2025 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

I always enjoy writing the Guardians' draft review because they always draft interesting players, and this year was no different. With four of the top seventy picks, including three picks in a seven pick span at #64, #66, and #70, they also had more draft capital than most other teams in the back of the first round. Usually a team to chase athletic, up-the-middle contact hitters, they pivoted this year to take hulking sluggers in both the first and fourth rounds as part of a class that began with six hitters in their first seven picks. After successfully injecting significant offensive upside into their system, they pivoted to pitching beginning in the sixth round and took eleven pitchers with their final fifteen picks, giving their lauded pitching development system plenty more clay to work with. Interestingly, there are a lot of buy-low candidates in this class (beginning with first rounder Jace LaViolette), a profile Cleveland has targeted with some frequency lately.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #23. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #17.
Few teams draft as consistently on-brand as the Guardians, yet this first pick went against virtually everything they've ever targeted. Besides being known for drafting and developing a ton of arms, Cleveland's type is very well known when it comes to position players – young (often prep), up the middle talent with strong bat to ball even at the expense of some power. Jace LaViolette is, well, not that. Standing all of 6'6", 230 pounds, he showed up to his first fall practice in College Station back in 2022 and virtually from day one stood out as a potential superstar. He lived up to the hype, blasting 21 home runs to set a Texas A&M freshman record in 2023 before cranking it up a notch with 29 home runs and a .305/.449/.726 slash line in 2024. Widely considered a frontrunner for the first overall pick entering the season, he instead took a step back in 2025, dropping to "just" 18 home runs while his batting average fell to .258. LaViolette is a big, tall slugger. It's a tremendously forceful left handed swing that has produced plus-plus raw power in the past, though it played closer to "just" plus in 2025, and he can send the ball out to any part of any ballpark. Still, he prefers to go to the pull side with a swing designed to lift the ball to right field. Many try, but LaViolette overwhelmingly succeeds at doing so – a skill that is highly correlated to major league slugging success. This will enable him to tap every bit of his prodigious raw power in games going forward. The big issue here, of course, is strikeouts. They were already a concern in 2024, when he struck out 24.2% of the time, and he actually rose to 25.2% in 2025. That's high. The Houston-area product offsets the swing and miss a bit with an extremely patient approach that forces pitchers to come into the zone and led to a sky high 21.8% walk rate in 2025, but pro pitchers will pound him in the zone and his below average bat to ball skills will be tested. Cleveland does not need him to be a .300 hitter. Rather, he needs to make just enough contact to get the ball up in the air and run into his fair share of home runs. There are many similarities to Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, another towering left handed slugger who struggled mightily with swing and miss. Jones, who was drafted in a similar spot at #25 overall out of Vanderbilt in 2022, has been extremely streaky in the minors but has been red hot in 2025, now knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. Also similarly to Jones, LaViolette is a very good defender for his size. He runs well underway once he gets that big frame moving and looks to be above average in right field, where his strong arm will be an asset as well. There has been some talk about him getting a shot in center field, where he saw the bulk of his time in College Station the past two seasons, and sticking there would be a very nice bonus to the profile. All in all, there is 30-40 home run upside here with high on-base percentages if he can clean it up inside the strike zone, with a high side outcome looking something like a more athletic Adam Dunn (likewise a Houston-area native).

2-64: SS Dean Curley, Tennessee
Slot value: $1.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #39.
Dean Curley is another very interesting buy low pick. A Southern California native, he immediately hit his way into the Tennessee starting lineup as a freshman (though the age of a college sophomore), positioning himself as a potential first round pick in 2025. He got off to a hot start and his name started coming up in top ten conversations, but he faded just a little bit as the season wore on and scouts seemed to sour on his projections. Personally, I still see a very solid prospect here and I think he is great value in the back of the second round. Curley has a big league frame at 6'3", 220 pounds, maintaining a lean build while packing on plenty of strength. He channels that strength into a simple, efficient right handed swing that produces above average raw power, a grade that could get to plus as he continues to fill out. A patient hitter, he manages the strike zone well and regularly puts himself in counts where he can do damage, helping project for a potential average hit tool even if the pure bat to ball is a tick below. Much was made about his uneven sophomore season, but at the end of the day he still increased his home run total (12 to 14), improved each leg of his slash line (.285/.386/.502 to .315/.435/.531), and improved both his strikeout (17.5% to 16.0%) and walk (11.6% to 15.3%) rates over what was praised as a strong freshman campaign. Offensively, Curley projects as a potential 20+ home run hitter with middling on-base percentages. Defensively, there are question marks. He moves well for his size and has the athleticism and more than enough arm strength to handle any position on the field, including shortstop where he played almost every game in 2024 and saw some time in 2025. However, the biggest shadow on his 2025 season may have been a case of the yips. He routinely struggled to make basic throws and often looked like the game had sped up on him, which was not the case in 2024. The game will only get faster in professional baseball and he'll need to sink or swim if he wants to remain an infielder. The Volunteers moved Curley around to second and third base in an effort to get him more comfortable, and we'll ultimately see what the Guardians choose to do. If it really was just a one time case of the yips that can be cured with an offseason of low stakes training, he may very well end up a big league shortstop in the Willy Adames mold.

CBB-66: OF Aaron Walton, Arizona
Slot value: $1.32 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #161. Baseball America: #154.
Aaron Walton really, really quietly snuck up draft boards late, and even though I had him ahead of MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, I felt that I was probably under-ranking him and at least in terms of draft position that seems to be the case. He began his career at Samford and while he didn't set the world on fire, he showed enough for the Bulldogs to earn a transfer opportunity most of the way across the country at Arizona. It was there in Tucson that he blossomed into the day one pick he became, putting up better numbers against a tougher Big 12 schedule than he ever did against Samford's SoCon schedule. Walton lacks a carrying tool but does everything well. A relatively patient hitter, he will take his walks but doesn't miss an opportunity to put the ball in play, leading to a high on-base profile. The swing does get steep, but he adjusts well in and out of the zone and shows strong plate coverage. He's listed at the same 6'3", 220 pound height and weight as Dean Curley above him, and while he can't quite match Curley's above average power, he shows some thump from the right side and brings that power when he turns on pitches. In all, it's a profile that could produce 10-15 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. The Nashville-area product is just an average runner but he plays hard in center field and has a good chance to stick there, unless pushed off by a quicker defender. The median projection here is that of a fourth outfielder that can handle all three outfield positions and add some length to the bottom of the lineup, but the upside is an every day jack of all trades who hits a few spots below the middle of the lineup.

CBB-70: RHP Will Hynes, Lorne Park SS [ON]
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #166.
Will Hynes was the first player drafted this year that had not been on my radar, and most publications had him pegged a few rounds later. While he may have flown under the radar here in the States, he was the talk of the town for Canadian scouts who saw his stuff take a step forward this spring. The fastball now sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, playing above its velocity with significant running action that could make it a heat-seeking missile against right handed hitters as he adds more velocity. He is steadily gaining more feel for a high spin slider with nice sweep, average to above average much of the time but flashing plus at its best when he gets good finish on it. Hynes also throws a changeup with parachute action that has been inching forward, looking average for now with more in the tank down the line. The 6'2" righty has a very clean, easy delivery that helps him show above average command for a high school pitcher and should enable him to naturally add velocity as he fills out. Born triple sevens on 07/07/07, he's young for the class and has that much more time to grow as a pitcher. While Hynes might not have the explosive stuff or the same high upside as other high school draftees in the same draft range, the Toronto-area native comes more pro ready than most and could grow into a mid-rotation starter. He had been committed to Wake Forest and while the Guardians drafted him earlier than many expected, it was rumored to be a firm commitment and he still may be expensive.

3-101: OF Nolan Schubart, Oklahoma State
Slot value: $759,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #63.
I mentioned that first rounder Jace LaViolette was virtually the opposite of Cleveland's archetype, but Nolan Schubart might be even more extreme in that direction – at least LaViolette is a solid athlete with a chance to play center field early in his career. Like LaViolette, Schubart stepped onto campus already a highly touted prospect, then produced a huge freshman season in 2023 before setting the world on fire in 2024 with 23 home runs and a ridiculous .370/.513/.838 slash line. There's an argument to be made that opposing pitching coaches had a bigger circle around his name than any other hitter in the Big 12. Like LaViolette, 2025 was a bit of a step back from a production standpoint and while he had been projected comfortably inside the top fifty picks entering the season, he ultimately fell outside the top one hundred. Schubart, of course, stands out for his power. He blasted 59 home runs in three seasons in Stillwater with monster, plus-plus raw juice that he gets to every bit of in games. It all comes from a burly 6'5", 225 pound frame that generates elite bat speed and ridiculous torque, enough to send this baseball 517 feet to the opposite field. He's a very patient hitter that has drawn 139 walks over three years and 164 games, forcing pitchers to come into the zone and helping him put up a .464 on-base percentage in that span. Unfortunately, pitchers do have success when they hit their spots in the zone. His pure bat to ball is well below average, leading to elevated strikeout totals. He has a tendency to lean over the plate as the pitch is delivered to really channel everything he has into crushing the baseball, which can cause him to get tied up when he's not on time. The projection here is that of a potential 30+ home run hitter but with low batting averages. Joey Gallo is always the classic comp here, though something like Jack Cust is also possible if he can scare pitchers out of the zone enough and take his walks. Schubart will have to make contact because he provides little to no defensive value. He's a lumbering, well below average runner for which playing a fringy left field will be a best case scenario, with first base or full time DH a real possibility. If he can recapture some of what he showed in 2024, the Guardians will be just fine with him at DH. He hails from the small town of Durand, Michigan, sitting between Flint and Lansing but Cleveland fans will be relieved to know he left the state for Oklahoma State rather than attend Michigan.

