Friday, March 31, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Colorado Rockies

Major Additions: Ian Desmond, Mike Dunn, Greg Holland, Alexi Amarista
Major Losses: Nick Hundley, Daniel Descalso, Boone Logan, Jorge De La Rosa
Strengths: Offense
Weaknesses: Rotation Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Tony Wolters, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela

*Keep in mind that stats from Rockies' players will be inflated due to Coors Field, making hitters seem better and pitchers seem worse. wRC+ adjusts for park effects, so that won't be inflated. I'll include ERA- for pitchers, which adjusts for park and in which lower is better.

The Rockies could go in any number of directions, but I believe one of those directions could be towards the playoffs. This is one of the better teams they've fielded in a while, thanks in no small part to their ability to actually build a pitching staff. Jon Gray, the third overall pick of the 2013 draft, put up a 4.61 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 29 starts last season, which is actually really good when you consider he was pitching in Coors Field. His ERA- of 94 means that he was 6% better (100-94) than the average starter. While Gray took the big step forward the Rockies were hoping for, Tyler Chatwood took the step forward nobody expected. His 3.87 ERA (79 ERA-) and 1.37 WHIP were some of the best we've seen from Rockies starters. Tyler Anderson (3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 72 ERA-) was a similar surprise. After those three, though, it gets a bit murky, especially considering the uncertain status of Chad Bettis (4.79 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 98 ERA-), who is battling cancer and is out indefinitely. Five young arms will continually compete for those last two spots, including Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez, Harrison Musgrave, and Kyle Freeland. Freeland and Hoffman were taken with back to back picks in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft, with Freeland going to Colorado at #8 overall and Hoffman ending up with the Blue Jays at #9 overall. Hoffman briefly reached the majors for eight games (six starts) in 2016 (4.88 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 100 ERA-), while Freeland split the season between AA and AAA. Marquez and Senzatela are highly regarded prospects in their own rights, with Marquez reaching the majors at 21 years old last season (5.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 107 ERA-) and Senzatela impressing the team this spring. Lastly, Harrison Musgrave is more likely to wind up in the bullpen, but he did reach AAA as a starter in 2016. The bullpen could have one of the best relievers in the game in Greg Holland if he's healthy, and Adam Ottavino and Jake McGee aren't bad options either. Mike Dunn essentially replaces Boone Logan, and Carlos Estevez and Jason Motte are solid pieces as well. Of course, in Coors Field, everything comes down to hitting, and the Rockies have plenty of it per usual. Nolan Arenado (.294/.362/.570, 124 wRC+), Charlie Blackmon (.324/.381/.552, 130 wRC+), and Carlos Gonzalez (.298/.350/.505, 108 wRC+) form a solid offensive core, while Trevor Story (.272/.341/.567, 120 wRC+) and DJ LeMahieu (.348/.416/.495, 128 wRC+) are also nice pieces. Neither Story nor LeMahieu are likely to keep up the pace they set in 2016, but this offense is not something to mess with, especially in Coors Field. Once Ian Desmond (.285/.335/.446, 106 wRC+ not in Coors) comes back from his hand injury, the team will only get better. Some young guys to watch include Cristhian Adames, Raimel Tapia, and of course, David Dahl, who was successful in his 63 game stint last season (.315/.359/.500, 111 wRC+). Tony Wolters, another young guy at just 24 years old, will do the catching after a moderately successful 71 game rookie stint (.259/.327/.395, 75 wRC+). Dustin Garneau and Tom Murphy, once he comes back from his arm injury, will push Wolters for playing time behind the plate.

Thursday, March 30, 2017

2017 Season Preview: San Francisco Giants

Major Additions: Mark Melancon, Nick Hundley, Jimmy Rollins, Justin Ruggiano
Major Losses: Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jake Peavy, Javier Lopez, Chris Heston
Strengths: Rotation, Catching Corps
Weaknesses: Offensive Depth, Bullpen Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker, Ty Blach, Steven Okert, Tyler Beede, Austin Slater

The San Francisco battery will be among the best in baseball, with their excellent rotation (more on that later) and top notch catchers. Buster Posey, the 2012 NL MVP, is arguably baseball's best catcher, while Nick Hundley is one of baseball's best back-ups. Even Trevor Brown, the third stringer, hit five home runs in 75 games for the Giants last year, and he just turned 25 this offseason. Aside from Posey, no names stand out on offense, but Brandon Belt is one of baseball's most underrated hitters. Though he has never reached 20 home runs in a season, his high numbers of doubles and triples enable him to put up big offensive numbers even in cavernous AT&T Park. He put up a 138 wRC+ last season, and his career mark of 129 is comparable to some big names, like David Wright (133), Anthony Rizzo (131), Mark Teixeira (127), and Evan Longoria (126). You may not realize this because he hit "just" .275, but his .394 on-base percentage was good for fifth in the National League, behind only Joey Votto (.434), DJ LeMahieu (.416), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), and Freddie Freeman (.400). Main point: Brandon Belt is one of the best first baseman in baseball, even if nobody cares to take notice. Brandon Crawford will be another offensive and defensive leader, coming off a season where he set career highs in triples (11), stolen bases (7), batting average (.275), and on-base percentage (.342). Hunter Pence may be about to turn 34, but he still managed to slash .289/.357/.451 (121 wRC+) last year, and if injuries don't catch him, he doesn't look like he's slowing down. Joe Panik was great in 2015 (.312/.378/.455, 136 wRC+), but not so great in 2016 (.239/.315/.379, 89 wRC+), so he's a wild card for 2017. There's also Eduardo Nunez and Denard Span, with the only positional question mark being left field. Jarrett Parker (.236/.358/.394, 110 wRC+), Mac Williamson (.223/.315/.411, 100 wRC+), and Gorkys Hernandez (.259/.298/.463, 105 wRC+) could all share time there, and maybe even infielder Kelby Tomlinson (.292/.370/.330, 98 wRC+) could slide out there from time to time. There's also prospect Austin Slater, who reached AAA in 2016 and slashed .298/.381/.506, albeit in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. On the mound, it all begins with Madison Bumgarner. Though he's not quite his Los Angeles counterpart, Bumgarner has put up ERA's below 3.00 in each of the past four seasons while never letting his WHIP creep above 1.09. Johnny Cueto is nearly as good, having put up ERA's below 2.90 in five of the last six seasons. There's a slight drop off after the big two, but Matt Moore was solid in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and Jeff Samardzija had a nice rebound season (3.81 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). For the fifth spot, Matt Cain has been a fixture in the San Fran rotation for a decade now, but his glory days of 2009-2012 are behind him. Ty Blach inexplicably came up and dominated in his short stint with the team, putting up a 1.06 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP over four games (two starts), allowing just eight hits in 17 innings. There's also swingman Albert Suarez, who quietly put up a 4.29 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 22 games (12 starts) as a rookie last year. If none of those options work out, top prospect Tyler Beede reached AA last season and is nearly ready, as are other prospects like Joan Gregorio and Andrew Suarez. The bullpen took a heavy hit with the losses of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, and Javier Lopez to free agency (with Lopez retiring), though they did go out and add one of the best relievers in baseball, Mark Melancon (1.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). Derek Law (2.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) was great as a rookie last season, and Hunter Strickland (3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and George Kontos (2.53 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) are available as well. A fourth big hit just occurred a few days ago, as Will Smith (3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the season. The slew of departures/injuries leaves the team with little depth, so rookie Steven Okert will need to step up, along with fringe guys like Cory Gearrin (4.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and Josh Osich (4.71 ERA, 1.38 WHIP). Like the Dodgers, the Giants will be relying on star power, with theirs provided by Posey, Bumgarner, Cueto, Melancon, and Belt and supported by Crawford, Pence, Moore, Panik, and Law.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

Major Additions: Logan Forsythe, Sergio Romo, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Morrow
Major Losses: Josh Reddick, Carlos Ruiz, Howie Kendrick, Jose De Leon, Joe Blanton, Bud Norris, J.P. Howell, Casey Fien
Strengths: Rotation, Offensive Core
Weaknesses: Bullpen Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Andrew Toles, Trevor Oaks

The Dodgers, baseball's premier spenders, could have had a disastrous offseason. In addition to the plethora of major losses listed above, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Rich Hill, and Chase Utley were all free agents who re-signed with the team. Now, the team is back and strong enough to win another NL West crown. The offense is centered around reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager (.308/.365/.512, 137 wRC+) and power hitters Justin Turner (.275/.339/.493, 124 wRC+) and Adrian Gonzalez (.285/.349/.435, 112 wRC+). Two other power hitters, Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson, struggle with contact but can provide firepower as well, and newcomer Logan Forsythe will be a dynamic threat with his all around hitting abilities. The outfield corners will be interesting to watch, as Yasiel Puig attempts to recapture the magic of his first two years in the majors and supermarket attendant turned outfielder Andrew Toles looks to build on his big rookie season (.314/.365/.505, 132 wRC+). Competing for playing time in the outfield will be Enrique Hernandez, Franklin Gutierrez, and NBA star Klay Thompson's brother, Trayce Thompson. As always, the Dodgers feature an incredibly deep rotation. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, having posted four straight seasons with ERA's below 2.15 and eight straight seasons with an ERA below 3.00. Kenta Maeda was successful in his first season in American baseball (3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), and Rich Hill will look to continue his out-of-nowhere emergence as one of baseball's better starters. There's not a lot of certainty after those three, but that's not to say there aren't a lot of options. Julio Urias, now 20 years old, put up a 3.39 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP as a rookie last year, but he won't start 2017 in the majors as the Dodgers work to limit his innings. Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has made just one start in the past two seasons due to injuries, will be in the rotation, as he looks to be back in his 2013-2014 form (3.17 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Alex Wood and Brandon McCarthy are still fighting for a spot, and the Opening Day starting rotation likely won't remain intact throughout the season anyways. Wood was great in 2014 (2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but hasn't been as great in 2015 and 2016 (3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). McCarthy is incredibly inconsistent, but he's good sometimes so that keeps him in the running. There's also the injured Scott Kazmir and prospect Trevor Oaks who could see time later in the season. Kenley Jansen returns as one of baseball's top relievers, while Sergio Romo joins the team after a successful run in San Francisco. Grant Dayton (2.05 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) surprised everybody last year as a 28 year old rookie, and he should be able to sustain that success this year. Ross Stripling will be a full time reliever this year, and Chris Hatcher and Adam Liberatore will try to find consistency. Unfortunately, Pedro Baez, Josh Ravin, Brock Stewart, and Yimi Garcia are all injured, putting a major dent in their bullpen depth. Getting the ball to Romo and Jansen may be a struggle this year. Overall, the Dodgers will lean on the star power of Kershaw, Seager, Jansen, Turner, Gonzalez, and Maeda, while the supporting cast of Grandal, Pederson, Forsythe, Hill, Romo, and Dayton will help push this team back to the playoffs.

