Major Additions: Kendrys Morales, Joe Smith, J.P. Howell, Steve Pearce
Major Losses: Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Cecil, Michael Saunders, R.A. Dickey, Joaquin Benoit
Strengths: Offense, Rotation Starting Five
Weaknesses: Pitching depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Danny Barnes, Dalton Pompey, Rowdy Tellez, Lourdes Gourriel
Losing Edwin Encarnacion is no small deal, and the signing of Kendrys Morales doesn't do much more than soften the blow. With Michael Saunders gone and his rough offensive equivalent, Steve Pearce, replacing him (117 wRC+ for Saunders in 2016, 136 for Pearce but in a smaller sample), 2016's best offense in baseball has taken a step back. Jose Bautista (age 35), Troy Tulowitzki (32), and Russell Martin (34) are all a year older, and Justin Smoak (-0.1 fWAR in 2016) is questionable at first base. However, that's not to say this offense is something to worry about. Bautista and Tulowitzki are still great bats, Morales will pack a punch, and I still haven't gotten to my favorite hitter in the league, Josh Donaldson. The man has slashed .291/.387/.559 over his two seasons in Toronto, crushing 78 home runs, 63 doubles, and 7 triples while even swiping 13 bags in 14 attempts (21 in 22 attempts if you include his perfect 8 for 8 in 2014). He's one of the better defenders in baseball, but there are very few hitters who are more fun to watch than Josh Donaldson. Kevin Pillar will man center field, so don't expect any fly balls to drop in that area. They have three young hitters to keep an eye on: Dalton Pompey made his MLB debut back in 2014 at just 21 years old, and while he's only hit .222/.291/.385 since then, he's still just 24 and could still be a big part of the 2017 Blue Jays. Rowdy Tellez just slashed .297/.387/.530 at AA New Hampshire, and he could bring his big power to the majors this season. Lastly, Lourdes Gourriel is a big mystery, as he hasn't played a minor league game yet, but if the scouting reports hold true, he could sneak onto the major league roster at some point during the season and make a big impact. The starting rotation is dotted with big names throughout, starting with the pair of young guns, 24 year old Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and 25 year old Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). Veterans J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) have shown no signs of slowing down, and Francisco Liriano (8-13, 4.69 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) will look to bounce back after three strong seasons in Pittsburgh. However, if any of them get hurt or falter, there isn't much depth behind them. Mike Bolsinger was good in 2015 (6-6, 3.62 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but not so much in 2016 (1-4, 6.83 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), and Mat Latos (7-3, 4.89 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) is one big wild card. Gavin Floyd is another starting option, but he hasn't started a major league game since 2014. A couple of AA arms, Glenn Sparkman and Conner Greene, could be last ditch options. In the bullpen, losing Brett Cecil is a big blow, and Joaquin Benoit will also not be returning, but the Jays did replace Cecil with J.P. Howell and Benoit with Joe Smith. Roberto Osuna (2.68 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) was great in the ninth inning last season, and Joe Biagini (3.06 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) was a pleasant surprise as a rookie. Biagini could also start, but he hasn't started a game above AA. However, the rest of the bullpen, probably including the unproven Biagini, is filled with question marks. Aaron Loup was great from 2012-2014, but struggled more in 2015 and 2016. Ryan Tepera and Bo Schultz have been good, but at 29 and 31 years old and with 52 and 51 major league games under their belts, respectively, they're far from sure things. Jason Grilli just turned 40, but there is one arm that really intrigues me. Danny Barnes was as dominant as you could be in the minors this season, putting up a 0.73 ERA and a 0.47 WHIP (!!) at AA and AAA, striking out 77 batters and walking just six (!) in 61.1 innings. Upon his call to the majors, the then-26 year old put up a respectable 3.95 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 12 appearances, striking out 14 and walking five in 13.2 innings. Watch him this season. Overall, this is a Blue Jays team that looks like it has taken a step back from last season, and while it addressed some needs with the additions of Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, J.P. Howell, and Joe Smith, losing Edwin Encarnacion and Brett Cecil will be big enough that I think they will ultimately be kept out of the playoffs.
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