Sunday, March 26, 2017

2017 Season Preview: Chicago Cubs

Major Additions: Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, Brett Anderson, Jon Jay, Jim Henderson, Brian Duensing
Major Losses: Aroldis Chapman, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Jason Hammel, Travis Wood, Joe Smith, Trevor Cahill, David Ross
Strengths: Offense, Rotation
Weaknesses: Outfield depth
Potential Breakout Stars: Albert Almora, Jeimer Candelario, Carl Edwards Jr.

Last year's World Series Champions are back, and they absolutely have the pieces to repeat. They suffered some fairly heavy personnel losses, including relievers Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, Joe Smith, and Trevor Cahill, outfielders Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler, starter Jason Hammel, and catcher/grandfather David Ross. They added some of that pitching back, but they'll rely on what they have for the offense, which is pretty elite. Obviously, it starts with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, two of the best hitters in the game right now. Statcast has hinted that Addison Russell could be up for a breakout year, and he could smash his decent .238/.321/.417 slash line (95 wRC+) from last season. Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez round out the infield, giving them five starter-quality infielders for four positions. I'm assuming Zobrist will likely see some time in the outfield, which seems like the weakest part of this team. Jason Heyward is coming off the worst year of his career (.230/.306/.325, 72 wRC+), but it's easy to forget that he's still just 27 years old and there's no reason to think he won't rebound. Despite his horrible offensive numbers, his excellent defense made him worth 1.6 fWAR last year, which isn't half bad for a season many called a "disaster." Kyle Schwarber is back after missing almost all of 2016 with a knee injury, though it remains to be seen if he can consistently hit major league pitching. In his first full season, 2015, he slashed .330/.420/.621 through his first 31 games, but slashed just .178/.305/.364 over his final 38 games to finish at a solid, but not spectacular, .246/.355/.487 (132 wRC+). We'll see what the healthy 24 year old has in store for us this year. Also in that outfield is Albert Almora, the sixth overall pick of the 2012 draft who slashed .277/.308/.455 (101 wRC+) as a rookie last season and who will try to hold on to the starting center field spot. Jon Jay will be challenging him all season long, coming off a .291/.339/.389 (100 wRC+) season of his own. Joining Jay and Baez on that bench are Tommy La Stella, backup catcher Miguel Montero, and possibly prospects Jeimer Candelario, Virginia Tech product Mark Zagunis, and Chesny Young. Highly regarded utility prospect Ian Happ, often compared to Ben Zobrist, reached AA in 2016 and managed to slash a decent .262/.318/.415 in his first taste. Montero will back up starter Willson Contreras, who came out of nowhere to slash .282/.357/.488 (126 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 76 games as a rookie last year. On the mound, the Cubs have three aces, with Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA, 1.02 WHIP), Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), and Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) making up as fearsome a front three as any in baseball. John Lackey may be 38, but he's coming off a big season (11-8, 3.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) and clearly has some left in the tank. Jason Hammel is gone, but the Cubs have plenty of options to fill the fifth spot. The two most obvious are Mike Montgomery and Brett Anderson, the latter holding a career ERA of 3.86 but having shown a complete inability to stay healthy. Minor league options such as Rob Zastryzny, Alec Mills, Duane Underwood, and Ryan Williams could surface as well. In the bullpen, Wade Davis replaces Aroldis Chapman, and though he wasn't as excellent last season (1.87 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), he's coming off a two year stretch from 2014-2015 in which he put up a 0.97 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP over 140 appearances, striking out 187 batters in 139.1 innings. Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop have both been steady in the back of that bullpen, and 25 year old Carl Edwards Jr. will look to finally take that big step forward. Koji Uehara, the Red Sox' closer from 2013-2015, and Brian Duensing, are two other newcomers who could make an impact. In my opinion, the Cubs aren't any better than they were last year, but they're not much worse, and they certainly have a shot at 100 wins and another World Series championship.

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