The Giants' farm system was in pretty dire condition at this time last year, but a number of breakouts make this a greatly improved system. Up at the top, Conner Menez and Sean Hjelle now give Logan Webb a serious run for the top MLB-ready pitching prospect in the system, while Seth Corry's breakout down in A ball might be the most important among all the pitchers. On the offensive side, Heliot Ramos got it figured out like we all knew he would, but the real story of perhaps the entire farm system has been the success of the recent international signees. Franklin Labour (2015) and Alexander Canario (2016) put it all together in big breakout seasons, while Marco Luciano, Jairo Pomares, Luis Matos, and Victor Bericoto (all 2018) took complex ball by storm to make that 2018 international class look like a gold mine. However, the reality is aside from that trio of pitchers (Menez, Hjelle, and Webb) and a couple of guys like Ramos, Joey Bart, and Mauricio Dubon the vast majority of the talent in this system is a long way off.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta GreenJackets, short season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL and DSL Giants
Catcher
- Joey Bart (2020 Age: 23): Bart vaulted himself to the top of the 2018 draft with a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, ultimately going second overall to the Giants. In 2019, he slashed .278/.328/.495 with 16 home runs and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games at High A San Jose and AA Richmond. He has a ton of pop from the right spot and he has proven he can get to it consistently, and it could ultimately translate to 25-30 or more home runs annually in the majors. His weak spot on offense is his hit tool, which he has worked hard to improve from below average to nearly average. He's still a free swinger and his plate discipline remains so-so, but he's trending in the right direction and it shouldn't be a problem at the major league level. Defensively, he's also trending in the right direction and he's now considered an above average defender behind the plate, and the whole package should make the Atlanta-area native a more than fitting replacement for Buster Posey, another Georgia native.
- Aramis Garcia (2020 Age: 27): It ain't easy when you're blocked by Buster Posey at your position and coming up behind you is arguably the best catching prospect in the game. Garcia spent most of 2019 at AAA Sacramento, where he slashed .271/.343/.488 with 16 home runs and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games, and he's also slashed .229/.270/.419 with six home runs and a 52/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in his major league career between 2018 and 2019. That major league line is roughly what we can expect out of Garcia over the long run, if possibly a bit on the low side. He has good pop for a catcher and is capable of hitting 15-20 home runs annually, but he's a free swinger that has a few holes in his swing, so I wouldn't expect high on-base percentages. He would fit in as a solid back-up catcher for both Posey and Bart, though if he goes elsewhere and makes some adjustments in his approach, he may be able to start.
- Ricardo Genoves (2020 Age: 20-21): Genoves has always been known to scouts as a glove-first catcher who may or may not hit, but he did hit in 2019 and that's a good sign going forward. In 51 games, he slashed .265/.335/.469 with nine home runs and a 41/17 strikeout to walk ratio at short season Salem-Keizer and Class A Augusta, tapping into that moderate raw power he packs into his 6'2" frame and getting to the barrel often enough to be a productive hitter. It's hard to say whether those gains will translate up into the mid and upper minors, but he did slash .292/.361/.446 in his 19 games at Class A and he doesn't turn 21 until May. His glove will buy his bat plenty of time, and he projects as a back-up catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Brandon Martorano
Corner Infield
- Chris Shaw (2020 Age: 26): Shaw finds himself in a somewhat similar position to Aramis Garcia in that he's blocked by Brandon Belt at his primary position, though he doesn't have a Joey Bart coming up behind him. This year, Shaw slashed .294/.360/.559 with 28 home runs and a 111/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, and like Garcia, he's spent parts of two seasons in the majors, slashing .153/.244/.222 with one home run in 38 games. The Boston College product has a lot of raw pop from the left side of the plate, and while he's been able to get to it in the upper minors, that hasn't been the case yet at the major league level. Always a free swinger, major league pitchers have exploited holes in Shaw's swing, much like they have with Garcia, and while he has more power than his catching counterpart, he doesn't provide nearly as much defensive value. He's fine as a first baseman, but the Giants have Belt there and he's worked to mediocre results in left field. He ultimately projects as a Matt Adams-like platoon bat.