Tuesday, March 28, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

Major Additions: Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Milone, Joba Chamberlain
Major Losses: Tyler Thornburg, Chris Carter, Martin Maldonado
Strengths: Bullpen
Weaknesses: Getting On Base
Potential Breakout Stars: Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Orlando Arcia, Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader

The Brewers are not a good team by any measures, but they could outperform some expectations. Ryan Braun will be the lone hitter in this lineup with considerable major league experience, and the outfielder is coming off his best season since before the scandals (.305/.365/.538, 30 HR, 133 wRC+). After that, it's all youth. Jonathan Villar represents the next most seasoned player, and he's coming off a breakout season where he slashed .285/.369/.457 (118 wRC+) and led the major leagues with 62 stolen bases, though his 18 times caught stealing also led the league. Travis Shaw is coming off a pair of good seasons in Boston, while catcher Jett Bandy hit eight home runs in 70 games for the Angels last season. Eric Thames who hit 21 home runs in a 181 game, two year stint in the majors from 2011-2012, has been a monster in South Korea and will look to bring that success back to the States. Lastly, we have four young hitters to look out for. Keon Broxton had a bit of a breakout last year, slashing .242/.354/.430 (109 wRC+) with 23 stolen bases in 75 games, but Statcast shows that he could be even better this year. Among players with at least 90 batted ball events last season, Broxton had the third highest average exit velocity at 95 MPH, behind only Nelson Cruz (95.9) and Giancarlo Stanton (95.1). If he can drop his 36.1% strikeout rate even a little bit, he could do big things for Milwaukee. Domingo Santana has been a heralded prospect for a long time now, and he continued his ascent last season with a .256/.345/.447 line (110 wRC+) last year. The 24 year old could be the big power bat needed to protect Braun in the lineup. Orlando Arcia wasn't terrific in his debut last season (.219/.273/.358, 64 wRC+), but he's still just 22 years old and has steadily performed at every minor league level so far. Lewis Brinson, widely considered Milwaukee's top prospect, reached AAA last season and was excellent in his 23 games there, slashing .382/.387/.618 (163 wRC+), though his overall 4.8% walk rate on the season was a bit troubling. The 22 year old will start back at AAA this season, but if he improves his plate discipline, he could break into the major leagues and do some damage. The pitching staff as a whole is actually better than you might think. Led by three starting pitchers a casual fan may have never heard of, it could almost be graded out as an average rotation. Junior Guerra finally reached the majors in 2015 at 30 years old, and in his first full season in 2016, he put up a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 20 starts, earning himself the Opening Day start in 2017. Zach Davies has been excellent since his debut in 2015, putting up a 3.92 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 34 starts in his two years in the majors. Jimmy Nelson hasn't been as good as Guerra or Davies, but he has the experience, having put up back to back 30 start seasons with a combined 4.37 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Wily Peralta was great in 2014 (3.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but he hasn't been as great since, putting up a 4.84 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. There's also 33 year old Matt Garza, entering his twelfth major league season, though his Milwaukee career has generated very mixed results. On the outside looking in on the rotation will be Chase Anderson, Tommy Milone, and Taylor Jungmann at the major league level, as well as top prospect Josh Hader in the minors. Hader should be up at some point this season. Neftali Feliz leads an underrated bullpen, followed by Carlos Torres (2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Jacob Barnes (2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in limited action), Jhan Marinez (3.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), and Tyler Cravy (2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in limited action). Younger guys like Corey Knebel (4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) and Brent Suter (3.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in limited action) will look to take the step forward as well, and Joba Chamberlain (2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in limited action) is always a good name to have back there. The Brewers won't contend with the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals this year, but with guys like Broxton, Brinson, Santana, Arcia, Hader, Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff, and Mauricio Dubon all in the majors or high minors, plus Corey Ray rapidly moving up the ladder, they could contend soon.

2017 Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Major Additions: Scott Feldman, Drew Storen, Louis Coleman, Desmond Jennings
Major Losses: Brandon Phillips, Dan Straily
Strengths: Offensive Diversity
Weaknesses: Pitching
Potential Breakout Stars: Jose Peraza, Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Arismendy Alcantara

The Reds' pitching is dreadful, but their offense is decent enough that they won't be a laughing stock. Obviously, everything centers around Joey Votto insane .425 career on-base percentage, while Adam Duvall brings the power after breaking out for 33 home runs last season. Billy Hamilton has the speed, having stolen 56, 57, and 58 stolen bases in the last three seasons, respectively. If I'm any good at analyzing trends, he should steal exactly 59 bases this season. Jose Peraza could be another contact/speed bat, as he slashed .324/.352/.411 (103 wRC+) with 21 stolen bases in his first extended MLB action last season. Eugenio Suarez has shown some surprising power in the majors, knocking 34 home runs in 256 games over the past two seasons, including 21 last year. If Devin Mesoraco can get healthy, it will be a huge boon for the team, because he showed what he was capable of in his big 2014 season (.273/.359/.534, 147 wRC+). Unfortunately, he's been limited to just 39 games over the past two seasons. The pitching staff, unfortunately, is dreadful. Scott Feldman will be the opening day starter, despite being 34 years old and coming off a season in which 35 of his 40 appearances were in relief. Brandon Finnegan was successful in his transition to the rotation last season, putting up a 3.98 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 31 starts. After that, though, things fall apart. Tim Adleman put up a 4.00 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 13 starts as a rookie last year, but he was also making his debut at 28 and has likely hit his ceiling. After those three, there are three top prospects looking to make an impact in 2017. Cody Reed made ten starts for the Reds, but his 7.36 ERA and 1.80 WHIP weren't particularly pretty. Robert Stephenson has a higher ceiling, though he didn't fare much better than Reed, putting up a 6.08 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over his eight starts. Then, there's Amir Garrett, the former St. John's basketball star who put up a 2.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 25 games (23 starts) at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville in 2016. The 6'5" lefty could make as big of or a bigger impact than Reed or Stephenson in 2017 and beyond. Two more starters, Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani, will open the season on the disabled list, though both could return soon. The bullpen is filled with starters-turned-relievers, led by Raisel Iglesias, Tony Cingrani, and Michael Lorenzen. As of 2014, all three of them were starters, but they all found success after transitioning to shorter stints. Drew Storen is a new addition, and though he's been one of the most inconsistent players in baseball during his career, when he's on, he's on. In 2014, he put up a 1.12 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, and he'll have stretches where he's nearly un-hittable. In 2016, he put up a 6.21 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over 38 appearances with the Blue Jays, but those numbers dropped to 3.44 and 0.87 during his 19 appearances with the Mariners. Despite making just nine appearances from 2012-2015, Blake Wood was a pleasant surprise in 2016 (3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), so he'll look to continue that success. Louis Coleman (4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) also came over on a minor league deal. We could (and most likely will) see prospects Wandy Peralta and Austin Brice in that bullpen, and starting pitching prospects in the high minors include Keury Mella, Rookie Davis, and Sal Romano; any of them could be converted to relief and pushed up to the majors. For sure, not a very impressive team, but at the very least, Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Jose Peraza will be fun to watch on offense, and the two big arms of Amir Garrett and Robert Stephenson are worth tracking as well.

