2023 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

Lacking a third and a fifth round pick after signing Trea Turner in the offseason, the Phillies bet big on three high school bats with their first three picks, including arguably the best all-around hitter in the class outside of the consensus top two, Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. That Aidan Miller fell into their laps at the end of the first round and only required a small over slot bonus is a huge boon for Philadelphia. Behind Miller, their class is filled with players that were in that next batch of names I would have liked to research if I had more time. Beyond there, it's a physicality-laden class with fourteen of their final seventeen overall picks listed at 6'2" or taller and six coming in at 6'4" or taller.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: SS Aidan Miller, J.W. Mitchell HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: $3.1 million ($131,200 above slot value).
My rank: #17. MLB Pipeline: #13. Baseball America: #20. Prospects Live: #22.
The Phillies successfully floated Aidan Miller down to their first pick, injecting a consensus mid-first round talent into their system at the back of the round. Miller is one of the best all-around hitters in the prep class, perhaps the single best high school bat after the consensus top two. He already packs tremendous strength into his 6'2" frame, helping him produce plus power that shows up consistently in games and against high level competition. Though he has an excellent track record of performance, there are some questions about his load, which includes a sizable hitch that entails pointing his bat straight in the air, stabbing backwards, and pulling his hands back into a hitting position before his swing. Though some scouts are concerned by this, others see it more as a timing mechanism and point to his ability to catch up to velocity with no trouble. The Tampa-area native can chase high fastballs at times, but generally sees the ball very well east-west and takes strong at bats. This is a hitter that could hit for both power and average at a high clip in the majors. Beyond the bat, there are some minor questions. He's not a quick twitch athlete and will have to work hard to stick at third base, where his plus arm is plenty but his range will have to hold where it's at to avoid a move to first base. Miller also missed most of his high school spring season with a broken hand and hasn't been seen much since last summer, and lastly, he's very old for the class, having turned 19 back in June. Committed to Arkansas, it took over $100,000 above slot value to pull him away from Fayetteville (between the slot values of the 25th and 26th pick) which honestly looks like a steal to me.

3-98: SS Devin Saltiban, Hilo HS [HI] {video}
Slot value: $685,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #149. Prospects Live: #172.
Devin Saltiban is a split-camp prospect due to his track record. Not much of a prospect before the season, a strong senior season pushed him up boards and he came stateside to the MLB Draft Combine and MLB Draft League to get more exposure against advanced pitching. He held his own, slashing .262/.354/.405 with a pair of home runs and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games in the league, leading the Phillies to be comfortable enough to take him in the third round. Though undersized at 5'10", Saltiban stands out for his physicality and athleticism, with the ability to generate big bat speed and potentially above average power from the right side. That eleven game run through Draft League represents the majority of his exposure to higher level pitching, so how his bat plays in pro ball is still a question, one the Phillies are confidently rolling the dice on. Drafted as a shortstop, Saltiban has mostly played the outfield to this point. As an outfielder, he's a good runner that has a shot to stick in center field with further refinement and the right kind of physical development, and at worst looks like an average corner outfielder if he slows down. The Phillies will see how that skill set works on the infield, where his innate body control and athleticism could make him an interesting candidate to stick. It's a real boom or bust pick for Philadelphia, who are plucking him away from a hometown commitment to the University of Hawaii.

4-130: OF TayShaun Walton, IMG Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: $501,600. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #168. Baseball America: #262. Prospects Live: #236.
The Phillies made it three straight prep bats with TayShaun Walton, like Devin Saltiban a powerful, athletic outfielder who wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit. Unlike Saltiban, who played way off the beaten path in Hawaii and was hard to get eyes on, Walton played on a loaded IMG Academy squad alongside two of the top 103 prospects in the country by my list, Cameron Smith and Zion Rose. He's bigger than Saltiban, standing 6'3" with plenty of present strength and physicality. The swing is more geared for line drives than fly balls right now, but he already puts up high exit velocities and it's easy to dream on more power as he learns to elevate the ball more. He made a lot of contact and controlled the zone well against strong Florida high school competition this spring, which should help him make the swing adjustment without too much of an issue. More known for his bat than his glove, the southern Virginia native is an above average runner that plays average outfield defense, with left field his most likely long term destination. As a right handed hitter with a left field profile, pressure will be on his bat to develop, but the upside is very high here. He is committed to the University of Miami.

6-193: RHP George Klassen, Minnesota {video}
Slot value: $282,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($17,100 above slot value).
My rank: #172. MLB Pipeline: #190. Baseball America: #217. Prospects Live: #204.
In George Klassen, the Phillies are getting one of the most electric arms in the class. That said, the lightning in his right arm is yet to manifest into results. Tommy John kept him off the mound during his true freshman season in 2021, then in 2022 he either walked or hit 21 of the 50 batters he faced (42%) and finished with a 14.09 ERA. He cleaned things up a little in 2023 and actually earned his way to a rotation spot, where he pitched to an unremarkable 5.72 ERA and a 49/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. The numbers, of course, are nothing to write home about, but the stuff is. Klassen sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and has run it as high as 102 in short stints, giving him some of the best velocity in the entire country. While the pitch can show some riding life in short stints, it's more of a running fastball over longer outings. He has flashed plus with his hard slider that reaches the upper 80's, and this spring has shown more of a curveball, cutter, and changeup than in the past, though the changeup lags behind the rest of the arsenal. His stuff has looked better in relief than it does over longer starts, when it gets inconsistent and can flatten out. Additionally, the Wisconsin native has well below average command, with his 17.9% walk rate this spring actually showing a dramatic improvement from 2022, when he had absolutely no feel for where the ball was going. At this point, he has an idea, but that's where we're at, an idea. He has cleaned up his delivery a bit this spring but it still features considerable head whack, and overall it's almost certainly a relief profile. Klassen has some similarities to so-far-successful Phillies 2021 fifth rounder Griff McGarry, though McGarry's fastball has better shape profile and he had a few great starts down the stretch during his draft season, which Klassen did not. I'm interested to see how Klassen's stuff eats when he's pushed back to the bullpen.

