2022 draftees: 47. Top school: Oklahoma (11)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/18/2021)
Top 2022 draftees:
1-7, Cubs: RHP Cade Horton (Oklahoma)
1-12, Tigers: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech)
CBA-37, Guardians: RHP Justin Campbell (Oklahoma State)
2-43, Diamondbacks: 1B Ivan Melendez (Texas)
2-45, Nationals: LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma)
2-51, Tigers: SS Peyton Graham (Oklahoma)
1-7, Cubs: RHP Cade Horton (Oklahoma)
1-12, Tigers: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech)
CBA-37, Guardians: RHP Justin Campbell (Oklahoma State)
2-43, Diamondbacks: 1B Ivan Melendez (Texas)
2-45, Nationals: LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma)
2-51, Tigers: SS Peyton Graham (Oklahoma)
2022 was a banner year draft-wise for the Big 12, which crushed 2021's total of 38 players drafted by nine. The two Oklahoma schools alone combined for twenty draftees, including four of the first 51 picks, and the the University of Oklahoma led all schools nationwide with eleven draftees. This year, Oklahoma State will lead the way at least early on after placing four names in the top nine prospects heading into the season, certainly aided by the return of Nolan McLean, the highest drafted player a year ago to go unsigned. Let's take a look at those top ten draft prospects in the Big 12.
1. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/22/2002. Hometown: West Jordan, UT.
2022: 13 HR, .314/.454/.576, 10 SB, 40/55 K/BB in 59 games.
One of the most consistent hitters in the Big 12 over the past couple seasons is finally draft eligible, and scouts couldn't be more excited. Brayden Taylor needed zero time to adjust to the college game, immediately hitting his way into the TCU starting lineup as a freshman and slashing .319/.450/.574 with 25 home runs and far more walks (104) than strikeouts (86) in 117 games so far. He had a chance to build his stock further against elite competition this summer, but didn't make much impact with the Collegiate National Team and hit a solid if unspectacular .269/.361/.385 with two home runs in 26 games in the Cape Cod League. Taylor stands out for an extremely professional approach at the plate, which is why he was able to adjust to Big 12 pitching so easily and also why he rarely slumps. He rarely ever chases out of the zone and won't swing through many hittable pitches either, and only gets into minor strikeout trouble because he tends to work deep counts. The Salt Lake City-area product has a very loose, whippy barrel that remains long through the zone, helping him work to all fields effectively while further limiting that swing and miss. There is solid power in the tank, with the ability to turn on balls and send them out consistently to the pull side. To really make the most of his power potential, he'll want to tack on additional strength to his skinny 6'1" frame, which would help that power play better to all fields and really push him into top ten consideration. With a late May birthday that will have him turn 21 less than two months before the draft, he is young for the class and has that much more time to fill out. Furthermore, his swing is more oriented for line drives for now and adding loft may help if he chooses to go that route. Either way, it's at least average power for now combined with a plus hit tool, so 15-20 home runs per year with high on-base percentages are well within reach. Defensively, he has played mostly third base to this point and has looked very solid, so a team bullish on his glove could give him a shot at shortstop. Overall, I see this package as very similar to a left handed Cade Doughty, and I really liked Doughty as a first rounder up until a late season slump last year dropped him to the second compensation round. Taylor has a very good shot at the first round as it stands now, and if he comes out in the spring a little more physical, the top ten picks are a possibility.
2022: 13 HR, .314/.454/.576, 10 SB, 40/55 K/BB in 59 games.
