2021 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

The Diamondbacks didn't know if it would happen, but their guy fell to them at sixth overall and they got him. To afford Jordan Lawlar's big over slot bonus, they had to go six figures below slot in the second, third, fourth, seventh, and ninth rounds, though they did pop for another big over slot bonus in the eighth with Florida prep Gavin Conticello. Overall, I really like the class they came away with even if they took a lot of discounts, with my favorite pick being second rounder Ryan Bliss.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-6: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]. My rank: #6.
Jordan Lawlar had a lot of really big fans in the industry, actually earning the top spot on the Baseball America 500 and getting first overall buzz from the Pirates. He didn't go quite that high, but still got the third largest bonus in the draft behind only second overall pick Jack Leiter and third overall pick Jackson Jobe. Lawlar has long been praised as arguably the single most advanced high school player in the class, and it's pretty evident any time you watch him play. He's comfortable in the box against high level pitching, he's an aggressive but smart baserunner that's always looking for opportunities, and he has his head on a swivel at shortstop ready to handle whatever is thrown at him. At a young age, it's the kind of advanced feel for the game you typically see from mid-round "feel over tools" college shortstops, but with the upside of a high schooler. At the plate, he has handled everything he's seen from a stuff standpoint, picking up base hits against high velocity fastballs and quality breaking balls while using the whole field. He got off to a bit of a slow start during his high school season and swung and missed a bit more than expected, but righted the ship in plenty of time to show evaluators it was a fluke. There's a lot of twitchy strength in his 6'2" frame and should give him a chance for above average power, though for now it's looking more average than above. The swing is very clean and should he decide he wants to lift and turn on more baseballs, he should be able to do so without sacrificing his hit tool. The Dallas-Fort Worth product is supreme athlete that turns in plus run times and shows off a cannon arm at shortstop, and though he can be just a tad inconsistent with the glove, he has the range and instincts to not only stick there, but be an asset. Really, the only things that held Lawlar out of my top five were a lack of power projection (at least with regards to other top of the draft bats like Kahlil Watson, Brady House, Marcelo Mayer, and Henry Davis) and age, as he turned 19 less than a week after the draft. Still, we're looking at arguably the most complete profile in the high school class (I'd say Mayer is slightly more complete, but it's close), so it's not like he hasn't used that age to his advantage. The ceiling here is that of a 20-25 home run hitter with high on-base percentages and great defense at shortstop, with a more median outcome looking like 15-20 home runs and solid on-base percentages. Committed to Vanderbilt, Lawlar instead signed for $6.71 million, which was nearly $1 million above slot value.

2-42: SS Ryan Bliss, Auburn. My rank: #41.
Ryan Bliss was one of my favorite players in this draft class, so obviously I love this for the Diamondbacks, especially considering they got him below slot. Always a consistent performer at Auburn, Bliss busted out this year with his best season yet and slashed .365/.428/.654 with 15 home runs and a 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games, all while running the gauntlet of SEC pitching. He's a plus hitter that makes a ton of hard contact and rarely swings and misses, striking out at just a 12.7% rate while continuing to hit for impact. Just 5'9", it's easy to label him a contact hitter and move on to the next player, but Bliss packs a punch. There's a ton of twitchy strength in that small frame and he shows a knack for turning on baseballs in his wheelhouse, maximizing every bit of power he has and adding plenty of extra bases on top of it. I saw both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America label him with 40 grade (below average) power, but I would go at least 45 grade (fringe-average) and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up truly average in that regard, blasting 12-20 home runs a year. The western Georgia native has an aggressive approach at the plate that somewhat limits his walks, but he has such a knack for finding the barrel that I'm not worried about him striking out in pro ball, rather he just doesn't typically go deep in counts. Defensively, he's played shortstop at Auburn and has an outside chance to stick there with his scrappy style of play and quick actions, but he might have a touch less physicality than is needed for that spot (especially with Jordan Lawlar coming up behind him) and will probably move over to second base, where he could be a plus defender. Bliss plays hard and never leaves anything on the field, so he's going to continue to squeeze every bit of talent out of himself as he works his way up. I see the Diamondbacks' second baseman of the future to pair up with Lawlar. Bliss signed for $1.25 million, which was roughly $520,000 below slot value, and he's slashing .262/.290/.415 with two home runs through 15 games at Low A Visalia.

