1-9: OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS (FL)
CBA-35: C Drew Romo, The Woodlands HS (TX)
2-46: RHP Chris McMahon, Miami
3-81: LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson
4-110: RHP Case Williams, Douglas County HS (CO)
5-140: SS Jack Blomgren, Michigan
I really like what the Rockies did here, especially at the top of the draft. Coors Field and Zac Veen's projectable power is is a match made in heaven, and they never expected him to make it all the way down to nine. While that pick really defines this class for me, I did like the next two picks as well. Drew Romo's glove looks like it could be hugely valuable for pitchers trying to work in high altitude, and I thought Chris McMahon had back of the first round value and he could be a steal in the second round. Later on, I'm really interested by Sam Weatherly's left arm but I'm far from sold on his strike throwing ability, and of course, I love a good hometown pick, so Castle Rock's Case Williams provides that (plus undrafted Blake Goldsberry). Lastly, Jack Blomgren and his utility profile rounds off the class pretty straightforwardly.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-9: OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS, FL (my rank: 7)
The Rockies were surprised but absolutely thrilled that Zac Veen was still available for them at the ninth overall pick. He was rumored as high as second overall to the Orioles and most mocks had him going somewhere in the four to seven range, but it was well known that there was no way the Rockies would let him slip past number nine. He's a perfect fit for Colorado with a gorgeous left handed swing with all the power projection in the world, which he has begun to tap into more and more. The power is true plus in batting practice and at this point plays above average in games, but with an uber-projectable 6'4" frame, it's easy to see him growing into plus-plus raw power that plays way up in Coors Field. Long and lean, his power comes from the tremendous loft and leverage he puts on the ball rather than elite bat speed (like Austin Hendrick) or elite strength (like Aaron Sabato), and that makes him perfect for Coors. Not a pure power hitter, he has actually played as hit-over-power at times in his prep career, as he has a very advanced approach at the plate with great pitch recognition and the ability to draw walks. The pure ability to make contact is perhaps a bit behind, but it's barely reason for concern given his plate discipline and youth. He's a solid defender that should be above average in right field, but the Rockies are clearly buying him for his bat. There's inherent risk with drafting any high school player, but the ceiling is high enough here that I won't even try to quantify it – I'll just say that his swing and overall game remind me of Cody Bellinger with a more normal glove. I'm excited to see him hit baseballs to the moon at Coors Field and you should be too. A native of the Daytona Beach area, he was committed to Florida but signed with the Rockies for $5 million, which was about $50,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-35: C Drew Romo, The Woodlands HS, TX (my rank: 46)
By ranking him 46th on my list, I was probably the low man on Drew Romo, because I'm really skeptical of high school catchers in general. If anyone else took him in this range, I wouldn't love the pick, but I actually think it makes a lot of sense for the Rockies. He was the best catcher left on the board and while you don't draft for need, the Rockies have struggled to find a reliable catcher for a long time. That doesn't justify this pick for me, but what does is that Romo projects to be the best defensive catcher in the entire class, high school or college, and that's critical in Colorado. Having a guy who can not only get the job done, but make his pitchers better in the process, is huge in a place where altitude will kill your confidence. If Romo can make the Rockies' pitchers better, he'll have at least fulfilled his value at the 35th pick. He's an excellent blocker and receiver with a cannon arm, which buys his bat all the slack in the world. His bat does need that slack this high in the draft, because it's fairly unremarkable at this point. A switch hitter, he shows an advanced approach at the plate befitting of a catcher and makes regular contact, and with a strong 6'1" frame, he projects for some power as well. With a simple, clean swing with some leverage, you could project him perhaps hitting 10-20 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages at Coors Field, which is definitely enough to keep him in the starting lineup given his glove. There's huge risk in developing high school catchers because so many of them have bats that just never come along, and Romo's bat isn't much different than many of those who built that poor track record of high school catchers, but given everything else, I like this pick for the Rox. Committed to LSU, the Houston-area native instead signed for $2.1 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-46: RHP Chris McMahon, Miami (my rank: 26)
