Yankees Acquire Stanton From Marlins

Yankees Get: Giancarlo Stanton: 59 HR, .281/.376/.631, 2 SB, 156 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR

$30 million (if Stanton does not opt out after 2020 season)

Marlins Get: Starlin Castro: 16 HR, .300/.338/.454, 2 SB, 110 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Jorge Guzman: 5-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 88/18 K/BB, 66.2 IP at Class A Short Season

Jose Devers: 1 HR, .245/.336/.342, 16 SB, 100 wRC+ at DSL and GCL

In the blockbuster trade we've been waiting for, the Yankees acquired reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in exchange for Starlin Castro and two low-level prospects. Stanton comes with a massive ten year, $295 million contract that runs through 2027, though Stanton can opt out after the 2020 season, which would leave the Yankees on the hook for three years and $77 million. The Marlins have agreed to ship $30 million along with Stanton if he does not exercise his opt-out, bringing the Yankees' total cost to $265 million, but they'll get no money if he does opt out. This likely takes New York out of the running to sign Bryce Harper after the 2018 season. Stanton gives the Yankees both baseball's two premier power hitters, and he and Aaron Judge could be the most fearsome offensive combination in the game, having combined for 111 home runs last season. Stanton will likely serve as the DH as Judge plus some combination of Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury man the outfield, though Ellsbury's name has been mentioned in trade rumors. This is a very dangerous Yankees team, and if you combine their star power with their depth and farm system, we are likely seeing the beginning of a new dynasty. For Stanton himself, he is coming off an MVP season in which he crushed 59 home runs and slashed .281/.376/.631 over 159 games, posting a 156 wRC+ and racking up 6.9 fWAR. Expect his numbers to get a boost in cozy Yankee Stadium and with better hitters protecting him in the lineup, but also know that most of Stanton's home runs go so far that the fence distance doesn't really matter. For his career, the LA native has 267 home runs, a .268/.360/.554 slash line, a 144 wRC+, and 34.1 fWAR over 986 games.

The most important thing the Marlins get out of this trade is salary relief. Stanton's contract was simply too expensive for the new ownership to handle, and the Marlins are rebuilding anyways so having Stanton on the books doesn't really make sense. Starlin Castro is the lone major leaguer going back to Miami, and he will slot right in at second base, which was just vacated by the Dee Gordon trade a few days earlier. Castro is on the hook for two years and $22 million, which wouldn't even make a dent in Stanton's ten year, $295 million (or three year, $77 million) deal and is still considerably cheaper than Gordon's three years and $38 million. Castro is coming off a very good season, having slashed .300/.338/.454 with 16 home runs and a 110 wRC+ for the Yankees, good for 1.9 fWAR in 119 games. He could use a few more walks to get that on-base percentage up, but for a rebuilding team, he can be a major contributor on offense and serve as a trade chip down the line. Meanwhile, Jorge Guzman is a 21 year old right handed pitcher who was acquired from the Astros in last year's Brian McCann trade. He had a huge breakout year in 2017 in Short Season ball with Staten Island, going 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 88/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 66.2 innings over 13 starts. Guzman brings blazing heat, throwing his fastball in the upper 90's while touching 101, 102, and even 103 MPH, enough juice to strike out 33.5% of the New York-Penn League hitters he faced this year. He also possesses the rare trait of being able to command that fastball, evidenced by a 6.8% walk rate this year. However, he does come with a few downsides. Guzman has a lot of work to do on his offspeed pitches, as he can't get by on fastball alone as he moves up to full season ball and beyond. He also turns 22 in January, so while he isn't old for a prospect, we're yet to see him pitch in full season ball and he's not exactly the youngest guy around. If it all breaks right, he has mid-rotation potential, but if those offspeed pitches never develop, he'll likely be a set-up man. Jose Devers, cousin of Red Sox star Rafael Devers, is an 18 year old shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. He is very much a wild card given his age and could develop in any number of directions, but we do know that he has a very good glove and can likely stick at shortstop. After slashing .239/.255/.326 with an ugly 16/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Dominican Summer League, he improved to .246/.359/.348 with a home run and a much better 21/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games upon a promotion to the Gulf Coast League. As I said, he has a long way to go, but he'll be 18 for all of 2018 and has plenty of time to develop.