CBB-67: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami. My rank: #56.
It wasn't a great year for the top college bats coming into the season, and a big part of that was Adrian Del Castillo, who I saw projected as high as second overall to the Rangers in preseason mock drafts. Coming into the season, he was fairly universally lauded as the most professional hitter in the draft, having hit .336/.430/.571 with significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32) over his first two seasons. It was a plus hit tool with above average power that he tapped in games, and few pitchers could find holes in his swing. It was a different story in 2021, as he continued to manage the strike zone well but the impact was gone. He hit just .275/.380/.395 with three home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, his .120 ISO (slugging minus batting average) way down from .245 as a freshman and .189 as a sophomore. Now, it's a bit tough to know what to make of the profile. He's still a professional hitter that will have no problem handling minor league pitching, with advanced zone recognition and very little swing and miss. He's always in control of his at bats. The Diamondbacks are going to have to bring that power back out though, because questions do surround his glove. It takes three things to be a big league catcher: natural athleticism, innate feel for the position, and hard work. Del Castillo absolutely has the latter two, as his strong feel for hitting translates to a sound fundamental game behind the plate and he's worked extremely hard to get better, but for now, it looks like he's missing that third piece. The Miami native isn't the quickest back there when it comes to blocking balls in the dirt and while his arm is accurate, it's not all the plus cannon you see from a lot of other amateurs. If he's forced to move to first base, the power will have to come back. Now, there's absolutely room for optimism. As we've mentioned, that innate feel for hitting has not gone anywhere and he remains able to put together strong at bat after strong at bat, and he has shown above average power in the past on a consistent basis. The Diamondbacks will have to find a way to bring it back out of him, whether that's through a tweak in his swing or through a new workout regimen or whatever, but when he's at his best, it's as complete of a profile in the box as you're going to find. At his ceiling, Del Castillo has a chance for 20-25 home runs a year and high on-base percentages, which would be great for a catcher if he can indeed stick there. He signed for $1 million, which was $23,300 above slot value, and he's hitting .200/.322/.320 through 14 games, mostly at Low A Visalia.

3-77: RHP Jacob Steinmetz, ELEV8 Academy [FL]. My rank: #116.
In drafting Jacob Steinmetz, the Diamondbacks picked up the first ever known Orthodox Jew to play professional baseball. He's been trending up for years now, and his stock continued to rise when he transferred to ELEV8 Academy in Florida. His fastball has naturally progressed with steady, sustainable increases in velocity, and it now parks comfortably in the low 90's with a peak around 95. Steinmetz's curveball shows quality shape and depth, and as it adds more power, it has a chance to become a plus pitch. He also shows feel for a slider and changeup that are a bit behind the other two pitches, but everything is trending up. Everything he throws has high spin rates, adding extra life to the fastball and a higher ceiling for his breaking balls. While the command isn't pinpoint and he's still very much growing into his 6'5" frame, there's not a ton of effort in his simple delivery and that portends future average or even above average command. All together, the Long Island native is going to need considerable refinement and development, but there are no red flags in the profile at all and everything points to him continuing the trend he's on towards becoming an impact starting pitcher. To top it off, Steinmetz is young for his class and didn't turn 18 until a week after the draft, making him a full year younger than first rounder Jordan Lawlar and adding extra time for him to get stronger, more consistent, etc. And by all accounts, he's a hard worker who will make the most of his natural talent and then some. Committed to Fordham, he instead signed for $500,000, which was $305,600 below slot value.

