The Orioles are a team on the rise, to put it lightly, and this draft absolutely helped push that along. With five of the first 81 picks, they had by far the largest bonus pool to play with and brought in a massive influx of talent, including five players who signed for seven figure bonuses. Baltimore went with bats early on and switched to a high volume of pitching around the middle of day two, often focusing on hitters with elevated strikeout rates with strong underlying metrics in the power, speed, and plate discipline departments. In fact, each of the first four college players they drafted (though technically one was as a pitcher and didn't sign anyways) and five of the first six ran at least a 19.7% strikeout rate this spring. I really like the talent they came away with here, as it goes far beyond potential superstar Jackson Holliday at the top. The most interesting thing they did was perhaps using money that may have been earmarked for third rounder Nolan McLean and instead putting it towards seventeenth rounder Carter Young, who had first round aspirations before struggling mightily at the plate this spring.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-1: SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #4.
Slot value: $8.85 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million ($656,900 below slot value).
With the first overall pick, the Orioles took the kid that put together perhaps the most impressive spring in the country. Coming into the season, he was noted as a hit-over-power bat that stood out for his feel for the game despite over swinging at times during the summer, with most projections putting him in the second round. Then when the winter thawed in northern Oklahoma, he came out looking significantly bigger, faster, and stronger, and that immediately translated to results on the field. Holliday has always shown great feel for the barrel from a leveraged left handed swing that gets that barrel long through the zone, and in 2022 his newfound strength allowed everything to come together as he bashed home runs all over the field and all season long without sacrificing any contact. It's now a comfortably plus hit tool that is growing into plus power as well, making for an extremely balanced and potent profile at the plate. He also shows a plus arm in the infield and as he's gotten quicker and more explosive, he now projects to stay at shortstop long term. Everything, from the body to the in-game production, is trending up very quickly and the Orioles don't think he's done surprising people. It's hard to poke any holes in the game of a kid who shows advanced instincts and feel in addition to loud physical tools, and the bloodlines certainly don't hurt as the son of seven time All Star Matt Holliday (got it right this time). He had been committed to play at Oklahoma State, where the Holliday family name is as synonymous with the program as Stillwater is to red dirt, but once he rocketed to the top of the amateur baseball world this spring, it was pretty clear he was going pro. That pro career is off to a strong start, as he's slashing .280/.448/.380 with an exceptional 9/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.
CBA-33: OF Dylan Beavers, California. My rank: #26.
Slot value: $2.32 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($115,000 below slot value).
Dylan Beavers is a really interesting prospect with a great combination of track record and additional projection in the tank. He slashed .303/.401/.630 as a sophomore then held it steady at .291/.426/.634 with 17 home runs and a 54/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games as a sophomore. Beavers is a big, strong, athletic outfielder that does a lot well on the diamond and is steadily getting better. Standing 6'4", he employs an unorthodox operation in the box with a very simple, short swing from the left side that produces plus raw power due to his strength and long arms, even if he doesn't always get them extended. That power comes very naturally as he trusts his hands to do the work and doesn't waste much movement, though I would like to see what would happen if he got those arms extended more frequently. There has always been some swing and miss in his game and his strikeout rate held mostly steady from 2021 to 2022, dropping only slightly from 21.0% to 19.9%, but he did a better job of laying off bad pitches and watched his walk rate jump from 12.7% to 18.8%. It's definitely a power over hit bat and probably always will be, but he's moving in the right direction and I don't think it will be too much of an issue, especially if the Orioles can help him recognize offspeed stuff a little better. The Central Coast native is also a very good athlete for his size and runs well, giving him a shot at center field if he's not bumped by a better defender (like Jud Fabian) and doesn't slow down with age. With a strong arm, he should be above average in right field should he end up there. To top it off, Beavers is very young for a college junior and didn't turn 21 until after the draft, giving Baltimore even more time to mold him into what they want. I see a 25+ home run bat with solid on-base percentages and enough speed to provide additional value on both sides of the ball. So far, he's off to a red hot start between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva, slashing .338/.469/.523 with an 11/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games.
2-42: 3B Max Wagner, Clemson. My rank: #49.
Slot value: $1.86 million. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($38,100 above slot value).
