Saturday, July 15, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

Steve Cohen's massive spending spree pushed the Mets' first pick back to #32, but they still landed a consensus first round talent in Colin Houck for a surprisingly reasonable signing bonus. They did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, and they also got an extra third round pick for failing to sign Brandon Sproat last year (who they ironically drafted again this year). The two major themes of this packed draft class were college pitchers and high school shortstops, with each of the Mets' first eleven picks falling into those categories. Behind Houck, New York also drafted A.J. Ewing and Boston Baro, the three of whom combined to sign for over $800,000 above their respective slot values. I'm a big fan of the Houck pick, personally, and I think that pick makes the Mets' draft.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-32: SS Colin Houck, Parkview HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $2.61 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($142,500 above slot value).
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #12. Baseball America: #21. Prospects Live: #18.
Arguably the best prep shortstop in the country, Colin Houck somehow made it to the Mets at pick #32 despite buzz he could go as high as the top ten. Perhaps even more surprisingly, he only signed for slightly above slot value, with his $2.75 million bonus sitting between the values of the 29th and 30th picks. This all amounts to a huge coup for the Mets, as Houck is as talented as they come. The Atlanta-area product is an excellent athlete who had Division I football offers as a quarterback, and that athleticism translates seamlessly to the diamond. He's a well-rounded hitter with more polish at the plate than you'd expect from a two-sport star, showing the ability to recognize offspeed stuff and work counts effectively. Utilizing a clean, powerful right handed swing, he shows off above average power in games, especially this spring where he teed off against strong Atlanta-area competition. Some swing and miss can occasionally creep into his game when he gets too big and tries to yank balls to the moon, though he usually does a good job of staying within himself and he's a very impactful hitter when he does. Defensively, Houck shows off the plus arm that served him well on the football field, and his athleticism helps him make all the plays at shortstop. He's more of an average runner than a plus one, so there is the potential that he gets forced to third base by a better defender, but the Mets will give him every shot to stick at shortstop and it's very possible that renewed focus on baseball alone could help him pull his defensive game together fully. Houck had been committed to Mississippi State before the Mets brought him on.

2-56: RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida {video}
Slot value: $1.47 million. Signing bonus: $1.47 million.
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #48. Prospects Live: #48.
A year ago, the Mets drafted Brandon Sproat in the third round at 90th overall, but couldn't come to terms with him and he was the second highest pick to go unsigned, behind fellow Mets 2023 draftee Nolan McLean. This time, they got the deal done at slot value and they'll get an older, wiser, more developed version of Sproat. One of the major concerns that held his stock back was a low 21.5% strikeout rate in 2022, but he bumped that up to 28.8% in 2023 while holding down a 4.66 ERA across over one hundred innings. He's all about the arm strength, sitting in the mid 90's deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short bursts. The fastball can get straight, often playing below its impressive velocity, but he does have a full arsenal of secondaries to keep hitters off balance. The Pensacola-area native shows solid feel to spin the ball, with his slider likely ahead of his curveball and a cutter to go with them, though he really stands out for an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. Sproat is more control over command and his walk rate ticked up to 10.3% in 2023 from 8.6% a year ago. The 6'3" righty also has some effort and moving parts in his delivery, including a double leg break as he extends towards the plate, that might point to a future in the bullpen, but he has so much present arm strength that he still maintains his stuff over longer outings. In drafting him this early despite turning 23 in September, the Mets are buying in on Sproat as a starting pitcher and hoping they can find a way to add some bat-missing qualities to his fastball. Given his age, he'll want to move fairly quickly.

3-91: RHP/OF Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $747,600. Signing bonus: $747,600.
My rank: #184. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #184. Prospects Live: #289.
Ironically, the only player drafted higher than Brandon Sproat last year to go unsigned was Nolan McLean, the Orioles' third round pick at #81 overall. Even more ironically, this pick is actually compensation for failing to sign Sproat last year. McLean is very well known to scouts, having been an early round draft prospect out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2020 before being draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 and again as a junior in 2023. A year ago, it was seen as a tossup whether he'd be a hitter or a pitcher in pro ball, maybe leaning pitcher, and though the Mets drafted him as a two-way player, his future likely lies on the mound. After mostly working one inning at a time in 2022, he earned a longer leash and often went three to four innings in his outings in 2023. There is plenty of arm strength here, as he can sit in the mid 90's in short stints while topping out around 98, with nice running life to boot. He has steadily improved his feel for spin and his slider now flashes plus, while his curveball and changeup are usable pitches as well. Like Sproat, McLean is more control over command but has looked more polished as he's gotten more innings under his belt. A tremendous athlete, the 6'4" righty originally committed to Oklahoma State as a quarterback as well, so he has projection remaining and moves well on the mound. Most of the signs point to him being a reliever in the long run, but if the Mets are taking him in the third round and have him give up hitting, they may have hopes of trying to stretch him out. The Mets did draft him as a two-way player, and there is certainly talent on that side of the ball as well. He has massive raw power, as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run last year, and has clubbed 36 home runs over his three years in Stillwater. He's also a patient hitter, running low chase rates and walking at a very healthy 17.6% clip in 2023. However, McLean has a very grooved swing and struggles to make contact even on pitches over the plate, with his 107 strikeouts in 2022 setting a Division I record and his 37.3% strikeout rate in 2023 being equally as frightening. It's hard for me to see him tapping his power in pro ball with swing and miss issues like that. Defensively, Oklahoma State moved him to the outfield in 2023 to take pressure off his arm, but he is athletic enough to handle third base. I expect him to move to pitching full time sooner rather than later.