Monday, March 27, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Major Additions: Daniel Hudson
Major Losses: Neftali Feliz, Sean Rodriguez, Matt Joyce, Jeff Locke
Strengths: Offense, Pitching Depth
Weaknesses: Top of Rotation, Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Alen Hansen, Austin Meadows, Dovydas Neverauskas, Edgar Santana

This is a team that will never run out of quality players. Up and down the lineup, they can hit, and the bench is as deep as any in baseball. The outfield has three big stars in Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco, and the back ups are just as exciting. Adam Frazier was called up to the majors last season, and he surprised everyone by slashing .301/.356/.411 (110 wRC+) over his 66 game debut. Top prospect Austin Meadows is knocking on the door, as the 21 year old reached AAA last season and blasted six home runs in 37 games. In the infield, veterans David Freese, Jordy Mercer, and Josh Harrison make up a solid set, even with Jung-Ho Kang possibly out for the season with visa issues most likely stemming from his third DUI. Josh Bell will start at first base, coming off a successful rookie season (.273/.368/.406, 113 wRC+ over 45 games). The 24 year old has shown excellent plate discipline throughout his career, showcased by having more walks (21) than strikeouts (19) in his debut season. If he can't hold down first base, there is still John Jaso, a consistent performer throughout his career if never a star. Backing those guys up will be the underrated Phil Gosselin and top prospect Alen Hansen. The speedy 24 year old has stolen 205 bases in his minor league career with consistent gap power. The rotation begins with Gerrit Cole, who was great from 2013-2015 but who took a step back in 2016 (3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP). Still just 26, Cole will look to return to ace form in 2017. Ivan Nova and Drew Hutchison are the other two veterans, but the young guys make this rotation interesting. Jameson Taillon, the second overall pick of the 2010 draft, finally cracked the big leagues in 2016 and didn't disappoint, putting up a 3.38 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 18 starts. Chad Kuhl, though a less heralded prospect, held his own in his 14 start rookie season, putting up a 4.20 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. The less established Tyler Glasnow may have the highest ceiling of all of three, evidenced by his outright dominance of the minor leagues (36-19, 2.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 645 strikeouts in 500 innings over his career). He reached the bigs in 2016, putting up a respectable 4.24 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over seven games (four starts). He'll battle with fellow prospects Steven Brault (4.86 ERA, 1.86 WHIP) and Trevor Williams (7.82 ERA, 1.89 WHIP). The bullpen may not be the strong point for this team in the absence of Mark Melancon, but Tony Watson should be able to hold down the relief ace role. Daniel Hudson will look to bounce back from a tough 2016 (5.22 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), and Juan Nicasio, Antonio Bastardo, and Jared Hughes are three established arms. Felipe Rivero and A.J. Schugel will look to further establish themselves in the majors, but there are some young arms to keep an eye on. Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb, Lithuanian national Dovydas Neverauskas, and flamethrower Edgar Santana could all make impacts in 2017. If anybody will challenge the Cubs in the Central, I think it will be this dynamic Pirates team.

2017 Season Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

Major Additions: Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecil, John Gant
Major Losses: Jaime Garcia, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss
Strengths: Rotation, Infield Depth
Weaknesses: Outfield depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, Harrison Bader, Carson Kelly

The Cardinals had a relatively quiet offseason, losing two aging power bats to free agency and signing a pair of new players to long deals. They also swung one trade, which for the purposes of this season, effectively replaces one starter with a younger, slightly worse one. Starting with the offense, Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss are gone, but in their place stands Dexter Fowler, the new leadoff man who set a career high with a .393 on-base percentage last season. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk will be the other two outfielders. Both had solid debut seasons in 2015, but while Piscotty played well in his sophomore 2016 (.273/.343/.457, 22 HR, 115 wRC+), Grichuk struggled a bit (.240/.289/.480, 24 HR, 102 wRC+). Piscotty is 26 and Grichuk is just 25, so this youthful outfield is one that will be fun to watch. Outside of the starting three, though, there isn't much. Jose Martinez got into a few games last year, and he'll try to get into a few more this year. After that, unless they play guys out of position, they'll have to reach into the minor leagues, where Harrison Bader could be an option. The 22 year old has done nothing but rake since he was drafted in the third round in 2015, reaching AAA in 2016 and likely to be ready this season. The infield, however, is the exact opposite story. Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Aledmys Diaz, and Jhonny Peralta make up the starting four for now, but there is plenty behind them. Matt Adams holds a career .455 slugging percentage, and he could force his way into playing time at first base, which would move Carpenter to third and Peralta to the bench. However, Peralta could also take over at shortstop if Diaz can't repeat his excellent rookie season (.300/.369/.510, 17 HR, 132 wRC+), but Peralta is also about to turn 35 and he is not a guarantee for production. No worries, because aside from Adams, there is also Jedd Gyorko, who set a career high by bashing 30 home runs in just 128 games last season. Greg Garcia is among the most patient players in the league, as he walked in an excellent 14.8% of his plate appearances last season to help put up an interesting .276/.393/.369 slash line (111 wRC+). If that's not enough, infield prospect Paul DeJong just hit 22 home runs for AA Springfield last season and could be knocking on the door soon. Of course, behind the plate, we have the great Yadier Molina, one of the top catchers of our era. On the mound, injuries have already bitten the St. Louis pitching staff, but this team is far from down and out. Top prospect Alex Reyes (1.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will miss the entire season with Tommy John surgery, while reliever Zach Duke (2.36 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) is out until at least September for the same reason. Another reliever, Tyler Lyons (3.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) will start the season on the disabled list after knee surgery. Still, the Cardinals have a plethora of arms. Carlos Martinez (3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) has blossomed into a true ace, while Adam Wainwright (4.62 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) and Michael Wacha (5.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) will try to bounce back from down seasons. Both are absolutely talented enough to do so, given that Wainwright has ranked in the top five in the NL in ERA three times (2009, 2010, 2014) and that Wacha is just 25 years old with a pair of really good seasons under his belt (2014 and 2015). After missing all of 2016 to Tommy John surgery, Lance Lynn will be back, complete with a career 3.37 ERA. Veteran Mike Leake rounds out the rotation, but in the case of injuries/ineffectiveness, we could see one of the Cardinals' young arms, such as Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, Marco Gonzales (also returning from TJ surgery), the newly acquired pair of John Gant and Chris Ellis, or even Jack Flaherty, who is farther off but is as talented as any prospect listed above, save for maybe Weaver. Manager Mike Matheny has also toyed with the idea of having former closer Trevor Rosenthal start a few games. Seung-Hwan Oh will be the relief ace, coming off a very successful transition to the MLB from Japan (1.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). The lefty duo of Kevin Siegrist (2.77 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Brett Cecil (3.93 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) will certainly come in handy. Matt Bowman transitioned from the rotation to the bullpen last season, and the results were spectacular given what was expected. After struggling as a starter in AAA in 2015 (5.53 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), he went straight to the majors as a reliever in 2016 and more than held his own (3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). Overall, this team isn't the Cubs, but they can absolutely compete in the NL Central.

Sunday, March 26, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Chicago Cubs

Major Additions: Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, Brett Anderson, Jon Jay, Jim Henderson, Brian Duensing
Major Losses: Aroldis Chapman, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Joe Smith, Trevor Cahill, David Ross
Strengths: Offense, Rotation
Weaknesses: Outfield depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Albert Almora, Jeimer Candelario, Carl Edwards Jr.

Last year's World Series Champions are back, and they absolutely have the pieces to repeat. They suffered some fairly heavy personnel losses, including relievers Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, Joe Smith, and Trevor Cahill, outfielders Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler, starter Jason Hammel, and catcher/grandfather David Ross. They added some of that pitching back, but they'll rely on what they have for the offense, which is pretty elite. Obviously, it starts with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, two of the best hitters in the game right now. Statcast has hinted that Addison Russell could be up for a breakout year, and he could smash his decent .238/.321/.417 slash line (95 wRC+) from last season. Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez round out the infield, giving them five starter-quality infielders for four positions. I'm assuming Zobrist will likely see some time in the outfield, which seems like the weakest part of this team. Jason Heyward is coming off the worst year of his career (.230/.306/.325, 72 wRC+), but it's easy to forget that he's still just 27 years old and there's no reason to think he won't rebound. Despite his horrible offensive numbers, his excellent defense made him worth 1.6 fWAR last year, which isn't half bad for a season many called a "disaster." Kyle Schwarber is back after missing almost all of 2016 with a knee injury, though it remains to be seen if he can consistently hit major league pitching. In his first full season, 2015, he slashed .330/.420/.621 through his first 31 games, but slashed just .178/.305/.364 over his final 38 games to finish at a solid, but not spectacular, .246/.355/.487 (132 wRC+). We'll see what the healthy 24 year old has in store for us this year. Also in that outfield is Albert Almora, the sixth overall pick of the 2012 draft who slashed .277/.308/.455 (101 wRC+) as a rookie last season and who will try to hold on to the starting center field spot. Jon Jay will be challenging him all season long, coming off a .291/.339/.389 (100 wRC+) season of his own. Joining Jay and Baez on that bench are Tommy La Stella, backup catcher Miguel Montero, and possibly prospects Jeimer Candelario, Virginia Tech product Mark Zagunis, and Chesny Young. Highly regarded utility prospect Ian Happ, often compared to Ben Zobrist, reached AA in 2016 and managed to slash a decent .262/.318/.415 in his first taste. Montero will back up starter Willson Contreras, who came out of nowhere to slash .282/.357/.488 (126 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 76 games as a rookie last year. On the mound, the Cubs have three aces, with Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), and Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) making up as fearsome a front three as any in baseball. John Lackey may be 38, but he's coming off a big season (11-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and clearly has some left in the tank. Jason Hammel is gone, but the Cubs have plenty of options to fill the fifth spot. The two most obvious are Mike Montgomery and Brett Anderson, the latter holding a career ERA of 3.86 but having shown a complete inability to stay healthy. Minor league options such as Rob Zastryzny, Alec Mills, Duane Underwood, and Ryan Williams could surface as well. In the bullpen, Wade Davis replaces Aroldis Chapman, and though he wasn't as excellent last season (1.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), he's coming off a two year stretch from 2014-2015 in which he put up a 0.97 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over 140 appearances, striking out 187 batters in 139.1 innings. Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop have both been steady in the back of that bullpen, and 25 year old Carl Edwards Jr. will look to finally take that big step forward. Koji Uehara, the Red Sox' closer from 2013-2015, and Brian Duensing, are two other newcomers who could make an impact. In my opinion, the Cubs aren't any better than they were last year, but they're not much worse, and they certainly have a shot at 100 wins and another World Series championship.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Major Additions: Michael Saunders, Howie Kendrick, Clay Buchholz, Pat Neshek, Joaquin Benoit, Chris Coghlan
Major Losses: Ryan Howard, Cody Asche, David Hernandez
Strengths: Pitching Depth
Weaknesses: Offensive Core, Top of Rotation
Potential Breakout Stars: Roman Quinn, J.P. Crawford, Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin

The Phillies are a very similar team to the Braves in that they're not contenders, but they've stockpiled a large quantity of young talent. As of now, there's no one central bat, but Maikel Franco will do his best to become that. He took a step back in his first full season in 2016, though he still blasted 25 home runs and struck out at a fairly low 16.8% rate, and he's still just 24 years old. Odubel Herrera has quietly been one of the better outfielders in baseball as a do-it-all player, as he slashed .291/.353/.419 (111 wRC+) with 41 stolen bases and 16 defensive runs saved over his two seasons in the majors, accumulating a total of 7.8 fWAR. That's puts him right up there with star outfielders George Springer (8.6 fWAR), Christian Yelich (6.8), Andrew McCutchen (6.5), Charlie Blackmon (6.0), and Jose Bautista (5.8) over that span. (This gives me another excuse to talk about how great Mike Trout is; he clocks in at 18.4 fWAR over that same span). Herrera and Franco will look to be a dynamic duo in that lineup. There are also three raw power bats in this lineup: the veteran Michael Saunders and younger players Tommy Joseph and catcher Cameron Rupp. Saunders is as inconsistent as they come, but he did set a career high with 24 home runs last season. Joseph came up as a rookie last year and slashed .257/.308/.505 with 21 home runs (113 wRC+) in 108 games, and Rupp broke out with a .252/.303/.447 line with 16 home runs (99 wRC+) which, for a catcher, isn't half bad. Second baseman Cesar Hernandez was also a quiet producer, slashing .294/.371/.393 with 17 stolen bases (108 wRC+), and his 4.4 fWAR in 2016 was actually higher than that of Nelson Cruz (4.2), Buster Posey (4.0), Edwin Encarnacion (3.9), and teammate Odubel Herrera (3.8). Currently in AAA is 22 year old top prospect J.P. Crawford, who has steadily performed at all levels but did not have an easy go at it in his first taste of AAA in 2016, slashing .244/.328/.318 (90 wRC+) over 87 games. Still, he was just 21, and his low strikeout rate (13.5%) and high walk rate (10.9%) show that he could be ready for the majors very soon. If he takes the step forward in 2017 that he is capable of, Crawford could be a steady producer in the Phillies' lineup from day one. On the mound, there is no ace, rather a slew of pitchers who might be good. There are veterans (Jeremy Hellickson, Clay Buchholz), young guys (Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez), and prospects/unproven guys (Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, Zach Eflin, Mark Appel, Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta). Not one of those guys can guarantee you a full season with an ERA under 4.00, but of the eleven names I mentioned, at least five should be able to provide quality innings on a regular basis. The bullpen is filled with guys you haven't heard of, aside from Joaquin Benoit. The thing with this bullpen though, is even though you haven't heard of them, it's not a half bad group. Jeanmar Gomez (4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) wasn't as bad as his numbers might say, as his ERA was actually 2.52 as late as August 13th and 3.29 as late as September 12th. Hector Neris (2.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), Pat Neshek (3.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP), Edubray Ramos (3.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), and Joely Rodriguez (2.79 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in small sample) may not jump off the page at you, but they won't be a liability. Overall, like the Braves, this is a team that won't be contending, but is certainly worth watching as they're young guys try to find their footing. Keep an eye on Crawford and outfielder Roman Quinn.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Atlanta Braves

Major Additions: Brandon Phillips, Jaime Garcia, Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Kurt Suzuki, John Danks
Major Losses: Mallex Smith, John Gant, Rob Whalen
Strengths: Depth, Youth
Weaknesses: Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, Ozzie Albies, Mauricio Cabrera, Lucas Sims, A.J. Minter

The have plenty of talent in their minor leagues, and though they aren't quite ready to contend this year, they added a massive amount of veteran talent. The six names listed under "Major Additions" combine for 76 years of major league experience, so there will be no shortage of a veteran presence on this otherwise very young ball club. Freddie Freeman is of course the center piece of the offense, though nobody else is a sure thing. Matt Kemp was great last year (.268/.304/.499, 109 wRC+), but he's 32 and likely won't repeat. Ender Inciarte and Adonis Garcia are both average bats, though Inciarte is a defensive wiz. The most interesting part of the field to watch this year will be the middle infield, with Dansby Swanson and Brandon Phillips forming a very intriguing double play combination. Swanson, an Atlanta native, will look to establish himself as the next face of the franchise, while top prospect Ozzie Albies will be hard at work at AAA Gwinnett during the first part of the season. Albies hit .248/.307/.351 (89 wRC+) over 56 games at Gwinnett in 2016, and while that's not great, we should keep in mind that he was 19 years old, 7.7 years younger than the average player in the league (per The Baseball Cube). The Braves are looking to promote him at some point during the season, making him the most likely candidate to be the first player in major league history to be younger than me, having been born five days after me in 1997. The Swanson/Albies double play combination would combine to be just 43 years old, younger than Bartolo Colon when you account for years and days. The bench on this team looks very impressive considering their overall lack of contender status, with Kurt Suzuki, Chase d'Arnaud, Sean Rodriguez (when he returns from his shoulder injury), highly regarded prospect Rio Ruiz, and super-utility man Jace Peterson. On the mound, the rotation is a mixture of young and old, with Jaime Garcia (age 30) being the only one of the seven potential starters listed on their depth chart to be between the ages of 27 and 41. Julio Teheran (26) has been fairly inconsistent during his major league career, but when he's on, he's one of the better pitchers in baseball. Bartolo Colon (43) and R.A. Dickey (42) may both be old men, but both can still bring it. Colon, who made his MLB debut in 1997, the same year Albies and I were born, was 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP last season, while Dickey put up a respectable 4.46 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP. You never know what you'll get out of Garcia, who is often injured but who can (sometimes) be really good when he was on the mound. 2015 was a case in point for this, when he put up a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 20 starts because of shoulder issues. He was healthy in 2016, but wasn't quite as good (4.67 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), so we'll have to see how he'll perform this year. A trio of young arms in Mike Foltynewicz (25), Matt Wisler (24), and Aaron Blair (24) should all get starts, especially after one or two of Colon, Dickey, and Garcia are traded in July. The bullpen is a little bit of a mess, led by 33 year old relief ace Jim Johnson, who can be good (3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP in 2016) or bad (7.09 ERA, 1.95 WHIP in 2014) depending on the year. Arodys Vizcaino racks up the strikeouts but struggles with consistency, as does Jose Ramirez. When it comes to lefties, Ian Krol pitched well last year, but injuries have kept Paco Rodriguez from making more than 20 appearances in any one season since his MLB career began in 2012, aside from his excellent 2013 (2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). The most intriguing arm in this bullpen belongs to 23 year old Mauricio Cabrera, who put up a 2.82 ERA and and a 1.30 WHIP as a rookie last year. His plus plus fastball easily touches triple digits, and he hit 103 MPH on the gun nine times last year, including three times in one at bat against Cleveland's Jose Ramirez on June 29th. If he can learn to harness his stuff, there's no ceiling. The Braves won't contend this year, but it will be exciting watching Swanson and Cabrera, as well as potential call-ups Albies, Ruiz, Lucas Sims, and A.J. Minter.

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Miami Marlins

Major Additions: Dan Straily, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler, Jeff Locke, Junichi Tazawa
Major Losses: Jose Fernandez, Mike Dunn, Fernando Rodney, Andrew Cashner
Strengths: Outfield, Bullpen
Weaknesses: Top of Rotation, Limited Potential to Outperform
Potential Breakout Stars: Jose Urena, Severino Gonzalez, Drew Steckenrider

If you read the above bullets closely, the Marlins' "Limited Potential to Outperform"  might strike out as a bit odd. I note this because many teams are blessed with a multitude of players who could have breakout seasons. You notice those young arms with the Mets (Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker), the Astros' big bats (Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, A.J. Reed), and so on in the "Potential Breakout Stars" sections. A team's ability to outperform expectations usually comes from unexpected players stepping up, such as Trea Turner spurring the Nationals last season, Jose Ramirez with the Indians, or Corey Seager with the Dodgers. With the Marlins, I don't see any players, aside from average young arms Jose Urena and Severino Gonzalez, who could really outperform expectations at all. However, just with what they have right now, the Marlins are much better than you think they are, even with the tragic loss of staff ace Jose Fernandez over the offseason. While he couldn't be replaced by one big arm in the rotation, Miami did go out and acquire multiple starters to try to collectively fill the void. Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke came over on free agent contracts, while they swung a trade for the Reds' Dan Straily, who was quietly really good last season (14-8, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). As a fly ball pitcher moving from a hitters' park to a pitchers' park, he could really be an asset this year. Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, and Tom Koehler return from last year's rotation, and youngsters Jose Urena and Justin Nicolino will battle with Locke to jump in in the case of injuries. Overall, no names really jump out at you the way Fernandez' did, but this rotation is not a liability. In the bullpen, behind closer A.J. Ramos, the Fish added Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa on free agent deals, and last year's surprising young trio of Kyle Barraclough (2.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Nick Wittgren (3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and Brian Ellington (2.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) is all back. David Phelps also thrived in his transition to mostly full time relief (2.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), making this a dangerous bullpen even if it lacks an Aroldis Chapman or an Andrew Miller. Moving to the offense, two hitters will really make this team go. Giancarlo Stanton has the most raw power of anybody in baseball, and his 95.1 MPH average exit velocity was second only to Nelson Cruz' 95.9 MPH (minimum 50 batted balls), according to Baseball Savant. A healthy Stanton is typically good for 4-6 fWAR, so it should surprise nobody that a healthy Stanton is very dangerous. However quietly, Christian Yelich stepped up in a big way last season, slashing .298/.376/.483 (130 wRC+) with 21 home runs and 38 doubles. The 25 year old is one of the best young outfielders in the game, and people should take notice. Marcell Ozuna rounds out one of baseball's strongest outfields, having slashed .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs (105 wRC+). The infield isn't quite as strong, featuring Justin Bour, Dee Gordon, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Martin Prado. Chantilly, Virginia native Justin Bour has a very respectable career 114 wRC+, and Dee Gordon was amazing in 2015 (.333/.359/.418, 114 wRC+, 58 SB), but Gordon was not nearly the same player in 2016 (.268/.305/.355, 72 wRC+), and it looks like 2015 was more of a PED-driven anomaly than anything else. Hechavarria, while having one of the coolest names in baseball, was among the worst hitting players in baseball last season (.236/.283/.311, 56 wRC+), but his excellent defense (9 defensive runs saved, according to Fielding Bible) helped him be worth 0.4 fWAR overall. A starter should have at least 1.5 to 2 fWAR, but at least it's not negative. Lastly, Martin Prado is 33, and while he hit .305/.359/.417 (109 wRC+), I wouldn't call it a given that he stays healthy and productive over a full season this year. Behind the plate is J.T. Realmuto, arguably baseball's most underrated catcher, who slashed .303/.343/.428 (107 wRC+) last season and who only just turned 26. Away from the Marlins' pitcher-friendly home park, that slash line jumped to .352/.399/.494 (141 wRC+). Lastly, I would be remiss not to mention the great Ichiro Suzuki as a fourth outfielder as he enters his age-43 season, his 16th in the majors, with 3030 hits. Derek Dietrich is another solid bench bat. Overall, this team lacks the ceiling of other teams, seeing that their top two prospects (pitchers Braxton Garrett and Tyler Kolek) combined to throw exactly 0 pitches in 2016, but they're still much better than you might think. Led by Stanton, Yelich, and Realmuto on offense and Ramos, Ziegler, and Barraclough in the bullpen, they could be dangerous in 2017.