While I don't know how great a fit Chris McMahon is for Coors Field in general, I do think he is an excellent get in the second round regardless of stadium. McMahon, who was a potential top 100 pick out of high school in the Philadelphia area, is one of the most complete pitchers in the college class outside of the top tier. He put up a solid sophomore season at Miami (2.90 ERA, 67/23 K/BB) before getting off to a red hot start as a junior, where he put up a 0.82 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 38/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings in what was not an easy non-conference schedule. The 6'2" right hander has above average stuff across the board, showing a low to mid 90's fastball that has been up as high as 98, an above average slider that can flash plus, and a great changeup that plays extremely well off his fastball. He has a durable frame, an easy, repeatable delivery, and above average to plus command that all give him a very good chance to wind up in a big league rotation. He's often been labeled more of a "safe bet" guy than a "high ceiling" type, and while there is some truth to that, I do think the stuff is loud enough that he's going to be more than a back-end starter. I see him more as a high-probability mid-rotation guy, and that's why I put first round grades on him. While the stuff is more above average than plus, I think it will be enough to miss bats and find success at Coors Field. This is great value in the second round, and his $1.64 million signing bonus was only about $20,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-81: LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (my rank: 106)
This is definitely an interesting arm with some really exciting stuff. Weatherly grew up about halfway between Detroit and Lansing but headed south to Clemson for college, where he has improved significantly each season. After putting up a 6.64 ERA as a freshman swingman and a 3.37 mark as a sophomore reliever, he transitioned to the rotation full time in 2020 and put up excellent numbers over his four starts with a 0.79 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 43/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings. As I mentioned, the stuff is exciting. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 96, and he adds a filthy frisbee slider that dives all the way across the plate in addition to a mediocre changeup. A great athlete, he has a really loose arm that makes the baseball very difficult to pick up out of his hand, and that deception makes both the fastball and slider play way up and miss a ton of bats. However, he struggles mightily with his strike throwing, as his poor 14.9% walk rate in 2020 was actually an improvement over 2019, when he walked 22.7% – 30 in 29.1 innings. There are no glaring mechanical flaws in his delivery, rather, he just lacks the overall feel to repeat his arm slot and throw strikes. From an onlooker's perspective, he's really just slinging the ball towards the plate. That fastball/slider combination is really hard to ignore from an athletic 6'4" lefty though, and the Rockies will hope to slow him down and get him more deliberate in his arm path. If he can't throw enough strikes to start, I could see that fastball slider combination playing way up in the bullpen if he can just get close to average command. Interesting arm for sure. Weatherly signed for $755,300, right at slot value.
4-110: RHP Case Williams, Douglas County HS, CO (unranked)
If you follow my draft reviews, you know I love a hometown pick, and while Colorado isn't the world's biggest hotbed of baseball talent, the Rockies still managed to pull one off. Case Williams is a pitcher from Douglas County High School in Castle Rock, about 27 miles south of Coors Field, so of all the pitchers who dread pitching there, this one might actually be excited about it. Williams is a 6'3" righty with a sturdy frame and a relatively low effort delivery, usually sitting around 90 with his fastball and adding a solid average curveball and decent changeup. However, he touched as high as 95 in spring bullpens, and the potential uptick in stuff had Rockies scouts excited. It certainly helps to bring on a player who is comfortable pitching at altitude, and if his curveball is solid average in Castle Rock, it's a potential above average or even plus pitch at sea level. A solid strike thrower, there are a lot of starter traits to like here, and the Rockies definitely think they can develop him into a workhorse mid-rotation guy if he continues the trend he's on. Committed to Santa Clara, he instead signed with his hometown team for $450,000, which was $77,800 below slot.