One of the most consistent hitters in the Big 12 over the past couple seasons is finally draft eligible, and scouts couldn't be more excited. Brayden Taylor needed zero time to adjust to the college game, immediately hitting his way into the TCU starting lineup as a freshman and slashing .319/.450/.574 with 25 home runs and far more walks (104) than strikeouts (86) in 117 games so far. He had a chance to build his stock further against elite competition this summer, but didn't make much impact with the Collegiate National Team and hit a solid if unspectacular .269/.361/.385 with two home runs in 26 games in the Cape Cod League. Taylor stands out for an extremely professional approach at the plate, which is why he was able to adjust to Big 12 pitching so easily and also why he rarely slumps. He rarely ever chases out of the zone and won't swing through many hittable pitches either, and only gets into minor strikeout trouble because he tends to work deep counts. The Salt Lake City-area product has a very loose, whippy barrel that remains long through the zone, helping him work to all fields effectively while further limiting that swing and miss. There is solid power in the tank, with the ability to turn on balls and send them out consistently to the pull side. To really make the most of his power potential, he'll want to tack on additional strength to his skinny 6'1" frame, which would help that power play better to all fields and really push him into top ten consideration. With a late May birthday that will have him turn 21 less than two months before the draft, he is young for the class and has that much more time to fill out. Furthermore, his swing is more oriented for line drives for now and adding loft may help if he chooses to go that route. Either way, it's at least average power for now combined with a plus hit tool, so 15-20 home runs per year with high on-base percentages are well within reach. Defensively, he has played mostly third base to this point and has looked very solid, so a team bullish on his glove could give him a shot at shortstop. Overall, I see this package as very similar to a left handed Cade Doughty, and I really liked Doughty as a first rounder up until a late season slump last year dropped him to the second compensation round. Taylor has a very good shot at the first round as it stands now, and if he comes out in the spring a little more physical, the top ten picks are a possibility.
2. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 2/23/2002. Hometown: Hanford, CA.
2022 (@ Long Beach State): 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Juaron Watts-Brown is slowly but steadily trending up and up and up. He was originally a Texas Tech commit, but decided to stay in his home state and attend Long Beach State at first. After sitting out his freshman season in 2021, he announced his presence loudly in 2022 and parlayed that into a strong run through the Cape Cod League (3.83 ERA, 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings). Now he'll head to the Big 12 like he originally planned, but he'll move past Lubbock on his way to Stillwater. Watts-Brown is throwing harder and harder, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 96 while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His slider and curveball both have two-plane action, but remain distinct from each other and look like above average pitches, while his changeup provides a fourth average or better pitch. Everything plays up from a pretty ideal release, as he gets down the mound extremely well to create great extension and a lower release point, in turn giving his fastball nice riding life. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound with plenty of projection remaining, making for a very fun ball of clay for Josh Holliday's staff and eventually a pro staff to play with. For now, the command is fringe-average and could use some improvement, as he can yank his front side at times and lose his release point. It's nothing major and I don't expect it to hold back his profile, which looks to fit somewhere in the second round range for now but which could easily leap into the first round if he takes well to the Big 12. I'm personally a believer which is why I rank him as the best pitching prospect in the conference.
2022 (@ Long Beach State): 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Juaron Watts-Brown is slowly but steadily trending up and up and up. He was originally a Texas Tech commit, but decided to stay in his home state and attend Long Beach State at first. After sitting out his freshman season in 2021, he announced his presence loudly in 2022 and parlayed that into a strong run through the Cape Cod League (3.83 ERA, 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings). Now he'll head to the Big 12 like he originally planned, but he'll move past Lubbock on his way to Stillwater. Watts-Brown is throwing harder and harder, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 96 while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His slider and curveball both have two-plane action, but remain distinct from each other and look like above average pitches, while his changeup provides a fourth average or better pitch. Everything plays up from a pretty ideal release, as he gets down the mound extremely well to create great extension and a lower release point, in turn giving his fastball nice riding life. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound with plenty of projection remaining, making for a very fun ball of clay for Josh Holliday's staff and eventually a pro staff to play with. For now, the command is fringe-average and could use some improvement, as he can yank his front side at times and lose his release point. It's nothing major and I don't expect it to hold back his profile, which looks to fit somewhere in the second round range for now but which could easily leap into the first round if he takes well to the Big 12. I'm personally a believer which is why I rank him as the best pitching prospect in the conference.
3. RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 215 lbs. Born 7/11/2002. Hometown: Houston, TX.
2022: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14/3 K/BB in 11 innings.