7-223: RHP Jake Eddington, Missouri State {video}
Slot value: $222,900. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($2,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #216. Prospects Live: #286.
Jake Eddington spent his freshman season at Alabama, then missed the 2022 season with an injury and transferred back to his home state in 2023. He was up and down in his lone season at Missouri State, posting a 4.20 ERA and a 59/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings, including gems against Illinois State and Murray State and ugly starts against Bradley and Indiana State. Eddington sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with average movement. He stands out most for a potentially plus slider with deep two-plane bite that missed a ton of bats in 2023. He also shows a changeup, but it's a third pitch. The 6'2" righty native struggled to throw strikes in 2023 and often found himself behind in the count, walking 15.6% of his opponents, but he has a loose, athletic delivery and could conceivably creep closer to average command as the Phillies smooth him out. Eddington will likely move to the bullpen and let his fastball/slider combination eat, though the Phillies may initially run the southern Missouri native out as a starter. Though he's a redshirt sophomore, he's very old for the class and turned 22 back in April.

10-313: RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $164,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #191. Baseball America: #201. Prospects Live: #184.
Back in the summer of 2019, Cam Brown was one of the most dominant arms on the high school showcase circuit and had pushed his way into second round consideration. However, he didn't look quite right during his brief senior season before the COVID shutdown and made it to campus at TCU. There, he has continued to tantalize with big league stuff but has struggled to string together any kind of consistency, falling to the Phillies in the tenth round here. My eighth ranked prospect in the Big 12 heading into the 2023 season, he entered the season with a lot to prove but wound up showing more of the same, posting a 5.20 ERA and a 62/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings. It was nice to see him improve his strikeout rate from 20.6% to 24.4%, though his walk rate also jumped from 13.0% to 15.7%. Brown sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, regularly touching 97 and holding his velocity consistently. His best pitch is an above average slider in the mid 80's that functions as his primary out pitch, while his firm changeup is a third pitch at this point. The 6'3" righty is sturdily built and looks like he can handle 200 innings in the majors, but he struggles to repeat his delivery, which can get stiff, and is prone to regular bouts of below average command. Unless the Phillies can smooth something out in that regard, he likely ends up a reliever, where he may approach triple digits and can lean hard on his slider. The talent is certainly there, though, and it's not out of the question that the Phillies could find a way to keep him in the rotation.

11-343: C Kehden Hettiger, Sierra Canyon HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #177. Baseball America: #322. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Phillies went way over slot in the eleventh round, giving Kehden Hettiger fifth round money to sign away from an Oregon commitment. Hettiger is physically imposing at a filled-out 6'2", which is befitting of a prospect that is very old for a high school senior, having turned 19 back in May. A switch hitter, he has significant raw power that plays better from the left side, though he's not elevating the ball consistently yet. The swing is long with some moving parts, including a hitch in his load, but he performed well this spring regardless and generally takes good at bats with strong pitch selection. Defensively, he shows an above average arm behind the plate but will need significant work on his glove in order to remain a catcher as he moves up the ladder. In this case, the Phillies are buying into the Los Angeles native's power and feel to hit and hoping the finer aspects of his game follow along, especially given the spotty track record of high school catchers.

Undrafted: OF Keaton Anthony, Iowa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #326. Prospects Live: #372.
Keaton Anthony has a chance to be one of the better undrafted free agent signings in the class, though it should be noted that he was suspended at the end of the season as part of the investigation into gambling accusations against the Iowa baseball program. Anthony got just one at bat as a freshman, but has absolutely raked over the past two seasons for a combined .373/.477/.688 slash line and 23 home runs in 96 games. Additionally, he dramatically cut his strikeout rate from 16.4% as a sophomore to 11.1% as a junior. Here, the Phillies are purely buying the bat. Built like a slugger at 6'4", he has plus raw power to all fields and has shown the ability to tap it in games for two years now. His swing can get a bit grooved, but he did a great job of making contact in 2023 even against the stronger arms in the Big Ten, though the B1G is admittedly not quite the level of competition of the SEC or ACC. Anthony is a non-defender, mostly playing DH at Iowa and occasionally seeing time on the mound, in fact throwing twenty innings for the Hawkeyes this spring with a 4.95 ERA. The Phillies may try him at first base, left field, or right field, where his arm strength will hopefully make up for his lack of speed.

2023 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12 Conference

2022 draftees: 47. Top school: Oklahoma (11)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/18/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-7, Cubs: RHP Cade Horton (Oklahoma)
1-12, Tigers: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech)
CBA-37, Guardians: RHP Justin Campbell (Oklahoma State)
2-43, Diamondbacks: 1B Ivan Melendez (Texas)
2-45, Nationals: LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma)
2-51, Tigers: SS Peyton Graham (Oklahoma)

2022 was a banner year draft-wise for the Big 12, which crushed 2021's total of 38 players drafted by nine. The two Oklahoma schools alone combined for twenty draftees, including four of the first 51 picks, and the the University of Oklahoma led all schools nationwide with eleven draftees. This year, Oklahoma State will lead the way at least early on after placing four names in the top nine prospects heading into the season, certainly aided by the return of Nolan McLean, the highest drafted player a year ago to go unsigned. Let's take a look at those top ten draft prospects in the Big 12.

1. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/22/2002. Hometown: West Jordan, UT.
2022: 13 HR, .314/.454/.576, 10 SB, 40/55 K/BB in 59 games.
One of the most consistent hitters in the Big 12 over the past couple seasons is finally draft eligible, and scouts couldn't be more excited. Brayden Taylor needed zero time to adjust to the college game, immediately hitting his way into the TCU starting lineup as a freshman and slashing .319/.450/.574 with 25 home runs and far more walks (104) than strikeouts (86) in 117 games so far. He had a chance to build his stock further against elite competition this summer, but didn't make much impact with the Collegiate National Team and hit a solid if unspectacular .269/.361/.385 with two home runs in 26 games in the Cape Cod League. Taylor stands out for an extremely professional approach at the plate, which is why he was able to adjust to Big 12 pitching so easily and also why he rarely slumps. He rarely ever chases out of the zone and won't swing through many hittable pitches either, and only gets into minor strikeout trouble because he tends to work deep counts. The Salt Lake City-area product has a very loose, whippy barrel that remains long through the zone, helping him work to all fields effectively while further limiting that swing and miss. There is solid power in the tank, with the ability to turn on balls and send them out consistently to the pull side. To really make the most of his power potential, he'll want to tack on additional strength to his skinny 6'1" frame, which would help that power play better to all fields and really push him into top ten consideration. With a late May birthday that will have him turn 21 less than two months before the draft, he is young for the class and has that much more time to fill out. Furthermore, his swing is more oriented for line drives for now and adding loft may help if he chooses to go that route. Either way, it's at least average power for now combined with a plus hit tool, so 15-20 home runs per year with high on-base percentages are well within reach. Defensively, he has played mostly third base to this point and has looked very solid, so a team bullish on his glove could give him a shot at shortstop. Overall, I see this package as very similar to a left handed Cade Doughty, and I really liked Doughty as a first rounder up until a late season slump last year dropped him to the second compensation round. Taylor has a very good shot at the first round as it stands now, and if he comes out in the spring a little more physical, the top ten picks are a possibility.

2. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 2/23/2002. Hometown: Hanford, CA.
2022 (@ Long Beach State): 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Juaron Watts-Brown is slowly but steadily trending up and up and up. He was originally a Texas Tech commit, but decided to stay in his home state and attend Long Beach State at first. After sitting out his freshman season in 2021, he announced his presence loudly in 2022 and parlayed that into a strong run through the Cape Cod League (3.83 ERA, 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings). Now he'll head to the Big 12 like he originally planned, but he'll move past Lubbock on his way to Stillwater. Watts-Brown is throwing harder and harder, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 96 while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His slider and curveball both have two-plane action, but remain distinct from each other and look like above average pitches, while his changeup provides a fourth average or better pitch. Everything plays up from a pretty ideal release, as he gets down the mound extremely well to create great extension and a lower release point, in turn giving his fastball nice riding life. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound with plenty of projection remaining, making for a very fun ball of clay for Josh Holliday's staff and eventually a pro staff to play with. For now, the command is fringe-average and could use some improvement, as he can yank his front side at times and lose his release point. It's nothing major and I don't expect it to hold back his profile, which looks to fit somewhere in the second round range for now but which could easily leap into the first round if he takes well to the Big 12. I'm personally a believer which is why I rank him as the best pitching prospect in the conference.

3. RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 215 lbs. Born 7/11/2002. Hometown: Houston, TX.
2022: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14/3 K/BB in 11 innings.
One of the more highly regarded recruits to reach campus following the 2020 draft, Tanner Witt jumped straight into a prominent role in the Longhorn bullpen as a true freshman in 2021 and put up a 3.16 ERA and a 73/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings. Transitioning into the rotation in 2022, he looked very sharp in starts against Rice and Alabama to start the season, pitching his way into top ten consideration for 2023, but went down with Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since. The surgery will keep him out for at least the early part of 2023, though it's not out of the question that he could return later in the season and reclaim some of that draft stock. Even without much track record as a starter, it's hard not to like Witt. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96-97 at his best, with natural riding action above what most others are capable of. Interestingly, the 6'5" righty throws from an extremely high release point that puts steep downhill angle on the ball, so those two characteristics counteract each other a little bit. Witt drops in a big 12-6 curveball that he has feel to land for strikes, though it can catch too much of the plate at times and get hit. He also shows an average slider and an above average changeup, giving him a full arsenal of four average or better pitches. The Houston native is very advanced for his age, repeating his delivery well and showing solid command of his four pitch mix, looking every bit like a starting pitcher. He does have an interesting quirk in his delivery where he pulls the ball out of his glove briefly at the top of his leg lift, then taps it back in before bringing out for real. This gives hitters an extra look at his grip, which could become a problem with more seasoned pro hitters, but it's also not a difficult fix. The injury does put a dent in his stock simply because he doesn't get to show what he's capable of, but Witt is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until the third day of the draft, so he's playing with a little bit of house money there. He's also extremely projectable and looks durable aside from the elbow surgery, which at this point is pretty inevitable for any pitcher. Witt looks like a high probability mid-rotation starter.

