The A's have graduated some high level prospects recently, such as Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, and Frankie Montas, leaving the system with less depth than it has had in recent years, and injuries have taken a toll on the pitching depth. Some of the team's top pitching prospects in A.J. Puk, James Kaprielian, Grant Holmes, and Daulton Jefferies combined to throw all of eight innings in 2018, leaving the system mostly hitting-heavy. There is a lot of high ceiling talent here, though the A's do have their share of safe bets too when it comes to hitters.
Affiliates: AAA Nashville Sounds*, AA Midland RockHounds, High A Stockton Ports, Class A Beloit Snappers, Short Season Vermont Lake Monsters, complex level AZL and DSL Athletics
*AAA affiliate will move from Nashville, TN to Las Vegas, NV in 2019
The Headliner: LHP Jesus Luzardo
21 year old Jesus Luzardo, who came over from the Nationals in the Sean Doolittle trade, is in my opinion the top left handed pitching prospect in all of baseball. The 6'1" lefty, a 2016 alumnus of Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, dominated the minors in 2018 by putting up a 2.88 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 129/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.1 innings at High A Stockton, AA Midland, and AAA Nashville, though he was hit around a bit at the last stop. He was excellent at Stockton (1.23 ERA, 25/5 K/BB in 14.2 IP) and Midland (2.29 ERA, 86/18 K/BB in 78.2 IP), but his four starts in Nashville (7.31 ERA, 18/7 K/BB in 16 IP) skewed his numbers a bit. Still, Luzardo throws in the mid 90's with very good secondary stuff, and with his advanced command, he's a truly complete pitcher with ace potential, even Rookie of the Year potential if he gets called up early enough in 2019. A's fans should be very excited over their Peruvian-American star prospect, one who could be the next Sonny Gray or better in Oakland, starting this coming season.
Outfielders/Catcher: C Sean Murphy, OF Greg Deichmann, OF Lazaro Armenteros, OF Austin Beck, OF Jameson Hannah, and OF Kyler Murray
The A's have an interesting group of outfielders, mostly towards the bottom of the system, and there is a good mix of skills down there. Most of them are fast and good defenders, though there is some power in the group and each player is pretty unique. I'll start with the catcher that I threw onto this list, 24 year old Sean Murphy. Murphy is a fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block, frame, and throw with any catcher in the minors. Any type of production at all, such as in 2017 when he slashed .250/.313/.410 with 13 home runs, would be enough to make him a valuable back-up, but this year he broke out by slashing .285/.361/.489 with eight home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at AA Midland. He missed a month and a half with a broken hand, but the power he showed (he also hit 27 doubles) could actually make him a starting catcher in the majors, something that is tough to find nowadays. He probably doesn't hit for high averages or even get on base at a high rate, but with some power and that great defense, he's one of the better catching prospects in baseball. 23 year old Greg Deichmann, a 6'2" outfielder, had a disappointing first full season this year by slashing .216/.294/.417 with seven home runs and a 71/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games between High A Stockton and complex ball rehab, missing a big chunk of the season with a wrist injury. He was known for his power back at LSU, but the wrist injury may have sapped some of that this year, and he'll need that power to overcome his swing and miss tendencies. He'll get another shot in 2019, where a healthy Deichmann could break out with plenty of home runs, but that hinges on his ability to make contact against pro stuff. 19 year old Lazaro Armenteros and 20 year old Austin Beck are fairly similar prospects, both joining the system amid plenty of fanfare in 2017 and showing similar skill sets while they played together at Class A Beloit this year. Armenteros slashed .277/.374/.401 with eight home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 115/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, while Beck slashed .296/.335/.383 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 117/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games. While Armenteros posted numbers along the lines of what you would expect, showing some power, speed, and patience, Beck's numbers didn't quite match the scouting reports. He has a ton of raw power in his quick bat, but instead of hitting a bunch of home runs, he hit 29 doubles (plus four triples), not tapping into that home run power enough. Hopefully, the power will manifest itself soon, and with his high-level defense, the 2017 sixth overall pick could be an impact player on both sides of the ball. As for Armenteros, his offensive outlook is similar but he doesn't quite play the same defense as Beck. 21 year old Jameson Hannah doesn't quite have the offensive upside as Armenteros or Beck, but the 2018 second rounder (50th overall) has a good shot to become fourth outfielder or even a decent regular. Hannah slashed .279/.347/.384 with a home run, six stolen bases, and a 24/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at short season Vermont in his pro debut. His best tool is his speed, which goes a long way on the bases and in the outfield, and he also gets on base at a high rate as an advanced hitter. He lacks power, putting pressure on his on-base ability to play up if he wants to start. Lastly, we have 21 year old Kyler Murray, perhaps the most interesting prospect in baseball. He hasn't played yet despite being drafted ninth overall in 2018, and that's because he's busy getting ready for the College Football Playoff after winning the Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's quarterback. As you would expect, he's both raw and ultra athletic, showing great speed and the ability to make adjustments on the field. After failing to produce much at the plate during his first two years in college baseball, he broke out with a big year last year and the A's hope he can continue that upward trajectory in the minors. At this point, he shows an average bat with a tendency to swing and miss, but as he focuses on baseball alone, he should improve. Just how much he improves will be the difference as to whether he's a fourth outfielder or an impact starter, but he's an exciting prospect to have in the system. There have been rumors that he wants to go to the NFL instead, but at this point that is unlikely.
