1-12: OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS (PA)
2-48: RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M
CBB-65: C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS (FL)
3-84: RHP Bryce Bonnin, Texas Tech
4-113: OF Mac Wainwright, St. Edward HS (OH)
5-143: RHP Joe Boyle, Notre Dame
The Reds had six picks and could afford to take some risks, so they went shooting for upside here with three high school hitters and three college arms, two of which are more known for their stuff than their command. They didn't pull off anything too funny, mostly picking up guys for around slot value, and so far they've signed five out of six. I didn't love any individual pick, but I liked a lot of them and I think they picked up a good class overall. It was also a fairly local draft, with three of the six growing up within 250 miles of Cincinnati in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Louisville.
Full index of team reviews.
1-12: OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS, PA (my rank: 13)
The Pittsburgh area isn't the biggest hotbed of prep talent in the country, though every few years, it pops up with some impressive prospects – Neil Walker in 2009, Alex Kirilloff in 2016, and now Austin Hendrick in 2020. Hendrick has been a famous name on the prep circuit for a long time, up there with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Drew Romo, and Blaze Jordan as one of the high school hitters scouts had the longest history with. Though he's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed six feet tall, he possesses elite bat speed that produces tremendous raw power from the left side, turning on baseballs so quickly that if you blink, you miss it. His hands and bat are so quick that even his low effort warmup swings can drive the ball deep into the gaps pretty easily, and when he turns on one, he can obliterate it. The hit tool is a bit more uncertain. There are many who have questioned his consistency with it, worrying about his ability to wait back on and recognize offspeed pitches, and since he turned 19 in June, he's one of the older players in the prep class – a bit of a double whammy. Others, however, will argue that those concerns are really only popping up due to the intense microscope that comes with being considered in the top half of the first round, and give him at least an average hit tool if not slightly better. He has tapped his power consistently on the showcase circuit against quality arms and given that he's coming from the Northeast rather than somewhere like Florida or California, that's particularly impressive. The Reds clearly are buying into the power and believe that he will indeed make enough contact to tap it, and if he reaches his lofty ceiling, he could be a 30+ home run guy and send some baseballs into the Ohio River. The defense isn't as flashy, but he's a good athlete with a strong arm who can be above average in right field, which certainly helps his all-around profile. It cost $4 million to lure him away from a Mississippi State commitment, but the Reds still saved $370,000 under slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
2-48: RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M (my rank: 83)
This is one pick I'm not sold on. I don't hate it or anything, as Roa is a very good pitcher, but I felt there were better options available at that point in the draft, though Roa does fit very well into this system. He reminds me a lot of Nationals first rounder Cade Cavalli, with slightly quieter stuff. A 6'4" righty, the Houston native has a low to mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, though at times he's been down closer to 90. Roa adds a very good set of secondary pitches that all flash above average to plus, including a top to bottom curveball, a more lateral slider, and an advanced changeup. He throws strikes with all four of his pitches from a clean delivery, giving him the look of a big league starter. However, he's been much more good than great during his career at Texas A&M, going 5-3 with a 4.26 ERA and a 93/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings over the last three seasons. Evaluators think the lack of performance stems from a two-fold lack of deception in his delivery and control (ability to throw strikes) that is ahead of his command (ability to hit spots). So while he doesn't often hurt himself with walks, he does hurt himself when he leaves pitches over the plate. The Reds think he's just a tweak or two away from putting it all together, with plenty of starter's traits all over the place, and he could end up a #2 or #3 starter if he reaches his full potential. He got $1.54 million to sign, which is full slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBB-65: C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS, FL (my rank: 77)
