Thursday, July 27, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

Full list of draftees

I love what the Braves did here with their draft. I typically prefer drafting bats early then pivoting to pitchers, but the Braves develop pitching well and I think they picked up three really interesting arms with their first three picks. Hurston Waldrep rivals Paul Skenes for the best stuff in the country, Cade Kuehler also has first round stuff at his best, and Drue Hackenberg is a fascinating selection that it looks like the Braves are willing to get creative with. In terms of the bats, Atlanta put a priority on hitters with strong batted ball data and more or less complete profiles at the plate, with fifth rounder Isaiah Drake providing notable upside.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-24: RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida {video}
Slot value: $3.27 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($273,000 below slot value).
My rank: #12. MLB Pipeline: #19. Baseball America: #18. Prospects Live: #17.
The Braves started off with a bang, getting the man who in my opinion was the second best college pitcher in the entire draft towards the back of the first round. Not only that, but they saved $273,000 and got a Georgia boy in the process – not bad at all. Waldrep grew up in the small South Georgia town of Thomasville, about a dozen miles north of the Florida line near Tallahassee. He began his career at Southern Miss, where as a sophomore in 2022 he established himself as one of the best pitchers in the country with a 3.20 ERA and a 140/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings. Transferring to Florida for his junior season this year, he was a bit less consistent and finished with a 4.16 ERA and a 156/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings. Waldrep's stuff is nasty, to say the least. His explosive fastball sits in the mid 90's, touching 99 with riding action that makes it at least a plus pitch. He spins two banger breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, with the former showing hammer action in the low 80's and the latter acting like a short, hard cutter in the upper 80's. The showstopper, though is a plus-plus splitter that really took a step forward with Florida this spring and might be an 80 grade pitch when he locates it. It doesn't just die out of his hand; it undergoes a spectacular, cinematic demise at the last second as it falls off the face of the Earth. Together, it gives Paul Skenes a legitimate run for his money for the best pure stuff in all of college baseball. The issue, however, has been command. The 6'2" righty is much more control over command, pounding the strike zone but often leaving his pitches over the plate. He's a powderkeg of athleticism with an uptempo delivery, but he'll need to channel that energy into a little more precision going forward. One reason scouts gave for his inconsistent performance this spring was also predictable pitch usage, with Florida having him throw too many fastballs behind in the count and too many breaking balls ahead in the count, making his stuff play down a tick. He was hot late in the season and in three NCAA Tournament starts against UConn, South Carolina, and Oral Roberts, he allowed just two runs on fifteen hits and seven walks while striking out 37 over 21 innings before faltering a little bit in his final start against eventual national champion LSU.

2-59: RHP Drue Hackenberg, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $1.37 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($628,200 above slot value).
My rank: #180. MLB Pipeline: #200. Baseball America: #148. Prospects Live: #195.
I'm fascinated by this pick. Drue Hackenberg was widely expected to go somewhere in the middle to back of day two, but not only did the Braves pop him in the second round, they signed him for a massive bonus close to the slot value for the #43 overall pick. Sometimes there is a massive disconnect between how the public boards view a player and how teams (or a single team) view them, and that was the case here. Obviously, by ranking him #180 on my board (which was still ahead of both MLB Pipeline and Prospects Live), I was part of the group sleeping on Hack, but the Braves' selection made me think about him in a different way and I see what they were getting at. He immediately established himself as a legitimate pitching prospect with a strong freshman season at Virginia Tech (3.30 ERA, 87/19 K/BB in 92.2 IP), but took a step backward as a draft eligible sophomore this year (5.70 ERA, 99/26 K/BB in 85.1 IP). On the surface, and I'm guilty of looking at the surface, Hackenberg is a fairly ordinary arm with ordinary stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out at 95 with running action that creates weak contact. His slider flashes above average with good downer action, playing well when he locates it down in the zone, while his changeup is a third fringy pitch. He pounds the strike zone with above average control but he got hit when he left stuff over the plate, so the command is closer to average. So what makes Drue Hackenberg special? First of all, look at his family. Both of his parents were Division I athletes, with dad a quarterback at UVA and mom a volleyball player at Lehigh. His oldest brother, Christian, was the starting quarterback at Penn State and was a second round draft pick to the NFL in 2016. The next brother, Brandon, was a first round pick into MLS after playing soccer at Penn State. Yet another brother, Adam, played baseball at Clemson and is currently playing in AA for the White Sox. Drue clearly has great genetics and is a much better athlete on the mound than you might expect, immediately opening up opportunities for the Braves to get creative with his development and pushing his ceiling much higher. He was also the victim of tough batted ball luck, as he ran a good strikeout (24.8%) and great walk (6.5%) rate in 2023 despite his high ERA. The Braves clearly see an opportunity here to break him down a little bit, play with the delivery and pitch shapes, and turn the 6'2" righty into legitimate impact starter. I'm fascinated to see how that goes.