Infielders: SS Jorge Mateo, 3B Sheldon Neuse, 3B Nate Mondou, SS Kevin Merrell, SS Nick Allen, and SS Jeremy Eierman
As with the outfield, the infield features a diverse array of players that can all do different things. There's not much in terms of impact talent here, though some guys (particularly Mateo and Eierman) have the potential to develop into impact prospects down the road. 23 year old Jorge Mateo is very well known, having come over from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray deal in the midst of a big 2017 (.267/.322/.459, 12 HR, 52 SB). His 2018 was a bit of a disappointment, as he slashed .230/.280/.353 with three home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 139/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AAA Nashville. His aggressive approach did not hold up well against the most advanced pitching in the minors, but he did continue to show off his blazing speed and good gap power. Though he only hit three home runs, he knocked 17 doubles and 16 triples, so he's not just a singles hitter. Defensively, he looks good enough defensively to stick at shortstop, but second base or center field may be in his future due to Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman owning the left side of the Oakland infield. Another year in AAA could be all he needs to get his bat going against advanced pitching, in which case he could be a valuable starter for the A's in late 2019 or 2020, but otherwise he'll end up a speedy utility man. 24 year old Sheldon Neuse came over with Jesus Luzardo in the Sean Doolittle trade, though like Mateo, his 2017 (.321/.382/.502, 16 HR) was much better than his 2018. This year, he slashed .263/.304/.357 with five home runs and a 172/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at Nashville, looking overmatched by upper level pitching and not getting to his power nearly as often as he would have liked to. Overall he has a pretty average bat, which is okay because he's up at the top of the minors and plays a pretty good third base. He's blocked by Chapman there, though he could try his hand at second and probably ends up a utility bat anyways given his strikeout issues. 23 year old Nate Mondou had a good season, slashing .279/.356/.399 with eight home runs, ten stolen bases, and an 84/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 136 games between High A Stockton and AA Midland, though most of his production came at hitter-friendly Stockton, which is also the lower level (.291/.361/.448 vs .255/.345/.297). He's a patient hitter with a good approach at the plate, though he is just an average hitter overall and is unlikely to challenge for a starting spot, instead looking like a utility guy. 23 year old Kevin Merrell is an interesting prospect, one whose numbers haven't quite matched the scouting reports. In 2018, he slashed .291/.335/.365 with no home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 70/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games between Stockton and rehab work in complex and short season ball. He's one of the fastest players in the system, possibly behind only Jorge Mateo and Kyler Murray, but that didn't translate into stolen bases at Stockton this year as he was slowed by injury. He also makes ready contact and can get on base, but again the numbers didn't quite match (he hit just .267/.308/.326 at Stockton), though he was never expected to hit for much power. 2018 was disappointing, but the A's hope he can prove himself as a high on-base, high steal utility prospect in 2019. 20 year old Nick Allen is interesting for different reasons, coming off a season where he slashed just .239/.301/.302 with no home runs, 24 stolen bases, and an 85/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Beloit. He didn't hit a lick, but that was expected because the A's drafted him for his defense, hoping the bat would develop in time. He's a superb defender at shortstop, one who can not only stick there but win Gold Gloves too. His bat is far behind his glove, and he's listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, so the A's will continue to work with him to develop some gap power. The lowish strikeout rate (16.6%) was nice given that pitchers were probably going right after him, so there is something to build on offensively. Lastly, 22 year old Jeremy Eierman was just drafted in the competitive balance round (70th overall) out of Missouri State, and he slashed .235/.283/.381 with eight home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 70/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Vermont. He has a high ceiling with power and good defense on the left side of the infield, possibly even at shortstop, but his approach needs a lot of work for a college hitter and he might not be up in the majors for a little while. If he cuts down the strikeouts dramatically, he could be an impactful starting infielder in the long run.