Most evaluators saw Jackson Miller on the fringes of the top 100 prospects this year (#104 on MLB Pipeline, #99 on Baseball America), but personally I thought he could have been a steal at that point in the draft, as evidenced by my ranking him 77th. The Reds had the same line of thinking that I did and pounced early, grabbing him at #65, and they could have a really valuable player here. Usually I'm not a huge fan of high school catchers, which meant I had Drew Romo near the back of the top 50 and pushed Daniel Susac and Corey Collins outside the top 100, but there's something about Miller I really like. The Tampa-area product has a really loose operation at the plate and some moderate projection in his 6' frame, and together I think it could lead to above average power down the line. There is some nice leverage in that left handed swing, and while he doesn't have the longest summer track record, he makes pretty consistent contact that will help him tap that power as he grows into it. Behind the plate, he's an average defender for now, but he shows the same ease of operation and looks like he could grow into an above average big league defender. High school catchers have a very, very spotty track record, which is why I don't typically like them, but Miller has such as well-rounded, projectable game that I give him as good a shot as any to buck the trend. At 65, it's definitely risky grabbing that high school catcher without loud tools, but I think this could pay off for them. Just finding a big league catcher that can hit at all is honestly a win these days. Committed to Wake Forest, he's the Reds' last unsigned pick and they have a little more than $1.3 million left in their bonus pool, enough to pay him about $275,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-84: RHP Bryce Bonnin, Texas Tech (my rank: 118)
Bryce Bonnin has been famous the longest in this Reds class, as he figured prominently into top five rounds conversations coming out of Barbers Hill High School just east of Houston in 2017. Instead, he followed through on a commitment to Arkansas, but the Razorbacks saw him as a reliever so he transferred to Texas Tech, where he would have the chance to start. Results were mixed there, and while he did strike out 27 to just six walks in 2020, he also had a 7.36 ERA, and he'll likely have to live with being a reliever long term. Drafting him well inside the top 100 picks though, the Reds might have hope he can hold out as a starter. He runs his fastball up to 97, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and gets great angle on it from a wide, crossfire delivery, making it tough to pick up. He also throws a plus slider that dives across the plate with great horizontal movement, and that pitch too can get into the upper 80's at times. His delivery is pretty herky jerky and features very long arm action, but the arm itself is really loose and streamlining him a bit could really help his well below average command. With a decent curveball and changeup in tow, Bonnin has what it takes to be a starter if you squint hard enough. However, he looks like a reliever and the as-is product could play way up in the bullpen, where he could just pitch off that fastball/slider combination for an inning or two at a time and not worry so much about spotting his pitches. Bonnin signed for $700,000, which was $21,900 below slot.
4-113: OF Mac Wainwright, St. Edward HS (unranked)
Wainwright grew up in the Cleveland area and attended St. Edward High School in Lakewood, but we'll still call him a semi-hometown guy from across the state. Columbus tends to be the mediator between any Cleveland-Cincinnati rivalry, and Wainwright held an Ohio State commitment in hand, so I think that tips the scale. Either way, Wainwright already has big fans in the Reds' scouting department and front office, and he has a chance to be a star in Cinncinati. He's a 6'1" right handed hitter with a loose, clean swing that allows you to project a lot of added power down the line. Additionally, he's a good runner with a good arm, with the potential to be decent in center field or above average in a corner spot. Injuries kept him away from most of the showcase events, so he isn't much of a known commodity and went unranked on Baseball America's top 500 prospects list, but the Reds have scouted him for a long time in their backyard and they're comfortable with the product. Not set to turn 18 until August, he's very young for a high school senior (more than a year younger than Hendrick), and the Reds will have to be patient with his development. He probably won't move through the minors as quickly as Hendrick or Miller, but he has the natural talent and athleticism to break out in a few seasons. Overall, it's more of a long term, sleeper name to watch. Wainwright signed at slot value for $512,400 rather than head to Ohio State.
5-143: RHP Joe Boyle, Notre Dame (my rank: 102)
If big stuff excites you, then this is the pick for you. The Reds started the draft all the way up the Ohio River in Pittsburgh, and they finished down the river with Louisville-area native Joe Boyle, who attended high school just an hour and a half down I-71 from Cincinnati in Goshen, Kentucky. The Notre Dame closer brings absolutely massive stuff, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 102. With a 6'7" frame and a crossfire delivery, he hides the ball well and gets great extension, creating extremely uncomfortable at bats and making his velocity play up even further. He has a slider as well, which ranges anywhere from average to plus-plus, as it flattens out at times but an also touch 90 miles an hour with sharp, bat missing bite. With two potentially plus-plus pitches, it's really easy to envision him as a closer, but he'll have to improve his command significantly. He's walked 48 batters in 36 career innings for the Fighting Irish, and it was a similar story in the Cape Cod League where he walked 14 in 22 innings. He struggles to repeat his arm slot and hasn't seen much improvement, if any at all, in his command in college. The Reds will have their work cut out for them on that front, but the good news is he's young for the class with an August birthday and he's also known to be very analytically inclined and a hard worker. His $500,000 signing bonus was $117,300 above slot.
