The Astros went their own way in this draft, with many of their selections not lining up with public boards and perception, but they have drafted well in the past and I trust what they're doing. The hitters represent an emphasis on batted ball data, especially between guys like Brice Matthews and Cam Fisher who possess some of the best raw exit velocities in the class. The pitching, meanwhile, was all on the college side, led by one of the more interesting arms at the top of the college class in Alonzo Tredwell. Houston also picked up two Houston-area natives, which is a nice tie in.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-28: SS Brice Matthews, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $2.88 million. Signing bonus: $2.48 million ($402,500 below slot value).
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #57. Baseball America: #57. Prospects Live: #41.
The Astros stayed in their own backyard with their first pick, grabbing Brice Matthews out of Nebraska. Though he spent his college career in Lincoln, Matthews grew up in Humble, Texas, in the shadows of IAH Airport and attended Atascocita High School less than twenty miles northeast of Minute Maid Park. After two middling seasons at Nebraska, Matthews broke out for a massive junior season in 2023 by slashing .359/.481/.723 with 20 home runs with a 53/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He has huge bat speed from the right side that produces plus-plus raw power and elite batted ball data overall. He has also become a more patient hitter as he's developed, and with strong adjustability in his right handed swing he can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone. With a pull-oriented approach, he does run into some swing and miss in the zone and ran 20% strikeout rate in 2023, a little higher than you'd like especially in the Big Ten. It's still a strong overall offensive profile with the potential for 25-30+ home runs per year and solid on-base percentages. A former high school quarterback and a successful one at that, his athleticism is apparent on the diamond but his actions at shortstop are a bit raw. He has a chance to stick there with further development but with a solid arm and plus speed he could really end up anywhere on the diamond. His $2.48 million signing bonus was more than $400,000 below slot value, giving the Astros an opportunity to spend big later in the draft.
2-61: RHP Alonzo Tredwell, UCLA {video}
Slot value: $1.3 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #64. Prospects Live: #86.
Alonzo Tredwell has a bit of a different profile, and he makes a fun one for the Astros with some parallels to their second round compensation pick a year ago, Andrew Taylor. Tredwell drew considerable attention during the 2021 draft despite undergoing Tommy John surgery but made it to campus at UCLA, and he's been lights out for the Bruins. After a huge freshman season out of the bullpen (2.11 ERA, 62/6 K/BB in 47 IP), he stepped into the rotation in 2023 with good results, posting a 3.57 ERA and a 51/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.1 innings. The profile here is fairly unique – standing 6'8" with great body control, he gets down the mound extremely well with a combination of extension and height that makes his release point fairly unique. While his fastball only sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96, he gets nice riding action on the pitch and that unique release point really gives it a different look. He shows a curveball and slider, both with downer action, as well as a slider, though he's still gaining feel for that offspeed stuff. The slider stands out as perhaps his best offspeed pitch for now. The Southern California native pounds the strike zone with above average command and moves well on the mound, so any added velocity would really play. The biggest drawback with Tredwell's profile is health, as he didn't pitch after April 22nd with back problems and that's a bit more on the complicated side when it comes to nagging injuries. If he can stay healthy and add a little velocity, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter.
3-99: RHP Jake Bloss, Georgetown {video}
Slot value: $678,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #147. MLB Pipeline: #178. Baseball America: #250. Prospects Live: #121.
If Alonzo Tredwell has some similarities to Andrew Taylor, then Jake Bloss has some similarities to the Astros' third round pick last year, Michael Knorr. Bloss began his career at Lafayette, where he was unremarkable as an underclassman but had a nice junior year in 2022. Graduating in three years, he transferred to Georgetown to get a masters' degree in finance, and with eligibility remaining, he joined the baseball team as well. Fourteen appearances later, he hung his hat on a 2.58 ERA and a 96/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.2 innings, including some outstanding outings against Iona, Hartford, Creighton, and St. John's. The stuff all got considerably louder while he retained his strong pitchability, and now he may want to put the finance world on hold as a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Bloss now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with riding action. He has feel for two distinct breaking balls in a deep curveball and a shorter slider, with the ability to work in a changeup as well. Well built at 6'3", he pounds the strike zone with solid command and feel for pitching, giving him every chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. Though he's a senior sign, he's on the younger side for his class and isn't too much older than some juniors drafted this year. He has a chance to work up the ladder quickly like Knorr, who is already showing well in High A.
4-131: OF Cam Fisher, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $497,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #112. MLB Pipeline: #210. Baseball America: #141. Prospects Live: #120.
