Friday, July 14, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Luxury tax penalties pushed the Dodgers' first pick outside the top 35 for the second year in a row, but they're one of the best teams in the league at drafting and developing so they can withstand the bump. Last year, they picked Louisville's Dalton Rushing with their first pick at #40 overall, and all he has done since is tear the cover off the ball in the low minors and looks like a steal already. And though they had that first pick pushed back, they did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson to free agency. Overall, this class leans on athleticism more so than present physicality and projection, with many draftees clocking in at 170 pounds or less. The Dodgers are looking for unique, unteachable traits that they can then leverage in their excellent player development system, something they've had a lot of success with in the past.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-36: OF Kendall George, Atascocita HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $2.36 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #65. Baseball America: #114. Prospects Live: #59.
If you look at most public boards, mine included, this pick may appear to be a bit of a reach. But we know better than to question the Dodgers' draft strategy at this point. Kendall George is a legitimate talent that rode a very loud spring down in the Houston area to this high pick. He has always been a plus-plus runner, a tool which carries his profile and especially adds value in today's game with more stolen base attempts. After looking overmatched last summer on the showcase circuit, he looked like a different ballplayer this spring and rocketed up draft boards. He's not the biggest kid in the world at a skinny 5'10", but he has lightning quick hands that whip the barrel through the zone with authority and help him pack more punch than you'd expect. The power is well below average for now and home runs will never be a primary part of his game, but as he fills out a little bit that explosive bat could help him tap 10-12 home runs per season down the line. The swing works well to all fields and lends confidence that he can continue to get on base regularly in pro ball. Defensively, the speed makes him an asset in center field, though he doesn't have much of an arm. George projects as a top of the lineup table setter that can wreak havoc on opposing pitchers and catchers, with enough pop to keep pitchers honest and great defense in center field. He's committed to Arkansas and at this point in the draft, I wouldn't expect his bonus demands to be too outlandish.

2-60: 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $1.34 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #54. MLB Pipeline: #35. Baseball America: #40. Prospects Live: #74.
Jake Gelof had an unremarkable freshman year at UVA, but over the past two seasons he has been without question one of the best hitters in the ACC, slashing .347/.450/.735 with 44 home runs over 123 games. The younger brother of A's rookie and Team Israel veteran Zack Gelof, Jake's bat packs a little more punch than his brother's in exchange for being slightly less of a pure hitter. The younger Gelof takes huge hacks from the right side, getting to baseballs all over the zone with his arms extended and catching them out front to elevate with authority. Despite the big hacks, he has very strong feel for the barrel and projects as a potential average pure hitter, with a fairly patient approach and solid contact rates. Although not very projectable, he's plenty strong right now with a filled out 6'1" frame and shows plus raw power already. It's the kind of bat that profiles in the middle of the order at his ceiling so long as he continues to make contact and control the zone against more advanced pitching. Defensively, he has shown well at third base and has enough arm to stick over there, though he has heavy feet and may move to first base if he slows down at all with age. That will put more pressure on the bat, but you don't put up the numbers he did in the ACC by accident. This is a little later than he was expected to get drafted but as a college player, I imagine he'll probably sign around slot value.

3-95: RHP Brady Smith, Grainger HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $705,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #192. MLB Pipeline: #138. Baseball America: #422. Prospects Live: #313.
In the third round, the Dodgers went down to Northeast Tennessee to grab a skinny right hander with big time stuff and athleticism. Many in the industry saw Brady Smith as a candidate to get to college at Virginia Tech and fill out a little bit, but the Dodgers bit early and will see what they make him into. Smith currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95 with flat plane and carry that makes it play up. He shows real feel to spin a breaking ball, with a sharp curveball and an improving slider in addition to a decent changeup. It all comes from a very skinny 6'2" frame that has some room to fill out, though for now he's not overly physical. Smith is also a great athlete that gets down the mound well with great extension. There's a lot to like in the whole package between the loose arm, feel for spin, and athleticism, though his development does hinge on his physical development. He'll need to add about twenty pounds of muscle to stick as a starting pitcher and withstand a full season's workload, something the Dodgers have plenty of experience with in the arms they've developed. This is probably the best possible landing spot for the kid from Bean Station, Tennessee. This is earlier than he was expected to get drafted, but with that Virginia Tech commitment in hand, I imagine he'll still require more than the $705,500 slot value to sign.

