Showing posts with label Eriq Swan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eriq Swan. Show all posts

Monday, August 4, 2025

Reviewing the 2025 Washington Nationals Trade Deadline

Traded: Michael Soroka (CHC), Kyle Finnegan (DET), Amed Rosario (NYY), Alex Call (LAD), Luis Garcia (LAA), Andrew Chafin (LAA)

Received: Christian Franklin (CHC), Ronny Cruz (CHC), Josh Randall (DET), R.J. Sales (DET), Clayton Beeter (NYY), Browm Martinez (NYY), Sean Paul Liñan (LAD), Eriq Swan (LAD), Jake Eder (LAA), Sam Brown (LAA)

Yet again, it was a fire sale for the Nationals at the deadline. While no superstars were dealt like in years past, they still shipped off six major league assets in exchange for ten mid and low-caliber prospects. On day one, none project to be a James Wood, a CJ Abrams, or a MacKenzie Gore, but the law of averages means that in a group of ten, some will certainly over perform and there could be a few legitimate pieces here that are contributors on the next contending Nationals team. Let's dig in, trade by trade.

Trade 1 (7/26)
Yankees receive:
    - 3B Amed Rosario (age 29): 5 HR, .270/.310/.426, 1 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Clayton Beeter (age 26): 14.79 ERA, 12.92 FIP, 2.45 WHIP, 1/4 K/BB in 3.2 IP
    - CF Browm Martinez (age 18): 3 HR, .404/.507/.632, 13 SB, 187 wRC+ in DSL
In a trade deadline where the vast majority of activity occurred within the last 24-48 hours before the deadline, this trade feels like ancient history. Mike Rizzo had many shortcomings, but finding diamonds in the free agent rough was not one of them. Amed Rosario signed with the team for just $2 million and put up a very respectable season in Washington, seeing frequent starts at second and third base while providing a league average bat. The Yankees needed another infield bat to help an offense that suddenly went quiet, and Rosario's keen ability to hit lefties (.299/.333/.483 pre-trade) landed the Nationals a decent return. Clayton Beeter was drafted by Dodgers 66th overall back in 2020 out of Texas Tech, then went to the Yankees for Joey Gallo in 2022. He put up excellent numbers in the upper minors 2023 and 2024, but injuries slowed his ascent and he never quite caught on in the majors with just five relief appearances over two seasons. Now 26 years old, he has primarily pitched at AAA this season to good, but not great results. Primarily a starting pitcher for most of his minor league career, a high walk rate has finally forced him to the bullpen where he projects to stay long term. The stuff is pretty impressive and has missed a ton of bats in the upper minors and should play in the majors so long as he can stay ahead in counts. While the Nationals sent him to AAA Rochester after the trade, I would expect him to be on the short list to earn some innings in Washington in the near future and I could see him sticking around as a solid mid-leverage reliever. The command will likely never come together enough for a high leverage role but I feel it more likely than not that he makes himself a regular in the Nationals bullpen in some capacity in the near future. Browm Martinez, meanwhile, is the prototypical "rookie ball lottery ticket." Just 18 years old, he signed with the Yankees for $130,000 out of the Dominican Republic last year and held his own as a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025 as many kids do, he has been one of the best hitters on the island by hitting .404 with three home runs and just eight strikeouts in eighteen games. It's a tiny sample in a league where stats don't mean terribly much in the first place, but you really can't perform any better than he did and that's certainly not a bad thing. Listed at an undersized 5'10", 160 pounds, he'll look to bulk up in the Nationals' system as any kid his age would (remember he's the age of a graduating high school senior). Still, he has made a ton of contact and even hit for some power already, pointing to perhaps more offensive upside than his size would indicate. A centerfielder by trade, he has shown well out there and could stick. Martinez is many years away and a lottery ticket in its truest sense, so Nationals fans will likely have forgotten all about Amed Rosario's 47 games by the time he reaches the majors in the late 2020's.

Trade 2
Angels receive:
    - LHP Andrew Chafin (age 35): 2.70 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, 18/12 K/BB in 20 IP
    - RHP Luis Garcia (age 38): 4.10 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, 31/18 K/BB in 37.1 IP   
Nationals receive:
    - LHP Jake Eder (age 26): 4.91 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 15/9 K/BB in 18.1 IP
    - 1B Sam Brown (age 23): 5 HR, .244/.350/.358, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ at AA
This trade briefly grabbed headlines because it involved three major leaguers, but ultimately it's likely to be a nothing-burger. The Angels acquired two low leverage, late career relievers in exchange for one younger low leverage, early career reliever and organizational depth at first base, a position that doesn't really require organizational depth. Given that Andrew Chafin joined the Nationals in May and Luis Garcia in July, getting anything in return for the 35 and 38 year olds, respectively, is a win. They'll join the Angels to add some depth and keep the team competitive going forward. As a fun fact that I just learned today, the Nationals previously acquired Garcia in 2009 – for Ronnie Belliard! The primary return for the Nationals here is lefty Jake Eder, a 26 year old reliever who was actually born on the exact same day as Clayton Beeter – 10/9/1998. Also drafted in 2020, he was taken by his hometown Marlins in the fourth round out of Vanderbilt and immediately put up a huge 2021 at AA Pensacola, establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. However, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 and he was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger in 2023, then was sent on to the Angels for cash before the 2025 season, posting ERA's above 6.00 in the minors in each of the past three seasons. He has been developed through and through as a starting pitcher, never making a relief appearance in the minors, but has served as a long reliever in his brief major league time. He has held better command than Beeter, but the stuff is a touch lighter and he likely doesn't have enough weapons to work through a major league lineup multiple times. While he probably is what he is at this point, he could stick around for a few seasons in a long relief role and will give the Nationals some bullpen depth going forward. Meanwhile, Sam Brown is likely organizational depth more than anything else. A twelfth round pick out of Washington State in 2023, the Angels sent him straight to AA Rocket City where he struggled to hit for impact in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025, he has been incrementally better with an on-base-driven offensive profile. Brown is not a thumper with just nine career home runs and a .325 slugging percentage in 218 games, and likely never will be with high ground ball rates. He does, however, have a very professional approach at the plate that limits strikeouts and leads to a ton of walks. Given his limited defensive profile, it's unlikely he ever breaks through to a major league role without finding more impact in the bat. If the right combination of injuries happens in front of him and he's able to continue getting on base at a high clip, there is a chance he earns a cup of coffee in the majors. He's a disciplined enough hitter to handle major league pitching pretty confidently, with the main limitation being that not much may happen once the ball does come off his bat.