Undrafted: OF Jacob Hurtubise, Army (unranked)
Another semi-hometown player, Hurtubise grew up in the Indianapolis suburb of Zionsville before heading east to West Point for school. He gradually hit for more and more impact throughout his Army career and topped out with a fantastic junior season in 2019, where he slashed .375/.541/.445 with 45 stolen bases and a 26/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. However, he pulled a hamstring in 2020 and we only got to see him for five games. He employs an extremely advanced approach at the plate that enables him to stay in control his own at bats even against advanced pitching, and from there he makes consistent line drive contact around the field. Hurtubise's plus speed enables him to turn leg out extra base hits and steal lots of bases (105 in his career) as well. He's been working to get bigger and stronger, though the overall projection is that of a fourth or fifth outfielder.
Undrafted: SS Gus Steiger, South Sakota State (unranked)
Steiger has been as steady as they come at South Dakota State, slashing .319/.367/.435 with seven home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 92/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games over his career. He's a relatively aggressive hitter who doesn't walk much, but he makes plenty of hard contact to keep his strikeouts reasonably low. He'll never be a power hitter but there's some reasonable pop in there as well that should enable him to hit for some impact in pro ball. Overall, it's an average offensive profile, bu the selling point is his above average glove that will enable him to stick at shortstop long term. It buys his bat some slack and helps the Minneapolis-area native project as a utility infielder down the road.
Showing posts with label Bryce Bonnin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bryce Bonnin. Show all posts
Tuesday, July 7, 2020
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs
First 5 rounds: Brendon Little (1-27), Alex Lange (1-30), Cory Abbott (2-67), Keegan Thompson (3-105), Erich Uelmen (4-135), Nelson Velazquez (5-165)
Also notable: Jeremiah Estrada (6-195), Ricky Tyler Thomas (7-225), Bryce Bonnin (26-795), Hunter Ruth (32-975)
The Cubs leaned on pitching here, taking pitchers with their first five picks, then adding two more with their seventh and eighth picks. Some of their biggest successes have been hitters (Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber), but they shifted focus this year and got lots of different kinds of pitchers, including three intriguing high-upside college arms.
1-27: LHP Brendon Little (my rank: 44)
Little came into the season the top JuCo arm available, only to see fellow Florida arm Nate Pearson (1-29, Blue Jays) pass him on the JuCo lists. However, Little ended up getting drafted two picks before Pearson anyways, and I'm personally not a big fan of the pick. Little is a well-built 6'2" lefty, one who can sit in the mid 90's out of the bullpen with a big breaking curveball and a promising changeup, but he's more low 90's as a starter. His fastball is somewhat straight since he comes straight over the top, and he has struggled with command, so I think he's best off in relief, but the Cubs are an organization that knows what they are doing and could make it work with Little as a starter. Personally, I see him as a lefty set-up man down the line. Little signed for $2.2 million, which is $173,300 below slot.
1-30: RHP Alex Lange (my rank: 16)
Lange's stock slowly faded all season long, but I liked him from the beginning and I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter for the Cubs. The LSU ace was amazing as a freshman (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), not so great as a sophomore (8-4, 3.79, 1.26, 125/49), and settled somewhere in between this year as a junior (10-5, 2.97, 1.24, 150/48). Lange flashed the dominance he had as a freshman plenty of times this year, but he also had quite a few starts where he looked like his sophomore self and was closer to average. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's as opposed to the mid 90's he threw as a freshman, but his tight curveball rivals that of Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright for the best in the class. He also throws a hard changeup with some sink, giving him a good chance to be a mid-rotation starter. If the Cubs can bring back that freshman velocity he had and get him more consistent with his command (he kicks out with his delivery and often fails to come back on line), there's a chance he could be a #2 starter. Lange has not signed yet.