3-101: RHP Kade Morris, Nevada {video}
Slot value: $666,500. Signing bonus: $666,500.
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #142. Baseball America: #166. Prospects Live: #123.
Kade Morris gives the Mets an interesting arm to play with. Earning a bigger and bigger role at Nevada every year, he served as the Wolfpack's Friday night starter this spring with solid results, posting a 5.42 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings despite playing in one of college baseball's most hitter-friendly environments. Morris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 97 at best, though the pitch has modest life and gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. He drops in an above average slider that functions as his main bat misser, while his deeper curveball looks like an average pitch and his changeup has made nice progress in Reno. He improved his strikeout rate from 18.5% as a sophomore to 22.5% as a junior, but it's still a lower number than you'd expect given his stuff and the Mets will want to find a way to help him continue that upward trend. The 6'3" righty still has projection remaining and is a very good athlete on the mound, giving New York a lot to work with to help him on his progression towards becoming a major league starting pitcher. He doesn't walk a lot of hitters and I think all the ingredients are there save for a lack of deception. The Central Valley native is also on the younger side for the class, nearly a year younger than Nolan McLean, signed for full slot value.

4-123: RHP Wyatt Hudepohl, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $536,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #299. Prospects Live: #216.
Wyatt Hudepohl pitched two seasons at Kentucky, then transferred to Charlotte this spring where he has stepped into a larger role. Making seventeen starts, he posted a 4.27 ERA and a 129/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, including a seventeen strikeout complete game against Old Dominion and five more double digit strikeout games after that, including in the Clemson Regional against Lipscomb. The stuff here is pretty interesting – Hudepohl sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95-96 at best with nice riding action, while adding a power curveball and a hard changeup with nice fade. He can also work the fastball into a cutter. The entire four pitch mix plays as at least average to above average, and when it's all working, he can be impossible to hit as you can see from the numbers above. The 6'4" righty has some effort in his delivery, getting deep into his back leg before pushing off towards the plate, but has shown the ability to maintain his stuff and control over long outings while leaning on his offspeed and should get a shot to crack it as a starter. He has a chance to be a solid #4.

4C-134: SS A.J. Ewing, Springboro HS [OH] {video}
Slot value: $483,000. Signing bonus: $675,000 ($192,000 above slot value).
My rank: #139. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #171. Prospects Live: #101.
A.J. Ewing was a favorite of many evaluators before the draft, and it looks like the Mets were big fans too. The second straight pick out of the Cincinnati area, Ewing showed very well on the showcase circuit and continued to perform back in Ohio, steadily climbing up boards. He's very skinny at a listed 6', 160 pounds, but stands out for springy athleticism on top of his track record of performance. Ewing can really whip the barrel through the zone for a kid his size and has shown nice pull side power with metal bats, and if he can tack on 15-20 pounds of muscle in pro ball, it should play with wood as well. He can handle quality offspeed stuff and moves well in the box in general, making him a very projectable hitter to dream on. In the field, his athleticism is apparent on the dirt and the Mets will send him out as a shortstop, though he needs to use a longer arm stroke to make throws on balls to his right and may fit better at second base, where he can more easily flick the ball to first base. This profile hinges on added physicality as he matures, which would help both in the power and defense departments. He's a little old for the class already. Previously committed to Alabama, he signed for nearly $200,000 above slot value.

4C-135: RHP Austin Troesser, Missouri {video}
Slot value: $478,200. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($128,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #143.
Austin Troesser didn't get much love on public boards (credit to Prospects Live for being in on him), and he wound up signing for early sixth round money here at the end of the fourth round. Troesser has been a valuable member of the Missouri bullpen the past two seasons, and in 2023 put up a 4.73 ERA and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for the Tigers. He primarily stands out for a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to around 98 at best, playing up with riding life and helping him miss a high number of bats. The slider is a little more inconsistent at this point but has looked good at times, while he hasn't really needed much of a changeup in the bullpen. He'll stay in the bullpen going forward, where the Mets will look to help him continue adding velocity and find consistent feel for that slider. The 6'3" righty has thrown strikes in his career at Missouri and profiles as a medium leverage reliever.

