing him to slip closer to the middle of the top ten prospects, he reasserted himself at the top with a strong spring blasting home runs left and right against Oklahoma high school pitching. Holliday stands out first and foremost for his power, easily plus from an ultra physical 6'4" frame reminiscent of his father. He's also a disciplined hitter with plenty of experience against top arms, though there is just enough swing and miss inside the strike zone to give some evaluators pause. Given the prodigious left handed power and a glove that will be enough to stick on the left side of the infield, likely at third base, it's clear that the Nationals aren't too concerned. He may not fly through the minors as quickly as his brother but he figures to be a star in the not-too-distant future. Brady House is at the beginning of his journey to establish himself as the team's long term answer at third base, but that's no reason to shy away from Holliday. One major factor here may be cost, as he does figure to be one of the most expensive players on the board with an Oklahoma State commitment in hand, where his uncle Josh is the head coach.

LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
While Holliday has been in 1-1 discussions for years, Kade Anderson has only pushed his way into the middle of the conversation very recently. He may not be the best at any individual thing, steady performance capped with a complete game shutout in the College World Series Finals have proven that the sum of the parts rival any pitcher in the class. Listed at 6'2", 185 pounds, he's not small but still isn't the most physical arm in the class. Instead of reaching back for 100, he is content sitting in the low 90's with riding action from an otherwise normal fastball profile. His curveball has tremendous snap and keeps hitters off balance to say the least, while his newer cutter/slider has worked extremely well in addition. Anderson's changeup has also taken a step forward, giving him a full four pitch arsenal which he has great feel for. The command is also above average, which when combined with strong feel for pitching and ability to execute gives him the look of a frontline starter. With a classic starting pitching profile and a track record of performance in the SEC, Anderson is *exactly* how you would draw it up when looking for Mike Rizzo's dream pitcher at the top of the draft. He has been compared to unassuming but quietly dominant lefty aces like Cole Hamels and Max Fried. He is every bit as likely as Holliday to be the Nationals' pick at the top of the draft.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Ironically, Ethan Holliday isn't the only son of a Major Leaguer, small town Oklahoma high school shortstop on the Nats' radar for their first pick. While Holliday and Anderson are the frontrunners, Eli Willits may represent the next most likely pick and was actually invited to Nationals Park for a pre-draft workout. While not quite as tooled up as his Stillwater counterpart, Willits represents a more balanced profile that leaves scouts unable to find holes. As you'd expect from the son of Reggie Willits, he brings a high baseball IQ to the field despite being one of the youngest players in the class. Willits is a switch hitter with an approach at the plate well beyond his years, boasting a long track record of showcase performance under his belt and little fear of older pitching. Standing 6'1", he has some power but doesn't project to be a slugger, with 15-20 home runs per season looking more likely alongside high on-base percentages. It's a similar story at shortstop, where he is a sound defender and figures to stick until a twitcher, more explosive defender pushes him to third base. His Oklahoma commitment (where he would play for his father) figures to make him an expensive sign, but likely a bit cheaper than Holliday.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Seth Hernandez is right there with Willits in terms of the top non-Holliday or Anderson frontrunners. No high school right handed pitcher has ever been the first overall pick, but Hernandez is no ordinary high school righty and the Nationals do seem to have some interest. Simply put, he's how you draw it up. Standing 6'4", he's an athletic specimen who could be an early draft pick as a shortstop if he wasn't such a good pitcher. The fastball has hit 100 several times and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, already giving him the look of a big league pitcher. His feel for spin was previously a bit of a knock against him, but he's sharpened up his breaking balls this spring and now looks to have a plus curveball and above average slider. The changeup has always been a weapon, giving him a full arsenal of big league pitches. While the command isn't pinpoint, Hernandez repeats his delivery well and hits his spots better than most high school arms, especially those with stuff as loud as his. High school pitchers, especially right handers, are among the riskiest picks you can make, but the Southern California product checks just about every box and will require much less development than most. He's committed to Vanderbilt and also figures to be expensive, but it seems that many of the teams picking immediately behind the Nationals are focused elsewhere and their main competition could come from teams picking outside the top five.

LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
If the Nationals go college pitcher, Kade Anderson is the clear frontrunner. However, Liam Doyle has arguably the loudest fastball in the country and I'm sure Mike Rizzo has checked in. The Angels, picking second, appear to be very interested and many mock drafts have him landing in Los Angeles. Doyle, a New Hampshire native, began his career at Coastal Carolina, transferred to Ole Miss for his sophomore year, then bounced to Tennessee as a junior this year. The fastball really ticked up and he wound up with one of the most eye popping seasons in the country, striking out a whopping 42.6% of his opponents on the way to an NCAA-second best 164 strikeouts, behind only Anderson's 180. The fastball steals the show in the mid 90's, peaking a 99, with explosive life through the zone that keeps hitters coming up empty even when they know it's coming. He has a traditional slider as well as more of a cutter, both above average pitches that will keep pro hitters off his fastball. While he doesn't use it as much, his splitter looks like it could be another solid pitch as he gains feel. While Anderson and Doyle both stand 6'2", Anderson is more of a string bean while Doyle brings a stockier build. He's not a great athlete and throws with some effort, creating some reliever risk, but pounded the zone with a solid 8.3% walk rate this year and held his velocity deep into starts. He could rocket to Nationals Park even though his edges are a littler rougher than Anderson's.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
A couple months ago, Jamie Arnold may have actually been a frontrunner for this spot alongside Ethan Holliday, but his star has faded just enough to push him closer to the back half of the top ten picks. Still, this is a loud profile and one the Nationals surely have watched closely all spring. Many a sidearming left hander has been compared to Chris Sale, and Arnold fits the bill. His low to mid 90's fastball reaches 97 at peak and runs hard to the arm side from his ultra low slot. The slider dives across the plate in the opposite direction, off the bat giving him two easy plus pitches that could get big league hitters out today. To reach his ceiling as a front of the rotation starter, he'll need to continue getting comfortable with his changeup, which is making progress but isn't quite at the level of consistency of his primary two pitches. Unlike most lefties with explosive stuff, the Tampa native also commands his arsenal very well, running a very solid 7.7% walk rate in 2025 and giving him a very well rounded profile. While he wasn't quite as electric down the stretch as some of the other college pitchers at the top of this class, his combination of stuff, deception, command, and handedness is hard to find. Arnold would likely be a bit cheaper than some of the names above him here and would enable the Nationals to spend big on a later pick.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Aiva Arquette is more or less the consensus top college hitting prospect in the class, with significant heat linking him to the Mariners at #3 or potentially even the Angels at #2. However, after drafting fellow college infielder Seaver King with their first pick last year, the Nationals do appear to be looking elsewhere for their pick at #1. Still, for an organization that has really, really struggled to develop bats, we shouldn't look past the possibility of Washington getting something relatively big league ready in that department. Arquette had a fantastic year at Oregon State and looks the part of a well-rounded prospect with few holes and plenty of upside. Standing 6'4", he has plus power and got to it consistently in 2025 as he showed the ability to elevate with authority. The hit tool is probably closer to average than plus, as he showed some in-zone swing and miss and can chase occasionally, but there is nothing glaring in that department and he still got on base at a .461 clip this year (and a nice .357 looking back to the Cape Cod League in 2024). He's big for a shortstop, but has impressed scouts with his actions there this spring and figures to stick at least at the outset of his career. If not, he'd be a well above average third baseman. In all, this profile is not too dissimilar to a right handed Ethan Holliday, with a bit better defense and a slightly less polished approach relative to his age group. Like Arnold and potentially Doyle or Willits, he could be a bit cheaper and save the Nationals some money for later rounds.

Dark Horse Candidates
At this point, I have a hard time seeing the Nationals selecting a player not listed above. That said, there are a few that have likely at least been brought up in draft room conversations in Washington and could conceivably fit the bill. Shortstop Billy Carlson, a teammate of Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, is a strong athlete with an elite glove. He has grown into more and more impact as he's matured, though he might be more of a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter at maturity. There are some parallels to Masyn Winn here and he likely finds himself closer to the back of the top ten picks. Right hander Kyson Witherspoon had a fantastic season at Oklahoma, running his fastball up to 99 while showing real feel for spin and keeping the walks way down. The Nationals likely feel that they can get similar upside in a left handed package, and Witherspoon may fall out of the top ten picks. Auburn's Ike Irish has been pushing his way up boards as of late, showing arguably the most potent bat in all of college baseball. It's very real power combined with strong bat to ball that makes him a virtual lock to hit at a high level in the big leagues. However, as a part time catcher who may fit better in an outfield corner, he doesn't fit the up-the-middle profile the Nationals and most teams seek at the top of the draft. Shortstop JoJo Parker has been another buzzy name late in the process, wowing scouts in Southern Mississippi with one of the most complete offensive profiles in the country. He's physical, shows above average power, and hits everything thrown at him. Like Ethan Holliday, he may slide to third base, but the bat is for real. He may not get out of the top ten picks. Lastly, this would probably be the biggest stretch in this dark horse section but UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner has quietly re-emerged as a premium pitching prospect. A 1-1 candidate before the season, he slipped back towards the middle of the first round as his stuff looked more ordinary, but he got hot down the stretch and is back to looking like himself. It's plenty of fastball up to 98 while his changeup might be the best cambio in the class. Bremner's slider isn't quite the wipeout pitch you look for at the top of the draft, but he makes up for it with above average command and a solid pitcher's frame. It's a traditional profile that fits the Mike Rizzo mold, though he likely fits just outside the top ten picks.