- Logan Wyatt (2020 Age: 22): Wyatt was a second round pick out of Louisville this year, and I think he might be one of the better Day One bargains. Pushed across three levels in his brief pro debut, he slashed .278/.388/.377 with three home runs and a 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games in the complex level Arizona League, at short season Salem-Keizer, and at Class A Augusta. Unlike all of the other names you've read here so far, he's an extremely patient hitter, and his excellent plate discipline helps him put up high on-base percentages while also handling advanced pitching. However, he's a first baseman who has still not proven he can hit for power, as he's 6'4" with great feel for the barrel but seems content with just lacing the ball into the dirt. If Wyatt joins the launch angle revolution over his first pro offseason and comes out lifting the ball in the spring, watch out – he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with those high on-base percentages and replace Brandon Belt as a very similar player.
- Luis Toribio (2020 Age: 19): Toribio spent most of 2019 down in the complex level Arizona League, and he slashed .296/.433/.454 with three home runs and a 59/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games between there and three games with Salem-Keizer. He's an extremely patient hitter with good knowledge of the strike zone, especially for his age (he only turned 19 in September), and combining his high walk rates with very good feel for the barrel should help him post high on-base percentages in the majors. It's not yet known what kind of power he'll hit for, but he's got a projectable frame at 6'1" and he generates a lot of torque in his left handed swing, so more is certainly possible if not likely. He has high upside and with the way that fellow international signees Franklin Labour, Marco Luciano, and Alexander Canario broke out this year, he most certainly could be next.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Green, David Villar, Jacob Gonzalez, Garrett Frechette, Victor Bericoto
Middle Infield
- Mauricio Dubon (2020 Age: 25-26): This guy has been around forever. A 26th round pick by the Red Sox out of a Sacramento high school in 2013, Dubon was traded to the Brewers in the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg deal following the 2016 season and then to the Giants for Drew Pomeranz at the 2019 deadline. After missing most of 2018 with an ACL injury, he got back on his feet this year and slashed .302/.345/.477 with 20 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between the two AAA affiliates and also hit .274/.306/.434 with four home runs over 30 major league games. While he popped 25 home runs overall in 2019, that might set power expectations a bit higher than they should be, as the Pacific Coast League is extremely hitter-friendly and his build is more conducive to 10-15 home runs per year. He does show good feel for the barrel and has hit for high averages and on-base percentages everywhere he's gone, and he profiles well with good defense at second base and playable defense at shortstop. A plus runner before the ACL injury, it may have sapped some of his speed but he was still safely above average in that regard in his debut. If the Giants don't go out and sign a second baseman this offseason, Dubon should be able to take over as the starter on Opening Day and could put up a slash line similar to the .274/.306/.434 mark he had last season.
- Marco Luciano (2020 Age: 18): This is one of the most exciting young prospects in the system. Signed for $2.6 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he skipped the DSL entirely and went straight to the complex-level Arizona League as a 17 year old in 2019, and all he did was slash .322/.438/.616 with ten home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. He earned a late promotion to short season Salem-Keizer, where he was one of the youngest players in the league and slashed .212/.316/.333 with six strikeouts to five walks in nine games. Very athletically built at 6'2", he has a sweet right handed swing that produces nice leverage and power, which he combines with advanced plate discipline to consistently find pitches to attack and drive. For now, he's a shortstop with a strong arm and he has a good chance to stay there, but there's a chance he moves to third base down the line. For now, Luciano has everything going for him as a young prospect with no clear holes in his game, and he has one of the highest ceilings in the system.