4-132: 3B Luke Hill, Mississippi
Slot value: $561,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #105.
While Jace LaViolette and Nolan Schubart bring extreme power-over-everything profiles, Luke Hill bears more in common with Aaron Walton as a more balanced, steady profile. Yet another highly regarded prep prospect, he began his career at Arizona State and hit well as a freshman, then transferred back closer to home to attend Ole Miss for his sophomore and junior seasons. While his 2024 was a bit quieter, he stepped things up in 2025 and emerged as one of the better all-around prospects in the region. He is a very professional hitter that walked more than he struck out in both seasons in Oxford, leading to a .459 on-base percentage against tough competition in 2025. He has solid bat to ball as well, making for an overall above average hit tool. There is some present strength in his sturdy 6'1" frame and which helps him produce average raw power at peak, though his simple right handed swing and level approach lead to fringier power in games and he'll likely top out at 10-15 home runs per season in the majors. The defensive profile is similar to the offensive one, with average tools across the board including a steady glove and moderate arm strength. With average speed, he should make all the plays at the hot corner and he has just enough arm to stick over there. He can also handle second base if needed. Overall, the Baton Rouge native projects as a steady utility infielder though he will be stretched at shortstop.

6-192: LHP Nelson Keljo, Oregon State
Slot value: $325,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #350.
Jesuit High School in Portland, Oregon has become a pitching factory as of late, producing two recent first round picks in Mick Abel (2020) and Noble Meyer (2023). Sandwiched between the two of them (and teammates with both) in the 2022 graduating class was Nelson Keljo, himself a highly regarded prep pitcher drawing scouts of his own in his draft year. Keljo made it to Oregon State anyways, where he pitched out of the bullpen to strong results (especially in 2024) before moving to the rotation in 2025. He was more good than great, and the Guardians grab him here in the sixth round. The 6'4" lefty has a big arm, sitting low 90's and touching as high as 97 in short stints with riding life that makes the pitch play above its velocity and jump on hitters. He mixes in an average slider with downward plane, though he prefers to gas hitters up with the fastball to get strikeouts. Keljo also throws a solid changeup that has taken a step forward in Corvallis, now looking like a potential above average offering with further refinement. He's a big guy that uses his height more than his athleticism to work down the mound, and after running a respectable 7.3% walk rate out of the bullpen in 2024, that number ballooned to 12.9% in 2025. If he is to remain a starter, Keljo will need rein that command back in as well as bring his secondary stuff along if he wants to start. The good news is that the Cleveland organization is a great place to do that, or he could let his fastball tick up and lean on it in a bullpen role.

9-282: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M
Slot value: $197,200. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #170. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #177.
Ryan Prager has taken a bit of a circuitous route to get here. A relatively unheralded prospect as an underclassman at Texas A&M, unlike many other names in this Guardians class, he spent his freshman season in the rotation before missing his sophomore year with Tommy John surgery. Returning in 2024, he burst onto the scene as one of the most dominant arms in the SEC and, despite lacking big stuff, found himself drafted in the third round by the Angels. However, the two sides could not come to a deal and Prager became the top unsigned college prospect to return to school, where he had large NIL deals lined up. Unfortunately, both he and the rest of the Aggies had a disappointing season, watching his ERA inflate by over a run while his strikeout rate dropped from 31.2% to 20.9% and his walk rate rose from 5.0% to 6.0%. In 2024, Prager pitched with a fastball around 90 that topped out around 94, lacking big velocity but playing up with ride through the zone. That fastball often lived in the upper 80's in 2025. He throws an average slider and a straight changeup, helping round out an arsenal that can really play up due to his plus command of the baseball. However, his struggles to miss bats this season highlight the small margin of error these light stuff-arms work with, as just a small step backward bumped him from the third to the ninth round. Set to turn 23 in October, he'll look to add that tick back to his stuff and perhaps become a back-end starter. The 6'3" lefty is plenty physical and figures to be durable in whatever role he takes on.

14-432: SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #439.
Anthony Silva represents another buy-low draft pick. One of the top prep prospects in the state of Texas in 2022, he withdrew from the draft in order to attend TCU and at first the move looked to pay off as he hit .330/.416/.471 as the Horned Frogs' starting shortstop as a freshman in 2023. Entering his draft-eligible sophomore season as a potential first round pick, he instead took a step backwards and found his name discussed more in the third to fifth round range. He instead elected to return to school, where he ranked two spots behind Ryan Prager as the #3 unsigned college prospect, but unfortunately did not have the bounce back season he was hoping for in 2025. Silva has shown to be an average hitter over the past two seasons. He's patient at the plate, but pitchers have attacked him in the zone more often due to his lack of impact and he falls behind in counts too often. There is solid bat to ball, enough to keep his strikeouts reasonable, though it has regressed as his strikeout rate rose from just 12.5% as a freshman to a combined 18.1% over the past two seasons. Always wiry and skinny, a portion of Silva's draw as a prospect stemmed from the projection in his 6'2" frame that could help him grow into average or better power in time. That power never materialized and the seven home runs he hit as a freshman remains his career high, and at the point he projects to average about ten home runs per season at the big league level. The San Antonio native still brings value on defense, where he projects to stick at shortstop. Depending on when you saw him, you could have seen a steady, fluid defender with plenty of range to be an above average defender there, though he has been just a bit stiffer over the past couple seasons. Overall, if Silva can recapture his freshman magic, he has a shot to be a high contact utility man at the big league level. He turned 22 shortly after the draft.

15-462: RHP Evan Chrest, Florida State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315.
Evan Chrest burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season as Jacksonville's ace, but he took a step back in his sophomore season as his strikeout rate dropped and his ERA more than doubled. Florida State still came calling, and he came out with three strong midweek starts (including one against his former team) before leaving his fourth start with an elbow injury, ending his season. Chrest sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak, not overwhelming velocity but enough. The fastball plays up due to riding life through the zone and a low release, causing it to jump on hitters and sneak over bats at the top of the zone. He throws both a true sweeping slider and a tighter cutter, while his changeup shows nice fade to the arm side and gives him a fourth reliable pitch. He's a good athlete that repeats his delivery well and shows above average command when healthy, giving him a real chance to start. On the flip side, he'll need to prove that health coming back from his elbow injury and at an even six feet tall, he's not the largest starting pitcher in the world. The Tampa native could see his stuff take a step forward in the bullpen, though that would feel like a waste of his deep arsenal. The Guardians are certainly a good organization for him to sneak up on analysts and come out as a late draft success story.

2024 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

The Guardians always draft well, and this draft was no different with the largest bonus pool of any team this year. They nailed the first pick with what I thought was the best player in the draft, then signed him for a massive discount to boot. As has become tradition in Cleveland, they spread those savings over a slew of high school arms, ultimately handing out five different signing bonuses of $1.8 million or more. Though they grabbed two college bats with their first three picks, it was a pitching-heavy class as they took eight straight arms from there. I love this class for Cleveland and I'm excited to follow it.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-1: 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State {video}
Slot value: $10.57 million. Signing bonus: $8.95 million ($1.62 million below slot value).
My rank: #1. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #2.
Holding the first pick of the draft with a massive eight figure slot value, the Guardians could do quite literally whatever they wanted with their first pick. Not only did they wind up bringing in Travis Bazzana, in my opinion the top overall prospect in this draft, they did it while giving him $300,000 less than the #2 and #3 overall picks because Bazzana specifically preferred Cleveland as a landing spot and willingly took a discount. Bazzana is a superstar. An Australian native, he thought he was headed for JuCo ball when Oregon State came calling, and since he stepped on campus he has played in 184 of the Beavers' 188 games. After a strong freshman season and an even better sophomore year, he went out and demolished the Cape Cod League to the tune of a .382/.474/.576 line and six home runs in 36 games – apparently someone forgot to tell him this was the best pitching he would ever face at the amateur level. Already considered a top-three prospect in the draft entering the 2024 season, he went out for his best season yet and hit an absurd .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs and more than twice as many walks (76) as strikeouts (37) in 60 games. Bazzana is listed at a modest 6', 200 pounds, but that is the end of any modesty in this profile. His ultra strong forearms help him whip the bat around like a toothpick a la Gary Sheffield, which he deploys from a crouched stance with plenty of bat waggle. From there, it's a very compact, extremely explosive operation from the left side that leads to plus raw power which he tapped plenty in games, finishing second only to #3 overall pick Charlie Condon (Rockies) with his .911 slugging percentage. But for all the juice in his bat, Bazzana is even more notable for his on-base ability. He has an elite approach at the plate with a complete unwillingness to chase pitches out of the zone, leading to the second highest on-base percentage (.568, behind Condon's Georgia teammate and Mets sixth rounder Corey Collins) and the second most walks (76, behind A's fourth overall pick Nick Kurtz) in all of Division I. He also has plus pure bat to ball skills to go with that plus-plus approach, grading out to a potential 70 grade hit tool. Unsurprisingly, he never strikes out, neither in Corvallis nor on the Cape. In production terms, this likely means 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. He'll play second base in pro ball, where his plus speed, springy actions, and average arm will make him a potential above average defender. The Guardians are certainly buying his bat first and foremost, but don't let the bat-first label take away from a solid glove. On top of it all, he has been universally praised for his work ethic with an insatiable drive to learn, diving deep into the analytical side of the game and using technology to make himself a better hitter. It's not a perfect comp, but we could be looking at a career somewhat similar to Robinson Cano if Bazzana reaches his peak. He's a bit quicker and draws a few more walks, too. The Guardians had him skip over Low A and start at High A Lake County, where he slashed .238/.369/.396 with three home runs and a 31/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games.

