Even after graduating guys like Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Alex Verdugo in recent years, this system remains very deep, aided by the successful Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade with Cincinnati that brought Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, both of whom broke out in 2019. Of course, the two headliners of the system are Gavin Lux, who could be an All Star at second base, and Dustin May, a potential ace, both of whom could compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2020. The system is pretty deep and balanced throughout, with the notable exception being the outfield after the graduation of Verdugo, as there are no true impact prospects at this point and the two with the highest ceiling, Andy Pages and Luis Rodriguez, are both very far off.
Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers
Catcher
- Keibert Ruiz (2020 Age: 21-22): Will Smith put on a show after his May call-up with 15 home runs in 54 games, but the Dodgers have another stud catcher coming up right behind him. In 2019, Keibert Ruiz slashed .261/.331/.347 with six home runs and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, though a broken finger ended his season in August. Developing young catching is hard, but Ruiz has made it easy by reaching AAA the day after his 21st birthday in 2019 due to just exceptional strike zone judgement as well as good defense behind the plate. He puts the bat on the ball really, really easily, which has enabled him to handle advanced pitching at a young age. The Dodgers continue to hope that some power will come, and he did hit 12 home runs in 101 games in AA in 2018, though that will require a chance in his contact-oriented approach. He's still very young for a catcher that's already knocking on the big league door, so he has time to add impact at the plate, and he'll need to do so if he wants to eventually take the starting role away from Smith.
- Connor Wong (2020 Age: 23-24): The Dodgers drafted Wong in the third round out of the University of Houston in 2017, and he's hit well in pro ball, most recently slashing .281/.336/.541 with 24 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 143/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa in 2019. Wong isn't the most disciplined or the most physical hitter at a skinny 6'1", but his quick uppercut helps him produce plenty of power and get to it consistently. The aggressive approach didn't hurt him in AA, where he actually hit .349/.393/.604 in 40 games then raked in the playoffs, and the Dodgers would like to think this will carry over to the highest level. The defensive situation might get interesting, because Will Smith has the better glove and Ruiz is probably a bit ahead of him in that regard as well, but Wong won't be forced to first base because he can actually handle second or third base. Since Smith and Ruiz probably have the catching position locked up for the long term, so Wong could be an interesting super-utility type who starts all over the field, including behind the plate.
- Diego Cartaya (2020 Age: 18): The Dodgers gave Cartaya $2.5 million to sign out of Venzuela in 2018, and he made a strong impression in his first pro season in 2019 by slashing .281/.343/.432 with four home runs and a 42/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games between the complex level affiliates in the Dominican Summer League and the Arizona League. He has a simple, clean right handed swing that's hit over power for now, but he creates enough leverage that he should be able to grow into some power, perhaps above average power. Defensively, he's very advanced and only figures to get better, and he will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old so he has plenty of time to develop further.
- Keep an eye on: Hunter Feduccia, Marco Hernandez
Corner Infield
- Edwin Rios (2020 Age: 26): Rios has worked his way up slowly since being a sixth round pick out of Florida International University in 2015, repeating AAA in 2019 and slashing .270/.340/.575 with 31 home runs and a 153/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games there, also hitting a strong .277/.393/.617 with four home runs and a 21/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 major league games. Rios strikes out a lot, but he uses his 6'3" frame effectively to get great extension on the ball and drive it out to all fields. Combining his fringy hit tool with his fringy defense means that he probably won't ever be a full time starter in Los Angeles, plus Justin Turner and Max Muncy already have the infield corners locked down, but his power could make him a nice role player or platoon bat in the near future.
- Miguel Vargas (2020 Age: 20): After the Dodgers signed Vargas for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2017, he made a strong first impression by slashing .330/.404/.465 in his first pro season in 2018, then took another step forward in 2019 by slashing .308/.380/.440 with seven home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 83/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga. Lean and strong at 6'3", he's an extremely competent hitter who stands out most for his ability to find the barrel with ease against advanced pitching at a very young age. Vargas hits for mostly extra base power for now, and he did hit 38 doubles in 2019, though he could grow into some power as he begins to get those extra base hits over the fence. He doesn't need to in order to be a valuable hitter, though, as he should be able to post high on-base percentages to go along with those extra base hits at the major league level. He's still a work in progress defensively and may have to move to first base, which would put pressure on him adding power, but he'll play all of 2020 at just 20 years old and has a lot of time to figure out who he is as a player.
- Kody Hoese (2020 Age: 22-23): Hoese put up a massive breakout season at Tulane in 2019, then rode that to a late first round selection to the Dodgers, where he slashed .299/.380/.483 with five home runs and a 25/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Great Lakes. He uses a simple right handed swing and the natural leverage in his 6'4" frame to hit for potentially plus raw power, and his plate discipline is advanced enough that he should be a fairly safe bet despite his lack of a track record. If his massive 2019 wasn't a mirage, he could hit 25-30 home runs annually at the major league level while posting solid on-base percentages. While his .264/.330/.385 line at Class A was pretty decent for a hitter in his pro debut, he still does have to prove that his power will play up against advanced pitching. He's a decent defender at third base but should stick there.