Trade 3
Tigers receive:
    - RHP Kyle Finnegan (age 33): 4.38 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 32/14 K/BB in 39 IP
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Josh Randall (age 22): 3.92 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 70/15 K/BB in 80.1 IP at A-/A+
    - RHP R.J. Sales (age 22): 2.71 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 66.1 IP at Low A
From a fan perspective, this is probably the Nationals' biggest trade of the deadline. Kyle Finnegan was a veritable Mike Rizzo masterclass, having never reached the majors after seven seasons in the A's' minor league system and signing with the Nationals as a minor league free agent in 2020. It was a bit unusual that he signed a major league contract with the team, but it worked out in spades as he went on to save 108 games in five and a half seasons, the second most in Washington Nationals history behind Chad Cordero. He'll join the Tigers for the stretch run as a high leverage reliever that could be on the "last pitch of the World Series" watch list. In return, the Nationals received a pair of low minors pitchability arms from the Tigers' 2024 draft class. Josh Randall was a third round pick out of the University of San Diego last year and has spent most of 2025 at Low A Lakeland, where he controlled the strike zone well but was more hittable than you'd hope for a college arm in Low A. He made one successful start at High A West Michigan before the trade and will report to High A Wilmington to start. Interestingly, Randall was more of a power arm early in his college career and has gradually shifted to becoming a command and control type. The fastball still comes in hard, touching 98 at peak, but its run and sink hasn't missed a ton of bats and also hasn't generated as many ground balls as hoped. He adds a solid slider and was very effective in Low A, but he'll need to miss more barrels going forward to stick in the rotation. There's a shot he does so and becomes a back-end starter, though the likelier outcome is that of a multi inning reliever whose stuff takes a step forward in short stints while maintaining above average command from a sidearm slot. R.J. Sales, the Tigers' tenth round pick in the same draft out of UNC Wilmington, has had a similar start to his career. He's pitched exclusively at Low A Lakeland, where he has been excellent over sixteen appearances (fifteen starts) albeit often against younger competition. He'll start off at Low A Fredericksburg, but I expect the Nationals to promote him to Wilmington before the end of the season. Sales has somewhat lighter stuff but has shown above average command to dice up Low A hitters. Unlike Randall, a sidearmer, Sales comes straight over the top and "looks" more like a starter. He has been up to 96 and has a similar projection as a back-end starter/long reliever. Between the two, expect one to exceed expectations and one to fall short, so hopefully we'll get one back-end starter out of this pair. If either Randall or Sales can stick around and give the Nationals a few full seasons in the back of the rotation, even if the other never reaches the majors, that's a successful trade for half a season of Kyle Finnegan.

Trade 4
Cubs receive:
    - RHP Michael Soroka (age 27): 4.87 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 81.1 IP
Nationals receive:
    - OF Christian Franklin (age 25): 8 HR, .265/.393/.427, 11 SB, 117 wRC+ at AAA
    - SS Ronny Cruz (age 18): 2 HR, .270/.314/.431, 10 SB, 91 wRC+ in ACL
While Kyle Finnegan has the most history in Washington, Michael Soroka was probably the biggest name traded from the Nationals from a production standpoint. Long ago a top prospect for the Braves, injuries derailed his career for a few seasons from 2020-2023 before he made a small comeback with the White Sox and eventually re-established himself as a legitimate major league arm this season in Washington. Just on a one year deal, he'll head to Chicago and fill whatever role the Cubs need from him, whether that's in the back of the rotation or in a hybrid relief role. Coming back to Washington is probably the best prospect package they got from any trade. Christian Franklin was initially a top prospect for the 2021 draft, but fell to the Cubs in the fourth round after an inconsistent junior season at Arkansas. Throughout his slow climb through the minors, he has shown extremely strong plate discipline leading to very high on-base percentages and reasonable strikeout rates. Long lauded for his raw power despite a modest 5'9" frame, he hasn't been able to consistently elevate the ball and has hit just 26 home runs in 307 minor league games. Set to turn 26 in the offseason, he may not still have the lofty upside he once possessed, but the raw traits are certainly there. He crushes left handed pitching and certainly has the batting eye to handle major league pitching in general, and if the Nationals can find a way to get him elevating the ball better (which they do not have a successful history of doing), he has a chance to be a real weapon at the plate. More likely, he profiles as a platoon outfielder who can take on a significant role and inject some juice into the Nationals' lineup against left handed starting pitchers while holding his own against righties on the days he gets those starts. While Franklin is just about ready, Ronny Cruz is much farther off. He signed with the Cubs as a relatively unheralded third round pick last year out of Miami Christian High School in Florida, then held his own in a 48 game stint in the Arizona Complex League this year as an 18 year old. There is massive upside here, albeit a long ways off. Cruz has huge raw power, blasting a baseball 108 MPH off the bat as a 17 year old at the 2024 MLB Draft Combine. While that didn't translate to home run power this year, with just two long balls in those 48 games, he did put up ten doubles and six triples making loud noises off his bat. He's understandably raw as a hitter with an unrefined approach at the plate and a lack of barrel accuracy, so the Nationals will let him take it slowly and he may spend all of 2026 at Low A Fredericksburg. Given that he was extremely young for a high school senior when he was drafted, he'll have plenty of time. Defensively, Cruz could end up at any number of positions and has a lot of physical and skill development ahead of him to determine where that may be.