2-67: RHP Cory Abbott (unranked)
Abbott was the first player drafted that I had not heard of, though he came in with the #187 ranking on MLB.com and the #149 spot at Baseball America. He was much more good than great during his first two seasons at Loyola Marymount, but he made a few adjustments and had a massive breakout in 2017, going 11-2 with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 130 batters in 98.1 innings. On March 25th, he threw a perfect game against Brigham Young. His long arm action creates a deceptive delivery, and he throws a low 90's fastball and a solid slider. He might be better off in relief, where his two pitches can play up. Abbott signed for $901,900, which is full slot value for the 67th pick.
3-105: RHP Keegan Thompson (my rank: 129)
Thompson, who missed the 2016 season with Tommy John surgery, is an "is what he is" type of pitcher now as a 22 year old. He has a high floor, having gone 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP while walking just 17 batters in 93.1 innings for Auburn this year, and because he's still shaking off the Tommy John rust, he has sat anywhere from 87 to 93 with his fastball. He has a very good curveball and a solid changeup, and his good command will help him play up as a back-end starter at the major league level, assuming he can stay healthy. Thompson signed for $511,900, which is full slot value for the 105th pick.
6-195: RHP Jeremiah Estrada (my rank: 102)
Estrada will require an overslot bonus if he signs at all here, and I doubt he signs for anything less than $250,000 to $300,000 over slot. Estrada began the season as a top 50 prospect by showing a low 90's fastball from an easy delivery, as well as a plus changeup and a decent curveball over the summer. However, the California high schooler was not the same pitcher this spring, as his fastball straightened out and dropped in velocity, his changeup played closer to average, and his curveball became more hittable when it began popping out of his hand early. He hasn't signed yet and is committed to UCLA, where he could rebuild his draft stock.
26-795: RHP Bryce Bonnin (my rank: 82)
Bonnin, a high school righty from Texas, almost certainly doesn't sign here and ends up attending Arkansas. Coming from Mont Belvieu, Texas, an oil refinery town just outside of the Houston suburbs, Bonnin's long arm action produces deceptive, sinking fastballs in the low 90's as well as a slider that has flashed plus. His delivery and command will need to be cleaned up, but once that happens, he has a high ceiling. Not that it will help his pitching, but Bonnin is a very good hitter and will play both ways at Arkansas.
Others: 4th rounder Erich Uelmen was Cal Poly's ace this year, going 4-8 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 100 and walking 23 in 98.1 innings. He has a plus sinking fastball in the low 90's that he commands well, but his slider is average and he may not have a full enough arsenal to stick in the rotation. 5th rounder Nelson Velazquez, a high schooler from Puerto Rico, shows a high ceiling at the plate but also a low floor, and he'll be a project to develop, but the pure athleticism and tools are there. 7th rounder Ricky Tyler Thomas had an underwhelming season for Fresno State this year, going 8-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, but he did strike out 100 in 90.2 innings and has a raw package teams like. His fastball sat in the upper 80's this year, with his plus changeup and average breaking ball taking a step back, but if he's converted to relief, he could regain his big stuff and work through the minors quickly, assuming he gets his command together. 32nd rounder Hunter Ruth ranked 120th on my list, but the Florida high schooler probably won't sign here and will instead stay in his hometown to join the Florida Gators. He went down with Tommy John surgery in April, but when he's healthy, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup, so he could come out of Florida as a top prospect.
Also notable: Jeremiah Estrada (6-195), Ricky Tyler Thomas (7-225), Bryce Bonnin (26-795), Hunter Ruth (32-975)
The Cubs leaned on pitching here, taking pitchers with their first five picks, then adding two more with their seventh and eighth picks. Some of their biggest successes have been hitters (Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber), but they shifted focus this year and got lots of different kinds of pitchers, including three intriguing high-upside college arms.
1-27: LHP Brendon Little (my rank: 44)
Little came into the season the top JuCo arm available, only to see fellow Florida arm Nate Pearson (1-29, Blue Jays) pass him on the JuCo lists. However, Little ended up getting drafted two picks before Pearson anyways, and I'm personally not a big fan of the pick. Little is a well-built 6'2" lefty, one who can sit in the mid 90's out of the bullpen with a big breaking curveball and a promising changeup, but he's more low 90's as a starter. His fastball is somewhat straight since he comes straight over the top, and he has struggled with command, so I think he's best off in relief, but the Cubs are an organization that knows what they are doing and could make it work with Little as a starter. Personally, I see him as a lefty set-up man down the line. Little signed for $2.2 million, which is $173,300 below slot.