Injured Pitchers: LHP A.J. Puk, RHP Grant Holmes, RHP James Kaprielian, and RHP Daulton Jefferies
As I wrote at the top, this entire group combined to throw just eight innings in 2018, yet all are good enough pitching prospects that they still seriously factor into the A's' future. I'll start with 23 year old A.J. Puk, a 6'7" lefty who was drafted sixth overall out of Florida in 2016. In 2017, his only full season, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 184/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 innings at High A Stockton and AA Midland, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and after missing that season, he'll probably get a late start to 2019 as well. Still, when he steps back on the mound at some point next spring, he'll probably be the A's' top pitching prospect if Jesus Luzardo has exceeded rookie limits at that point. He throws in the mid to upper 90's and misses bats with a wicked slider, helping him mount up strikeouts at an incredible rate. He was supposed to spend 2018 working on his changeup and command, both of which are coming along but which need considerable work if he wants to start in the majors, so that work will be pushed to 2019. If he can take care of just one of those two, he will be a useful mid-rotation starter, and if he can take care of both, he'll be battling Luzardo for the role of #1 starter in Oakland. However, if he remains a fastball/slider pitcher only, he would be a very good late-inning reliever. I played against 22 year old Grant Holmes' former Conway (SC) High School in 2015, the year after he graduated and was drafted in the first round (22nd overall) by the Dodgers, but I'm not sure I would have wanted to face mid 90's sinkers. Holmes came over in the Josh Reddick trade in 2016 and after a pretty decent 2017 at AA Midland (4.49 ERA, 150/61 K/BB) he missed all but two games in 2018 with a shoulder injury. The good news is that he was healthy by the end of the season and made two pretty good starts at Stockton (6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K), and he should be ready to go for another crack at the high minors in 2019 at 23 years old. Aside from that great sinker, Holmes throws a very good curveball and a decent changeup with just enough command to make it all work, so he's really only one adjustment away from being a major league starter. In a healthy 2019, if he can improve that command a little, he could be a #3 or #4 starter by mid-season. 24 year old James Kaprielian, yet another former first round pick (16th overall out of UCLA in 2015), came over from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray trade. Tommy John surgery wiped out both his 2017 and 2018 seasons, and he only threw 29.1 minor league innings from 2015-2016, so the fact that he is still considered a valuable prospect is a testament to his skill. Since he hasn't pitched much at all over the past three seasons, it's hard to say exactly what his stuff will look like in 2019, but back when he was healthy he sat in the low 90's with a very advanced arsenal overall, and with his great command, he already looked the part of a major league pitcher and could have moved very quickly. Indeed, in his 29.1 career minor league innings, he has a 2.45 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/7 strikeout to walk ratio. Once healthy in 2019, the first box to check will be making sure he's still the same pitcher he was a couple years ago, but if he is, he could be up in the majors much sooner rather than later a a mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Daulton Jefferies is the only pitcher on this list who wasn't a first rounder, having been drafted in the competitive balance round (37th overall, just missed!) in 2016 out of Cal-Berkeley. Like Kaprielian, he has been injured nearly constantly, throwing just 20.1 innings over his three years in the minors, though he holds a 2.21 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 28/3 strikeout to walk ratio when he's on the mound. Tommy John surgery and a slow recovery has been the issue for him as well, and while his arsenal isn't quite as advanced as Kaprielian's, he still has good command of pretty good stuff and should move fairly quickly when he returns for a healthy 2019. I like Kaprielian better as a prospect, but Jefferies could still be a #4 starter, though there is significant reliever risk.