- Michael Busch (2020 Age: 22): The Dodgers picked Busch out of UNC just six picks after Hoese in 2019, though he slashed just .125/.371/.125 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the Arizona League and Class A Great Lakes before a broken hand ended his season. Busch is an interesting hitter – he has good power, and he's proven he can get to it consistently against advanced competition in the ACC and in the Cape Cod League. Meanwhile, he does have some swing and miss in his game, but he has such a great feel for the strike zone that he can mitigate most of it by not chasing bad pitches. He's a pretty safe bet to be a solid contributor with both power and on-base percentages, but the bigger questions surround his defense. He played first base and left field in college, both pretty mediocrely, and the Dodgers have tried him out so far as a second baseman. He's not fast nor does he have a strong arm, so the Dodgers are just going to have to figure out where he's the least bit of a liability.
- Brandon Lewis (2020 Age: 21): Lewis, a fourth rounder out of UC-Irvine, gives the Dodgers a third 2019 draftee that figures prominently into their future infield scheme. A graduate of Bishop Alemany High School in Mission Hills, he also gives them another hometown kid to root for behind Lakewood's Justin Turner. Lewis is on an upward trajectory if one ever existed, as he was barely recruited out of high school, attended Pierce College for a couple of years, then broke out for the Anteaters in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .297/.365/.534 with 13 home runs and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games between the Arizona League, rookie level Ogden, and Class A Great Lakes, showing both the tremendous raw power that got him drafted and the swing and miss issues that mean he'll be a bit of a project. The fact that he was able to get to his power consistently in the Pioneer League was a nice sign, as were the two home runs he hit against moderately advanced pitching in the Midwest League playoffs. He has a high ceiling as a power hitting third baseman, but there's also a chance he has to move to first base and that will put more pressure on his ability to make contact. As someone who will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, he's young for a college draftee, so he'll have a bit of extra time to develop.
- Keep an eye on: Cristian Santana, Dillon Paulson, Justin Yurchak
Middle Infield
- Gavin Lux (2020 Age: 22): There's no way around it that Lux is one of the best prospects in baseball and already a leading candidate to give the Dodgers a third NL Rookie of the Year in five years. A late first round pick out of a Kenosha, Wisconsin high school in 2016, he took a little bit to find his footing but broke out by slashing .324/.399/.514 in 2018 after he reworked his approach. He was even better in 2019, slashing .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 102/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, then he hit .240/.305/.400 with a pair of home runs and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 major league games. Lux is pretty much the complete package as a player, showing above average power with exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone that enables that power to play up consistently and helps him post high on-base percentages. He's solid average at second base if a bit above, and he has enough speed to be a threat on the base paths. The Dodgers are committed to Lux as their starting second baseman in 2020 and beyond, and he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases to boot – an All Star profile.
- Jeter Downs (2020 Age: 21-22): Downs was a Reds competitive balance pick out of a Miami-area high school in 2017, then was shipped to the Dodgers in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal, which is now looking like a coup for the Dodgers. In his first season in the Dodgers' system, he had a breakout season offensively, slashing .276/.362/.526 with 24 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 107/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, also adding 35 doubles and four triples. Downs just knows how to play the game, with advanced feel for the barrel and the strike zone for his age and the athleticism to make his average raw power play up in games. He's also a smart baserunner that can make his average speed play up on the bases, and he's parlayed that into 61 stolen bases over the last two seasons. Overall, the package is actually somewhat similar to a base-model Gavin Lux, just take half a grade off each tool and flip him to the other batters' box.
- Omar Estevez (2020 Age: 22): Estevez is a Cuban defector who received $6 million to sign with the Dodgers in 2015, and they quickly assigned him to Class A shortly after his 18th birthday. He hasn't moved as quickly as originally hoped, but he still reached the upper minors at just 21 years old in 2019 and slashed .292/.353/.429 with six home runs and a 78/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Tulsa and some complex level rehab work. He has advanced feel for the barrel that helped him finish second in the minors with 43 doubles in 2018, and his powerful swing helps him produce at least a little bit of power from a smaller 5'10" frame. He's most likely to end up a high on-base guy who gets a lot of extra base hits, though the glove is kind of fringy and he fits best at second base. Overall, that's probably a utility projection.
- Jacob Amaya (2020 Age: 21): Right behind Estevez is Jacob Amaya, another local kid who attended South Hills High School in West Covina before being drafted in the eleventh round in 2017. In 2019, Amaya slashed .260/.369/.391 with seven home runs and a 98/81 strikeout to walk ratio, standing out more for his feel for the game than any individual tools. Amaya makes consistent contact with his quick right handed swing, though he tends to swing over the ball and put it on the ground a lot. He's not the biggest guy at six feet tall, but he does have the leverage in his quick barrel to eventually get close to average power. Perhaps his best offensive tool is his patience, as he is more than willing to work counts and draw walks without getting into trouble with strikeouts, which boosts his on-base percentages considerably. He's also not the flashiest defender, but he gets the job done and could fit at shortstop in more of a utility role rather than a full time one. If he can add a little pop, there is the chance he could end up a starting second baseman down the line, though the presence of Gavin Lux and Jeter Downs complicate that a bit.
