Major Additions: Dan Straily, Edinson Volquez, Brad Ziegler, Jeff Locke, Junichi Tazawa
Major Losses: Jose Fernandez, Mike Dunn, Fernando Rodney, Andrew Cashner
Strengths: Outfield, Bullpen
Weaknesses: Top of Rotation, Limited Potential to Outperform
Potential Breakout Stars: Jose Urena, Severino Gonzalez, Drew Steckenrider
If you read the above bullets closely, the Marlins' "Limited Potential to Outperform" might strike out as a bit odd. I note this because many teams are blessed with a multitude of players who could have breakout seasons. You notice those young arms with the Mets (Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker), the Astros' big bats (Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, A.J. Reed), and so on in the "Potential Breakout Stars" sections. A team's ability to outperform expectations usually comes from unexpected players stepping up, such as Trea Turner spurring the Nationals last season, Jose Ramirez with the Indians, or Corey Seager with the Dodgers. With the Marlins, I don't see any players, aside from average young arms Jose Urena and Severino Gonzalez, who could really outperform expectations at all. However, just with what they have right now, the Marlins are much better than you think they are, even with the tragic loss of staff ace Jose Fernandez over the offseason. While he couldn't be replaced by one big arm in the rotation, Miami did go out and acquire multiple starters to try to collectively fill the void. Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke came over on free agent contracts, while they swung a trade for the Reds' Dan Straily, who was quietly really good last season (14-8, 3.76 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). As a fly ball pitcher moving from a hitters' park to a pitchers' park, he could really be an asset this year. Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, and Tom Koehler return from last year's rotation, and youngsters Jose Urena and Justin Nicolino will battle with Locke to jump in in the case of injuries. Overall, no names really jump out at you the way Fernandez' did, but this rotation is not a liability. In the bullpen, behind closer A.J. Ramos, the Fish added Brad Ziegler and Junichi Tazawa on free agent deals, and last year's surprising young trio of Kyle Barraclough (2.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), Nick Wittgren (3.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and Brian Ellington (2.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) is all back. David Phelps also thrived in his transition to mostly full time relief (2.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), making this a dangerous bullpen even if it lacks an Aroldis Chapman or an Andrew Miller. Moving to the offense, two hitters will really make this team go. Giancarlo Stanton has the most raw power of anybody in baseball, and his 95.1 MPH average exit velocity was second only to Nelson Cruz' 95.9 MPH (minimum 50 batted balls), according to Baseball Savant. A healthy Stanton is typically good for 4-6 fWAR, so it should surprise nobody that a healthy Stanton is very dangerous. However quietly, Christian Yelich stepped up in a big way last season, slashing .298/.376/.483 (130 wRC+) with 21 home runs and 38 doubles. The 25 year old is one of the best young outfielders in the game, and people should take notice. Marcell Ozuna rounds out one of baseball's strongest outfields, having slashed .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs (105 wRC+). The infield isn't quite as strong, featuring Justin Bour, Dee Gordon, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Martin Prado. Chantilly, Virginia native Justin Bour has a very respectable career 114 wRC+, and Dee Gordon was amazing in 2015 (.333/.359/.418, 114 wRC+, 58 SB), but Gordon was not nearly the same player in 2016 (.268/.305/.355, 72 wRC+), and it looks like 2015 was more of a PED-driven anomaly than anything else. Hechavarria, while having one of the coolest names in baseball, was among the worst hitting players in baseball last season (.236/.283/.311, 56 wRC+), but his excellent defense (9 defensive runs saved, according to Fielding Bible) helped him be worth 0.4 fWAR overall. A starter should have at least 1.5 to 2 fWAR, but at least it's not negative. Lastly, Martin Prado is 33, and while he hit .305/.359/.417 (109 wRC+), I wouldn't call it a given that he stays healthy and productive over a full season this year. Behind the plate is J.T. Realmuto, arguably baseball's most underrated catcher, who slashed .303/.343/.428 (107 wRC+) last season and who only just turned 26. Away from the Marlins' pitcher-friendly home park, that slash line jumped to .352/.399/.494 (141 wRC+). Lastly, I would be remiss not to mention the great Ichiro Suzuki as a fourth outfielder as he enters his age-43 season, his 16th in the majors, with 3030 hits. Derek Dietrich is another solid bench bat. Overall, this team lacks the ceiling of other teams, seeing that their top two prospects (pitchers Braxton Garrett and Tyler Kolek) combined to throw exactly 0 pitches in 2016, but they're still much better than you might think. Led by Stanton, Yelich, and Realmuto on offense and Ramos, Ziegler, and Barraclough in the bullpen, they could be dangerous in 2017.
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