End of Season Awards: MVP

Below are my picks for the AL and NL MVP's. These are my picks, not predictions

American League Most Valuable Player

Winner: Aaron Judge (New York Yankees): 52 HR, 114 RBI, .284/.422/.627 slash, .430 wOBA, 173 wRC+, 9 SB, 8.2 fWAR

One of the greatest rookie seasons in history came to a close with the end of the regular season, with Aaron Judge setting the rookie record with 52 home runs in 155 games for the Yankees. It took him just 82 games to reach 30 home runs, then after hitting just seven over his next 48 games, he finished with 15 in his final 25 games get the Yankees to the Wild Card. His .185/.353/.326 August, which included just three home runs, knocked him out of the top spot for MVP contention, but his September turned back all the doubters when he slashed .311/.463/.889 with 15 home runs, the 15 home runs and .889 slugging percentage being his highest marks for any month. He may have finished with 208 strikeouts, but when he hit the ball, it was going somewhere, as he slugged 1.018 on balls he actually made contact with. For reference, that's an expected value of more than one base just for making contact. When everything is put together, Judge the American League in home runs (52), runs scored (128), walks (127), and fWAR (8.2), all by surprisingly wide margins. The next best in each of those stats, respectively, were Khris Davis (43 HR), Jose Altuve (112 runs), Edwin Encarnacion (104 walks), and Altuve (7.5 fWAR). Mike Trout was able to top Judge in most rate stats, so Judge's .422 on-base percentage, .627 slugging percentage, 1.049 OPS, .430 wOBA, and 173 wRC+ were just behind Trout, but Judge gets the edge due playing 41 more games than his counterpart.

Runner-up: Jose Altuve (Houston Astros): 24 HR, 81 RBI, .346/.410/.547 slash, .405 wOBA, 160 wRC+, 32 SB, 7.5 fWAR

For much of the second half of the season, Altuve was engaged in a race with the slumping Aaron Judge for the AL MVP Award, and even looked like a frontrunner for stretches. However, Judge caught fire again in September, and Altuve's relatively pedestrian final month (.296/.390/.442, 3 HR) allowed Judge to take back over. This takes nothing away from the monster season that Altuve had, as the 5'5" second baseman proved  in hits (204) and batting average (.346) while also stealing 32 bases and knocking 24 home runs. Much of that was buoyed by a stretch of hitting between June 27th and July 28th that can be described as nothing short of insane. Over that 24 game stretch, Altuve slashed .510/.549/.765 with four home runs and nine stolen bases, raising his slash line from .319/.393/.521 to .369/.433/.585. At least in my book, it is a second straight season of just missing the award, but if he keeps hitting like this, he will win one eventually.

Honorable Mention: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels): 33 HR, 72 RBI, .306/.442/.629 slash, .437 wOBA, 181 wRC+, 22 SB, 6.9 fWAR

Had Trout played a full season, he likely would have beaten out Aaron Judge for his third AL MVP Award. Unfortunately, a thumb injury forced him to miss nearly two months, and playing in 114 games, he was "only" able to be the third most valuable player in the AL. In those 114 games, though, he was a one-man wrecking crew, leading the AL in most rate stats, including on-base percentage (.442), slugging percentage (.629), OPS (1.071), wOBA (.437), and wRC+ (181). Additionally, he finished third in fWAR (6.9) and walks (94) despite playing 40+ fewer games than the players ahead of him. He did this all with virtually no protection in the lineup (hence the 94 walks, or an 18.5% rate), creating his own production and punishing opposing teams. He also posted his second straight 20-20-20-.400 season (HR, SB, 2B, OBP) and the third of his career (would be fourth if not for a .399 OBP in 2012). He now has 54.4 career fWAR, 156th all time and easily the most among players with fewer than 1000 games (next is 1880's second baseman Fred Dunlap at 39.5).