Monday, March 20, 2017

2017 Season Preview: New York Mets

Major Additions: Ben Rowen
Major Losses: Bartolo Colon, James Loney, Logan Verrett, Jim Henderson, Jonathan Niese
Strengths: Rotation, Bench
Weaknesses: Offense
Potential Breakout Stars: Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Michael Conforto, Josh Smoker, T.J. Rivera

With the Mets, it's all about the rotation. The best rotation in baseball will hold teams to just a couple of runs per game, so if they hit at all, they should be able to win plenty of games. Unfortunately, the problem with the Mets is that there isn't much offense to go around. Yoenis Cespedes (.280/.354/.530, 134 wRC+) represents the only big time threat in the lineup, while guys like Neil Walker, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson will have to support Cespedes' bat. How Lucas Duda returns from his back injury will go a long way in determining where the Mets finish. He slashed .244/.352/.486 (132 wRC+) in 2015, but just .229/.302/.412 (91 wRC+) before he was shut down after 47 games in 2016. If he returns to his pre-injury form, there will be enough to offense to support Cespedes. If not, that job will fall to Michael Conforto, who was great in his 56 game rookie stint in 2015 (.270/.335/.506, 133 wRC+) but experienced the classic sophomore slump in 2016 (.220/.310/.414, 96 wRC+). If you're looking for positive signs on the 24 year old outfielder, it's that he improved his walk rate from 8.8% in 2015 to 10.3% in 2016. On the pessimist's side, his strikeout rate jumped from 20.1% to 25.6%, making him more of a True Outcome hitter (home runs, strikeouts, walks). Other question marks include Travis d'Arnaud and veteran David Wright, the face of the franchise who has played in just 75 games over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, Wright will miss the beginning of the season with shoulder issues, and he can't be counted on in the long run. The outfield situation is the most interesting with this team, as Cespedes, Granderson, and Bruce are currently slated to start, but Conforto and Juan Lagares are very solid for bench bats or, in Lagares' case, gloves. Joining Conforto and Lagares on this strong Mets' bench are Jose Reyes (who will start in Wright's absence), Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, and Team Israel star Ty Kelly. The rotation is where this team shines. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are two of the best young starters in baseball, followed by the lone veteran in the group, Matt Harvey. After dominating the National League from 2012-2015 (combined 2.53 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), he struggled in 2016 (4.86 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), but for a number three starter, that profile isn't too bad, especially considering he turns 28 right at the start of the season. After those first three, there's the trio of young arms in Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, and Seth Lugo. Matz is the most established of the three, having made 28 starts over two seasons and putting up a 3.16 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Gsellman and Lugo made their debuts last season, with both pitching very well. Both could be breakout stars, with Gsellman being just 23 and Lugo possessing a curveball that has broken Statcast records for spin rate. Lastly, there's Zack Wheeler, who has not pitched in the majors since 2014 but who is as talented as anybody in the rotation and is still just 26. Wheeler probably won't crack the rotation out of spring training, but when you have to leave two of Gsellman, Lugo, and Wheeler out of the rotation, that's a fantastic problem to have. In the bullpen, Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed return in the back end, and Hansel Robles and Fernando Salas will play supporting roles. Josh Edgin will look to bounce back from injury now that he's fully healthy, and young lefties (and former first round picks by teams other than the Mets) Sean Gilmartin and Josh Smoker will look to break out. Overall, it grades out as an average bullpen. The theme is clear here: the starting rotation will make them go, and whether they win or not will be contingent on the non-Yoenis Cespedes hitters stepping up.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Washington Nationals

Major Additions: Adam Eaton, Matt Wieters, Joe Blanton, Adam Lind, Vance Worley
Major Losses: Mark Melancon, Wilson Ramos, Danny Espinosa, Ben Revere, Matt Belisle, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez
Strengths: Offense, Rotation
Weaknesses: Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Koda Glover, Michael Taylor, Pedro Severino, Trevor Gott

The Nationals aren't returning as strong a team in 2017 as they had in 2016, but that 2016 team was pretty darn good. The Nationals still have a potent offense and starting rotation, with the only glaring hole being at the back of the bullpen. Starting with the offense, the trio of Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Trea Turner will look to do big things. After watching him in 2015, we all know what Harper is capable of, so let's just chart his down 2016 to bad BABIP luck (he hit just .264 on balls in play last year, well below his career average of .317) and hope he rebounds. Meanwhile, Murphy is coming off a career year (.347/.390/.595, 156 wRC+) that nearly netted him the NL MVP Award, and his new, fly ball-oriented approach in 2016 should make at least most of the production sustainable in 2017. Turner may regress a little bit after his monster rookie season (.342/.370/.567, 147 wRC+), but he'll be moving to his natural shortstop position and, like Murphy, atleast most of that production should be sustainable, even the power. We can't just say he had good BABIP luck, as his .388 mark exactly matched his minor league average over 268 games. Newcomer Adam Eaton and his .357 career on-base percentage will be a very welcome addition to the top of the lineup, just as Matt Wieters and his 17.8 career fWAR will be a welcome addition behind the plate. Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth are back, too, and though Werth may end up losing playing time to Michael Taylor if father time catches up with him, Rendon did have a nice bounce-back season last year. Lastly, Ryan Zimmerman may be coming off a horrible season (.218/.272/.370, 67 wRC+), but there is more room for optimism than you might think. Per Baseball Savant, Zimmerman's 93.7 MPH average exit velocity was the ninth highest in baseball, ahead of names like Mike Trout (91.7), Kris Bryant (89.8), and Josh Donaldson (93.1). The problem was that he had an extremely low average launch angle, meaning he was hitting the ball as hard as anybody in baseball, but he was pounding it straight into the ground. Murphy credits trying to hit the ball in the air more with for his success, and he has worked with Zimmerman to be cognizant of the fact that fly balls are better than ground balls. It has been an all-too-common misconception in the baseball world, but pounding the ball 100 MPH into the dirt does not create hits, and Zimmerman will try to change that approach in 2017. Taylor, Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, and Jose Lobaton will make up a solid core for the bench. On the mound, it all starts with the pair of aces in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Scherzer won the NL Cy Young Award, and Strasburg was in the running for the award as well before his elbow began bothering him in August. As of August 1st, Strasburg was 15-1 with a 2.63 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 20 starts, but the nagging injuries caused him to go 0-3 with a 12.86 ERA and a 2.29 WHIP over his final four starts. If he can stay healthy, Scherzer-Strasburg may be the best one-two punch in the league. Don't forget about Tanner Roark, who quietly put up a 2.83 ERA in over 200 innings. Gio Gonzalez, just as he is from start to start, is a wild card, but he is talented enough to bounce back from a rough 2016. It's easy to forget that Joe Ross is still just 23, and his big league numbers so far (3.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP over 35 games [32 starts]) show that he's ready to come into his own in 2017. In case things go awry in the rotation, there's A.J. Cole, Austin Voth, and possibly even Erick Fedde who could get starts. Vance Worley was added as a bullpen arm, but he could get spot starts as well. In the bullpen, Mark Melancon left a massive hole that is still very much there, but Shawn Kelley (2.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) was terrific last season and should take over the closer's role. Blake Treinen is tremendously talented with his wicked 97 MPH two seamer, but command and overall pitchability issues have kept him from realizing his true potential. He did put up a 2.28 ERA last year, but I think he can be better. Koda Glover, who as of 2015 was still the closer for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, has exceeded all expectations and will take on a larger role this year. Newcomer Joe Blanton will be a swiss army knife, and will likely share long relief duties with Sammy Solis. Trevor Gott and flamethrowing newcomer Enny Romero could have breakout years. Overall, the Nationals have holes, but they play in a weak division (for now) and should not be counted out as World Series contenders.