2C-70: RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell {video}
Slot value: $1.05 million. Signing bonus: $1.05 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #46. MLB Pipeline: #59. Baseball America: #53. Prospects Live: #43.
The Braves got tremendous value here in the second compensation round, picking up a very similar pitcher to Hurston Waldrep minus the devastating splitter. Cade Kuehler has been a big part of the Campbell pitching staff for three years now, and he posted his best year yet in 2023 with a 2.71 ERA and a 91/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings. The stuff is huge, as you would expect with the Waldrep comparison. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 97 in longer outings and touching 99 in short stints, with exceptional riding action that makes it at least a plus pitch. He rips off a hard cutter/slider in the upper 80's that misses a ton of bats, while his curveball has more depth and his changeup gives him a fourth big league pitch. The 6' righty is a built similarly to Waldrep if a couple inches shorter, though aside from the splitter, he differs from his first round counterpart when it comes to the delivery. While Waldrep has a compact, uptempo delivery, Kuehler begins with a high leg kick while twisting back towards second base, leading to a long trunk rotation that he simultaneously combines with very short arm action. The result is that he hides the ball extremely well and creates plenty of deception, but it also leads to inconsistent command. That will be the main point of emphasis in his development and if he can take even minor steps forward there, he has a chance to be a real impact starter. That's a great get for just over a million dollars.

3-94: 3B Sabin Ceballos, Oregon {video}
Slot value: $714,100. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($116,600 below slot value).
My rank: #142. MLB Pipeline: #152. Baseball America: #206. Prospects Live: #138.
The Braves finally selected their first bat here with their fourth pick, making Sabin Ceballos the first Puerto Rican drafted this year as well. Ceballos began his career at San Jacinto JC in Texas, then transferred to Oregon for his junior year and slashed .333/.426/.643 with 18 home runs and a 36/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. It's a well-rounded profile at the plate, with strong plate discipline that helped him walk nearly as much as he struck out in his first year of Division I baseball. He prefers fastballs, but can do damage against breaking balls as well and should continue to progress in that regard. Well built at 6'3", 225 pounds, he shows off above average power in games, especially to the pull side, from a clean right handed swing. The pressure will be on the bat, because for now he's a fringy defender. Ceballos is a well below average runner that doesn't move well laterally, making third base a challenge going forward and likely ruling out the outfield as well, though he can charge the ball fairly well at the hot corner. He likely moves to first base, though he does have some experience catching and that could be a fun experiment. Despite the defensive limitations, it's tough to find this kind of a complete offensive profile for just $600,000, especially given that he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August. He has a chance to be an everyday first baseman that flirts with 20 home run seasons while posting solid on-base percentages. So far, he's picked up two singles in four at bats in the Florida Complex League, also drawing five walks in three games.

