Tuesday, March 28, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

Major Additions: Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Milone, Joba Chamberlain
Major Losses: Tyler Thornburg, Chris Carter, Martin Maldonado
Strengths: Bullpen
Weaknesses: Getting On Base
Potential Breakout Stars: Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Orlando Arcia, Lewis Brinson, Josh Hader

The Brewers are not a good team by any measures, but they could outperform some expectations. Ryan Braun will be the lone hitter in this lineup with considerable major league experience, and the outfielder is coming off his best season since before the scandals (.305/.365/.538, 30 HR, 133 wRC+). After that, it's all youth. Jonathan Villar represents the next most seasoned player, and he's coming off a breakout season where he slashed .285/.369/.457 (118 wRC+) and led the major leagues with 62 stolen bases, though his 18 times caught stealing also led the league. Travis Shaw is coming off a pair of good seasons in Boston, while catcher Jett Bandy hit eight home runs in 70 games for the Angels last season. Eric Thames who hit 21 home runs in a 181 game, two year stint in the majors from 2011-2012, has been a monster in South Korea and will look to bring that success back to the States. Lastly, we have four young hitters to look out for. Keon Broxton had a bit of a breakout last year, slashing .242/.354/.430 (109 wRC+) with 23 stolen bases in 75 games, but Statcast shows that he could be even better this year. Among players with at least 90 batted ball events last season, Broxton had the third highest average exit velocity at 95 MPH, behind only Nelson Cruz (95.9) and Giancarlo Stanton (95.1). If he can drop his 36.1% strikeout rate even a little bit, he could do big things for Milwaukee. Domingo Santana has been a heralded prospect for a long time now, and he continued his ascent last season with a .256/.345/.447 line (110 wRC+) last year. The 24 year old could be the big power bat needed to protect Braun in the lineup. Orlando Arcia wasn't terrific in his debut last season (.219/.273/.358, 64 wRC+), but he's still just 22 years old and has steadily performed at every minor league level so far. Lewis Brinson, widely considered Milwaukee's top prospect, reached AAA last season and was excellent in his 23 games there, slashing .382/.387/.618 (163 wRC+), though his overall 4.8% walk rate on the season was a bit troubling. The 22 year old will start back at AAA this season, but if he improves his plate discipline, he could break into the major leagues and do some damage. The pitching staff as a whole is actually better than you might think. Led by three starting pitchers a casual fan may have never heard of, it could almost be graded out as an average rotation. Junior Guerra finally reached the majors in 2015 at 30 years old, and in his first full season in 2016, he put up a 2.81 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 20 starts, earning himself the Opening Day start in 2017. Zach Davies has been excellent since his debut in 2015, putting up a 3.92 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 34 starts in his two years in the majors. Jimmy Nelson hasn't been as good as Guerra or Davies, but he has the experience, having put up back to back 30 start seasons with a combined 4.37 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Wily Peralta was great in 2014 (3.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but he hasn't been as great since, putting up a 4.84 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. There's also 33 year old Matt Garza, entering his twelfth major league season, though his Milwaukee career has generated very mixed results. On the outside looking in on the rotation will be Chase Anderson, Tommy Milone, and Taylor Jungmann at the major league level, as well as top prospect Josh Hader in the minors. Hader should be up at some point this season. Neftali Feliz leads an underrated bullpen, followed by Carlos Torres (2.73 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), Jacob Barnes (2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in limited action), Jhan Marinez (3.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), and Tyler Cravy (2.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in limited action). Younger guys like Corey Knebel (4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) and Brent Suter (3.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in limited action) will look to take the step forward as well, and Joba Chamberlain (2.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in limited action) is always a good name to have back there. The Brewers won't contend with the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals this year, but with guys like Broxton, Brinson, Santana, Arcia, Hader, Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff, and Mauricio Dubon all in the majors or high minors, plus Corey Ray rapidly moving up the ladder, they could contend soon.

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