2021 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers deployed a really interesting draft strategy, going with exclusively established performers early on in their first six picks. In doing so, they definitely leaned more on floor than ceiling, going the low-risk route and hoping to get a solid group of major leaguers rather than cashing the chips in for one star. The script flipped on day three, however, when they went after numerous high end prep talents they thought thought they might maybe could sign with leftover money from second rounder Russell Smith ($440,000 below slot) and ninth rounder Brannon Jordan ($107,400 below slot), among others. They couldn't quite reel in Roc Riggio, Hunter Hollan, or Will Rogers, but they did land Caden Vire, Quinton Low, and Jace Avina, significantly adding to the upside in their class. My favorite pick was pretty easily Sal Frelick in the first round, because I thought he was a legitimate top ten talent, while I also liked Alex Binelas in the third round and simply the fact that they were able to land the trio of Vire, Low, and Avina on day three.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-15: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College. My rank: #7.
I love this pick for the Brewers. Sal Frelick was legitimately the second best college position player in this draft in my opinion and as a Nationals fan, I would have been very happy if we took him four picks sooner at #11. He'll follow in the footsteps of Garrett Mitchell as an ultra-athletic power conference outfielder, though his skill set is a bit different. In a year where many college bats underwhelmed, Frelick got off to a red hot start and maintained it all season long, slashing .359/.443/.559 with six home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. He's a plus hitter who can adeptly manipulate the barrel to make contact with virtually anything thrown at him, whether that's velocity or offspeed or whether it's in the zone or out. At times, he's willing to sacrifice his "A" swing in order to get the barrel to the ball, which saps his power, but it also helped him strike out in just 12.3% of his plate appearances this spring against very good pitching. Undersized at 5'9", there's plenty of twitchy strength to project on so when he does get good pitches to hit, he can still take you deep and projects for at least 10-15 home runs per season. Once on base, the Boston-area native shows plus speed that enabled him to steal 38 bases in 102 career games at Boston College, and that also serves him on defense, where his hustle and all out style of play should make him a plus defender in center field. Frelick gets high marks for his work ethic and enthusiasm for the game, giving him a chance to become a fan favorite in Milwaukee. I really like this kid and I think he will maximize his skill set, with the ceiling of a Denard Span type but with more power. He signed for $4 million, which was about $110,000 above slot value, and is slashing .467/.529/.667 through four games in the ACL.

CBA-33: 2B Tyler Black, Wright State. My rank: #45.
Tyler Black has been a favorite of the Midwest area scouting community for a while now, and a strong 2021 season pushed him into the national spotlight. He was exceptional as a freshman at Wright State (.348/.465/.614) but never got a chance to catch his stride in his shortened sophomore season (.239/.340/.370), then put it all together with a massive junior season by slashing .383/.496/.683 with 13 home runs and a 25/39 strikeout to walk ratio. Though Wright State doesn't face the toughest in-conference competition as a member of the Horizon League, he doubled off of Kumar Rocker on Opening Day and picked up five hits (including three home runs) in nine at bats in the Knoxville regional against Duke and Tennessee. Black is a professional hitter through and through, showing elite plate discipline and feel for the barrel that enable him to draw a ton of walks (16.7% career rate) and rarely strike out (10.1%), boding well for his transition to pro baseball. Not nearly the athlete that Frelick is, Black still taps above average game power because he is so adept at choosing pitches and executing on them when he gets them. To me, it's a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, and although he's an average runner, he's a good baserunner that went eleven for twelve in stolen base attempts this spring. The Toronto native won't provide a ton of value defensively as an adequate second baseman, but the bat is plenty good enough to profile every day. Adding to Black's allure is age, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. He signed right at slot value for roughly $2.2 million.

2-51: LHP Russell Smith, Texas Christian. My rank: #202.
Okay, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, but we can still draw some positives. Russell Smith has been an extremely consistent performer at TCU for three years now, posting a 3.51 ERA and a 163/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 career innings, including marks of 3.83 and 101/20 in 82.1 innings this season. A massive, 6'9" lefty, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 95, with the pitch playing up because of his feel for it. He can sink it when he needs to like a traditional tall pitcher, but unlike many others his size, he also puts nice ride on the pitch when he wants to, giving hitters multiple looks. The North Texas native adds a slider and a changeup, with both grading out as average based on pure movement but the latter playing up to at least above average again due to his feel for the pitch. With a clean, relatively low effort delivery, he pours in strikes and locates well within the zone, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the lack of a swing and miss breaking ball. The Brewers likely see him as a safe bet #4 starter whose feel for pitching will carry him through the minors relatively quickly, though he will turn 23 in September and was the oldest player drafted at the time he heard his name called in the second round. Smith signed for $1 million, which was roughly $440,000 below slot value and enabled the Brewers to reel in a couple bit overslot signings on day three.

3-86: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville. My rank: #64.
I mentioned during Sal Frelick's review that many other top college bats underwhelmed this spring, and while I specifically had Alex Binelas (and quite a few others) in mind when I wrote that, the Brewers are getting really nice buy-low value here in the third round. A product of Oak Creek High School in the southern Milwaukee suburbs (hometown pick!), Binelas had an exceptional freshman year at Louisville by slashing .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, then injured his hand in the second game of his sophomore season and didn't get back on the field before the shutdown. 2021 began as a disaster, as he picked up just two hits in his first eight games and was still hitting just .145 in mid-March. He heated up later in the season and the end result was respectable: .256/.348/.621, 19 HR, 51/21 K/BB. However, it was not enough to recover his stock from that early season slump, which could be a blessing in disguise for the Brewers since they were able to get him in the third round. Binelas shows plus raw power from the left side, a product of a lightning quick left handed swing and tremendous strength that enables him to absolutely sting the ball with elite exit velocities to all fields. He's gotten to that power consistently in games aside from that slump, blasting 33 home runs in 111 games at Louisville and at one point homering in four straight against Clemson, Vanderbilt, and Duke in early May. He also had a three homer game against Clemson in the ACC tournament. The Wisconsinite's problem, however, lies in his plate discipline. He'll likely always be a streaky hitter that struggles with swing and miss, meaning there's a chance he's never more than a power hitting bench/platoon bat. A third baseman for much of his Louisville career, he always looked choppy over there and moved to first base in 2021. In the shifting era, it's unlikely he moves back over to the hot corner without some serious improvements, and he may be best served as an adequate corner outfielder. There's a high ceiling here if Binelas can be "on" more than he's "off," with the chance for Joey Gallo-type numbers. He signed for $700,000, which was $300 over slot value. Maybe he used that money to take his family out to a fancy dinner or something. Through four games in the ACL, he has three hits in eleven at bats in addition to four walks.

4-116: RHP Logan Henderson, McLennan JC [TX]. My rank: #124.
Here's an interesting one. The industry was pretty split on Logan Henderson, who ranked #105 on the BA 500 but just #234 on MLB Pipeline and #268 at Prospects Live. I was definitely in the optimistic boat, so I like this pick. He was absolute money for McLennan JC in Waco, Texas this spring, putting up a 1.66 ERA and a 169/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings, playing a leading role as the Highlanders won the JUCO World Series. The undersized 5'11" righty lacks much projection, but his combination of youth, pitchability, and now-stuff makes him a very intriguing prospect nonetheless. His fastball has ticked up into the low 90's lately, getting up to around 94-95 at its best, and its high spin rates make it play almost like an "invisiball." He adds a distinct slider and curveball, neither of which are true swing and miss pitches but which get the job done, and his best pitch is a plus changeup. Henderson commands the zone extremely well, and given that he only turned 19 in March, that's extra impressive. There may not be a ton of ceiling here but he has as good a chance as any teenager to work his way into a big league rotation. The Houston-area native signed for slot value at $497,500, but unlike Alex Binelas I guess he couldn't convince Milwaukee to round up.

5-147: SS Ethan Murray, Duke. My rank: #197.
Ethan Murray is simply a ballplayer who lacks a carrying tool, but does a lot of things well. He's a career .292/.392/.432 hitter at Duke who looked like his usual self in 2021, slashing .297/.397/.440 with three home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. Murray has a high baseball IQ that has enabled him to be extremely consistent, managing the strike zone well and finding the barrel more often than not. Though he'll never be a big power threat, he does hit the ball hard and should continue to find holes and gaps, giving him plenty of extra base projection. There's a similar story on defense, where he makes all the routine plays at shortstop but lacks the athleticism to cut off balls deep in the hole and save runs. For that reason, the Charlottesville-area native has a pretty clear utility infield projection, someone who can tap 5-10 home runs per season and get on base but likely not earn any All Star appearances. If he does hit just enough to play every day, the glove would look really good at second base. He signed for $272,500, which was $95,900 below slot value, and has two hits in seven at bats so far in the ACL.