5-159: LHP Zach Thornton, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $378,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #190. Prospects Live: #142.
Zach Thornton was on the annual shortlist of names I would have researched if I had a few more days before the draft. Every year you have to cut it off somewhere, and Thornton just missed. He put up a great season at Grand Canyon, posting a 3.87 ERA and a 91/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings, numbers which look even better when you consider college baseball's offense-friendly environment this year. The stuff isn't all that loud, with a fastball hovering around 90, touching 94, a pair of breaking balls that stand out more for their depth than their velocity, and a seldom-used changeup. Instead, the calling card is his pitchability, as the Kansas native mixes his pitches exceptionally well to keep hitters constantly off balance. He gets the kind of swings you see when position players pitch in MLB and mix 85 MPH fastballs with 38 MPH eephuses, which is also a testament to the deception in his delivery. To succeed in pro ball, the 6'3" lefty will have to add considerable strength to his lanky frame. If he can get his fastball more consistently into the low 90's and add some power to his breaking balls, he becomes a very interesting back-end starting pitching prospect. For now, he'll likely go torment low minors hitters used to seeing poorly located 96 instead of deceptive 89.

8-246: SS Boston Baro, Capistrano Valley HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $192,900. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($507,100 above slot value).
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #98. Prospects Live: #127.
In their biggest over slot splurge of the draft, the Mets went and spent late third round money to sign eighth rounder Boston Baro away from a UCLA commitment, where he would have been competing for playing time with one of the top incoming shortstop recruits in the country in Roman Martin. Baro is an advanced prospect for a high schooler, taking impressively professional at bats and performing very well against strong Southern California pitching this spring. Very skinny at 6'2", there is very little impact power in the bat at this point from a line drive approach, though the Mets hope that he can get to fringy power in time as he fills out. Doing so would elevate the profile considerably. He's very light on his feet at shortstop and moves well to both sides, making all the plays consistently with enough arm strength to make it work. He figures to stay at shortstop initially, though in competing with Colin Houck and A.J. Ewing from this class alone, he may be forced to second base in the long term. Like Houck and Ewing, Baro is on the older side for the class and will be 19 before his first professional season is through.

9-276: 3B Nick Lorusso, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $175,100. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($125,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #292. Prospects Live: #194.
The Mets went with a bit of a hometown pick in Nick Lorusso, who grew up in Monroe in Fairfield County, Connecticut a little northeast of New York City. He began his college career at Villanova, where he had a solid but unremarkable three years. Since he transferred to Maryland in 2022, though, he's been a different hitter. After hitting five home runs in three years at Villanova, he broke out for fifteen in 2022, then in 2023 had one of the better offensive seasons in the country by slashing .379/.446/.765 with 26 home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Lorusso is strongly built at 6'2" and effectively channels that strength into a powerful right handed swing, with impressive batted ball data that should continue to play with wood. Against moderately strong pitching in the Big Ten, he hammered all kinds of pitches and looked like an advanced hitter in the box, which should be expected given that he'll turn 23 in September. A third baseman at Maryland, he's just alright over there and may ultimately move to first base, where his bat should profile just fine. Lorusso will want to move quickly given his age but he did provide the Mets with $125,100 in savings.

12-366: RHP Brady Kirtner, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #428.
Brady Kirtner is a pure reliever profile, but an interesting one nonetheless to nab here in the twelfth round. A local kid from Christiansburg who stayed home to attend Virginia Tech just down the road, he didn't get into a game as a true freshman and had an uneven redshirt freshman season in 2022, but took a step forward in 2023 with a 4.62 ERA and a 36/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kirtner sits in the mid 90's with his fastball in short stints, up to around 96 with nice riding action, while his slider flashes nice late bite at times and can generate ugly swings with high spin. Skinny at 5'11" and utilizing an uptempo delivery, he's unlikely to make the transition to the rotation especially considering his shallow arsenal and fringy command. But he's trending in the right direction and if the Mets can help him continue down that path, perhaps by adding a little more velocity and improving his command by smoothing out the delivery a little, he has a future as a fastball/slider reliever in Flushing.

13-396: RHP Ben Simon, Elon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
There is not a ton of information out there on Ben Simon, but I wanted to highlight him quickly as another hometown pick. Simon grew up in East Windsor in Central Jersey and attended nearby Highstown High School along the Jersey Turnpike a little east of Trenton. After an up and down freshman season, he has been a valuable reliever at Elon the past two seasons with a combined 3.36 ERA and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. At 5'11", he's mostly physically maxed out and likely remains in the bullpen with average control. I only found video of him throwing two pitches, both riding fastballs up and away from lefties for strikeouts from what looks like a moderately low release.

19-576: RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #197. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #306. Prospects Live: #161.
It's unlikely that Christian Little signs here, but he's a famous name and deserves a spot in this writeup. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire class in 2021, he instead reclassified and enrolled early at Vanderbilt at just 17 years old. He held his own in two seasons as a swingman for the Commodores, then transferred to LSU for his junior season in 2023 where things did not quite go as planned, with a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings. Little has plenty of stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 98 with his fastball, also showing the ability to cut it in the upper 80's. His offspeed stuff is inconsistent, though the slider flashes above average and he also shows a curveball and changeup. The biggest thing holding him back has been command, as he regularly falls behind in the count and has to find a way to dig himself out. The delivery can get rigid, which doesn't help, and now in three years in the SEC he has not progressed as a prospect. The good news is that not only is the arm strength absolutely still there, but he is also extremely young for the class, nearly three years younger than Brandon Sproat and still nearly two years younger than some college juniors. If he goes back to LSU for another season, which it looks like he will, he'll still be young for the class in 2024.

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