CBA-36: RHP Braylon Doughty, Chaparral HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $2.57 million. Signing bonus: $2.57 million.
My rank: #32. MLB Pipeline: #36. Baseball America: #47.
They resisted it for one pick, but here begins the Guardians' steady march through all the best high school pitching they could find. Floating an arm like Braylon Doughty into the competitive balance round is already a win, but doing so and still signing him for slot value while contending with an Oklahoma State commitment is an even bigger win. Doughty has one of the most electric arms in the prep class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97 with high spin rates albeit with average movement. More than his velocity, he stands out most as having perhaps the best feel for spin in the prep class. His slider looks like a plus pitch with deep, late bite, and he can morph things over into a sharp, truer curveball with power and depth. Like his fastball, everything his high spin, and he can simply disassemble hitters with those two breakers. He has a changeup that is coming along nicely, though like most high school pitchers it's still in its early stages. The 6'1" righty is very balanced in his delivery, showing the ability to vary his leg kick without impacting any of his other mechanics, and that helps him pound the strike zone with above average command by prep standards. There is some moderate projection in the frame, not that he needs it when he's already touching 97, and overall it's a very well-rounded profile. You don't often see this combination of power, feel for spin, and command together. His main things to work on will be finding more life for his fastball as well as bringing his changeup along, of course while holding his command together. There is #2 starter upside here for the Southern California product.

2-48: C Jacob Cozart, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $1.94 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($111,200 above slot value).
My rank: #52. MLB Pipeline: #42. Baseball America: #44.
It's always interesting to see how teams value college catchers, especially those with more balanced skill sets as opposed to one or two standout tools. Jacob Cozart falls into that category with a profile full of average to above average tools. Earning NC State's starting catching job as a freshman in 2022, he broke out for a big sophomore season in 2023 and elevated his stock further with strong performance with the US Collegiate National Team that summer. He entered the spring firmly in the back half of the first round conversation then proceeded to put up a First Team All-ACC junior season, though his stock slipped just a little as other catchers like Walker Janek (now Astros) and Caleb Lomavita (now Nationals) were just a bit more impressive. Cozart sets up from a wide base and creates plenty of leverage at the plate with his strong 6'3" frame, leading to above average power especially to the pull side. He's a reasonably patient hitter who walked at a very high clip in 2024, nearly doubling his walk rate to 18.6% from 10.5% a year ago, showing a strong ability to control the zone that typically comes with advanced catchers. He did swing and miss much more than evaluators were hoping for in 2024, nearing a 30% whiff rate, and his numbers were much better against his non-conference schedule than against strong pitching in ACC conference play (.250/.357/.417). That's certainly a concern going forward, though his ability to stick behind the plate certainly helps a lot. Despite his big, physical frame, he's very flexible behind the plate with the ability to get down and set a low target for pitchers, helping him steal strikes. While Cozart's pure arm strength is closer to average than plus, but he's quick out of the crouch and shows enough accuracy to label the overall throwing ability at least above average. The High Point native's overall feel for catching is better than his pure physical tools, and that gives him a shot to be an above average defensive catcher at the big league level. Overall, we can expect perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which likely puts him closer to the bottom of a competitive lineup than the top, but true everyday catchers are hard to find and Cozart could be that. As with Travis Bazzana, the Guardians skipped him over Low A and sent him straight to High A Lake County, where he struggled to a .119/.245/.143 line and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over thirteen games.

3-84: RHP Joey Oakie, Ankeny Centennial HS [IA] {video}
Slot value: $906,800. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.09 million above slot value).
My rank: #42. MLB Pipeline: #46. Baseball America: #49.
Cleveland's next prep arm is their second largest over slot signing of the draft, going more than a million dollars over slot value to coax Joey Oakie away from an Iowa commitment. His $2 million bonus was just over the slot value of the #47 pick here at #84, and he gives Cleveland a really fun arm to work with. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, but it plays above its velocity with a ton of run and sink from a low slot. His sweeping slider is his best pitch for now, a plus breaker diving across the plate with an excellent combination of power and depth. With further refinement, it could be a plus-plus pitch that makes major league hitters look silly on a regular basis. As with Braylon Doughty, his changeup is behind, but he's flashed some really good ones that make you think it could be an above average pitch in time with more consistency and refinement. It's not a traditional look from Oakie, who utilizes long arm action and a low three quarters slot to sling the ball towards the plate with a flat approach angle that creates and east-west movement profile for his stuff. That arm action can impact his command when he yanks too much across his body, though his misses typically aren't too major and he stays around the zone. The 6'3" righty is plenty physical right now and shows strong athleticism on the mound, getting down the mound well and portending to future average command combined with durability. I'm really interested to see what the Guardians do with him and if they can make him a #2 or #3 starter in the long run. And lastly, I'll add that Joey Oakie is an elite baseball name.

4-113: LHP Rafe Schlesinger, Miami {video}
Slot value: $643,500. Signing bonus: $446,900 ($196,600 below slot value).
My rank: #114. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #148.
Back to the college ranks, Rafe Schlesinger is a really interesting prospect, especially for nearly $200,000 below slot value. A Long Island native, he has channeled Tourette Syndrome to become a legitimate pro pitching prospect. He struggled with command early in his Miami career and spent his first two years in the bullpen, running a 14.3% walk rate in the process, then jumped to the Hurricanes' rotation in 2024 and slashed that walk rate to just 6.7%. A true sidearmer, his fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97, playing up further with nasty running and sinking life from an ultra low release point barely four feet off the ground. For context, that's about two feet lower than a typical release point with about double the running life. He leans heavily on his slider, which flashes plus when located with late sweep, but which has been very inconsistent to this point. He does not use his changeup much and it's a fringy offering at this point. Schlesinger did not always have his best stuff in 2024, at times seeing his fastball dip below 90 as he more than doubled his career high in innings, and a sub-20% strikeout rate is a bit of a red flag. But when he's on, he's a sidearming lefty working into the mid 90's with a nasty slider, and that's a tough matchup. The 6'3" lefty is throwing a lot more strikes than he did in the past, and while his ability to hit spots can be inconsistent, he's certainly trending in the right direction. It's *probably* a fastball/slider relief profile, especially in an organization as deep as Cleveland's when it comes to pitching, but I wouldn't bet against him. If the Guardians can get him built up and performing with his best stuff more consistently while bringing the changeup along and holding the command, he could be a #3 or #4 starting pitcher. In three abbreviated starts for Low A Lynchburg, he allowed four runs across 7.1 innings while striking out eleven and walking three.

5-146: RHP Aidan Major, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $466,900. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($41,900 below slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #245. Baseball America: #108.
Aidan Major is another interesting arm for Cleveland, and another divisive one. He's gotten better and better at West Virginia, including coming out of the gate at his best in 2024 with a string of strong starts early in the season. He did fade a bit down the stretch then got Tommy John surgery after the season, so he slipped a couple rounds in the draft to the Guardians in the fifth round. Major has a low 90's fastball that tops out at 97, playing up with strong riding action from a relatively low release point. He can work it into a cutter, though it's probably just an average pitch. The slider is above average with great sweep, missing plenty of bats, while he uses his average changeup more liberally than most amateur pitchers. The 5'11" righty has a stocky frame that lacks projection, repeating his compact delivery well and showing above average command at times. That command can get streaky though, and it can frequently elude him. Last year, he ran just a 6.7% walk rate as a swingman, but it jumped to 12.0% this year as he slowed down later in the year. There are some durability concerns, especially with the elbow injury, so it remains to be seen whether he can stick in the rotation long term. The balanced four pitch mix and, at times, strong command should be enough to project him as such so long as he can stay not only healthy but at 100%. It will be interesting to see how the Guardians mess with his pitch mix and locations because that fastball/slider combination can be nasty when it's performing at its best.

7-205: RHP Cameron Sullivan, Mount Vernon HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $279,100. Signing bonus: $525,000 ($245,900 above slot value).
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #118. Baseball America: #106.
Going back to the prep ranks for their third high school arm, the Guardians nearly doubled the slot value with a late fourth round-caliber signing bonus to woo Cameron Sullivan away from a Notre Dame commitment. He garnered attention by coming out throwing harder this spring, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching as high as 97 with his fastball nowadays with real zip on it. His slider shape can vary between being more cuttery, taking on a bullet shape, or getting sweepy, but it shows good power and looks at its best when he keeps it tight. His changeup is behind, so for now it's mostly the fastball/slider combination that gets him by. The 6'2" righty has a nice combination of physicality and projection, with a quick, whippy arm that portends to add further power across his arsenal as he gets stronger. It's an athletic operation on the mound, though he does reach back to reach his peak velocities with a higher effort delivery, and that can impact his command. There's significant reliever risk in this profile if his offspeed stuff can't get more consistent and he can't bring that command along, though the physicality, projection, and athleticism are hard to pass up for this relatively modest half a million dollar signing bonus.

9-265: RHP Sean Matson, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $195,700. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($20,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #290.
Last year, the Guardians used their ninth round pick on Harvard righty Jay Driver, who rewarded them with a strong season at High A Lake County this year. They did the exact same thing in 2024, grabbing Harvard righty Sean Matson in the ninth round in hopes that both can be part of the Cleveland pitching staff one day. Matson has spent most of the past three seasons in the Crimson rotation, having shined in the Cape Cod League with a 0.30 ERA and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings, before embarking on his best collegiate season yet in 2024. He's not overpowering, sitting around 90 as a starter and more comfortably in the low 90's in the bullpen, touching 93. The fastball plays way above its velocity though as a combination of massive riding life and excellent extension down the mound help it get on hitters much quicker than they expect and sneak by bats at a high rate. He had success with the pitch against mediocre competition in the Ivy League and he had even more success against excellent competition on the Cape. Matson's changeup is another weapon, coming in much slower than the typical changeup before tumbling off the table. His slider has been a bit less consistent, showing nasty sweep on the Cape but looking more like a fringy offering at school where it got hit more than you'd like by Ivy League hitters. He's also experimented with a curveball that he doesn't use much. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and does a good job pounding the strike zone, giving him a chance to start if he can get more consistent with his breaking balls. If not, the fastball/changeup combination could be lethal in short stints with their unique movement profiles. This will be a fun one to follow, though he did turn 22 before the draft putting him on the older side for a junior.