One of the more highly regarded recruits to reach campus following the 2020 draft, Tanner Witt jumped straight into a prominent role in the Longhorn bullpen as a true freshman in 2021 and put up a 3.16 ERA and a 73/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings. Transitioning into the rotation in 2022, he looked very sharp in starts against Rice and Alabama to start the season, pitching his way into top ten consideration for 2023, but went down with Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since. The surgery will keep him out for at least the early part of 2023, though it's not out of the question that he could return later in the season and reclaim some of that draft stock. Even without much track record as a starter, it's hard not to like Witt. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96-97 at his best, with natural riding action above what most others are capable of. Interestingly, the 6'5" righty throws from an extremely high release point that puts steep downhill angle on the ball, so those two characteristics counteract each other a little bit. Witt drops in a big 12-6 curveball that he has feel to land for strikes, though it can catch too much of the plate at times and get hit. He also shows an average slider and an above average changeup, giving him a full arsenal of four average or better pitches. The Houston native is very advanced for his age, repeating his delivery well and showing solid command of his four pitch mix, looking every bit like a starting pitcher. He does have an interesting quirk in his delivery where he pulls the ball out of his glove briefly at the top of his leg lift, then taps it back in before bringing out for real. This gives hitters an extra look at his grip, which could become a problem with more seasoned pro hitters, but it's also not a difficult fix. The injury does put a dent in his stock simply because he doesn't get to show what he's capable of, but Witt is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until the third day of the draft, so he's playing with a little bit of house money there. He's also extremely projectable and looks durable aside from the elbow surgery, which at this point is pretty inevitable for any pitcher. Witt looks like a high probability mid-rotation starter.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 215 lbs. Born 7/11/2002. Hometown: Houston, TX.
2022: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14/3 K/BB in 11 innings.
One of the more highly regarded recruits to reach campus following the 2020 draft, Tanner Witt jumped straight into a prominent role in the Longhorn bullpen as a true freshman in 2021 and put up a 3.16 ERA and a 73/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings. Transitioning into the rotation in 2022, he looked very sharp in starts against Rice and Alabama to start the season, pitching his way into top ten consideration for 2023, but went down with Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since. The surgery will keep him out for at least the early part of 2023, though it's not out of the question that he could return later in the season and reclaim some of that draft stock. Even without much track record as a starter, it's hard not to like Witt. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96-97 at his best, with natural riding action above what most others are capable of. Interestingly, the 6'5" righty throws from an extremely high release point that puts steep downhill angle on the ball, so those two characteristics counteract each other a little bit. Witt drops in a big 12-6 curveball that he has feel to land for strikes, though it can catch too much of the plate at times and get hit. He also shows an average slider and an above average changeup, giving him a full arsenal of four average or better pitches. The Houston native is very advanced for his age, repeating his delivery well and showing solid command of his four pitch mix, looking every bit like a starting pitcher. He does have an interesting quirk in his delivery where he pulls the ball out of his glove briefly at the top of his leg lift, then taps it back in before bringing out for real. This gives hitters an extra look at his grip, which could become a problem with more seasoned pro hitters, but it's also not a difficult fix. The injury does put a dent in his stock simply because he doesn't get to show what he's capable of, but Witt is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until the third day of the draft, so he's playing with a little bit of house money there. He's also extremely projectable and looks durable aside from the elbow surgery, which at this point is pretty inevitable for any pitcher. Witt looks like a high probability mid-rotation starter.
4. SS Nick Goodwin, Kansas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/6/2001. Hometown: Overland Park, KS.
2022: 11 HR, .255/.354/.525, 6 SB, 57/30 K/BB in 57 games.
Nick Goodwin may not have a carrying tool, but he does a lot well and has a chance to be a real breakout performer in 2023 after holding down a very solid .267/.354/.502 slash line over two years at Kansas State so far. In addition to being a dependable cog for the Wildcats, he showed similarly well in the Cape Cod League with a .267/.342/.466 line, six homers, and a 42/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He's not huge, but he taps average power to all fields with a quick right handed swing that puts good loft on the ball and effectively maximizes his strength. There is some swing and miss, as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.3% as a freshman to 23.1% as a sophomore and clocked in at 22.8% on the Cape, but he has consistently performed well against high level pitching both in the Big 12 and on the Cape so it's not a huge concern. It would be nice though if he could at least cut that down below 20% in 2022, and if he could get it down around 15-16% or so while maintaining his power, this suddenly goes from a third round profile to something much more interesting. Defensively, he has handled shortstop at Kansas State well and will get a chance to play there in pro ball, though he may not be quite explosive enough to make it work long term and could fit better at second or third base. Overall, there is upside of a 15-20 home run infield bat with decent on-base percentages if he cuts down his strikeouts a little, and he'd fit well as a utility infielder even if he does continue to strikeout out at a moderate rate.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/6/2001. Hometown: Overland Park, KS.
2022: 11 HR, .255/.354/.525, 6 SB, 57/30 K/BB in 57 games.