4-107: RHP Chad Patrick, Purdue Northwest. Unranked.
The Diamondbacks made history with a second straight pick here, now drafting the first player ever out of Division II Purdue University Northwest in Hammond, Indiana. Chad Patrick was one of the country's best pitchers at the DII level this year, posting a 1.83 ERA and a 97/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings, going at least six innings in each of his eight starts and getting through the seventh in all but one. He carved up his overwhelmed opposition with a low to mid 90's fastball that functions as his primary weapon and can get up to 97, adding a full array of secondary pitches. He's separated a slurvy breaking ball into two distinct, average pitches in a curve and a slider, while his changeup shows nice fade and sink. Everything plays up because he pounds the strike zone and loves to get ahead in the count. The 6'1" righty deploys a clean, repeatable delivery that helps him maintain both his stuff and command deep into games, giving him every chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. If he wants to be more, he'll probably need to find a putaway pitch by taking a step forward with one of his secondaries. The northwestern Indiana native may have pitched in a small conference this year, but he's no stranger to better competition and showed well in the Northwoods League back in 2019 (3.49 ERA, 52/18 K/BB). Age is a slight drawback here, as he turned 23 a few days before I published this review and he'll want to move relatively quickly. He signed for $350,000, which was $193,500 below slot value.

5-138: C Caleb Roberts, North Carolina. Unranked.
Caleb Roberts wasn't much of a threat during his first two years at UNC, slashing just .222/.367/.272 over 57 games and never putting one over the fence. However, he hit two home runs in his first game of the 2021 season and never looked back, slashing .270/.442/.476 with ten home runs and a 41/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games this spring. Roberts is a very, very patient hitter who rarely chases and really for the most part won't swing unless he gets one he likes. It's led to an extremely high 16.5% career walk rate, something that was really his only strength during those tough first two years in Chapel Hill (as you can see by the lopsided slash line in the first sentence). He's talked on strength since then and now has considerable power in his 6'1" frame, especially to the pull side, though it's a bit of a grooved swing that doesn't always adjust well to pitches outside his wheelhouse. His "make pitchers come to me" approach really helps mitigate that, though he can get into trouble with two strikes and get caught looking. The Diamondbacks will want to work with him on getting more aggressive at times and being able to expand his zone when necessary, but that's not necessarily a bad problem to have as most hitters struggle to recognize bad pitches whereas Roberts really excels there. A catcher entering UNC, the South Florida native has spent most of his time at school in the outfield, though the Diamondbacks have tried him out a bit behind the plate. He's pretty raw back there as you'd expect from someone who was pushed off the position in college and may not stick, but the bat looks a lot better if he can, perhaps enough to play every day. In the outfield, where his fringy speed relegates him to a corner, he's more likely a fourth or fifth outfielder/platoon bat. Roberts signed for full slot value at $402,000 and is slashing .149/.322/.277 over 14 games so far, mostly at Low A Visalia.

6-168: RHP Luke Albright, Kent State. My rank: #121.
Kent State has earned a reputation as the Midwest's premier pitching factory, at times outshining larger nearby schools like Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana in that facet. Luke Albright is the latest product to come out of the MAC program, coming off a strong three year career in which he put up a 2.98 ERA and a 178/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings. His 3.40 ERA in 2021 was actually a career-worst mark, but ironically he only allowed two or fewer earned runs in every single start against teams outside the state of Michigan (combining for a 1.91 ERA) but was touched up for sixteen runs in three starts against Eastern, Central, and Western Michigan. Fortunately, the Tigers are in the American League, so he won't have to face them as often. Alright's arsenal doesn't have a clear plus pitch, but it's balanced throughout and he does a very good job deploying it. His fastball sits in the low 90's and is more or less an ordinary pitch by pro standards, while he shows good feel to spin the ball and gets sharp break on his curveball and more lateral movement on his distinct slider. The changeup isn't a weapon but it's certainly usable and should continue to serve him well against left handed hitters in pro ball. The 6'4" righty doesn't have pinpoint command and can get into trouble with walks at times, but he mitigates some of that inconsistency with a willingness to go right after hitters and pound the strike zone. That plays further into what evaluators have seen as a very competitive streak on the mound, something that will undoubtedly be a boon in pro ball as he gets battle tested. So far, he's proven durable at Kent State and hasn't missed a start since he was added to their rotation last year, giving him every opportunity to work his way up as a #4-ish starter. The Indianapolis-area native signed for full slot value at $301,600 and has allowed three runs in 2.1 innings at Low A Visalia.