10-297: C Wes Clarke, South Carolina. My rank: #222.
The Brewers went for power to close out day two. Wes Clarke blasted eight home runs in his first six games in 2021 against Dayton, Winthrop, and Clemson, then kept mashing home runs all season long and finished with a .271/.428/.663 line, 23 home runs, and a 73/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. If you got back to 2020, he has 31 home runs in 73 games, and the 23 this year tied for the NCAA lead with Reds competitive balance pick and Florida State catcher Matheu Nelson. Clarke packs a ton of strength into his 6'2", 235 pound frame, consistently punishing mistake pitches while being perfectly willing to take his walks if pitchers don't come to him. That's the One Big Positive. The Lynchburg, Virginia-area native swings and misses a lot, and while he is battle tested against SEC pitching, pro ball might still be a bit of a transition for him. He was drafted as a catcher, but that might be a stretch and first base is the more likely scenario, where his well below average speed likely keeps him from being anything more than an average defender there. Clarke reminds me a little bit of a discount Aaron Sabato. He signed for $75,000, which was $70,500 below slot value, and has two hits in eight at bats (including a home run) so far in the ACL.

12-357: LHP Caden Vire, Skyview HS [WA]. Unranked.
The Brewers went a little crazy on day three, and their biggest bonus of the day went to Caden Vire. He's a complete and total wild card, one who might never make it past A ball but who could be the next best Brewers pitching prospect. The 6'6" lefty is rail thin, with a ton of room to add strength, and the fact that he doesn't even turn 18 until September bodes even better for his physical development. Vire has a ton of moving parts in his high effort delivery, which will likely need a complete overhaul, and it seriously impacts his command as he tends to sail pitches up and to his arm side or yank them at right handers' feet. The Portland-area native sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, just scraping 90, but he puts a lot of spin on the ball and figures to add significant velocity anyways. His slider requires projection as well but it comes with some late bite, missing plenty of bats when it's located. The Brewers have their work cut out for them and we shouldn't expect Vire in the big leagues any time soon, but if they get it right, he has a chance to be a big piece of their future rotation. Committed to Arizona State, he instead signed for $497,500, of which $372,500 counts against the Brewers' bonus pool.

14-417: OF Jace Avina, Spanish Springs HS [NV]. My rank: #230.
As with Caden Vire, the Brewers are hoping to strike gold with Jace Avina, an extremely talented prep bat who is unproven against better competition. He stands out for his athleticism around the diamond, with above average speed and a strong arm giving him a chance to play virtually any position. The glove might be a bit choppy for the infield and since the Brewers announced him as an outfielder, they may just stick him straight in the grass and let him develop there. At the plate, he's hit over power, which makes it extra difficult to project on him given his circumstances. Avina wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit and played his high school ball in the Reno area, where the competition isn't the greatest, so his strong hit tool is pretty untested. He does show a quick bat from the right side and hits the ball hard consistently, and if he adds a bit of loft to his relatively flat swing, he has a chance for average power. It's the kind of player that could make it to campus and quickly increase his stock when his performance doesn't drop off against better competition, and the Brewers believed that would have happened at Nevada so they are buying him out early. Avina signed for $255,900, of which $130,900 counts against the bonus pool.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (final update)

The draft is almost here, so I'll be updating this story one more time. The Nationals pick at #11 and have been almost exclusively tied to arms, so that will be the focus here, but I do see three to four bats that could make sense if the Nationals want to buck some trends (and make me happy). 

First, I'll give my opinion on who I think the Nationals should draft. There are six players who I would give virtually no chance of reaching the Nationals, and those are high school shortstops Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, and Kahlil Watson, in addition to Vanderbilt righthander Jack Leiter and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. If one of those falls to #11, the Nationals should 100% snatch one up if the signing bonus is remotely reasonable. There's also Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, who is very unlikely to be available at #11, but he seems to have at least a sliver of a chance of getting down there and I absolutely don't see the Nationals passing him up if he's available. I'd go for it in that case as well. Jackson Jobe seems to be in the same boat, but prep righthanders tend to slide in the draft and if he's available with a remotely reasonable signing bonus, again I think the Nationals should pounce. In the event that all eight are gone, which is likely, there are two college bats I think the Nationals should focus on. I'd take Boston College outfielder Sal Frelick out of the remaining players, and if he's gone along with the other eight, I'd go with UCLA shortstop Matt McLain. Then in the unlikely scenario that those are the top ten picks, I'm a bit lost because I think there's a slight break in the quality of players, so I would either pick Will Bednar or just grab Gunnar Hoglund, sign him below slot, then overspend at pick #47. Below is what would be my board if I were the Nationals picking at #11, not what I think their board is, color coded by how likely they are to be available. Red is definitely not, orange is probably not, yellow is 50-50, and green is most likely.

Marcelo Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis, Brady House, Kahlil Watson, Kumar Rocker, Jackson Jobe, Sal Frelick, Matt McLain, Will Bednar, Gunnar Hoglund

Without further introduction, here are the ten players I think the Nationals are most likely to end up with at #11, ordered by likelihood. I'm not a reporter, so these are more just guesses than anything else. Slot value is just over $4.54 million and the Nationals' overall bonus pool for their top ten rounds is $8.77 million.

1. RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS, OK
As I said in the previous paragraph, I don't think Jackson Jobe will make it out of the top ten, as he's getting interest as high as #3 to the Tigers. However, in the event that he does, I can absolutely see Mike Rizzo smashing Jobe's name into the keyboard or doing whatever he does to make his picks with extra zeal. The Oklahoma City product is relatively new to pitching, but his name has been rocketing up boards ever since his dominant summer a year ago. His fastball is now sitting comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has touched 98, but that's not his main weapon. Jobe's slider is arguably the best breaking ball in the entire high school class, coming in with absurd spin rates that cause it to shoot down and away from righties or into lefties at the last second. That feel for spin translates to his curveball, which is a distinct and above average pitch in its own right, and he possesses one of the better changeups in the high school class as well. Together with a clean delivery and notable athleticism, he consistently deals strikes and really has all the ingredients to be an impact starting pitcher. Aside from his demographic, that of an inherently risky high school righthander, Jobe only has one thing working against him – age. He'll turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, making him one of the older players in the class, but everything else is so good that that should not be a factor. He'll likely demand an enormous signing bonus, probably the highest on this list of ten, to keep from attending Mississippi, where he'll be draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2023.

2. RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2021 stats: 7-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 137/44 K/BB in 113.2 IP.
While he is getting some looks in the back of the top ten and could end up in Colorado at #8 or Los Angeles at #9, there is a very good shot that Ty Madden is available for the Nationals at #11. The unquestioned ace of the most complete pitching staff in the country (sorry, Vanderbilt), Madden is everything the Nationals love – a big, durable, consistent performer who has the look of a mid-rotation starter. He combines arm strength with pitchability, creating the type of pitcher that does not grow on trees. Madden's fastball comes in with low to mid 90's velocity, getting up to 99 at times early in games, and he adds a potentially plus slider that plays very well off his fastball. His changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but when it's on, it gives him a third potentially above average pitch, which will help him pitch deep into games. He commands all three pitches very well, pounding the bottom of the strike zone and missing bats in bunches. If there's anything to nitpick with the Houston-area native, it's something called his VAA, or vertical approach angle. Because the 6'3" righty comes from such a high release point, everything he throws has significant downward plane, which plays very well around hitters knees and below. However, he has gotten hit harder when he leaves pitches up, and in today's launch angle-conscious game that has more hitters going for high VBA's – vertical barrel angles, – it will be especially difficult for him to be effective in that part of the zone in pro ball. Fortunately, his command means that he won't miss his spots often, and his velocity gives him some margin for error.

3. RHP Sam Bachman, Miami [OH]
2021 stats: 4-4, 1.81 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 93/17 K/BB in 59.2 IP.
Sam Bachman's draft outlook is probably about the same as Madden's with some teams interested in the back of the top ten but a good chance of reaching #11. If both he and Madden are available for the Nationals, it will be an interesting decision for Rizzo, as both pitchers seem to fit his models but for very different reasons. While Madden is durable and consistent, Bachman is more of a power arm that comes with significant durability questions, but we know Rizzo has never been one to shy away from injured or potentially-injury prone arms. Bachman's raw stuff is elite, perhaps the best in the entire class outside of the Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. The 6'1" righty deals regularly in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 101, but it's not just the velocity that makes it a special pitch. He also comes from an extremely low release point while still maintaining a three quarters arm slot, putting tremendous ride on the pitch that makes it play exceptionally well up in the zone. And with his velocity, even when he misses over the plate, it's tough to square up. Bachman also adds a plus slider that breaks late and tight, playing well off the fastball. As with Madden, his changeup has been a bit less consistent, but it too flashes above average and like Madden, he could have three plus pitches at the major league level. While he doesn't quite parallel the Longhorn ace in the command arena, his ability to hit his spots is trending upwards and he fills up the strike zone very consistently, setting himself apart from other data-friendly power arms. The drawback here is durability, as the Indianapolis-area native throws with considerable effort and some evaluators don't like his arm action. Additionally, he missed a few weeks this spring with arm soreness and I don't think he ever threw 100 pitches in a game, so he comes with considerable relief risk even if the pure stuff and command fit in the rotation. Personally, I'd pull the trigger on Bachman before Madden, but I'm not sure about Rizzo.

4. SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2021 stats: 9 HR, .333/.434/.579, 9 SB, 34/34 K/BB in 47 games.
Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Sam Bachman seem like the clear frontrunners to me, so after those three this list definitely becomes guesswork. If the Nationals were to pass on an arm and pick up a bat, UCLA shortstop Matt McLain seems like the most likely bet to me. He was extremely well regarded coming out of his Los Angeles-area high school, but surprisingly turned down the Diamondbacks after being drafted 25th overall in 2018. His time at UCLA has been up and down, but there have been more ups and than downs and he was on a tear before going down with a broken thumb in May, then picked up where he left off in a brief return. Though he's just 5'11" and skinny at that, he has always possessed great feel to hit and has learned to drive the ball more and more consistently throughout his time in Los Angeles, now projecting for at least average power. He also tightened up the strike zone in 2021, aiding projections for a plus hit tool, and his plus speed enables him to be a factor on the basepaths. The jury is still out on whether he can stick at shortstop long term, as he has the athleticism to profile there but his feel for the spot has been inconsistent. Either way, he profiles as a plus defender at second base, so you're getting significant value on the defensive side to go along with his top-of-the-lineup offensive upside. Personally, I'd prefer McLain over both Madden and Bachman.

5. RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State
2021 stats: 9-1, 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 139/26 K/BB in 92.1 IP.
When I first started working on this list, I didn't include Will Bednar, despite the fact that I personally would have considered him at #11 if I were picking. However, after dominating at the College World Series and allowing no hits in the final game, he seems to be much more of a realistic target for Mike Rizzo and co. Bednar has been trending straight up since he landed in Starkville with a 2.93 ERA and a 37% strikeout rate (162 in 107.2 innings) against top competition, and he can attack hitters in a lot of ways. His main weapon is a low to mid 90's fastball that can hit 96-97 early in games but usually settles into the 91-94 range, playing up because it has tremendous riding life that plays extremely well up in the zone. He adds a plus slider with extreme horizontal sweep, then can go to an average curve and changeup that he uses significantly less often. While the Pittsburgh-area native doesn't have pinpoint command, he generally fills up the strike zone and has gotten better at locating his pitches to all four quadrants even as his stuff has leapt forward. He has a durable 6'2" frame and looks the part of a #2 starter.

6. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College
2021 stats: 6 HR, .359/.443/.559, 13 SB, 28/27 K/BB in 48 games.
Sal Frelick's draft stock is in a similar place to McLain's, if perhaps a tick better, and I would prefer Frelick if both he and McLain were available. In fact, among the players with any significant chance to reach the Nationals at pick #11, Frelick is the one I want. He elevated his profile this year by coming out of the gate hot when most other first round bats stumbled, and he maintained the hot hitting to finish the season hitting .359/.443/.559 with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Undersized at 5'9", he's an elite athlete that plays with a ton of energy, giving him the ability to impact the game in numerous ways. He makes a ton of contact with plus bat to ball skills and excellent adjustability in his left handed swing that helps him find the barrel even against tough pitches, and when he gets one over the plate, he has enough power to make you pay. The Boston-area native is a plus runner that will gladly steal a base or two and will stick in center field, though some have toyed with trying him at second base. Personally, I'd just leave him at center and let him run wild. If the Nationals drafted him, he would immediately become the most dynamic player in their system.

7. RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
2021 stats: 4-2, 2.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 96/17 K/BB in 62.2 IP.
#11 overall might be a bit early to nab a pitcher fresh off spring Tommy John surgery, but Mike Rizzo has never shied away from injured pitchers early in the draft and depending on who's available here, I wouldn't mind the pick either. Aside from a healthy right arm, Gunnar Hoglund has everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect – velocity, two offspeed pitches, command, a clean delivery, consistent performance, and an upward trajectory. His fastball previously sat effortlessly around 90, but the 6'4" righty added some juice in 2021 and ticked up to about 92-94, touching as high as 97 early in games. After mostly pitching off his fastball early in his career, he began to lean more on an improved slider in 2021 that touched the upper 80's, getting consistently above average grades. And as the season moved on, he began incorporating a surprisingly good changeup more and more, giving him three above average pitches to work with. On top of all of that, he has regularly been noted as having some of the best command in the class, easily locating all of his pitches where he wants them. There are no weaknesses in this profile and given that Tommy John is becoming more and more of a regularity, the Tampa-area native could present Rizzo with a really interesting discount option. From there, Mike can overspend at pick #47, perhaps on a high school arm like Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna, or Maddux Bruns, though I would personally prefer Mozzicato or Kudrna to Bruns (and I'd prefer a high school bat over all three of them, though I doubt Rizzo would go that route).

8. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2021 stats: 16 HR, .374/.490/.680, 17 SB, 32/42 K/BB in 55 games.
Fun fact, Colton Cowser was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs, and they were actually the third and fourth best prospects on that team at the time behind 2019 draftees JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall). He's been on a tear since late March, once homering four times in two games and another time going deep in five consecutive games, all while pushing his on-base percentage close to .500. Evaluators have long been waiting for him to grow into his 6'3" frame and start tapping his power, and he showed this year he has a chance to be average in that regard. Cowser is also an excellent contact hitter who consistently puts together professional at bats, showing that with significantly more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 2021. Though he wasn't facing the toughest competition in the Southland Conference, he did perform well with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019, so evaluators are very comfortable with his offensive profile. He's also an above average runner who can swipe a base and be a net-positive in the outfield, where he projects as a fringy centerfielder or an above average corner guy. Cowser profiles as a potential leadoff guy who can hit 15-20 home runs per season for the Nationals down the line.

9. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
I think it's highly unlikely Kumar Rocker makes it all the way to the Nationals. There has been some talk of him going as high as fifth overall to the Orioles, while the Diamondbacks at #6 and the Royals at #7 have shown interest as well. But if the chips fall that way and Rocker gets out of the top ten, I absolutely do not see Mike Rizzo letting him go any further. At this point, we all know the book on Kumar. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's deep into games, with his extension making the pitch play up. Rocker's slider is one of the best pitches in college baseball when he's commanding it, making even advanced hitters look like absolute fools. He throws a cutter that has a chance to be an above average pitch and while he has shown a changeup in the past, he didn't use it much in 2021 and it wasn't particularly effective when he broke it out late in the season. Rocker has also been noted as a control-over-command pitcher throughout his career, one who has no trouble filling up the strike zone or eliciting chases but who struggles to hit spots within the zone. Regardless, his exceptional track record in the SEC and strong makeup that enables him to step up when the lights shine the brightest will not be lost on scouting directors come draft day, and the stuff is so good that he can afford merely average command in pro ball and still succeed. If the command steps up from 50 to 55, he'll be an ace.

10. RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS, FL
Eleventh overall feels a touch too early to grab Andrew Painter, but Mike Rizzo loves himself a high school pitcher and if Jackson Jobe is off the board, he could come into consideration. Painter entered the spring as the top pitching prospect in the high school class, but a combination of a loud spring from Jobe and a slow start for Painter changed that. He turned it around as the season went on, helping most traditional evaluators feel comfortable that he is still the second best. Painter is a huge, 6'6" righthander that combines physical projection with present stuff and pitchability. His fastball gets up to 95-96 without much effort, and he holds the low 90's deep into games. The South Florida product adds a pair of distinct, above average breaking balls, while his changeup is more advanced than that of most high school pitchers. He commands everything well, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile at a young age that reminds some of Mick Abel a year ago, albeit with less glowing numbers on the analytic side. The reason Painter might belong closer to the back of the first round is just that, the analytics, as some see a more traditional arsenal that doesn't stand out in today's game of high spin rates. Personally, I see Gage Jump and Chase Petty as the second and third best high school pitchers in the class, but my guess is the Nationals have Painter as #2 behind Jobe. He'll likely be an expensive sign with a Florida commitment, but at #11, I don't see him going above slot value.

Potential Second Round Targets

I mentioned a few times that the Nationals might elect to save some money early on with a pick like Gunnar Hoglund or Gavin Williams, or perhaps even on any number of other players on this list not named Jobe or Rocker (albeit less), and that would enable them to go after an expensive high schooler in the second round at pick #47. Knowing the Nationals, that would likely be a high school pitcher. Some options there:

LHP Frank Mozzicato, East Catholic HS, CT
Mozzicato has been flying up boards late in the spring once the Connecticut high school season finally got started, absolutely dominating his Hartford-area competition with a low 90's fastball and one of the best curveballs in the high school class. He's young for the class and has projection remaining in his 6'3" frame, but that projection is important considering he only tops out at 93 as of now. He's a UConn recruit.

RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, KS
Kudrna hasn't burst onto the scene quite like Mozzicato, but he's been quietly sliding up boards for a long time now. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's and he fills up the strike zone with an above average slider and changeup, all from a clean, repeatable delivery. The Kansas City-area product doesn't quite have the bat-missing stuff to project as an ace, but he has a higher floor than most high school pitchers. He's committed to LSU.