Healthy Pitchers: RHP Parker Dunshee, RHP Brian Howard, RHP Wyatt Marks, and RHP Brady Feigl
So the A's have lots of injured pitchers who could be impact starters down the road, but what do they have left in terms of guys who actually pitched in 2018? The answer is not much in terms of impact pitching talent (behind Jesus Luzardo, obviously), but there are some interesting back-end starter types and out of the players I chose to highlight, they're all 23. 23 year old Parker Dunshee was fantastic in the mid-minors this year, posting a 2.33 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 163/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 150.2 innings between High A Stockton and AA Midland, losing no effectiveness at the higher level and bringing his career minor league ERA to 1.98. His stuff is just average, as he throws a low 90's fastball with decent secondary pitches, but he commands it all very well and knows how to mix his pitches to keep hitters off balance well enough to dominate everywhere he has been. He looks like a #5 starter at this point, but these guys can sneak up on you and he shouldn't be counted out for more just yet. As a fun aside, he was teammates with Nate Mondou (see infielders section) at Wake Forest from 2014-2016, now again at AA Midland, and potentially in the future in Oakland. 23 year old Brian Howard had a great season right alongside Dunshee, posting a 2.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 140/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.1 innings at Stockton and Midland, though unlike Dunshee he was noticeably better at the lower level. Howard, out of TCU, is an absolute string bean at 6'9" and 185 pounds, using his height to make his average stuff play up. He has a similar outlook to Dunshee given his similar skills and performance, and while some would give him the higher ceiling due to his height (pun completely intended), I hesitate to project further height-related development to guys his age; I think he is what he is at this point, give or take a few mechanical adjustments. 23 year old Wyatt Marks posted a 3.30 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 159/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings between Class A Beloit and Stockton, blowing his good fastball/curveball combination by A ball hitters who weren't quite as advanced. His mediocre command and lack of a trustworthy changeup give him reliever risk, with his fastball and curveball not being quite good enough to make up for deficiencies on those fronts. There is still an outside shot he can make it to the majors as a starter, but as a reliever he could be fairly valuable. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Feigl (not to be confused with 27 year old Rangers minor league pitcher Brady Fiegl) was just drafted out of Ole Miss in the fifth round in 2018, and he had a successful debut in which he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings between short season Vermont and Beloit. The 6'5" right profiles as a workhorse back-end starter type, one who could move through the minor leagues fairly quickly but whose upside is limited.
Showing posts with label Jeremy Eierman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeremy Eierman. Show all posts
Friday, December 21, 2018
Thursday, June 28, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Oakland A's
First 5 rounds: Kyler Murray (1-9), Jameson Hannah (2-50), Jeremy Eierman (CBB-70), Hogan Harris (3-85), Alfonso Rivas (4-113), Brady Feigl (5-143)
Also notable: J.J. Schwarz (8-233), Joe DeMers (11-323), Al Jones (25-743)
Like the Angels, the A's went heavy on college players this year, taking just one high schooler in their first 35 picks. On top of that, four of their first five picks were position players, and the first three are all known for their athleticism. They got some decent talent, but given the relative risk in the college players they drafted, I'm not so sure the upside is enough to make up for it.
1-9: OF Kyler Murray (my rank: 39)
Murray was hard to rank and is even harder to project, so while my ranking reflects poorly on the value here, this pick could make the A's look like geniuses or it could be a total bust. Murray is actually one of the best athletes in the country right now, as he is also a star quarterback. He could have been drafted in the top 50 picks out of high school in 2015, but he was also committed to Texas A&M to play quarterback as one of the top dual-threat recruits in the country. His career never materialized in College Station and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he struggled at the plate as a sophomore in the spring (.122/.317/.122, 20/13 K/BB) and then backed up Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield in the fall. Then, in the spring, something turned on for him and he slashed .296/.398/.556 with 10 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. Based on Murray's split focus with football and year off from baseball in 2016, you would expect him to be rusty, but his big junior year was a surprise. He's just 5'11" but shows power, surprising contact (24.8% strikeout rate is high, but not astronomical given the circumstances) and plate discipline (12.4% walk rate), and great range in center field. His arm plays below average despite being a Power 5 quarterback, but as he focuses on baseball, it should improve. The A's signed him for $4.66 million, which is $101,500 below slot, but he'll get the chance to take over as Mayfield's heir to the starting quarterback position in Norman in the fall. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in August, so that always helps. Still, this is the ninth overall pick and guys like Brady Singer (#2 on my list), Matthew Liberatore (#3), Travis Swaggerty (#8), and Cole Winn (#9) were still available. In my opinion, Swaggerty is the same player that Murray is but with a higher floor.
2-50: OF Jameson Hannah (my rank: 48)
Another pick, another speedy college outfielder. Dallas Baptist's Jameson Hannah finished up a junior season where he slashed .360/.444/.555 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and an even 35/35 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in his game. He'll never hit for power, but he has solid bat to ball skills as his 12.6% strikeout rate shows, and he can draw a walk as well, as that 12.6% rate also shows. He gets on base and plays good defense, and there's not much mystery in his profile. Think Span at best or a fourth outfielder type at worst. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $385,800 above slot. Seven games into his minor league career in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .280/.357/.440 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio; nothing unexpected there.