Saturday, March 18, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Oakland A's

Major Additions: Santiago Casilla, Trevor Plouffe, Matt Joyce, Rajai Davis
Major Losses: Danny Valencia
Strengths: Depth
Weaknesses: Offensive Core
Potential Breakout Stars: Jharel Cotton, Renato Nunez, Matt Olson, Bobby Wahl

The A's aren't expecting to compete, but they won't be short on personnel at any position this year. This balanced team has no truly standout players, every player at every position is at least capable, and that's all you can ask from a rebuilding team. Khris Davis and Marcus Semien bring the power after blasting 42 and 27 home runs, respectively, in their breakout seasons last year. Newcomer Matt Joyce was an on-base machine last year (.403 OBP), Rajai Davis can still fly (43 stolen bases at age 35 last year), and Stephen Vogt provides a more than adequate amount of offense for a catcher (.251/.305/.406, 93 wRC+). Ryon Healy came out of nowhere last season and slashed .305/.337/.524 (134 wRC+) over 72 games, and the big swinging corner infielder will look to repeat that this season. In terms of this year's Healy for the A's, you could look to Renato Nunez or Matt Olson, two power bats who earned brief call-ups last season. Though the two combined for an ugly .111/.256/.139 slash line over 20 games, Olson showed some promise by walking more times than he struck out (7 to 4), and Nunez clubbed 23 home runs for AAA Nashville. Both turn 23 within a week of each other right at the beginning of the season, and I'd bet on one of the two turning in a solid season. With Yonder Alonso, Jed Lowrie, and Trevor Plouffe filling out the infield, the bench is also very solid, with the aforementioned Nunez and Olson as well as Adam Rosales, who set a career high with 13 home runs last season, rookie Joey Wendle, and a pair of players looking for bounce-back seasons, Josh Phegley and Mark Canha. Other top prospects in the high minors include Franklin Barreto and Matt Chapman. Lastly, I didn't even realize this until I was writing this preview, but third string catcher Bruce Maxwell was quietly very productive last season. After slashing .321/.393/.539 over 60 games at AAA Nashville, he was called up to the big club and slashed .283/.337/.402 (103 wRC+) over 33 games. Not bad for a guy I've never heard of. In the rotation, Sonny Gray is just two years removed from a huge 2015 (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), but he struggled mightily last season (5.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), and a lat strain has already slowed the start of his season. If there's one reason for optimism, it's that he's just 27 and that 2016 looks much more like the exception, not the rule. Behind him are a pair of young hurlers who stepped up in 2016 in Kendall Graveman and Sean Manaea, and I believe Manaea has the chance to be even better this season. A couple of other arms are less proven in Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs, and Daniel Mengden, but I think Cotton in particular could have a breakout year in 2017, as he possesses one of the best changeups I've ever seen. Virginia Tech alum Jesse Hahn also has a good chance to get some starts, especially with Gray injured, but he has to find consistency. He's one of two former Hokies on the team, the other being bench-hopeful Chad Pinder. Four separate relievers have experience closing, including Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, John Axford, and newcomer Santiago Casilla, though all four are on the wrong side of 30. The bullpen isn't very deep, but there are plenty of high minors starters, including Daniel Gossett, Frankie Montas, Heath Fillmyer, and Paul Blackburn, who could be converted to relief to help out this season. Fireballing right handed reliever Bobby Wahl, capable of throwing 100 MPH, reached AAA last season. The two most electric arms in the system, belonging to A.J. Puk and Grant Holmes, likely won't be up until 2018. Overall, don't expect the A's to compete, but they are in a better position, as far as the major league team goes, than most rebuilding clubs. 

Friday, March 17, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

Major Additions: Luis Valbuena, Cameron Maybin, Ben Revere, Bud Norris, Martin Maldonado
Major Losses: C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver, Jhoulys Chacin
Strengths: Mike Trout, Defense
Weaknesses: Pitching
Potential Breakout Stars: Tyler Skaggs, Alex Meyer

The Angels are trying to contend this year, and while I think this is no worse than an average team, they're not contenders in my mind and they blew their whole farm system on trying to contend during the Mike Trout Era. That said, they do have Mike Trout himself, the best player in baseball who has never posted a wRC+ below 167 in any of his five full seasons, clocking in at 171 last year. For comparison, David Ortiz had the second highest wRC+ in baseball lat year at 163, and NL MVP Kris Bryant finished at 149. When your worst season is still better than everybody else, that's pretty good. Hitting behind Trout will be one of baseball's most underrated hitters, Kole Calhoun, who slashed .271/.348/.438 for a cool 118 wRC+. Albert Pujols may be 37, but he was also the greatest hitter of the 2000's, and he's hit 71 home runs over the past two seasons. There's also Yunel Escobar, C.J. Cron, Andrelton Simmons, and newcomers Cameron Maybin and Luis Valbuena. On the defensive side, don't expect many miscues. The up-the-middle defense of Simmons (SS), Danny Espinosa (2B), and Trout (CF) is the best in baseball, and Cameron Maybin (LF) and Ben Revere (backup OF) aren't half bad either. Where this team will struggle, though, is on the mound. Only one pitcher on this entire team, Ricky Nolasco, threw enough innings last season to even qualify for the ERA title (minimum 162 innings). Ace Garrett Richards was limited to just six starts last season, while the ultra-talented Tyler Skaggs has never thrown more than 113 MLB innings in any season, including just 49.2 over the past two seasons. Command artist Matt Shoemaker threw 160 innings last year and nearly qualified, so at least he, Richards, and Nolasco will be somewhat reliable. Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano are both recovering from Tommy John surgery. In the bullpen, veteran closer Huston Street was great in 2015 (3.18 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and horrendous in 2016 (6.45 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) so it's hard to tell how the 33 year old will pitch in 2017. Cam Bedrosian is the exact opposite of Street, as he has only pitched a few major league seasons and was terrible in 2015 (5.40 ERA, 1.77 WHIP) but dominated in 2016 (1.12 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). The Angels are very high on his chances to repeat. Other pieces to the question mark/bullpen are Andrew Bailey, who was excellent from 2009-2011 but hasn't been nearly as good since, Deolis Guerra, the longtime top prospect who finally made an impact last season (3.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) at 27 years old, Mike Morin, who has been overwhelmingly average since his great rookie season in 2014, and Jose Alvarez, the command artist who gives up a ton of hits but doesn't walk anybody. Overall, I'm pessimistic about the Angels' chances. I'm not a fan of the way this club has been managed, but when you have the best player of the 2000's (Pujols), the consensus best player of the 2010's (Trout), and arguably the best defensive player in the game (Simmons), anything is possible.

Thursday, March 16, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Seattle Mariners

Major Additions: Jean Segura, Drew Smyly, Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Ruiz, Marc Rzepczynski, Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson
Major Losses: Taijuan Walker, Nori Aoki, Seth Smith, Ketel Marte, Drew Storen, Adam Lind
Strengths: Offense, Rotation Depth
Weaknesses: Bullpen, Outfield
Potential Breakout Stars: Mitch Haniger, Dan Vogelbach, Guillermo Heredia, Andrew Moore

This isn't the pitching heavy, offensively fringy Mariners club you're used to seeing. Instead, there is a large amount of impact talent in the field. Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager return as the big three power bats, while last year's breakout star Jean Segura (.319/.368/.499, 126 wRC+) was acquired via trade. Segura is unlikely to repeat his big 2016 season, but anything close will give the Mariners four fearsome hitters at the top of their lineup. The catching core, led by Mike Zunino and veteran Carlos Ruiz, is also very solid. Zunino was the third overall pick of the 2012 draft, and while he is yet to tap into his big power at the major league level, consistently striking out in around 34% of his plate appearances, he's still just 25 and shouldn't be counted out. Mitch Haniger and Dan Vogelbach are two power bats that could provide big production this season. Haniger, acquired in the Segura trade, dominated AA and AAA (.321/.419/.581, 25 HR) before knocking five more home runs in his 34 game big league debut. Dan Vogelbach, acquired in a mid-season trade last year, dominated AAA (.292/.417/.505, 23 HR) and has the same chance as Haniger to break out. Danny Valencia is inconsistent, but he hit well last season (.287/.346/.446, 118 wRC+) and is an excellent option off the bench. The pitching staff, interestingly, is as international as any in baseball. The United States (Drew Smyly), Canada (James Paxton), Venezuela (Felix Hernandez), Mexico (Yovani Gallardo), Puerto Rico (Edwin Diaz), Cuba (Ariel Miranda), Japan (Hisashi Iwakuma), and even Brazil (Thyago Vieira) are all represented as pitchers on the big league depth chart. King Felix has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a long time, though he did have a down year last year (3.82 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). Hisashi Iwakuma is still dealing at 35 years old, James Paxton is as steady as anybody when healthy, and Drew Smyly is the exact opposite. Smyly has flashed dominance (2.60 ERA, 0.69 WHIP in April) while also struggling mightily at times (7.18 ERA, 1.72 WHIP in May). You never know what you're going to get with the 27 year old lefty, but he's as talented as anybody. Yovani Gallardo, Ariel Miranda, and Chris Heston are also wild cards, but you can bet at least one of them will be effective enough to hold down the fifth starter spot. Also rising fast through the minors is Andrew Moore, who has a 2.54 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 42 games (36 starts) in his brief minor league career thus far, reaching AA in 2016. It'll be tough for the 22 year old to crack the rotation, given that there are seven capable major league starters slotted in already, but don't count him out. He's joined by Max Povse, Chase De Jong, Dillon Overton, and Rob Whalen as high level prospects trying to crack the rotation. It may not feature any All Stars (aside from Hernandez), but the Mariners will never be scrambling for someone to hand the ball to to start games. In the bullpen, fireballing closer Edwin Diaz is back, as is Nick Vincent. Dan Altavilla and Evan Scribner were excellent in small samples (combined 0.34 ERA, 0.72 WHIP in 26.1 innings), so the Mariners will be excited to see what a full season entails for them, especially the 24 year old Altavilla. Marc Rzepczynski and Casey Fien are a pair of newcomers to the bullpen via free agency, though overall, if there is one way to beat Seattle, it's through the bullpen before Edwin Diaz comes in to pitch. 