8-228: 3B Gavin Conticello, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL]. Unranked.
After rolling the dice on Wisconsin prep AJ Vukovich a year ago, the Diamondbacks will do so with another power hitting teenager this spring in Gavin Conticello. Conticello has a ton of room to grow into his 6'4" frame, which along with his big left handed hack gives him a chance for plus power at the big league level. It's all projection for now, though, as that big swing can get out of whack in games and he didn't always make consistent contact even in the spring against local competition, albeit strong local competition in South Florida. Arizona will want to take its time developing his bat, helping him fill out that frame and getting more coordinated and more intentional with his mechanics. Conticello doesn't show the quickest actions out in the infield and will have to work to stick at third base in the shifting era, but his strong arm gives him every opportunity to do so. Age is a positive factor here, as he only turned 18 a month before the draft, giving him extra time to develop. There's a lot of upside here and a lot of risk. Committed to South Florida, he signed for $500,000, which was $313,700 above slot value.

10-288: LHP Hugh Fisher, Vanderbilt. My rank: #217.
Hugh Fisher has already earned Randy Johnson comps, so this will be a fun one. He never quite found his place in a deep Vanderbilt bullpen and threw just 55 innings in three seasons (three full seasons, since he sat out 2020 with Tommy John surgery), this year posting a 2.45 ERA and a 13/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 innings and gradually losing playing time over the course of the season. The 6'6" lefty isn't quite as big as the Big Unit, but it's still an apt comparison. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and can rip off a vicious slider all from a nearly sidearm slot, so when it's located, it's true ninth inning stuff. Problem is, it's rarely located. Fisher has near bottom of the scale command and managed to get just one out over his final four appearances combined, with head coach Tim Corbin only allowing him to face one hitter in each of final three. Those resulted in two walks and a hit by pitch. He's not consistent with any of his mechanics and will need considerable work in pro ball, though after missing a year with Tommy John surgery he's now 22 and a half years old. There's true closer upside in the fashion of Josh Hader, himself a late round pick, but only if he improves his command at least a full grade if not two grades. The Memphis-area native signed for $100,000, which was $47,900 below slot value, and he's allowed three runs in four innings so far at Low A Visalia.