In Cam Fisher, the Astros pulled in some of the best raw power in the class. Fisher began his career at Ole Miss but didn't play, spent a year at Walters State Community College near his hometown in Tennessee, then transferred to Charlotte in 2022 and took just two seasons to set the school's all time home run record at 48. In fact, 2023 was his best season yet as he slashed .348/.507/.813 with 30 home runs and a 63/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. The 30 home runs were third in all of Division I, behind only likely 2024 first rounder Jac Caglianone and 2023 first rounder Brock Wilken (Brewers). Fisher can crush a baseball with the best of them, with elite 90th percentile exit velocities approaching 110 MPH and a natural ability to lift the ball with authority. Fisher is also an extremely patient hitter that rarely chases and effectively works counts to find a pitch he can elevate. If he doesn't, he's more than happy to draw a walk and did so over 20% of the time in 2023. The drawback in the profile here is swing and miss in the strike zone, as he can get overpowered by higher quality stuff (especially offspeed) and that will be a concern in pro ball when pitchers are more capable of living in the zone when they choose to. If Fisher can find a way to shore up his bat to ball ability in the zone, he has a chance to be a real impact hitter for Houston. Defensively, he runs well enough to handle a corner outfield spot but overall profiles as an average corner outfielder. The most likely outcome here is as a power hitting platoon bat.
5-164: SS Chase Jaworsky, Rock Canyon HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: $360,800. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #395.
This is a real sleeper pick for the fifth round. Chase Jaworsky went unranked on most public boards and only holds a commitment to Utah Valley University, in stark contrast to many top drafted preps typically headed to blue blood programs. He's a trajectory pick, as he wasn't even considered a prospect until recent strong showcase and spring performances late in his high school career. Jaworsky is skinny and projectable at 6'1", with a simple left handed swing that channels his core strength for some power to the pull side. As he fills out and learns to get his arms extended a little more, the power could continue to develop. Otherwise, he doesn't have much track record against higher level pitching, and much of his exposure came from playing on the same Colorado-based travel team as Giants second rounder Walker Martin. He's also a good runner with a good shot to stick at shortstop, though I couldn't find much video fo his defense.
11-344: OF Nehomar Ochoa, Galena Park HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #348. Prospects Live: #385.
Nehomar Ochoa gives the Astros a second hometown pick. Originally from Venezuela, he moved to the Houston area as a kid and grew up in Galena Park, just seven miles east of Minute Maid Park amidst the ports and oil refineries along Buffalo Bayou. A two-way player in high school that earned considerable interest as a pitcher, where he was up to 95, he'll be a position player only in the Astros' system. Ochoa is big and strong at 6'4", with above average raw power that he has tapped against his Houston-area competition. He hasn't been seen much against higher level competition on the showcase circuit, so the Astros are buying into that power and his strong track record locally. Ochoa is also young for the class, exactly one year younger than Chase Jaworsky (who is on the older side for the class) to the day, which always helps with projectability. The arm plays in the outfield and he plays solid defense. Committed to the University of Houston, it sounds like he'll instead sign with, well, Houston.
15-464: C Garret Guillemette, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #339.
The Astros plucked Garret Guillemette out of the University of Texas in the fifteenth round. A California transplant, he grew up in the Los Angeles area and began his career at Southern California, where he was solid but unspectacular, then broke out to slash .298/.401/.541 with eleven home runs and a 52/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in his lone season in Austin. Standing 6'1", Guillemette has a classic catcher's profile with a sturdy frame, some pop, and the ability to control the strike zone. His pure bat to ball skills are average and he did strike out close to 20% of the time in 2023, so the bat likely limits his ultimate ceiling to that of a backup catcher. He's fairly strong behind the plate, with a good arm and the defensive feel for the game to stick.
16-494: C Will Bush, Tyler JC [TX] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Will Bush gives the Astros a fourth player with Texas ties. A native of North Richland Hills in the Fort Worth area, he attended Tyler Community College in East Texas and raked to the tune of a .357/.510/.617 slash line, eight home runs, and a 35/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. Moving on to the MLB Draft League this summer, he hit just .185/.313/.185 in a seven game sample. Just a freshman, he only turned 19 in March and comes with much more boom/bust potential than Garret Guillemette. Bush is big and strong at 6'4", 230 pounds, with big raw power from the left side that he's still learning to tap in games. A patient hitter, he walked at a sky-high 23.7% clip for Tyler JC this spring, and continued to draw walks in the MLB Draft League even if the rest of the production wasn't really there. He's otherwise raw at the plate, with a very open stance and a high hand set that may or may not need to be tweaked in pro ball. It's a similar story behind the plate, with a strong arm that will help keep him back there.
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