LHP Maddux Bruns, UMS-Wright Prep HS, AL
Named after Greg Maddux, this 6'2" lefty has a bit of a different profile. The Mobile native has huge raw stuff, led by a fastball that has reportedly touches the upper 90's, as well as a plus curveball and an above average slider. It's power, power, power, but at this point he has extremely inconsistent command that can be anywhere from average to non-playable. Bruns is one day shy of a full year older than Mozzicato, so he's already 19 and will be draft-eligible after two years at Mississippi State if he gets there. I would prefer both Mozzicato and Kudrna heavily to Bruns.

This is an extremely deep class of high school bats, so there will undoubtedly be numerous available at #47 that really shouldn't be there. They'll be very expensive at this point and will require an above-slot bonus, but if the Nationals save money at pick #11, they should be able to get one. I think it's much more likely they go for a pitcher, but I would really like one of the bats.

SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, CA
No, not that Max Muncy. This Muncy (no relation) really stands out for his feel for the game, and even if he's not the most athletic player in the class, he understands his body and maximizes the production he gets out of his 6'1" frame. He has a chance to be a very well-rounded player who could improve quickly with pro coaching and conditioning. He's committed to Arkansas.

3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
Kath has been trending up this spring as one of the most well-rounded bats in the West. He combines a strong feel to hit with impressive raw power in his sturdy, 6'3" frame, giving him the chance for both high on-base percentages and high slugging percentages. He has the arm for third base and may be able to stick there. Kath is an Arizona State commit.

SS James Triantos, James Madison HS, VA
Okay, pick #47 might be just a little bit rich for James Triantos, but we have to include the local kid. Oh yeah, and he plays at my alma mater and I used to take batting practice in his backyard, so while I haven't seen him hit since he was in middle school, I'm following this one pretty closely. Triantos has absolutely ripped the cover off the ball this spring, helping lead Madison High School in Vienna to its first state championship since 2015, a team which I was on. He produces great leverage through the zone that gives him power to all fields, and he simply hasn't swung and missed this spring, either. He's probably a third baseman long term and while he's a UNC commit, signability likely won't be an issue this early.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Each AL/NL East Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). I'll be writing three articles on this, starting with the AL and NL East (Central can be found here and West can be found here). Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. 

Atlanta Braves: C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, GA
Let's be honest, the Braves will never, ever, ever have trouble finding players in their own backyard. The Atlanta area is one of the top metros for baseball talent in the entire country, and without another team within 350 miles, much of the entire South can be considered "Braves country." I elected to go with North Cobb star Harry Ford at pick #24, who goes to school just 15 miles northwest of Truist Park in Kennesaw. He's an ultra-athletic catcher, something you don't hear often. Ford shows the potential for plus raw power from the right side, a product of the tremendous torque in his swing despite a smaller 5'10" frame. He also shows strong hitting ability, and at peak could be one of the better hitting catchers in the country. With plus speed, he could also play second base or center field. He will have the ability to stick back behind the plate if his drafting team chooses to keep him back there with his cat-like agility. Committed to Georgia Tech, he's an ATL lifer.
Other options: RHP Jonathan Cannon (Georgia via Alpharetta, GA), LHP Ryan Webb (Georgia via Roswell, GA), RHP Bubba Chandler (North Oconee HS, Bogart, GA), SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn via LaGrange, GA), SS Michael Braswell (Campbell HS, Smyrna, GA)

Baltimore Orioles: OF James Wood, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Olney, MD)
The Orioles pick at fifth overall, which might be just a little rich for James Wood at this point, but last year they under-slotted Heston Kjerstad overall and Wood could be an under-slot candidate at pick #5. Though he attends the IMG Academy outside of Tampa, Florida, Wood grew up in Olney about 25 miles southwest of Camden Yards. He brings absolutely tremendous raw power from the left side, a product of his 6'6" frame, brute strength, quick hands, and great leverage. Not just a pure bruiser, he brings strong feel for the barrel as well with a patient approach and a good eye at the plate. He runs very well for his size and should be an asset in right field. Once he reaches Camden, you could see him peppering Eutaw Street with plenty of home runs. He is committed to Mississippi State.
Other options: LHP Mason Albright (IMG Academy, FL via Thurmont, MD), SS Jose Torres (NC State via Baltimore, MD), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE), LHP Peter Heubeck (Gilman HS, Baltimore, MD), 1B Maxwell Costes (Maryland via Baltimore, MD)

Boston Red Sox: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (hometown: Lexington, MA)
In most years, this would be a difficult exercise, and I'd be looking for a second or third rounder to give the Red Sox. In this case, we have numerous options, though I did have to stretch a bit to get them a New Englander at pick #4. Sal Frelick probably fits better about five to ten picks later, but the Red Sox did under-slot Nick Yorke last year so this wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Frelick isn't a big guy at a listed 5'9", but his game is as loud as it gets. He shows a plus hit tool that enables him to not only make extremely consistent contact in the zone, but also easily spoil and even put in play bad pitches outside the zone. When he does connect, the Lexington native shows real power that should be at least average in pro ball. He's also a plus runner with a solid arm, and he plays the game with plenty of energy. Also noted as one of the best athletes in the class, he can handle center field or even second base if necessary. It's really a down year for college bats, so Frelick's strong 2021 production has pushed him near the very top of the list.
Other options: 2B Cody Morissette (Boston College via Exeter, NH), OF Joshua Baez (Dexter-Southfield HS, Brookline, MA), RHP Sean Burke (Maryland via Sutton, MA), LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan via North Andover, MA), RHP Mike Vasil (Virginia via Wellesley, MA)

Miami Marlins: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami (hometown: Miami, FL)
Honestly, Adrian Del Castillo probably profiles much better with an AL team with a DH, but the DH is (hopefully) coming to the NL soon so we can give him to the Marlins at the sixteenth pick. Del Castillo is a Miami lifer who attended Gulliver Prep HS before heading a few blocks down Dixie Highway to The U, where he has blossomed into one of the best college bats in the country. Standing 5'11", he has elite feel for the strike zone and the barrel with possibly the most pro-ready bat in the class, just feasting on high-level ACC pitching throughout his career. He also packs a punch from the left side, showing at least average power if not above average, though to this point it's been just a little underwhelming in 2021. Del Castillo has the feel to catch and has worked hard to stick back there, but to this point, he lacks the athleticism or arm strength to be more than a fringy defender back there. If he has to move off the position, he's a little short for first base and a little slow for the outfield, hence why he looks better for a team with a DH.
Other options: RHP Andrew Painter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), RHP Irving Carter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), C Rene Lastres (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), OF Jay Allen (John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL), OF Isaiah Thomas (Vanderbilt via Palm Beach Gardens, FL)

New York Mets/Yankees
Hitter: C Henry Davis, Louisville (hometown: Bedford, NY)
Rather than try to divvy up New York and New Jersey between Yankees and Mets country, we're just going to do them together giving a hitter and a pitcher. Henry Davis certainly won't be around when the Yankees pick at #20, and heck, the Mets would probably be ecstatic if he lasted until the tenth pick for them. It's an unlikely scenario, but we can dream, right? At Louisville, Davis has turned himself into arguably the top college bat in the class, absolutely tearing through ACC pitching as a sophomore (.372/.481/.698) and even moreso as a junior, where he's currently flirting with a .400 batting average and a .500 on-base percentage with plenty of power to boot. A product of Fox Lane High School in northern Westchester County, he shows plus raw power to go with a plus hit tool from the right side, which in layman's terms means he will be a middle-of-the-order threat in the big leagues. It's a simple, leveraged swing from a crouched stance in which he explodes out to the ball, yet remains completely under control with elite feel for the barrel. On defense, he possesses a cannon arm that can completely shut down the running game, while his glove is probably his only unremarkable tool (speed aside) at merely average. I don't expect him to be around for the Mets at pick #10.
Other options: C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), SS Danny Serretti (UNC via Berkeley Heights, NJ), C Pat Winkel (Connecticut via Orange, CT)
Pitcher: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham (hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY)
If Henry Davis is unlikely to reach the Mets at pick #10, then Jack Leiter (Summit, NJ) is downright impossible. We could have talked Chase Petty (Linwood, NJ) here, but that's a little bit too far south to call it a "hometown" pick. For that reason, we'll go a little deeper and throw out the possibility of Matt Mikulski, a rising arm for Fordham. Mikulski actually grew up in the same area as Davis in northern Westchester County, though instead of leaving the region entirely for college, he stayed close to home and came down I-87 to Fordham. There, he steadily raised his stock for three years before exploding as a senior this year, absolutely blowing away A-10 competition to rocket himself into Day One consideration. He likely won't be in play for either the Mets or Yankees in the first round, but if the Mets or Yankees want to save some money at pick #46 or #55, respectively, he could be their guy. Mikulski is a 6'2" lefty who has seen everything tick up half a grade this year, with his fastball jumping up into the upper 90's at times and settling in the mid 90's for innings at a time. His curveball and slider are both out pitches at their best, and he does add a changeup as well. The command has steadily improved from below average to solid average, which makes scouts much more confident he'll be a starter at the next level. The Mohegan Lake native's stock has a ton of helium right now, and a few weeks from now, the second round could look much more likely than the third.
Other options: RHP Shane Panzini (Red Bank Catholic HS, Red Bank, NJ), RHP Jacob Steinmetz (Elev8 Academy, FL via Woodmere, NY), RHP Pierce Coppola (Verona HS, Verona, NJ), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), LHP Justin Fall (Arizona State via Toms River, NJ)