- Keep an eye on: Drew Jackson, Devin Mann, Eddys Leonard, Alex De Jesus
Outfield
- DJ Peters (2020 Age: 24): Chalk up another LA native for the Dodgers, as Peters is a graduate of Glendora High School who ended up at a Nevada community college for school, then earned a fourth round selection in the 2016 draft. He's hit his way up through the system and reached the top in 2019, slashing .249/.358/.453 with 23 home runs and a 168/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City. He's got considerable power, but there's a bit too much swing and miss for it to fully play up in the majors, and with the Dodgers' deep outfield situation, he most likely profiles as a power hitting fourth outfielder or platoon bat. Of course, with the way Dodgers prospects just always seem to play better at the major league level, there's always the chance that the 6'6" slugger taps into some of that magic and hits 25+ home runs in the majors, but he will have to cut down on the swing and miss that's caused him to strike out 559 times over the last three seasons.
- Zach Reks (2020 Age: 26): It's been a long road for Reks, who originally enrolled at the Air Force Academy in 2012, lasted one season, then transferred to Kentucky as a student, not a baseball player. He eventually walked onto the team and hit well enough over a couple of years to be drafted in the tenth round in 2017, by which time he was a fifth year senior and already 23 years old, then just kept on hitting once he hit pro ball. Mostly a contact hitter at first, he busted out the power stroke and slashed .291/.385/.536 with 28 home runs and a 131/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, and now he's knocking on the door to the big leagues. Reks generates a lot of raw power from a big left handed swing, but he controls it well enough to keep his strikeout rate from ballooning too high, and he also draws enough walks to balance it out. The Dodgers are so deep in the outfield that I honestly have no idea how in the world he'll hit his way onto the team, but in another organization, he could get a crack this year at being a fourth outfielder/platoon bat who can crush right handed pitching.
- Andy Pages (2020 Age: 19): Pages signed for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2018, then burst onto the scene in 2019 by slashing .298/.398/.651 with 19 home runs and a 79/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Ogden at just 18 years old. Pages was more noted for his contact ability and feel for the barrel when he signed, but that's quickly manifested itself into real power (he also hit 22 doubles) real quickly as he's added significant loft to his swing already. There was some swing and miss, but he was also an 18 year old playing up in the Pioneer League, and the fact that he could get to his power enough for 43 extra base hits in 63 games is enough to know that the hit tool will play up, at least for now. He's a real sleeper to be an impact hitter and his full season debut in 2020 should be watched closely.
- Luis Rodriguez (2020 Age: 17): Rodriguez signed for nearly $2.7 million out of Venezuela in 2019, so he has yet to play in affiliated ball, but the Dodgers are certainly excited about his upside. He's a 6'2" right handed hitter that is already very advanced for his age, with the ability to work counts and find the barrel consistently. He has a lot of room to grow into his frame and potentially add power, and he's already shown the ability to put significant leverage on the ball. A solid defender in the outfield, he probably profiles best in right field, but it's also far too soon to make any concrete projections, either about the bat or the glove. For now, he should just be watched to see what he develops into.
- Keep an eye on: Connor Joe, Carlos Rincon, Jeren Kendall, Starling Heredia
Starting Pitching
- Dustin May (2020 Age: 22): If anyone on this team has a shot at challenging Gavin Lux for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, it's Dustin May. May was drafted out of a Fort Worth-area high school the same year as Lux, in the third round in 2016, and he's gotten better every year, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 110/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City in 2019, as well as a 3.63 ERA and a 32/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 major league innings. He's hard to miss on the field – an absolute string bean at 6'6", his bright red, shoulder-length hair makes him one of the most recognizable prospects in the game. May's fastball now sits firmly in the mid 90's with a ton of late life, and he adds a whole group of unique secondary offerings. His hard downer curve is tough to square up, while his hard cutter can touch 92 and his changeup has taken a big step forward lately. Perhaps most importantly, he can command it all pretty well, which points to a long career as at least a #3 starter with a good chance for more.
- Tony Gonsolin (2020 Age: 25-26): Gonsolin, a native of Vacaville, California between Sacramento and the Bay Area, was a ninth round senior sign out of St. Mary's College in 2016 and has transformed as a pitcher in his brief time in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 50/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings at AAA Oklahoma City, but he was actually better in the majors with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings for the Dodgers. He's added a solid five miles per hour to his fastball in pro ball, now sitting in the mid 90's, but his best pitch is his splitter, a true plus pitch that just falls off the table at the last second while looking like a fastball the whole way. He also adds a very good downer curveball and mixes in a slider, giving hitters a wide variety of pitches they need to be ready for. With solid command, he should be a #3 or a #4 starter if he can break into the Dodgers' deep rotation in 2020.
- Josiah Gray (2020 Age: 22): Gray alone is going to make the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade look like a steal, and together with Jeter Downs, it's looking like a coup. When the Dodgers acquired Gray from the Reds, he was a recent competitive balance pick out of Division II Le Moyne College in New York who had only recently switched from shortstop to pitcher, albeit having made a strong impression in his pro debut (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB in rookie ball). In his first season in the Dodgers organization, he took off, posting a 2.28 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 147/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 innings at Class A Great Lakes, High A Rancho Cucamonga, and AA Tulsa. He now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, led by a slider that's flashing plus more often than not, a new curveball, and a quickly improving changeup. He has also been filling up the zone as he's gotten better and better about hitting his spots, and he looks nothing like the light hitting Division II shortstop he was just a couple years ago. With his upward trajectory, he has the ceiling of a #2 starter and a really good shot at becoming at least a mid-rotation guy.