Nick Goodwin may not have a carrying tool, but he does a lot well and has a chance to be a real breakout performer in 2023 after holding down a very solid .267/.354/.502 slash line over two years at Kansas State so far. In addition to being a dependable cog for the Wildcats, he showed similarly well in the Cape Cod League with a .267/.342/.466 line, six homers, and a 42/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He's not huge, but he taps average power to all fields with a quick right handed swing that puts good loft on the ball and effectively maximizes his strength. There is some swing and miss, as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.3% as a freshman to 23.1% as a sophomore and clocked in at 22.8% on the Cape, but he has consistently performed well against high level pitching both in the Big 12 and on the Cape so it's not a huge concern. It would be nice though if he could at least cut that down below 20% in 2022, and if he could get it down around 15-16% or so while maintaining his power, this suddenly goes from a third round profile to something much more interesting. Defensively, he has handled shortstop at Kansas State well and will get a chance to play there in pro ball, though he may not be quite explosive enough to make it work long term and could fit better at second or third base. Overall, there is upside of a 15-20 home run infield bat with decent on-base percentages if he cuts down his strikeouts a little, and he'd fit well as a utility infielder even if he does continue to strikeout out at a moderate rate.
5. 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 6/11/2002. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2022: 11 HR, .295/.413/.519, 2 SB, 58/34 K/BB in 54 games.
If you watched the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys, it would have been hard not to notice Roc Riggio. The 5'9" showman with long hair dyed bright blond plays with as much energy as anybody on the field, the epitome of a new-school, let-the-kids-play electric factory. Having earned considerable draft interest out of his Los Angeles-area high school in 2021, he reached campus in Stillwater and immediately hit his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, acting as a catalyst for one of the best lineups in the country with his bat flips and all-out style of play. Riggio continued on to the Cape Cod League over the summer but couldn't quite match his big freshman season, slashing just .200/.258/.339 with three home runs and a 37/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. The profile here is carried by the bat, as he takes big hacks from the left side to tap above average power despite his small frame. He does a good job of getting loft under ball when it's down in the zone while keeping a more level swing up in the zone, boding well for both his future power production and contact ability, though for now he's still adjusting to college level pitching and has some swing and miss in his game. He struck out 22.4% of the time for Oklahoma State this spring then ran a 29.6% K rate on the Cape, so bringing that down will be high on the priority list. Right now he profiles for 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages if he can. Riggio is not the greatest athlete and will have to work to remain at second base, with the outfield a real possibility if he gets pushed by a better defender in pro ball, so his value will rely on his ability to hit pro pitching. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he's younger than most of the juniors he'll compete against for draft position and turns 21 a month before the draft.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 6/11/2002. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2022: 11 HR, .295/.413/.519, 2 SB, 58/34 K/BB in 54 games.
If you watched the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys, it would have been hard not to notice Roc Riggio. The 5'9" showman with long hair dyed bright blond plays with as much energy as anybody on the field, the epitome of a new-school, let-the-kids-play electric factory. Having earned considerable draft interest out of his Los Angeles-area high school in 2021, he reached campus in Stillwater and immediately hit his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, acting as a catalyst for one of the best lineups in the country with his bat flips and all-out style of play. Riggio continued on to the Cape Cod League over the summer but couldn't quite match his big freshman season, slashing just .200/.258/.339 with three home runs and a 37/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. The profile here is carried by the bat, as he takes big hacks from the left side to tap above average power despite his small frame. He does a good job of getting loft under ball when it's down in the zone while keeping a more level swing up in the zone, boding well for both his future power production and contact ability, though for now he's still adjusting to college level pitching and has some swing and miss in his game. He struck out 22.4% of the time for Oklahoma State this spring then ran a 29.6% K rate on the Cape, so bringing that down will be high on the priority list. Right now he profiles for 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages if he can. Riggio is not the greatest athlete and will have to work to remain at second base, with the outfield a real possibility if he gets pushed by a better defender in pro ball, so his value will rely on his ability to hit pro pitching. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he's younger than most of the juniors he'll compete against for draft position and turns 21 a month before the draft.
6. SS Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 9/14/2001. Hometown: Springdale, AR.
2022: 4 HR, .316/.378/.441, 5 SB, 38/21 K/BB in 64 games.