Trade 5
Dodgers receive:
    - OF Alex Call (age 30): 3 HR, .274/.371/.386, 1 SB, 117 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Sean Paul Liñan (age 20): 2.78 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 101/31 K/BB in 74.1 IP at A-/A+/AAA
    - RHP Eriq Swan (age 23): 4.43 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 77/46 K/BB in 69 IP at High A
This one might be the most interesting trade the Nationals made. Alex Call will be 31 by the time this season ends, but he still has four years of team control remaining so he'll hit free agency for the first time at age 35 if the Dodgers tender him each year. I wouldn't think the Nationals were necessarily looking to move him, but ultimately they received an offer they couldn't refuse. Call isn't the flashiest player, but he has performed better and better against left handed pitching throughout his short career to the point where he'll fill an important role even on an always-deep Dodgers roster. Meanwhile, his outfield defense will keep him earning regular playing time to go along with being a .300+ hitter against lefties. It's a nice get for Los Angeles if he can keep from regressing. Sean Paul Liñan signed for just $17,500 out of Colombia in 2022, but gradually elevated himself into one of the top young pitchers in the Dodgers' low minors. From a crouched delivery with long arm action and nice extension, he slings the ball to the plate with a visually appealing delivery and plenty of deception. The fastball only sits low 90's but gets on hitters quick from that low slot, but his dastardly changeup steals the show with late action. If he wants to start, he'll need to find a more reliable breaking ball than his short slider, but to this point he has missed bats in bunches in the low minors. The command is still coming along, as is to be expected with a 20 year old pitcher, and will be another key in his development. If the two come together with his present stuff, he could be a mid rotation starter, with a more median outcome being a fastball/changeup reliever. It's certainly a profile that would play well in that latter role but the Nationals like his arm strength, changeup, and delivery at a very young age. He probably won't be up until 2027 unless the Nationals immediately shift him to the bullpen, which I doubt would happen. Lastly, Eriq Swan was a fourth round pick out of Middle Tennessee State in 2023, but injuries limited him to just 28.1 innings in 2024. Healthy in 2025, he has pitched the entire season at High A Great Lakes where he was recently joined by Liñan, running nice strikeout rates but walking too many hitters. He's a fireballer, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short stints. The Dodgers have really helped him bring along a nice slider as well, coming in with power and sweep to keep hitters off balance. There's a changeup too for a change of pace off his power fastball/slider combo. While he doesn't throw with much effort, he has really struggled with command and was running an ugly 15.4% walk rate at the time of the trade, leading to serious relief questions. Barring some magic from Washington's pitching development, he's likely a reliever in the majors where he can sit close to 100 with his fastball and pull the string on the slider. He might move quicker in that role and look the part of a Josh Staumont.

Friday, July 14, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Luxury tax penalties pushed the Dodgers' first pick outside the top 35 for the second year in a row, but they're one of the best teams in the league at drafting and developing so they can withstand the bump. Last year, they picked Louisville's Dalton Rushing with their first pick at #40 overall, and all he has done since is tear the cover off the ball in the low minors and looks like a steal already. And though they had that first pick pushed back, they did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson to free agency. Overall, this class leans on athleticism more so than present physicality and projection, with many draftees clocking in at 170 pounds or less. The Dodgers are looking for unique, unteachable traits that they can then leverage in their excellent player development system, something they've had a lot of success with in the past.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-36: OF Kendall George, Atascocita HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $2.36 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #65. Baseball America: #114. Prospects Live: #59.
If you look at most public boards, mine included, this pick may appear to be a bit of a reach. But we know better than to question the Dodgers' draft strategy at this point. Kendall George is a legitimate talent that rode a very loud spring down in the Houston area to this high pick. He has always been a plus-plus runner, a tool which carries his profile and especially adds value in today's game with more stolen base attempts. After looking overmatched last summer on the showcase circuit, he looked like a different ballplayer this spring and rocketed up draft boards. He's not the biggest kid in the world at a skinny 5'10", but he has lightning quick hands that whip the barrel through the zone with authority and help him pack more punch than you'd expect. The power is well below average for now and home runs will never be a primary part of his game, but as he fills out a little bit that explosive bat could help him tap 10-12 home runs per season down the line. The swing works well to all fields and lends confidence that he can continue to get on base regularly in pro ball. Defensively, the speed makes him an asset in center field, though he doesn't have much of an arm. George projects as a top of the lineup table setter that can wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers, with enough pop to keep pitchers honest and great defense in center field. He's committed to Arkansas and at this point in the draft, I wouldn't expect his bonus demands to be too outlandish.