5-140: SS Jack Blomgren, Michigan (unranked)
For their last pick, the Rockies picked up a safe bet infielder out of Michigan. Jack Blomgren has been a solid performer for the Wolverines, slashing .309/.420/.399 with four home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 62/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games since the start of the 2019 season. The Janesville, Wisconsin native makes regular line drive contact from the right side but doesn't project for a ton of power, even at Coors, because the hit tool plays around average, I don't really see him hitting enough to start. He's a good defender who will stick at shortstop, which takes a lot of pressure off his bat and maximizes his value in the utility role that would fit him best down the line. He's not a flashy player, more a steady player on both sides of the ball who will get the job done at the big league level. His gritty, get-it-done style of play worked really well in a starting role in college, and it should continue to work well in a reserve role in pro ball. His $394,300 signing bonus was right at slot value.
Undrafted: RHP Blake Goldsberry, Kansas (unranked)
Case Williams won't be the only hometown pitcher heading to home to Colorado. Though Blake Goldsberry spent the past five seasons pitching for the Kansas Jayhawks, he grew up in the Denver area and attended Cherry Creek High School in Greenwood Village (though the Kansas website lists Highlands Ranch as his hometown). He's a 6'4" redshirt senior who has worked mostly in relief, and over the past three seasons he has a 3.33 ERA and a 51/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings (including ten shutout innings in 2020). There's not much video available, but he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 95 in relief, adding a slider and a changeup as well. Given that he already turned 23 in May, it's probably a straightforward relief profile.
Showing posts with label Chris McMahon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris McMahon. Show all posts
Friday, July 10, 2020
Sunday, April 12, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Chris McMahon
RHP Chris McMahon, Miami
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 38/5 K/BB in 25.2 IP
McMahon was a well-known prospect and potential top three rounds pick coming out of Rustin High School in the western Philadelphia suburbs in 2017, but he elected to head south to Miami and he's gotten better and better there. After getting his feet wet as a freshman, McMahon put up a solid sophomore campaign in 2019 (3.73 ERA, 67/23 K/BB in 60.1 IP) and pitched well with the US Collegiate National Team (2.25 ERA, 15/6 K/BB in 12 IP). In 2020, he's taken everything to another level, allowing a grand total of three runs against a relatively strong early-season schedule in Rutgers, Florida, Towson, and Pittsburgh. His start against a loaded Florida lineup was particularly impressive, where he allowed one run on six hits and two walks over six innings, striking out nine Gators on just 88 pitches.
What McMahon lacks in ceiling, he makes up for in now-ability and shows a pretty clear #3/#4 starter profile. He has a lot of power in his right arm that can run his fastball up to 98, but he's perfectly happy just settling in the mid 90's with a smooth, relatively low-effort delivery. He adds an improving mid 80's slider that elicits its share of swings and misses at its best, and he throws one of the better changeups in the class with serious armside fade. In part due to his easy delivery, he fills the strike zone consistently and projects for above average command.
With the potential for three plus pitches and good command, McMahon has everything he needs to be a #3 starter. Getting there will require him becoming a bit more consistent with his breaking ball, which can straighten out at times, but otherwise there aren't many holes in his game. He was off to a fantastic start in 2020 that was pushing him up boards, and in a year with a lot of uncertainty, that's an enticing package. Because he lacks the true strikeout pitch that you see from some of the other top arms in this class, it's hard to envision him as more than a #3, but the more you watch, it's hard to envision him as anything less either.
I'm one of the higher people on McMahon, and I absolutely see his skill set fitting somewhere in the 20's. In a draft class with a lot of uncertainty, he offers a safe impact starter who can stick in the rotation for a long time. When looking at him as the "safe" option, the only thing that really holds him back is a slightly shorter track record at the top of his game when compared to, say, Tanner Burns, but he's trending up and over the last two seasons he still has a 2.93 ERA and a 105/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings.