- Mitchell White (2020 Age: 25): White, a San Jose native, was a second round pick out of Santa Clara in 2016, and he's reached the top of the minors but finds himself a bit behind some of the other prospects looking to crack the Dodgers rotation in 2020. In 2019, he posted a 5.09 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, pitching really well at the lower level but struggling a bit with a promotion to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. White is very close to major league ready with a low to mid 90's fastball, a pair of very good breaking balls, and a decent changeup, though he needs to get more consistent overall, especially with his average command. In most systems, he'd probably be good enough as is to compete for a rotation spot out of spring training, but May, Gonsolin, and Gray are likely ahead of him on the depth chart as more complete pitchers. I wouldn't count him out as a starter just yet though because the talent is clearly there.
- Edwin Uceta (2020 Age: 22): Uceta signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, but a strong 2018 put him on the map and he kept up the good work in 2019, posting a 2.77 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 141/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa. Uceta doesn't stand out for any particular pitch or skill, instead doing the little things right across the board to work his way up in a deep system. He's got a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a changeup with nice fade, which he commands just well enough to make it all play up. He's a smaller guy at a listed six feet tall and 155 pounds, but he has topped 120 innings in back to back seasons, so he's proven durable to this point. He could be a #4 starter, or in the bullpen he could play off his fastball/changeup combination.
- Leo Crawford (2020 Age: 23): Nicaragua is mostly a soccer country, though there have been a few players to make the majors, most notably 1991 perfect game-thrower Dennis Martinez, and Leo Crawford is looking to add another to the short list. There isn't a ton of public information on Crawford, as he's only recently put himself on the map with a strong 2019 in which he posted a 2.81 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 134/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa. He's a crafty lefty with a lot of moving parts in his delivery, but he has good body control that enables him to throw plenty of strikes and hit his spots. I couldn't find much information, but it looks like he throws a fastball, slider, and a changeup, the latter of which has nice drop and can be an out pitch. That changeup, combined with his command and his ability to change his delivery and keep hitters off balance, has worked very well for him even up through AA, so he'll be an intriguing dark horse candidate to crack the rotation in 2020 or 2021.
- Michael Grove (2020 Age: 23): Grove was an out-of-nowhere pick in the second round out of West Virginia in 2018, as he was sitting out the year with Tommy John surgery and wasn't really on anybody's board. He finally got back on the mound in 2019 and posted a 6.10 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings in an aggressive assignment to High A Rancho Cucamonga. The ERA is a bit ugly and he didn't throw a whole lot of innings, but otherwise, I'd actually consider this season a success. He controlled the zone well with a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and he did so in High A despite not having pitched since 2017 in the Big 12. Grove also looked better as the year went on, regaining his feel for pitching, and the Dodgers will be ready to turn him loose in 2020. Grove gets by with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good slider, and refining his changeup is probably the last step for him to reach his ceiling as a #3 or #4 starter.
- Ryan Pepiot (2020 Age: 22): Pepiot slipped a little on draft boards with an inconsistent junior year at Butler in 2019, but the Dodgers eventually grabbed him in the third round and watched him post a 1.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League and at Class A Great Lakes. Pepiot stands out for his low 90's fastball and his excellent fading changeup, though he got in trouble at times when a) his two decent breaking balls began to run together or b) his command wavered. The combination of not having a true swing and miss breaking ball and spotty command might eventually push him to the bullpen, but the Dodgers will try to clean him up and get him more consistent overall, hoping that the presence of four pitches can keep him in the rotation and push him towards a ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. The strong pro debut is at least a good sign.
- Jimmy Lewis (2020 Age: 19): The Dodgers picked Lewis up in the second compensation round in 2019, making him the second pick out of his own Austin-area high school after Mets first rounder Brett Baty. He's a projectable 6'6" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball that looks really good at times, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a changeup that is fairly advanced for a high schooler, and he has the fairly advanced strike throwing ability to match. Overall, it's a nice combination of current ability and projection for a high school arm, with all the building blocks necessary to put together an impact starter and some of them already together.
- Keep an eye on: Gerardo Carrillo, Andre Jackson, John Rooney, Robinson Ortiz, Jack Little
Relief Pitching
- Dennis Santana (2020 Age: 24): With five highly regarded pitching prospects knocking on the door to the big league rotation, Santana and Mitchell White are probably in the second tier, and Santana's most likely path forward is probably the bullpen. In 2019, he had a 6.94 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 105/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.1 innings at AAA Oklahoma City, and he also has a 9.35 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 career major league innings. He's always had the stuff, most notably a mid 90's fastball with sink and a good diving slider, also adding a decent changeup that can get too firm, but the command has been an issue throughout his career. There is some jerk in his delivery that can pull him off alignment, and now set to turn 24 at the start of the season, I'm not sure how much better it's going to get. That's why he's probably a reliever with all this pitching depth, where his fastball could hit the upper 90's and his slider could hopefully get a bit more consistent.
- Marshall Kasowski (2020 Age: 25): Kasowski, unlike Santana, is a true-relief prospect, one who posted a 2.27 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 51/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings between AA Tulsa and complex level rehab work despite missing some time with injuries mid season. He was a 13th round pick out of West Texas A&M in 2017, two years after surviving a car accident that nearly killed him, but since hitting pro ball he's struck out 37.1% of his opponents – 177 in just 107.2 innings. He's gotten most of those with just one pitch, a mid 90's fastball that comes from a higher than high overhand slot and is extremely difficult to pick up. He's got a curve to give hitters a different look, but really it's just the fastball. With mediocre command, he's probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning guy, but improving his command a little bit could help him move towards an eighth or ninth inning job.