10-295: RHP Chase Mobley, Durant HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $183,600. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($1.62 million above slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #80. Baseball America: #84.
The Guardians reached the end of day two with a ton of bonus pool money left over, so you knew a splash was coming at some point. They unloaded in the tenth round, singing yet another prep arm in Chase Mobley to a massive bonus roughly the slot value of the #51 overall pick, mid-second round, so that he shouldn't attend Florida State. Mobley has an electric right arm and has the chance to be the best prep of the class for the Guardians. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but can reach 99 at peak with running action. His slider took a step forward in 2024 as he added power to a pitch that already had nice depth, giving it a shot to become an above average pitch in time if he can tighten it up further. Unlike the other preps in this class, Mobley has an advanced changeup that can show true off the table action when he gets it right, giving it a shot to become plus in time. His mechanics divided some evaluators, though, as his short arm circle features an elbow stab in the back as he leans back over his drive foot. From there, his arm can be a bit late going forward with a three quarters slot. The overall delivery is fairly raw, but Mobley's arm strength is so explosive that you really won't find much like it around the country in the high school ranks. The 6'5" righty is tremendously projectable and should throw with less effort as he gets stronger and works with Cleveland's development staff, with his youth (only turned 18 a month before the draft) working in his favor as well. Despite the funky arm, he does stay around the zone pretty well and could have average command with further development.

14-415: OF Ryan Cesarini, St. Joseph's {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is a really nice sleeper profile in the middle of day three. A fairly unheralded recruit out of the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area, he spent his freshman season at St. Joe's on the bench but once he seized playing time for the Hawks, he never let it go, slashing .387/.468/.622 with sixteen home runs and 28 stolen bases in 84 games over the past two seasons. In fact, he was at his very best right at the end of the season, because after going 0-5 in an opening round loss to VCU at the A-10 Tournament, he went 12-18 with three doubles, five home runs, and just two strikeouts over his final four games in Tysons Corner. That's a .667/.714/1.667 line if you're keeping track. Listed at 5'10", 205 pounds, Cesarini is not a big guy put backs plenty of strength and athleticism into his powderkeg frame. It's a compact left handed swing that helps him make a ton of contact against unremarkable A-10 pitching, with just a 13.1% career strikeout rate that reached a career low 11.8% in 2024. Though he only hit three home runs in his first 28 games in 2024, those five in his final four brought him to eight on the season and he shows more pop than you'd expect from a smaller guy, with impressive top-end exit velocities that help him project for potentially average power. Obviously he's untested against higher level pitching, but that's a really, really nice combination of contact and power for this part of the draft. Beyond that, Cesarini is a plus runner with a shot to stick in center field, giving him potentially average or better grades in all five tools. Honestly, this is one of my favorite under the radar picks that could seem like org depth to the naked eye. Indeed he performed very well in a small sample at Low A Lynchburg, slashing .283/.370/.543 with three stolen bases and a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio in thirteen games.

2024 MLB Draft: Ten candidates to go first overall

The 2024 draft season is upon us, and the 76-86 Cleveland Guardians own the first overall pick. Thanks to the draft lottery, with a .469 winning percentage last year, they'll be the best team ever to pick first overall by that measure. For that reason it's a great time to be a Guardians fan, as the team will have a slew of elite bats available to them in a class heavily favoring college hitters. As it turns out, the 71-91 Nationals actually won the lottery, but were ineligible to claim the first overall pick because they picked second last year. At this point, three position players seem to have separated themselves at the top of the draft in Oregon State's Travis Bazzana, West Virginia's JJ Wetherholt, and Wake Forest's Nick Kurtz. Of course, lots will change between now and July, and the gap between those three and the rest of the class is fairly slim as is. Overall, though, the top of the class is chock full of college bats, including the top six players on my current draft rankings (including one two-way player). The top of the high school class is a bit light for now, but that will also likely change between now and July.

The Guardians have shown a very clear draft strategy for a while now, especially in their position players. When it comes to position players, they love three things – youth, a polished hit tool, and the ability to stick up the middle. Fortunately for them, in this year's class, there are a ton of bats that fit those qualifications. Let's break down ten early candidates heading into the season.

2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State. My rank: #1.
Travis Bazzana isn't quite as young as the Guardians typically like, set to turn 22 before the end of his first pro season this upcoming summer, but I would take a long, long look at him if I were them. The Australian slugger broke out in 2023 by slashing .374/.500/.622 with eleven home runs as a sophomore at Oregon State, then continued his white hot hitting against elite pitching on the Cape with a .382/.474/.576 line over 36 games. An extraordinarily disciplined hitter, he walked more than he struck out both at Oregon State and on the Cape, the latter of which is exceedingly uncommon for a slugger. Beyond his trained eye at the plate, he has strong bat to ball ability and his compact strength in his 6' frame gives him at least above average power, likely plus to the pull side. It's an extremely complete offensive profile with the potential for 20+ home runs annually alongside on-base percentages approaching .400. Beyond the bat, he's a plus runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts (88% success) in 97 games combined between OSU and the Cape this year. Defensively, he fits Cleveland's up the middle preference with bouncy, athletic actions on the dirt that will make him a strong defender at second base. There's some potential at shortstop, though his average arm is a touch light for the position.
What he needs to do: Keep hitting, plain and simple. Bazzana already ranks first on my list, albeit by a slim margin. His speed and defense give him a leg up on some of the other early 1-1 candidates, so continuing to hit at a high level gives him every chance to hear his name first.

2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia. My rank: #2.
JJ Wetherholt brings a very similar profile to Travis Bazzana. He's coming off an absurd sophomore season in which he hit .449/.517/.787 with 16 home runs for West Virginia, then raked both with the US Collegiate National Team (.263/.481/.579) and on the Cape (.321/.406/.571). Similar to Bazzana, he's on the older side and will turn 22 right around the end of his first pro season, but also like Bazzana, the bat is so loud that he'll be hard to ignore. Personally, I set Bazzana slightly ahead because he's a bit more explosive as an athlete and a bit more disciplined at the plate, but Wetherholt is every bit the ballplayer that Bazzana is. The pure bat to ball here is absolutely elite, some of the best not just in this class but in the past several classes. In fact, he struck out just once in 32 plate appearances against elite pitching on the Cape, and this is despite running moderately high chase rates. Wetherholt can simply get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it's pitched. While he's not physically imposing at 5'11", that elite feel for the barrel helps his average raw power play way up in games with a barrage of extra base hits and the ability to sneak the ball out to all fields. An above average runner, the Pittsburgh-area product has strong instincts on the bases to help the speed play as plus in terms of its ability to impact games. The speed gives him nice range at second base, though he doesn't quite have the arm or explosive athleticism required to play shortstop in pro ball.
What he needs to do: For me, Bazzana has a slight, slight leg up at this point due to his patience and explosiveness. However, Wetherholt did have a better season statistically than Bazzana did last year and if both repeat their 2023 numbers, it would be hard to bet against Wetherholt. Dropping his chase rate just a touch while proving his defense at second base would likely make him the favorite to go 1-1.

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest. My rank: #3.
Nick Kurtz doesn't exactly fit the Guardians' archetype as a power hitting first baseman, and if the draft were today, I think Cleveland would be choosing between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. However, Kurtz brings the most potent bat in the entire class, bar none, and any minor steps back from Wetherholt or Bazzana could push Kurtz straight to the top of the pack. He's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he slashed .353/.527/.784 with 24 home runs, and that .527 on-base percentage was the tops among all underclassmen nationwide, just ahead of second place Wetherholt (.517). In Kurtz, we're talking massive power. Standing 6'5" and weighing in at 235 pounds, he uses that big frame to generate effortless power from the left side, just dropping his hands to the ball, whipping the bat through the zone, and sending it out to parking lots in all directions. Not just a slugger, Kurtz pairs that plus-plus raw power with an extremely polished hit tool. He rarely chases and draws a ton of walks, and when pitchers come in the zone, his swing is plenty adjustable to be able to reach balls in all quadrants and do damage.  You really have to execute your game plan to perfection, then find some luck on top of that, to get him out. Pitchers did so less than half the time last year. The vast majority of Kurtz's value is tied to his bat, but the Lancaster, Pennsylvania native is more agile than you'd think for a kid that big and plays a very fine first base. Overall, he could become a 40 home run bat with high on-base percentages at peak, giving the Guardians a brand new Jim Thome.
What he needs to do: I don't think there's much he can do necessarily. Kurtz is already the best hitter in the draft, and there's a good chance he still is come July. Many teams, especially the Guardians, will look for any excuse to avoid a first baseman at the top of the draft, so his best hope is likely if Bazzana and Wetherholt fail to take the next step forward in 2024. This is absolutely not a criticism of Kurtz, but more the reality of how the Guardians and other teams view players this far down the defensive spectrum.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
This is the most fun profile at the top of the draft. It's natural to think of Shohei Ohtani when evaluating two-way players, but I really think that comp carries some weight here. Listed at 6'5", 245 pounds, Jac Caglianone is an absolute beast of a man with the ability to channel his immense size and strength into impact on both sides of the ball. He slashed .323/.389/.738 as a sophomore while setting the single season BBCOR era (since 2011) home run record at 33, carrying Florida to the College World Series Finals against LSU. The raw power here is frankly unbelievable. Caglianone has long, strong arms and legs and unleashes them for absolutely towering home runs at an extraordinarily high frequency – he homered more than once every ten plate appearances in 2023. His hand-eye coordination is also extremely impressive for such a tall, young kid. At this point, his approach is extremely raw and will need to be refined in pro ball. The Tampa native employs a heavy pull-oriented approach, allowing him to wallop baseballs into parking lots in right field, and his strength also enables his mishits to go land beyond the left field fence. He's also extremely aggressive, walking at just a 5.3% clip last year and running a slightly elevated 18.2% strikeout rate. He'll have to clean that up if he wants to handle pro pitching, as he's limited to first base with below average speed and the pressure will be on his bat. "CagliOhtani" is equally impressive on the mound, having posted a 4.34 ERA and an 87/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings this past season. The lefty can run his fastball into triple digits with some run and ride, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. His power slider gets into the upper 80's and he can morph it into a bit of a cutter, while his changeup gets nice fade to round out a four pitch mix. At this point, he struggles to repeat his crossfire delivery and that led to a 16% walk rate. Caglianone was very inconsistent in 2023, his first year pitching at the collegiate level, and has not shown the ability to hit spots with any repeatability. Overall, we're talking about the highest upside in the entire draft, upside which will come into focus once he focuses on one or the other.
What he needs to do: For Caglianone, it's pretty clear. As a hitter, he'll need to clean up his approach, plain and simple. That means using the whole field with intention and laying off breaking balls out of the zone. On the mound, he'll need to show a cleaner delivery and take a step forward with one of his secondary pitches. If he can finish that to-do list on one side of the ball or the other, I'd give him a long look at 1-1.