2020 start against Florida (home plate view)
2020 start against Towson (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.05 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 38/5 K/BB in 25.2 IP
McMahon was a well-known prospect and potential top three rounds pick coming out of Rustin High School in the western Philadelphia suburbs in 2017, but he elected to head south to Miami and he's gotten better and better there. After getting his feet wet as a freshman, McMahon put up a solid sophomore campaign in 2019 (3.73 ERA, 67/23 K/BB in 60.1 IP) and pitched well with the US Collegiate National Team (2.25 ERA, 15/6 K/BB in 12 IP). In 2020, he's taken everything to another level, allowing a grand total of three runs against a relatively strong early-season schedule in Rutgers, Florida, Towson, and Pittsburgh. His start against a loaded Florida lineup was particularly impressive, where he allowed one run on six hits and two walks over six innings, striking out nine Gators on just 88 pitches.
What McMahon lacks in ceiling, he makes up for in now-ability and shows a pretty clear #3/#4 starter profile. He has a lot of power in his right arm that can run his fastball up to 98, but he's perfectly happy just settling in the mid 90's with a smooth, relatively low-effort delivery. He adds an improving mid 80's slider that elicits its share of swings and misses at its best, and he throws one of the better changeups in the class with serious armside fade. In part due to his easy delivery, he fills the strike zone consistently and projects for above average command.
With the potential for three plus pitches and good command, McMahon has everything he needs to be a #3 starter. Getting there will require him becoming a bit more consistent with his breaking ball, which can straighten out at times, but otherwise there aren't many holes in his game. He was off to a fantastic start in 2020 that was pushing him up boards, and in a year with a lot of uncertainty, that's an enticing package. Because he lacks the true strikeout pitch that you see from some of the other top arms in this class, it's hard to envision him as more than a #3, but the more you watch, it's hard to envision him as anything less either.
I'm one of the higher people on McMahon, and I absolutely see his skill set fitting somewhere in the 20's. In a draft class with a lot of uncertainty, he offers a safe impact starter who can stick in the rotation for a long time. When looking at him as the "safe" option, the only thing that really holds him back is a slightly shorter track record at the top of his game when compared to, say, Tanner Burns, but he's trending up and over the last two seasons he still has a 2.93 ERA and a 105/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings.
2020 start against Florida (home plate view)
2020 start against Towson (CF view)
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Friday, June 30, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves
First 5 rounds: Kyle Wright (1-5), Drew Waters (2-41), Freddy Tarnok (3-80), Troy Bacon (4-110), Bruce Zimmerman (5-140)
Also notable: Landon Hughes (7-200), Hagen Owenby (12-350), Cade Cavalli (29-860), Chris McMahon (33-980)
The Braves already have arguably baseball's top farm system, and that's no surprise because they usually draft well. This year was no different, at least with their first few picks, after which they started to take a bunch of players I'd never heard of. They employed an interesting bonus strategy, drafting low-cost seniors from rounds 5-10 and saving almost $1.2 million total on those six picks. The Braves develop pitching better than almost anybody else, so it's no surprise they leaned pitching in this draft, though they did take a high school outfielder in the second round, a college third baseman in the sixth, and a college shortstop in the ninth. Another interesting thing was that each of their first nine picks come from the southeast, all within the states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
1-5: RHP Kyle Wright (my rank: 2)
The Braves must have been ecstatic when Wright fell past the Twins, Reds, Padres, and Rays in the first four picks. The Vanderbilt ace has one of the best combinations of upside and floor in this draft, and with the way the Braves develop pitching, he has a real chance to be an ace. Wright throws his fastball in the mid 90's, and he comes in with one of the deadliest slider/curveball combinations in the draft. The curve in particular has filthy, two-plane break, and all three pitches could be plus at the major league level. His changeup is coming along and shows promise, so not only does he have ace upside, but he has a relatively high floor as a power reliever. On the downside, Wright didn't quite dominate the SEC the way teams wanted him to this year (5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB), though he did rack up the K's. He grew up a Braves fan, and he signed for $7 million, which is nearly $1.3 million over slot.