4-127: LHP Wyatt Crowell, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $516,800. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #127. MLB Pipeline: #112. Baseball America: #135. Prospects Live: #228.
Wyatt Crowell is a very interesting one. A key member of the Florida State bullpen as a sophomore in 2022 (2.12 ERA, 72/17 K/BB in 51 IP), he was poised to step into the rotation after the Seminoles lost their entire weekend rotation to the draft and transfer portal. Crowell showed extremely well in fall practice to push himself into second round consideration, but his velocity backed up as a junior and he ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery. In short stints, the Atlanta-area native can sit in the mid 90's and touch 98 with his running fastball, though this spring it dipped closer to 90 in longer outings. Still, he managed to put up a strong, albeit brief season (0.87 ERA, 33/11 K/BB in 20.2 IP) on the strength of his plus slider, a deadly offering that misses bats in bunches. He has worked in a curveball and a changeup at times before, but right now the money is on the slider. Before his injury, Crowell showed great ability to harness his lively stuff with average albeit inconsistent command, utilizing a loose delivery and an athletic frame. Like Brady Smith, he's not very physical at all, with less projection in his skinny 6' frame. The size, combined with his uneven 2023 and the surgery, makes his future in a major league rotation a big question mark. The Dodgers tend to blur the line between starter and reliever anyways, and he likely profiles as a slider-heavy lefty long reliever in the long term. I'm very interested to see where Los Angeles goes with this one once he gets healthy next spring. I imagine he may require a little bit above slot value to sign.

4C-136: OF Dylan Campbell, Texas {video}
Slot value: $473,700. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #164. MLB Pipeline: #171. Baseball America: #360. Prospects Live: #189.
Dylan Campbell struck me as a guy that would get drafted earlier than most public boards had him, and that turned out to be the case. He has gotten better and better every year at Texas and put up a career year in 2023, slashing .339/.436/.603 with 13 home runs and a 43/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, at one point riding a 38 game hitting streak. Though he may not have the highest upside in this class for the Dodgers, he does nearly everything well on the diamond starting with a patient approach in the box and a simple right handed swing that helps him get the barrel to the ball extremely consistently. He packs plenty of strength into his 5'11" frame, showing off average power in games despite rarely selling out to get to it. He actually performed better against his Big 12 schedule (.385/.455/.667) than he did overall, showing a scalable offensive profile that should be able to transition easily to pro pitching. Ultimately, he may not project to be more than a platoon bat/fourth outfielder, but he'll be a good one. In the field, the Houston native is a good runner with a plus arm (as evidenced by this incredible throw in the Stanford Super Regional) that will fit well in right field and should be able to handle center in a reserve role. It's about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to find in this range of the draft. In this range of the draft, he might take a slight under slot deal, but as a junior I don't imagine it will be too steep of a discount.

4C-137: RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $469,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #240. Baseball America: #209. Prospects Live: #263.
Eriq Swan is a project for the Dodgers, but they're always up for those. After two unremarkable seasons at Middle Tennessee State, he broke out with three excellent appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer, but promptly put up a 6.49 ERA and a 71/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings as a junior back in Murfreesboro. Swan is all arm strength, comfortably sitting in the mid to upper 90's over long starts and touching as high as 101 with his fastball. It lacks deception, though, and plays down from its velocity. He shows flashes with a hard, downer slider and a fading changeup, but they're inconsistent for him right now. The biggest issue with Swan is his below average command, which leads to him falling behind in the count and letting hitters sit on his fastball, which is hittable over the plate when hitters know it's coming. The 6'6" righty has short arm action and doesn't have too much wasted movement in his delivery, but Los Angeles will have to find a way to get him in the strike zone more consistently, both with his fastball and with his offspeed stuff. Swan looks like a reliever in pro ball, where he could sit around 100 with his fastball and not worry so much about hitting spots exactly. He hasn't signed yet but I don't imagine he'll be too terribly expensive in this range.

5-163: 1B Joe Vetrano, Boston College {video}
Slot value: $364,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #186. Baseball America: #318. Prospects Live: #240.
Joe Vetrano climbed prospect lists with a hot run at the end of the season, and was one of the next players I would have looked more closely at if I had more time before the draft. Like Dylan Campbell above him, he's gotten better and better every year at Boston College and had his best yet in 2023, slashing .315/.407/.671 with 22 home runs and a 58/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Vetrano takes thunderous hacks from the left side, showing off plus-plus raw power from a strong 6'3" frame and tapping it consistently in games. He's fairly aggressive and shows more swing and miss than you'd like from a first baseman, but with his power that's a tradeoff the Dodgers will make. A former pitcher, Vetrano shows off a strong arm but will likely wind up an average defender at first base, where his bat will have to carry him. He profiles as a platoon or bench bat, but the power gives him considerable upside. He won't be too expensive a sign at this range in the draft.