2-60: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $1.34 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #54. MLB Pipeline: #35. Baseball America: #40. Prospects Live: #74.
Jake Gelof had an unremarkable freshman year at UVA, but over the past two seasons he has been without question one of the best hitters in the ACC, slashing .347/.450/.735 with 44 home runs over 123 games. The younger brother of A's rookie and Team Israel veteran Zack Gelof, Jake's bat packs a little more punch than his brother's in exchange for being slightly less of a pure hitter. The younger Gelof takes huge hacks from the right side, getting to baseballs all over the zone with his arms extended and catching them out front to elevate with authority. Despite the big hacks, he has very strong feel for the barrel and projects as a potential average pure hitter, with a fairly patient approach and solid contact rates. Although not very projectable, he's plenty strong right now with a filled out 6'1" frame and shows plus raw power already. It's the kind of bat that profiles in the middle of the order at his ceiling so long as he continues to make contact and control the zone against more advanced pitching. Defensively, he has shown well at third base and has enough arm to stick over there, though he has heavy feet and may move to first base if he slows down at all with age. That will put more pressure on the bat, but you don't put up the numbers he did in the ACC by accident. This is a little later than he was expected to get drafted but as a college player, I imagine he'll probably sign around slot value.

3-95: RHP Brady Smith, Grainger HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $705,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #192. MLB Pipeline: #138. Baseball America: #422. Prospects Live: #313.
In the third round, the Dodgers went down to Northeast Tennessee to grab a skinny right hander with big time stuff and athleticism. Many in the industry saw Brady Smith as a candidate to get to college at Virginia Tech and fill out a little bit, but the Dodgers bit early and will see what they make him into. Smith currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95 with flat plane and carry that makes it play up. He shows real feel to spin a breaking ball, with a sharp curveball and an improving slider in addition to a decent changeup. It all comes from a very skinny 6'2" frame that has some room to fill out, though for now he's not overly physical. Smith is also a great athlete that gets down the mound well with great extension. There's a lot to like in the whole package between the loose arm, feel for spin, and athleticism, though his development does hinge on his physical development. He'll need to add about twenty pounds of muscle to stick as a starting pitcher and withstand a full season's workload, something the Dodgers have plenty of experience with in the arms they've developed. This is probably the best possible landing spot for the kid from Bean Station, Tennessee. This is earlier than he was expected to get drafted, but with that Virginia Tech commitment in hand, I imagine he'll still require more than the $705,500 slot value to sign.

4-127: LHP Wyatt Crowell, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $516,800. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #127. MLB Pipeline: #112. Baseball America: #135. Prospects Live: #228.
Wyatt Crowell is a very interesting one. A key member of the Florida State bullpen as a sophomore in 2022 (2.12 ERA, 72/17 K/BB in 51 IP), he was poised to step into the rotation after the Seminoles lost their entire weekend rotation to the draft and transfer portal. Crowell showed extremely well in fall practice to push himself into second round consideration, but his velocity backed up as a junior and he ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery. In short stints, the Atlanta-area native can sit in the mid 90's and touch 98 with his running fastball, though this spring it dipped closer to 90 in longer outings. Still, he managed to put up a strong, albeit brief season (0.87 ERA, 33/11 K/BB in 20.2 IP) on the strength of his plus slider, a deadly offering that misses bats in bunches. He has worked in a curveball and a changeup at times before, but right now the money is on the slider. Before his injury, Crowell showed great ability to harness his lively stuff with average albeit inconsistent command, utilizing a loose delivery and an athletic frame. Like Brady Smith, he's not very physical at all, with less projection in his skinny 6' frame. The size, combined with his uneven 2023 and the surgery, makes his future in a major league rotation a big question mark. The Dodgers tend to blur the line between starter and reliever anyways, and he likely profiles as a slider-heavy lefty long reliever in the long term. I'm very interested to see where Los Angeles goes with this one once he gets healthy next spring. I imagine he may require a little bit above slot value to sign.

4C-136: OF Dylan Campbell, Texas {video}
Slot value: $473,700. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #164. MLB Pipeline: #171. Baseball America: #360. Prospects Live: #189.
Dylan Campbell struck me as a guy that would get drafted earlier than most public boards had him, and that turned out to be the case. He has gotten better and better every year at Texas and put up a career year in 2023, slashing .339/.436/.603 with 13 home runs and a 43/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, at one point riding a 38 game hitting streak. Though he may not have the highest upside in this class for the Dodgers, he does nearly everything well on the diamond starting with a patient approach in the box and a simple right handed swing that helps him get the barrel to the ball extremely consistently. He packs plenty of strength into his 5'11" frame, showing off average power in games despite rarely selling out to get to it. He actually performed better against his Big 12 schedule (.385/.455/.667) than he did overall, showing a scalable offensive profile that should be able to transition easily to pro pitching. Ultimately, he may not project to be more than a platoon bat/fourth outfielder, but he'll be a good one. In the field, the Houston native is a good runner with a plus arm (as evidenced by this incredible throw in the Stanford Super Regional) that will fit well in right field and should be able to handle center in a reserve role. It's about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to find in this range of the draft. In this range of the draft, he might take a slight under slot deal, but as a junior I don't imagine it will be too steep of a discount.

4C-137: RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $469,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #240. Baseball America: #209. Prospects Live: #263.
Eriq Swan is a project for the Dodgers, but they're always up for those. After two unremarkable seasons at Middle Tennessee State, he broke out with three excellent appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer, but promptly put up a 6.49 ERA and a 71/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings as a junior back in Murfreesboro. Swan is all arm strength, comfortably sitting in the mid to upper 90's over long starts and touching as high as 101 with his fastball. It lacks deception, though, and plays down from its velocity. He shows flashes with a hard, downer slider and a fading changeup, but they're inconsistent for him right now. The biggest issue with Swan is his below average command, which leads to him falling behind in the count and letting hitters sit on his fastball, which is hittable over the plate when hitters know it's coming. The 6'6" righty has short arm action and doesn't have too much wasted movement in his delivery, but Los Angeles will have to find a way to get him in the strike zone more consistently, both with his fastball and with his offspeed stuff. Swan looks like a reliever in pro ball, where he could sit around 100 with his fastball and not worry so much about hitting spots exactly. He hasn't signed yet but I don't imagine he'll be too terribly expensive in this range.