Roc Riggio may be the most exciting player on the Oklahoma State roster, but the guy playing right across the bag from him is the school's flashiest defender. Springy and athletic, Marcus Brown moves very well around the dirt and makes it look easy out there with an above average arm. That glove will be the carrying tool in his profile, but he can swing it a little bit too. Employing a loose left handed hack that gets the barrel long through the zone and produces plenty of line drive contact, he puts nearly everything in play and struck out just 13.7% of the time in 2022, easily the lowest mark on this list. A career .323/.388/.436 hitter in Stillwater, like Riggio he struggled to make an impact on the Cape and slashed just .233/.315/.295 in 44 games there. His 20% strikeout rate was much lower than Riggio's 29.6%, but still elevated above his number with the Cowboys as he struggled to find gaps and fences with wood bats. Still, I remain fairly optimistic on the bat especially given that his glove will buy it plenty of time to develop. Though he's undersized at 5'11", he naturally whips the barrel through the zone with authority and getting even a little bit stronger could help him threaten for double digit home run totals in pro ball. He'll always make plenty of contact and keep defenses on their toes, though the minimal swing and miss in his game to date does keep his walk rates down – 7.6% at OSU and 6.1% on the Cape.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 9/14/2001. Hometown: Springdale, AR.
2022: 4 HR, .316/.378/.441, 5 SB, 38/21 K/BB in 64 games.
Roc Riggio may be the most exciting player on the Oklahoma State roster, but the guy playing right across the bag from him is the school's flashiest defender. Springy and athletic, Marcus Brown moves very well around the dirt and makes it look easy out there with an above average arm. That glove will be the carrying tool in his profile, but he can swing it a little bit too. Employing a loose left handed hack that gets the barrel long through the zone and produces plenty of line drive contact, he puts nearly everything in play and struck out just 13.7% of the time in 2022, easily the lowest mark on this list. A career .323/.388/.436 hitter in Stillwater, like Riggio he struggled to make an impact on the Cape and slashed just .233/.315/.295 in 44 games there. His 20% strikeout rate was much lower than Riggio's 29.6%, but still elevated above his number with the Cowboys as he struggled to find gaps and fences with wood bats. Still, I remain fairly optimistic on the bat especially given that his glove will buy it plenty of time to develop. Though he's undersized at 5'11", he naturally whips the barrel through the zone with authority and getting even a little bit stronger could help him threaten for double digit home run totals in pro ball. He'll always make plenty of contact and keep defenses on their toes, though the minimal swing and miss in his game to date does keep his walk rates down – 7.6% at OSU and 6.1% on the Cape.
7. OF Elijah Nuñez, Texas Christian.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 12/6/2001. Hometown: Arlington, TX.
2022: 1 HR, .281/.435/.368, 31 SB, 48/58 K/BB in 60 games.
Elijah Nuñez brings an old school profile to the ballpark here, so he stands in contrast to many other players scouts will be looking at. A glove-first guy like Marcus Brown, he will certainly stick in center field with plenty of speed and exceptional feel for the position, immediately providing a strong baseline of value. It's easier to carry a profile with your glove if you catch or play a mean shortstop like Brown, but Nuñez gets it done in center field with the best of them. He's also a very patient hitter at the plate that doesn't swing and miss much (16.7% strikeout rate) and draws a ton of walks. In fact his 58 free passes tied for eighth in the nation last year, a feat made even more impressive when you consider he was younger than all seven players ahead of him as well as the guy tied with him, and also the fact that he did so in fewer games than all but one player in that group. When he does swing at the ball, he's a gap to gap line drive hitter that doesn't try to do too much, with below average power that has manifested in just two home runs in 114 career games for the Horned Frogs. While the glove and legs give his profile plenty of baseline value, his offensive profile will be reliant on keeping those on-base percentages high because he likely won't threaten for double digit home runs. To me, it's a pretty clear fourth outfield profile but one that has a chance to be extremely valuable.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 12/6/2001. Hometown: Arlington, TX.
2022: 1 HR, .281/.435/.368, 31 SB, 48/58 K/BB in 60 games.