- Aaron Ochsenbein (2020 Age: 24): Ochsenbein signed as a fifth year senior after being drafted in the sixth round out of Eastern Kentucky in 2019, so he'll already turn 24 in spring training (well technically, he's only turning five because he was born on February 29th, leap year day). He was an unremarkable prospect until he turned 23, when he broke out for a monster redshirt senior season and carried it over into pro ball, where he had a 1.44 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 35/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings between the complex level Arizona League, rookie level Ogden, and Class A Great Lakes. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent splitter that misses bats in bunches, in addition to an average slider, that will help him move quickly through the minors. With a little bit of deception in his delivery and good solid command, he's a good middle relief prospect to track.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Salow, Jordan Sheffield, Brett de Geus, Melvin Jimenez, Mitchell Tyranksi
Showing posts with label Kody Hoese. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kody Hoese. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 1, 2020
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers
First five rounds: Kody Hoese (1-25), Michael Busch (1-31), Jimmy Lewis (2-78), Ryan Pepiot (3-102), Brandon Lewis (4-131), Jack Little (5-161)
Also notable: Aaron Ochsenbein (6-191), Jeff Belge (18-551), Brennan Milone (28-851)
I really like the job the Dodgers did with this draft, taking advantage of their extra first round pick (compensation for not signing 2018 first rounder J.T. Ginn) to grab two low-risk, potential impact hitters right away. After potentially reshaping the middle of their order for years to come, they took pitchers with five of their next six picks, and I especially like second rounder Jimmy Lewis's upside. Combine them with potential fast-moving relievers in fifth rounder Jack Little and sixth rounder Aaron Ochsenbein, and the Dodgers could get a lot of impact out of this class in the relatively near future.
1-25: 3B Kody Hoese (Tulane, my rank: 28)
Kody Hoese was a 35th round pick after slashing .291/.368/.435 as a draft-eligible sophomore at Tulane in 2018, but nobody expected what happened this year, when the Chicago-area native from the Indiana side slashed .391/.486/.779 with 23 home runs and a 34/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the Green Wave. Hoese emerged out of nowhere to show big power from a simple swing and a 6'4" frame while bumping up his walk rate but not his strikeout rate. Without much of a track record, it's hard to call Hoese a safe bet even as a college hitter, but if he can continue to build off the strides he made in 2019, he could be a true impact hitter for the Dodgers with 25-30 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he's nothing special but his strong arm means he'll stick at third base, but the Dodgers are buying the bat here and hope to get a middle of the order hitter. Some recent examples of college hitters to explode from out of nowhere in their draft year are Andrew Benintendi (2015, Arkansas), who worked out extremely well for the Red Sox, Drew Ellis (2017, Louisville), who is still working things out in the Diamondbacks system, and Jonathan India (Florida, 2018), for whom it's too early to evaluate, as well as fellow 2019 first rounder Hunter Bishop. Hoese signed for $2.74 million, right at slot.
1-31: 2B Michael Busch (North Carolina, my rank: 23)
As you can tell by the rankings, I actually like Busch better as a hitter than Hoese. The Minneapolis-area native has a longer track record of hitting in a more difficult conference as well as in the elite Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), though Hoese's raw 2019 numbers were more impressive. In 2019, he slashed .284/.436/.547 with 16 home runs and a 39/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, holding a .273/.369/.531 line against tough pitching in ACC conference games. Busch, like Hoese, hits for plenty of power, and as a very selective hitter, he was able to draw far more walks than strikeouts throughout his college career as well as on the Cape. He features a similar offensive outlook to Hoese, though I expect his on-base percentages to be slightly better. Defensively, his future is much more uncertain, as he lacks much in terms of foot speed or arm strength, and he's been mediocre at first base and in left field. The Dodgers drafted the solidly built six footer as a second baseman, which could conceivably work if he continues to work hard to improve there as he has at his other two positions, though he'll likely always be below average there. Slot value is $2.31 million, which is about fair.
2-78: RHP Jimmy Lewis (Lake Travis HS [TX], my rank: 52)
The Dodgers didn't get to pick until after the second round because they signed A.J. Pollock but also lost Yasmani Grandal, and they went after a high ceiling high school arm. Jimmy Lewis was teammates with Mets' first rounder Brett Baty at Lake Travis High School in the Austin area, and as a 6'6" righty, he offers plenty of projection. Lewis currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a somewhat inconsistent curveball that looks like a plus pitch at its best as well as a fairly advanced changeup for a high school pitcher. He throws with easy arm action and a fairly clean delivery, which allows him to throw plenty of strikes, and he should only get better with pro coaching. I like this pick a lot, as it's easy to peg him with mid-rotation upside, but as a Louisiana State commit, he'll likely require more than the allotted $793,000 to sign.