9-280: RHP Ryan Brown, Ball State {video}
Slot value: $173,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: #265. Prospects Live: #249.
This feels like a classic later round Dodgers pick. Ryan Brown has a lot he does well, but he also has a lot he does not do well, and the Dodgers have a strong track record with these types of arms. After redshirting his true freshman season, he showed well as a reliever during his redshirt freshman season at Ball State (2.14 ERA, 65/38 K/BB in 46.1 IP) and got off to a red hot start in 2023, striking out 27 of the 43 batters he faced (62.8%!) over his first three appearances against Charlotte, Rutgers, and Canisius. However, his season got a bit derailed from there, as he ran into a buzzsaw at Wake Forest, later hurt his knee, then eventually went down with Tommy John surgery, finishing the season with a 4.76 ERA and nearly a walk per inning. Brown sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 96 with the flat plane and carry the Dodgers love and do well with. He spins in a fringy slider that he lacks feel for, but his go-to out pitch is a plus-plus splitter that left MAC hitters simply confounded. The 6'2" righty is athletic on the mound but has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, leading to below average command that often ends up with him leaving his pitches up, spiking them in the dirt, and falling behind in the count. The Dodgers will look to clean up that delivery and help get him executing his pitches more effectively, which given the athleticism and arm talent should be a doable task. Brown is also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, so he'll still have plenty of time to work through things once he comes back from surgery. He profiles best as a reliever in the mold of a fellow small Indiana school-turned Dodger, Ryan Pepiot, though Pepiot has managed to stay in the rotation with better feel for spin. Brown has not signed yet and it's hard to project what it will take to get him to do so.

15-460: SS Jordan Thompson, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #377. Prospects Live: #326.
It took fifteen rounds, but the Dodgers finally got their first Californian with their seventeenth pick. Jordan Thompson hails from Chula Vista in the San Diego area, but headed across the country to play at LSU and ultimately win a National Championship. He's a three year starter at shortstop for the Tigers, proving central to the team's recent success. He's a loose bodied defender with great range and buttery smooth actions around the dirt, and during LSU's run towards the championship, head coach Jay Johnson actually shifted him back and forth between shortstop and second base depending on where he thought the batter was more likely to hit the ball. This may have been to Thompson's detriment as he made numerous unforced errors in that time, but it doesn't change his reputation as one of the better gloves in the class. At the plate, he doesn't necessarily stand out, with a career .260/.363/.419 slash line and 25 home runs over 195 games. Despite standing 6'1", he's not very physical and employs a line drive approach with a loose right handed swing. He can turn on the ball for moderate power with metal bats, but it remains to be seen how that power will play with wood, with below average power the most likely outcome. He has a moderately patient approach, but struck out at a 22.7% rate in 2023 and might be a fringy pure hitter as well. There's not a ton of offensive upside, so the Dodgers are buying the slick glove with the hope that his extensive experience against premium pitching in the SEC will translate to enough offensive impact that he can hold down a utility infielder role. And who knows, with his athletic frame and the Dodgers' player development system, they could change his approach in the box to help him attack pitches with more intent and tap a little more power.

18-550: LHP Sterling Patrick, West Hills HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Sterling Patrick wasn't ranked by any major outlet and seems like a candidate to get to school at UC Santa Barbara, but the Dodgers took him here in the eighteenth round just in case they could find the money to change his mind. He's a hometown kid, coming out of South Hills High School in West Covina, about twenty miles east of Dodger Stadium on I-10. Patrick sits in the upper 80's with his fastball for now, touching 91 with crossfire angle. He drops in a big, looping curveball with two-plane bite similar to Reid Detmers when he grips it right, and does possess a changeup. It's a pretty free and easy delivery from a very skinny 6'1" frame that has room to get stronger, and he's young for the class which helps the projection a little bit. Patrick will need to add considerable physicality to his frame in order to add velocity to both his fastball and his offspeed stuff and make it as a starter.

20-610: TWP/QB D.J. Uiagalelei, Oregon State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
To be honest, I know nothing about D.J. Uiagalelei as a baseball player and I don't feel inclined to research it, but this is certainly a unique pick. Uiagalelei was reportedly up to the mid 90's with his fastball in high school and the Dodgers appear to be interested in giving him a shot to pitch if his football career doesn't work out. For now, the former St. John Bosco (Bellflower, CA) star is competing for the quarterback position at Oregon State after transferring from Clemson, where most college football fans likely heard his name or saw him play.

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