SS Seaver King, Wake Forest. My rank: #5.
Seaver King fits the Guardians' profile to a tee. He spent the last two years at Division II Wingate, but mashed to the tune of a .408/.453/.695 line with eleven home runs in 2023 and it became clear he did not belong at the level. Challenged with a stint in the Cape Cod League, representing a massive jump in competition for him, he passed with flying colors by slashing .424/.479/.542 in 16 games, thrusting himself into the first round picture just like that. This profile is driven by bat to ball. King has elite hand-eye coordination, covering the entire plate exceptionally well to the point where he almost never swings through a hittable pitch. Even after jumping from DII to Cape Cod League pitching, he ran just a 12.9% strikeout rate at the latter. At present, he's a very aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact on balls out of the zone as well, so he rarely walks, though in the small sample his walk rate jumped from 7.3% at Wingate to 10% on the Cape. It will be very interesting to see how King's approach develops at Wake Forest, where he'll face stronger pitching with better scouting reports and won't be able to get away with chasing as often as he does. The Athens, Georgia native is not overly physical at a listed 6', 190 pounds, but he shows a very quick bat from the right side and shows some sneaky power, especially to the pull side. His present approach, which seems unlikely to change, is more geared towards lashing hard line drives to all fields so he likely tops out around 15-20 home runs per season. Beyond the bat, King is a plus runner with nice range on the infield, and with an arm a tick better than that of Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt, he has a better shot to play shortstop at the big league level.
What he needs to do: King is transferring up from Division II to the ACC. He'll need to control the strike zone a little bit better against better stuff, and an uptick to fringe average or average power would be nice as well. If he can continue hitting like he did on the Cape, getting on base at a high clip while showing some power, it will be hard for Cleveland to pass up a potential high average, speedy shortstop.

OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina. My rank: #6.
So far, every player on this list is coming off a monster season, but Vance Honeycutt isn't quite in the same boat. He took the ACC by storm with a strong freshman season in 2022, but regressed to slash just .257/.418/.492 with 12 home runs as a sophomore in 2023. However, he has as much upside as any player in this class and could easily swing his way to the first overall selection if everything comes together. Ideally built with an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame, he's plenty strong already and figures to get even stronger as he fills out. Honeycutt employs a lightning quick right handed swing and shows the ability to elevate with authority, helping him project for plus power in pro ball. He also employs a very selective approach and forces pitchers to come to him, though his pure feel for the barrel leaves some to desired and represents the biggest hole in his game. The North Carolina native really shored up his approach in 2023 but didn't hit for nearly as much impact, watching his slugging percentage drop from .672 to .492. A plus runner, he is a fearless defender in center field who made numerous highlight reel catches at the wall last year. Between his speed, his polish in the grass, and his plus arm, he has a shot to contend for Gold Gloves in center field.
What he needs to do: The road for Honeycutt is clear. He needs to find a way to make more contact in the zone while maintaining his power, which can be a tricky task. If he can do that, though, he has All Star upside as a Gold Glove center fielder who hits for power and steals bases at a high clip.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #7.
At this point last year, Chase Dollander was the consensus top pitching prospect in the country. This year, no single pitcher has separated himself from the pack, and there is a group of three to four college arms that all find themselves more or less in the same tier. Chase Burns has the slightest of edges in that group right now, and I also think he's the most likely to both earn his way to the top and also fit in with Cleveland's plans. Burns was a big name prospect coming out of the Nashville area in 2021, but made it to campus at Tennessee and made an immediate impact, putting up a 3.54 ERA and a 217/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings during his two seasons in Knoxville. Transferring across the Smokies to Wake Forest, he could take another step forward in the program's famous pitching lab that has given us first rounders Rhett Lowder, Jared Shuster, and Ryan Cusick among many other success stories. While Burns is power over polish, he's steadily improving in the latter department and would fit well in Cleveland. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and regularly reaches triple digits, enough to blow hitters away even when he doesn't locate it precisely. The real story here is an absolute banger of a slider, which peaks its head into the low 90's with nasty late bite to make hitters look just straight up silly. Mostly just a fastball/slider guy for now, he's beginning to incorporate his curveball and changeup into his arsenal more and I expect those to take a larger role now in the Wake system. The 6'4" righty smoothed out his delivery nicely at Tennessee since looking a bit relieverish as a high schooler, and the result has been a consistent barrage of strikes. He's a bit lacking when it comes to in-zone command, but when your fastball touches triple digits and your slider sits around 90, just getting it in the zone is often good enough. Anybody who throws as hard as he does is always an injury question mark, though he otherwise appears durable.
What he needs to do: The fastball and slider are there. Now, he needs to show he can effectively work deeper into his arsenal by incorporating that curveball and changeup. Burns also needs to fine tune his command a bit to land in Cleveland, as pounding the strike zone like he does will be enough to get him to the big leagues but better in-zone command will make him an ace.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #9.
Hagen Smith, like Chase Burns, was a well-known prep coming out of the East Texas high school ranks in 2021 and made it to campus in the SEC, and now he joins Burns in that top tier of arms in 2024. While he hasn't quite put it all together yet, he has turned in two very solid seasons in the Razorbacks rotation and brings some of the loudest upside in the class to 2024. The fastball has been steadily ticking up for a while now, typically parking in the low to mid 90's last spring and reportedly reaching triple digits in the fall. He's still learning to harness his slider, but his best ones have late, nasty, two-plane bite that makes it easy to project as a plus pitch. Similarly, Smith's splitter is a bit less consistent than his slider, but it too shows above average upside. The 6'3" lefty comes from a lower slot with an unconventional delivery, providing some deception and giving his fastball tough plane to go with some run and ride. That delivery, which features heavy drop and drive and somewhat of a stabby arm action, has led to below average command to this point. Given the fact that he has made 26 starts and thrown 149 innings over his first two years in Fayetteville while showing a solid 4.17 ERA and a 199/88 strikeout to walk ratio, it hasn't held him back yet, and he has every opportunity to make further progress as he settles into his draft year. If he can fine tune his command closer to average, he has real ace upside with three potential above average to plus pitches. The fact that he won't turn 21 until the end of his first pro season will also certainly look good in the Guardians' age-friendly draft model.
What he needs to do: Smith is already touching triple digits while showing off a banger slider, and he's proven he can hold his stuff deep into starts and over a long season. At this point, only his command is holding him back from ascending to the top of the draft. Cut that 13.5% walk rate down to around 7-8% and he'll be in business.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank: #10.
The Guardians love preps, especially prep bats, but none have separated themselves into the elite tier quite yet. As it stands, Konnor Griffin is the closest. Formerly a member of the 2025 class, he was extremely old for a high school junior so he reclassified to the 2024 class so he could compete with peers his age. Standing 6'4", 205 pounds, he's already built like a grown man and has the ideal frame to tack on significant additional strength. He generates huge bat speed from the right side to produce above average power at present, and it will almost certainly grow into plus as he matures. His hit tool is a bit less consistent, as the swing can get long at times, but he takes good at bats and he has been making more and more contact as he's settled in against strong competition on the showcase circuit. Meanwhile, Griffin is an athletic beast with plus speed and a plus arm that play well in the outfield, giving him a shot to be an above average center fielder down the line. There are some similarities Benny Montgomery and Zac Veen here, though he's more polished than the former and quicker and more athletic (and more right handed) than the latter. Between his youth, projection, and ability to stick up the middle, Griffin checks a lot of boxes the Guardians look for, though they do prefer hit-over-power to power-over-hit.
What he needs to do: The only thing Griffin is missing in his profile is a consistent hit tool, so if he can come out showing less in-zone swing and miss while continuing to tap his power in games, he should absolutely be in contention for the first overall pick.

SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI]. My rank: #15.
I'll slip Caleb Bonemer in as the dark horse candidate. Generally considered more of a mid to back of the first round talent at this point, Bonemer likely wouldn't be under consideration for Cleveland if the draft was today, but he has a chance to hit his way there this spring a la Jackson Holliday. In fact, Bonemer is already trending hard in the right direction. Not widely known to national audiences at this time last year, he was one of the top performers on the summer showcase circuit, especially later on once he got settled in. Not huge at six feet tall, he can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them for above average power and he should grow into plus power as he fills out. The Lansing-area native also makes plenty of contact in the zone, especially for a cold weather bat, though there are holes in his approach that were exposed a bit by advanced pitching. Still, he's getting better and better in that regard and it's the belief of most scouts that he just needs more exposure. Meanwhile, the Guardians will love his potential to stick up the middle. He's a plus runner with the athleticism and arm strength to stick at shortstop, though if he slows down at all he may be forced to third base, especially in a Cleveland system that always seems to be flush with shortstops. The upside here is that of a 25 home run, moderate on-base bat that can stick at shortstop and swipe a few bags in the process.
What he needs to do: Bonemer is farther away from the 1-1 slot than the other nine names on this list. He won't face extremely high level competition in central Michigan, but if he continues to grow into his power while controlling the strike zone a bit better, Jackson Holliday provides a nice blueprint for his ascent. Holliday was a more advanced hitter at this stage, but Bonemer is more physical and both play off the beaten path a little (Holliday played in Stillwater, Oklahoma).