If you want to talk about pop up prospects, Max Wagner is as "pop up" as it gets. He didn't get regular playing time as a freshman in 2021 and slashed just .214/.305/.345 in a part time role, but won the everyday third base job at Clemson in 2022 and became a one man wrecking crew not seen in the program since Seth Beer. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he slashed .369/.496/.852 with 27 home runs and a 51/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games and won the ACC Player of the Year award. He shows a quick, powerful right handed swing that is direct to the ball and wastes little movement, finding the barrel with extreme consistency this spring and showing off plus power in games. The exit velocity data is strong as well, portending to that power continuing to show up in pro ball with wood bats. He has always struggled with swing and miss, but he got his strikeout rate down to a reasonable 19.7% this spring as his pitch selection improved and he drove up his walk rate to an impressive 17.4% as well. Meanwhile, the Green Bay native has plenty enough arm strength to stick at third base and show well there. As he jumped onto scouts radars early in the spring, he was battling that right-right corner profile a bit, but when you put up a 1.348 OPS while playing in the ACC, that limitation matters less and less. He should be the everyday third baseman in Baltimore soon enough with a similar offensive outlook to Dylan Beavers, if perhaps a bit less upside. So far, he's slashing .250/.403/.396 with a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.
CBB-67: OF Jud Fabian, Florida. My rank: #35.
Slot value: $1.03 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million.
Jud Fabian is a fascinating player with a ton to dive into. A good prospect out of high school, he reclassified and came to campus at Florida a year early, then put himself in line for a multi-million dollar payday in the 2021 draft. The Orioles were rumored to be willing to give him close to $3 million a year ago, but the Red Sox snagged him one pick earlier and offered him significantly less. He went back to school and while he didn't get quite as much this time around, Baltimore finally got its man. In 2021, Fabian was noted for loud tools but evaluators worried about a 29.4% strikeout rate and a streaky bat that could come up empty for weeks at a time. Early in 2022, it looked like he was beginning to overcome those swing and miss issues, but streaky is as streaky does and he finished at 22.3%. Much better for sure, but still higher than you'd like to see, especially from a senior. So what's his deal? Fabian shows off plus raw power from the right side, consistently finding the barrel when he does make contact and elevating the ball with tremendous authority with a quick uppercut. He also possesses an extremely strong eye at the plate, limiting his chases while recognizing spin out of the hand – that led to a very strong 20.0% walk rate. The problem lies in his pure bat to ball skills, which are well below average as his uphill swing path doesn't keep his barrel in the zone for long. Even though he consistently picks the right pitches to swing at, he regularly swings through them even in the zone and there can be stretches where he looks like he's swinging at watermelon seeds. The rest of the offensive profile is so strong, though, that the Orioles are willing to bank on his power and pitch recognition making up for those bat to ball skills in the long run, perhaps with some help from their exceptional player development staff. The Ocala, Florida native also brings great value in the field, with above average speed and plus instincts making him a plus defender in center field. Add in that he's still age-appropriate for this class due to enrolling early, and it's an all around flawless profile aside from that one pesky but important thing – hitting the ball. That hasn't been an issue thus far in his pro career, where he's slashing .377/.494/.721 with three home runs and an 18/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League, Low A Delmarva, and High A Aberdeen.
3-81: RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My rank: #190.
Slot value: $794,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The highest drafted player to go unsigned in this draft, Nolan McLean was a draft-eligible sophomore who will head back to Oklahoma State to further establish what is a pretty raw profile at the moment. A well known two-way prospect out of high school that also competed to play quarterback for Mike Gundy's football program, McLean made it to campus and showed enticing ability on both sides of the ball but never quite put it together. He showed off tremendous raw power at the plate and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, but those 107 strikeouts were the most in college baseball history and that's a problem. The Orioles wound up drafting him as a pitcher on the heels of his 4.97 ERA and 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings out of the bullpen, where he ran his fastball into the upper 90's and showed off an improving slider. He doesn't have a ton of track record on the mound and for now it's hard to project him as a starter, which is part of why he's heading back to Stillwater to get more consistent innings. His money wound up going to 17th rounder Carter Young.
4-107: C Silas Ardoin, Texas. My rank: #139.
Slot value: $571,400. Signing bonus: $571,400.