14-408: SS Channy Ortiz, Grand Canyon. Unranked.
The Diamondbacks did make one hometown pick in 2021, grabbing PHX lifer Channy Ortiz. A graduate of Apollo High School in Glendale, he only needed to head a few miles down 35th Avenue to attend Grand Canyon University. 2021 was his best season yet, as he slashed .313/.413/.454 with eight home runs and a 23/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Ortiz is a strong contact hitter with exceptional strike zone management, always finding good pitches to hit and driving them with authority from both sides of the plate. His skinny 5'10" frame limits just how much authority that is, but it's enough that he should pick up plenty of extra base hits and ambush pitchers for home runs here and there. He's an instinctual defender that makes all the plays at shortstop, and all together it's a classic utility infield profile to go with Josh Rojas, another PHX native. Ortiz signed for $125,000 and is slashing .143/.250/.143 through ten games, mostly at Low A Visalia.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Every AL/NL West Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). This is the final of three articles, as I previously wrote on the AL and NL East as well as the AL and NL Central. Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, Scottsdale, AZ
Usually, Phoenix and its suburbs are a hotspot for talent, with notable recent first round Arizonans including Nick Gonzales (New Mexico via Vail), Matthew Liberatore (Glendale), and Nolan Gorman (Phoenix). This year, no Arizonans figure to be in play at pick #6, and probably not at #42 either, but when the Diamondbacks loop back at pick #67 in the second competitive balance round, Wes Kath could be a great option if he's not already off the board. The Scottsdale native is a slugging corner infielder who can really smoke the baseball from the left side, a product of the strength and leverage in his 6'3" frame. Unlike most power hitters his age, he also shows a strong hit tool and feel for the barrel, so he should have no problem tapping his power in pro ball. In fact, for much of his prep career, that hit tool has been ahead of his power, which is saying something given his powerful 6'3" frame and high exit velocities. Kath is committed to head south on 101 to college at Arizona State, so the Diamondbacks would only need to divert him a couple of miles west to downtown.
Other Options: LHP Brock Selvidge (Hamilton HS, Chandler, AZ), RHP Dominic Hamel (Dallas Baptist via Chandler, AZ), RHP Chase Silseth (Arizona via Farmington, NM), OF Donta Williams (Arizona via Las Vegas, NV), SS Channy Ortiz (Grand Canyon via Phoenix, AZ)

Colorado Rockies: C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (hometown: Centennial, CO)
Neither Colorado, Colorado State, Denver, nor Wyoming has a baseball team, so unless elite prospects want to play at Northern Colorado or Air Force, they have to leave the region to chase their Division I dreams. One of those kids was Casey Opitz, who graduated from Heritage High School in Centennial before embarking across the plains to Arkansas. There, he has blossomed into Pitching Ninja's favorite catcher due to his high energy playing style behind the plate. Opitz indeed is one of the better defensive catchers in the college game, showing great mobility behind the plate, a strong arm, and perhaps most importantly, all of the leadership qualities you look for in a seasoned backstop. In an organization like Colorado, where you're often pitching in hitter-friendly environments that can be discouraging, that's even more important. Opitz's bat isn't as special as his glove, as he shows strong plate discipline but for the most part has lacked impact. Additionally, he'll turn 23 shortly after the draft, which combined with the fringy bat gives him a pretty clear backup projection. Opitz probably won't be in play on Day One, but once the Rockies loop back around for their fourth round pick at #109, he could start to make sense anywhere between there and maybe pick #200ish in the seventh round.
Other options: RHP Chase Silseth (Arizoan via Farmington, NM), RHP Riley Cornelio (Texas Christian via Monument, CO), RHP Cale Lansville (Thunder Ridge HS, Highlands Ranch, CO), RHP/1B Sam Ireland (Minnesota via Highlands Ranch, CO), 2B Cooper Bowman (Louisville via Rapid City, SD)

Houston Astros: RHP Caedmon Parker (The Woodlands Christian HS, The Woodlands, TX)
The Astros don't pick until #87 this year after the sign stealing scandal, which almost certainly puts them out of the running for top local products like Ty Madden (Texas via Cypress), Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State via Cypress) and Izaac Pacheco (Friendswood), and possibly Dylan Smith (Alabama via Stafford) as well. Still, Southeast Texas is so rich with prospects that we still have plenty of options to choose from. Last year, the Astros went above slot value to bring in a falling high school pitcher in Alex Santos with the 72nd pick, and they could do the same thing with Caedmon Parker this year. I'm personally a big fan of Parker, an athletic 6'4" righty who also plays wide receiver at The Woodlands Christian High School. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, sitting in the upper 80's on some days and touching 95 on others, but given his athleticism, springy delivery, and room to add a ton of good weight, I can easily see him sitting at the upper end of that velocity band or higher in the future. He adds a curveball, slider, and changeup that are all developing, but he spins the ball well and I can see at least one if not two or three of those pitches becoming above average to plus down the road. Additionally, Parker fills up the strike zone very consistently, which is usually not the case with these long-term, projectability types. And lastly, because he's young for the class with a June birthday, he has that much more time to develop. Parker is committed to TCU and even though he'll likely be an expensive sign this year, I think he'll be significantly more expensive in three years.
Other options: RHP Dylan Smith (Alabama via Stafford, TX), SS Cameron Cauley (Barbers Hill HS, Mont Belvieu, TX), RHP Bryce Miller (Texas A&M via New Braunfels, TX), RHP Landon Marceaux (Louisiana State via Destrehan, LA), RHP Brandon Birdsell (Texas A&M via Willis, TX)