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Texas Rangers

Major Additions: Mike Napoli, Carlos Gomez, Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, James Loney
Major Losses: Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Derek Holland, Mitch Moreland, Shawn Tolleson
Strengths: Offense, Upside
Weaknesses: Rotation depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Jose Leclerc, Yohander Mendez

The Texas Rangers could just as realistically win the AL West as they could finish under .500. There's so much upside here that they could end up being even better despite losing Ian Desmond, Carlos Beltran, Derek Holland, and Mitch Moreland, but there are question marks attached to most of the players on this roster. Like their AL West and cross-state counterparts, the Astros, this team's strength lies in its offense. It's not quite on the same level of Houston, but they can expect plenty of production. Jonathan Lucroy, Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus, newcomer Mike Napoli, and one of my all time favorite players, Adrian Beltre, form a very solid offensive core. From there, though, the questions, and potential upside, arise (no pun intended). Nomar Mazara was great as a rookie last year (.266/.320/.419, 94 wRC+), and Carlos Gomez ripped the cover off the ball in 33 games after his trade from Houston (.284/.362/.543, 139 wRC+). Both can absolutely continue that success, but that doesn't mean it's a given. Jurickson Profar is a player to watch; he's been in the majors since 2012 and a top prospect for even longer, so it's easy to forget that just turned 24 in February. With that kind of youth (plus the big performance from the World Baseball Classic), he's an easy pick for a breakout. Shin-Soo Choo battled injuries in 2016, but the 34 year old has a great track record and shouldn't be counted just yet. Then, of course, there's the big power bat of Joey Gallo, the 23 year old who has mashed 152 minor league home runs and seven major league home runs in five pro seasons, striking out 794 times along the way. If you're looking for the next Ichiro Suzuki, look elsewhere. Gallo can hit the ball to the moon, but he misses just as big as he hits it. His 76 MLB strikeouts account for a whopping 49.7% of his 153 plate appearances, and when you throw in his seven home runs and 20 walks, that's 67.3% of his plate appearances in which the fielders can just sit down and take a break. He could be the next Ryan Howard, swatting 40+ home runs per season, or he could be today's Ryan Howard, struggling to hit .220. On the mound, the team is even more boom or bust. Cole Hamels is a fine ace, but it's all uncertainty from there. When healthy, we all know that Yu Darvish is among the best pitchers in baseball, but he missed all of 2015 and made just 17 starts in 2016. I wouldn't be too worried about him, but we all know nothing's a guarantee with Tommy John surgery. Injuries have caused both Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin to be inconsistent over the past few seasons, but both are very talented. Meanwhile, Andrew Cashner is just a few years removed from excellent seasons in 2013 and 2014, but his 2016 was pretty forgettable. Almost as forgettable as Tyson Ross' season, as he made just one start due to shoulder issues. In the bullpen, Sam Dyson has been far more than the Rangers thought he would be when they traded for him in 2015, putting up a 2.03 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in Ranger blue and red. 2004 first overall pick Matt Bush finally reached the majors in 2016, and the results (2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) were everything the Rangers hoped for. Jeremy Jeffress (2.33 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) is another great arm in the back of the bullpen. However, nobody else is a sure thing. Tony Barnette was great (2.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), but he was also a rare 32 year old rookie. Keone Kela, Tanner Scheppers, Dario Alvarez, and Alex Claudio have had some success, but none have proven they can maintain it. Two arms to watch are 23 year old Jose Leclerc, who put up a 1.80 ERA as a rookie last year but also walked 13 batters in 15 innings, and 22 year old Yohander Mendez, one of baseball's better pitching prospects who reached the majors last season but who has yet to throw 120 innings in any single pro season since he was signed in 2012. Overall, it's boom or bust. There is a ton of talent, with Lucroy, Beltre, and Hamels to hold it together, but there are plenty of things that could go wrong. 

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Houston Astros

Major Additons: Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki, Charlie Morton
Major Losses: Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus, Pat Neshek, Doug Fister
Strengths: Offense, Youth, Bullpen
Weaknesses: Rotation
Potential Breakout Stars: Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, A.J. Reed, David Paulino, Michael Feliz

Look at the major additions. Compare them to the losses. Throw in that last year's roster was very young and all those potential breakout stars, and you have the team in the best position to challenge the Indians for the AL crown. In my opinion, this is the best offense in baseball. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are an All Star, potentially even MVP, double play combination up the middle, while 2015 first round pick Alex Bregman would be an early candidate for AL Rookie of the Year had he had 88 fewer plate appearances last season. George Springer, Nori Aoki, and Josh Reddick make for a quality outfield, and Carlos Beltran should get some reps out there as well when he's not DHing. That may be often, because the trade for Brian McCann will force Evan Gattis to DH as well. With Yulieski Gurriel, A.J. Reed, and Tyler White fighting for the first base job, you know you will get a quality bat there, and we still have said nothing on bench bats Preston Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, Colin Moran, Jake Marisnick, and Marwin Gonzalez. A plethora of hitting prospects, most notably Derek Fisher and Ramon Laureano, already populate the high minors and could be ready this year. There is so much depth to this lineup that they could bat 15 instead of nine and still have no problems. When one of Aoki, Beltran, Reddick, and Gattis will have to be on the bench at all times, you know you are doing something right. The rotation is a weak spot right now, but it doesn't have to be, especially if Dallas Keuchel (4.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) bounces back to his 2015 form that won the AL Cy Young Award (2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP). Collin McHugh could be anything between his 2014 (2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and his 2016 (4.34 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) self, and Charlie Morton and Mike Fiers are question marks of the same size. Two young hurlers to watch are Lance McCullers and Joe Musgrove. McCullers has missed time to injury, but he put up the same solid ERA, 3.22, in 2015 and 2016. Musgrove doesn't through very hard, but he has dominated the minors over the past three seasons (26-6, 2.43 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) and was solid in his MLB debut in 2016 (4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). In the bullpen, Ken Giles will hope to bounce back from a tough 2016 (4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but having Will Harris (2.25 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and Luke Gregerson (3.28 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) to support Giles is a big boost. Chris Devenski (2.16 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) was also a big surprise last season. However, after those four, James Hoyt and Tony Sipp come attached with question marks, and the rest of the bullpen lacks experience all together. A pair of top prospects, Michael Feliz and David Paulino, as well as lesser-known prospect Brady Rodgers, are currently slotted in the bullpen but could start if need be. Another top prospect, Jandel Gustave, could help support. Overall, the game plan for Houston is simple: hit and hit and hit, and pitch just enough that they can win slugfests. If Keuchel and McHugh bounce back, and McCullers and Musgrove continue their success, this could be a very, very dangerous team.

Monday, March 13, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Minnesota Twins

Major Additions: Jason Castro, Matt Belisle, Ryan Vogelsong
Major Losses: Kurt Suzuki, Trevor Plouffe, Tommy Milone
Strengths: Youth
Weaknesses: Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler

This Twins team is overwhelmingly average. Like the White Sox, they have a nice mix of young talent and veteran leadership, but they're missing the real centerpieces to contend. On offense, Brian Dozier crushed 22 home runs in a 36 game span last season, but otherwise throughout his career, he hasn't been that far above average (career 107 wRC+, including that 36 game stretch). Joe Mauer is certainly no longer the player that won the 2009 AL MVP. After Dozier and Mauer, there is the addition of Jason Castro, but the real promise for Minnesota lies in its youth. Byron Buxton (age 23) and Miguel Sano (23) are the first two names that come to mind, and both could be superstars. Buxton has the all around skill set, while Sano brings the big time power. Other guys could be valuable, too. Max Kepler (24) hit 17 home runs as a rookie last year, and his career .363 on-base percentage in the minor leagues bodes well for his future. Eddie Rosario (25) has quietly been very productive for the Twins, slashing .268/.292/.443 (92 wRC+), and any improvement in his plate discipline could go a long way. Jorge Polanco (23) also quietly slashed .282/.332/.424 (101 wRC+) last season. Kennys Vargas (26) has already blasted 111 home runs in his pro career, with 87 coming in the minors and 24 in the majors. The rotation isn't quite as youthful, but there is the one big name, Jose Berrios (22), who has ace potential down the road. Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson, and Phil Hughes will round out the rotation, and while that's not necessarily an All Star rotation, it should get the job done adequately. It should be noted that of the four, only Ervin Santana is not coming off a down-season. Tyler Duffey and/or prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Adalberto Mejia can fill in. The bullpen is one big question mark, as veteran closer Glen Perkins only pitched in two games last season and will likely start this one on the disabled list. Brandon Kintzler did a nice enough job filling in for Perkins (3.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), and the Twins will have to lean heavily on him again this year. Ryan Pressly (3.70 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), Taylor Rogers (3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), and Buddy Boshers (4.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) performed adequately last season, but the addition of Matt Belisle (1.76 ERA, 1.09 WHIP for Nationals) is a big, badly needed boost. Potential surprise breakout candidates in the 'pen include J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, and the sidearming Trevor Hildenberger. Overall, the synopsis is very similar to the White Sox; they have the veteran core of Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Perkins, and Hughes, but the much of this team is under 25 and that means they can go in any number of directions. The big three of Buxton, Sano, and Berrios could all break out, some could break out, or they could all struggle. So goes the story with 22 and 23 year olds. 