Adley Rutschman will be entrenched behind the plate in Baltimore for as long as the Orioles can keep him around, but Silas Ardoin brings a very solid profile to slot in behind him. Ardoin didn't hit much over his first two years at Texas, where he was a glove-first regular and his defensive prowess outshined his lack of impact at the plate. That changed in 2022, when he broke out to slash .271/.391/.513 with 12 home runs and a 46/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, crushing his previous home run career high of one. The Louisiana native is still a standout defensive catcher, where he is very agile when it comes to blocking baseballs and recovering to put himself in position to throw out runners. A slingshot right arm helps as well, making him one of the most well rounded defensive catchers in the class. At the plate, he has always shown the ability to recognize pitches and work counts like a catcher should, but he has gotten stronger and found the barrel much more frequently in 2022. While he doesn't possess standout exit velocities, he regularly squares the baseball up and maximizes his below average raw power into fringe-average game power. Ardoin rarely chases and looks very pro ready, giving him an opportunity to join Rutschman in Baltimore sooner rather than later. So far, that pro-ready profile has translated to a .205/.418/.231 slash line and an even 14/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.
5-137: RHP Trace Bright, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $426,800. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($26,800 below slot value).
Trace Bright hasn't quite gotten the on-field results you want, but he has spent his career going up against Auburn's tough SEC schedule plus whoever they meet in the postseason. He dropped his ERA from 8.74 as a freshman to 6.98 as a sophomore and 5.16 this year as a junior, adding in a 94/38 strikeout to walk ratio over those 80.2 innings this season. The numbers won't pop off the page, but despite the high ERA he rarely got blown up and has always done a pretty good job of limiting damage. Bright stands out for his deep arsenal, led by a fastball in the low to mid 90's that can touch 97 from a lower release point. He adds a potentially above average slider and curveball with distinct movement, getting more sweep and power on the former and more depth on the latter. Rounding out the arsenal with a solid changeup, it should make for a very fun profile to play with to try to maximize his success. The Montgomery native has fringe-average command but stays within himself and his misses usually aren't egregious, and with an athletic, repeatable delivery, he's not far off from solid average or even above average command. There is projection remaining in his 6'4" frame and he makes for a high probability #4 starter with some upside. So far, he has made one appearance each in the Florida Complex League and at Low A Delmarva, tossing five innings of one (unearned) run ball, allowing just one walk and no hits while striking out seven.
6-167: OF Douglas Hodo III, Texas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $319,800. Signing bonus: $305,000 ($14,800 below slot value).
Douglas Hodo is an interesting one with an attractive combination of tools, performance, and polish. A three year starter at Texas alongside Silas Ardoin, he had his best year yet in 2022 slashing .319/.418/.532 with ten home runs and a 74/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games. He's hard to miss on the baseball field, playing hard on both sides of the ball and making things happen. Hodo possesses average raw power from the right side, but takes big swings and can really turn on the ball, with enough explosiveness in the box to send it out the other way on occasion. He can lapse into becoming a bit of a free swinger at times and struck out at a 21.8% clip this spring, probably more a product of that big uppercut than of a poor eye. Learning to tone it down in the box and trade some power for contact may help going forward, and his plus speed adds value when he puts it in play as well. In fact, his 26 doubles tied for the national Division I lead this spring. That speed and aggressive style of play helps him in center field as well, where he projects to stay long term with enough arm strength to make it work. Given that he's light on above average or even potentially above average tools across the board besides his speed, it's probably more of a fourth outfielder profile than an every day one, so the fact that he can handle all three outfield spots easily is a big boon. He's off to a bit of a slower start in pro ball, slashing .148/.378/.185 with a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.
11-317: RHP Zack Showalter, Wesley Chapel HS [FL]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $440,000 ($315,000 against bonus pool).
Unrelated to Buck as far as I know. The Orioles spent fourth round money to lure Zack Showalter away from a USF commitment, banking on his projection and strong fastball metrics. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95, getting down the mound well with a low release height and riding action to carry his fastball above barrels consistently. He can spin off some solid sliders with depth, though it does need to add power and can get slurvy. Lastly, his changeup is a third pitch for now that he doesn't use often. Showalter brings projection in his 6'2" frame and his arm works well, promising increased velocity that could really help his breaking ball and turn his fastball into a true weapon. The Tampa-area native can get scattered with his command, which combined with the state of his secondary stuff leads to some relief questions, but he's young and has plenty of time to smooth all that out. I wouldn't expect him to move quickly but the Orioles could have some fun molding this profile.