5-163: 1B Joe Vetrano, Boston College {video}
Slot value: $364,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #186. Baseball America: #318. Prospects Live: #240.
Joe Vetrano climbed prospect lists with a hot run at the end of the season, and was one of the next players I would have looked more closely at if I had more time before the draft. Like Dylan Campbell above him, he's gotten better and better every year at Boston College and had his best yet in 2023, slashing .315/.407/.671 with 22 home runs and a 58/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Vetrano takes thunderous hacks from the left side, showing off plus-plus raw power from a strong 6'3" frame and tapping it consistently in games. He's fairly aggressive and shows more swing and miss than you'd like from a first baseman, but with his power that's a tradeoff the Dodgers will make. A former pitcher, Vetrano shows off a strong arm but will likely wind up an average defender at first base, where his bat will have to carry him. He profiles as a platoon or bench bat, but the power gives him considerable upside. He won't be too expensive a sign at this range in the draft.

9-280: RHP Ryan Brown, Ball State {video}
Slot value: $173,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: #265. Prospects Live: #249.
This feels like a classic later round Dodgers pick. Ryan Brown has a lot he does well, but he also has a lot he does not do well, and the Dodgers have a strong track record with these types of arms. After redshirting his true freshman season, he showed well as a reliever during his redshirt freshman season at Ball State (2.14 ERA, 65/38 K/BB in 46.1 IP) and got off to a red hot start in 2023, striking out 27 of the 43 batters he faced (62.8%!) over his first three appearances against Charlotte, Rutgers, and Canisius. However, his season got a bit derailed from there, as he ran into a buzzsaw at Wake Forest, later hurt his knee, then eventually went down with Tommy John surgery, finishing the season with a 4.76 ERA and nearly a walk per inning. Brown sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 96 with the flat plane and carry the Dodgers love and do well with. He spins in a fringy slider that he lacks feel for, but his go-to out pitch is a plus-plus splitter that left MAC hitters simply confounded. The 6'2" righty is athletic on the mound but has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, leading to below average command that often ends up with him leaving his pitches up, spiking them in the dirt, and falling behind in the count. The Dodgers will look to clean up that delivery and help get him executing his pitches more effectively, which given the athleticism and arm talent should be a doable task. Brown is also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, so he'll still have plenty of time to work through things once he comes back from surgery. He profiles best as a reliever in the mold of a fellow small Indiana school-turned Dodger, Ryan Pepiot, though Pepiot has managed to stay in the rotation with better feel for spin. Brown has not signed yet and it's hard to project what it will take to get him to do so.

15-460: SS Jordan Thompson, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #377. Prospects Live: #326.
It took fifteen rounds, but the Dodgers finally got their first Californian with their seventeenth pick. Jordan Thompson hails from Chula Vista in the San Diego area, but headed across the country to play at LSU and ultimately win a National Championship. He's a three year starter at shortstop for the Tigers, proving central to the team's recent success. He's a loose bodied defender with great range and buttery smooth actions around the dirt, and during LSU's run towards the championship, head coach Jay Johnson actually shifted him back and forth between shortstop and second base depending on where he thought the batter was more likely to hit the ball. This may have been to Thompson's detriment as he made numerous unforced errors in that time, but it doesn't change his reputation as one of the better gloves in the class. At the plate, he doesn't necessarily stand out, with a career .260/.363/.419 slash line and 25 home runs over 195 games. Despite standing 6'1", he's not very physical and employs a line drive approach with a loose right handed swing. He can turn on the ball for moderate power with metal bats, but it remains to be seen how that power will play with wood, with below average power the most likely outcome. He has a moderately patient approach, but struck out at a 22.7% rate in 2023 and might be a fringy pure hitter as well. There's not a ton of offensive upside, so the Dodgers are buying the slick glove with the hope that his extensive experience against premium pitching in the SEC will translate to enough offensive impact that he can hold down a utility infielder role. And who knows, with his athletic frame and the Dodgers' player development system, they could change his approach in the box to help him attack pitches with more intent and tap a little more power.

18-550: LHP Sterling Patick, West Hills HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Sterling Patick wasn't ranked by any major outlet and seems like a candidate to get to school at UC Santa Barbara, but the Dodgers took him here in the eighteenth round just in case they could find the money to change his mind. He's a hometown kid, coming out of South Hills High School in West Covina, about twenty miles east of Dodger Stadium on I-10. Patick sits in the upper 80's with his fastball for now, touching 91 with crossfire angle. He drops in a big, looping curveball with two-plane bite similar to Reid Detmers when he grips it right, and does possess a changeup. It's a pretty free and easy delivery from a very skinny 6'1" frame that has room to get stronger, and he's young for the class which helps the projection a little bit. Patick will need to add considerable physicality to his frame in order to add velocity to both his fastball and his offspeed stuff and make it as a starter.

20-610: TWP/QB D.J. Uiagalelei, Oregon State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
To be honest, I know nothing about D.J. Uiagalelei as a baseball player and I don't feel inclined to research it, but this is certainly a unique pick. Uiagalelei was reportedly up to the mid 90's with his fastball in high school and the Dodgers appear to be interested in giving him a shot to pitch if his football career doesn't work out. For now, the former St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) star is competing for the quarterback position at Oregon State after transferring from Clemson, where most college football fans likely heard his name or saw him play.