CBB-70: SS Jeremy Eierman (my rank: 30)
If Murray and Hannah were risers this year, Eierman was the opposite. The Missouri State star had a huge sophomore season last year (.313/.431/.675, 23 HR, 61/41 K/BB) but regressed this year (.287/.379/.516, 10 HR, 47/27 K/BB), changing his approach and selling out for home runs. Last year, his swing was short and compact and he was able to pile up home runs by barreling up the ball consistently and taking advantage of his home park's short fences. This year, his swing got long and he added more power to it, but he was unable to catch the barrel as much and that's why his power dropped. It will be interesting to see where his approach settles in pro ball, because he's not the biggest guy (6'1", 205 lbs) and might need that long swing to make his power play up with wood bats, but he also has such a high strikeout rate (18% with short swing in 2017, 24.1% with long swing in 2018) that he might never be able to adjust to the long swing. Either way, he has shown plenty of pure hitting ability and even if he goes back to the short swing, he could still succeed if his power doesn't play up. He's fast, having also stolen 21 bases this year, and he plays adequate defense at shortstop and might be able to stay there. If not, he should have no problem being an above-average defensive third baseman. Scouts love his attitude, describing him as a grinder who plays hard and wants to get better every day. He signed for $1.232 million, which is $359,600 above slot. Through seven games in the New York-Penn League, he is slashing .172/.200/.276 with a home run and a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio, though a seven game sample means essentially nothing.
3-85: LHP Hogan Harris (my rank: 105)
Harris pitched well at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, going 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 54/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty with a stocky build, and he throws in the low to mid 90's with a good curveball and a slider and changeup as well. However, nagging injuries have slowed him down, which has hurt his command and kept him from putting up more than 67.2 innings in any of his three seasons in Lafayette. The A's will hope a pro training regimen will help him overcome those injury issues, and if he can stay on the mound consistently, his fringy command could improve enough to make him a #3 or #4 starter in a major league rotation. If not, he might be better off in the bullpen. He signed for $660,000, which is $23,800 below slot.
4-113: 1B Alfonso Rivas (unranked)
Rivas plays first base at Arizona, where he slashed .347/.429/.533 with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. Obviously, as a first baseman, his value is tied to his bat. With a .429 on-base percentage and a 14.3% strikeout rate, he has shown that he can get on base and that the hit tool will play up in pro ball. However, at six feet tall and with only moderate power for the time being, he's not a sure thing to reach the majors. He has strong wrists and should be able to generate more power with pro coaching, but as I said, he's a first baseman who will have to hit and hit well if he wants to be a valuable major leaguer. He signed for $446,500, which is $46,500 below slot. Through eight games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .259/.412/.481 with a home run and a 4/7 strikeout to walk ratio; a good start, but too early to tell anything.
Others: 5th rounder Brady Feigl may not be the only pitcher of that name in pro baseball (what an unusual name for there to be two of), but he was a valuable veteran pitcher for a very young Ole Miss team this year by going 8-5 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 93/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. The 6'5" righty profiles as a workhorse, one who can eat innings as a back-end starter with command and durability. 8th rounder J.J. Schwarz burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR), but he regressed as a sophomore (.290/.397/.456, 7 HR) and as a junior (.259/.351/.444, 12 HR) before bouncing back this year as a senior (.325/.404/.601, 12 HR, 53/28 K/BB). The longtime Florida Gator star leaves Gainesville with 49 home runs and 235 RBI over 262 games, and he'll go down as one of the most productive hitters in Gator history, but we're here to talk about the future. Schwartz was drafted as a catcher and will be given every chance to stick there, though there is a good chance he ends up at first. He has big power that he generates mostly through sheer strength, though I think he could cut his strikeout rate by extending his follow through during his swing. 11th rounder Joe DeMers threw a perfect game earlier this year against UC Riverside, finishing his season 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 123 innings for Washington. The 6'1" righty is listed at 240 pounds and he, like Feigl, looks like an innings-eating workhorse as a starter. 25th rounder Al Jones could have been a top two or three rounds pick out of high school in 2015, but he went to Vanderbilt instead and it hasn't quite added up yet. This year, he slashed .193/.276/.273 with a pair of home runs and an ugly 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio, really not doing much of anything for the Commodores other than playing good defense. I doubt he signs here, but he'll have to translate his raw skills to on-field results soon if he wants to get his career going.
Also notable: J.J. Schwarz (8-233), Joe DeMers (11-323), Al Jones (25-743)
Like the Angels, the A's went heavy on college players this year, taking just one high schooler in their first 35 picks. On top of that, four of their first five picks were position players, and the first three are all known for their athleticism. They got some decent talent, but given the relative risk in the college players they drafted, I'm not so sure the upside is enough to make up for it.