Elijah Nuñez brings an old school profile to the ballpark here, so he stands in contrast to many other players scouts will be looking at. A glove-first guy like Marcus Brown, he will certainly stick in center field with plenty of speed and exceptional feel for the position, immediately providing a strong baseline of value. It's easier to carry a profile with your glove if you catch or play a mean shortstop like Brown, but Nuñez gets it done in center field with the best of them. He's also a very patient hitter at the plate that doesn't swing and miss much (16.7% strikeout rate) and draws a ton of walks. In fact his 58 free passes tied for eighth in the nation last year, a feat made even more impressive when you consider he was younger than all seven players ahead of him as well as the guy tied with him, and also the fact that he did so in fewer games than all but one player in that group. When he does swing at the ball, he's a gap to gap line drive hitter that doesn't try to do too much, with below average power that has manifested in just two home runs in 114 career games for the Horned Frogs. While the glove and legs give his profile plenty of baseline value, his offensive profile will be reliant on keeping those on-base percentages high because he likely won't threaten for double digit home runs. To me, it's a pretty clear fourth outfield profile but one that has a chance to be extremely valuable.
8. RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Born 10/15/2001. Hometown: Flower Mound, TX.
2022: 5-2, 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 49/31 K/BB in 53 innings.
Cam Brown is very much an enigma at this point. One of the stars of the showcase circuit in the summer of 2019, he was pitching his way into the top two rounds but did not look like himself during his COVID-shortened senior spring in 2020. That led him to campus at TCU, where he barely pitched as a freshman and had an up and down sophomore season in which he did not miss nearly as many bats as hoped. Taking his talents to the Cape Cod League over the summer, he pitched to mixed results once more and allowed seven runs in nine innings with an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio. At his best, Brown looks like a bona fide impact starting pitcher, running his fastball into the upper 90's and flashing above average with his entire arsenal of secondaries, consisting of a slider, curve, and changeup. It's really loud stuff from a big league body, but he's just never been able to put it all together. The delivery can get stiff and he struggles to command it all, often falling behind in the count and leaving pitches over the plate to get hit or giving up free passes. I'm worried that the fastball may play a bit true out of his hand and play below its low to mid 90's velocity, and inconsistent secondaries led to just a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. The DFW native could benefit from a pro development program to help him find more deception and perhaps improve his command a tick, in which case he really could pull it all together and become a mid-rotation starter in the majors. At some point, though, you're going to want to see some results and he just hasn't missed enough bats in the Big 12 yet to feel comfortable projecting him in that role. But that's why you get three years in college, right?
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Born 10/15/2001. Hometown: Flower Mound, TX.
2022: 5-2, 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 49/31 K/BB in 53 innings.
Cam Brown is very much an enigma at this point. One of the stars of the showcase circuit in the summer of 2019, he was pitching his way into the top two rounds but did not look like himself during his COVID-shortened senior spring in 2020. That led him to campus at TCU, where he barely pitched as a freshman and had an up and down sophomore season in which he did not miss nearly as many bats as hoped. Taking his talents to the Cape Cod League over the summer, he pitched to mixed results once more and allowed seven runs in nine innings with an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio. At his best, Brown looks like a bona fide impact starting pitcher, running his fastball into the upper 90's and flashing above average with his entire arsenal of secondaries, consisting of a slider, curve, and changeup. It's really loud stuff from a big league body, but he's just never been able to put it all together. The delivery can get stiff and he struggles to command it all, often falling behind in the count and leaving pitches over the plate to get hit or giving up free passes. I'm worried that the fastball may play a bit true out of his hand and play below its low to mid 90's velocity, and inconsistent secondaries led to just a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. The DFW native could benefit from a pro development program to help him find more deception and perhaps improve his command a tick, in which case he really could pull it all together and become a mid-rotation starter in the majors. At some point, though, you're going to want to see some results and he just hasn't missed enough bats in the Big 12 yet to feel comfortable projecting him in that role. But that's why you get three years in college, right?
9. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Garner, NC.
2022: 19 HR, .285/.397/.595, 2 SB, 107/37 K/BB in 64 games.
2022: 2-1, 5.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 39/13 K/BB in 25.1 innings.