Los Angeles Angels: SS Matt McLain, UCLA (hometown: Tustin, CA)
I feel comfortable splitting up the two Los Angeles teams despite combining the two New York and Chicago teams (plus the Bay Area teams lower down on this list), with plenty of space separating Angel Stadium and Dodger Stadium. For the Angels, we'll go with UCLA star Matt McLain, even if pick #9 might be just a little rich for him at this point. McLain was a stud at Beckman High School in northern Irvine, and the Diamondbacks tried to pry him out of Southern California by drafting him 25th overall. However, he didn't sign, and proceeded to post a disappointing freshman season up in Westwood (.203/.276/.355), but has been trending back up ever since. The Tustin native was red hot when the season shut down in 2020, then continued his hot hitting ways over the summer. After getting out of the gates a little slow in 2021, he's back to his usual ways lately and if he continues on this path, he very well could be an option at pick #9. McLain is a smaller guy at 5'11", but he's an elite athlete who packs a lot of strength into his lean frame and could profile for average or even above average power. He also finds the barrel very consistently with a quick right handed stroke, with plus speed that makes him a weapon on the bases. He has the athleticism for shortstop but his feel for the position is so-so, so keeping him at the premium position might require a little bit of development. Working slightly against him is age, as he'll turn 22 slightly after the draft.
Other options: LHP Gage Jump (JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, CA), SS Cody Schrier (JSerra HS), RHP Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara via San Clemente, CA), 1B JT Schwartz (UCLA via Newport Beach, CA), RHP Troy Melton (San Diego State via Anaheim, CA)

Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, Thousand Oaks, CA
Now wouldn't this be funny? Max Muncy is indeed not related to the current Dodger of the same name, but is currently waiting right there for the team just forty miles to the northwest across the Ventura County line. I originally thought about giving the Dodgers Mira Costa (Manhattan Beach) star Thatcher Hurd at the 29th pick, but given how small their bonus pool will be without a second round pick, I'm not sure they can afford him. Likewise, not having that second round pick means they won't pick again until #101, so there's a good chance Muncy is off the board by then as well unless he slides due to signing bonus demands. However, the idea of the Dodgers picking up another Max Muncy was too interesting not to talk about. He's a feel-over-tools guy who can just flat out play, showing few weaknesses in his profile. Muncy has a nice 6'1" frame with long levers that help him put nice leverage into his right handed swing, giving him a chance at above average power. While his swing mechanics can be inconsistent in the box, he shows enough feel for the barrel to profile as at least an average hitter if not above average, which pairs nicely with that emerging power. Defensively, he doesn't quite have the range or athleticism for shortstop, but he has the chance to be an above average third baseman if he moves over there. With a lot of building blocks to work with, the Dodgers could sign him above slot in the third round to keep him away from Arkansas, but if he's snatched up earlier (he likely will be), they can just draft his Thousand Oaks teammate, second baseman Roc Riggio.
Other options: 2B Roc Riggio (Thousand Oaks HS, Thousand Oaks, CA), RHP Thatcher Hurd (Mira Costa HS, Manhattan Beach, CA), RHP Sean Sullivan (California via Woodland Hills, CA), C Noah Cardenas (UCLA via Saugus, CA), RHP Jesse Bergin (UCLA via Los Angeles, CA)

Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants
Hitter: OF Tyree Reed, American Canyon HS, American Canyon, CA
Unlike Los Angeles, I decided to combine Oakland and San Francisco into one Bay Area "hometown" because there isn't quite enough talent on the San Francisco side of the Bay and they share the Central Valley/Sacramento area anyways. For the hitter, we'll go with American Canyon star Tyree Reed, who is a fairly polarizing prospect due to his lack of exposure. He didn't attend many events over the summer and underwhelmed in his limited looks, but scouts with more history with Reed have seen him do great things on the baseball field. A skinny 6'2", he can show off one of the better left handed swings in the class, a quick, leveraged stroke that will help him hit for above average power down the line. For now, he needs to add strength in order to produce that power, but he does have strong plate discipline that should allow him to tap it once it comes. Reed is also a plus runner who has the chance to be a standout defender in center field, only adding to his value. The lack of a track record means he won't be in play for the Giants at pick #14 and might be a bit of a stretch for the A's at pick #25, but if he's still around for the Giants at #50 or the A's at #60, he could make a lot of sense. American Canyon, by the way, is just north of Vallejo on the way up to Napa. He's committed to Oregon State and could command a large bonus.
Other options: OF Ryan Holgate (Arizona via Davis, CA), SS Davis Diaz (Acalanes HS, Lafayette, CA), OF Braiden Ward (Washington via Merced, CA), 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State via Pleasant Hill, CA), 2B Darren Baker (California via Granite Bay, CA)
Pitcher: RHP Trenton Denholm (UC Irvine via El Dorado Hills, CA)
Honestly, this spot was up for grabs between three pitchers from the same high school, Oak Ridge High School in the Sacramento suburb of El Dorado Hills. Though Houston ace Robert Gasser has seen his name trend up lately, I decided to go with UC Irvine star Trenton Denholm over Gasser and Texas lefty Pete Hansen because Denholm was the only one to stay in state for school while the other two headed to the Lone Star State. Denholm was actually eligible last year, but he went undrafted and because he was extremely young for a college junior last year, he's still age-appropriate for this year's draft. He won't overpower you, but he will out-compete you and that's led to one of the better statistical track records in this year's draft. The 5'11" righty dominated for two summers in the elite Cape Cod League, not allowing an earned run in 32.2 innings, and he held a 1.90 ERA over 123.1 innings at UCI from 2019-2020. Denholm gets it done with a modest fastball that sits around 90, getting up to 93 at his best, adding a slider and curveball that can miss bats. His best pitch is a plus changeup that makes the rest of his arsenal play up, and he ties it all together with strong command and a bulldog-like mentality on the mound, going right after hitters. He's been a bit more inconsistent in 2021, alternating brilliant starts against Hawai'i and UC San Diego with rough ones against Cal State Northridge and Cal Poly. His proponents will point to his makeup and long track record of results, but detractors will look at his size and lack of velocity and point Denholm to the bullpen. Regardless, the 21 year old will come into play in the third round if a team wants to sign him below slot, but otherwise, more likely in the fourth or fifth round.
Other options: LHP Robert Gasser (Houston via El Dorado Hills, CA), LHP Pete Hansen (Texas via El Dorado Hills, CA), RHP Cullen Kafka (Oregon via Walnut Creek, CA), RHP Anthony Susac (Jesuit HS, Carmichael, CA), RHP Alex Williams (Stanford via Castro Valley, CA)