1-9: OF Kyler Murray (my rank: 39)
Murray was hard to rank and is even harder to project, so while my ranking reflects poorly on the value here, this pick could make the A's look like geniuses or it could be a total bust. Murray is actually one of the best athletes in the country right now, as he is also a star quarterback. He could have been drafted in the top 50 picks out of high school in 2015, but he was also committed to Texas A&M to play quarterback as one of the top dual-threat recruits in the country. His career never materialized in College Station and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he struggled at the plate as a sophomore in the spring (.122/.317/.122, 20/13 K/BB) and then backed up Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield in the fall. Then, in the spring, something turned on for him and he slashed .296/.398/.556 with 10 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and a 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games. Based on Murray's split focus with football and year off from baseball in 2016, you would expect him to be rusty, but his big junior year was a surprise. He's just 5'11" but shows power, surprising contact (24.8% strikeout rate is high, but not astronomical given the circumstances) and plate discipline (12.4% walk rate), and great range in center field. His arm plays below average despite being a Power 5 quarterback, but as he focuses on baseball, it should improve. The A's signed him for $4.66 million, which is $101,500 below slot, but he'll get the chance to take over as Mayfield's heir to the starting quarterback position in Norman in the fall. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in August, so that always helps. Still, this is the ninth overall pick and guys like Brady Singer (#2 on my list), Matthew Liberatore (#3), Travis Swaggerty (#8), and Cole Winn (#9) were still available. In my opinion, Swaggerty is the same player that Murray is but with a higher floor.
2-50: OF Jameson Hannah (my rank: 48)
Another pick, another speedy college outfielder. Dallas Baptist's Jameson Hannah finished up a junior season where he slashed .360/.444/.555 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and an even 35/35 strikeout to walk ratio. He's just 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in his game. He'll never hit for power, but he has solid bat to ball skills as his 12.6% strikeout rate shows, and he can draw a walk as well, as that 12.6% rate also shows. He gets on base and plays good defense, and there's not much mystery in his profile. Think Span at best or a fourth outfielder type at worst. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $385,800 above slot. Seven games into his minor league career in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .280/.357/.440 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio; nothing unexpected there.
CBB-70: SS Jeremy Eierman (my rank: 30)
If Murray and Hannah were risers this year, Eierman was the opposite. The Missouri State star had a huge sophomore season last year (.313/.431/.675, 23 HR, 61/41 K/BB) but regressed this year (.287/.379/.516, 10 HR, 47/27 K/BB), changing his approach and selling out for home runs. Last year, his swing was short and compact and he was able to pile up home runs by barreling up the ball consistently and taking advantage of his home park's short fences. This year, his swing got long and he added more power to it, but he was unable to catch the barrel as much and that's why his power dropped. It will be interesting to see where his approach settles in pro ball, because he's not the biggest guy (6'1", 205 lbs) and might need that long swing to make his power play up with wood bats, but he also has such a high strikeout rate (18% with short swing in 2017, 24.1% with long swing in 2018) that he might never be able to adjust to the long swing. Either way, he has shown plenty of pure hitting ability and even if he goes back to the short swing, he could still succeed if his power doesn't play up. He's fast, having also stolen 21 bases this year, and he plays adequate defense at shortstop and might be able to stay there. If not, he should have no problem being an above-average defensive third baseman. Scouts love his attitude, describing him as a grinder who plays hard and wants to get better every day. He signed for $1.232 million, which is $359,600 above slot. Through seven games in the New York-Penn League, he is slashing .172/.200/.276 with a home run and a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio, though a seven game sample means essentially nothing.
3-85: LHP Hogan Harris (my rank: 105)
Harris pitched well at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette, going 5-2 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 54/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty with a stocky build, and he throws in the low to mid 90's with a good curveball and a slider and changeup as well. However, nagging injuries have slowed him down, which has hurt his command and kept him from putting up more than 67.2 innings in any of his three seasons in Lafayette. The A's will hope a pro training regimen will help him overcome those injury issues, and if he can stay on the mound consistently, his fringy command could improve enough to make him a #3 or #4 starter in a major league rotation. If not, he might be better off in the bullpen. He signed for $660,000, which is $23,800 below slot.