Nolan McLean will rank as the ninth best prospect in the Big 12 for the second year in a row after the Orioles failed to meet his signing bonus demands at the 81st overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted player to go unsigned. Eligible as a sophomore last year, he'll still be close to age appropriate this year and will turn 22 just after the draft, making him just a couple months older than Nick Goodwin, Marcus Brown, and Cam Brown. A true two-way player, he was one of three Cowboys to appear in all 64 games last year (along with #6 prospect Marcus Brown) and also made 23 appearances on the mound, so scouts have seen him plenty to this point. At the plate, McLean stands out for plus-plus raw power as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run that ranks among the best in the country. He's big and strong at 6'3" with long arms that naturally channel that strength into leverage and bat speed, but he has been extremely inconsistent to this point thanks in large part to a well below average hit tool. In fact, his 107 strikeouts this past season set an all time Division I record, as he struggles to adjust his grooved swing to correct for mistakes in pitch/location identification. The power is absolutely tantalizing, but when you strike out 36.9% (!) of the time, it's hard to get scouts to buy in. Going back to school will give him a chance to at least bring that number down below 30% and ideally closer to 25%, where scouts could slap a 40 grade on his hit tool and call it a risk worth taking. The Orioles actually drafted him as a pitcher this past season, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a larger role for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys lost their top seven arms by innings pitched to the draft, the transfer portal, or graduation. He can touch the upper 90's in short stints and is gradually improving his feel for spin with both a curveball and slider in hand, together helping him miss enough bats to run a very strong 35.1% strikeout rate. Below average command, in addition to his duties at third base, have kept him in the bullpen so far, but it would be interesting to see if Josh Holliday and co. give him a shot in the rotation this spring with so many spots opening up. If he takes another step forward with that command, suddenly the arm strength and feel for spin become really interesting here.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Garner, NC.
2022: 19 HR, .285/.397/.595, 2 SB, 107/37 K/BB in 64 games.
2022: 2-1, 5.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 39/13 K/BB in 25.1 innings.
Nolan McLean will rank as the ninth best prospect in the Big 12 for the second year in a row after the Orioles failed to meet his signing bonus demands at the 81st overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted player to go unsigned. Eligible as a sophomore last year, he'll still be close to age appropriate this year and will turn 22 just after the draft, making him just a couple months older than Nick Goodwin, Marcus Brown, and Cam Brown. A true two-way player, he was one of three Cowboys to appear in all 64 games last year (along with #6 prospect Marcus Brown) and also made 23 appearances on the mound, so scouts have seen him plenty to this point. At the plate, McLean stands out for plus-plus raw power as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run that ranks among the best in the country. He's big and strong at 6'3" with long arms that naturally channel that strength into leverage and bat speed, but he has been extremely inconsistent to this point thanks in large part to a well below average hit tool. In fact, his 107 strikeouts this past season set an all time Division I record, as he struggles to adjust his grooved swing to correct for mistakes in pitch/location identification. The power is absolutely tantalizing, but when you strike out 36.9% (!) of the time, it's hard to get scouts to buy in. Going back to school will give him a chance to at least bring that number down below 30% and ideally closer to 25%, where scouts could slap a 40 grade on his hit tool and call it a risk worth taking. The Orioles actually drafted him as a pitcher this past season, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a larger role for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys lost their top seven arms by innings pitched to the draft, the transfer portal, or graduation. He can touch the upper 90's in short stints and is gradually improving his feel for spin with both a curveball and slider in hand, together helping him miss enough bats to run a very strong 35.1% strikeout rate. Below average command, in addition to his duties at third base, have kept him in the bullpen so far, but it would be interesting to see if Josh Holliday and co. give him a shot in the rotation this spring with so many spots opening up. If he takes another step forward with that command, suddenly the arm strength and feel for spin become really interesting here.
10. LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/13/2002. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 7-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
Once Tanner Witt gets healthy, the 2023 Texas rotation will have a very similar feel draft-wise to the 2021 rotation. Witt, like Ty Madden, is a potential first rounder from Houston with a power fastball from a high slot and strong command, while Lucas Gordon, like Pete Hansen, is a soft tossing command/control lefty from California. Funny how that works out sometimes. Gordon is coming off a very strong sophomore season in Austin where he formed a strong one-two punch with Hansen, forcing his way into draft conversations by his performance even if the stuff doesn't quite match up yet. He sits around 90 with his fastball and can get up to about 94 at best with some run, so it's an average pitch. Gordon has strong feel for both his sweepy slider and slurvy curveball, but they lack the power and bite you look for in a swing and miss secondary offering. His best pitch is a plus changeup with excellent fading action, rounding out a full big league arsenal. The 6'1" lefty repeats his delivery very well with above average command of both his fastball and his offspeeds, showing the ability to spot everything to both sides of the plate, and he ran a very respectable 7.2% walk rate as a sophomore. The stuff can get hit hard when he leaves it up and over the plate, and in aggregate he didn't miss many bats with just a 21.2% strikeout rate. Scouts know that Gordon can pound the strike zone and control at bats, so in 2023 they'll look for the Los Angeles product to show a little more velocity on his fastball and/or power on his breaking balls to help grow his margin for error a little bit. It's a back-end starter profile if he can.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/13/2002. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 7-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
Once Tanner Witt gets healthy, the 2023 Texas rotation will have a very similar feel draft-wise to the 2021 rotation. Witt, like Ty Madden, is a potential first rounder from Houston with a power fastball from a high slot and strong command, while Lucas Gordon, like Pete Hansen, is a soft tossing command/control lefty from California. Funny how that works out sometimes. Gordon is coming off a very strong sophomore season in Austin where he formed a strong one-two punch with Hansen, forcing his way into draft conversations by his performance even if the stuff doesn't quite match up yet. He sits around 90 with his fastball and can get up to about 94 at best with some run, so it's an average pitch. Gordon has strong feel for both his sweepy slider and slurvy curveball, but they lack the power and bite you look for in a swing and miss secondary offering. His best pitch is a plus changeup with excellent fading action, rounding out a full big league arsenal. The 6'1" lefty repeats his delivery very well with above average command of both his fastball and his offspeeds, showing the ability to spot everything to both sides of the plate, and he ran a very respectable 7.2% walk rate as a sophomore. The stuff can get hit hard when he leaves it up and over the plate, and in aggregate he didn't miss many bats with just a 21.2% strikeout rate. Scouts know that Gordon can pound the strike zone and control at bats, so in 2023 they'll look for the Los Angeles product to show a little more velocity on his fastball and/or power on his breaking balls to help grow his margin for error a little bit. It's a back-end starter profile if he can.
Honorable Mention: LHP Ben Hampton, West Virginia.
Ben Hampton was the first player off the list, but I wanted to give him his due after an incredible run through the Cape Cod League. He was draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but didn't get much interest after posting a 4.66 ERA and a 90/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings at West Virginia, but reached another level on the Cape with a 2.27 ERA and a 51/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings. The fastball velocity just isn't there yet, parking in the upper 80's and rarely scratching 90, but he hides it very well and gets good ride on it, making it something of an invisiball. His primary offspeed pitch is a sweepy slider with depth that he locates well, and everything plays up because he mixes and matches his stuff to keep hitters off balance. There is not much projection remaining in his stocky 6'1" frame so there is no guarantee he ever consistently reaches the low 90's, where the profile would be much more attractive. Still, there are some similarities to Monmouth's Trey Dombroski a year ago, who went in the fourth round to the Astros, even if Hampton is a good four inches shorter. Despite the exceptional numbers on the Cape, Hampton was up and down in conference play last year (6.15 ERA, 46/17 K/BB in 41 IP) and has never had success against high level competition before this summer. Throw in that he's old for the class, turning 22 a few weeks after the draft, and it's hard to know exactly what to make of the soft tossing Wisconsinite.
Ben Hampton was the first player off the list, but I wanted to give him his due after an incredible run through the Cape Cod League. He was draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but didn't get much interest after posting a 4.66 ERA and a 90/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings at West Virginia, but reached another level on the Cape with a 2.27 ERA and a 51/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings. The fastball velocity just isn't there yet, parking in the upper 80's and rarely scratching 90, but he hides it very well and gets good ride on it, making it something of an invisiball. His primary offspeed pitch is a sweepy slider with depth that he locates well, and everything plays up because he mixes and matches his stuff to keep hitters off balance. There is not much projection remaining in his stocky 6'1" frame so there is no guarantee he ever consistently reaches the low 90's, where the profile would be much more attractive. Still, there are some similarities to Monmouth's Trey Dombroski a year ago, who went in the fourth round to the Astros, even if Hampton is a good four inches shorter. Despite the exceptional numbers on the Cape, Hampton was up and down in conference play last year (6.15 ERA, 46/17 K/BB in 41 IP) and has never had success against high level competition before this summer. Throw in that he's old for the class, turning 22 a few weeks after the draft, and it's hard to know exactly what to make of the soft tossing Wisconsinite.
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