2-41: OF Drew Waters (my rank: 21)
This is a great pick. Waters was arguably my favorite player (when normalized to general consensus) in this draft, coming in with easy first round upside. He's a risky pick as a high schooler, but so were the similarly tooled up Austin Beck and Jo Adell in the top ten picks, so I would have gladly taken Waters 20 picks higher. He's a great athlete and should be able to stick in center field, which takes the pressure off his bat, even though I think the bat is special. A switch hitter, he shows great bat speed from both sides of the plate, though his two swings aren't exactly the same. From the right side, he's more of a contact hitter, spraying line drives to all fields with a clean, quick swing. From the left side, he is more raw and has more moving parts, but he also has more loft and can launch the ball a mile. I think he has 20-20 upside with a chance to hit for average as well once the minor swing and miss issues are ironed out. Another local guy, Waters comes from the Atlanta area, giving them back to back (presumably) Braves fans with their first two picks. Waters signed for $1.5 million, which is actually $174,600 below slot, and I think that could be the steal of the draft here in the second round.
3-80: RHP Freddy Tarnok (unranked)
I'll admit to not knowing much about Tarnok before the draft, as he missed MLB.com's top 200 and ranked #170 on the Baseball America 500. I watched some video, and he's an athletic, projectable 6'4" right hander out of the Tampa area, with a terrible delivery that he still manages to reach the mid 90's from. Tarnok has a sharp curve with hard break, though it's inconsistent and the break is fairly early. Tarnok is a project, but he has high upside once the Braves fix that awful delivery. He signed for over $1.4 million, coming in at $736,000 over slot.
4-110: RHP Troy Bacon (unranked)
Bacon is a JuCo right hander with a projectable frame and easy low 90's heat and a good breaking ball, but he's already a reliever so his stuff has already taken that "jump forward" that comes with the transition from starting to relief. He could be a solid seventh inning guy, but I have heard negative remarks about his attitude. Bacon signed for $400,000, which is $87,400 below slot.
33-980: RHP Chris McMahon (my rank: 92)
McMahon won't sign here, and will instead attend Miami, where he could turn himself into a high pick. McMahon, a Pennsylvania high schooler, has a fairly unexciting tools package, as he throws in the low 90's with some movement and a decent arsenal which could help him start in the major leagues. Essentially, he knows how to pitch and has the tools to succeed, so he just needs to put them to work. He is likely a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if all goes right.
Others: 7th rounder Landon Hughes pitched two years at JuCo powerhouse Wallace State, which also produced Craig Kimbrel, before transferring to Georgia Southern and spending two years as a vital member of their bullpen. Combining his two years in Statesboro, the projectable, 6'5" righty went 11-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, striking out 113 batters and walking 30 in 105 innings. 12th rounder Hagen Owenby had a successful three year career at East Tennessee State, serving as the catcher and slashing .347/.426/.584 with 37 home runs in 163 games. 29th rounder Cade Cavalli is a high-upside high school pitcher from Oklahoma, one who only came to pitching recently. In the 29th round, it's highly unlikely that he signs, and instead he'll likely head to Oklahoma. He can hit the mid 90's despite his lack of experience pitching, and he could emerge from three years in Norman as a high pick.
Also notable: Landon Hughes (7-200), Hagen Owenby (12-350), Cade Cavalli (29-860), Chris McMahon (33-980)
The Braves already have arguably baseball's top farm system, and that's no surprise because they usually draft well. This year was no different, at least with their first few picks, after which they started to take a bunch of players I'd never heard of. They employed an interesting bonus strategy, drafting low-cost seniors from rounds 5-10 and saving almost $1.2 million total on those six picks. The Braves develop pitching better than almost anybody else, so it's no surprise they leaned pitching in this draft, though they did take a high school outfielder in the second round, a college third baseman in the sixth, and a college shortstop in the ninth. Another interesting thing was that each of their first nine picks come from the southeast, all within the states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
1-5: RHP Kyle Wright (my rank: 2)
The Braves must have been ecstatic when Wright fell past the Twins, Reds, Padres, and Rays in the first four picks. The Vanderbilt ace has one of the best combinations of upside and floor in this draft, and with the way the Braves develop pitching, he has a real chance to be an ace. Wright throws his fastball in the mid 90's, and he comes in with one of the deadliest slider/curveball combinations in the draft. The curve in particular has filthy, two-plane break, and all three pitches could be plus at the major league level. His changeup is coming along and shows promise, so not only does he have ace upside, but he has a relatively high floor as a power reliever. On the downside, Wright didn't quite dominate the SEC the way teams wanted him to this year (5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB), though he did rack up the K's. He grew up a Braves fan, and he signed for $7 million, which is nearly $1.3 million over slot.