3-102: RHP Ryan Pepiot (Butler, my rank: 86)
Ryan Pepiot had a fantastic sophomore season at Butler (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), but his junior season this year was more up and down. He finished with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, looking dominant at times (13 K's over 6 shutout innings against Xavier) and struggled at others (allowed 18 runs [16 earned] over 12.2 innings over his next three starts against Seton Hall, Villanova, and Air Force). Pepiot is a 6'3" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a full set of secondaries, though it was his plus changeup that allowed him to rack up all those strikeouts. His curve and slider look good at times but likely won't be putaway pitches in pro ball, so the effectiveness of his changeup as well as his ability to sharpen his command will likely dictate whether he can stick in a professional starting rotation. The Indianapolis native comes with some reliever risk due to the command and breaking ball inconsistencies, but his durable frame and possession of four pitches will give him every chance to crack it as a potential #4 starter. Slot value is $571,400.
4-131: 3B Brandon Lewis (California-Irvine, unranked)
After taking three Midwesterners and a Texan with their first four picks, the Dodgers plucked UC-Irvine's Brandon Lewis out of their own backyard, as Lewis grew up in the San Fernando Valley just north of Dodger Stadium and Downtown LA. Lewis weighed 285 pounds coming out of high school, so rather than accept his only offer at Cal State Northridge just down the road from his house, he spent two years losing weight and honing his skills at Pierce College, also just down the road from his house. He then transferred to UC-Irvine weighing in at 215 pounds, still in the LA area but at least on the other side of the city this time, and put up a monster season despite a pitcher-friendly home stadium, slashing .315/.408/.598 with 14 home runs and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He has easy plus raw power and was able to get to it consistently against average competition in the Big West, though there are questions about his approach and hit tool that are likely made worse by his significant pre-swing bat wrap. Because he also struggled at times against better fastballs, I think that bat wrap will have to go, and the Dodgers will have to hope that doesn't sap his power. Defensively, he has gotten more athletic as he has lost weight, but he still may have to move off third base and over to first base. Lewis is raw, but he's very young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until October, so the Dodgers are betting on his high upside here. Slot value is $430,800.
5-161: RHP Jack Little (Stanford, unranked)
Third rounder Ryan Pepiot was a starter for Butler in a small conference, while Jack Little is a reliever for Stanford in a big conference, but the two actually are fairly similar pitchers. After posting a 0.61 ERA and a 56/8 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, Little, like Pepiot, took a small step back as a junior, posting a 3.37 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 55/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings out of the Cardinal bullpen. Little is a 6'4" righty from Las Vegas that comes from a lower arm slot that produces a ton of run on his pitches, but he still commands everything pretty well. Like Pepiot, he throws four pitches starting with a low 90's fastball, with his changeup being his best pitch with significant fade and his two breaking balls falling behind a bit. Because of the lack of a plus breaking ball and his current status as a reliever, I think it is less likely that he could transition to starting and that makes Pepiot the better prospect, but Little could be an effective reliever who could potentially be stretched out to multiple innings due to his four pitch mix and relatively easy delivery. Slot value here is $321,100.
6-191: RHP Aaron Ochsenbein (Eastern Kentucky, unranked)
After back to back selections from California schools, the Dodgers went back out east to grab Aaron Ochsenbein from Eastern Kentucky University in the state's bluegrass region. The Lexington native put up video game numbers out of the Colonels' bullpen this year, posting a 0.83 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 90/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, a massive improvement over the 4.70 ERA he carried as a redshirt junior in 2018 and the 7.90 mark he had as a redshirt sophomore in 2017. He also pitched pretty well on the Cape this past summer, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. The 6'3" righty has some deception in his delivery, using it to help his low to mid 90's fastball, excellent splitter, and average slider play up. The splitter is what enabled him to strike out 90 batters over 54.1 innings at EKU this year as well as 43 batters over 23.2 innings on the Cape, and it will be his out pitch in pro ball as well. He's exclusively a reliever and there are no plans for him to try starting, but he could move very quickly and be in the majors by 2020 if everything goes well. As a fifth year senior this year, he's already 23 and will turn 24 at the start of next year's spring training, so he'll definitely want to move quickly. Slot value is $249,000, but he'll likely get significantly less than that as the Dodgers try to save cap space to buy Jimmy Lewis away from LSU.
18-551: LHP Jeff Belge (St. John's, unranked)
It's been a wild ride for Belge, who was a potential top five rounds pick out of a Syracuse high school in 2016 (he ranked #128 on my list that year) but who opted to attend St. John's instead. Despite struggling with command issues, Belge put himself on the radar to go in a similar spot after a strong sophomore season (2.83 ERA, 79/40 K/BB) sandwiched between two solid summers in the Cape Cod League (combined 3.75 ERA, 70/37 K/BB in 62.1 IP). However, his already shaky command completely fell apart in 2019, where he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and a 73/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. Really, that K/BB/IP ratio tells you all you need to know; big stuff, no command. The big bodied, 6'5" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball when he's at his best, adding three inconsistent secondary offerings, all of which will need refinement, but they were enough to generate chases and miss bats in the Big East. He may not sign here and instead opt to return to Queens to work on his command and pull it all together.
28-851: SS Brennan Milone (Woodstock HS [GA], my rank: 117)
Like Belge, Brennan Milone (not to be confused with Diamondbacks first rounder Brennan Malone) is unlikely to sign here. Milone will likely instead take his South Carolina scholarship and head to Columbia and build his stock for the 2022 draft. Presently, the Atlanta-area high schooler features a plus hit tool that stands out above the rest of his game. He gets the barrel into the zone quickly and can make consistent line drive contact even against better pitching, making him a fairly safe bet to hit in pro ball once he gets there. However, he's a skinnier guy and he's not guaranteed to generate much power, especially with his line drive swing, and he currently projects for about 10-15 home runs per season, albeit with good on-base percentages. He was drafted as a shortstop, but with his mediocre speed, he looks more like a second or third baseman, either of which he will be adequate at. If he can add some pop or at least further prove his hit tool, he could come out of South Carolina a potential Day One prospect.