- Tyler Fitzgerald (2020 Age: 22): It took Fitzgerald's highly regarded bat a few years to get going once he got to Louisville, but a big junior year pushed him into the fourth round in 2019 and he slashed .276/.358/.395 with one home run, six stolen bases, and a 41/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games across three levels up to Class A Augusta. That line is just about accurate. He's not going to wow you with any big tools, but he's a competent hitter with some gap power who should grow into moderate home run power while getting on base at a solid clip. Defensively, he should be able to stick at shortstop, though his profile perfectly fits that of a utility infielder. If he has to move over to third base, Luis Toribio and maybe Jacob Gonzalez are his only real competition, unless of course if Marco Luciano slides over there as well. He should move through the minors relatively quickly.
- Keep an eye on: Abiatal Avelino, Jalen Miller, Dilan Rosario
Outfield
- Heliot Ramos (2020 Age: 20): A first round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2017, Ramos' first full season at Class A Augusta in 2018 was a bit disappointing (.245/.313/.395), but he broke out in a big way in 2019. Playing at High A San Jose, where he was one of the younger players in the California League, he slashed .306/.385/.500 with 13 home runs and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games to earn a promotion to AA Richmond at just 19 years old. There, he added three more home runs and slashed .242/.321/.421 over 25 games, which is still impressive given his age. He's an explosive player with power, speed, and a strong arm in the outfield, giving him a classic right field profile if he has to move out of center. There are still raw elements to his game, as he still has some swing and miss and hasn't proven himself against advanced pitching. That's okay because very few 20 year olds have, and just tightening up his strike zone judgement and finding the barrel a little more could make him a 25 homer bat in the majors with some speed and good defense.
- Hunter Bishop (2020 Age: 21-22): Bishop rode an absolutely massive breakout season at Arizona State (22 HR, .342/.479/.748) to a first round draft selection, and the Giants are happy to bring home the kid from San Mateo who attended Junipero Serra High School. He had a relatively quiet pro debut, slashing .229/.438/.429 with five home runs and a 39/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer, but he did show some pop as well as stronger than expected plate discipline. He has a ton of power in his 6'5" frame, but questions loom over his ability to get to it consistently against advanced pitching as it never showed up in the Cape Cod League and didn't come often against Pac-12 pitching. He's a very patient hitter, which helps him maximize that power and get his pitches to drive, and he's trending in the right direction. With continued improvement in his hit tool, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. Overall, he could provide a lot of value on both sides of the ball.
- Sandro Fabian (2020 Age: 22): Fabian did a much better job in his second crack at High A, as he slashed just .200/.260/.325 as a 20 year old there in 2018 but bumped his line up to .287/.353/.413 with five home runs and a 33/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games there this year (plus a .219/.366/.500 line and two home runs in ten games in complex ball rehab). He's not going to hit for a ton of power, but he has good feel for the barrel from the right side and his plate discipline is improving to the point where he could be a useful fourth outfielder in the relatively near future. He's a good defender that should be able to handle all three spots, and if he can stay healthy consistently, he could hit around ten home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Alexander Canario (2020 Age: 19-20): Canario signed for just $60,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016 but he's already smashing expectations, and his breakout 2019 saw him slash .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs and an 80/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between the Arizona League and Salem-Keizer. He always had power potential, but he finally grew into it in 2019 and crushed balls all over the park both in complex and short season ball as a teenager with 38 extra base hits in 59 games. He's still a bit raw at the plate and can be overly aggressive, so full season ball will be a big test in 2020, but it's hard not to be excited about the big power and good feel for the barrel that he has. He should hit 20+ home runs annually in the majors while playing good defense in the outfield.
- Franklin Labour (2020 Age: 21-22): Perhaps even more under the radar than Canario was Franklin Labour, who signed for just $70,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 before spending three years in complex ball. Up at Salem-Keizer in 2019, he smashed 14 home runs in 41 games and slashed .307/.392/.639 with a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio before being promoted to Class A Augusta, where he was a bit overmatched and hit .215/.282/.299 with one home run and a 40/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. He generates a ton of power and leverage from his right handed swing, and he got to it remarkably consistently in short season ball. However, as with Canario, the real test has to be full season ball, where he struggled in 2019. He's older than Canario and I'm less confident that his hit tool will translate up, but he has the upside as a power hitting left fielder.