Other options
RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa (#8)
OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern (#11)
OF Charlie Condon, Georgia (#12)
OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M (#14)
OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] (#17)

2023 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

I usually love the way the Guardians draft, though I'm not as high on this class for them. It was an on-brand class, focusing on youth, hit tools (very, very much on hit tools), and up the middle talent if you count Ralphy Velazquez as a catcher. I don't think you could call any of the nine position players they drafted "power hitters," and a few of the mid-round guys have pretty extreme hit tool-driven profiles. They focused on bats early before pivoting to arms later, a strategy I typically like, though the Guardians are one of the best organizations in the country at developing pitching. Interestingly enough, at one point they rattled off a stretch of six straight picks from the ACC.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-23: C Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($880,900 below slot value).
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #29. Prospects Live: #45.
In Ralphy Velazquez, the Guardians might have found the most advanced high school hitter in the country not named Walker Jenkins or Max Clark. When you watch him hit, it's clear he's just on another level relative to his competition even at star-studded showcase events. Velazquez is extremely patient at the plate, effectively identifying fastballs and offspeed stuff and finding pitches he can do damage on. When he does get fooled, he makes adjustments and you'll never beat him with the same pitch twice. And when he gets something to hit, he unloads with a powerful left handed swing, effectively elevating the ball and driving it out to all fields. He can also shorten up with and just get the barrel on the ball when he needs to, and overall there's not much he does wrong at the plate at all. If there's one qualm with his offensive game, it's that he's not an explosive or quick-twitch athlete – he's just an average mover in the box, but one that executes the fundamentals. That may limit his offensive upside a little bit, with his power coming more from the ability to consistent ability to barrel the ball rather than explosive bat speed or strength. Defensively, the Southern California native has been improving behind the plate but still has a long way to go, with strong fundamentals but an overall lack of that quick twitch athleticism to jump in front of dirt balls. His arm is accurate, but the pure arm strength there is just average. Bolstering Velazquez's profile is his youth, having only turned 18 in May, yet he should still move quickly. There's not much to teach a kid like this, at least offensively – you just have to guide his development and help him adjust to life in pro ball. It's likely an Eric Hosmer or Jacob Berry-like profile with 15-20, maybe 25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages at first base, but if he can stick behind the plate, the profile becomes a lot more attractive and he goes from Eric Hosmer to a bigger Carlos Santana. He also saved Cleveland almost $900,000 against slot value by signing closer to the value of the 34th pick, giving up an Arizona State commitment in the process.

2-58: LHP Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken HS [RI] {video}
Slot value: $1.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($897,400 above slot value).
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #49. Prospects Live: #40.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Ralphy Velazquez, the Guardians immediately turned and spent all of it and then some on Alex Clemmey, giving him close to the slot value for the 37th pick here at #58 overall to divert him from a Vanderbilt commitment. He's just about the polar opposite to Velazquez, and not just because he grew up over 2500 miles away in the opposite corner of the country. While Velazquez is an advanced player with strong fundamentals but lacking in explosive athleticism, Clemmey comes in with one of the most electric arms in the entire country and a glaring lack of refinement. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but can reach back for as much as 99, with riding life from a lower arm slot that could make it a plus-plus pitch. He's still figuring out his breaking ball, which looks like a slider at times and a curveball at others, but it has plenty of depth and plays well out of his slot, with the chance to be a plus pitch in its own right as he gets more consistent with it. The changeup right now is a distant third pitch, but that's not surprising for a raw talent out of New England. However, the biggest area that needs immediate development and attention is his delivery and command. The 6'6" lefty has very long arm action in the back which gives way to significant head whack, leading to below average command and creating significant reliever risk. At the same time, though, he's a tremendous athlete that gets down the mound well and is extremely young for the class, turning 18 shortly after the draft, and he should be very receptive to pro coaching. The ceiling is very high if the Guardians get this one right, but he has a long way to go if he wants to remain a starting pitcher.

CBB-62: RHP Andrew Walters, Miami {video}
Slot value: $1.27 million. Signing bonus: $955,275 ($318,425 below slot value).
My rank: #95. MLB Pipeline: #124. Baseball America: #133. Prospects Live: #68.
Andrew Walters had a chance to go in the top handful of rounds last year, but opted to return to Miami and it looks like he may have earned himself some money, signing for nearly a million dollars (well below slot value, early third round money, around #75 overall). He has been one of the best relievers in college baseball ever since he stepped foot on campus at Miami after a year at Eastern Florida State, with a career 1.41 ERA and a 170/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings. In fact, over the past two seasons he has run an even better 134/13 strikeout to walk ratio, good for a 45.7% strikeout rate and just a 4.4% walk rate. Interestingly enough, Walters gets it done more or less with one pitch. His elite fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 98, but plays like an invisiball with great riding action and the ability to hide it well. Beyond its velocity and deception, he also spots it with precision around the zone, and all together it alone has left hitters confounded throughout the ACC for three years now. The 6'4" righty has worked hard to incorporate his offspeed stuff better, with an improving slider and splitter that will help keep pro hitters honest, but the showstopper here is the fastball. We can look to former Arkansas star reliever Kevin Kopps as a bit of a comparison here, as he dominated the SEC on his cutter/slider alone and was old for the class when he was drafted, but that's still different from a fastball and he was 24 when he was drafted versus Walters being 22. Kopps reached AA almost immediately after being drafted but has stagnated there for a couple of seasons, and Walters will look to push past that and become the Guardians' next great closer. One of the better closers in recent team history, two time All Star Chris Perez, was also a Miami Hurricane.

3-93: 1B CJ Kayfus, Miami {video}
Slot value: $725,300. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($25,300 below slot value).
My rank: #194. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #108. Prospects Live: #114.
The Guardians went back to Miami for the second straight pick, this time grabbing a first baseman with one of the better pure hit tools in the class. CJ Kayfus has been a model of consistency over the past two seasons, slashing .357/.462/.553 with 21 home runs and an 80/84 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games combined. He has tremendous feel for hitting with an extremely professional approach and the mindset of barrel to ball, nothing more. It's a quick, short left handed swing that generates moderate power with some whip through the zone, and he repeats it well in order to get his barrel on the ball all over the zone. He's also disciplined, walking at a 15.9% clip in 2023 while keeping his strikeout rate down and chasing less than a quarter of the time. The South Florida native is not overly physical, standing at 6', 190 pounds, and to me his overall offensive ceiling might be a bit limited with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 103, a moderate number. Kayfus doesn't offer a ton of value with the glove, having played mostly an adequate first base at Miami, but he has some moderate speed and may be able to handle left field fairly well if Cleveland wants at least a little bit of positional flexibility. Overall, he's much more of a pure hitter than a pure athlete, and his .299/.384/.351 slash line on the Cape last summer might be indicative of his MLB upside. If he can tap a little more power, that's an every day profile even if he's stuck at first base.

4-125: C Cooper Ingle, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $526,400. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($126,200 below slot value).
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #232. Baseball America: #170. Prospects Live: #207.
I've been much higher on Cooper Ingle than most of the industry throughout the process, so I like the Guardians getting him here in the fourth round while spending mid-fifth round money. He barely played as a freshman at Clemson, but broke out for a huge sophomore season (.351/.449/.526) before coming down to Earth a little as a junior (.328/.417/.461, 6 HR, 29/39 K/BB). Ingle is a fascinating hitter. Undersized at 5'10", he deploys a lightning quick left handed swing to shoot lasers around the park, focusing much more on contact than ever trying to turn on and lift the ball. At the same time, he's an extremely disciplined hitter than only chases around 20% of the time, leading to exceptional contact rates closing in on 90%. That slasher approach played up on the Cape, where he ran a .401 on-base percentage against elite pitching, but also slugged just .319. I'm curious to see what the Guardians do with his bat – with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 103 (a hair below CJ Kayfus), the power is fringy at best and he's not a big guy, but Ingle is generating that number without actually trying, at all, to hit for power. If he learns to turn on the ball and look to drive it in the air, I could see him approaching annual home run totals in the teens. But that's usually not how the Guardians develop their hitters and I expect they'll keep him in this slasher mentality, where he should run up high on-base percentages while rarely striking out but may struggle to reach double digit home run totals. Similar to first rounder Ralphy Velazquez, there are some questions about his ability to stick behind the plate, but for different reasons. He's nimble for the position, but not overly physical and his arm is just average. He also has spent significant time in the outfield for Clemson, splitting catching duties with Jacob Jarrell in 2023. If the Asheville native can stick as a catcher, the offensive profile should work just fine. If he's forced to a corner outfield spot, he suddenly looks a little more like a fourth/fifth outfielder.

5-161: SS Christian Knapczyk, Louisville {video}
Slot value: $371,000. Signing bonus: $385,000 ($14,000 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #157. Baseball America: #100. Prospects Live: #98.
Christian Knapczyk makes it a third straight hit over power profile for the Guardians (what else is new), but in this case he's even more extreme than both CJ Kayfus and Cooper Ingle. Knapczyk has been one of the peskiest hitters in the ACC over the past two seasons, combining to slash .339/.469/.440 with three home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 46/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games. Even before that, he played on the Cape after his freshman season in 2021 and slashed .346/.423/.431, which is incredibly impressive for a 19 year old. Knapczyk is an extreme contact hitter with a slap-hitter approach, just peppering the ball around the field with little intent to do damage and instead using his plus speed to pick up extra bases. Standing just 5'9" and listed at 165 pounds, it's unlikely that he ever grows into even fringy power, with the ultimate offensive upside most likely limited to single digit home run totals and high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. He's a fairly disciplined hitter that doesn't chase much, but he makes so much contact that it also cuts into his walk totals even though he never strikes out (just a 9% K rate in 2023). Defensively, his plus speed gives him a shot to stick at shortstop, but he's a smaller guy whose arm might fit better at second base, where he could be an above average defender. It's probably a utility infield profile in the end for the Chicago-area product.