Also notable: Aaron Ochsenbein (6-191), Jeff Belge (18-551), Brennan Milone (28-851)
I really like the job the Dodgers did with this draft, taking advantage of their extra first round pick (compensation for not signing 2018 first rounder J.T. Ginn) to grab two low-risk, potential impact hitters right away. After potentially reshaping the middle of their order for years to come, they took pitchers with five of their next six picks, and I especially like second rounder Jimmy Lewis's upside. Combine them with potential fast-moving relievers in fifth rounder Jack Little and sixth rounder Aaron Ochsenbein, and the Dodgers could get a lot of impact out of this class in the relatively near future.
1-25: 3B Kody Hoese (Tulane, my rank: 28)
Kody Hoese was a 35th round pick after slashing .291/.368/.435 as a draft-eligible sophomore at Tulane in 2018, but nobody expected what happened this year, when the Chicago-area native from the Indiana side slashed .391/.486/.779 with 23 home runs and a 34/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the Green Wave. Hoese emerged out of nowhere to show big power from a simple swing and a 6'4" frame while bumping up his walk rate but not his strikeout rate. Without much of a track record, it's hard to call Hoese a safe bet even as a college hitter, but if he can continue to build off the strides he made in 2019, he could be a true impact hitter for the Dodgers with 25-30 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he's nothing special but his strong arm means he'll stick at third base, but the Dodgers are buying the bat here and hope to get a middle of the order hitter. Some recent examples of college hitters to explode from out of nowhere in their draft year are Andrew Benintendi (2015, Arkansas), who worked out extremely well for the Red Sox, Drew Ellis (2017, Louisville), who is still working things out in the Diamondbacks system, and Jonathan India (Florida, 2018), for whom it's too early to evaluate, as well as fellow 2019 first rounder Hunter Bishop. Hoese signed for $2.74 million, right at slot.
1-31: 2B Michael Busch (North Carolina, my rank: 23)
As you can tell by the rankings, I actually like Busch better as a hitter than Hoese. The Minneapolis-area native has a longer track record of hitting in a more difficult conference as well as in the elite Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), though Hoese's raw 2019 numbers were more impressive. In 2019, he slashed .284/.436/.547 with 16 home runs and a 39/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games, holding a .273/.369/.531 line against tough pitching in ACC conference games. Busch, like Hoese, hits for plenty of power, and as a very selective hitter, he was able to draw far more walks than strikeouts throughout his college career as well as on the Cape. He features a similar offensive outlook to Hoese, though I expect his on-base percentages to be slightly better. Defensively, his future is much more uncertain, as he lacks much in terms of foot speed or arm strength, and he's been mediocre at first base and in left field. The Dodgers drafted the solidly built six footer as a second baseman, which could conceivably work if he continues to work hard to improve there as he has at his other two positions, though he'll likely always be below average there. Slot value is $2.31 million, which is about fair.
2-78: RHP Jimmy Lewis (Lake Travis HS [TX], my rank: 52)
The Dodgers didn't get to pick until after the second round because they signed A.J. Pollock but also lost Yasmani Grandal, and they went after a high ceiling high school arm. Jimmy Lewis was teammates with Mets' first rounder Brett Baty at Lake Travis High School in the Austin area, and as a 6'6" righty, he offers plenty of projection. Lewis currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a somewhat inconsistent curveball that looks like a plus pitch at its best as well as a fairly advanced changeup for a high school pitcher. He throws with easy arm action and a fairly clean delivery, which allows him to throw plenty of strikes, and he should only get better with pro coaching. I like this pick a lot, as it's easy to peg him with mid-rotation upside, but as a Louisiana State commit, he'll likely require more than the allotted $793,000 to sign.
3-102: RHP Ryan Pepiot (Butler, my rank: 86)
Ryan Pepiot had a fantastic sophomore season at Butler (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), but his junior season this year was more up and down. He finished with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, looking dominant at times (13 K's over 6 shutout innings against Xavier) and struggled at others (allowed 18 runs [16 earned] over 12.2 innings over his next three starts against Seton Hall, Villanova, and Air Force). Pepiot is a 6'3" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a full set of secondaries, though it was his plus changeup that allowed him to rack up all those strikeouts. His curve and slider look good at times but likely won't be putaway pitches in pro ball, so the effectiveness of his changeup as well as his ability to sharpen his command will likely dictate whether he can stick in a professional starting rotation. The Indianapolis native comes with some reliever risk due to the command and breaking ball inconsistencies, but his durable frame and possession of four pitches will give him every chance to crack it as a potential #4 starter. Slot value is $571,400.