- Jairo Pomares (2020 Age: 19-20)/Luis Matos (2020 Age: 18): I'm choosing to lump these guys together because they're both far, far away but have similar profiles and started their pro careers with a bang. Pomares, a Cuban import, slashed .368/.401/.542 in 37 Arizona League games but fell to .207/.258/.259 in 17 short season games with Salem-Keizer, while Matos, from Venezuela, hit .362/.430/.570 in 55 Dominican Summer League games before putting up a .438/.550/.500 line in five Arizona League games. Pomares stands 6'1", but it was the 5'11" Matos who showed more power in his pro debut, and both have shown exceptional bat to ball skills for their age while spraying line drives all over the park. Matos especially has shown very advanced plate discipline for his age, as he doesn't even turn 18 until January, and both are above average runners who have the ability to stick in center field. Pomares is more highly regarded at this point, but a part of me likes Matos better and wants to put my money on him.
- Keep an eye on: Bryce Johnson, Heath Quinn, Diego Rincones, Grant McCray, P.J. Hilson
Starting Pitching
- Logan Webb (2020 Age: 23): Somewhat of a hometown guy, Webb grew up in Rocklin, a Sacramento suburb, and had his breakout year in 2018 (2.41 ERA, 100/47 K/BB) four years after he was drafted. However, it turned out he was juicing and he was suspended for 80 games in 2019, but the results were still good; overall, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 69/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings across four levels, and he reached the majors in August and posted a 5.22 ERA and a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's and gets a ton of ground balls with that fastball, and he adds a power slider that has missed bats in bunches. His changeup is coming along and should be usable, and with his solid command, he should be able to make it as a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if he can continue to refine that changeup. A move to the bullpen is not completely out of the question, but he's proven enough recently to earn a long look in the major league rotation.
- Conner Menez (2020 Age: 24-25): Born and raised in Hollister, which is just south of the Bay Area off 101, Menez was drafted in the 14th round out of The Master's University in 2016 and was all the way up in High A San Jose by the end of the year. However, it was 2019 that was his breakout season, as he posted a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the latter of which was an extremely hitter-friendly context. He also made eight major league appearances with a 5.29 ERA and a 22/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup, but everything plays up because he gets good angle on his pitches to create deception and a high spin rate to miss bats. His command has improved steadily as he's risen through the minors, and while he'll never be a pinpoint guy, he throws enough strikes now to be successful. Menez isn't a future ace but I feel like I'd be selling him short by describing him as just another #4 starter.
- Sean Hjelle (2020 Age: 22-23): It's hard to miss Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") on the baseball field, because he stands 6'11" and would match Jon Rauch as the tallest player ever if he makes the majors. However, after being drafted in the second round out of Kentucky in 2018, it was his performance on the mound that made him stand out even more. This year, he had a 3.32 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings across three levels all the way up to AA Richmond. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it gets on hitters quick due to his exceptionally long arms, and he adds a very good curveball that gets swings and misses. However, his best trait as a pitcher is his command, as he's walked just 41 batters in 165 pro innings so far and he can spot all of his pitches well. I'm not completely sold on Hjelle as an impact starter yet, but he has the chance to be a #3 starter with a more likely outcome as a #4 or #5.
- Seth Corry (2020 Age: 21): Corry was more of a projection guy than anything else when he was drafted in the third round out of a Utah high school in 2017, but that projection began to bear fruit in a breakout 2019. This year, he posted a 1.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 172/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at Class A Augusta, showing greatly improved command to go with his power stuff. A 6'2" lefty, he's still likely below average with that command, but he's made enough progress that his low 90's fastball and excellent power curve can play up and miss bats by the bunches. There's still a lot more work to be done, but he's well on his way to reaching his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter if he can tighten that command up a little more and continue to improve his changeup.
- Jake Wong (2020 Age: 23): Drafted one round after Hjelle out of Grand Canyon University, Wong had a solid first full season by posting a 3.90 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 101/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose. His mid 90's fastball is his best attribute, and he adds an improving curveball and changeup to the mix, but it all plays down somewhat because his command is fringy and he lacks deception. I see him more as a reliever, where his fastball/curveball combination could sharpen and where he'll need less deception, but continued refinement of his command could make him a solid mid to back-end starter.