Philadelphia Phillies: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA
Eastern Pennsylvania/Southern New Jersey has one of its best crops of talent in a long time, so there are numerous local players who could end up in red Philly pinstripes either at pick #13, #49, or #84. We'll look at Harrisburg-area high schooler Benny Montgomery, who brings some of the loudest tools in the prep class. Montgomery brings huge raw power from the right side, producing elite exit velocities that make scouts sit up. Additionally, his plus-plus speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, and a plus arm as well could help him win some Gold Gloves in the outfield with a little refinement. For now, the hit tool is a little iffy, as Montgomery has a choppy right handed swing that he has been working to smooth out. Scouts are less worried because he's a cold weather bat, meaning he's had fewer reps to smooth himself out, and his work ethic is universally praised. Committed to Virginia, he should be expensive, but at pick #13 he might not require an above slot bonus.
Other options: OF Lonnie White Jr. (Malvern Prep HS, Malvern, PA), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA), RHP Mason Black (Lehigh via Archbald, PA), LHP Anthony Solometo (Bishop Eustace HS, Pennsauken, NJ)

Tampa Bay Rays: C Luca Tresh, NC State (hometown: Safety Harbor, FL)
There are some other local first round prospects in Mississippi's Gunnar Hoglund (Hudson, FL) and Florida's Jud Fabian (Ocala, FL) and Tommy Mace (Lutz, FL), but I don't think either of the first two reach Tampa Bay at pick #28 and Mace doesn't seem to fit the Rays' draft strategy. We'll go with an NC State product here in Luca Tresh, but he's local. Tresh grew up in Safety Harbor and attended Clearwater Central Catholic, so he's a Pinellas County kid who could join Shane McClanahan (Cape Coral, FL) and Mike Zunino (also Cape Coral) as local products on the Rays. Tresh is a power hitting catcher who was in first round pick Patrick Bailey's shadow last year, but really hit his stride in fall practice this year and came out swinging – in his first eight games, half of which came against Georgia Tech and Miami, he hit .469 with more home runs (seven) than strikeouts (six). Though Tresh has come back down to Earth a little since then, he remains one of the top college catchers on the board in a pretty strong class in that regard. Any time you have a college catcher with legitimate power that he can get to consistently in games, you already have something fairly unique, and Tresh's glove is improving steadily as well. With a strong arm to boot, he's quickly becoming an extremely well rounded asset and should go off the board in the vicinity of that 28th pick.
Other options: OF Jud Fabian (Florida via Ocala, FL), RHP Tommy Mace (Florida via Lutz, FL), OF Robby Martin (Florida State via Tampa, FL), LHP Jac Caglianone (Plant HS, Tampa, FL), OF Ty Evans (Lakeland Christian HS, Lakeland, FL)

Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State (hometown: Oakville, ON)
Canada can be very hit-and-miss, and this year, there isn't much in terms of Canadian talent at the top of the draft. Mississippi State righty Eric Cerantola is one of the only Day One prospects from north of the border, but he's definitely an interesting one that should go off the board somewhere in the second round range, possibly early third round. The Blue Jays don't pick between #'s 19 and 91, so I don't really see them having a crack at him unless bonus demands push him down, but anything can happen in the draft. Cerantola is a big righty coming in at 6'5", and his hockey background makes his mound presence that much more imposing. Right now, the stuff is the calling card, with the Oakville native bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch the upper 90's in relief, a true plus curveball that might be the best in the draft when it's on, and an above average changeup. However, the pitchability traits are still catching up to the stuff, as he has little feel for the strike zone and seems to be "aiming" his pitches rather than truly commanding them. That leads to significant relief risk that will make him a serious stretch at pick #19, though the stuff is so loud that I really don't see him being available at #91 regardless. Cerantola attended Ecole Secondaire Catholique Sainte-Trinite for high school.
Other options: 2B Tyler Black (Wright State via Toronto, ON), RHP Ben Abram (Oklahoma via Georgetown, ON), C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), RHP Calvin Ziegler (TNXL Academy, FL via Heidelberg, ON), RHP Cedric De Grandpre (Chipola CC via St. Simon, QC)

Washington Nationals: LHP Brandon Clarke, Independence HS, Ashburn, VA
Northern Virginia has produced its fair share of draft talent recently, even if it hasn't been the most exciting crop. J.B. Bukauskas, Tommy Doyle, Khalil Lee, and Joe Rizzo make up the most recent names, while the next could be lefty Brandon Clarke. Clarke, hailing from the same hometown as Bukauskas but a different high school, has been rising this spring after returning healthy from Tommy John surgery. His fastball has gained a tick and now sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97, while his breaking ball and changeup have gotten good reviews as well. It's a really loose delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, so all signs point to him continuing to grow into his game and keep bringing those starter traits along. To this point, I haven't been able to find video of him since returning from that surgery, but the Nationals are never one to shy away from prep arms and he could be in play at the 47th pick or the 82nd pick if he falls due to signability away from an Alabama commitment.
Other options: OF James Wood (IMG Academy, FL via Olney, MD), LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia via Republican Grove, VA), 1B Wes Clarke (South Carolina via Lynchburg, VA), SS Ethan Murray (Duke via Crozet, VA), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE)

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 27th.

The third conference in our draft preview series, the ACC class is shaping up very differently than the Big 12 and the SEC.

The Big 12 is led by big arms in Texas’ Ty Madden and Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks, but is virtually devoid of true impact bats. Meanwhile, the SEC has some big name bats in Florida’s Jud Fabian, Arkansas’ Christian Franklin, and Tennessee’s duo of Jake Rucker and Max Ferguson, but aside from Fabian, most of the bats in the conference have a lot to prove in 2021. Meanwhile, here in the ACC, we’re absolutely loaded with offensive firepower, to the point that only two pitchers crack the ACC’s top ten prospects. They say that SEC hitters have to face a “gauntlet” of high powered arms, and that’s certainly true this year with too many to name. Over in the ACC, it will be the pitchers who will have to run down a gauntlet of high powered lineups.

Louisville, after putting five players into pro ball last year despite the shortened draft, dominates this list with two of the top three and four of the top ten names and a couple more who just missed the cut. Miami, who lost its entire weekend rotation but brings in arguably the top recruiting class in the entire country, will be a hotspot for 2021 draft talent as well, and Boston College might have the best collection of talent in recent program memory. Below are the top ten 2021 prospects in the ACC, followed by a team by team rundown of other names to watch (with apologies to Pittsburgh and my alma mater, Virginia Tech, who just don’t have much going for them).

1. C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 210 lbs. Born 9/27/1999. Hometown: Miami, FL
2019-2020: 14 HR, .336/.430/.571, 4 SB, 32/43 K/BB in 77 games.

Ironically, the top offensive prospects in the SEC (Jud Fabian) and ACC share a birthday on September 27th, only Adrian Del Castillo will be turning 21 and Fabian will be turning 20 because he reclassified. Del Castillo is simply a hitter – he hit .331/.418/.576 as a true freshman, then .358/.478/.547 as a sophomore, and sandwiched between that was a respectable .273/.323/.427 line in the elite Cape Cod League as a teenager. Not only is he the ACC’s top offensive prospect this year, he’s right up there with Fabian and UCLA’s Matt McLain as arguably college baseball’s top offensive prospect as a whole.

The bat is legit. A left handed hitter, Del Castillo combines a clean, compact swing with great extension through the ball and plenty of strength packed into his 5’11” frame. This enables the Miami native to show above average power in games, and with five home runs on the Cape as a teenager, he can get to it with wood bats and against high level pitching. More impressive than his power, however, is his professional approach at the plate. He’s extremely disciplined with just a 12.9% strikeout rate for his career at Miami compared to a 17.3% walk rate, and that’s been against a tough schedule. He should have no trouble not only handling professional pitching, but hitting for impact.

Del Castillo's defense is another story. The exceptional feel he shows for hitting carries over behind the plate, where he's a fundamentally sound catcher who gets the job done all around. However, he lacks the explosive arm strength of many of his contemporaries and the raw athleticism to create the "brick wall" effect. Given his work ethic and feel for the game, it's easy to see him working his way towards average defense, and if he can indeed stick behind the plate, the bat will be special. Even if he's forced off of catcher to first base or left field, where he'd likely be below average, the bat is potent enough to still warrant a first round selection. At his ceiling, Del Castillo could produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.

2. C Henry Davis, Louisville – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/21/1999. Hometown: Bedford, NY
2019-2020: 6 HR, .303/.381/.463, 1 SB, 22/21 K/BB in 59 games.