4-126: RHP Garrett Baumann, Hagerty HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $521,800. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($245,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #145. Baseball Reference: #263. Prospects Live: #177.
It took a few rounds longer than usual, but the Braves got their high school pitcher, giving Garrett Baumann mid third round money to sign away from a UCF commitment here near the end of the fourth round. He's a big, tall right hander at 6'8", 245 pounds, and the Braves see a potential workhorse starting pitcher. He presently sits in the low 90's with his running fastball, touching as high as 96-97 at best, and he should creep closer to that peak velocity more consistently as he progresses. He spins a sweeping slider that has nice shape but lacks power and finish at this point, so tightening that up will be a major point of contention. The Orlando-area native's changeup is fairly advanced for a high schooler, coming out of his hand similar to his fastball before dropping out. Already very physical, he repeats his delivery well and fills up the strike zone, giving him every opportunity to become an innings eating #3/#4 starter. Baumann is a little old for the class, turning 19 in August, but aside from the breaking ball he's pretty advanced as far as preps go and you don't find that kind of size every day. As a fun fact, he comes from the same Hagerty High School program that produced current Braves infielder/prospect Vaughn Grissom as well as Tigers outfielder Riley Greene.

5-162: OF Isaiah Drake, North Atlanta HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $367,500. Signing bonus: $747,500 ($380,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #215. Prospects Live: #297.
The Braves have never been shy about picking high school outfielders in their own backyard, and have previously had success with Jason Heyward (Henry County HS, McDounough), Drew Waters (Etowah HS, Woodstock), and Michael Harris (Stockbridge HS), with 2022 draftee Christian Jackson (Dutchtown HS, Hampton) perhaps next up for a breakout. They went back to the well again with Isaiah Drake, who was teammates with Red Sox third rounder Antonio Anderson this year at North Atlanta High School in Buckhead. Despite standing just 5'10", he's packed with power and athleticism uncommon in kids of any size, and it's apparent just by looking at him. Drake shows off plus raw power in batting practice, with a ferocious left handed swing that he can tone down in games and still generate easy bat speed. The hit tool has long been a question, with a raw approach at the plate and the tendency to get home run conscious, but he boosted his stock considerably with a strong showing in the MLB Draft League after his spring season ended, slashing .333/.486/.593 with a home run and more walks (8) than strikeouts (5) in eleven games. If that small sample is for real, then he could end up being a steal here in the fifth round. Drake is also a plus-plus runner with quick feet and agility, giving him a shot to stick in center field no matter how his glove develops. Like his bat, it's fairly raw, but he does also show off plenty of arm strength out there. Drake is young for the class and only turned 18 in July. His $747,500 signing bonus was also the same as fourth rounder Garrett Baumann, which in turn was already above slot value, meaning Drake's bonus was more than double the slot value and was enough to keep him from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's off to a bit of slow start in the FCL, with six strikeouts and a walk in nine plate appearances.

6-189: RHP Lucas Braun, Cal State Northridge {video}
Slot value: $292,700. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($54,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Lucas Braun went unranked on all major public boards, but that didn't stop the Braves from giving him their final over slot bonus of the draft. He spent two years at the University of San Diego but didn't pitch much, so he transferred closer to home at Cal State Northridge and was a central piece of their rotation in 2022 and 2023, combining for a 3.97 ERA and a 177/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 165.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low 90's with running action from a low slot, sneaking into the mid 90's at peak and playing up because he hides the ball well with short arm action. He spins both a slider and a curveball, though the latter can hump out of his hand at times and both play better when he keeps them down. Braun also has great feel for a changeup, giving him a true four pitch mix. The 6' righty isn't overly physical but repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone with solid command, giving him every opportunity to remain a starter at the next level. Though he's a senior sign, he is young for his class and therefore younger than some of the older juniors in the class, not turning 22 until August.

8-249: RHP Cory Wall, William & Mary {video}
Slot value: $190,300. Signing bonus: $47,500 ($142,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
This is a true sleeper pick, and I have to credit draft writer and current Cubs intern Mason McRae for being all over Cory Wall leading up to the draft. Wall spent four years at Fordham but after working regularly as a swingman in 2019 and 2020, injuries limited him to just eight innings combined between 2021 and 2022. He ended up at William & Mary as a grad transfer in 2023 and had his best year yet, posting a 3.98 ERA and a 63/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings. Wall sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping around 96 and getting nice riding action. He shows great feel to spin both a curveball and a slider, with the former showing deeper drop and the latter getting under bats with late two-plane action. Wall also shows an above average changeup that dives away from left handed batters late, making for a big league arsenal. The big, 6'4" righty looks plenty durable (though he did have injury trouble at Fordham) and repeats his delivery well, leading to above average command. It's a really complete package for a pitcher, with the only drawback (and it's an important one) being his age, as he turned 23 back in March and won't begin his first full pro season until he's 24. The ceiling is a bit limited as a back-end starter but he should move quickly to fulfill that role should he stay healthy.