6-188: OF Tommy Hawke, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $295,000. Signing bonus: $295,000.
My rank: #187. MLB Pipeline: #238. Baseball America: #163. Prospects Live: #152.
In Tommy Hawke, the Guardians get almost an identical player to Christian Knapczyk except that he's even smaller and plays outfield instead of infield. Hawke has been just as pesky in the ACC as Knapczyk over the past two seasons, slashing .362/.474/.489 with nine home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 88/91 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games for Wake Forest. Generously listed at 5'8", he clocks in at just 155 pounds so he's coming in an inch shorter and ten pounds lighter than the already diminutive Knapczyk. He swings with a little more intent than Knapczyk, with the ability to turn on the ball and send it out if the wind is blowing out, and but ultimately ends up with almost the same offensive profile because he has very little raw power and his elite bat to ball skills help him get to balls all over the zone anyways. He's a little more patient than Knapczyk and also an even faster runner, clocking in at plus-plus at times, so his stat line might not be as solely reliant on his batting average, but it's still similar. That speed will help him stick in center field, though as you might expect he doesn't have much of an arm. He profiles best as a speedy fourth outfielder, and because he's eligible as a sophomore, he's young and only turned 21 just before the draft.

7-218: SS Alex Mooney, Duke {video}
Slot value: $231,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($768,700 above slot value).
My rank: #96. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #83. Prospects Live: #94.
Another draft-eligible sophomore and the Guardians' sixth straight pick from the ACC, Alex Mooney signed way above slot value and in fact got early third round money (in fact just below the slot value for pick #72) here in the seventh round at #218 overall. I've always been interested in Mooney, who had serious top two round buzz coming out of high school in the Detroit area and ranked #49 on my 2021 list. Mooney has seen steady growth at Duke, slashing .292/.393/.392 as a freshman before improving to .315/.434/.504 with eight home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 43/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games as a sophomore in 2023. He lacks a standout tool, but he does almost everything well on the diamond and that's why I'm interested here. Mooney has a fairly advanced approach at the plate, with selective aggression that leads to moderately elevated chase rates, but he has strong bat to ball skills that keep his strikeout rates down. He also shows quick, accurate hands in the box that help guide the barrel all around the zone, making flush, line drive contact on pitches up, down, in, and out. The power began to tick up in 2023, but it's still below average and he'll need to continue to fill out his 6'1" frame in order to continue to tap it with wood bats. I'm slightly concerned about the low exit velocities, but only slightly and I do think increased strength will come and help him hit 10-15 home runs per season at the major league level. On the other side of the ball, he has a strong internal clock and good feel for the shortstop position, though he's more of an above average runner than a plus one and may not be quite explosive enough to stick there in the long term. In giving him a million dollars to sign, the Guardians clearly believe he has a good shot and I think he does have a chance. The youth certainly helps and I think Mooney has a chance to become a "boring good" everyday player that slots in at 2B or 3B with some pop and solid on-base percentages.

9-278: RHP Jay Driver, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $174,300. Signing bonus: $151,000 ($23,300 below slot value).
My rank: #162. MLB Pipeline: #241. Baseball America: #245. Prospects Live: #333.
I love Cooper Ingle, but this is probably my favorite pick of the draft for the Guardians, who get a potential high leverage reliever for less than slot value in the ninth round. The Ivy League stole Jay Driver's freshman year when they inexplicably cancelled the entire 2021 season, but he showed extremely well as a redshirt freshman reliever in 2022 before embarking on a successful Cape Cod League run where he struck out 48 batters in 29.2 innings. There was a lot of buzz around the local Boston-area kid heading into 2023 as Harvard announced it would move him to the rotation, but he pitched to mixed results with a 4.41 ERA and a 69/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings against relatively weak competition. At his best, he sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with running and sinking action, but his velocity dipped closer to 90 in longer outings as a starter. His best pitch is a frisbee slider that dives across the plate, though it too flattened out in his starts. Driver is primarily a two pitch pitcher, with his changeup needing considerable work in pro ball. Everything gets extra deception from a unique delivery, in which he gets deep into his glutes driving down the mound and releases from a low three quarters slot, effectively hiding the ball and delivering it from a unique spot. If I'm the Guardians, I'm moving him straight back to the bullpen where his fastball/slider combination can hopefully get back to its former glory. If that works, he'll have a pair of plus pitches with average command from a deceptive slot, and could easily become an impact reliever in the near future.

13-398: LHP Jacob Bresnahan, Sumner HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($225,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #491. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jacob Bresnahan is a projection play for the Guardians, and they believe in him enough that they gave him fifth round money to sign here in the thirteenth round rather than fulfill an Oregon commitment. He's a bit of a late bloomer and his fastball just started to peak over 90 this spring, topping out around 92, while his breaking ball and changeup are coming along. It's a big looping breaking ball that needs power, while his changeup looks like a solid option and is probably progressing a little faster. He's a big, lanky lefty with a very projectable 6'4" frame and a loose delivery, so as he fills out the Guardians will almost certainly help him tack on considerable velocity. Young for the class having turned 18 shortly before the draft, the Tacoma-area native will need to be brought along slowly but could pay off nicely in time.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

The Guardians stayed very on brand here, and the result is a draft class full of guys I like. They went below slot on seven of their first eight picks but still grabbed a ton of talent in the process, then went all in on two over slot talents in the eighth and tenth rounds. As usual, the focus was on crafty college pitching, high-upside, extra young prep arms, and hit-over-power college bats almost exclusively. Between Joe Lampe, Nate Furman, Guy Lipscomb, Tyresse Turner, Pres Cavenaugh, and Angel Zarate, opposing defenses will have to stay on their toes at all times with a ton of balls in play, while first rounder Chase DeLauter brings virtually all of the power in this class. Parker Messick is one of my favorite picks of the draft, while Javier Santos has a chance to be a massive bargain as an under slot eighth rounder and Jacob Zibin could be a steal in the tenth round, though he did sign for second round money. A lot of fun names here.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-16: OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison. My rank: #14.
Slot value: $3.94 million. Signing bonus: $3.75 million ($187,600 below slot value).
We all know the Guardians love pitching and develop it well, but they're not just going to ignore a great hitter that falls into their laps. Chase DeLauter raked over his first two seasons at James Madison University in Virginia, then pushed himself into top five consideration by slashing .298/.397/.589 with nine home runs and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18) in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He lost some of that luster when he looked overmatched in a season-opening matchup against Florida State lefties Parker Messick (also drafted by the Guardians), Bryce Hubbart (Reds), and Ross Dunn, and even though he recovered to slash .437/.576/.828 with eight home runs and a 21/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games, he never quite built his stock back up. DeLauter's season came to a premature end when he broke his foot in April, giving him unbelievable career numbers at JMU: 15 home runs, .402/.520/.715, 45/62 strikeout to walk ratio in 66 games. He shows plus raw power from the left side, tapping it consistently with wood bats and against elite pitching. It's a product of a big, strong, 6'4" frame and a loose, easy uppercut. The eastern West Virginia native is also extremely disciplined in the box, rarely ever getting himself out and punishing pitchers when they do come into his zone. Doubters will point to a relatively light schedule in the Colonial Athletic Association (he got hurt just before a series against Northeastern that would have pitted him against two of the conference's top draft arms, Yankees draftees Cam Schlittler and Sebastian Keane), an unorthodox slide with his back foot, and the fact that he got carved up in his ACC matchup, but I would point to the fact that Messick and Hubbart are an extraordinarily difficult way to begin your season, cold, after a long winter. I'd also point emphatically to his track record on the Cape, where he adeptly controlled the zone against college baseball's best. Together, it's a potential 30 home run bat that can post high on-base percentages and hit right in the middle of the order for a long time. DeLauter is also a good runner with a strong arm that can play a solid right field, and he's extremely young for a college junior with an October birthday. 

CBA-37: RHP Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State. My rank: #48.
Slot value: $2.1 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($401,800 below slot value).
Justin Campbell had serious interest in the first round, but the Guardians managed to snag him here about ten picks lower than he was potentially projected and still save over $400,000 in the process. Originally a two-way player when he reached campus at Oklahoma State, he steadily improved on the mound and after dropping hitting completely in 2022, he broke out for a 3.82 ERA and a 141/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings including fourteen strikeout performance against TCU. Campbell is a massive, 6'7" righty that comes from an extremely high slot, bringing the ball seemingly straight down on you. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has been registering more 96's and 97's at peak, and its high spin rates give it plenty of life to nicely counteract the approach angle. That means hitters see the fastball coming down on them and prepare to match the angle, but it deceptively stays just a bit higher than you'd think. He works in a big, deep curveball, a newer slider, and a changeup that flashes above average. With a big, durable frame and an easy delivery, he commands his stuff well and projects as a high probability big league starting pitcher. The Southern California native could climb the ladder rather quickly and contribute as a #4 starter in the near term before perhaps growing into a larger role.

