Monday, July 31, 2017

Dodgers Shock Baseball, Add Yu Darvish at Last Minute

Dodgers Get: Yu Darvish (6-9, 4.01 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 148/45 K/BB, Age 30)
Rangers Get: Willie Calhoun (23 HR, 67 RBI, .298 AVG, 3 SB, 131 wRC+ at AAA, Age 22)
Brendon Davis (9 HR, 43 RBI, .241 AVG, 3 SB, 115 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A, Age 20)
A.J. Alexy (2-6, 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 86/37 K/BB at Class A, Age 19

If somebody other than the Dodgers wants to win the National League pennant, they're really going to have to earn it. The best team in baseball just got much better, adding Tony Cingrani, Tony Watson, and Yu Darvish in separate trades. Just to give you a feel for how good this team is, Brock Stewart is the likely man out of the rotation and he has yet to give up an earned run in 16.2 innings this season. Darvish joins Alex Wood (2.38 ERA, 0.99 WHIP), Rich Hill (3.35 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Hyun-Jin Ryu (3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), Kenta Maeda (4.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), and of course, an injured Clayton Kershaw (2.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) in the Dodgers' super-rotation. Once Kershaw returns, the next man out will probably be Ryu, who I could see shifted to a bullpen role. Darvish's ERA this year is 4.01, which is a career worst, and his 3.98 FIP and 3.81 xFIP aren't much better, but he also allowed ten runs in his last start, which bumped his ERA up from 3.44. Moving from Texas to Los Angeles will help his numbers, as the Dodgers have better defense and a better catcher when it comes to pitch framing, so expect a hot Darvish down the stretch. He'll be a free agent after the season, but the Dodgers' are all-in for 2017 and got him without giving up Walker Buehler, Alex Verdugo, Yadier Alvarez, etc. For his career, Darvish is 52-39 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 960 and walking 294 in 782.2 innings.

The main prospect going back to Texas is AAA second baseman/outfielder Willie Calhoun. The 22 year old was drafted in the fourth round out of Yavapai Junior College in Arizona in 2015, and he shot through the minors, reaching AA in 2016 and AAA in 2017. He's been very good with Oklahoma City this year, slashing .298/.357/.574 with 23 home runs and just 49 strikeouts in 99 games. It's an offense-heavy league, but his wRC+ still comes out to a very good 131. He'll be ready for a major league trial soon, where he could be a multi-category contributor as an above average major league hitter despite being just 5'8". Brendon Davis was drafted the fifth round out of a California high school in 2015, and while he hasn't wowed with his production, he's been good enough, slashing .245/.357/.403 with eight home runs in 86 games for Class A Great Lakes before a promotion to High Class A Rancho Cucamonga. So far in High A, he's slashed .200/.273/.400 with one home run in eight games, but it's a small sample size and at 20 years old, he has time to adjust. He has a high ceiling, as shown by his big bad speed and feel for hitting, but he strikes out a ton (30.8% of the time this year) and will have to tone down his approach. A.J. Alexy was just drafted in the eleventh round in 2016 out of a Pennsylvania high school, and he's quickly adapted to pro ball. Pitching for Class A Great Lakes at just 19 years old this year, he has a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through 19 starts, striking out 86 and walking 37 in 73.2 innings. He works with erratic fastball velocity, anywhere from 88 to 93, and throws a solid curveball and changeup. If everything works out, the 6'4" righty could wind up a useful starting pitcher for the Rangers.

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