4-131: 3B Brandon Lewis (California-Irvine, unranked)
After taking three Midwesterners and a Texan with their first four picks, the Dodgers plucked UC-Irvine's Brandon Lewis out of their own backyard, as Lewis grew up in the San Fernando Valley just north of Dodger Stadium and Downtown LA. Lewis weighed 285 pounds coming out of high school, so rather than accept his only offer at Cal State Northridge just down the road from his house, he spent two years losing weight and honing his skills at Pierce College, also just down the road from his house. He then transferred to UC-Irvine weighing in at 215 pounds, still in the LA area but at least on the other side of the city this time, and put up a monster season despite a pitcher-friendly home stadium, slashing .315/.408/.598 with 14 home runs and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He has easy plus raw power and was able to get to it consistently against average competition in the Big West, though there are questions about his approach and hit tool that are likely made worse by his significant pre-swing bat wrap. Because he also struggled at times against better fastballs, I think that bat wrap will have to go, and the Dodgers will have to hope that doesn't sap his power. Defensively, he has gotten more athletic as he has lost weight, but he still may have to move off third base and over to first base. Lewis is raw, but he's very young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until October, so the Dodgers are betting on his high upside here. Slot value is $430,800.
5-161: RHP Jack Little (Stanford, unranked)
Third rounder Ryan Pepiot was a starter for Butler in a small conference, while Jack Little is a reliever for Stanford in a big conference, but the two actually are fairly similar pitchers. After posting a 0.61 ERA and a 56/8 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, Little, like Pepiot, took a small step back as a junior, posting a 3.37 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 55/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings out of the Cardinal bullpen. Little is a 6'4" righty from Las Vegas that comes from a lower arm slot that produces a ton of run on his pitches, but he still commands everything pretty well. Like Pepiot, he throws four pitches starting with a low 90's fastball, with his changeup being his best pitch with significant fade and his two breaking balls falling behind a bit. Because of the lack of a plus breaking ball and his current status as a reliever, I think it is less likely that he could transition to starting and that makes Pepiot the better prospect, but Little could be an effective reliever who could potentially be stretched out to multiple innings due to his four pitch mix and relatively easy delivery. Slot value here is $321,100.
6-191: RHP Aaron Ochsenbein (Eastern Kentucky, unranked)
After back to back selections from California schools, the Dodgers went back out east to grab Aaron Ochsenbein from Eastern Kentucky University in the state's bluegrass region. The Lexington native put up video game numbers out of the Colonels' bullpen this year, posting a 0.83 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 90/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, a massive improvement over the 4.70 ERA he carried as a redshirt junior in 2018 and the 7.90 mark he had as a redshirt sophomore in 2017. He also pitched pretty well on the Cape this past summer, posting a 3.42 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. The 6'3" righty has some deception in his delivery, using it to help his low to mid 90's fastball, excellent splitter, and average slider play up. The splitter is what enabled him to strike out 90 batters over 54.1 innings at EKU this year as well as 43 batters over 23.2 innings on the Cape, and it will be his out pitch in pro ball as well. He's exclusively a reliever and there are no plans for him to try starting, but he could move very quickly and be in the majors by 2020 if everything goes well. As a fifth year senior this year, he's already 23 and will turn 24 at the start of next year's spring training, so he'll definitely want to move quickly. Slot value is $249,000, but he'll likely get significantly less than that as the Dodgers try to save cap space to buy Jimmy Lewis away from LSU.
18-551: LHP Jeff Belge (St. John's, unranked)
It's been a wild ride for Belge, who was a potential top five rounds pick out of a Syracuse high school in 2016 (he ranked #128 on my list that year) but who opted to attend St. John's instead. Despite struggling with command issues, Belge put himself on the radar to go in a similar spot after a strong sophomore season (2.83 ERA, 79/40 K/BB) sandwiched between two solid summers in the Cape Cod League (combined 3.75 ERA, 70/37 K/BB in 62.1 IP). However, his already shaky command completely fell apart in 2019, where he posted a 5.25 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and a 73/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. Really, that K/BB/IP ratio tells you all you need to know; big stuff, no command. The big bodied, 6'5" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball when he's at his best, adding three inconsistent secondary offerings, all of which will need refinement, but they were enough to generate chases and miss bats in the Big East. He may not sign here and instead opt to return to Queens to work on his command and pull it all together.
28-851: SS Brennan Milone (Woodstock HS [GA], my rank: 117)
Like Belge, Brennan Milone (not to be confused with Diamondbacks first rounder Brennan Malone) is unlikely to sign here. Milone will likely instead take his South Carolina scholarship and head to Columbia and build his stock for the 2022 draft. Presently, the Atlanta-area high schooler features a plus hit tool that stands out above the rest of his game. He gets the barrel into the zone quickly and can make consistent line drive contact even against better pitching, making him a fairly safe bet to hit in pro ball once he gets there. However, he's a skinnier guy and he's not guaranteed to generate much power, especially with his line drive swing, and he currently projects for about 10-15 home runs per season, albeit with good on-base percentages. He was drafted as a shortstop, but with his mediocre speed, he looks more like a second or third baseman, either of which he will be adequate at. If he can add some pop or at least further prove his hit tool, he could come out of South Carolina a potential Day One prospect.
Saturday, May 18, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Third Basemen
There aren't any top-flight third basemen available, but once you dip into the middle/back of the first round and into the second and third, lots of options begin to emerge, especially on the college side. Some of these guys might need to move to first base long term (plus Tyler Callihan, who was included in the first base section), where pressure would rise on their bats, but all have at least a solid shot at sticking there. Most of these guys are power over hit, though Josh Jung and some of the third tier guys are notable exceptions to that.
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
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