Friday, December 2, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (east)

2022 draftees: 95. Top school: Southern Miss (5).
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/1/2021)

Top draftees:
1-13, Angels: SS Zach Neto (Campbell)
1-16, Guardians: OF Chase DeLauter (James Madison)
1-27, Brewers: SS Eric Brown (Coastal Carolina)
1-30, Giants: LHP Reggie Crawford (Connecticut)
CBA-36, Pirates: RHP Thomas Harrington (Campbell)
2-58, Mariners: 3B Tyler Locklear (Virginia Commonwealth)
2-66, Giants: LHP Carson Whisenhunt (East Carolina)

This article will focus on the Division I programs outside of the traditional Power Five conferences east of the Mississippi River, but programs like ECU, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Campbell, and Southern Miss, among many others, ensure that we're still talking about a very high level of play perhaps even higher than the Big Ten in some conferences. Southern Miss, for its part, led the programs in this category with five draftees a year ago, more than any team in the Big Ten, and returns another big name on this list in Tanner Hall even with likely first round pick Hurston Waldrep transferring to Florida.

The name Hurston Waldrep actually brings out an interesting factor. Now in the transfer era, it's only natural that the best players at smaller programs want to transfer to larger programs, and if there's a spot open, why shouldn't they? What that means for this list, though, is that there was a small exodus of talent to other lists – Waldrep from Southern Miss to Florida and Colton Ledbetter from Samford to Auburn as far as my previous lists go, plus Carter Trice from Old Dominion to NC State that just missed the ACC list. So that's at least three players that would have made this list that are instead trying their hands in the SEC and ACC. But that doesn't mean it's slim pickings around the Sun Belt, American, Big South, and elsewhere. No one school put multiple names on this list, but Southern Miss would have if they held on to Waldrep. A year ago, five different players from eastern mid major programs went in the first 36 picks – we'll have to see who emerges to make that happen again this year, but that's usually the case with the smaller schools. There are a lot of late bloomers here.

One more interesting theme: In an era where players often travel across the country to play college ball, nine of the ten players on this list stayed in their home state for college ball, and the only one to cross state lines, Tanner Hall of Southern Miss, still stayed within three hours of his hometown in Louisiana. Additionally, in an era where from personal experience I feel like I have seen many players who were on the older side for the class, each of the top nine players on this list will still be 20 years old at the end of January. And with four players who will still be 20 at the start of May, youth is certainly a theme.

1. RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 5/24/2002. Hometown: Waxhaw, NC.
2022: 4-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 111/38 K/BB in 84 innings.
Last year, Zach Neto was the first mid major player drafted from the eastern half of the country, and Campbell enters the 2023 season with the favorite to do it again in Cade Kuehler. He hasn't posted loud numbers yet for the Fighting Camels, but the stuff is certainly loud and he has a chance to take a big step forward this spring. His fastball sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97 with ease during his starts, but he has hit as high as 99 in shorter stints. Beyond the plus velocity, he gets explosive riding life on the pitch despite an unremarkable release point, so it can really perform when it's commanded. The fastball steals the show for now, but Kuehler also brings in a full arsenal of secondaries working in a short, hard slider, a bigger curveball, and a changeup. The slider is probably his best secondary for now, but the deep arsenal is strong throughout and he can consistently steal strikes with any of them. Further helping his profile is his delivery, in which he turns back towards second base and shows his back to the hitter before unfurling and firing towards the plate. For now, it does impact his command and that is likely the culprit for his unremarkable numbers (though you do love to see the 31.2% strikeout rate), but he's young for a college junior with a May birthday and has plenty of time to figure things out. If he can better keep his delivery in sync through that long trunk rotation, it's an easy first round profile given the stuff. Ironing out that command will also help stave off reliever questions, which aren't present yet but may arise due to his shorter stature and exaggerated delivery.

2. 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/14/2002. Hometown: Boynton Beach, FL.
2022: 16 HR, .369/.477/.658, 11 SB, 22/39 K/BB in 58 games.
Unlike Cade Kuehler, Nolan Schanuel's numbers do indeed pop off the page. He's been an absolute force since arriving in Boca Raton just up the road from his hometown of Boynton Beach, slashing .357/.462/.619 with 27 home runs and more than twice as many walks and HBP's (89) as strikeouts (43) over his two seasons. Unfortunately those numbers did not carry over to the Cape Cod League, where he went up against better pitching with wood bats and slashed just .211/.356/.324 in 41 games. Schanuel has an elite approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel, and even as he struggled to make an impact on the Cape, he still walked more (15.8%) than he struck out (15.3%), a very impressive feat in that league. Maintaining that elite ability to control the zone even when jumping from Conference USA to the Cape speaks volumes to the hit tool, and it should make evaluators very comfortable that he will be completely unfazed by higher level pitching in pro ball. And with FAU, you couldn't ask for better production. He holds his hands high in his stance, dropping them down in his load before throwing them through the zone with a loose, accurate barrel. He has worked to get stronger and he jumped from 23 extra base hits as a freshman to 33 as a sophomore, though he had just nine on the Cape and his ability to tap more than average power is a big question given his defensive limitations. He has played mostly first base at FAU, though he has experience in the outfield corners and he has enough speed to make it work out there if he doesn't slow down with age. Hit over power first base profiles aren't all that common, though this draft has three famous names on the college side in Schanuel, LSU's Tre' Morgan, and Oregon State's Garret Forrester that fit that profile. If he can bulk up a little more with that 6'3" frame, he does have the swing and feel for the barrel to tap 20+ home run power at his ceiling. For now, he profiles for high on-base percentages and 15-20 home runs a year as a median projection.

3. RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 3/18/2002. Hometown: Zachary, LA.
2022: 9-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 146/14 K/BB in 109 innings.
A year ago, Tanner Hall and Hurston Waldrep formed the best 1-2 punch of underclass pitchers in the country. Waldrep transferred to Florida, and while he is the better prospect of the two, Hall actually outpitched him last year. His 146 strikeouts were fourth in the country last year (Waldrep's 140 were eighth), and if you take the top 35 on the NCAA Division I strikeout leaderboard, he and Astros fourth round pick Trey Dombroski (120 strikeouts) tied for the fewest walks at 14. Hall has a solid three pitch mix, starting with a fastball around 90 with run and sink that helps it play above its average velocity. His slider is an above average pitch with sweeping action across the plate, while his changeup is above average in its own right with drop. Everything plays way up, of course, because of his plus command that helps him pick hitters apart while executing on that three pitch mix. He also hides the ball well, which combined with his command and the movement he gets on his pitches from a low three quarters arm slot, makes for an extremely tough at bat for hitters. It's the kind of profile the Guardians could turn into a big league ace, and if he adds a tick or two of velocity to get more comfortably into the low 90's, we have a very intriguing top two rounds prospect. Until he adds that velocity, he may fit better towards the back of the second/early third round range. He'll be one to watch closely now that he'll own the spotlight on the mound in Hattiesburg.

4. C Michael Carico, Davidson.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/4/2002. Hometown: Kernersville, NC.
2022: 21 HR, .406/.559/.843, 3 SB, 35/46 K/BB in 54 games.
I mentioned that Nolan Schanuel has posted incredible numbers at FAU, but Michael Carico's numbers at Davidson make Schanuel's look like child's play. Lightly recruited out of high school, he didn't make much of an impact as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore for one of the craziest stat lines in the country. His .559 on-base percentage led all of Division I, while his .843 slugging percentage was third and his .406 batting average finished eighth. In terms of production, it doesn't get any better than that. Like Schanuel, he brings elite plate discipline and rarely chases, allowing him to consistently find good pitches to hit. When Carico does get his pitch, he never misses it, punishing those mistakes at an elite level. His elite feel for the barrel from a controlled, leveraged left handed swing helps him tap above average power in games, setting the Davidson home run record this past spring. If there is one hole in his offensive game, it's that he's not quite proven against higher level pitching. Just eleven of his 54 games came against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, none of which placed better than a #3 seed, though to be fair he did hit .413/.500/.826 with five home runs and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio over those elven games. But ultimately, it was a very weak schedule if four games against VCU represents far and away your toughest test. He did go on to play in the Northwoods League over the summer, which isn't quite the Cape Cod League but still features strong competition, and he hit .263/.482/.447 over 24 games there. Ultimately, I believe his elite discipline at the plate will help him make that jump from the Atlantic 10 Conference to pro ball, but it is a jump, more so than Schanuel's jump from the C-USA. Defensively, the Piedmont Triad native is more athletic than most catchers and has a very good chance to stick back there, which would buy even more time for his bat to transition up. Lastly, Carico is also very young for the class, not turning 21 for more than a month after the draft and checking in younger than a few members of the 2024 college draft class.

5. OF Drew Brutcher, South Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 2/12/2002. Hometown: Lakeland, FL.
2022: 13 HR, .299/.447/.610, 1 SB, 60/37 K/BB in 43 games.
Drew Brutcher brings with him shades of Aaron Judge and Spencer Jones, but he's left handed. A career .297/.436/.582 hitter with 21 home runs in 75 games over two seasons in Tampa, he has been one of the better hitters in the AAC despite missing time in both seasons with injuries. He carried that success over to the Cape Cod League as well, where he slashed .270/.355/.409 with three home runs in 40 games. Brutcher is immensely talented, standing 6'5" with as much physical upside as any player in the class. The ball really jumps off his bat, coming in with a loose, leveraged left handed swing that helps him get to balls all over the zone and exert plus power. He also brings a very patient approach at the plate, helping him run an 18.6% walk rate at USF last year and 9.7% on the Cape, but his pure bat to ball and pitch recognition skills aren't quite there yet even with the adjustability in his swing. That's led to very elevated strikeout rates, including 30.2% at USF last year and 29.7% on the Cape, both well above where he needs to be. The good news is that between his power, adjustable swing, and patience at the plate, he already has most of the building blocks he needs to become an impact hitter. Taller hitters sometimes take longer to cut down on the swing and miss, and 2023 will be about recognizing pitches better in order to put it all together. The elevated strikeout rates have clearly not hurt his production yet. Defensively, he's a solid runner with a good arm that can play all over the outfield, though he may end up being pushed off center field as he slows down with age. It's an interesting sleeper profile that could break out into one for the top two rounds if he puts it together.

6. RHP Jay Driver, Harvard.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Wellesley, MA.
2022: 1-1, 1.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB in 28.1 innings.
Jay Driver comes to us with very limited track record, as the Ivy League's absurd COVID policies robbed him of his freshman season and he made just fifteen relief appearances as a sophomore. However, he opened a lot of eyes in those 28.1 innings and further made a name for himself on the Cape last summer, where he posted a 4.85 ERA but ran a very strong 48/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 innings, some even as a starter. That has him in position to become the Ivy League's first top five round pick since Yale's Rohan Handa went to the Giants in 2021, their first top four round pick since Cornell's Brent Jones went to the Diamondbacks in 2014, or even the first top three round pick since Princeton's David Hale went to the Braves way back in 2009. Driver sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, getting plenty of sink and run on the pitch from a sidearm slot. His sweeping slider flashes plus and can make hitters look foolish, helping him run up a 39.5% strikeout rate at Harvard and a 38.1% rate on the Cape, while his fading changeup gives him a third weapon. It's a really strong three pitch mix from an unusual arm angle that misses bats in bunches, and while his command is probably fringy for now, the stuff has still been enough to overwhelm Ivy League hitters and keep Cape Cod League hitters at bay. The 6'3" righty has a projectable, athletic frame and did see four starts on the Cape after pitching exclusively in relief for Harvard, but he hasn't been stretched out in that role consistently yet and it's unknown how the stuff and command will hold up over longer stretches. It's probably a bullpen profile, but it's one of my favorites in the class and one to keep a close eye on this spring.