4. SS Nick Goodwin, Kansas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/6/2001. Hometown: Overland Park, KS.
2022: 11 HR, .255/.354/.525, 6 SB, 57/30 K/BB in 57 games.
Nick Goodwin may not have a carrying tool, but he does a lot well and has a chance to be a real breakout performer in 2023 after holding down a very solid .267/.354/.502 slash line over two years at Kansas State so far. In addition to being a dependable cog for the Wildcats, he showed similarly well in the Cape Cod League with a .267/.342/.466 line, six homers, and a 42/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He's not huge, but he taps average power to all fields with a quick right handed swing that puts good loft on the ball and effectively maximizes his strength. There is some swing and miss, as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.3% as a freshman to 23.1% as a sophomore and clocked in at 22.8% on the Cape, but he has consistently performed well against high level pitching both in the Big 12 and on the Cape so it's not a huge concern. It would be nice though if he could at least cut that down below 20% in 2022, and if he could get it down around 15-16% or so while maintaining his power, this suddenly goes from a third round profile to something much more interesting. Defensively, he has handled shortstop at Kansas State well and will get a chance to play there in pro ball, though he may not be quite explosive enough to make it work long term and could fit better at second or third base. Overall, there is upside of a 15-20 home run infield bat with decent on-base percentages if he cuts down his strikeouts a little, and he'd fit well as a utility infielder even if he does continue to strikeout out at a moderate rate.

5. 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 6/11/2002. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2022: 11 HR, .295/.413/.519, 2 SB, 58/34 K/BB in 54 games.
If you watched the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys, it would have been hard not to notice Roc Riggio. The 5'9" showman with long hair dyed bright blond plays with as much energy as anybody on the field, the epitome of a new-school, let-the-kids-play electric factory. Having earned considerable draft interest out of his Los Angeles-area high school in 2021, he reached campus in Stillwater and immediately hit his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, acting as a catalyst for one of the best lineups in the country with his bat flips and all-out style of play. Riggio continued on to the Cape Cod League over the summer but couldn't quite match his big freshman season, slashing just .200/.258/.339 with three home runs and a 37/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. The profile here is carried by the bat, as he takes big hacks from the left side to tap above average power despite his small frame. He does a good job of getting loft under ball when it's down in the zone while keeping a more level swing up in the zone, boding well for both his future power production and contact ability, though for now he's still adjusting to college level pitching and has some swing and miss in his game. He struck out 22.4% of the time for Oklahoma State this spring then ran a 29.6% K rate on the Cape, so bringing that down will be high on the priority list. Right now he profiles for 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages if he can. Riggio is not the greatest athlete and will have to work to remain at second base, with the outfield a real possibility if he gets pushed by a better defender in pro ball, so his value will rely on his ability to hit pro pitching. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he's younger than most of the juniors he'll compete against for draft position and turns 21 a month before the draft.

6. SS Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 9/14/2001. Hometown: Springdale, AR.
2022: 4 HR, .316/.378/.441, 5 SB, 38/21 K/BB in 64 games.
Roc Riggio may be the most exciting player on the Oklahoma State roster, but the guy playing right across the bag from him is the school's flashiest defender. Springy and athletic, Marcus Brown moves very well around the dirt and makes it look easy out there with an above average arm. That glove will be the carrying tool in his profile, but he can swing it a little bit too. Employing a loose left handed hack that gets the barrel long through the zone and produces plenty of line drive contact, he puts nearly everything in play and struck out just 13.7% of the time in 2022, easily the lowest mark on this list. A career .323/.388/.436 hitter in Stillwater, like Riggio he struggled to make an impact on the Cape and slashed just .233/.315/.295 in 44 games there. His 20% strikeout rate was much lower than Riggio's 29.6%, but still elevated above his number with the Cowboys as he struggled to find gaps and fences with wood bats. Still, I remain fairly optimistic on the bat especially given that his glove will buy it plenty of time to develop. Though he's undersized at 5'11", he naturally whips the barrel through the zone with authority and getting even a little bit stronger could help him threaten for double digit home run totals in pro ball. He'll always make plenty of contact and keep defenses on their toes, though the minimal swing and miss in his game to date does keep his walk rates down – 7.6% at OSU and 6.1% on the Cape.

7. OF Elijah Nuñez, Texas Christian.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 12/6/2001. Hometown: Arlington, TX.
2022: 1 HR, .281/.435/.368, 31 SB, 48/58 K/BB in 60 games.
Elijah Nuñez brings an old school profile to the ballpark here, so he stands in contrast to many other players scouts will be looking at. A glove-first guy like Marcus Brown, he will certainly stick in center field with plenty of speed and exceptional feel for the position, immediately providing a strong baseline of value. It's easier to carry a profile with your glove if you catch or play a mean shortstop like Brown, but Nuñez gets it done in center field with the best of them. He's also a very patient hitter at the plate that doesn't swing and miss much (16.7% strikeout rate) and draws a ton of walks. In fact his 58 free passes tied for eighth in the nation last year, a feat made even more impressive when you consider he was younger than all seven players ahead of him as well as the guy tied with him, and also the fact that he did so in fewer games than all but one player in that group. When he does swing at the ball, he's a gap to gap line drive hitter that doesn't try to do too much, with below average power that has manifested in just two home runs in 114 career games for the Horned Frogs. While the glove and legs give his profile plenty of baseline value, his offensive profile will be reliant on keeping those on-base percentages high because he likely won't threaten for double digit home runs. To me, it's a pretty clear fourth outfield profile but one that has a chance to be extremely valuable.

8. RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Born 10/15/2001. Hometown: Flower Mound, TX.
2022: 5-2, 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 49/31 K/BB in 53 innings.
Cam Brown is very much an enigma at this point. One of the stars of the showcase circuit in the summer of 2019, he was pitching his way into the top two rounds but did not look like himself during his COVID-shortened senior spring in 2020. That led him to campus at TCU, where he barely pitched as a freshman and had an up and down sophomore season in which he did not miss nearly as many bats as hoped. Taking his talents to the Cape Cod League over the summer, he pitched to mixed results once more and allowed seven runs in nine innings with an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio. At his best, Brown looks like a bona fide impact starting pitcher, running his fastball into the upper 90's and flashing above average with his entire arsenal of secondaries, consisting of a slider, curve, and changeup. It's really loud stuff from a big league body, but he's just never been able to put it all together. The delivery can get stiff and he struggles to command it all, often falling behind in the count and leaving pitches over the plate to get hit or giving up free passes. I'm worried that the fastball may play a bit true out of his hand and play below its low to mid 90's velocity, and inconsistent secondaries led to just a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. The DFW native could benefit from a pro development program to help him find more deception and perhaps improve his command a tick, in which case he really could pull it all together and become a mid-rotation starter in the majors. At some point, though, you're going to want to see some results and he just hasn't missed enough bats in the Big 12 yet to feel comfortable projecting him in that role. But that's why you get three years in college, right?

9. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Garner, NC.
2022: 19 HR, .285/.397/.595, 2 SB, 107/37 K/BB in 64 games.
2022: 2-1, 5.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 39/13 K/BB in 25.1 innings.
Nolan McLean will rank as the ninth best prospect in the Big 12 for the second year in a row after the Orioles failed to meet his signing bonus demands at the 81st overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted player to go unsigned. Eligible as a sophomore last year, he'll still be close to age appropriate this year and will turn 22 just after the draft, making him just a couple months older than Nick Goodwin, Marcus Brown, and Cam Brown. A true two-way player, he was one of three Cowboys to appear in all 64 games last year (along with #6 prospect Marcus Brown) and also made 23 appearances on the mound, so scouts have seen him plenty to this point. At the plate, McLean stands out for plus-plus raw power as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run that ranks among the best in the country. He's big and strong at 6'3" with long arms that naturally channel that strength into leverage and bat speed, but he has been extremely inconsistent to this point thanks in large part to a well below average hit tool. In fact, his 107 strikeouts this past season set an all time Division I record, as he struggles to adjust his grooved swing to correct for mistakes in pitch/location identification. The power is absolutely tantalizing, but when you strike out 36.9% (!) of the time, it's hard to get scouts to buy in. Going back to school will give him a chance to at least bring that number down below 30% and ideally closer to 25%, where scouts could slap a 40 grade on his hit tool and call it a risk worth taking. The Orioles actually drafted him as a pitcher this past season, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a larger role for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys lost their top seven arms by innings pitched to the draft, the transfer portal, or graduation. He can touch the upper 90's in short stints and is gradually improving his feel for spin with both a curveball and slider in hand, together helping him miss enough bats to run a very strong 35.1% strikeout rate. Below average command, in addition to his duties at third base, have kept him in the bullpen so far, but it would be interesting to see if Josh Holliday and co. give him a shot in the rotation this spring with so many spots opening up. If he takes another step forward with that command, suddenly the arm strength and feel for spin become really interesting here.

10. LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/13/2002. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 7-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
Once Tanner Witt gets healthy, the 2023 Texas rotation will have a very similar feel draft-wise to the 2021 rotation. Witt, like Ty Madden, is a potential first rounder from Houston with a power fastball from a high slot and strong command, while Lucas Gordon, like Pete Hansen, is a soft tossing command/control lefty from California. Funny how that works out sometimes. Gordon is coming off a very strong sophomore season in Austin where he formed a strong one-two punch with Hansen, forcing his way into draft conversations by his performance even if the stuff doesn't quite match up yet. He sits around 90 with his fastball and can get up to about 94 at best with some run, so it's an average pitch. Gordon has strong feel for both his sweepy slider and slurvy curveball, but they lack the power and bite you look for in a swing and miss secondary offering. His best pitch is a plus changeup with excellent fading action, rounding out a full big league arsenal. The 6'1" lefty repeats his delivery very well with above average command of both his fastball and his offspeeds, showing the ability to spot everything to both sides of the plate, and he ran a very respectable 7.2% walk rate as a sophomore. The stuff can get hit hard when he leaves it up and over the plate, and in aggregate he didn't miss many bats with just a 21.2% strikeout rate. Scouts know that Gordon can pound the strike zone and control at bats, so in 2023 they'll look for the Los Angeles product to show a little more velocity on his fastball and/or power on his breaking balls to help grow his margin for error a little bit. It's a back-end starter profile if he can.