The ACC starts off with not one, but two elite catchers, though Henry Davis is a very different prospect from Adrian Del Castillo. A well-known defense-first prospect coming out of the New York high school ranks, he made it to Louisville and held his own with a .280/.345/.386 slash line as a freshman, elevating his stock a little bit. Then, he returned as a sophomore in 2020 and smoked the baseball nonstop, slashing .372/.481/.698 with three home runs and twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games. And while the schedule wasn’t particularly strong, he did pick up four hits, including three doubles, in eight at bats (plus two walks) against Ole Miss and homered against Wake Forest. The result is a defense-first catcher who suddenly knows how to hit, which is, you know, ideal.

Let’s talk about that bat. It was pretty light in high school, not uncommon for catchers even heading to premium programs like Louisville. The first thing he showed as a freshman was the hit tool, as he struck out in just 12.2% of his plate appearances – very impressive for a 19 year old in the ACC. Then in 2020, albeit in a small sample size, came the power, when he homered in his final two games against Wake Forest and Chicago State. Davis derives that power from a crouched load, using his legs to explode outwards at the baseball and plus bat to ball skills to find the barrel more and more consistently.There’s some minor bat wrap in that setup, but that above average to potentially plus hit tool allows me to be comfortable with it overall. The overall setup might need to be quieted just a bit in pro ball, but again, with his great feel for the barrel, I’m not worried.

On defense, he has always stood out for an exceptional right arm that can virtually shut down the running game, having thrown out 12/33 runners so far at Louisville. His glovework is more ordinary, but as with Del Castillo, it’s trending in the right direction and he should be a net-positive overall with that arm. He’ll more than likely stick behind the plate, making his offensive profile much more appealing. If he can continue hitting in 2021 like he did in 2020, when he showed a plus hit tool and solid average power in a small sample, he could vault himself into top ten pick consideration, much like Dillon Dingler may have with more opportunity last year.

3. 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3, 210 lbs. Born 5/26/2000. Hometown: Oak Creek, WI
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.

Henry Davis just edges out Alex Binelas on my draft board, but Binelas might have the most exciting bat in the Louisville lineup, itself one of the strongest in the entire country. Hailing from the Milwaukee-area prep ranks, he burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019 and slashed .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and 33 extra base hits overall in 59 games, immediately establishing himself as one of the top names in a draft that was still two years away at the time. His encore in 2020 ended abruptly when he injured his hand against Ole Miss in just the second game of the season, so for now, all we have to go off is that exceptional freshman season.

The very first thing I notice with Binelas, beyond the numbers, is his swing. It’s lightning quick and incredibly explosive, allowing him to punish velocity by sending the baseball impressive distances. It can get a little choppy at times, which leads to some swing and miss questions, but it’s hard to teach bat speed like that. His plate discipline was decent but nothing special in that big freshman season, though it’s a bit unfair to judge his approach based on a freshman run through the ACC. 2021 will be a big opportunity for him to elevate his stock in that regard, especially considering the tangential questions about his hit tool. Still, you don’t knock 33 extra base hits as a freshman in the ACC without at least some feel for hitting, and his offensive upside is perhaps the best in the ACC.

On defense, we see somewhat of a similar story. Binelas shows a strong arm from third base, though he’s a bit choppy with the glove and makes for a decent overall third baseman. A few years ago, scouts might have been comfortable calling it “good enough” and letting him deploy that arm over there, but with shifting becoming a huge part of a third baseman’s job, his range becomes a little more stretched. That could lead to a move to first base or right field depending on his progress, where the pressure would increase on his hit tool. He has some to prove in 2021, but his combination of upside and college track record will be hard to match anywhere in the draft.

4. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’9″, 175 lbs. Born 4/2000. Hometown: Lexington, MA
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.

Boston College has the best group of draft talent it’s seen in years, and right at the top of that list is Sal Frelick. Though smaller in stature, he’s exploding with tools and jumped out to a .367/.447/.513 slash line with 18 stolen bases and more walks (22) than strikeouts as a freshman in 2019. Though his 2020 started slower before the shutdown (.241/.380/.414), he picked it right back up in summer ball with a .398/.473/.592 run through the FCBL. No question, this kid can flat out play.

Frelick’s big numbers have mostly come from a true plus hit tool, which has enabled him to strike out in just 8.8% of his plate appearances so far at Boston College. Though undersized, his exceptional feel for the barrel combined with innate athleticism enables him to hit for more power than you’d expect, with plenty of doubles, triples, and even home runs. The Boston-area native shows plus-plus speed that has enabled him to steal 25 bases in 28 tries at BC, and that becomes 35 bases in 39 tries when combined with his summer stats. He shows great range in the outfield and should be an asset in center field, giving him nearly the total package.

Let’s talk swing mechanics. Frelick has a simple swing in which he keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, which is a good thing, and when he gets his pitch, it can be a really smooth, pretty swing at that. His mechanics can vary more than most tend to, and when he doesn’t get his pitch, he tends to flail at the ball. The good news is that his elite barrel control still enables him to make very consistent contact on those pitches, and strikeouts have never been even remotely a concern. Watching him hit, it’s actually pretty impressive to see him way out on his front foot and still drop singles the other way or put difficult pitches in play, but going forward he’ll probably want to accept a little more swing and miss so that he can get his “A” swing off more often than not. With his strong pitch recognition skills, a more consistently upright Frelick could be a true impact hitter at the next level, despite being one of the smallest guys on the field.

5. RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/12/1999. Hometown: Sudbury, MA
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 innings.

In contrast to the hitters, there aren’t any truly complete pitching prospects in the ACC. Ryan Cusick can’t even be considered the closest in that regard, but the stuff is nonetheless exciting. Though he hails from the Boston suburbs, Cusick attended the Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer and 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin, and looks to be the latest in a strong line of baseball players from the Hartford-area powerhouse. His freshman season was pretty ordinary in 2019, putting up a 6.44 ERA and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio across 65.2 innings, but he raised a lot of eyebrows in 2020 when his stuff took a big step forward. That led to a 3.22 ERA and a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, and in this case, scouting the stat line does indeed tell the story.

Cusick is a 6’6″ right hander with wicked stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, can bump as high as 97-98, and you’ll notice in this video that he hit 95 on his 103rd and final pitch of the game against Louisville. He can also rip off a wicked slider with serious bite, a true plus pitch at its best, but at times it can flatten out considerably. His third pitch is his changeup, which he doesn’t use often, but he can flash a solid average one with nice fade to the arm side. All of this was on full display in the Coastal Plain League over the summer, where he dominated with a 1.14 ERA and a 40/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings.

Of course, the big question here is command and consistency, with the aforementioned breaking ball problems and the fact that he walked 18 batters in 22.1 innings last year. Prior to that, though, he had only walked 36 batters in 101.1 innings between his freshman season and the Cape Cod League, and then he walked just nine in 23.2 innings this summer. That suggests that he may simply need time to learn to harness that newfound stuff, and if the summer numbers are telling the truth, he already has. Cusick is a prime contender for a breakout in 2021, one who could rocket up boards similarly to how Bobby Miller did so a year ago. He clearly has the arm strength to start, so if he can just take even incremental steps forward with his consistency and command, good things will happen to his projections. If not, he has a high floor as a fastball/slider reliever who could see high leverage innings in the big leagues.

6. 2B Cody Morissette, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 1/16/2000. Hometown: Exeter, NH
2019-2020: 6 HR, .346/.402/.512, 11 SB, 43/29 K/BB in 73 games.

Sal Frelick and his teammate Cody Morissette form arguably the best 1-2 lineup punch in college baseball, and while they have put up similar numbers at Boston College, they’re very different players. Morissette gave a strong first impression as a freshman in 2019, hitting .320/.371/.476 across 58 games, then exploded for a .448/.522/.655 line in 15 games a s a sophomore in 2020. That wasn’t a product of a weak schedule, as he picked up six hits in three games against Arizona State and eight hits in three games against Clemson.

We could go on and on about how Frelick’s tools impact the game, but with Morissette, he just hits – and I mean that as a compliment. He has no trouble squaring up advanced pitching with a very steady hit tool and emerging power, and he’s been extremely consistent at BC. It may seem like a high-floor, low-ceiling projection, but that consistent bat has shown more and more impact over time and he could be ready for a very loud 2021 campaign. At six feet tall, the New Hampshire native doesn’t have a big frame but isn’t the smallest guy on the field either, so the hope is that he could end up with a 15-20 home run bat down the line.

Defensively, Morissette won’t wow anybody, looking more than capable at second base but probably a bit stretched at shortstop. If he doesn’t generate enough impact to start, he could handle the prime position on a part time basis, and his experience all over the diamond aids him in the shifting era. Personally, I see some Keston Hiura here (albeit in the other batters box), though Hiura had that huge junior season going for him and Morissette looks to be the slightly better defender. Hiura went ninth overall out of UC Irvine in 2017, so don’t sleep on Morissette’s draft ceiling if he can put together a big junior year like he’s capable of.

7. OF Robby Martin, Florida State – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 8/17/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .317/.408/.440, 3 SB, 76/45 K/BB in 80 games.

