Wednesday, July 5, 2017

2017 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

First 5 rounds: Brendon Little (1-27), Alex Lange (1-30), Cory Abbott (2-67), Keegan Thompson (3-105), Erich Uelmen (4-135), Nelson Velazquez (5-165)
Also notable: Jeremiah Estrada (6-195), Ricky Tyler Thomas (7-225), Bryce Bonnin (26-795), Hunter Ruth (32-975)

The Cubs leaned on pitching here, taking pitchers with their first five picks, then adding two more with their seventh and eighth picks. Some of their biggest successes have been hitters (Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber), but they shifted focus this year and got lots of different kinds of pitchers, including three intriguing high-upside college arms.

1-27: LHP Brendon Little (my rank: 44)
Little came into the season the top JuCo arm available, only to see fellow Florida arm Nate Pearson (1-29, Blue Jays) pass him on the JuCo lists. However, Little ended up getting drafted two picks before Pearson anyways, and I'm personally not a big fan of the pick. Little is a well-built 6'2" lefty, one who can sit in the mid 90's out of the bullpen with a big breaking curveball and a promising changeup, but he's more low 90's as a starter. His fastball is somewhat straight since he comes straight over the top, and he has struggled with command, so I think he's best off in relief, but the Cubs are an organization that knows what they are doing and could make it work with Little as a starter. Personally, I see him as a lefty set-up man down the line. Little signed for $2.2 million, which is $173,300 below slot.

1-30: RHP Alex Lange (my rank: 16)
Lange's stock slowly faded all season long, but I liked him from the beginning and I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter for the Cubs. The LSU ace was amazing as a freshman (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), not so great as a sophomore (8-4, 3.79, 1.26, 125/49), and settled somewhere in between this year as a junior (10-5, 2.97, 1.24, 150/48). Lange flashed the dominance he had as a freshman plenty of times this year, but he also had quite a few starts where he looked like his sophomore self and was closer to average. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's as opposed to the mid 90's he threw as a freshman, but his tight curveball rivals that of Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright for the best in the class. He also throws a hard changeup with some sink, giving him a good chance to be a mid-rotation starter. If the Cubs can bring back that freshman velocity he had and get him more consistent with his command (he kicks out with his delivery and often fails to come back on line), there's a chance he could be a #2 starter. Lange has not signed yet.

2-67: RHP Cory Abbott (unranked)
Abbott was the first player drafted that I had not heard of, though he came in with the #187 ranking on MLB.com and the #149 spot at Baseball America. He was much more good than great during his first two seasons at Loyola Marymount, but he made a few adjustments and had a massive breakout in 2017, going 11-2 with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 130 batters in 98.1 innings. On March 25th, he threw a perfect game against Brigham Young. His long arm action creates a deceptive delivery, and he throws a low 90's fastball and a solid slider. He might be better off in relief, where his two pitches can play up. Abbott signed for $901,900, which is full slot value for the 67th pick.

3-105: RHP Keegan Thompson (my rank: 129)
Thompson, who missed the 2016 season with Tommy John surgery, is an "is what he is" type of pitcher now as a 22 year old. He has a high floor, having gone 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP while walking just 17 batters in 93.1 innings for Auburn this year, and because he's still shaking off the Tommy John rust, he has sat anywhere from 87 to 93 with his fastball. He has a very good curveball and a solid changeup, and his good command will help him play up as a back-end starter at the major league level, assuming he can stay healthy. Thompson signed for $511,900, which is full slot value for the 105th pick.

6-195: RHP Jeremiah Estrada (my rank: 102)
Estrada will require an overslot bonus if he signs at all here, and I doubt he signs for anything less than $250,000 to $300,000 over slot. Estrada began the season as a top 50 prospect by showing a low 90's fastball from an easy delivery, as well as a plus changeup and a decent curveball over the summer. However, the California high schooler was not the same pitcher this spring, as his fastball straightened out and dropped in velocity, his changeup played closer to average, and his curveball became more hittable when it began popping out of his hand early. He hasn't signed yet and is committed to UCLA, where he could rebuild his draft stock.

26-795: RHP Bryce Bonnin (my rank: 82)
Bonnin, a high school righty from Texas, almost certainly doesn't sign here and ends up attending Arkansas. Coming from Mont Belvieu, Texas, an oil refinery town just outside of the Houston suburbs, Bonnin's long arm action produces deceptive, sinking fastballs in the low 90's as well as a slider that has flashed plus. His delivery and command will need to be cleaned up, but once that happens, he has a high ceiling. Not that it will help his pitching, but Bonnin is a very good hitter and will play both ways at Arkansas.

Others: 4th rounder Erich Uelmen was Cal Poly's ace this year, going 4-8 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 100 and walking 23 in 98.1 innings. He has a plus sinking fastball in the low 90's that he commands well, but his slider is average and he may not have a full enough arsenal to stick in the rotation. 5th rounder Nelson Velazquez, a high schooler from Puerto Rico, shows a high ceiling at the plate but also a low floor, and he'll be a project to develop, but the pure athleticism and tools are there. 7th rounder Ricky Tyler Thomas had an underwhelming season for Fresno State this year, going 8-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, but he did strike out 100 in 90.2 innings and has a raw package teams like. His fastball sat in the upper 80's this year, with his plus changeup and average breaking ball taking a step back, but if he's converted to relief, he could regain his big stuff and work through the minors quickly, assuming he gets his command together. 32nd rounder Hunter Ruth ranked 120th on my list, but the Florida high schooler probably won't sign here and will instead stay in his hometown to join the Florida Gators. He went down with Tommy John surgery in April, but when he's healthy, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup, so he could come out of Florida as a top prospect.

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