Honorable Mention: LHP Ben Hampton, West Virginia.
Ben Hampton was the first player off the list, but I wanted to give him his due after an incredible run through the Cape Cod League. He was draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but didn't get much interest after posting a 4.66 ERA and a 90/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings at West Virginia, but reached another level on the Cape with a 2.27 ERA and a 51/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings. The fastball velocity just isn't there yet, parking in the upper 80's and rarely scratching 90, but he hides it very well and gets good ride on it, making it something of an invisiball. His primary offspeed pitch is a sweepy slider with depth that he locates well, and everything plays up because he mixes and matches his stuff to keep hitters off balance. There is not much projection remaining in his stocky 6'1" frame so there is no guarantee he ever consistently reaches the low 90's, where the profile would be much more attractive. Still, there are some similarities to Monmouth's Trey Dombroski a year ago, who went in the fourth round to the Astros, even if Hampton is a good four inches shorter. Despite the exceptional numbers on the Cape, Hampton was up and down in conference play last year (6.15 ERA, 46/17 K/BB in 41 IP) and has never had success against high level competition before this summer. Throw in that he's old for the class, turning 22 a few weeks after the draft, and it's hard to know exactly what to make of the soft tossing Wisconsinite. 

2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Pitchers

Personally, I love watching Friday night duels in college baseball, and the shortened 2020 draft means we'll have more pitching talent heading to school than ever before. Carson Montgomery headlines the incoming freshman class as a fringe-first rounder who wanted to head to Florida State, while Miami managed to bring on not one but two of the top four, at least by my pre-draft rankings. Other big programs like Vanderbilt, LSU, and Texas jumped on there, while San Diego State lost Ricky Tiedemann when he decided to switch it up to Long Beach Community College, where he'll be draft-eligible again in 2021. Personally, my two "sleeper" picks from this list are Ryan Hagenow and and Nick Griffin, the latter of which reminds me of Asa Lacy as a high schooler.

1. RHP Carson Montgomery (my draft rank: 39)
Windermere HS [FL] -> Florida State
The top player on my rankings to go undrafted, Carson Montgomery is set to jump into a Florida State rotation that lost CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays, second round) and Shane Drohan (Red Sox, fifth round) as well as Antonio Velez (Marlins, undrafted) out of the bullpen. Van Eyk and Drohan were big draft names in their own right out of high school in 2017, ranking 107th and 118th on my draft list that year, so bringing on blue chip recruits is nothing new for FSU. Montgomery is a 6'2" right hander with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and his extremely loose right arm makes him even more projectable. For now, he has a low 90's fastball that he can run up to 96, and he's working on maintaining that velocity a little better. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent slider that can flash plus at its best, and he throws a sneaky good changeup that he doesn't use as often. His command is fairly inconsistent as well, but he's very young for an incoming freshman and won't even turn 18 until August. Montgomery might need a little bit of refinement throughout his freshman year but I imagine that by the time he's a sophomore, he'll be a true ace for the Seminoles. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Ryan Hagenow (my draft rank: 52)
Farragut HS [TN] -> Kentucky
I took a bit of a gamble on Ryan Hagenow, who ranked 52nd on my list but 68th on MLB Pipeline and 194th on Baseball America. I really like his upside though, and I have a feeling he's going to spend his three years in Lexington and turn into a monster. He's an uber-projectable 6'5" righty out of the Knoxville area who has a lot to work on, but I think he has a lot going for him as well. His fastball velocity isn't quite there yet, sitting around 90 for the most part and topping out around 93, but his loose arm puts nice movement on the pitch and portends to future velocity gains. His slider is average for now, flattening out at times but also showing some nice depth down in the zone when he gets it right. Adding some power and consistency in college could make it a plus pitch. To me, his best pitch right now is his changeup, with great fading action to the arm side. He does a decent job of throwing strikes, but he needs to smoothen out his delivery a little bit, which I believe he will. I love the way his arms and legs work in his delivery and he could easily add 20-30 pounds at school, which should help him add power to his fastball and slider. In a best case scenario, I could really see him coming out for the 2023 draft with three plus pitches and a starter's frame, which would easily put him in the first round. There's a long way to go, and I don't think he'll slot directly into Kentucky's weekend rotation right away, but he is relatively young for the class with a June birthday and I have a good feeling about him. Pre-draft profile here.

3. RHP Victor Mederos (my draft rank: 57)
Westminster Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami did a fantastic job of holding its talented recruiting class together, and it's a good thing because they lost their entire weekend rotation in Slade Cecconi (Diamondbacks, comp round), Chris McMahon (Rockies, second round), and Brian Van Belle (Red Sox, undrafted), plus reliever Tyler Keysor (Reds, undrafted). Headlining the incoming recruits, at least as far as my list goes, is Victor Mederos, a Cuban-born pitcher who fled the country with his mother and brother when he was six years old and settled in Miami. The big 6'4" righty has as strong an arm as anyone in this class, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball he can run up to 96. He has two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider that can flash plus, with the former showing great depth and power at times and the latter coming in with harder velocity. There is a solid changeup as well, and Mederos aggressively attacks hitters with all four, though the two breaking balls can blend into each other at times. That aggressiveness can hurt him more than it helps him at times, with a tendency to overthrow and lose his arm slot and therefore strike zone. He does have the innate strike throwing ability to be successful in that area, and all he really needs to do is stay within himself more. Miami is getting a really exciting, high-octane arm who could develop into an impact starter, though with a June birthday that makes him old for the class, he'll be eligible again for the 2022 draft as a sophomore. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Alejandro Rosario (my draft rank: 67)
Miami Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Joining Mederos in that future Hurricanes rotation will be fellow Miami native Alejandro Rosario, though he's a very different pitcher. While Mederos is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Rosario is a very slim 6'1" and 165 pounds. He lives off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's, has registered as high as 99, and gets good running action to the arm side. His secondary pitches are more of a work in progress, with a slider and a splitter that he's still working to differentiate. Believe it or not, the splitter is actually ahead of the slider, an above average pitch at its best, and he needs to refine his slider to look less like his splitter, not the other way around. Because of his slight frame and unrefined arsenal, he faces significant reliever questions in pro ball, though I think he'll definitely be able to start at least in college. Maybe not right off the bat, as I think Mederos has a better shot to crack the rotation as a freshman than Rosario does, but he's athletic, repeats his delivery well, and throws enough strikes to make it work. Throw in the easy gas and the splitter/slider thing, and he'll miss tons of bats in the ACC. During his time in Miami, if he can refine those secondary pitches and perhaps bulk up a little bit, his electric right arm could be really enticing for teams early in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP/SS/QB Cade Horton (my draft rank: 70)
Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
A quarterback/baseball player heading to Oklahoma? Cade Horton is harkening back to Kyler Murray with that combination, but he's not quite the prospect Murray was in either sport. Horton won't have to go far for school, staying in his hometown of Norman, just south of Oklahoma City. Not only his he a two-sport star, but he's actually set to play both ways on the diamond as well. Most scouts prefer him as a pitcher, and I'd have to agree with that. Horton is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding an above average slider that could end up a plus pitch if he adds some power to it. As with most high school pitchers, his changeup requires some imagination, but it's there. As you might expect from a quarterback, he's a good athlete with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. There is a lot of baseline ability there to project on, and once (if) he gives up hitting and quarterbacking, he could take some big steps forward. Oklahoma lost its entire weekend rotation in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A's, fourth round), plus reliever Zack Matthews (Astros, undrafted), so Horton should have every chance to jump into the rotation from day one. Pre-draft profile here.

6. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (my draft rank: 75)
Lakewood HS [CA] -> San Diego State Long Beach CC
Ricky Tiedemann was previously committed to pitch at San Diego State, but after effectively pricing himself out of the draft, he'll head to Long Beach Community College to be eligible right away for the 2021 draft. Personally, I think this could pay off big time for the Los Angeles-area native. Tiedemann has an extremely projectable, extremely athletic 6'4" frame that screams future projection. He has a really loose right arm and an easy, natural operation as well, giving his coaches at LBCC a lot to work with. For now, the fastball sits around 90, but I could easily see him adding significant velocity in the future, perhaps even in his freshman year at LBCC. His changeup is his best pitch for now with great fading action, giving him a reliable offspeed. He has a slider, but it's below average at this point and will need significant refinement. It's really easy to envision Tiedemann getting a lot, a lot better, so even marginal improvement in 2021 could seriously help his draft stock. If he adds a tick or two to his fastball or refines that slider to an average or above average pitch, that should move him into top 50 consideration, and doing both could make him a first rounder. Another plus in Tiedemann's profile is his age, because like Carson Montgomery, he won't turn 18 until August, making him the age of a slightly old high school senior by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Pre-draft profile here.

7. RHP Tanner Witt (my draft rank: 87)
Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas
The University of Texas had a recruiting class filled with big draft names, but ultimately saw Carson Tucker (Indians, first round), Jared Jones (Pirates, second round), Jared Kelley (White Sox, second round), and Petey Halpin (Indians, third round) go in the top 100 picks. In losing four huge recruits to the draft, Longhorns fans can take solace in that they got one really good pitcher to price himself out. Like Tiedemann, he's about projectability more than anything else, but there is a lot of present ability too. Witt is a towering 6'6" righty out of Houston with a fastball that sits around 90 for the most part, but this spring he added a tick of velocity and sat in the low 90's, reaching back for as much as 95. While that increased velocity was only present for a short time before the shutdown, it was expected anyways and he has a chance to really tack it on in Austin. His curve has some nice depth to it and is an average to above average pitch at present, but again, it's easy to see him adding power as he fills out, which would make it a plus pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, which are fairly raw for now but which show promise and could develop into above average pitches in time. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving him plenty of starter traits to work on. Witt is very much the kind of pitcher that can show up on campus a lanky freshman and come out a bona fide ace, and he could make my #87 ranking look silly three years from now. Additionally, he's young for the class with a July birthday and will also be hitting at UT, where he could surprise some of us with his raw power. Between Witt and rising sophomore Trey Faltine, the Longhorns have two legitimate two-way prospects, though Faltine did not pitch as a freshman. Pre-draft profile here.

8. RHP Ty Floyd (my draft rank: 98)
Rockmart HS [GA] -> Louisiana State
Only the second player on this list, following Ryan Hagenow (Tennessee -> Kentucky), to leave his home state for college, Ty Floyd takes some imagination to project on. Growing up just past the Atlanta suburbs, Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a really loose arm that can run his fastball up to 95. He sits more in the low 90's during his starts, but he does have a tendency to dip a bit later on. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are both pretty raw, though the curve shows promise with nice shape down in the zone. Really, scouts are projecting on the looseness of Floyd's operation and his innate athleticism more than his present ability, and the LSU coaching staff will have some work to do when he arrives on campus. They're returning most of their pitching staff after only losing Cole Henry (Nationals, second round) to the draft, so Floyd is more likely to be a bullpen arm as a freshman, but once guys like Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux, and AJ Labas presumably get drafted next year, Floyd has a shot to jump into the rotation as a sophomore. By the time he's a junior, if he refines his game into what scouts believe he's capable of, we could have a really exciting arm. There is probably more relief risk than most of the other names on this list, though, and Floyd has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Pre-draft profile here.