2-54: LHP Parker Messick, Florida State. My rank: #46.
Slot value: $1.41 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($107,100 below slot value).
This is one of my favorite picks of the entire draft, especially considering the Guardians managed to save over $100,000 here in the second round on a guy I thought looked like a first rounder frequently this spring. Parker Messick has been one of the better pitchers in the ACC for a few years now, and that was certainly the case in 2022 when he put up a 3.38 ERA (ironically a career-worst) and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. He's kind of the opposite of Justin Campbell, standing just six feet tall to Campbell's 6'7". His fastball also sits in the low 90's, topping out at a modest 95 when he really reaches back, while supplementing it with a full arsenal. His curveball and slider are average pitches, flashing above average on his best days, but they don't really project to be true out pitches at the pro level. His changeup does, as a consistently above average pitch that flashed plus in his better starts this spring. He uses his stocky frame to his advantage, crouching down in his delivery and delivering the ball with a relatively flat approach angle. He hides the ball extremely well, which combines with the tough angle he creates, makes for a very deceptive look for hitters that really have trouble picking him up. On top of all that, he pitches with fire and mercilessly goes right after hitters, taking command and controlling at bats from start to finish to make his above average command play up further. The Tampa-area native did see his stuff flatten out a little bit late in the season, but that's not uncommon for these workhorse college starters that carry the load for their teams and frequently throw 110+ pitches. Messick doesn't necessarily project to be an ace, but I see him as a very high probability big league starter with a good shot to become a #3, especially in this system.

3-92: OF Joe Lampe, Arizona State. My rank: #121.
Slot value: $670,200. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($129,800 above slot value).
Joe Lampe is an interesting prospect that has built his stock little by little since transferring from Santa Rosa JC in California to Arizona State, breaking out in 2022 to slash .340/.394/.590 with 12 home runs and a 30/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. It's a fun profile that brings a lot to the table. Lampe is a contact hitter with a smooth, rhythmic load that gives way to a line drive swing. He has an all-fields approach and rarely swings and misses, and in 2022 he began to turn on the ball for some power to the pull side. His exit velocities are just average and Tempe is a hitter-friendly environment, so I don't think his power will play up too much in pro ball, but his plus speed means that he'll stretch plenty of gap shots into doubles and triples. Lampe hits everything in sight and likes to put the ball in play early in the count, leading to low walk rates, and he probably projects as a 5-10 home run hitter with high batting averages that can eke out an every day role if things break out right. He was drafted as an outfielder, where his speed should keep him in center field, but he also has experience at second base and can handle the infield if needed. These kinds of Swiss army knife types aren't terribly common any more, so it's a good profile to have in the system.

4-121: 2B Nate Furman, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $497,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($197,900 below slot value).
There are no secrets with Nate Furman's profile. He's coming off an exceptional season at Charlotte, where he slashed .371/.502/.474 with two home runs and a 26/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games – that's an 8.7% strikeout rate to a 16.3% walk rate if you're keeping track. Standing just 5'8", Furman is not a power threat at all, instead slashing balls to all fields with elite consistency. He tracks pitches extremely well, lets them get deep, spits on the bad ones, and drives the good ones to all fields with a quick, simple left handed swing. The Philadelphia-area native rarely gets fooled, gets on base, and finds the barrel virtually every time. There is virtually zero power in this profile, with his best chance at running up his slugging percentage coming when he splits the gap and lets his plus speed get to work. That impact will drop even further with wood bats, so his value will be entirely reliant on that on-base percentage. Having just turned 21 in July as a draft eligible sophomore, he should move through the minors very quickly and could be one of the Guardians' first draftees to crack the big league roster, likely ultimately slotting into a utility role. His best position is second base.

6-181: RHP Dylan DeLucia, Mississippi. My rank: #143.
Slot value: $284,200. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($9,200 below slot value).
Dylan DeLucia was one of the latest risers in the class, but when he did break out, it was loud. A transfer from Northwest Florida State, DeLucia was a steady hand in the Ole Miss rotation throughout the year, but really turned it on in super regionals, when he blanked Southern Miss for 5.2 innings with nine strikeouts. He followed that up with a gem against Auburn in the College World Series, then finished it off with his best performance yet in the Bracket 2 final against Arkansas. In that start, he tossed a complete game, four hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts to send the Rebels to the College World Series final, catapulting himself into Ole Miss lore and pushing himself up several rounds in the process. He finished the season with a 3.68 ERA, a run lower than it had been entering super regionals, and a 105/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. The Daytona Beach native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 94-95, adding in an above average slider with hard, tight sweep and a nice fading changeup. He has a stocky build with a strong lower half and puts it to good use with a drop and drive delivery. By getting down into his glutes, he creates a low release point and a flat approach angle with its fastball, making it appear more explosive than its average velocity and helping it play off his offspeeds. He can get scattered with his command, more so with his offspeed stuff than his fastball, but pounds the strike zone anyways and limits his walks as a result. The 6'1" righty is a bulldog on the mound and may thrive in a bullpen role where his command won't matter as much, but he's plenty strong enough to start with the ability to hold his velocity deep. It's an interesting profile for sure.

7-211: RHP Javier Santos, Georgia Premier Academy [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $222,400. Signing bonus: $125,000 ($97,600 below slot value).
This pick has a *chance* to be the bargain of the draft. You usually have to pay a premium to divert a high school pitcher away from college, especially when they have stuff like Javier Santos, but the Guardians managed to get it done with just $125,000 and instead of Northwest Florida State, he'll jump right into their system. Santos is a premium arm talent, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to 98 with great ride. He adds a projectable curveball with good spin rates, flashing above average at time but it's very inconsistent and can soften up. His changeup is a distant third pitch. The Dominican has an explosive right arm that promises even more velocity, though he has a ways to go. In addition to refining his secondary stuff, he needs to get stronger to hold his velocity deeper into starts while also getting more consistent with his delivery in order to hit spots more consistently. The ceiling is tremendous, especially in a system like Cleveland that develops pitching extremely well, though he's a bit undersized at six feet tall and could end up in the bullpen. He turned 19 more than a month before the draft, making him very old for the class, and is coming from the same Georgia Premier Academy that produced fellow electric Guardians arm Daniel Espino.

8-241: LHP Jackson Humphries, Fuquay-Varina HS [NC]. My rank: #141.
Slot value: $180,000. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($420,000 above slot value).
Jackson Humphries represents one of the biggest over slot signings in the Guardians class to skip out on a Campbell commitment, and for good reason. He came out of the gate hot this spring and had scouts flocking to Raleigh-area high school, pushing his way into second round consideration, but he couldn't maintain it and saw his stock fall back down as a result. At his best, Humphries sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has hit 96, coming in with some riding action despite a steeper release. He can really spin the ball, with a deep slider that flashes plus at its best and dives under bats at the last second in addition to a curveball that has flashed above average, while his changeup is a fourth pitch. The 6'1" lefty is a good athlete that held the zone fairly well early in the season, but he struggled with command later in the season and hasn't shown enough for scouts to call that a fluke. While his command faltered, his stuff also backed up and his breaking balls didn't look as sharp, so the Guardians have some work to do. If they can get him back to the guy he looked like early this spring, Humphries could be a legitimate impact starting pitcher. If not, his feel for spin should serve him well in a bullpen role.

10-301: RHP Jacob Zibin, TNXL Academy [FL]. My rank: #76.
Slot value: $152,000. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($1.05 million above slot value).
Jackson Humphries was a nice get, but all those under slot deals throughout the first nine rounds, they were mostly saving up for this one right here. Jacob Zibin earned roughly the slot value for the 61st overall pick here in the tenth round, turning down a strong commitment to Kentucky in the process to go pro. Originally from Canada, Zibin moved from Vancouver to Orlando to attend TNXL Academy and reclassified to be eligible for the 2022 class, making him one of the youngest players drafted this year with a 2005 birthday. His profile has taken a big step forward, with his fastball now sitting in the low to mid 90's and scraping the upper 90's, adding a sweepy slider and an above average changeup to go with it. There is some rocking back and forth in his delivery which moves his center of gravity, but he's a great athlete with otherwise sound mechanics that fills up the strike zone very well for someone so young. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and could sit in the mid 90's soon, and if he can continue to sharpen up that offspeed stuff while allowing his command to progress, there is #2 starter upside here. It's one of the most well-rounded profiles I've ever seen from the 17 year old and my #76 ranking, albeit 55 spots ahead of MLB Pipeline and 51 ahead of Baseball America, may prove too conservative.

14-421: OF Pres Cavenaugh, UNC Greensboro. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Pres Cavenaugh made a name for himself in the Cape Cod League last summer, when he slashed .319/.400/.407 with a solid 16.2% strikeout rate, then continued that success by hitting .340/.403/.507 with eight home runs and a 27/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at UNC Greensboro this spring. He's yet another hit-over-power bat that makes a ton of contact to all fields, employing an aggressive approach that limits his walks somewhat at the same time. Still, he gets the barrel to the ball all over the zone and it hasn't hurt him to this point, even against elite pitching on the Cape. The power here is fringy, as he's not a big guy at six feet tall, but he can turn on one and punish you if you leave it over the plate. The Charlotte native is not quite as fast as some of the other hit-over-power types in this Guardians draft class, so he's a likely left fielder and will have to hit to move up. If he can show enough speed to hold down center field in a pinch or tap a little more power, he could be a very solid fourth outfielder that racks up hits and gets on base.

17-511: OF Angel Zarate, North Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
Angel Zarate represents a very similar profile to Pres Cavenaugh, albeit over a year older. He's a fifth year senior that picked up just one hit in seventeen at bats over his first two seasons at UNC, but he's been an on-base machine for the Tar Heels over the past three seasons with a .350/.432/.498 slash line, 13 home runs, and a 65/72 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games in that span. Not overly physical, he makes a lot of contact and has great innate feel for the barrel, spraying line drives to all fields from a simple left handed swing. He has tapped some power at UNC by recognizing good pitches and catching them out front, and he could continue to be an ambush threat in pro ball. But most of his value will come from posting high on-base percentages and driving line drives to the gaps. The northern North Carolina native probably a tick worse of a defender than Cavenaugh, profiling as a corner outfielder, so ideally the power will have to play in pro ball for him to cut it as a fourth outfielder.