16-467: RHP Graham Firoved, Virginia Tech. My rank: #222.
Graham Firoved has been around the block, beginning his career at Radford before transferring to the powerhouse Northwest Florida State JC program in Niceville. He moved on to Virginia Tech as a junior and has took on a prominent role in the Hokie bullpen for two years, this spring posting a 4.76 ERA and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 innings. Firoved runs his fastball up to 95 in relief, but the pitch plays above its velocity with great carry up in the zone. He spins an above average curveball as well that plays very well off his fastball, and it's yet another profile I think the Orioles could get very creative with. The Virginia Beach native threw a lot of fastballs when I watched him at Virginia Tech and got hit when he left it over the plate, and he could potentially benefit from mixing in his curveball more often to keep hitters guessing. Firoved also has fringy command that led to all those meatballs, and fine tuning that just a little bit so he can more consistently keep the ball around the letters would also be useful. Given his age (nearly 23), two pitch mix, and command, he's a pure relief prospect for now, but one that could thrive in the Orioles' system. He hasn't pitched too much to start, with two innings of two run ball under his belt on two hits, three walks, and one strikeout between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.
17-497: SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt. My rank: #193.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.33 million ($1.08 million against bonus pool).
This will be one of the most interesting picks to track in the draft. Carter Young entered the season squarely in the first round conversation on the heels of a strong, if injury-interrupted, sophomore season, but he struggled mightily in 2022 and lost the starting shortstop role at Vanderbilt by slashing .207/.327/.383 with seven home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He announced his intention to transfer to LSU and it looked like he would make it there, especially after he lasted until the seventeenth round, with a firm desire to rebuild his stock in a new environment. The Orioles felt that he was on his way to a huge comeback story in Baton Rouge and gave him roughly the equivalent of pick #56 money to sign, likely close to as much as he might have gotten had the draft been before the season. That big bonus meant that Nolan McLean couldn't sign above slot value in the third round, but the Orioles got their guy. Young is extremely tooled up, producing plus raw power from both sides of the plate and having tapped it for 16 home runs a year ago. At his best, he shows very attractive batted ball data with consistently high exit velocities and deep line drives around the park, even as he was facing tough pitching in the SEC. Meanwhile, he takes very big hacks to get to that power, and swing and miss has been a major concern. A shoulder injury limited him down the stretch in 2021 and many teams were willing to write off his sky-high 30.1% strikeout rate because of that, but he struck out at a 29.2% clip this spring and his performance suffered severely. The Orioles will have to find a way to cut that down, but given how he looked at his best in 2021, that is absolutely possible. The central Washington state native also brings great value on the other side of the ball as an above average defensive shortstop with a plus arm. His instincts and athleticism help him play above his average speed out there, and that defense will buy his bat additional time to develop. There is huge upside here, as evidenced by the massive signing bonus, but also a ton of risk with a guy who struck out at a 29% clip and hit his way out of the Vanderbilt starting lineup. It looks like he has already begun to turn it around a bit, slashing .296/.333/.444 with one home run and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.
18-527: RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My rank: #127.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
When it came to handing out the big bonuses at the end, it likely came down to Nolan McLean, Carter Young, and Andrew Walters as to who got the money, and Young took the deal so Walters will head back to Miami for a senior season. He was dominant for the Hurricanes this season, posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings as a reliever, doing so essentially on one pitch. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 99, with great riding life and a ton of deception as he hides it very well. It's not Mariano Rivera's cutter, but against ACC competition in 2022, it played that way. Walters also adds a slider but it's more of a change of pace option to keep hitters from getting too comfortable, lacking hard bite. The Florida native could end up succeeding in the minors on that fastball alone, but sharpening up that slider into at least an average pitch would really help him profile in a larger role in the majors. With above average command and a sturdy 6'4" frame, he does look like he could start, but would need to add a changeup in addition to sharpening up that slider. Going back to Miami will show teams what is and isn't possible with his development because it will be hard to top the performance.
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