4-113: 1B Alfonso Rivas (unranked)
Rivas plays first base at Arizona, where he slashed .347/.429/.533 with seven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games. Obviously, as a first baseman, his value is tied to his bat. With a .429 on-base percentage and a 14.3% strikeout rate, he has shown that he can get on base and that the hit tool will play up in pro ball. However, at six feet tall and with only moderate power for the time being, he's not a sure thing to reach the majors. He has strong wrists and should be able to generate more power with pro coaching, but as I said, he's a first baseman who will have to hit and hit well if he wants to be a valuable major leaguer. He signed for $446,500, which is $46,500 below slot. Through eight games in the New York-Penn League, he's slashing .259/.412/.481 with a home run and a 4/7 strikeout to walk ratio; a good start, but too early to tell anything.
Others: 5th rounder Brady Feigl may not be the only pitcher of that name in pro baseball (what an unusual name for there to be two of), but he was a valuable veteran pitcher for a very young Ole Miss team this year by going 8-5 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 93/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. The 6'5" righty profiles as a workhorse, one who can eat innings as a back-end starter with command and durability. 8th rounder J.J. Schwarz burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2015 (.332/.398/.629, 18 HR), but he regressed as a sophomore (.290/.397/.456, 7 HR) and as a junior (.259/.351/.444, 12 HR) before bouncing back this year as a senior (.325/.404/.601, 12 HR, 53/28 K/BB). The longtime Florida Gator star leaves Gainesville with 49 home runs and 235 RBI over 262 games, and he'll go down as one of the most productive hitters in Gator history, but we're here to talk about the future. Schwartz was drafted as a catcher and will be given every chance to stick there, though there is a good chance he ends up at first. He has big power that he generates mostly through sheer strength, though I think he could cut his strikeout rate by extending his follow through during his swing. 11th rounder Joe DeMers threw a perfect game earlier this year against UC Riverside, finishing his season 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 123 innings for Washington. The 6'1" righty is listed at 240 pounds and he, like Feigl, looks like an innings-eating workhorse as a starter. 25th rounder Al Jones could have been a top two or three rounds pick out of high school in 2015, but he went to Vanderbilt instead and it hasn't quite added up yet. This year, he slashed .193/.276/.273 with a pair of home runs and an ugly 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio, really not doing much of anything for the Commodores other than playing good defense. I doubt he signs here, but he'll have to translate his raw skills to on-field results soon if he wants to get his career going.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Third Basemen
Much like in the majors, third base is absolutely loaded in this class, with five players having the potential to go in the first round, three of which could go in the top half. Some of these guys could move to first base, but those who can stick at third have less pressure on their bats than their first base counterparts, and many of the game's best players today man the hot corner.
1. Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
Part of one of the best one-two punches in the middle of any lineup in college baseball, Bohm took off this year with 16 home runs and a .339/.436/.625 slash line, walking way more (39) than he struck out (28). Though he'll probably need a slight swing change to get to his power more often in pro ball, the power is real right now, and he is arguably the best present hitter in the class. He destroyed the Cape Cod League as well (5 HR, .351/.399/.513, 21/12 K/BB), and for a power hitter, it is very difficult to get the ball by him. His defense at third base is just adequate, and he might have to move to first base eventually, but he's got plenty of bat to profile there and could end up an All Star. He's unlikely to fall out of the top ten picks.
2. Jonathan India (Florida)
While it's hard to view Bohm as anything but the best third baseman in the class, Jonathan India is making it tough to call it a slam dunk. Despite facing SEC pitching, which is the toughest in the NCAA, he still slashed .364/.504/.733 with 18 home runs and more walks (49) than strikeouts (48) for the Gators. Those ridiculous numbers were the product of better pitch recognition and improved physical shape, and projects to impact the game in a lot of ways as a pro. While he will never have Bohm's power, he matches him in bat to ball ability with a quick swing and strong wrists, and his defense is good enough that he can be a net positive in the field. He also runs well. The only thing knocking him down is the question of whether his power will play with wood bats, as he carries just a .398 slugging percentage and one home run over 36 career games in the Cape Cod League and his power comes more through quick and strong wrists than it does through whip or loft in his swing. He'll likely join Bohm in the top half of the first round.
3. Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ)
Gorman has arguably the best power in the high school class, having won a pair of home run derbies on the showcase circuit and showing quick hands and a powerful swing that gets the job done with regularity. He sometimes struggles with breaking balls, which might push him to the second half of the first round, but he hit well on the showcase circuit and it's not a huge issue. His swing is long and he swings and misses some when he gets his hands going too late, but he is receptive to coaching and could be a power hitting starter at the next level. His defense is just alright, but he does have a chance to stay at third. He's committed to Arizona.
4. Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
Eierman isn't as safe a bet as the other two college hitters ahead of him, but he offers just as much ceiling as India. He had an excellent sophomore season in 2017, slashing .313/.431/.675 with 23 home runs, but he changed his approach this year to try to hit more home runs and it backfired, leading to a .292/.385/.525 line with ten home runs this year. Originally considered a shortstop prospect, he's now looking more like a third baseman, but he should have above average defense there. Scouts like his grinder mentality, so if he can get back to his old approach at the plate with pro coaching, he has the ability to be a power hitting, slick fielding third baseman. However, even with his old approach, he struck out 20.3% of the time as a sophomore, which could lead to problems down the road. He probably falls out of the first round, but not by too much.
5. Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
Magnolia High School, which sits just past the very edge of the subdivided northwestern Houston suburbs, might have two players picked in the first round in Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans is considered the slightly better prospect of the two, showing a clean swing, good power/contact balance, and good enough defense to stay at third base. Nothing really stands out about him, but he's competent across the board, and if a pro team can add some lift to his flat swing, he could have above average power while still getting on base at a good clip. He's committed to Kansas, where his brother plays.
Others: Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL), Nick Northcut (Mason HS, OH), Cory Acton (American Heritage HS, FL)
1. Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
Part of one of the best one-two punches in the middle of any lineup in college baseball, Bohm took off this year with 16 home runs and a .339/.436/.625 slash line, walking way more (39) than he struck out (28). Though he'll probably need a slight swing change to get to his power more often in pro ball, the power is real right now, and he is arguably the best present hitter in the class. He destroyed the Cape Cod League as well (5 HR, .351/.399/.513, 21/12 K/BB), and for a power hitter, it is very difficult to get the ball by him. His defense at third base is just adequate, and he might have to move to first base eventually, but he's got plenty of bat to profile there and could end up an All Star. He's unlikely to fall out of the top ten picks.
2. Jonathan India (Florida)
While it's hard to view Bohm as anything but the best third baseman in the class, Jonathan India is making it tough to call it a slam dunk. Despite facing SEC pitching, which is the toughest in the NCAA, he still slashed .364/.504/.733 with 18 home runs and more walks (49) than strikeouts (48) for the Gators. Those ridiculous numbers were the product of better pitch recognition and improved physical shape, and projects to impact the game in a lot of ways as a pro. While he will never have Bohm's power, he matches him in bat to ball ability with a quick swing and strong wrists, and his defense is good enough that he can be a net positive in the field. He also runs well. The only thing knocking him down is the question of whether his power will play with wood bats, as he carries just a .398 slugging percentage and one home run over 36 career games in the Cape Cod League and his power comes more through quick and strong wrists than it does through whip or loft in his swing. He'll likely join Bohm in the top half of the first round.
3. Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ)
Gorman has arguably the best power in the high school class, having won a pair of home run derbies on the showcase circuit and showing quick hands and a powerful swing that gets the job done with regularity. He sometimes struggles with breaking balls, which might push him to the second half of the first round, but he hit well on the showcase circuit and it's not a huge issue. His swing is long and he swings and misses some when he gets his hands going too late, but he is receptive to coaching and could be a power hitting starter at the next level. His defense is just alright, but he does have a chance to stay at third. He's committed to Arizona.
4. Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
Eierman isn't as safe a bet as the other two college hitters ahead of him, but he offers just as much ceiling as India. He had an excellent sophomore season in 2017, slashing .313/.431/.675 with 23 home runs, but he changed his approach this year to try to hit more home runs and it backfired, leading to a .292/.385/.525 line with ten home runs this year. Originally considered a shortstop prospect, he's now looking more like a third baseman, but he should have above average defense there. Scouts like his grinder mentality, so if he can get back to his old approach at the plate with pro coaching, he has the ability to be a power hitting, slick fielding third baseman. However, even with his old approach, he struck out 20.3% of the time as a sophomore, which could lead to problems down the road. He probably falls out of the first round, but not by too much.
5. Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
Magnolia High School, which sits just past the very edge of the subdivided northwestern Houston suburbs, might have two players picked in the first round in Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans is considered the slightly better prospect of the two, showing a clean swing, good power/contact balance, and good enough defense to stay at third base. Nothing really stands out about him, but he's competent across the board, and if a pro team can add some lift to his flat swing, he could have above average power while still getting on base at a good clip. He's committed to Kansas, where his brother plays.
Others: Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL), Nick Northcut (Mason HS, OH), Cory Acton (American Heritage HS, FL)
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