The bats just keep on coming. Leading the way in one of the most talented outfields in the country is Florida State’s Robby Martin, a steady .317/.408/.440 hitter during his time in Tallahassee. A highly touted prep outfielder coming from the Tampa area, Martin has steadily improved at FSU and now has evaluators excitedly pegging him for a breakout.

More about projection as a high schooler, Martin now has legitimate tools across the board and can impact the game in many ways. He’s maintained the above average speed and strong hit tool from high school, but with lots of added strength and a track record of hitting in college, he’s a much more complete prospect. Martin uses and opposite field approach that results in a lot of line drives and otherwise hard contact, which has enabled him to produce at FSU and in the Florida Collegiate Summer League (.313/.397/.417).

To this point, he hasn’t shown much in-game power, but he has really tacked on strength in Tallahassee and filled out his 6’3″ frame. Though his power isn’t quite as robust, he finds himself in a similar position to where Vanderbilt’s JJ Bleday was heading into the 2019 season, and a more power conscious and launch angle-conscious swing could have him headed for a breakout. If so, we could be talking straight 55 grades across almost every tool and a first round selection.

8. 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 10/19/1999. Hometown: Lewes, DE.
2019-2020: 7 HR, .321/.399/.472, 20 SB, 70/37 K/BB in 74 games.

As someone who played a lot of baseball on the Delmarva Peninsula growing up, it’s cool to see the region’s first big name draft prospect since Tyler Webb (via South Carolina in 2013). While they’re not the best at cranking out reliable pitching, UVA has a nice track record of producing competent, disciplined hitters like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, and Matt Thaiss in recent years, and Delaware native Zack Gelof is one of two big bats they’re sending out this year. He adapted to college pitching well as a freshman (.313/.377/.396), hit well in the Northwoods League over the summer (.349/.426/.490), and was off to an exceptional start in 2020 with a .349/.469/.746 line and five home runs in eighteen games.

Gelof does not have one standout tool, but shows well across the board. He’s smoothed out his right handed swing since high school and has produced plenty of hard contact in college, using Davenport Field’s spacious gaps to his advantage for plenty of extra base hits. He started turning those gappers into home runs in 2020, and evaluators are excited to see if he can maintain that power surge in 2021. If so, it would help alleviate some questions about his hit tool, as he is very adept at finding the barrel but has not shown the great K/BB ratio’s seen with many of his predecessors in Charlottesville. In 2020, he upped his walk rate to a nice 15.9%, but still struck out 22% of the time after showing similar strikeout rates throughout his career.

Gelof finds himself in a good spot heading into 2020. By either maintaining his power surge or lowering his strikeout rate, he could easily find himself in the first round. However, if he can’t do either, I think most evaluators would feel more comfortable pegging a 50 hit, 50 power third baseman in the second. His glove should help him, as he’s proven very capable at third base and will easily handle shifting. There are a lot of 50’s and 55’s in his profile, not too dissimilar to Robby Martin above him on this list, though Martin is just a little bit toolsier. Gelof is praised for his feel for the game and ability to play above his tools.

9. OF Levi Usher, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 210 lbs. Born 6/25/2000. Hometown: Fairfax, IA
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 games.

The last three players on this list (Cody Morissette, Robby Martin, and Zack Gelof) did a lot of things well, but didn’t flash individual “wow” tools. Levi Usher, the third member of the Louisville lineup on this list, has wow tools. He put up some eye popping numbers at Iowa’s Kirkwood CC, slashing .409/.493/.538 with 36 stolen bases in 53 games, then kept on hitting with a similar .411/.484/.571 line and eleven stolen bases for Louisville in 2020. Together, that makes for one exciting player heading into 2021.

Usher is the prototypical “raw, toolsy athlete.” He has a very loose, athletic left handed swing and a line drive approach that has served him exceptionally well so far, absolutely beating up on weaker opponents throughout his career. Given his strength and operation, you can project some power as well, likely enough for 15-20 home runs a year in the big leagues. He does come with some strikeout concerns, but he’s done so much damage on balls in play that it’s easy to overlook those for now. Then we have the plus to plus-plus speed that has given him 47 stolen bases in 69 games between Kirkwood and Louisville, which will serve him very well on both sides of the ball. Combine “raw and toolsy” with on-base percentages near .500, and you’re in business.

The one main knock on Usher is not really his fault. He didn’t face strong competition in the Iowa JUCO ranks, and while he combined to go 10-22 against Ole Miss and Wake Forest in 2020, there hasn’t been much sample size against legitimate pitching staffs. Over two summers in the Northwoods League, he’s slashed just .261/.337/.373 with a 46/17 strikeout to walk ratio, leading to some questions as to how his approach will play against advanced pitching and how his power will play with wood bats. Still, you can’t deny the production he’s had with metal bats and the tools are outstanding, so another strong season in the Cardinals’ lineup could make him an easy first round pick. Scouts will be watching his run through ACC play very closely in 2021.

10. RHP Jack Perkins, Louisville

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 200 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN
2019: 3-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37/18 K/BB in 32.1 IP.

Our fourth member of the Louisville program to crack this top ten list, Jack Perkins is somewhat similar to Levi Usher in that he lacks much of a track record. He put up a 4.18 ERA and struck out 37 batters as a freshman reliever in 2019, but he also walked 18 in 32.1 innings and went down with Tommy John surgery in June of that year. After missing the 2020 college season, he got on the mound for 18.1 more innings in summer ball with more of the same – 2.45 ERA, 23/14 K/BB. Now a redshirt sophomore, he heads into 2021 with as much to prove as anybody.

The 6’1″ righty shows electric stuff from the right side. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out at 97 in relief, while his slider flashes plus and can miss bats in bunches. We also have a curveball and changeup, but those two pitches are well behind the fastball and slider. Perkins gets some deception from a bit of a crossfire deliver, but there is some effort there as well, which is more concerning combined with his surgery. If Perkins wants to start in pro ball, he’ll also have to improve his command considerably, as the jerk in his delivery can cause him to lose his release point.

We’re talking about a high ceiling and a low floor for Perkins, clearly. Tommy John surgery is commonplace these days and he’s fully healthy now, so if he can just get some innings under his belt, it might be all he needs to improve that command and his curve or changeup. Smoothing out his delivery would help as well, as it could be the root of his command problems. There’s a good chance he’s forced to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination could really play up, but teams would like to send him out as a starter if possible.

Other ACC Interesting Options

Boston College:

Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette provide the most exciting prospect duo the Eagles have seen in recent memory, but we’re also excited for Friday nights in Chestnut Hill. Mason Pelio is BC’s best pitching prospect since Justin Dunn, having put up a 3.73 ERA and an 81/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for his career. He lacks the explosive stuff seen in top ten ACC prospects Ryan Cusick and Jack Perkins, but he’s much more pro-ready than either of them. He has a big, durable frame at 6’3″ and has averaged five and a half innings per start, deploying a cutting low 90’s fastball and an above average changeup. His cutter means he has been adept at missing barrels, but the lack of a good breaking ball has limited his bat-missing ability and at this point he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. Improving his breaking ball to at least average would be the biggest thing he could do. With slightly above average command, fine tuning that just a little into a true 55 could take pressure off his breaking ball.

Clemson:

The Tigers didn’t put a single player in the top ten, but that doesn’t mean they’re devoid of draft talent. Davis Sharpe is the ACC’s best two-way prospect, having hit .276/.392/.431 with seven home runs at Clemson while putting up a 3.33 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings on the mound. Though he shows power and patience at the plate, his bat is probably a little light for first base, so his future is likely on the mound. His fastball sits around 90 but can touch 95, and his slider flashes above average to even plus at times. The 6’4″ righty has some effort in his delivery but does a good job of throwing strikes, and could be a breakout candidate for 2021. Neither Carter Raffield nor Mack Anglin have much in the way of track record, but both can hit the mid 90’s with their fastballs and could take big steps forward in 2021. Lastly, Adam Hackenberg was a highly touted name coming out of the Virginia high school ranks, but he’s still looking for a breakout. His cannon arm will help him stick behind the plate, taking pressure off his bat. He’s shown plus raw power in batting practice but it comes at the expense of his hit tool, with an aggressive approach and a lot of swing and miss. Any improvement in his offensive game will make him a priority for area scouts.

Duke:

A year after producing first rounder Bryce Jarvis, the Blue Devils have two names that just missed the top ten. Cooper Stinson is the younger brother of former Blue Devil and current Rays prospect Graeme Stinson, and he has momentum heading into 2021. Stinson finished 2020 with a 0.42 ERA and a 24/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 21.2 innings against a schedule that included Minnesota and Florida State. He sits around 90 with his fastball but tends to pitch above that number more than below, and his quick right arm puts nice angle on the ball. The 6’6″ righty also shows a good slider and a changeup, with his control improving in 2020 as well. Command can still be a bit shaky, but he’s one of the most complete pitchers in the ACC. We also have Ethan Murray, a career .293/.394/.434 hitter in Durham. He’s one of those guys with no standout tool but no weaknesses either, showing great plate discipline and a consistent, line drive approach at the plate. There isn’t much power at this point, but he should produce enough doubles and triples to keep pitchers honest. As with his bat, his feel for the game stands out more than his physical tools on defense, with the polish to handle shortstop but perhaps not the arm strength and athleticism. Sticking there would give him a better chance to play full time, but his most likely role is as a utility infielder who can impact the game in a lot of ways. Joey Loperfido is behind Stinson and Murray on draft boards, showing lots of average tools but having yet to put it together. A likely outfielder who has played almost everywhere, he has some power, some speed, and solid plate discipline, but he’ll need to find a way to impact the game consistently in pro ball.