2-41: OF Drew Waters (my rank: 21)
This is a great pick. Waters was arguably my favorite player (when normalized to general consensus) in this draft, coming in with easy first round upside. He's a risky pick as a high schooler, but so were the similarly tooled up Austin Beck and Jo Adell in the top ten picks, so I would have gladly taken Waters 20 picks higher. He's a great athlete and should be able to stick in center field, which takes the pressure off his bat, even though I think the bat is special. A switch hitter, he shows great bat speed from both sides of the plate, though his two swings aren't exactly the same. From the right side, he's more of a contact hitter, spraying line drives to all fields with a clean, quick swing. From the left side, he is more raw and has more moving parts, but he also has more loft and can launch the ball a mile. I think he has 20-20 upside with a chance to hit for average as well once the minor swing and miss issues are ironed out. Another local guy, Waters comes from the Atlanta area, giving them back to back (presumably) Braves fans with their first two picks. Waters signed for $1.5 million, which is actually $174,600 below slot, and I think that could be the steal of the draft here in the second round.
3-80: RHP Freddy Tarnok (unranked)
I'll admit to not knowing much about Tarnok before the draft, as he missed MLB.com's top 200 and ranked #170 on the Baseball America 500. I watched some video, and he's an athletic, projectable 6'4" right hander out of the Tampa area, with a terrible delivery that he still manages to reach the mid 90's from. Tarnok has a sharp curve with hard break, though it's inconsistent and the break is fairly early. Tarnok is a project, but he has high upside once the Braves fix that awful delivery. He signed for over $1.4 million, coming in at $736,000 over slot.
4-110: RHP Troy Bacon (unranked)
Bacon is a JuCo right hander with a projectable frame and easy low 90's heat and a good breaking ball, but he's already a reliever so his stuff has already taken that "jump forward" that comes with the transition from starting to relief. He could be a solid seventh inning guy, but I have heard negative remarks about his attitude. Bacon signed for $400,000, which is $87,400 below slot.
33-980: RHP Chris McMahon (my rank: 92)
McMahon won't sign here, and will instead attend Miami, where he could turn himself into a high pick. McMahon, a Pennsylvania high schooler, has a fairly unexciting tools package, as he throws in the low 90's with some movement and a decent arsenal which could help him start in the major leagues. Essentially, he knows how to pitch and has the tools to succeed, so he just needs to put them to work. He is likely a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if all goes right.
Others: 7th rounder Landon Hughes pitched two years at JuCo powerhouse Wallace State, which also produced Craig Kimbrel, before transferring to Georgia Southern and spending two years as a vital member of their bullpen. Combining his two years in Statesboro, the projectable, 6'5" righty went 11-4 with a 2.49 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP, striking out 113 batters and walking 30 in 105 innings. 12th rounder Hagen Owenby had a successful three year career at East Tennessee State, serving as the catcher and slashing .347/.426/.584 with 37 home runs in 163 games. 29th rounder Cade Cavalli is a high-upside high school pitcher from Oklahoma, one who only came to pitching recently. In the 29th round, it's highly unlikely that he signs, and instead he'll likely head to Oklahoma. He can hit the mid 90's despite his lack of experience pitching, and he could emerge from three years in Norman as a high pick.
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