- Matt Frisbee (2020 Age: 23): A 15th round pick out of UNC-Greensboro in 2018, Frisbee was originally thought of as a reliever and was successfully used in that role in his pro debut last year (2.96 ERA, 36/13 K/BB). However, he transitioned back to the rotation in 2019 and the results were tremendous, as he posted a 3.13 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 154/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.1 innings at Augusta and San Jose. It's hard to find video or updated scouting reports on him, but coming out of college he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but needed work on his secondaries. I can't confirm but I would guess that they took a step forward in 2019, as did his command, which went from solid to very good. A 6'5" righty, he has the chance to leapfrog some of the more highly-touted names on this list like Beck and Wong.
- Trevor McDonald (2020 Age: 19): The Giants have had a lot of success in their rotation with pitchers from Alabama (Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy), and just a few miles over the border in George County, Mississippi, they grabbed 6'2" righty Trevor McDonald in the 2019 draft. McDonald only threw four pro innings in 2019 with a 2.25 ERA and eight strikeouts to two walks in complex ball, and he's all upside. He sits in the low 90's for now but with an incredibly quick arm, he could easily add velocity and get into the mid 90's, and he adds three offspeed pitches. They're all inconsistent for now, but he has shown a very strong feel for pitching, and he's the kind of guy who could take off with pro instruction. On the checklist are proving durability and getting more consistent with those secondary pitches, but he's a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Tristan Beck, John Gavin, Kai-Wei Teng, Prelander Berroa
Relief Pitching
- Garrett Williams (2020 Age: 25): What do you make a guy who has posted ERA's of 5.01, 2.32, 6.06, and 3.60 in his four pro seasons, and who was equally inconsistent in college? Williams has always flashed big league stuff, but injuries and control problems have hampered him since his time at Oklahoma State. He can sit anywhere in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and he adds a curveball that is a true out pitch when he's on, but he loses the strike zone regularly and gets hammered when he does. In 2019, he had a 3.60 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 108/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at AA Richmond, and the Giants finally moved him to the bullpen in August, where he had a 2.87 ERA and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings. This seems like a no-brainer to me, as the combination of injuries+unstable command+inconsistent stuff should be remedied.
- Blake Rivera (2020 Age: 22): Rivera still hopes to be next in the long line of Giants starters from Alabama, though he's looking more and more like a reliever. A fourth round pick out of an Alabama community college in 2018, he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an 87/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings between Class A Augusta and complex ball rehab this year. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good curveball, but he hasn't proven to be consistent with either his strike throwing ability or his durability. He's still working on those things, and if he takes a step forward with either in 2020, he could stick as a starter, but for now he's looking like he could be a valuable two pitch reliever.
- Gregory Santos (2020 Age: 20): Santos, like Rivera, still has a shot at starting, but he's yet to eclipse 50 innings in a season while he's battled shoulder issues. In 2019, he posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings at Augusta, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adding a curveball that looks good at times but which lacks hard bite. He's done a good job throwing strikes in his small samples, which means he could eventually have above average command if he can stay healthy, though durability is a serious question and a move to the bullpen might be in his best interest. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, he'll still have every chance to prove himself as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Melvin Adon, Sam Selman, Caleb Kilian
Showing posts with label Marco Luciano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marco Luciano. Show all posts
Saturday, November 23, 2019
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Reviewing the San Francisco Giants Farm System
The Giants have a couple of exciting prospects at the top of their system, but once you get past Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, there really isn't much going on here. There is a decent amount of upside in the system, but most players come with significant risk and overall I expect relatively few of these players to make meaningful big league contributions. The ones that do, though, could could be big. It's a little pitching heavy, though the consensus top two prospects in the system, Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, are position players. Aside from Shaun Anderson and possibly Sean Hjelle, most pitching prospects in this system look to have a high relief risk.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
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