11-339: OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #487. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jace Grady earned top two round buzz early in the 2022 draft cycle, but his junior year at Dallas Baptist was more good than great (.310/.419/.509, 10 HR) and he opted to return to school and try again. The end result was an almost identical season (.309/.416/.534, 12 HR), though he did drop his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 14.1% while slightly increasing his walk rate from 14.4% to 15.1%. Grady shows some power to the pull side and has tapped it consistently in games over the past couple years, though he's undersized at 5'9" and he'll likely top out around 10-15 home runs per season at best. His uptick in game power from 2021 to 2022 came with an increased strikeout rate, but he dropped it back down this spring while maintaining that power, which is a nice step forward for the profile. Overall, the switch hitter is very disciplined at the plate and gets on base at a high clip, where he used his above average speed and instincts to steal 65 bases in 171 games over the past three seasons. At this point, he's unlikely to stick in center field full time and actually played right field for the Patriots, and with a fringy arm he may ultimately be destined to left field, where he doesn't quite hit for enough impact to profile as an every day player. It's a nice fourth outfielder profile, though, with on-base skills, some ambush power, and enough speed to play center field from time to time if needed. He was on the younger side for the class last year so despite being a senior sign, he only turned 22 in May. So far, he has two doubles in six at bats in the FCL, adding three walks in three games.

13-399: 3B Will Verdung, Itawamba JC [MS] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It's not every year that the Mississippi Braves get to roster one of their own, but Will Verdung will hope to make that happen as he works his way up the minor league rungs over the next couple of seasons. Verdung grew up in Corinth in the northeast corner of Mississippi, then played two years of JuCo ball down at Itawamba JC in Fulton. He was a one man wrecking crew for the Indians, slashing .401/.496/.738 with 25 home runs and a 25/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games between his two seasons there. There isn't a ton of public information on him, but he's a 6'2" right handed hitter with a strong, clean swing albeit with a bit of a hitch at the start. He terrorized JuCo pitching across the Deep South with a disciplined approach that saw him strike out just 5.4% of the time in 2023 while walking at a nice 14.5% clip. Young for the class having just turned 20 in June, he has a chance to sneak up prospect boards if his power and plate discipline translate smoothly to pro ball, which is quite a jump. There is no public information or video on his defense, but he was drafted as a third baseman. He homered in his first professional at bat in the FCL, and overall is 3-7 with one strikeout and two walks through three games.

17-519: OF Kade Kern, Ohio State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #198. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #325. Prospects Live: #115.
This is really nice value for the Braves in the seventeenth round, where they got a legitimate hitter who may simply be a late bloomer. Kade Kern has been a bit of an enigmatic hitter at Ohio State, with a career .302/.382/.482 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 115/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games, but those strong numbers also include a dreadful 0-31 stretch during his sophomore season. He also struggled in a large sample in the Cape Cod League (.194/.283/.269, 30.3% strikeout rate over 46 games), and it's hard to know what to make of him at this point. What we do know, though, is that the talent is there. Kern packs plenty of strength into his 6' frame, with above average power and strong ability to elevate the ball with authority. He does a great job of getting extended through the zone, though his right handed swing can get long and does lead to swing and miss, including close to a 20% strikeout rate in 2023. His struggles on the Cape compound the concern of him being able to tap his power in pro ball, but if he can tighten up that swing a little, he's disciplined enough and plenty strong enough to do so. Kern is also a solid runner with a strong arm that could be above average in right field. He profiles as a potential platoon bat if everything clicks. It hasn't quite yet, as he's hitless in nine at bats in the FCL with one strikeout in three games.

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