Florida State:

Robby Martin is easily the best prospect in Tallahassee, but he’s part of one of the most talented outfields in college baseball with Reese Albert and Elijah Cabell. Albert was eligible in 2020 but withdrew from the draft, and now carries a career .270/.381/.491 slash line into 2021. Albert is a pretty basic “college performer” type who has shown some power, the ability to get to it in games, a patient approach, and steady overall performance. With a July birthday, he’s not much older than most first time eligible players, and brings a track record that many cannot match. He’s a bit of a sleeper to become a useful platoon or full time bat down the road. Cabell, meanwhile, was also draft eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot .263/.488/.649 start to the season. Despite being a class below Albert, he’s actually slightly older, and shows louder tools. Cabell has huge raw power and some surprising speed, but has also struck out in nearly 40% (!) of his plate appearances. Because of this, evaluators have serious questions as to whether he’ll reach that power in pro ball, coming into the 2021 draft with a similar profile to Bobby Dalbec. On the mound, Jack Anderson is a breakout candidate with a low 90’s fastball and a solid breaking ball. To this point, he’s struggled to find innings on that crowded FSU pitching staff.

Georgia Tech:

GT is another school loaded with prospects who just missed the top ten list. Luke Waddell returns a career .308/.410/.409 hitter, an extremely polished bat with great consistency. At a stocky 5’9″, he doesn’t profile for much power, and has just four career home runs for the Yellow Jackets, so the upside is limited. Given that he’ll turn 23 during the 2021 draft, he has a pretty clear high floor, utility profile. He profiles best at second base but can handle shortstop if needed. Brant Hurter is listed at 6’6″, 250 pounds, and was also eligible in 2020. He was dominant as a sophomore in 2019 (2.42 ERA, 58/14 K/BB) but missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery, and is now healthy. Hurter effectively commands a low 90’s fastball and a sharp slider, giving him a chance to start despite turning 23 shortly after the draft. He’s a bit of a sleeper. Luke Bartnicki and Cort Roedig bring more exciting stuff, but both can be enigmatic. Bartnicki was a well-known draft prospect as a high schooler and has shown flashes of dominance in Midtown Atlanta, but hasn’t put it together quite yet. His low 90’s fastball can touch 94-95 without much effort, and his low three quarters arm slot makes him tough on lefties. The 6’3″ lefty also shows a good slider that can elicit chases and miss bats when he’s ahead in the count, but his command has made everything play down so far. Roedig, meanwhile, has an unconventional windup in which he crouches, quickly replaces his feet as fast as he can, then slows up again to deliver the ball. His fastball can touch 97 with high spin rates, and his high spin slider flashes above average as well. To this point, he’s been around the strike zone but everything has been inconsistent, and he might need to settle down just a little bit to take full advantage of his stuff. He profiles as a reliever at this point but if he just calms down a little, he might be able to surprise some people.

Louisville:

The Cardinals put four names in the top ten and we’ve got even more to talk about. Michael Kirian was eligible in 2020 but went undrafted, and now with Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller out of his way, he has a chance to prove himself as a starter. The 6’6″ lefty has been untouchable with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings the last two seasons, all in relief. He has a low 90’s fastball that touches 95 as well as a good curveball, and as a starter in 2021 he’ll get to show off his less used cutter and changeup. If he can maintain his velocity in a starting role, he’ll fly up boards, because I always thought the stuff was a little light for relief. Jared Poland can challenge Davis Sharpe as the best two-way prospect in the ACC, though I still prefer Sharpe. Poland hasn’t performed much at the plate or on the mound yet for Louisville, showing a low 90’s fastball and a nice changeup on the mound combined with a good hit tool at the plate. He looked good on the Cape as a pitcher, and refining his breaking ball a little could make him a legitimate #3/#4 starter prospect. At the plate, he has started to tap some power and needs to continue that to profile as more than a utility infielder. We also have Glenn Albanese, a pure relief prospect with a mid 90’s fastball and a curveball that flashes plus. He struck out 18 of the 37 batters he faced in 2020 and more of the same could make him one of the top relief names in the draft.

Miami:

The Hurricanes pulled in a fantastic incoming recruiting class, giving Adrian Del Castillo lots of high octane arms to work with. One of those is JUCO transfer Jake Smith, who had a 1.59 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio at State College of Florida last year. The 6’5″ righty is a breakout candidate on the back of a plus fastball that can hit 97 with solid command. He’ll need to refine his offspeed pitches a bit more but could fly up boards if he does. 6’1″ lefty JP Gates is another breakout candidate who should see more innings in 2021, currently showing an above average fastball/slider combination in relief. Any uptick in velocity should make him a legitimate late inning weapon. It’s a relief projection on the surface, but with the whole weekend rotation gone from last year, he could have a chance to start, though he’ll need to refine his changeup considerably. Lastly, Alex Toral‘s name has been thrown around for a while now, and he blasted 24 home runs in 61 games in 2019. Obviously, he’s a power hitter, and he also shows nice patience at the plate that should help him tap it in pro ball. The swing is a bit grooved and gives me some Matt Adams vibes.

North Carolina:

By far, UNC’s best draft prospect is infielder Danny Serretti. The New Jersey native will get plenty of comps to crosstown rival Ethan Murray over at Duke, showing a steady profile rather than a toolsy one. He doesn’t have much power in his 6’1″ frame but did hit 18 doubles as a freshman, showing a line drive bat and a knack for getting on base. He has a chance to stick at shortstop, which will make his bat more attractive, but he didn’t show much impact on the Cape in 2019. Scouts will be looking for more gap power to project more impact in pro ball. We also have the unproven Joe Charles, who has touched 97 with his fastball but is otherwise a one tool player. He’ll need significant refinement in his command and added power to his slurvy breaking balls, which do have potential.

North Carolina State:

The Wolfpack get back Tyler McDonough, who was undrafted in 2020 despite a career .327/.407/.473 line. He’s a college performer with strong plate discipline and some ambush power, a bit of a sleeper given his 5’10” frame. He’ll be 22 before draft day but could quietly hit his way up the ranks. Jose Torres is the Pack’s top draft prospect, a glove-first shortstop who can get to any ball he wants. His bat was considered very light coming out of high school near Baltimore, but he burst onto the scene with a .333/.369/.533 line and three home runs as a freshman in 2020. Draft eligible with a 1999 birthday, he’s very skinny at six feet tall but could grow into some power if he starts generating more leverage with his swing. His plate discipline is very raw at this point, so cleaning it up will be a big priority for 2021, but that glove buys his bat plenty of slack and if he continues the hot hitting he showed in 2020, look out.

Virginia:

Joining Zack Gelof in that strong UVA lineup will be Nic Kent, who just missed the top ten list. Kent has hit everywhere he’s gone, including .335/.426/.450 in Charlottesville and .373/.420/.464 in the Northwoods League. He has a simple, line drive swing that produces hard contact to all fields, and he rarely swings and misses. That hit tool is clearly his best attribute, but if he can a) tap some more power from his 6’2″ frame or b) prove he can stick at shortstop, he has first round aspirations. Andrew Abbott is one of the top returning undrafted arms, and looks to be one of the top relievers in the class. He’s a smaller lefty at 6′, but makes up for it with a bulldog mentality on the mound and a strong fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low 90’s, nothing crazy, but the curveball is a true weapon and he goes right after hitters. We also have Mike Vasil, who was a top draft prospect coming out of the Boston area high school ranks in 2018, but he has not developed as expected. After hitting 96 in high school, he’s been closer to 90 in college and dips below that number fairly often. His breaking balls haven’t really come along and lack finish to this point, but his changeup his lone above average pitch. Vasil has a great body at 6’4″ and plenty of arm strength, so scouts will be watching closely to see if he can regain that old form. The talent is absolutely there and if he can add a tick or two back to his fastball, he might have some similarities to last year’s Tommy Mace.

Wake Forest:

The Demon Deacons bring a couple of big bats back who were draft eligible last year. Bobby Seymour hit .377/.439/.576 as a sophomore in 2019, but otherwise has been more solid than great, which isn’t quite enough for a first baseman. He’ll look to tap more power from his big 6’4″, 250 pound frame. Meanwhile, Chris Lanzilli has a fairly similar profile, having hit .347/.409/.620 in a big sophomore season in 2019 with a career .314/.394/.594 line and 31 home runs. He’s a big power bat, more so than Seymour, but scouts see him more as a college performer than a pro masher. He’s plenty strong enough to project for above average pop, but he’s not quite as explosive as some of the other power hitters in this class and will be 23 on draft day.