9. RHP Cam Brown (my draft rank: 111)
Flower Mound HS [TX] -> Texas Christian
Cam Brown had a great summer that put him firmly in top 50 conversations, and a strong spring could have further moved him up boards into first round consideration. However, his spring moved him in the opposite direction, and he'll make the short drive down I-35W to TCU to try to rebuild his stock. At his best over the summer, Brown showed a low to mid 90's fastball that played up due to some crossfire in his delivery, in addition to an above average slider and a solid changeup. However, this spring, the velocity ticked down closer to 90 and his slider looked like a below average to average pitch, and overall he just didn't look like a natural pitcher. At TCU, he has a chance to prove that his brief spring was just a minor blip, and a strong freshman season in 2021 could be enough to completely erase the bad taste in scouts' mouthes. As a 6'3" righty with a durable frame and three potential above average pitches, he has plenty of starter traits and could emerge a first round pick in 2023. At the same time, he still does have to go out and prove it. Scouts will be watching his Horned Frogs career closely to see his progression, as will I with TCU just down the road in Fort Worth.

10. LHP Mason Miller (my draft rank: 113)
Mitchell HS [FL] -> Florida Gulf Coast
Aside from the community college-bound Ricky Tiedemann, all of the previous names in this class are committed to premium baseball programs like Miami, Florida State, and Louisiana State, but Mason Miller is headed to a smaller program in Florida Gulf Coast. There, he'll hope to follow in the footsteps of fellow lefty Chris Sale, the school's biggest name ever. Miller teamed with Reds competitive balance pick Jackson Miller (no relation) at Mitchell High School just north of Tampa, and while he had a shot to go in the fourth or fifth round based on a really nice projection profile. As a 6'3" lefty, his name was already circled on scouts' lists, and a velocity bump this spring that pushed his fastball to around 90 miles per hour really put him on the map. Aside from being a scout's dream as a 6'3" lefty, his best attribute is a potentially plus curveball that gets really high spin rates and can really bring tremendous bite. It's inconsistent for now as he learns to harness its power, but the potential is there. Lastly, his changeup needs projection and could develop in any number of directions. Miller comes from a low three quarters arm slot that puts some nice angle on the ball, but he can yank the ball sometimes and it also makes it tougher for him to stay on top of his big curveball. At FGCU, he'll need to focus on adding more velocity, which should come naturally given his frame, as well as getting more consistent with those secondary pitches. He has a chance to crack the Eagles' rotation right out of the gate, and his game could grow pretty steadily during his time in Fort Myers.

11. LHP Nick Griffin (my draft rank: 119)
Monticello HS [AR] -> Arkansas
As with Texas, Arkansas' fantastic recruiting class got looted during the draft with Masyn Winn (Cardinals, second round), Markevian Hence (Cardinals, competitive balance round), and David Calabrese (Angels, third round) signing pro contracts. Nick Griffin (Monticello) will join fellow small town Arkansan Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier) as major 2020 draft prospects to head to Fayetteville, where he will look to develop into a star. Personally, he reminds me of another name as a high schooler, and Razorbacks fans will really like this one: Asa Lacy. I really, really liked Lacy coming out of high school in Texas in 2017 (and if you read my work, you're probably sick of me bragging about it), and I feel the same way about Griffin. He's a 6'4" lefty with a really loose, really athletic delivery that just screams projection. For now, his fastball sits around 90 but can bump up to 94 at times, and he figures to continuously add velocity as he fills out that frame. There is a slider as well that can be an above average pitch at times, and he adds a curveball and changeup that are pretty nascent. Everything about his game is pretty raw, but I think the Arkansas coaching staff is getting something really exciting to work with. In addition to the projectable frame, loose arm, and great body for pitching, he's relatively young for the class with a June birthday, and he's trending in the right direction. Arkansas is so loaded with talent that he probably won't crack the rotation right away, but he has a chance to follow an Asa Lacy-like rise to stardom. How's that for a prospect?

12. RHP Patrick Reilly (my draft rank: 128)
Christian Brothers HS [NJ] -> Vanderbilt
How would this list be complete without a Vanderbilt arm? In each of the past two seasons, they've landed massive recruits on the mound in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and while they lost their top two incoming hitters this year in Robert Hassell (Padres, first round) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets, first round), they did land their top pitcher in Patrick Reilly. A New Jersey private school product like Leiter, Reilly has much less of a track record than his Garden State counterpart, instead jumping onto the map with a huge showing at the WWBA tournament over the fall. In his one start there, his previously fringy fastball sat easily in the low to mid 90's and topped out at 96, while he showed a true power curve that looked plus at its best. Reilly packs a ton of strength into his 6'4" frame that enabled his velocity gains, though aside from that exciting start in the fall, scouts hadn't seen enough of him at the increased velocity to buy him out of that Vanderbilt commitment. It will be really tough to work into that absolutely loaded rotation, especially as a freshman, but once Rocker and Leiter go in the top five picks in 2021, he'll likely have his shot. At Vanderbilt, competing for innings can be just as tough as proving yourself to evaluators, but there is no better place to go and refine his game.

Others (by pre-draft rank):
133. RHP Jason Savacool, Baker HS [NY] -> Maryland
136. LHP Timmy Manning, Cardinal Gibbons HS [FL] -> Florida
157. RHP TJ Nichols, Oakmont HS [CA] -> Arizona
160. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Counterpane HS [GA] -> Georgia Tech
Unranked: RHP Max Rajcic, Orange Lutheran HS [CA] -> UCLA