7. RHP Trey Gibson, Liberty.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 230 lbs. Born 5/18/2002. Hometown: Yorktown, VA.
2022: 3-5, 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 72/30 K/BB in 56 innings.
Trey Gibson established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the A-Sun as a freshman, when he put up a 3.32 ERA and a 70/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings, but he took a step backward as a sophomore when his walk rate jumped from 7.9% to 11.2% and his ERA more than doubled. Still, the size, arm strength, and deep arsenal have plenty of scouts interested. Gibson sits in the low 90's with his fastball with the ability to reach back for a little more, though it's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise. He stands out for a big, deep curveball that misses a lot of bats, adding in a sweepier slider and a solid changeup to make for a quality four pitch mix. That, combined with the big, physical, 6'5" frame, has many scouts believing in his upside as a #4 starter in the big leagues. To get there, though, he'll have to improve his strike throwing, as his longer arm action leaves him with inconsistent command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff. He has quality stuff, especially the curveball, but it's not quite explosive enough to make up for being left over the plate or falling behind in the count, leading to that 6.75 ERA a year ago. He is young, only turning 21 a couple months before the draft, and that does help his case when it comes to putting everything together, but it still needs to happen. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of day two right now.

8. OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 7/3/2002. Hometown: Charlotte, NC.
2022: 16 HR, .304/.410/.595, 16 SB, 69/38 K/BB in 57 games.
Jake Cunningham brings some similarities to Drew Brutcher a couple spots above him on this list. Besides playing for a green and gold team in or coming to the AAC, he's a lanky, toolsy outfielder with hit tool questions coming off a big season. Cunningham didn't hit much as a freshman, but broke out for a huge sophomore season that earned him a spot in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He struggled there in a brief, seven game sample (.174/.269/.217), but he is firmly on area scouts' radars now. The Charlotte native takes big hacks from the right side, helping him generate above average power that he taps in games and which may become plus as he fills out. Cunningham shows strong pitch recognition skills that helps him get good pitches to hit, but that longer swing can lead to some swing and miss and he struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances last spring. As I mentioned with Brutcher, that can be natural for taller young hitters and many outgrow it in time. The fact that Cunningham is very young for his class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft, adds to that upside. He's also an above average runner with a chance to play center field in the long run, though also like Brutcher, a better defender could push him to right field where he would be above average. Aside from the pure bat to ball skills, it's a very well rounded profile that has already become a problem for opposing pitchers in the C-USA.

9. RHP William Privette, College of Charleston.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 210 lbs. Born 2/1/2002. Hometown: Chapin, SC.
2022: 3-1, 0.91 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 80/15 K/BB in 59.1 innings.
College of Charleston was quietly a very solid team last year, winning the CAA regular season title at 19-5 in conference on their way to a 37-20 finish. A big reason for that success was their closer, William Privette, who is looking to be the first Cougar drafted in the top five rounds since Taylor Clarke and Carl Wise went in the third and fourth round, respectively, in 2015. In fact, Charleston hasn't had a player drafted at all since three Cougars heard their names called in 2019, so Privette is a very exciting development for the program. He dominated CAA hitters with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, while recording nearly twice as many strikeouts (80) as baserunners allowed (49). He carried that success on to the Cape Cod League, where he made six relief appearances and posted a 1.74 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings. Privette won't light up the radar gun, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a solid breaking ball that plays well off the heater. It all plays up, though, for a variety of reasons. Despite longer arm action, the 6'5" righty manages to keep everything in sync and shows above average control, helping him stay ahead in the count and keep his pitches closer to the zones where they'll play better. He also shows heavy trunk tilt that helps him create a very vertical release point closer to the first base side of the rubber than you would expect from a right hander, and it works with his setup as he pitches from the first base side already. He also gets some sneaky life on his fastball up in the zone, and together, it's a great relief profile that provides a fairly unique look. It will be interesting to see if Charleston runs him out as a starter at any point, but he has been so successful in a relief role that they may not want to mess with it. With two quality pitches, good command, a big frame, a unique look, and a track record of performance, he checks a lot of boxes for a college reliever.

10. RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'6", 240 lbs. Born 10/31/2001. Hometown: Murfreesboro, TN.
2022: 2-6, 7.62 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 44/31 K/BB in 52 innings.
Eriq Swan gives us a second big right handed reliever in a row, but he is virtually the opposite of William Privette as a prospect. Swan showed well in a small sample as a freshman at Middle Tennessee State, but really struggled as a sophomore when he allowed more than a run per inning and ran just a 17.2% strikeout rate to a 12.1% walk rate. He earned three early season appearances in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed extremely well, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing just four hits and one walk mixed in with eleven strikeouts. It was all punctuated in his final appearance, when he struck out eight of the eleven Falmouth batters he faced on June 25th including Drew Brutcher on this list and possible top ten pick Brayden Taylor of TCU. Swan is a fireballer, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's as a starter and running it as high as 99 in short stints, all with a fairly effortless delivery from a huge 6'6" frame. He also drops in a a solid slider with great depth, though it does need too add power to miss pro bats, and shows feel for a solid changeup as well. To this point, he has not missed many bats at MTSU and looks like he would fit much better in relief, as his command is better in short spurts and it's easier for him to maintain his stuff. College starters who transition to relief work in pro ball often fare better than those who were already pure relievers when they were drafted, and if his short Cape run is any indication, Swan could be a sleeper to benefit from such a move with his power fastball and two quality offspeeds.