Just missed: Corey Kluber (18-4, 2.25 ERA, 0.87 WHIP), Jose Ramirez (29 HR, .318/.374/.583, 6.6 fWAR), Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP)

National League Most Valuable Player

Winner: Giancarlo Stanton (Miami Marlins): 59 HR, 132 RBI, .281/.376/.631 slash, .410 wOBA, 156 wRC+, 2 SB, 6.9 fWAR

As it turns out, our two MVP's are very similar players. In fact, Aaron Judge was frequently compared to Giancarlo Stanton as a "best case scenario" as he was rising through the minors, and look what we've got. As it turns out, Stanton had a pretty fantastic season in his own right, cracking 59 home runs in a pitchers' park while setting career highs in every offensive category except walks, batting average, and on-base percentage. Stanton led the National League in home runs (59), RBI (132), and slugging percentage (.631), meanwhile finishing second in fWAR (6.9), wRC+ (156), OPS (1.007), and runs scored (123) and third in wOBA (.410). In addition, he did so in Marlins Park, which isn't the most hitter-friendly venue, didn't have a significant amount of lineup protection outside Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, and played solid outfield defense, saving runs with his cannon arm. Perhaps the most notable piece of his season was a 25 game stretch from August 4th to August 29th, when he cracked 18 home runs, drove in 36, scored 27 runs, and slashed .387/.532/1.032 to place himself in the MVP race. Despite slashing just .245/.355/.509 with eight home runs in September/October, he was able to hold on in the absence of Bryce Harper, combining some of the best offense in baseball with enough defense to earn the MVP award.

Runner-up: Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): 36 HR, 100 RBI, .320/.454/.578 slash, .428  wOBA, 165 wRC+, 5 SB, 6.6 fWAR

Nobody in baseball hit like Joey Votto this year. If he provided any defensive value at all, he'd be the easy MVP, but as a first baseman in a hitters' park, he'll take the runner-up slot. Votto this year led the NL in games played (all 162), walks (134), on-base percentage (.454), OPS (1.032), wOBA (.428), and wRC+ (165), being as close to a machine at the plate as you can get. This is the third time in his career he has tallied more than 130 walks in a season, but although walks are his calling card, he does much more. When he was actually swinging, the Reds first baseman cracked 36 home runs and 34 doubles, slugged .578, and struck out just over once every other game (83 total). It actually took him a little bit of time to get going this year, as he slashed .237/.333/.539 with six home runs through his first 21 games. Then, in 141 games from April 26th onwards, he slashed .333/.472/.584 with 30 home runs, a pace nobody else in baseball could keep up with.

Honorable Mention: Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals): 25 HR, 100 RBI, .301/.403/.533 slash, .394 wOBA, 142 wRC+, 7 SB, 6.9 fWAR

The National League's fWAR leader isn't Stanton, Votto, Blackmon, or Bryant, but Anthony Rendon. By combining excellent offense and defense, his numbers fit Fangraphs just right to make him, according to their data evaluation, the most valuable player in the NL. I don't fully trust their defensive evaluation, but Rendon had a darn good season. Sparked by arguably the greatest single-game performance of the season on April 30th, Rendon posted an on-base percentage north of .400 while adding power (25 HR, 41 doubles) and amazing defense at third base. As of the morning of April 30th, his season actually wasn't going too well, as he was slashing .226/.316/.250 without a home run through the season's first 22 games. Then, against the Mets in game 22, he cracked out six hits: two singles, a double, and three home runs, while scoring five runs and driving in ten. From that game on, he slashed .316/.420/.590 with 25 home runs over 126 games, of course with some of the best defense in the league at third base. Rendon was one major reason that when potential MVP Bryce Harper went down in August, the Nationals were able to keep hitting and winning in his absence (with a shoutout to Ryan Zimmerman).

Just missed: Charlie Blackmon (37 HR, .331/.399/.601, 6.5 fWAR), Kris Bryant (29 HR, .295/.409/.537, 6.7 fWAR), Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)