2017 Season Preview: Chicago White Sox

Major Additions: Derek Holland, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Yoan Moncada, Cody Asche
Major Losses: Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, John Danks, Alex Avila
Strengths: Youth, Lineup Balance
Weaknesses: Offensive Core, Bullpen
Potential Breakout Stars: Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Yoan Moncada, Matt Davidson, Michael Ynoa

By trading Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, the White Sox announced that they were in full rebuild mode, and the future looks extremely bright with the impact talent they got in return. Really, though this White Sox team has a lot of weaknesses (as would any rebuilding team), there is a lot for Chicago fans to look forward to in 2017, and that's all because of the youth on this team. Veterans Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier will obviously provide the power, and Melky Cabrera will continue to be a dynamic offensive threat, but everywhere else, there's youth. Tim Anderson (age 23) was long a polarizing prospect due to his terrible plate discipline, but by slashing .283/.306/.432 as a rookie in 2016, (95 wRC+), he may be on his way to answering those questions. Tyler Saladino (27) was a pleasant surprise last season as he slashed .282/.315/.409 (93 wRC+) and will line up across second base from Anderson. Avisail Garcia (25) has been in the majors for so long that we forget his age, but he has combined for 25 home runs in the past two seasons, while Charlie Tilson (24) will get his chance in center field. Catcher Omar Narvaez (25) was an intriguing breakout prospect last season, slashing .267/.350/.337 (88 wRC+) when he wasn't even supposed to make it to the majors. Then there's Matt Davidson (25), the former first round pick who has crushed 133 minor league home runs over eight seasons but whose massive strikeout numbers have kept him from producing at the major league level. One reason for optimism may be that his 26.4% strikeout rate at AAA Charlotte last season was his lowest in four seasons at the level. Of course, there's the newly acquired Yoan Moncada (21), but he's played just 53 games above High Class A. On the mound, we're all surprised that Jose Quintana is still with the team, but as long as he's in Chicago, he'll be a reliable ace in the absence of Chris Sale. Behind him, though, questions abound. Carlos Rodon has immense potential and has flashed it at times in the major leagues, but he's been unable to gain any semblance of consistency thus far, though he did just turn 24 in December. Miguel Gonzalez is a nice piece, but he turns 33 in May, and he hasn't topped 160 innings in any of the past three seasons. James Shields was one of the better pitchers in baseball from 2011-2014, but after a moderately strong 2015 season, he was absolutely terrible in his 22 starts for the White Sox (6.77 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, -1.4 fWAR). He's too good not to bounce back at least somewhat, but at 35 years old, his best days are clearly behind him. Lastly, Derek Holland was excellent from 2013-2014, but after knee and shoulder injuries in 2014, he's been unable to find his groove for any extended periods of time. Fortunately for prospect lovers, we could see newly acquired top prospects Lucas Giolito and/or Reynaldo Lopez in that rotation throughout the season, as well as Carson Fulmer, though they'll have to earn it. As surprising as Quintana's return is closer David Robertson's return, and though he hasn't been quite what the White Sox hoped for when they signed him to a four year deal in the 2014-2015 offseason, he's still a capable relief ace. Nate Jones was quietly excellent last season (2.29 ERA, 0.89 WHIP), but like with the rotation, question marks arise quickly after those two. Dan Jennings put up a solid 2.08 ERA last year, but his 3.38 FIP suggests that he may have been a bit lucky. Zach Putnam has reached 50 innings in a season just once, in 2014, and Jake Petricka is a health question mark. We could see young guys like Michael Ynoa,Tommy Kahnle, and even Zack Burdi step up, though. Overall, this team is filled with youth on offense and defense, which means they are likely to see plenty ups and downs this year. Not every young guy I talked about on offense is going to live up to expectations or even stick in the majors, and so this is sure to be a roller coaster of a season for Chicago. However, if you are obsessed with the future of the game like I am, this will be a fun team to follow, as Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Burdi, and Anderson, among others, have the potential to be stars for a long time.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Kansas City Royals

Major Additions: Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Brandon Moss, Jorge Soler, Nathan Karns
Major Losses: Yordano Ventura, Wade Davis, Kendrys Morales, Edinson Volquez, Dillon Gee
Strengths: Offensive Depth
Weaknesses: Bullpen, Rotation Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Jorge Soler, Raul Mondesi, Peter O'Brien, Hunter Dozier

The Royals team appears significantly downgraded from last season. The tragic loss of Yordano Ventura was a huge blow off the field, but it left them with a big hole in the rotation as well, especially with Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee departing too. They signed Jason Hammel and traded for Nathan Karns to take over for the three of them. Brandon Moss is also a downgrade from Kendrys Morales. However, the offense is the best attribute of this club. Veterans Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, and Salvador Perez once again form the core, and a healthy Moustakas will especially be a big boon. Moss slots in at DH in Morales' stead, and Jorge Soler is a welcome addition to the outfield. After three decent seasons that saw him slash a combined .258/.328/.434, a change of scenery might be just what he needs to break out in his age 25 season. Most impressive about this offense is the bench, which includes quite a few players who could have big seasons. Cheslor Cuthbert did a great job of filling in for Moustakas last season by slashing .274/.318/.413 with 12 home runs in 128 games, while Christian Colon is still just 27 after being drafted fourth overall back in 2010. Raul Mondesi had been on prospect charts for seemingly forever after making his minor league debut at just 16 years old in 2012, and he's still just 21 and already has 47 major league games under his belt. Billy Burns brings the speed in the outfield, and Paulo Orlando quietly slashed .302/.329/.405 as a fourth outfielder last season. A bench with Cuthbert, Colon, Mondesi, Burns, Orlando, and potential power hitting rookies Peter O'Brien and Hunter Dozier could be among the best in baseball. Where this team will struggle, however, is on the mound. Three pitchers that combined to start 82 of their 162 games last season in Ventura (32), Volquez (34), and Gee (14) will not be returning, replaced only by Hammel, Karns, and possibly Travis Wood. Hammel is a veteran big league starter with plenty of success, but Karns struggled last season (5.15 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) and is far from a sure thing to stick in the rotation all year. Wood was excellent as a reliever last season (2.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) but hasn't been a full time starter since 2014, where he wasn't nearly as good (5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP). If Wood earns a rotation spot instead of landing in the bullpen, he is going to have to translate his bullpen success to the rotation. Jason Vargas is another question mark in the rotation, as he is plenty talented and proven, but injuries have limited him to just twelve total starts over the past two seasons. There is a good chance prospects Eric Skoglund, Jake Junis, and/or, if we're really lucky, the flame-throwing Josh Staumont could be called up at some point to help out in this shallow rotation. There is room for optimism at the top of the rotation, as Ian Kennedy (3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) is as reliable a force as any, and Danny Duffy is coming off a big breakout season (3.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) which at one point had him in contention for the AL Cy Young Award. Had he not put up a 6.37 ERA over his final seven starts (inflating his season ERA from 2.66 to 3.51), he may very well have won it. In the bullpen, the Royals have two proven commodities in the back in Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, but not having Wade Davis will be a big negative impact. Brian Flynn falling off a barn will also be a setback. Wood could offset that somewhat, but that would be at the expense of not having him in the rotation. Bobby Parnell could be a help, but injuries have kept him from posting a full season since 2013. Kansas City will have to rely on the continued emergence of 25 year old Matt Strahm, who posted a 1.23 ERA as a rookie over 21 appearances after a call-up straight from AA. Overall, this team has as much offensive depth as any team in baseball, but in order to win, pretty much everything has to go right with the pitching staff. An injury to Duffy, Kennedy, Hammel, or Herrera could be the big blow to knock Kansas City to the bottom of the division.

Friday, March 10, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Detroit Tigers

Major Additions: Alex Avila, Omar Infante, Mikie Mahtook
Major Losses: Cameron Maybin, Erick Aybar, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Strengths: Rotation, Offensive Core
Weaknesses: Bullpen, Overall Depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Steven Moya, Matt Boyd, Victor Alcantara, Mikie Mahtook

The middle of the Tigers lineup is among the most fearsome in baseball, all centered around future first ballot Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera. Victor Martinez may be 38 years old, but after slashing .289/.351/.476 with 27 home runs last season, he doesn't look like he's going anywhere any time soon. J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, and Justin Upton all return as big bats as well, giving the Tigers five hitters not only capable of posting big numbers, but expected to, even in the pitchers' park the Tigers play in. Even Nick Castellanos had a breakout season last year, slashing .285/.331/.496 with 18 home runs as a 24 year old. A trio of young outfielders, Steven Moya, Mikie Mahtook, and JaCoby Jones, all have immense potential, and at least one of them is bound to break out in 2017. On the mound, Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer were excellent last season, and Jordan Zimmermann will hope to bounce back from a rough first season in the AL (4.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) to get back to what he is capable of. The last two spots come down to two young guys and two veterans. Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd were solid last season, but Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey both have well over 200 starts to their names. Whichever two they pick, it's nice having two other capable starters in the inevitable case of injury. In the bullpen, 35 year old Francisco Rodriguez is entering his 17th major league season, but he is showing no signs of slowing down. On the flip side, 26 year old Bruce Rondon hopefully has his off-the-field issues behind him, and he may very well be ready to fulfill his immense potential. Last season, he put up a 2.97 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 45/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings, and hopefully he'll be around for a full season this year. However, he doesn't have much of a track record to run off, and aside from Rodriguez, there isn't much of a track record anywhere in the bullpen. Alex Wilson is coming off a couple of nice seasons, but Mark Lowe has been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career, Justin Wilson has pitched just two full seasons, Kyle Ryan has just one, as does Blaine Hardy. Nobody else has ever pitched a full season, though Drew VerHagen, Buck Farmer, and Daniel Stumpf do have some MLB experience. This bullpen worries me, but if Victor Alcantara thrives in his conversion to relief, that could change things. Overall, unless some unexpected players step up, the middle of this lineup will have to hit its way to victory and hope the bullpen doesn't blow the leads maintained by Verlander, Fulmer, and Zimmermann.