1-30: RHP Alex Lange (my rank: 16)
Lange's stock slowly faded all season long, but I liked him from the beginning and I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter for the Cubs. The LSU ace was amazing as a freshman (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), not so great as a sophomore (8-4, 3.79, 1.26, 125/49), and settled somewhere in between this year as a junior (10-5, 2.97, 1.24, 150/48). Lange flashed the dominance he had as a freshman plenty of times this year, but he also had quite a few starts where he looked like his sophomore self and was closer to average. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's as opposed to the mid 90's he threw as a freshman, but his tight curveball rivals that of Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright for the best in the class. He also throws a hard changeup with some sink, giving him a good chance to be a mid-rotation starter. If the Cubs can bring back that freshman velocity he had and get him more consistent with his command (he kicks out with his delivery and often fails to come back on line), there's a chance he could be a #2 starter. Lange has not signed yet.
2-67: RHP Cory Abbott (unranked)
Abbott was the first player drafted that I had not heard of, though he came in with the #187 ranking on MLB.com and the #149 spot at Baseball America. He was much more good than great during his first two seasons at Loyola Marymount, but he made a few adjustments and had a massive breakout in 2017, going 11-2 with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 130 batters in 98.1 innings. On March 25th, he threw a perfect game against Brigham Young. His long arm action creates a deceptive delivery, and he throws a low 90's fastball and a solid slider. He might be better off in relief, where his two pitches can play up. Abbott signed for $901,900, which is full slot value for the 67th pick.
3-105: RHP Keegan Thompson (my rank: 129)
Thompson, who missed the 2016 season with Tommy John surgery, is an "is what he is" type of pitcher now as a 22 year old. He has a high floor, having gone 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP while walking just 17 batters in 93.1 innings for Auburn this year, and because he's still shaking off the Tommy John rust, he has sat anywhere from 87 to 93 with his fastball. He has a very good curveball and a solid changeup, and his good command will help him play up as a back-end starter at the major league level, assuming he can stay healthy. Thompson signed for $511,900, which is full slot value for the 105th pick.
6-195: RHP Jeremiah Estrada (my rank: 102)
Estrada will require an overslot bonus if he signs at all here, and I doubt he signs for anything less than $250,000 to $300,000 over slot. Estrada began the season as a top 50 prospect by showing a low 90's fastball from an easy delivery, as well as a plus changeup and a decent curveball over the summer. However, the California high schooler was not the same pitcher this spring, as his fastball straightened out and dropped in velocity, his changeup played closer to average, and his curveball became more hittable when it began popping out of his hand early. He hasn't signed yet and is committed to UCLA, where he could rebuild his draft stock.
26-795: RHP Bryce Bonnin (my rank: 82)
Bonnin, a high school righty from Texas, almost certainly doesn't sign here and ends up attending Arkansas. Coming from Mont Belvieu, Texas, an oil refinery town just outside of the Houston suburbs, Bonnin's long arm action produces deceptive, sinking fastballs in the low 90's as well as a slider that has flashed plus. His delivery and command will need to be cleaned up, but once that happens, he has a high ceiling. Not that it will help his pitching, but Bonnin is a very good hitter and will play both ways at Arkansas.
Others: 4th rounder Erich Uelmen was Cal Poly's ace this year, going 4-8 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 100 and walking 23 in 98.1 innings. He has a plus sinking fastball in the low 90's that he commands well, but his slider is average and he may not have a full enough arsenal to stick in the rotation. 5th rounder Nelson Velazquez, a high schooler from Puerto Rico, shows a high ceiling at the plate but also a low floor, and he'll be a project to develop, but the pure athleticism and tools are there. 7th rounder Ricky Tyler Thomas had an underwhelming season for Fresno State this year, going 8-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, but he did strike out 100 in 90.2 innings and has a raw package teams like. His fastball sat in the upper 80's this year, with his plus changeup and average breaking ball taking a step back, but if he's converted to relief, he could regain his big stuff and work through the minors quickly, assuming he gets his command together. 32nd rounder Hunter Ruth ranked 120th on my list, but the Florida high schooler probably won't sign here and will instead stay in his hometown to join the Florida Gators. He went down with Tommy John surgery in April, but when he's healthy, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup, so he could come out of Florida as a top prospect.
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