San Diego Padres: RHP Grant Holman, California (hometown: Chula Vista, CA)
The Padres, perhaps more than any other team, love to take high-ceiling high school talent at the top of the draft, and this year, there's an absolute stud right in their backyard at Eastlake High School in Chula Vista. In my opinion, Eastlake's Marcelo Mayer is the best high school player in the draft, and the Padres would absolutely love to get him in their system, but unfortunately (or fortunately) they don't pick until #27 this year. Mayer is likely to go in the top five picks, so we'll shift our focus to another Eastlake alum, California star Grant Holman. Holman is a two-way star who hit .264/.348/.414 over his first two years in Berkeley, but gave up hitting this year to focus on pitching and the results have been great. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's at times and has touched 97, and he puts nice life on the ball with his 6'6" frame. The big right hander, who clocks in at 250 pounds, also adds a full array of secondary pitches, with the slider being the one to take a step forward this year. He's been moving up boards all spring, so the Padres could jump onto the train heading in the right direction and look to develop the rest of his arsenal. He throws plenty of strikes and has that big, durable frame, giving him the upside of an impact starting pitcher. The Chula Vista native would probably be a bit of a stretch at pick #27 unless he takes off at the end of the season, but he could be in play when the Padres come back around at pick #62 and again at #71. Of course, I fully expect them to target high school talent, but Mayer is the only Day One high school prospect I've come across so far.
Other options: RHP Kevin Abel (Oregon State via San Diego, CA), RHP Braden Olthoff (Tulane via Oceanside, CA), RHP Mason Pelio (Boston College via San Diego, CA), RHP Nick Nastrini (UCLA via San Diego, CA), RHP Carson Seymour (Kansas State via Temecula, CA)

Seattle Mariners: OF Malakhi Knight, Marysville-Getchell HS, Marysville, WA
No PNW players will be in play when the Mariners select at pick #12, but a couple of local high school products will be over their next couple of picks. We'll look at outfielder Malakhi Knight, who stars at Marysville-Getchell High School at the northern tip of the Seattle suburbs. The Marysville native shows off a powerful right handed swing that generates plenty of loft and leverage from a strong 6'3" frame, though it can get a bit grooved and out of whack at times. He also shows solid feel for the strike zone that should enable him to tap more and more power as he grows into it, though scouts are looking for a bit more consistency at this point. Knight will also be an asset in the outfield, where his at least above average speed could play in center field and his strong arm will be a net-positive in right field. To top it all off, "Malakhi Knight" is in my opinion the coolest name in a prep class that also includes Roc Riggio, Lorenzo Carrier, and Vytas Valincius. Knight is committed to Oregon State and makes sense for the Mariners at pick #48.
Other options: RHP Max Debiec (O'Dea Catholic HS, Seattle, WA), 1B Kyle Manzardo (Washington State via Coeur d'Alene, ID), C Shane McGuire (San Diego via Kent, WA), RHP Willie Weiss (Michigan via Portland, OR), RHP Jake Pfennigs (Oregon State via Post Falls, ID)

Texas Rangers: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS, Dallas, TX
We'll end with probably the easiest pick to make here. Not only is Lawlar the most likely Metroplex product to end up with the Rangers this year, he might be the most likely player period. A native of Irving, Lawlar attends arguably the best baseball program in the region, Jesuit High School in North Dallas, and he's separated himself as arguably the top high school player in the country. Personally, I'm just a bit higher on San Diego high schooler Marcelo Mayer, but that's neither here nor there. Lawlar stands out first for his combination of exceptional athleticism and exceptional feel for the game, often looking like he's just on a different level from others on the baseball field with him. He brings great feel for the barrel that enables him to spray hard line drives all around the field against advanced pitching, with burgeoning power in his lean 6'2" frame. On the other side of the ball, he shows great range and a strong arm at shortstop that could make him an impact defender with a little more consistency. A plus runner, Lawlar wreaks havoc on the bases but is a smart baserunner who knows when to be aggressive without making boneheaded mistakes. There's really a lot, a lot to like with Lawlar, which is why numerous mock drafts have projected him to the Rangers at #2 overall. Really, the only flaws his detractors will point to are age, as he'll turn 19 in July, and power that plays closer to average than plus.
Other options: RHP Eric Hammond (Keller HS, Keller, TX), RHP Ryan Johnson (Red Oak HS, Red Oak, TX), LHP Jonathan Childress (Texas A&M via Forney, TX), RHP Rawley Hector (Anna HS, Anna, TX), LHP Hagen Smith (Bullard HS, Bullard, TX)

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.